Why the bitcoin price was under so much downward pressure

[Blazin604]

Do you guys think its possible someone or a group of people intentionally drove the price downwards in order to get more people to agree to hop on board at a more reasonable price?...and create some sort of buying frenzy...Is something like that even possible?

[PenAndPaper]

Do you guys think its possible someone or a group of people intentionally drove the price downwards in order to get more people to agree to hop on board at a more reasonable price?

There isn't such a thing as a reasonable price. If the community decides to use bits as the base unit then you would buy 3000 bits with just 1 dollar.
Pretty cheap right 
Obviously there is a psychological effect on how much 1 bitcoin worth but that can change easily.

[labsbitforum]

Long term trends are more likely a simple function of supply and demand.  I think it would be prohibitively expensive to try to push it consistently up or down for a long period of time.

3600 Coins are mined each day.  @ $350 a coin that's $1,260,000 each day that needs to come in to the market just to maintain the current price.
If one wants to profit from manipulating the market it does not require long term sustained manipulation up or down.  You can make plenty off short bursts up and down if you know in advance which way it will go requiring a lot less capital.

[Justine]

Ethereum wallet:

https://blockchain.info/address/36PrZ1KHYMpqSyAQXSG8VwbUiq2EogxLo2


Expect bigger correction next time they move another 1000-2000 btc again.

[buddhamangler]

Long term trends are more likely a simple function of supply and demand.  I think it would be prohibitively expensive to try to push it consistently up or down for a long period of time.

3600 Coins are mined each day.  @ $350 a coin that's $1,260,000 each day that needs to come in to the market just to maintain the current price.
If one wants to profit from manipulating the market it does not require long term sustained manipulation up or down.  You can make plenty off short bursts up and down if you know in advance which way it will go requiring a lot less capital.

Why do people keep making this claim?  This assumes every coin generated is sold on the market.

[derpinheimer]

Long term trends are more likely a simple function of supply and demand.  I think it would be prohibitively expensive to try to push it consistently up or down for a long period of time.

3600 Coins are mined each day.  @ $350 a coin that's $1,260,000 each day that needs to come in to the market just to maintain the current price.
If one wants to profit from manipulating the market it does not require long term sustained manipulation up or down.  You can make plenty off short bursts up and down if you know in advance which way it will go requiring a lot less capital.

Why do people keep making this claim?  This assumes every coin generated is sold on the market.

Because it's true. Inflation is very high. Demand is not. Do you think these people won't sell if they fear lower prices are coming? Do you think they don't sell when the price goes up?

[otto93]

If miners think the price is going up they will hold as long as they can afford to in order to maximize their return on their bitcoins.

[buddhamangler]

I see, please show me proof that EVERY single coin mined is sold on the market.  Coins are sold OTC.

[derpinheimer]

I see, please show me proof that EVERY single coin mined is sold on the market.  Coins are sold OTC.

It removes buyers from the visible market, regardless.

[inca]

I see, please show me proof that EVERY single coin mined is sold on the market.  Coins are sold OTC.

It removes buyers from the visible market, regardless.

You are very active today posting gloom over the forum. How are the shorts burning going?

[buddhamangler]

Long term trends are more likely a simple function of supply and demand.  I think it would be prohibitively expensive to try to push it consistently up or down for a long period of time.

3600 Coins are mined each day.  @ $350 a coin that's $1,260,000 each day that needs to come in to the market just to maintain the current price.
If one wants to profit from manipulating the market it does not require long term sustained manipulation up or down.  You can make plenty off short bursts up and down if you know in advance which way it will go requiring a lot less capital.

Why do people keep making this claim?  This assumes every coin generated is sold on the market.

Because it's true. Inflation is very high. Demand is not. Do you think these people won't sell if they fear lower prices are coming? Do you think they don't sell when the price goes up?

It's perfectly reasonable to have 3600 coins sold on the market and the price goes up.  Every coin sold is bought.  It all depends if there is good news that day, and who is motivated more (seller or buyer, market/limit).

[labsbitforum]

Long term trends are more likely a simple function of supply and demand.  I think it would be prohibitively expensive to try to push it consistently up or down for a long period of time.

3600 Coins are mined each day.  @ $350 a coin that's $1,260,000 each day that needs to come in to the market just to maintain the current price.
If one wants to profit from manipulating the market it does not require long term sustained manipulation up or down.  You can make plenty off short bursts up and down if you know in advance which way it will go requiring a lot less capital.

Why do people keep making this claim?  This assumes every coin generated is sold on the market.

A few years back when mining was a community endeavor you may have had a some percentage who decided to keep the coins rather than sell them right away to cover costs.  Not so anymore.  With today's mining realities I would guess at least 80% get sold off right away to cover buying equipment and paying for electricity.

[inca]

A few years back when mining was a community endeavor you may have had a some percentage who decided to keep the coins rather than sell them right away to cover costs.  Not so anymore.  With today's mining realities I would guess at least 80% get sold off right away to cover buying equipment and paying for electricity.

You guess.

Have a look at the daily volume across the exchanges combined. Compare that to the coins produced by mining daily. Realise that mining sell pressure is a minor part price discovery for bitcoin. Two years ago there were twice as many coins produced each day flooding into bitcoin and far fewer people in the bitcoin scene - the price fell right?

