Bitcoin Forum

One of the things often touted about Bitcoin is that everyone who has held it for one year has seen a profit regardless of when they bought.  With the declines we've seen over the last 10 months, that statement is in danger of no longer being accurate.  This is in spite of wave after wave of good news and increased adoption.  As others have recently pointed out, mining profitability is currently extremely low, reminding some of us of the December 2011 time period.  Is the rubber band about to snap, or are we about to commence liftoff?

Feel free to post your arguments for or against a massive end of the year rally.

Personally I think we have a few weeks of this left...keep your eye on the 3 day KDJ for a <20 cross over around Oct 12-19.

It's too young and small to expect any pattern to be repeating. If it was a few decades old then perhaps we'd have an idea based on past performance. 

This wasn't the case in 2011. If you bought in near the peak, it took between 17 and 20 months before you broke even. Take a look at the Mt. Gox chart for yourself: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd

My counterargument for a rally is that too many people expect a massive one, but nobody really buys.

This was me...my first purchase was $10,000 worth of bitcoins at $17 each.

I sold at the 17 month point.

Why 40 days and not 60 or 2000? There are no reasons to think in 40 days nothing interesting will happen. What I feel is we'll keep going down slowly for a long period of time before we see anything near 700 again.

Why should this downtrend continue for a long period of time? You buying in low is not a market factor.

A massive rally near year end seems unrealistic to me. We must enter a stabilization / bottom phase first. I think we are very close to capitulation that will mark the start for the stabilization phase. By stabilization I mean a slow rise up to the $600 level. I expect that the stabilization phase will take at least a year.

So from my point of view, more patience is needed. But after that I expect a big rise that will reward the wait.

ya.ya.yo!

lmao @ bell curve

BUT all the weak hands have already sold and when the price rises they will be bringing the fiat back + more coins are in the hands of holders now.

I chose probably because I'm hopeful, but I wouldn't be surprised if we broke the 12 month rule.
A ton of new money will need to enter the exchanges for the price to rise.

I'll bet you 1BTC that we won't see a new ATH by the end of the year.



Sorry guys, but this is the first year where you will not profit from holding BTC... all "patterns" you guys are relying on will be broken, and it started with the bullshit 123 day bubble cycle.


Bitcoin is never predictable. You want to become rich off BTC? Stop acting like you know what will happen, and stop following the charts. Maybe we'll see the next ATH after the 2016 block halving... but to expect one before the end of the year is ludicrous

A bunch of anonymous forum posters are telling us bitcoin is dead again.  Time to dump our coins  ::)

The past has nothing to do with the future.

-B-

I hope your right. Ive given up on trying to figure out what bitcoin is going to do. Im a hodler and thats about it. Most of my coins were mined, so the only cost is electricity, so who knows what my "buy in" cost is, it should be pretty low. My only regret is not selling more near the ATH. Well, at least i was able to take advantage of it..

Lets hope this fall and winter is good for btc...

First thing I noticed too, pretty nice.

Also to the one who said many people expect a rally, but no one is buying. No one of them is buying because they already have bought all they can afford. The adoption has to come from outside the bitcoin system. And judging by the charts, there are new people adopting bitcoin every day. Adoption is happening, it's just not yet enough to battle the selloff from miners and merchants.

My argument against it: The USD rally will probably continue after retracing the move from 80 to 86 (on the USD index).

A strong USD means a strong CNY and weaker oil, gold and BTC.

Mostly "I don't know" indicates people are lack of conficence right now. The price might still go down.  :-\ :-[

As of this posting, the distribution of votes is perfectly symmetrical! It seems I don't know is the most popular answer, as it should be  ;)

And to answer the OP, I think price is significantly behind new infrastructure, businesses, investment, and use cases for Bitcoin that have developed since the last bubble. Not sure about 40 days, but I would guess the bottom is near.

agreed I dont think we will break $340..... if we do though i will start to get worried. As someone who has lived though a few rises, it always surprises you with its suddenness and speed.

Still think we will hit new ATH by the end of the year.

3 months to the end of the year. I still think that January 1st 2014 will be significantly lower than January 1st 2014. At about 1/4 of the price...

Even the permabulls don't expect to see an ATH this year!

20 days until liftoff?   ???

I hung on to this argument for awhile, but it increasingly looks like November 2014 will break the streak.  I am surprised, I thought we would move up after the US Marshall's sale of the silk road coins, but it has pretty much been a straight line decline since then.

Even if I believe the whole Chinese exchanges manufacturing balances theory, it still undermines bitcoin in a very important way, i.e. the number of coins are not fixed, they are the amount extant plus whatever the Chinese exchanges can convince people they have.

Maybe 2015?

those fiat bubbles can't last though.

Inflation of bitcoin is still quite high, because of the amount of bitcoins generated every day is high relative to the amount of bitcoin in existence. And with mining profitability being so low currently, many miners may be forced to sell most or all of their mined coins right away in order to pay their power bills. Not to mention early adopters probably still buying stuff at the many new merchants that are available, which will immediately sell off their bitcoin. So the selling pressure is enormous right now, and that's not a bad thing per se, but it's just hard for the demand to catch up to it at this point in time.

However, the recent jump in price and increase in volume shows that there is in fact interest in bitcoin and it may be reaching the point where demand outgrows supply for a while.


people should stick to the "if i'm not the sole owner of the private key, it's not my bitcoin" more. It's the only way to avoid fractional reserve practice and that is one of the reasons why bitcoin is valuable.

Fractional reserve kills currency.

Liftoff?

Not yet..  Just getting ready.