Bitcoin Forum

Hi everyone,

This is my first post on the forum and I just wanted to share some technical analysis on bitcoin price.

The price as time of posting is $358.05 USD.

Last year in December the same coin was valued at 3.24 times today's price peaking at around $1160, or close to it.

Such drops in bitcoin price are not new in the history of the coin. Almost and exact drop happened at the beginning of 2013, when some people too were calling for the end of the coin. A massive selloff from $250's to the $70's. The factor is about the same as the current drop in price at around 3.4.

Of course, a drop from a thousand USD to the hundreds will get your attention. Percentage wise they are equal. And I am sure if we go back to later years we will find similar drops.

OK, so now to the current state of the coin based data form the surge in price from Nov 2013 to today, chart weekly:

1. The coin has been on an absolute downtrend, regardless of the little price bumps the trend has not been broken even once. SAR points indicate this. Started Dic 16th, 2013 and even today's data shows a bear trend.

2. The coin has burned through pretty much every weak support levels leaving behind three strong resistance points. $340, $440, and $624. The coin has spent about 8 weeks floating around these prices while burning quick though the spaces in between. The next bottom is around $200, and then $86.

3. The probabilities of heading to $86 are about the same as heading to$624, see the chart below. But the odds are in favor of heading higher to $440. Without sound historical data around these levels we are left with speculation only. So we would need to think or look for catalysts that will either drive the price down or up. I will leave the speculation to the forum to generate ideas.

4. Bitcoin's falling prices have charted a very nice pattern (or two)... One can immediately see what we call a Falling Wedge. And perhaps a Pennant. These tow resolve harshly on either direction up or down. Tracing the lines and we conclude we are almost at the end of this wedge or pennant and the price of bitcoin will resolve hard in one direction. Again, we need to look at what would cause the price to go up or fall.

5. Tracing both patterns we can generate a couple coin prices to keep an eye on the next couple weeks. We want to see a bounce of $305 if there is such  drop, and if it doesn’t hold, we want to see bounce from $252. Hopefully it doesn’t have to dive that low but it would be a great opportunity to buy coins.

6. Ok, enough of coin prices for now. MACD, a buying or selling indicator, is about to cross to indicate a buying opportunity. This has to resolve first before buying coins, unless you want to bet on a positive outcome. RSI, which indicates oversold/overbought conditions is pretty much in a very very oversold condition. In fact, on 9/29 RSI touched a level 30, which indicates greatly oversold conditions and since it has bounced. Both of these gives me an indication of a rally or at least that the coin can rally a healthy push from here.

Now, in a nutshell, the coin has one or two last support levels to bounce off $305 and $252. I, of course would be a buyer at these levels, but MACD and RSI tells me the coin is in a healthy mode to rally. Oversold is a technical state that stocks and coins don’t like and usually bounce from. So the coin may not drop that far.

At today’s level I would hold the coins we have and look for confirmation of a rally on MACD and SAR points. I would buy big on confirmation of a SAR only. MACD confirmation may indicate a small rally to $440 or even $624 before heading back down again.

And to leave with a sense of historical comparison, in 2013 the coin also created a falling wedge with a bounce around the fib line  0.764 ($69) before rallying to $1100’s. Why is this important? At today's price and on the last 6 weeks, the coin has bounced and played around $340. Which for this last rally, it is the Fib Line 0.764. The same level before the huge huge rally last year.

Thanks, and let me know if you have any questions. I’ll be more than happy to create more charts, or to share ideas on trading. Also, I would love to hear ideas on price catalysts.

The price of Bitcoin at the time of posting is $360.57 USD

*Edited in bold

https://i.imgur.com/0up7rC5.png
  

Thanks for the quotes :) I'm just sharing analysis on the coin.

So basically if I ignore everything said and just focus on one point i can amuse by this time next year the bitcoin price will be between $86 and $260. Those prices would still make many people wealth if the damn difficulty didn't rise so high so fast this year. I would have been wealthy if my home miners didn't become obsolete so fast.

So that's the reason why I wanted to share some technical analysis. Difficulty versus price.

Bitcoin is much alike Gold in so many ways. And mining is one of them. Need to invest hard to gain hard. Difficulty levels makes it impossible for people without the hardware to mine anything while being profitable.

But Bitcoin trades much like any stock... in fact, I would say Bitcoin is now a little more predictable than most stocks. The reason, it trades mostly on algorithms and patterns. There is no Downgrade or Upgrade by a firm (that I know) that moves bitcoin's price.

So there is trading. You'd be surprised how many people trade bitcoin.

I don't see the end of Bitcoin like a lot of people are trying to tell you. But I don't hoard bitcoins. But I do save a coin or two.

