Bitcoin Forum

 I will get this going in a bit.

I self mod it do to seriouscoin   and basically I tolerant anythings except insults so everyone feel free to comment

this was Nov 4 to Nov 18 below

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=846810.0


Okay  last diff was 1.76 %

This one starts out very low :

 bitcoincharts =  (-0.35%)
 bitcoinwisdom= (+1.1%)

my guess is both estimates are low and the coupon dump from bitmaintech will cause a bigger jump maybe as much as 4-6%

my gut tells me both are too low .  that bitmaintech's coupon give away will make numbers go over 4% 


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  >>>> (1.14%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,757,947,822 (+1.14%)
Adjust time:   After 1992 Blocks, About 13.7 days
Hashrate(?):   295,589,357 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.5 minutes
Updated:   19:55 (1.5 minutes ago)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com  >>>>>>>>> ( - .35%)


Blocks   330648
Total BTC   13.516M
 
Difficulty   40300030328
Estimated   40157430437 in 1992 blks
 
Network total   306385.988 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.46 / 558 s

it looks like going negative, at least for the moment!  ;D
Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,387,207,439 (+0.22%)

yeah but with bitmaintech issuing sooo many coupons  for s-3+ c-1 and s-4's I have to figure  they will sell a lot of them.

I ordered 2 s-3's  I sold 4 s-3 coupons and they ordered 4 s-3's I told another guy he got 8 coupons and he ordered 4 s-3's.  2  others  I know ordered some s-4's

So we are looking a jump in about 6 days to 8 days.

 Now if you think that bitmaintech is pulling all those orders from a mine  we will dip negative and slowly crawl back up to a low positive.

Also a big coin sale is going to happen from the feds on dec 4-6  50,000 coins  this may affect the price of coins which in turn affects growth.

Guys +/-2% in difficulty change can be caused just by variance (probability of finding blocks). So even if real hashrate didn't change at all, resulting difficulty will ALWAYS be different from previous one.

But I agree there is suspicious calm on hashrate charts :)

the calm before the storm ???

Maybe and I say Maybe
its a lesson learned and that mining is not always profitable
actually its not bitcoin itself but the speculation on bitcoin price...

The ones that got borred waiting or realised that price many not go up again
are out of the game and you can see this from sellers like the one selling on the
market place section currently 100pcs       SP-30 or companies like bitmain and spondoolies
making discounts

this + the btc acceptance!

yeah, its the end of the road for mining btc, price still dropping more will likely to quit and sell their miners.

It will be long time that we are going to discuss about this matter
difficulty seems to slow donw.
Guy from SP-tech has predicted this now its true

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,221,353,952 (-0.20%)

PARTYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY! ;D

He is not the only one pushing slow growth. But time will tell.

My guess is bitmaintech  is selling off a lot of farm gear at a bargain price.  They hope to put in some new s-5.  So after mining with s-3's and s-4's that are now on sale.  the upgrade to s-5's in their farm will start soon.

  This is good in a way   lets say they have 10ph  in s-3's and s-4's farming .  As they pull it off the market hash rate drops a bit.

  As we receive  the gear the  hashrate jumps back a bit. So we may have another good < 3-4% jump.

In the meantime my two s-3's shipped today so that is good.

Loving this week's difficulty.  If they could keep difficulty down during my winter months I would appreciate it :)

I personally expanded over winter.  We will see if trend continues if I made right decision.  I just could not pass free/cheap cooling with winter.

I grew and expanded last winter  shrank  this summer and grew back this fall-winter.

I think about them in terms of "cheaper heating" for the house rather that cheaper cooling.
By my calculations, I would be saving ~30% of my heating bill over the winter. Already, I had the same level of gas usage during October as per summer months (no seasonal increase) because I did not have to switch heating ON even with ~50-55F outside (it stayed at ~74F in the house thanks to just six S3).

here in NJ power costs drops from 16 to 13 cents for winter prices.  then with savings on heat  it comes to about 9.7 cents from Oct 1 to May 31.  So I boost my mining every fall and drop it every June 1

Except last winter btc price was double of todays price.... and i bet your mining hashrate does not scale up to the network difficulty either.

