Nov 18th to Dec 1 diff thread (-0.35%) to (1.14%)

[judypug1956]

Well it is still negative as of today.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty     =  (-0.99%)

[nrd525]

How many miners are shipping? 
-Bitmaintech
-KNC???

Who is supplying the cloud miners?

Are people thinking that the Antminers are going to be sold soon and we'll see a significant increase when then new ones come online?  If so, 10% or more?

[philipma1957]

How many miners are shipping?  
-Bitmaintech
-KNC???

Who is supplying the cloud miners?

Are people thinking that the Antminers are going to be sold soon and we'll see a significant increase when then new ones come online?  If so, 10% or more?

 lots of possibilities .

 maybe knc can really build a .1 watt machine and mine with it in house and  sell cloud shares.  maybe no one else is close to that.

  If I were antminer and in this spot

I would :

A )off load all my c-1  s-3 and s-4 gear with a sale.     hmmm coupons anyone.


B) beat knc to the release with  my .3  watt  s-5


Or we may be seeing what I predicated a few months back. It  may  be happening.

 Difficulty fixing with the top 4-7 builders of asics acting like a cartel.

[Argwai96]

If we truly get negative I will be extremly happy.  I can say none of my ROI excel sheets included a negative difficulty.

It does make sense though with low bitcoin price, those with hosting will be having a hard time with miners such as the old dragons.   

It would generally be good news for the vast majority of miners if the difficulty does does decrease.

People who have cloud mining contracts who were forced to prepay for their electricity (eg pb mining) would benefit the most as their revenue from their hashpower will go exclusively to their account/wallet. 

[notlist3d]

Bitcoin Wisdom - Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,766,299,048 (-1.32%)

Looking more and more like a great time for miners.  I will have huge smile if we have even the most tiny negative change.

[notlist3d]

Now bitwisdom - Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,439,620,239 (-2.14%) keep on coming negative numbers

[philipma1957]

Now bitwisdom - Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,439,620,239 (-2.14%) keep on coming negative numbers

bitcoincharts is about  (-0.94%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,391,636,665 (-2.25%)

low price cuts out some small miners!?

[philipma1957]

Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,391,636,665 (-2.25%)

low price cuts out some small miners!?

maybe but if you have  14 cent power  and a 1.2 watt per gh   you make about 12 bucks a month on 1th  .  this knocks lots of people out.

if you have 9 cent power and a 2 watt per gh you make about 1 dollar a month.

So all the s-1's  are being terminated.



to run a s-1 at 140gh and 170 watts

you need at least 10 of them and 11 cent power to make about 50 bucks a month.   a lot of work for 50 bucks

lets say you have 7 cent power  those 10 s-1's make 100 bucks  a month.   

 I have to think all s-1's are going off line.  all 2 watt and most 1.2 watt gear.
I also think big companies want to upgrade slowly.

Say antminer sells 1000 s-3's   and adds s-5's in a bit not today.

1000 s-3's = 500th   and they replace 1000 s-1's   that is 200th so the gain for the home miner is 200gh to 500gh.   or 300gh x 1000 = 300th 

but antminer was mining them so on the front end the net work dropped 500th  so -500th and + 300th is a loss of 200th.

This is part of what has happened.

[fairlay]

Small spike in the hash rate 2 days ago but it could not change the trend: looks like we really will see the first decrease after 1.5 year. However, people predicting on our site are still skeptical and some still predict against an decrease in this year: so you still get 1.3 times your money back if you predict on a decrease this year and it actually happens.

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/difficulty-will-decrease-in-2014/

(click on "show additional stats" to see how probability changed over time..)

[mavericklm]

beginers, who also need the heat, are buying the s1 also projects guys that make miners with the boards on raspberry pi
but most s1 are going out!

[philipma1957]

beginers, who also need the heat, are buying the s1 also projects guys that make miners with the boards on raspberry pi
but most s1 are going out!

as is any gear at 1.2 or 1.5 watts .


 I would even think some people are turning off 1 watt gear.

 a s-2 owner or a dragon miner owner may be tired of the noise and small profit it is making him.

a 1tb machine using 1000 watts with .15 cent power will make 22 dollars this month
with 16 cent power it earns 15 dollars not much to bother running the gear.

todays numbers

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,419,474,800 (-2.18%)
Adjust time:   After 811 Blocks, About 5.8 days
Hashrate(?):   276,313,389 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 30.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   

[judypug1956]

still looking pretty good:
 

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



 Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,846,926,153  (-1.12%)

[notlist3d]

still looking pretty good:
 

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



 Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,846,926,153  (-1.12%)

It shot back up: Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,181,170,149 (-0.29%)

I really want to see a negative.  Hopefully it goes down a little again.

[philipma1957]

still looking pretty good:
 

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



 Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,846,926,153  (-1.12%)

It shot back up: Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,181,170,149 (-0.29%)

I really want to see a negative.  Hopefully it goes down a little again.

now it is (-.19%)  so it may end up +1 or +2 oh well.

[Puppet]

Who is supplying the cloud miners?

No one
Well, aside from pizza deliveries and the like.

[davejh]

Guys +/-2% in difficulty change can be caused just by variance (probability of finding blocks). So even if real hashrate didn't change at all, resulting difficulty will ALWAYS be different from previous one.

But I agree there is suspicious calm on hashrate charts

+/-5% wouldn't be that surprising. If the current lull in the hash rate expansion continues then we'll almost certainly see a few larger difficulty changes entirely related to variance.

[davejh]

still looking pretty good:
 

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



 Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,846,926,153  (-1.12%)

It shot back up: Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,181,170,149 (-0.29%)

I really want to see a negative.  Hopefully it goes down a little again.

now it is (-.19%)  so it may end up +1 or +2 oh well.

The thing to watch is the end of the previous difficulty period. If it was up the current trend then it tends to weight the estimates too high, if it was down then it tends to weight them too low. The last one was high so my guess is that we'll see the difficulty dip back down again.

[Puppet]

The thing to watch is the end of the previous difficulty period. If it was up the current trend then it tends to weight the estimates too high, if it was down then it tends to weight them too low. The last one was high so my guess is that we'll see the difficulty dip back down again.

Bitcoinwisdom extrapolates from a trend. Thats useful if there is a trend, but it exaggerates random fluctuations, as it will 'expect' a recent spike or drop to continue. Thats why its probably predicting too high difficulty now.

blockexplorer just calculates average hashrate and bases its prediction on that, which is useful if there is no trend, but only random fluctuations. Historically there is of course a very strong upwards trend which made blockexplorer consistently underestimate the next adjustment. But right now, I dont see a distinct trend, and I think it may be more accurate than bitcoinwisdom:

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate -> 39456072471 (-2.1%)

Mind you, I do hope Im wrong since I have a small friendly bet on difficulty going up this period, but I would bet Im gonna lose that bet :p.

[armedmilitia]

To be honest, I've been watching the difficulty estimations change a little too much, and I'm convinced that all the sub 2% swings in the next estimated difficulty are just variance, plain and simple. Crossing my fingers, though, I really want to see the diff drop. For once my payouts might... actually... increase!