Bitcoin Forum

Do you guys think its possible someone or a group of people intentionally drove the price downwards in order to get more people to agree to hop on board at a more reasonable price?...and create some sort of buying frenzy...Is something like that even possible?

There isn't such a thing as a reasonable price. If the community decides to use bits as the base unit then you would buy 3000 bits with just 1 dollar.
Pretty cheap right  :P :P :P
Obviously there is a psychological effect on how much 1 bitcoin worth but that can change easily.

Long term trends are more likely a simple function of supply and demand.  I think it would be prohibitively expensive to try to push it consistently up or down for a long period of time.

3600 Coins are mined each day.  @ $350 a coin that's $1,260,000 each day that needs to come in to the market just to maintain the current price.
If one wants to profit from manipulating the market it does not require long term sustained manipulation up or down.  You can make plenty off short bursts up and down if you know in advance which way it will go requiring a lot less capital.

Ethereum wallet:

https://blockchain.info/address/36PrZ1KHYMpqSyAQXSG8VwbUiq2EogxLo2


Expect bigger correction next time they move another 1000-2000 btc again.

Why do people keep making this claim?  This assumes every coin generated is sold on the market.

Because it's true. Inflation is very high. Demand is not. Do you think these people won't sell if they fear lower prices are coming? Do you think they don't sell when the price goes up?

If miners think the price is going up they will hold as long as they can afford to in order to maximize their return on their bitcoins.

I see, please show me proof that EVERY single coin mined is sold on the market.  Coins are sold OTC.

It removes buyers from the visible market, regardless.

You are very active today posting gloom over the forum. How are the shorts burning going?

It's perfectly reasonable to have 3600 coins sold on the market and the price goes up.  Every coin sold is bought.  It all depends if there is good news that day, and who is motivated more (seller or buyer, market/limit).

A few years back when mining was a community endeavor you may have had a some percentage who decided to keep the coins rather than sell them right away to cover costs.  Not so anymore.  With today's mining realities I would guess at least 80% get sold off right away to cover buying equipment and paying for electricity.

You guess.

Have a look at the daily volume across the exchanges combined. Compare that to the coins produced by mining daily. Realise that mining sell pressure is a minor part price discovery for bitcoin. Two years ago there were twice as many coins produced each day flooding into bitcoin and far fewer people in the bitcoin scene - the price fell right?

I don't delete posts and pretty much all the info about my investment is public. I don't short. I don't sell. I don't trade. (Anymore)I have mined must of my coins 2011/2/3. I traded and about doubled them through the April bubble, and then lost about half on a single bad trade (sold at $70, bought back $120)

Since then I lost half through MtGox and altcoin crashes, and firmly hold the rest since September of last year.

Happy?

Right now Bitstamp's 24h volume is 27161 BTC. There are other big exchanges with similar or bigger volumes like bitfinex, OKCoin, and lakebtc. That's easily enough to absorb 3600 Coins mined each day.

Well you have my apology. Sorry for your coin losses. I find myself becoming cynical regarding the motivations of posters in this forum the longer I spend here. Might be time for a break!

It's the same for me and I end up being an ass.

As much doom and gloom as I spout, it's as bad for me as it is every other hodler. I just try to be realistic and share my expectations.

As for taking a break, I should probably do the same.  ;)

Bottom line, the whole this much money has to come into the market each day to maintain a given price is just not an accurate predictor of the market in any way.  It's not that simple and I wish people would stop that line of thinking.

Nah, just take a deep breath.  The last few months have been tough on us all :)

Yep, its my educated guess based on how mining has evolved these past two years.  I used that word intentionally because there is no way to know for sure what it is.  I don think its low as miners have real costs that they need to recover.  If they have money left over after paying off what they invested they may speculate with the profit.  Profit has become hard to get with many miners having trouble breaking even so they don't have coins to hold...

Question on the combined daily exchange volume.  On a heavy volume day with lots of activity the same money is often being used to buy and sell.  What does that have to do with estimating the amount of inflows needed just to satisfy the built in inflation from newly created coins?

Two years ago 7200 bitcoins were created each day.  The price in 2012 gradually increased from around $5 per coin to around $13 per coin.  @ 5$ per coin it required $36,000 per day and @ $13 per coin it required $93,600 per day.  Over time more than that flowed in raising the price.

I think what your saying is the volume of coins newly created are small compared to the overall exchange volume but I think they are different things.

No.

Why: we use darkpools.
Also: we sold very little of what we moved out of exodus in order to not dip anything, as crashing btc is going against our own employees and ourselves, who hold BTC.
Also: this story is just as funny as it's ludicrous, even if we had sold everything we had moved out of exodus on the open market, it still wouldn't have dipped the market the way it went. Look at the volumes on bitstamp alone, 2k btc is a fraction of what they move a day.

