This graph says you should get in now

[EuroTrash]

(if you haven't done so already)



Red line = Est. on-chain daily USD transaction volume divided by 200000.

[zeurpiet]

 

[podyx]

This graph doesn't say shit, sorry. Only that price roughly follows the volume

[zeroday]

Sorry, out of fiat since $375

[Mieehayii]

lol, history is repeating

[oda.krell]

Nice one, ET. I remember your method

Maybe link to the original discussion, so people understand the importance of the crossing , and the motivation of the constant you're using.

[RyNinDaCleM]

It crossed at the last wave-4 only to decline further.
I would love to see the original thread. It may make me rethink my position.

[SmoothCurves]

(if you haven't done so already)



Red line = Est. on-chain daily USD transaction volume divided by 200000.

100k+ peak sometime in 2017. I could live with that.

[TinaK]

This is a statement taken out of the key

[oda.krell]

I'll play Eurotrash's method's advocate for a moment

Original thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=568760

Re: Ryn's remark of false signals coming in at the "spikes"... that was a point of discussion in the thread above. We were discussing if some type of smoothing of the tx $volume line (red line) might help (aminorex suggested regression over a rolling time window), but on second view, I'm not so sure that's really the solution: the "spike" earlier this year was a bad signal, while a similar spike in 2011 quite accurately signaled the end of the 2011 bear market.

Ultimately, the method probably still needs refinement (I also remembering pointing out that I'm not convinced it's a good idea that the 200000 constant is "fixed" globally over time, instead of updated), but I /do/ think Eurotrash is onto something - if I understand it right the signal essentially says: going by the established velocity of money of the Bitcoin network, current per unit valuation is no longer enough to support the current transfer volume, i.e. an application of the Velocity Of Money/Money Supply formula.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I'll play Eurotrash's method's advocate for a moment

Original thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=568760

Re: Ryn's remark of false signals coming in at the "spikes"... that was a point of discussion in the thread above. We were discussing if some type of smoothing of the tx $volume line (red line) might help (aminorex suggested regression over a rolling time window), but on second view, I'm not so sure that's really the solution: the "spike" earlier this year was a bad signal, while a similar spike in 2011 quite accurately signaled the end of the 2011 bear market.

Ultimately, the method probably still needs refinement (I also remembering pointing out that I'm not convinced it's a good idea that the 200000 constant is "fixed" globally over time, instead of updated), but I /do/ think Eurotrash is onto something - if I understand it right the signal essentially says: going by the established velocity of money of the Bitcoin network, current per unit valuation is no longer enough to support the current transfer volume, i.e. an application of the Velocity Of Money/Money Supply formula.

That spike at the $2 low in 2011 looks like a larger holder moving coins from Gox to a wallet to me. I can't prove this by just looking at that chart, but it fits the situation

And thanks for the link, I'll check it out this evening

[DustyRah]

He is right. After nearly 10 months we are in positive territory completely now. CCI, MACD, divergence as well as EXP is positive. Learn about these indicators and check their history over a period of a year and you will realize what OP is trying to say.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btceUSD#rg60ztgSzbgBza1gWMAzm1g10za2gWMAzm2g25zxzi1gCCIzi2gMACDzv

[Dabs]

So, can someone translate this into how much will BTC be worth at a certain date? What are your projections every month for the next couple of years?

[erre]

So, can someone translate this into how much will BTC be worth at a certain date? What are your projections every month for the next couple of years?

Buy and hodl.
prediction: >500 before 2015, >1000 before 2016

[Dabs]

So, can someone translate this into how much will BTC be worth at a certain date? What are your projections every month for the next couple of years?

Buy and hodl.
prediction: >500 before 2015, >1000 before 2016

I already did that. I don't recommend anyone else to do what I did. I'm optimistic, but at least I'm taking all the risk. What I did is borrow the money from a fiat bank to buy the bitcoins. I intend to pay them off over the next 5 years. My hope is that my loan is fully paid by that time, while I still hodl close to the original number of BTC I bought.

In the worst case, I pay off the amortization from my own money, but I have already bought the bitcoins.

I'm waiting for a couple more banks to follow up with their offers.

[var53]

So, can someone translate this into how much will BTC be worth at a certain date? What are your projections every month for the next couple of years?

Buy and hodl.
prediction: >500 before 2015, >1000 before 2016

I already did that. I don't recommend anyone else to do what I did. I'm optimistic, but at least I'm taking all the risk. What I did is borrow the money from a fiat bank to buy the bitcoins. I intend to pay them off over the next 5 years. My hope is that my loan is fully paid by that time, while I still hodl close to the original number of BTC I bought.

In the worst case, I pay off the amortization from my own money, but I have already bought the bitcoins.

I'm waiting for a couple more banks to follow up with their offers.

What price did you buy in at?

[ask]

So, can someone translate this into how much will BTC be worth at a certain date? What are your projections every month for the next couple of years?

Buy and hodl.
prediction: >500 before 2015, >1000 before 2016

I already did that. I don't recommend anyone else to do what I did. I'm optimistic, but at least I'm taking all the risk. What I did is borrow the money from a fiat bank to buy the bitcoins. I intend to pay them off over the next 5 years. My hope is that my loan is fully paid by that time, while I still hodl close to the original number of BTC I bought.

In the worst case, I pay off the amortization from my own money, but I have already bought the bitcoins.

I'm waiting for a couple more banks to follow up with their offers.

Very rational decision. I withdrawn my pension fund in June 2013 and bought bitcoins. The rest is history.

[Elwar]

The government actually allows you to go bankrupt and not have to pay back the banks.

This is a gift that keeps on giving.

[goxed]

I do not see a confirmation yet, though getting in now could be a spec. play.

[Dabs]

What price did you buy in at?

I first bought a few in 2012. Then sold them all a few months later for double the price. Which wasn't much. I should have borrowed then.

The most recent buy was this year, just last month, near the $400 mark. The local exchanges (local to me) were either out of coins or seemed too high, so I wired the money out to several exchanges, then bought what I could.

The government actually allows you to go bankrupt and not have to pay back the banks.

This is a gift that keeps on giving.

Obviously the government does not know I have bitcoins, but how do I declare bankruptcy when I still have a lot of stuff? The banks will probably want to take my car first, or hold me to a payment restructuring, or simply just black list me.