See the trend now?

and while you and I differ on a lot. we both agree that home miners will no longer ever be able to have a large part of the network in house.

my 16gb gpu farm in 2012 earned 2.2 coins a day. and burned 6k watts.

my 6.7th s-3 setup  earns 2.5 coins a month  and burns 5k watts.  my max power for winter is 7k  so I could go to 9th. 

that is 3.36 coins a month  at todays prices say 1200 usd before power.  as shitty as that is compared to  3 and 4 thousand a month before power last winter I can still pull a small profit.  and I now actively buy coins. much more then I ever did.

and right now as I type.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>>>>>    (-1.45%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (-1.68%)


 

If we truly get negative I will be extremly happy.  I can say none of my ROI excel sheets included a negative difficulty.

It does make sense though with low bitcoin price, those with hosting will be having a hard time with miners such as the old dragons.   

yeah s-2's and dragons at 1 watt or more will be tough for business purpose's we may be seeing a lot of 1-1.2 watt gear being shut down.

a 1.1 watt 1th  machine right now with 10 cents a kwatt earns a big fat 50 bucks a month. with power costs .

I am using free setup free internet and free machine

So basically a lot of 1- 1.5 watt gear is going off line.

My s-3's do  .77 and they can be lowered to .67 per gh so they can hang in until diff of 80  or so.

If you don't have .8 or better at 10 cents or better things are bleak.

I would like to see 2 or 3   minus 1% adjustments in a row.  only time will tell.

The key is does a company or 2 build a .3 or .4 watt machine and keep it to their company for mining only

Well it is still negative as of today.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty     =  (-0.99%)

How many miners are shipping? 
-Bitmaintech
-KNC???

Who is supplying the cloud miners?

Are people thinking that the Antminers are going to be sold soon and we'll see a significant increase when then new ones come online?  If so, 10% or more?

 lots of possibilities .

 maybe knc can really build a .1 watt machine and mine with it in house and  sell cloud shares.  maybe no one else is close to that.

  If I were antminer and in this spot

I would :

A )off load all my c-1  s-3 and s-4 gear with a sale.     hmmm coupons anyone.


B) beat knc to the release with  my .3  watt  s-5


Or we may be seeing what I predicated a few months back. It  may  be happening.

 Difficulty fixing with the top 4-7 builders of asics acting like a cartel.

It would generally be good news for the vast majority of miners if the difficulty does does decrease.

People who have cloud mining contracts who were forced to prepay for their electricity (eg pb mining) would benefit the most as their revenue from their hashpower will go exclusively to their account/wallet. 

Bitcoin Wisdom - Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,766,299,048 (-1.32%)

Looking more and more like a great time for miners.  I will have huge smile if we have even the most tiny negative change.

Now bitwisdom - Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,439,620,239 (-2.14%) keep on coming negative numbers :)

bitcoincharts is about  (-0.94%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,391,636,665 (-2.25%)

low price cuts out some small miners!?

maybe but if you have  14 cent power  and a 1.2 watt per gh   you make about 12 bucks a month on 1th  .  this knocks lots of people out.

if you have 9 cent power and a 2 watt per gh you make about 1 dollar a month.

So all the s-1's  are being terminated.



to run a s-1 at 140gh and 170 watts

you need at least 10 of them and 11 cent power to make about 50 bucks a month.   a lot of work for 50 bucks

lets say you have 7 cent power  those 10 s-1's make 100 bucks  a month.   

 I have to think all s-1's are going off line.  all 2 watt and most 1.2 watt gear.
I also think big companies want to upgrade slowly.

Say antminer sells 1000 s-3's   and adds s-5's in a bit not today.

1000 s-3's = 500th   and they replace 1000 s-1's   that is 200th so the gain for the home miner is 200gh to 500gh.   or 300gh x 1000 = 300th 

but antminer was mining them so on the front end the net work dropped 500th  so -500th and + 300th is a loss of 200th.

This is part of what has happened.

Small spike in the hash rate 2 days ago but it could not change the trend: looks like we really will see the first decrease after 1.5 year. However, people predicting on our site are still skeptical and some still predict against an decrease in this year: so you still get 1.3 times your money back if you predict on a decrease this year and it actually happens.

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/difficulty-will-decrease-in-2014/

(click on "show additional stats" to see how probability changed over time..)

beginers, who also need the heat, are buying the s1 also projects guys that make miners with the boards on raspberry pi
but most s1 are going out!

as is any gear at 1.2 or 1.5 watts .