TL;DR: Not us, and we're rather see BTC go up, not down.

Thanks for not spreading disinformation.

Sure, they have "real costs", but not everyone has to recoup them. Mining is also a way to accumulate coins, not just profit. For instance, I mine, and have significant energy costs, but I don't sell the mined coins to cover the energy costs. This is one way I invest USD to obtain BTC.

I mine, I do not sell. I hodl. I have a few TH/s so I have a few coins... So not all miners sell. I do however do a bit of alt trading and used to mine a lesser coin. But I am now all in BTC. I lost quite a lot of Gox coins.. I am lucky, and have my own waterfall that produce power, I even sell a bit of power back to the grid. (Norway) so only investment was mining rigs, and I got in to BTC before 2012, but forgot about my wallet until 2013 and the bubble. So going beond gpu mining was a pretty easy decision. The idea that power is expensive  can be wrong.. I do not think I am alone. BTW, I quit my day job in April 2013... I love to read all the fantasy stories on this board. Whales and manipulators. Paranoid, simple minded people is fun at times.. We do not need fiat, we have BTC. Once people understand what I am talking about, you will be free. Forget the fiat. I do buy BTC with fiat, and have not lost a cent, or pardon me, a santoshi  so far. I trade on Bitstamp, and BTC-e and OTC. But not like I did on Gox.. I am a bearbullrabbit...

Same! Except I don't have a waterfall & I have sold everything I mined today @ $352 on bitstamp. Im watching out for the correction tomorrow! What do you do to pay the bills now that you left your day job?!  ???

Sell BTC otc if I need cash. But I have enough Fiat to last me and my family until I am gone from this earth....rental income...

Thank god man, god bless... This is why real estate tends to always pay off! Hopefully bitcoin does too!!!

Here's my explanation of why: it's actually good news, sort of.  This is definitely oversimplifying matters, but I think it's fairly accurate.

The bitcoin price has so much downward pressure because there's been a ton of bitcoin adoption by businesses and people are actually buying.  The bad news is that, obviously, most of the buyers aren't immediately buying more bitcoins to match their purchase, and there isn't enough speculation demand these days to bring the price up after factoring in the businesses immediately cashing out bitcoin purchases.

So, yeah, short term it sucks, because the value of bitcoin has dropped by like half in the last several months.  But I'm still optimistic long term because of merchant adoption.  I'm just going to leave this here (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-10-09/bitcoin-not-just-for-libertarians-and-anarchists-anymore).

If you want to help prevent further price drops, you have the power to do this as a buyer: immediately repurchase bitcoins to replace any purchase you make.  And if you're a miner, try not to sell your bitcoins these days.  Obviously, if you have to sell to pay rent or whatever, go for it, but if the price keeps dropping, it may not be economical for a lot of people to mine.

Good point. Also the constant sell pressure of businesses accepting Bitcoin and then selling right away is part of the problem.

It is not part of the problem.  It is a fundamental of bitcoin as a currency.   The velocity of bitcoin lowers the price which is way too high today as compared to its currency fundamental. 
There are 3 components to the bitcoin price:
- the currency fundamental (the demand for coins to hold between acquiring them and spending them, to buy stuff with).  I think that fundamental is quite low today, and comes mainly from the black market usage of bitcoin as a currency.
- the "store of value" fundamental (the market share of the gold market and a few similar markets).  I think that's also pretty low today.
- the speculation for higher fundamentals in the future (near or far).  I think that's the main component of the bitcoin price.

I really think a big part of the problem is that the exchanges are essentially running on fractional reserves.  They can just credit their accounts with BTC and no one is the wiser until there is a "run" on them.

This was a concern on the move down from the $600 level earlier in the year.   Another article (http://www.coindesk.com/many-bitcoins-making-sense-exaggerated-inventory-claims/) has appeared about this today.

exactly this. i have a feeling another tragedy is on the horizon.

Sometimes, market makers wishing to sell very big amount have little option left but to lower the price. In the process selling some, and then selling the majority at the new (lower) price level, where people are more willing to buy (due to lower price). This also work on the opposite way. I'm not saying that this was the case for bitcoin last year, only that it may be the case sometimes.

Right, the best way to get people interested in an asset is to have it drop in value steadily for over a year.  ::)

What i'm saying is that for someone it is better to be able to sell 500k BTC at ~350$ than 100k at ~400$.

its the only year it's ever done that though...

Out of what, 5 years? Not much history there....