Bitcoin Forum

Just for the fun of it and the record.

Why? Because a bunch of lines on a drawing converge there, and 211 because it's the nearest prime.

No idea what happens after the "singularity" on 2015 April Fool's, but being an irredeemable bull I would say up.

https://i.imgur.com/Yn81uFM.png

You are the Picasso of price charting.

Draw a bunch of lines at predicted price. Call it science :D

You didn't need that many lines, you could have used 2 or 3...

My gut feeling is that we could grind lower from here. My gut is sometimes wrong though!

Your enhancement of the chart puts it in it's true light.

Words cannot describe my amazement at that chart.

There is now a fine line between dump & hodl

Puts things in perspective :)

211 would be a nice buying opportunity for the bullish. I am not sure how many weak hands are left to panic it down that far but bitcoin always seems to surprise me.

a) GABI to buy $200 Million in Bitcoin
b) GABI cooperating with Bitfinex
c) Bitfinex which has become the lead exchange obviously driving down the price

Keep selling them cheap coins

Well, the price did drop to 275$ last month, and looking at the current trend, it is very wellpossible.

Double digits by April 2015.

$211 is a bit too bullish. It could easily be in lower 100s or two digits by then

careful now, logic is looked down upon round these parts. just refer to the post above this one if you don't believe me!

I think many people are still holding onto their coins hoping for signs of a trend reversal in 2015. If that doesn't happen, then we could see a large crash as people give up and dump their btc.

More popular each month, huh? So how do you explain the fact that the price has been falling for almost a year now?

Have you heard about the concept of "supply and demand"? Do you know what a falling price indicates?

I appreciate the hard high quality work of analysis that's being done in this thread.  It really shifts the standard for TA to a whole new level - worldwide.

I feel overwhelmed especially by the innovative technique of converging lines that are the foundations of the revolutionary Red-Phalloid-Indicator (RPI), which is the only indicator that can accurately predict big market eruptions.

ya.ya.yo!

Already called it a few weeks ago at $200

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=829490.0

Some evoked the possibility Satoshi was a time traveler, could that point be his origin?

Probably will happen, but not because of your irrational graph, but because it was way overpumped in 2013.

It did not last down there very long at all; Bounced right back up to just under 400.

Charting works in trading because it is a self-fulfilling prophecy: everyone (including bots) end up with the same lines, and reacts based on them... until some actual piece of news or black swan happens, and throws things "off the chart".

Still nothing stops it from going up again. It has been highly volatile and its hard to predict.

are you serious with your graph? uhm....i suppose you're trolling us :D

April is to soon i say maybe in September.

I would still prefer it to happen on April Fool's day.  ;D

Looks like April Fool's Day is coming early this year!

Good call..

Now when read back these old threads, certain predictions indeed could be true. I mean it's not simply a wild guess but a real graph plot that points to potential btc price.

So, what is the next target ? $20 or $2000 ? :)

Neither. I will go on a limb and say a low around 180-190, then a bounce to 200-ish, where it will stay until April Fool's

After that, a slow crawl to the 250-300 range until 2016 and the next halving maybe.
No more "get rich quick" and no more very profitable mining.

Well, it did overshoot a bit, but we're at 190 now.

Not sure how long it will last.

Looks like the prediction will not be too far off...  ;D

Behold the power of TA :D

You did pretty well! Will be curious to see how 3/29 looks, the 5 month mark!

The price will go high as fuck when least expected. If there is an high adoption = there is an high price, cause and effect. And we never know when bitcoin suddenly becomes trendy and everyone and their mother jumps in.

Putting a Tolkien reference as an option makes it just too tempting  ::)

Honestly, I think if we're at 211 in five months that would be so bad that it would probably mean the end of bitcoin.
So, despite these last days, I believe we're amidst an upwards trend, which should take us to about 800 by the end of the year - I'd put us in the 600/700 range in 5 months.

It is definitely a "singularity" point, I am not thinking the end, more like some point that needs to be revisited before any hope of bounce.
If there is no bounce on the singularity, things would be grim indeed for BTC.

The trend lines are still valid, and it looks like we'll be there for April's fool...

TA is a bit scary, it works only because/when it is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Loving this thread buddy, good call, already hiring some popcorns to watch bitcoinwisdom.com during april fools, more exciting than any movie.

you must be joking right? the end of bitcoin? seriously?
your $800 prediction is far too high. i think the highest it will go is probably $500

I think $300 sounds about the ball park

Please do more predictions you are good! :D

The chicken bones indicate a 30% drop in XMR soon, but I do not trust modern chicken bones much, even organic ones.

wow that was a really good prediction, not like all those trollers with their bullshit

what do you think about the next bitcoin step? a good rise, stagnancy or another big drop?

If you make one good prediction, then stop! and leave with your head held high.