 I would even think some people are turning off 1 watt gear.

 a s-2 owner or a dragon miner owner may be tired of the noise and small profit it is making him.

a 1tb machine using 1000 watts with .15 cent power will make 22 dollars this month
with 16 cent power it earns 15 dollars not much to bother running the gear.

todays numbers

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,419,474,800 (-2.18%)
Adjust time:   After 811 Blocks, About 5.8 days
Hashrate(?):   276,313,389 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 30.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   

still looking pretty good:
 

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



 Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,846,926,153  (-1.12%)

It shot back up: Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,181,170,149 (-0.29%)

I really want to see a negative.  Hopefully it goes down a little again.

now it is (-.19%)  so it may end up +1 or +2 oh well.

No one (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=860400.0)
Well, aside from pizza deliveries and the like.

+/-5% wouldn't be that surprising. If the current lull in the hash rate expansion continues then we'll almost certainly see a few larger difficulty changes entirely related to variance.

The thing to watch is the end of the previous difficulty period. If it was up the current trend then it tends to weight the estimates too high, if it was down then it tends to weight them too low. The last one was high so my guess is that we'll see the difficulty dip back down again.

Bitcoinwisdom extrapolates from a trend. Thats useful if there is a trend, but it exaggerates random fluctuations, as it will 'expect' a recent spike or drop to continue. Thats why its probably predicting too high difficulty now.

blockexplorer just calculates average hashrate and bases its prediction on that, which is useful if there is no trend, but only random fluctuations. Historically there is of course a very strong upwards trend which made blockexplorer consistently underestimate the next adjustment. But right now, I dont see a distinct trend, and I think it may be more accurate than bitcoinwisdom:

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate -> 39456072471 (-2.1%)

Mind you, I do hope Im wrong since I have a small friendly bet on difficulty going up this period, but I would bet Im gonna lose that bet :p.

To be honest, I've been watching the difficulty estimations change a little too much, and I'm convinced that all the sub 2% swings in the next estimated difficulty are just variance, plain and simple. Crossing my fingers, though, I really want to see the diff drop. For once my payouts might... actually... increase!  :o

 too many days away  to really know, but it moved to (-0.65%) about  40,037,572,339

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

some are lower
http://www.bitcoincharts.com

has it at 39807376875

this is (-1.22%)

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

39421642542  that is (-2.17%)

I agree, the very small changes in estimated next difficulty is likely variance in the network luck. Actual changes in difficulty of only ~2% would likely be that a net amount of miners would have been taken offline

 well with 3 days left we are still under  (-0.38%) at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

but a jump to +2 in the next 3 days would not surprise me.

Generally weekends are lull periods in new hashrate.

Though there could be a 5%+ jump in the following difficulty adjustment with the bulk pricing spondoolies and bitmain have for the weekend

Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,346,152,265 (+0.11%)
monday will tell us more :-\

spondoolies sp20's have been shipping the bitmaintech coupons had to help sell the s-4's.  So 1 or 2% jump looks pretty sure right now.

I purchased 2 sp20's and kind of want to get one more. I know I am not the only one doing this.

I expanded aswell.  With winter weather hard to pass up cheap/free cooling.   

It will be the big centers that really give us a jump.   I thought they would wait till next gen, but the SP gear appears to have quite the lifespan with it's underclock. Guess time will tell.

yeah .55 to .57 watts on underclock will really allow for  long use.

With my higher  power costs I need to get efficient gear.    

BTW I grabbed a third sp20.

even so, its virtually impossible to see 15%+ jumps happen many more times without an increase in BTC value. Its infeasible for people to routinely add that much to thier farms without rapidly hitting thermal or power limits and needing to rely on cloudmining or find a dedicated location. I think we will see
+0.2% this increase
+10% next
+6% after
+ 2% after, followed by a few more small increases unless hardware prices or bitcoin value changes

close to my thoughts..  
+1
+6
+5
+2

same reasoning as you.  

for me I max at 4-5k watts in the winter


2-3k watts in the summer well 1.5-2.5k watts in the summer

home miners like me must be less then 20% of the network.

