So when should you buy in. My thoughts from a long term bear.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I wrote this in October, but the points are still valid. If you want to minimize your losses then wait for a long term stable price to buy in. I'm still predicting $20-100, but more like $20-50 now.

Bitcoin will stabilize and from that point slowly grow. It has to deflate from the China issues and the exchange issues.

Unless you want to gamble, I wouldn't buy until the price is stable for a very long time, over a year. Like it was around $8-$12 dollars.

The community is small yet large enough that the price should stabilize and trade within like a $10 dollar range.

At $20 that would be 50% price swings. Even $50 is 20% swings! Hardly stable.

[1715074615]

1715074615

[twiifm]

You guys are terrible traders.  

1.  Establish bullish trend.  Look for a bounce off support level
2.  Buy on dip but use only a % of your capital
3.  Put a stop where the support is
4.  If you are correct about trend add to position on dips and trail your stop
5.  If you are wrong you only lose a little.  At this time re evaluate and possibly go short instead

But my advice is to stay away from Bitcoin because no liquidity and too much slippage.  Exchanges are unregulated.  Difficult to short and no options for hedging. IOW it sucks for trading

[BTCtrader71]

What if bitcoin stays low like this forever and never goes back to ATH?  

In my opinion you have to look at bitcoin as any investment. You should really only expect to gain 5-10% a year.

Ed do you realistically think that bitcoin could possibly settle over the next, let's say 20 years, of modest growth with average 5-10% growth per year? How do you respond to the argument that in 20-30 years, it is highly likely that we will have seen one of two outcomes play out: either LOTS of people use it, or virtually NOBODY uses it because something better has come along. Why on earth do you assume that some in-between outcome is likely, or even desired? Why do you assume bitcoin should behave like any other investment? You can't even calculate a P/E ratio.

[HeliKopterBen]

I'm backing up the truck and loading up as we speak.

[Nagle]

In 20-30 years, it is highly likely that we will have seen one of two outcomes play out: either LOTS of people use it, or virtually NOBODY uses it because something better has come along.

Probably more like 2-3 years on that.

[BTCtrader71]

In 20-30 years, it is highly likely that we will have seen one of two outcomes play out: either LOTS of people use it, or virtually NOBODY uses it because something better has come along.

Probably more like 2-3 years on that.

You may be right, although it is difficult to know just how long it will take.

I'm curious to know whether Ed has thought of an answer to my question from a few posts back.

[dinofelis]

Ed do you realistically think that bitcoin could possibly settle over the next, let's say 20 years, of modest growth with average 5-10% growth per year? How do you respond to the argument that in 20-30 years, it is highly likely that we will have seen one of two outcomes play out: either LOTS of people use it, or virtually NOBODY uses it because something better has come along. Why on earth do you assume that some in-between outcome is likely, or even desired? Why do you assume bitcoin should behave like any other investment? You can't even calculate a P/E ratio.

Indeed.   That's about the time scale involved to judge whether bitcoin is a success or a failure.
This is why I put some coins aside for the very long time.  I see them as a lottery ticket I bought of which the drawing is 20 years from now or so.  High chance it will be worth nothing, small chance that it will be worth a lot.  That's in the nature of lottery tickets.

The short term price swings on the scale of a few years have not much to do with it.

Of course, I could start trading, and "sell high and buy low"  but I'm no good at that, and it takes too much time and attention.  Moreover, I believe that the bitcoin price is fundamentally unpredictable as it is determined mainly by belief (the real fundamentals of bitcoin are now in the single or double digits as a currency).  Belief is highly volatile.

If it goes to zero, too bad, that's what happens with lottery tickets.  You expect this.  But if it goes to the moon (in 20-30 years from now), I have a great retirement :-)

[crazy_rabbit]

What if bitcoin stays low like this forever and never goes back to ATH? 

In my opinion you have to look at bitcoin as any investment. You should really only expect to gain 5-10% a year.

When bitcoin bubbles and shoots really high, that is when you sell.

There are too many bitcoins available and the market is too liquid to support ATH's long term. They will eventually fall back down to a sustainable level.

Following bitcion from $10 in 2013, it should really have only grown to about $20 at this point. Being that it has grown faster because of all the media from the $1000 bubble, you have to factor in accelerated growth. That is why I value bitcoins somewhere between $20-$100.

Oh had I read this quote a year ago..........