If you've ever looked at the portfolio managers and top performers over 1 year, 2 years etc, the best recent one is almost never the best one the following year, and even if they achieve that, the probability of being top the following year diminishes again. 

That doesn't mean the under performer will automatically flip into position either.  If we all knew that then there wouldn't be a market.

I don't believe the price won't deviate much between 250-300 and will stabilize at this level for a while.

After the last small bullrun to 300, i believe there will be "rinse and repeat" few times ahead , before either falling down to 180-200, or rising to another +50$ mark.
At this time its insanely hard to predict the movement, maybe the OP has something to advise us further on btc price, we dont care about xmr and other shi*coins


double negative, aka we dont need no education :)

cheers

If you missed the opportunity to buy bitcoins in the $211 range then sit tight: you'll get your chance in the next few weeks.

This thread is stupid.

Given Bitcoin's volatility, I would say that the target was reasonably close.
At least the OP got the trend right.  :)

Nice post.

Made me take a walk down memory lane.

https://i.imgur.com/loCv9Q2.png

https://i.imgur.com/rORR8GB.png

Yeah this is a tough level anyway. Is the op around for more predictions? :P

Still waiting to see if that one will come to pass.

Made another one on XMR, and got it completely wrong hehe ;)

@OP: great call. Any chance to see your predictions for the next five months?

betting on the bitcoin price is the most unpredictable, but in some way the last couple of months the price is steady. So I guess it is a possibility. But hope it can hold the current price.

Bitcoin is as much easy (or difficult) to predict as any other asset of such speculative nature.
Having said that, I think we should expect the sideways trend for the next five months, within the channel $200-$300.

Nice try OP.

The bounce from the Jan. bottom looked pretty convincing until about two weeks ago. You´re maybe a month or so off. Bitcoin´s problem remains anemic volume and no buying interest.

Thats what simpleton plebs take from their analysis. Meanwhile this is what is going on behind the curtains:

http://insidebitcoins.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/image-3.png

You have no notions about how things work if you limit all to what you said. Things are building up. It's going to be fun to see what FUDsters say in the next months.

Yeah, I´ve seen that one before. And similar. Countless retards around here that have been 100% wrong for over a year should maybe take a year or so off posting.

Let this last column be the real, not projected data. As soon as it really turns to what is projected that is a strong argument in favour of Bitcoin rise.
For now it is only a 'projected' strong argument, and projections are not always correct.

What if there will be a April Fools' PUMP instead of a dump? :)

April's fools last for the whole month eh?  ;D

Still got a chance for $211 mid-april based in bitstamp chart.
Same lines of bitfinex show $211 for early may.

May is a good time for BTC pumps. We'll see.

Apparently legendary retards have spent about a million man-hours on these threads for the past year telling people that the Chinese are actually buying bitcoin. I guess these idiots really believe that the Chinese share our western noble bitcoin ideals. No sorry, it´s just another money printing press to them.

Almost at the singularity now...

Prices arent $211, but you are pretty close off by $10 but it hasnt been 5 months lol.

I have feeling its going to head down to double digits soon, due to that downward trend we been seeing, then again who knows it might go back up.  ???

OP's wishes are coming truer by the day :( prices are sliding in front of Bitcoiners eyes lol :(

Lol, all of the legendary members FUDing are either bought accounts or people that sold all of their BTC supply and are scared it might go above ATH.

5.5 months now, granted, but the price is still in the boundaries of the OP, and it's off by $5 now

Singularity in the next 72h, which are going to be... crucial hehe. I'm betting on a ride, not sure which way. I hope it will be up.

really good call fairglu. You also traded your call in this way? Or are you a hodler?  :D

The next 24 hours are critical. Mark my words, it´s always a good line. Right or wrong, up or down, sideways or out the window. Best of luck, g

They are always critical... blah.

Good call OP.

I hodl more than I trade.

Even when I make bearish predictions, I always have trouble hitting the "sell" button hehe.

Based on bitstamp chart (the one from the OP)
Looks like if we go below 196 within 48h, the bears will have won this round.
Bulls need to break to 250 with volume.

Based on bitfinex chart:
There is still room for "no action" until mid-may, with prices in the 190-230 range

Choose your poison :)

Benji called 196 aswell as an important level. Where do you think we will go once we break it and why do you think it's important? Just the trendline?

i'm pretty confident that it will stay between 100 and 200 at worst case scenario, before rising again... this if sub 200 will ever be achieved again(that again is the reason why i'm not worried)

falling below 200 can trigger a massive rise up to a all new ATM so the current volatility isnt that depressing :P

No real idea


Yes, it's a convergence of long-term bearish and bullish trend.

After that point, if we go up, bulls maintain a long-term trend upward, if we go down, bears confirm a long-term trend downward.
Whichever way it goes could set the tune for the next year or two.

