Bitcoin Forum

Originally, when bitcoin declined from $30's to $2's, I really wasn't ready to start pouring money into it as the dropping seemed to be never ending.

Yeah, it is easy to say now, you didn't buy bitcoin at $2.00. Well, at that time you probably wouldn't either.

I decided at that time I would wait for a stable long term price to put my money in. My idea was that if the price would hold stable for at least a year and showed no signs of dropping, that was the best time to invest. This way you limit your losses.

Well, I purposely stopped watching bitcoin for a couple of years, because it was a waste of time to me to speculate. I then lost interest in it and didn't think much about bitcoin.

However, when the price rose to $1000, I was looking at the bitcoin price chart. It was clear that the best time to have bought bitcoin would have been around $10-13. This was a stable long term price where you could buy in and minimize your losses with possible sustainable growth.

So the question is, when should you buy in now?

If you want to minimize losses the best time to buy in is after the price is stable long term, like a year. This may be in the $20-$100 range in my opinion. But what ever it is, you're better off waiting for the price to stabilize long term.

Try and control urges to buy in at the bottom or trying to time your buys.

What if bitcoin stays low like this forever and never goes back to ATH?  :'(

In my opinion you have to look at bitcoin as any investment. You should really only expect to gain 5-10% a year.

When bitcoin bubbles and shoots really high, that is when you sell.

There are too many bitcoins available and the market is too liquid to support ATH's long term. They will eventually fall back down to a sustainable level.

Following bitcion from $10 in 2013, it should really have only grown to about $20 at this point. Being that it has grown faster because of all the media from the $1000 bubble, you have to factor in accelerated growth. That is why I value bitcoins somewhere between $20-$100.

There are only two alternatives for BTC futur :
-moon if it's a success
-Mariana trench otherwise

I was writing exactly what Seldar just said.

Let s think: there will only be 21 million BTC. At $20 each, market cap would be mere $420 million. Way to few to provide adequate market depth or to allow big sum business. At $10K USD per BTC we would have $210 billion. And $2.1 trillion at $100K each. Now that would be capable to sustain BTC as gross payment media.

So that s it. BTC MUST be a full success AND moon price to survive. Otherwise it will simply die. iMHO.

To the moon is what the majority believes in. :)

they still haven't cracked the protocol.

what's all the fuss?

$20 may have been reasonable before the halving but it is clear that the half was not factored in just like we are not buying now based upon the 2016 halving.

We should be in the $300 range.

Wouldn't quantum computers (once it fine tuned and accessable) just obliterate bitcoin off the map?

no, they still can't crack a 256 bit key

Protocal dont mean shit without demand


If no one puts money into bitcoin, the price will stay low and the people who got in late 2013 lost a LOT of purchasing power, that's the fuss.


I dont buy this idea that bitcoin can only go to the moon or $0. My biggest fear was bitcoin stabilizing at a low price which seems to be happening now. Even if the demand for bitcoin never picks up and it ends up as a failed experiment, it wont necessarily go to $0 because of the bagholders who will keep holding and the small amount of transactions that could still continue through high profile merchants.

The price will never become stable with manipulator  :P

yeah because the 30$ bagholders are so much worse off as you...

it's funny people rather have 100% of nothing instead of missing out on 50% of something

see you and your sound investment advice at the 3000$ post-nextath "crash" price

This is so very true. Anyone jumping on here with 3 posts shouting about how Edward50 is an idiot, are absolutely delusional. He managed risk far better than the majority of people in this or any other market ever will.

It's not about winning big, its about not going home. Capital preservation. The delirious trader types don't seem to have the first idea about this.

Hope you catch a break this time Edward50.

Oh ed. When we drop from 10k to 3k, you will spin some yarn about how you managed risk well during this past year. Then you will suggest that people not buy in until 200-1000.

Figure out how high you think the price will go eventually, how much money you want in the end, and then get the required number of coins by whatever means. Then sit back and watch. It's just too sad to see you repeat this cycle.

Not you again.

You are giving advice to others on when to buy in when you have managed to completely miss one of the greatest bull markets in human history.

Worse you have argued wrongly that the price would fall at price levels literally hundreds of times lower than today and may have deterred some potential early adopting bitcoiners from participating.

What do you think you are adding to this forum?

On this occasion sgbett I am going to have to respectfully disagree with you (for the first time).

that's my point people are afraid to only win small so they rather win nothing at all.

I'm not saying he's an idiot... and I can certainly imagine not buying at 2 dollar seemed like a wise thing to do as the survival of bitcoin was even more questionable at the time.

But especially because fundamentals and the survivability of bitcoin has increased I think conjuring buy in advice based on the 2011 situation is wrong.

A year stability before buying in? That will be when bitcoin is mainstream so it won't be as an investor but  as a user.

quote: Try and control urges to buy in at the bottom or trying to time your buys

First time ever I hear buying at THE bottom is a bad thing.

I didn't want to come over so harsh but lurking on these forums might have deformed my communication skills.
 

By the time they do, this coin will be valueless

wow! such foresight, much insight!

I wrote this in October, but the points are still valid. If you want to minimize your losses then wait for a long term stable price to buy in. I'm still predicting $20-100, but more like $20-50 now.

Bitcoin will stabilize and from that point slowly grow. It has to deflate from the China issues and the exchange issues.

Unless you want to gamble, I wouldn't buy until the price is stable for a very long time, over a year. Like it was around $8-$12 dollars.

The community is small yet large enough that the price should stabilize and trade within like a $10 dollar range.

At $20 that would be 50% price swings. Even $50 is 20% swings! Hardly stable.

You guys are terrible traders.  

1.  Establish bullish trend.  Look for a bounce off support level
2.  Buy on dip but use only a % of your capital
3.  Put a stop where the support is
4.  If you are correct about trend add to position on dips and trail your stop
5.  If you are wrong you only lose a little.  At this time re evaluate and possibly go short instead

But my advice is to stay away from Bitcoin because no liquidity and too much slippage.  Exchanges are unregulated.  Difficult to short and no options for hedging. IOW it sucks for trading

Ed do you realistically think that bitcoin could possibly settle over the next, let's say 20 years, of modest growth with average 5-10% growth per year? How do you respond to the argument that in 20-30 years, it is highly likely that we will have seen one of two outcomes play out: either LOTS of people use it, or virtually NOBODY uses it because something better has come along. Why on earth do you assume that some in-between outcome is likely, or even desired? Why do you assume bitcoin should behave like any other investment? You can't even calculate a P/E ratio.

I'm backing up the truck and loading up as we speak.

Probably more like 2-3 years on that.

You may be right, although it is difficult to know just how long it will take.

I'm curious to know whether Ed has thought of an answer to my question from a few posts back.

Indeed.   That's about the time scale involved to judge whether bitcoin is a success or a failure.
This is why I put some coins aside for the very long time.  I see them as a lottery ticket I bought of which the drawing is 20 years from now or so.  High chance it will be worth nothing, small chance that it will be worth a lot.  That's in the nature of lottery tickets.

The short term price swings on the scale of a few years have not much to do with it.

Of course, I could start trading, and "sell high and buy low"  but I'm no good at that, and it takes too much time and attention.  Moreover, I believe that the bitcoin price is fundamentally unpredictable as it is determined mainly by belief (the real fundamentals of bitcoin are now in the single or double digits as a currency).  Belief is highly volatile.

If it goes to zero, too bad, that's what happens with lottery tickets.  You expect this.  But if it goes to the moon (in 20-30 years from now), I have a great retirement :-)

Oh had I read this quote a year ago..........