Bitcoin Forum

(if you haven't done so already)

https://i.imgur.com/04rLCCK.png

Red line = Est. on-chain daily USD transaction volume divided by 200000.

 8)

This graph doesn't say shit, sorry. Only that price roughly follows the volume

Sorry, out of fiat since $375 :)

lol, history is repeating

Nice one, ET. I remember your method :)

Maybe link to the original discussion, so people understand the importance of the crossing , and the motivation of the constant you're using.

It crossed at the last wave-4 only to decline further.
I would love to see the original thread. It may make me rethink my position.

100k+ peak sometime in 2017. I could live with that.

This is a statement taken out of the key

I'll play Eurotrash's method's advocate for a moment :D

Original thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=568760

Re: Ryn's remark of false signals coming in at the "spikes"... that was a point of discussion in the thread above. We were discussing if some type of smoothing of the tx $volume line (red line) might help (aminorex suggested regression over a rolling time window), but on second view, I'm not so sure that's really the solution: the "spike" earlier this year was a bad signal, while a similar spike in 2011 quite accurately signaled the end of the 2011 bear market.

Ultimately, the method probably still needs refinement (I also remembering pointing out that I'm not convinced it's a good idea that the 200000 constant is "fixed" globally over time, instead of updated), but I /do/ think Eurotrash is onto something - if I understand it right the signal essentially says: going by the established velocity of money of the Bitcoin network, current per unit valuation is no longer enough to support the current transfer volume, i.e. an application of the Velocity Of Money/Money Supply formula.

That spike at the $2 low in 2011 looks like a larger holder moving coins from Gox to a wallet to me. I can't prove this by just looking at that chart, but it fits the situation

And thanks for the link, I'll check it out this evening

He is right. After nearly 10 months we are in positive territory completely now. CCI, MACD, divergence as well as EXP is positive. Learn about these indicators and check their history over a period of a year and you will realize what OP is trying to say.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btceUSD#rg60ztgSzbgBza1gWMAzm1g10za2gWMAzm2g25zxzi1gCCIzi2gMACDzv

So, can someone translate this into how much will BTC be worth at a certain date? What are your projections every month for the next couple of years?

Buy and hodl.
prediction: >500 before 2015, >1000 before 2016

I already did that. I don't recommend anyone else to do what I did. I'm optimistic, but at least I'm taking all the risk. What I did is borrow the money from a fiat bank to buy the bitcoins. I intend to pay them off over the next 5 years. My hope is that my loan is fully paid by that time, while I still hodl close to the original number of BTC I bought.

In the worst case, I pay off the amortization from my own money, but I have already bought the bitcoins.

I'm waiting for a couple more banks to follow up with their offers.

What price did you buy in at?

Very rational decision. I withdrawn my pension fund in June 2013 and bought bitcoins. The rest is history.

The government actually allows you to go bankrupt and not have to pay back the banks.

This is a gift that keeps on giving.

I do not see a confirmation yet, though getting in now could be a spec. play.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=730&i=Weekly&c=1&s=2012-11-08&e=2014-11-08&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=15&a2=EMA&m2=10&x=1&i1=RSI&i2=UO&i3=MACD&i4=MFI&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

I first bought a few in 2012. Then sold them all a few months later for double the price. Which wasn't much. I should have borrowed then.

The most recent buy was this year, just last month, near the $400 mark. The local exchanges (local to me) were either out of coins or seemed too high, so I wired the money out to several exchanges, then bought what I could.


Obviously the government does not know I have bitcoins, but how do I declare bankruptcy when I still have a lot of stuff? The banks will probably want to take my car first, or hold me to a payment restructuring, or simply just black list me.

Don't worry so much about stuff...and things like credit ratings.

And don't own a car that you aren't willing to just leave on the side of the road and go get a new (cheap) one.

I actually have a decent credit rating. That's why I was able to take out several loans. I just wish I took them in 2011 or 2012 and bought as much as I could, or mined as much as I could, or sold a pizza.

Now, as long as the BTC can pay back the loan, I think that's much safer than ignoring the bank.

I'm going to be in a position where I can abandon where I live and move to another country. But I wouldn't want to intentionally do that to a bank.

The graph maybe, but not the facts. We are about to get another coin auction, so lower prices incoming

EuroTrash

....lol nuff said

Withdrawing to your bank account might let the government know you have money from the sale of bitcoins.

If you withdrew between $5000 and $10000 from an exchange into your bank account through a wire transfer then in some countries the bank may be obliged to tell the government/tax man about it.

This link explains how it works in the US.

https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20100304070056AAxEgiq

There are two main reporting requirements for banks. The first and most common, with more than 15 million being filed in calendar year 2007, is the currency transaction report, or CTR. These are triggered simply because of the size of the transaction. The second type is called a suspicious activity report, or SAR, and is filed when the bank "knows, suspects, or has reason to suspect" that a transaction of at least $5,000 involves money derived from illegal activities or is part of a plan to violate federal laws and financial reporting requirements.

These wikipedia links go into more detail on currency transaction reports, and suspicious activity reports.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_transaction_report

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_activity_report

did you at least refund part of cap gains into some sort of a pension fund or brokerage account when bitcoin was $1000-375? It would have made sense. Roth or something like this. I think Risto's "sane savings plan" also makes sense
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

I could sign that with my blood and tears.

Fortunately, I have a lot of noise in my bank accounts, amounting to many times more than my current bitcoin holdings. Also, none of the money coming in to my accounts have ever been directly from any international exchange. (local ones, yes, but they do cash deposits.)

Second reminder.

https://i.imgur.com/pPKeQbG.png

I did like you told me on 17th, sold all my school books & invested like you said.  Got margin called a few days later so my moneys gone and schol isnt going to gud. I now my moms credet card stuffs so i coud buy more bitcoin on circle.com but i got to be real shur this time.

Are you super shur this time, EuroTrash?

Interesting metric but I dont think its more than a correlation.

Lol  :D

Who needs school books when you can just get rich by trusting someone on a forum.
Of course I am sure. Go ahead. Either way you're about to learn a lesson.  ;)

School sucks!

A pincher in the weekly MACD. Things can get exciting in the next few weeks.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=730&i=Weekly&c=1&s=2012-11-08&e=2014-12-01&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=15&a2=EMA&m2=10&x=1&i1=RSI&i2=UO&i3=MACD&i4=MFI&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=730&i=Weekly&c=1&s=2012-11-08&e=2014-12-01&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=15&a2=EMA&m2=10&x=1&i1=RSI&i2=UO&i3=MACD&i4=MFI&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

I just wish I'll experience another bitcoin bubble in my life, especially since I missed the last one  :P

It's funny - the bust periods (like most of 2014) are typically deeper than in other markets, but sorta feel the same; just a drawn-out slog. But the boom periods in bitcoin are like no other market. It's totally nuts.

This 'finding' is remarkable, even if the constant was found experimentally. But I have problems with the fact that the in-chain transaction volume in USD does include transactions between the same person. This invalidate the whole point in my opinion, making this perhaps a case of 'data overfitting'.

It is possible to include only transactions where a fee was paid.  This may be a better metric.  If someone wants to send himself money, as long as a fee is paid to miners it's still a real transaction.