I am not sure BTC could survive another year of downtrend and rising transaction volume, I am thinking "Tragedy of the Commons" there. Running a full node, service or pool would become more and more expensive, for ever diminishing returns.

Not sure if you are lucky or good on your prediction, but it's accuracy is amazing.

Nice call. Once again, the bulls get smacked in the face.

"BTC is the most revolutionary payment system right now that grows to be LESS popular each month."

I've fixed it for you.

It is only because of ignorance of people who are reacting only to every kind of bad news and are totally skeptical towards great and optimistic news like PayPal acceptance or rise of new great exchange markets like Gemini. It it impatience of people who think that if bitcoin is not huge right now it is dead. Bu that is completely not true at all.

Oh wow.  Lol.  A tad late, but man...

I think we can nominate this as one of the all time most accurate bitcoin predictions.

Yep and he said its up :)

It is accurate. So the price is at the critical point. Up we come.

Yeah, I think so too, not only that, but miners will be squeezed for real under 100$. Already the majority of small miners is out of the game and only the most efficient are still here. Once we reach a critical point between the cost-basis and the value of btc we will face some huge problems with how the network runs, the blockchain could basically stop for months since the difficulty only adjusts every 2 weeks. We are already seeing the effect of this prolonged trend in how slow confirmations are lately.

Seems like a good plan to test this now. Damage will be much worse in 5 years, when broader adoption already occurred.

Man you were spot on, one of the best prediction in bitcoin price histroy  :P

Haha yes, now "for the fun of it" tell us what the price will be in another 5 months please!  ;D

Well, it hit 210 for about five seconds but still not bad for a prediction. Looks like that was the bottom for a while, maybe this month. But bitcoin´s main problem remains limp volume and little buying.

You have to be f'g kidding me "not bad" - very few would have been within $100 from 5 months out, let alone a few bucks. Incredible is all I can say.
I'd be very interested to see the op make another 5 month call from here.

It has been cratering for more than a year and I doubt that it will have stopped cratering five months from now. But probably it will be more stabilized.

So its time to buy more bitcoin and hodl :)

I'm asking for another prediction from the OP, but thanks.

I just stopped in to Congratulate the OP.  ;)

It takes balls to publicly make a prediction on something as volatile as bitcoin from 5 months out. It takes brilliance, and maybe a bit of luck, to actually be correct.

:) good call op

agree with the others. congrats on a great call

I hope you guys know how this line drawing works. People draw some lines and other people see it as an imaginary wall or target, so they put their orders there. More people see the orders and add to the walls creating supports based on imaginary lines written by someone. The price stops at the wall, predictions confirm, more people start to believe in the imaginary lines...

Yes, self-fulfilling prophecy, usually works until a black swan event happens.

what are the predictions for the next 5 months?

A price of ~140-160 for me to buy in and then back to 200+$ for the rest of the year. And then moon in 5 years unless some other coin surpasses it :)

You got a fuckin magic 8ball or something OP, 5 months later and your almost spot on, well done.

Maybe he is a huge whale that sets the price to whatever he wants... Could you OP please provide info on future price, especially if that's the case.
And make it a bit lower for a few days, I want to buy some ;)

Lol, perfect prediction! :o

Yup, I gotta chime in and applaud this prediction. I don't really know whether it was luck or really profound TA, but it was more or less on spot. Looking at the larger scale really makes me nervous and excited at the same time right now.

FWIW the situation still looks fairly undecided, the price is getting squeezed in ever tighter margins, some of the resistance lines have become supports, but with diminishing volumes, this does not mean bulls have won.

Usually things should have broken out one way or another at this point, but it looks like this will be played to the very end.

Volumes are diminishing as the price gets squeezed, tentative deadline for the final convergence is May 2-3 at around $225. Things are really tight, any move with volume will show the direction.

I am still hoping this is a failing wedge, which the bulls should eventually win, but there needs to be a news of some sort to trigger things...

fairglu, you sound like you know what your talking about when it comes to price movements and predictions, have you had a go at this one yet?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1026282.0;topicseen

We're still in the 'it can break down' phase, yeah. That being said, I would've expected the price to break down even more considering the dumps 1-2 weeks ago. It's remarkable that the price is still holding, yeah!

Yes, none of the big players are taking risks. It like sumos before the rush. Or bots on autopilot. hehe

Looks like you were, at least sort of, right. We broke that first mini triangle pretty well the other day. No real consolidation, which is remarkable. Even the default direction seems to be still "up" at this moment. Let's see where this is getting us, we could re-test the current resistance line of the bigger falling wedge...

200,000 bitcoins to be liquidated... i don't see this in any positive way for price recovery especially when confidence in bitcoin is waning... majority of the coins will be dumped as soon as they hit exchanges..

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/201504_notice1_en.pdf

 btc crashing down, down, down...