I think we may be nearing a bottom based on the technicals. I bought some yesterday through CoinBase, and I will add more if it starts going to the levels I mentioned above.

GL

Bitcoin price update below

Today's price action has actually moved MACD above for a BUY signal. Circled in red on the middle chart

If this week closes like it, I would be a bigger buyer.

In fact, I would probably add a coin or two at this position.

https://i.imgur.com/7WhygMP.png

LOL

TA simply doesn't work on bitcoin. Trend trading might work for a while.

Tell that to all the traders.

In fact, I think that bitcoin can be more predictable than stocks.

current inventory of bitocin market is increasing due to the massive selloff in the Chinese nation, so the possibilities for bitcoin exchange prices in the world market will increasingly fluctuating, hopefully it is fleeting ...  ::)

Interesting, do you have any links to look at these volumes?

These are the kind of news that can bring the coin lower.

BTW, BTC heading to $400 here in a day or two. Will update as needed.

As a retired Forex trader who specialized in commodities you must first realize there is no possible technical or fundamental analysis that can be done in the crypto world right now. An analysis in Forex is completed by data that is represented by a factual demand re-occurring every year or month at the same time in addition to news events that trigger a rush of buys or sells in a specific market. Every year at the same time something happens in a fiat currency that moves its price, also every month at the same time something happens where a demand is created for a fiat currency by another country that enables the ability to create good standing analysis of a fiat currency. At the present moment there is no true demand for Bitcoin or any cryupto curtrency, there is no re-occurring events that would lead anyone to make a good analysis that would be a tool used in trading the currency. No one needs to trade their cash for Bitcoins because they have to buy something from someone or another country that would lead to the demand for the coins. Crypto markets are nothing like Forex markets. In Crypto its just a guessing game and a little luck to get in on a deal at the right time. Its nothing like the Forex market where an educated  and informed trade can be attempted from news and past history market movements.

However your setup was very professionally put together.

Thanks cyberpinoy

I agree with pretty much everything you said about comparing crypto to fiat. There's really no country thats currently dependent on Bitcoin to survive, so there is no demand, and there is no need for it for economical growth for any country or entity. So to invest on it or trade it is pretty much up as a guess.

However I do think Bitcoin offers a solution to a world problem.

But let's set that aside.

The reason I am applying TA as would do a day trader or market investor is because Bitcoin has traded following these patterns. I agree Crypto markets re nothing like forex markets. But I know there are thousands of peoples trading bitcoin. Possibly ten's or hundreds who knows. And these are Traders, real ones. And these guys are not glued to theirs screens all the time. They trade with algorithms and software. And these follow market like patterns, sell alerts, buy alerts. And this is why I mentioned I think Bitcoin is and may get more predictable, until it is not of course.

A lie that everyone repeats and holds becomes the truth. A pattern that everyone uses becomes a trend, and viceversa.

Thanks again for your comments. And please feel free to add as I would really benefit from tips and help from a knowledgeable person like yourself.

BTW, Bitcoin price at time of posting was $380 with a top at $394 Bitstamp. I mentioned Bitcoin was heading towards $400, I was shy $6 USD. But the chart still shows and up trend so we may break that.

it's technical analysis or market analysis.?

technical analysis... Market would be too complicated.. The chart price, volume is form Bitstamp.



Good news is Bitcoin is still range bound. It will be a very interesting December.

0.764 holding it nice.

Bearish SAR points are been wasted here as the coin goes up in price. This may signal a bullish sentiment.

https://i.imgur.com/DOD1OAN.png

This is the best BTC technical analysis I've seen on this forum site, well done!

A few questions:

1) Wouldn't it be best to compare BTC to fiat (rather than gold) due to it's use as currency in addition to an investment?

2) Do you think long term use of BTC will trend toward investment rather than medium of exchange given the barriers of entry for some new user of BTC? E.g., a new user has to exchange fiat for BTC and the use it for goods and services, which is a pain and convoluted especially when a new user may have trouble understanding the purpose or benefit of using BTC in the first place.

Perhaps BTC will become more of an investment, which would be quite cool.

If you need help publishing your analysis on a weekly basis I can help arrange the right web design and hosting, PM me.

Thanks POSSUM577!

1) I personally think that is it both... A fiat type and a Gold type... Gold, Just because we assign value to bitcoin based on demand, rarity, difficulty to create or extract. And Fiat because it is a means of payment backed by the miners...

But Bitcoin is also a system: Bitcoin itself is the method of paying or sending money to someone, bitcoin is also the method of using that money sent to buy things... and Bitcoin stores value and one can say it is an investment.