[derpinheimer]

I see, please show me proof that EVERY single coin mined is sold on the market.  Coins are sold OTC.

It removes buyers from the visible market, regardless.

You are very active today posting gloom over the forum. How are the shorts burning going?

I don't delete posts and pretty much all the info about my investment is public. I don't short. I don't sell. I don't trade. (Anymore)I have mined must of my coins 2011/2/3. I traded and about doubled them through the April bubble, and then lost about half on a single bad trade (sold at $70, bought back $120)

Since then I lost half through MtGox and altcoin crashes, and firmly hold the rest since September of last year.

Happy?

[otto93]

Right now Bitstamp's 24h volume is 27161 BTC. There are other big exchanges with similar or bigger volumes like bitfinex, OKCoin, and lakebtc. That's easily enough to absorb 3600 Coins mined each day.

[inca]

I see, please show me proof that EVERY single coin mined is sold on the market.  Coins are sold OTC.

It removes buyers from the visible market, regardless.

You are very active today posting gloom over the forum. How are the shorts burning going?

I don't delete posts and pretty much all the info about my investment is public. I don't short. I don't sell. I don't trade. (Anymore)I have mined must of my coins 2011/2/3. I traded and about doubled them through the April bubble, and then lost about half on a single bad trade (sold at $70, bought back $120)

Since then I lost half through MtGox and altcoin crashes, and firmly hold the rest since September of last year.

Happy?

Well you have my apology. Sorry for your coin losses. I find myself becoming cynical regarding the motivations of posters in this forum the longer I spend here. Might be time for a break!

[derpinheimer]

I see, please show me proof that EVERY single coin mined is sold on the market.  Coins are sold OTC.

It removes buyers from the visible market, regardless.

You are very active today posting gloom over the forum. How are the shorts burning going?

I don't delete posts and pretty much all the info about my investment is public. I don't short. I don't sell. I don't trade. (Anymore)I have mined must of my coins 2011/2/3. I traded and about doubled them through the April bubble, and then lost about half on a single bad trade (sold at $70, bought back $120)

Since then I lost half through MtGox and altcoin crashes, and firmly hold the rest since September of last year.

Happy?

Well you have my apology. Sorry for your coin losses. I find myself becoming cynical regarding the motivations of posters in this forum the longer I spend here. Might be time for a break!

It's the same for me and I end up being an ass.

As much doom and gloom as I spout, it's as bad for me as it is every other hodler. I just try to be realistic and share my expectations.

As for taking a break, I should probably do the same. 

[buddhamangler]

Bottom line, the whole this much money has to come into the market each day to maintain a given price is just not an accurate predictor of the market in any way.  It's not that simple and I wish people would stop that line of thinking.

[buddhamangler]

I see, please show me proof that EVERY single coin mined is sold on the market.  Coins are sold OTC.

It removes buyers from the visible market, regardless.

You are very active today posting gloom over the forum. How are the shorts burning going?

I don't delete posts and pretty much all the info about my investment is public. I don't short. I don't sell. I don't trade. (Anymore)I have mined must of my coins 2011/2/3. I traded and about doubled them through the April bubble, and then lost about half on a single bad trade (sold at $70, bought back $120)

Since then I lost half through MtGox and altcoin crashes, and firmly hold the rest since September of last year.

Happy?

Well you have my apology. Sorry for your coin losses. I find myself becoming cynical regarding the motivations of posters in this forum the longer I spend here. Might be time for a break!

It's the same for me and I end up being an ass.

As much doom and gloom as I spout, it's as bad for me as it is every other hodler. I just try to be realistic and share my expectations.

As for taking a break, I should probably do the same. 

Nah, just take a deep breath.  The last few months have been tough on us all

[labsbitforum]

A few years back when mining was a community endeavor you may have had a some percentage who decided to keep the coins rather than sell them right away to cover costs.  Not so anymore.  With today's mining realities I would guess at least 80% get sold off right away to cover buying equipment and paying for electricity.

You guess.

Have a look at the daily volume across the exchanges combined. Compare that to the coins produced by mining daily. Realise that mining sell pressure is a minor part price discovery for bitcoin. Two years ago there were twice as many coins produced each day flooding into bitcoin and far fewer people in the bitcoin scene - the price fell right?

Yep, its my educated guess based on how mining has evolved these past two years.  I used that word intentionally because there is no way to know for sure what it is.  I don think its low as miners have real costs that they need to recover.  If they have money left over after paying off what they invested they may speculate with the profit.  Profit has become hard to get with many miners having trouble breaking even so they don't have coins to hold...

Question on the combined daily exchange volume.  On a heavy volume day with lots of activity the same money is often being used to buy and sell.  What does that have to do with estimating the amount of inflows needed just to satisfy the built in inflation from newly created coins?

Two years ago 7200 bitcoins were created each day.  The price in 2012 gradually increased from around $5 per coin to around $13 per coin.  @ 5$ per coin it required $36,000 per day and @ $13 per coin it required $93,600 per day.  Over time more than that flowed in raising the price.

I think what your saying is the volume of coins newly created are small compared to the overall exchange volume but I think they are different things.