 



but even big  (5ph or more)  guys would be morons to expand  if they are turning profits now.  

the only way is  they get a cheap 0.1 watt machine.  

by cheap;

 cheap to build not cheap quality.


todays numbers are


(+0.13%) about  40,353,975,917

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

some are lower
http://www.bitcoincharts.com

has it at 40285785777

this is (-0.035%)

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

       40039972197     that is (-0.645%)

Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,248,300,290 (-0.13%)
i think i stress myself too much ::)

yeah whatever it is tomorrow


 -1 to +1  are good numbers coin price is around 381 also good.



numbers are so good the jump will not be on the 1st it will be on the 2nd of dec.

I will be happy welcoming a 1 percent jump.   Wish they were all so low.  I don't think we will see negative, but I hope I'm wrong.

Some big players are changing equipment
enjoy it as long as it lasts...

I am.  and I am also converting s-3's to sp20's on a smaller scale.

winding down to the finish.  and it is dec 2 not dec 1  and that is always good as it means a low jump or no jump at all.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   >>>>>>>>>(-0.28%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,185,906,820 (-0.28%)
Adjust time:   After 37 Blocks, About 6.1 hours
Hashrate(?):   300,279,521 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.5 minutes
6 blocks: 59.0 minutes
Updated:   12:20 (3.0 minutes ago)



http://www.bitcoincharts.com      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (-0.41%)


Blocks   332603
Total BTC   13.565M
 
Difficulty   40300030328
Estimated   40133512214 in 37 blks
 
Network total   307199.681 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.39 / 563 s

So about -0.35% unless 100PH was added right this minute. I'm pretty damn happy about this, considering most of my profitability calculations made 3-6 months ago were assuming 4-7% jumps at this point in time.

I think the next jump may be fairly big though with the influx of the black Friday deals by bitmain and spondoolies. it's likely that each company sold 5-10 PH during that sale

well I grabbed 3x  sp20's that will be about 4th underclocked and about 2190 watts

I know that at least 1000 s-3's and s-4's sold I could figure the exact number looking at btc addresses.



I know at least 2000 btc was sent to spondoolies  addresses that is 1000 sp20's.  I looked at this address


https://blockchain.info/address/15QTGigFgnMpqcg5tQwBszQ94me98ZTVkr      and  some others .

 So to think 10ph will add in the dec 2 - dec 14 diff period is reasonable.  but 10ph is now 1/30 of the network so that is 3% jump.  My hope is under 5/6% for the next jump.

Around 3 hours till change on btcwisdom: 40,047,488,260 (-0.63%). Will be a interesting few hours.

I think some of the S4's might be on the network already.  I think the SP20's will be brand new  on network over blackfriday sales.  We will see I'm hoping less then 5 percent on next jump.

10ph is from spondoolies alone. Its likely bitmain had similar sales on the s4, and that knc/bitfury may both be incrementally adding to thier private mines also.

Nevertheless, it's safe to call this as a negative jump *party*

yeah 6 blocks to go

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  >> (-0.70%)

It looks like we are going to have our first decrease in >?>
(I kind of forgot that part it was before 2013 before the split blockchain)
In any case that was quite some time ago.

beer? champagne? wine? :o
it's like new year's eve!

~ 2 blocks to go we are BELOW 40BIL. Wow.

-0.80% maybe
i keep pressing f5 on blockchain.info and bitcoinwisdom like donkeykong!

Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,949,747,499 (-0.87%) ;D

It's beautiful for the smalls miners  ::)

Dec 02 2014    40,007,470,271    -0.73%    286,384,627 GH/s

Fuck you discus!

Partyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy ;D

new difficulty 40,007,470,271 or -0.73%

Edit: damn you maverick  :)

The price of bitcoin is not likely to drop?

I got no crystal ball to see the future.
Don't think it will go down, it might be from all the shoppings for winter holidays, it might be a bigger player and price rising...
Difficulty will have no big impact on the price.
I still ain't got a crystal ball ;D

Thank you for your answer , so I'll go to a seer =)

Not bad first drop in almost 2 years and I ordered 4 sp20's ..  life look's good today. Time for a new thread.

Dec 02 2014    40,007,470,271    -0.73%    286,384,627 GH/s

Time to celebrate?

yep here is the first part of the party new thread!!!



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=881394.new#new


and locking this one.

one more to be sorted.