Feel free to post your arguments for or against a massive end of the year rally.
My argument against it: The USD rally will probably continue after retracing the move from 80 to 86 (on the USD index).
A strong USD means a strong CNY and weaker oil, gold and BTC.
those fiat bubbles can't last though.
Inflation of bitcoin is still quite high, because of the amount of bitcoins generated every day is high relative to the amount of bitcoin in existence. And with mining profitability being so low currently, many miners may be forced to sell most or all of their mined coins right away in order to pay their power bills. Not to mention early adopters probably still buying stuff at the many new merchants that are available, which will immediately sell off their bitcoin. So the selling pressure is enormous right now, and that's not a bad thing per se, but it's just hard for the demand to catch up to it at this point in time.
However, the recent jump in price and increase in volume shows that there is in fact interest in bitcoin and it may be reaching the point where demand outgrows supply for a while.
I hung on to this argument for awhile, but it increasingly looks like November 2014 will break the streak. I am surprised, I thought we would move up after the US Marshall's sale of the silk road coins, but it has pretty much been a straight line decline since then.
Even if I believe the whole Chinese exchanges manufacturing balances theory, it still undermines bitcoin in a very important way, i.e. the number of coins are not fixed, they are the amount extant plus whatever the Chinese exchanges can convince people they have.
Maybe 2015?
people should stick to the "if i'm not the sole owner of the private key, it's not my bitcoin" more. It's the only way to avoid fractional reserve practice and that is one of the reasons why bitcoin is valuable.
Fractional reserve kills currency.
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