If consolidation of a floor does not happen before mid may, I would be tempted to think we could cross 2xx. If the opposite happens, a very slow uptrend might start. Take into consideration the big players are using this long term downtrend to try to pick up as much cheap hanging fruit as possible from the clueless non-longtermers.

And the price is still going up!? :D Well I don't think the majority agrees with that assessment, to be honest. Also the price of the Bitcoins stuck there is supposedly fixed at over $400/bitcoin....

why you think that? not everybody want to dump their precious bitcoin, also why dumping now, when those bitcoin were probably bought at a higher price, is beyond stupid

Approx 7 months later, we have broken upward, from a charting lines POV we should be at the beginning of a bullish trend.

I do not have a pretty graph to back it at the moment, but for the fun of it, I will make two predictions:
* 2-3 months: $350 is possible for the summer, target is $325 by mid-july.
* 5 months: we will retest the $250 range in autumn.

It will be a bumpy ride, next confirmation will be testing of $290 by mid-june and staying above $225 until then.
Of course some black swan event might throw everything off, but that's the fun of it, isn't it?

And just FTR, do not ever speculate more than you can afford to lose.

So, anyone is profiting from following this post?

Don't think so. We did not know it was so accurate.

Depends if people have a choice, as the disbursement may have to be made in cash, in which case Kobayashi will auction the coins. There's also the 2.8 billion yen shortfall on Gox's books (about 23 million USD, or 96K BTC), which will need to be covered at least partially.

If the disbursement is made primarily in Bitcoin, then as you rightly say it is unlikely to make much of an impact.

If the coins go to the owners hands as it should, I don't imagine the owners are very happy to hold BTC, they'll be paranoid as hell and will sell for filthy fiat. Im just hoping there are some intelligent people out there that can look at the big picture and keep their Bitcoins on a wallet.

I don't think that they will go and sell their BTC. Either they've lost 'trading coins' on Gox, in which case we'll have to see what the people are doing with the reimbursed coins. Or they lost coins that have been held for a long time (using gox as a bank) in which case I believe the people are going to hold on to their coins, anyways.

I`m calling it`ll be in the 100ish.

I say more of $180ish or if something drastic happens with a sell off, could prop to a lower value. The only way I see bitcoin retaining value always regardless of what people say would be illegal transactions.

This includes money laundering for online gambling sites that accept fiat more mainly.

I can't imagine such a response, but then I can't imagine why you'd ever hold substantial sums at Gox, so whadda I know.

One month later, the $225 is being aggressively tested.

On the one hand, this is the predicted line and it's somewhat ok, we did dip below but not much by looking at the big picture.
On the other hand, it's really aggressively tested.

Fasten your seat-belts.

How do you think the current value was effected by the fork bullshit that is going on? Would be we be closer to the 290 USD target you predicted without this news?

Large traders know how to do proper research before buying or dumping. They don't get fooled to dump just because of the fork "drama" that is started by people who like to spread fud.

Only noobs and weak hands panic after reading crap, but they barely have an impact on the price. Current price level is normal and not even surprising.

I think "the fork bullshit" should have a positive impact on the value, because if nothing is done it's even worse for the future of Bitcoin.. And large traders know it..

I do no think it was, eventually the block size will have to be increased, or the fees will naturally increase through market pressure (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1078123.0) while adoption will be clamped.

The centralization talk from wallet operating services and exchanges is a bit funny TBH, given they're by design the biggest centralizers.

Personally I think the block limit could be lifted entirely, the dynamics of the blockchain mining and block propagation will ensure large spammy blocks would be orphaned, and mining pools would thus naturally limit block size to what makes technological and practical sense (which in the end, is all that really matters).

it's obvious that the fork did something to the price, caused that little drop of 20 usd, but without that, it would not have reached 290 for sure, we were still too far away from that point

the increases , marching slowly, the falls happen almost instantly

Some hype news would be good right now, there are not many shorts to squeeze sadly at this point.

I see good news every focking day honestly.) point is, that there is no user interest..

@fairglu

Prediction of the year!!!   :D

Two months later, we've just broken $280, only 16% of upward movement left before the target is reached, but this is probably too optimistic. Maybe for end of july or early august instead.

Yeah, man I can see all those people who probably had a doubt in their mind or were pessimistic when read this post go like,'Oh fuck I should have bought, should have hold, should have this and that'. LOL. Y'all just gotta deal with whatever is happening, play smart moves and get in there. The problem is people think too much with their important money, so invest money you won't mind losing.

My "ideal" scenario for the end of the year: bull run stopping around 700 or below near the end of November, then consolidation around 450-500.
This would leave a nice upward potential for 2016.

The alternative would be to overshoot and reach (maybe beat) the ATH, but then it would likely be followed by a long and boring consolidation... until things become lively again near the halving.

I like the first scenario, we need consolidation. If the price stay below $500 for about a month, that is good for the future price appreciation.