One interesting note is that Bitcoin Peaked when it touched Gold price. 1oz of Gold was worth 1BTC.. A huge accomplishment by the Bitcoin community.... I think hat is when people thought Bitcoin is not worth more than an ounce of gold.. and they woke up from this frenzy and said, enough.. I'm selling.. And that created a snow ball effect.

2) For Bitcoin to be an investment... it needs to appreciate in value.. and we know Volume (coins purchased, traded, stored, etc.) is what will make that happen. In order to have volume, we need to solve the issues you described above. The need for this redundant steps to get Bitcoin.


I personally see it as an investment, I don't go out purchasing stuff with Bitcoin, I have had but not anymore. I am very long on Bitcoin. I will start using it to purchase when we touch $1000 again. But once we hit that target who knows... we may see higher prices.

Our generation is smart. Mobile payments are coming. They will be how we do business. Younger generations, the High school, elementary school and KG kids will grow knowing mobile payments. There will be no magical wave of a phone or scan of a QR code to get money. For them this would be just the norm. And Bitcoin will be one more way of paying or sending money. They will understand this no problem.

As Bitcoin grabs the attention of millions more.. then the coins will have to spread. Just four years ago you heard of guys mining 1000 Bitcoins in a week. And holding thousands of coins. Now it is rare when you find someone with 10 coins. Most will carry 1 or a faction. This ratio will keep going. People will only have 100 Satoshis or less. So us with full coins will be powerful.

Bitcoin can be divided 10^−8... and every little Satoshi is as important as the whole coin. Every little one can be used as a proof of something...We just need to give it the value to that proof.

Thanks for the offer. Let me think about it. I don't want to impose anything on you and wouldn't want to have you spend money on hosting and web design. I appreciate the offer. If you think there is something of value that we can do, then I am in.

There is a nice trend in the last few days that has cerated a line of support (RED line below).

This may signal the up trend that I described above. My guess is that the chances of heading to $440 are bigger than falling.

Again, we still need MACD confirmation on the weekly.

https://i.imgur.com/7hGIZxOl.png

An update:

The Key price to watch this week is $369. And a +/- 3% range from that price.

MACD weekly confirmed an up trend. Stochastic supports that movement and RSI is heading slowly into a more healthy area above over sold conditions.

With a decent volume Bitcoin can see a good rally here for investors. I would buy right here if you were planning on buying anyways. If you are in the need of cash and needs to sell, I would just give it a week for a good price point.

ON a long term view, Bitcoin can still rally if it stays above the lower blue line, and should rally if it goes above the green line.


https://i.imgur.com/EjoZaY1.png

Thx for the effort for forum with all the pictures.

But I do not think this analysis will overweight fundamentals like flooding of market with seized of BTC's or Paypal going for BTC etc... One of those events can be a trigger for something crazy in both ways. Just my 2 cents.

if technical analysis could tell us the future then everyone with a half brain would be rich.

In Bitcoin as in with Stocks and Market, TA helps us understand the trends based on actual historical data. Believe me, I make money on the stock market this way and so does a lot of people. So please don't discredit the work.

But you are absolutely right. Although what you call for are events that have nothing to do with the organic growth of Bitcoin.

Stocks have those too. Look at Sand Disk stock after Earning Report in July, Kors in July too... The stocks dropped like shit after earnings releases. Those are events that cannot be predicted (unless you are an insider or have gain to insider data.)

But every time TA tells you when to go in, and when o sell. Why? Because everyone uses about the same tools. So a lie multiplied by millions becomes the truth.

Thanks for the comments as it helps the discussion. I will be updating.

Well, I do not buy that. Millions of people use the same tools, but other millions of people bet against. So yes, I am very sceptical here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Farol_Bar_problem

And even if was true what you said about TA, which I doubt, it does not happen on nonliquid market like BTC, where just few bitcoins traded move the line significantly and TA gurus did not reach it (yet).

Wow you are really clueless...

But glad you are skeptical. We all need to be.

Good thing that I am trying to prove a point with actual data and charts... not just whatever comes out of my ass based on mood of the day like many other here.

Watching a pretty cool battle fought right now to conquer a position above the 100 moving day average!

This is No Man's Land right now

Go Bitcoin!

https://i.imgur.com/VA2BIUK.png

i say down

Looking really good here at $380...Half a day to go
https://i.imgur.com/ofVBgUBl.png

Confirmation today on MACD, Stochiastics about to cross over, and RSI is about the right place for a good rally. Bitcoin has conquered the 50 moving average! But this is only one day battle.

My only concern is that people may start to take profits here. Since I started the post at $358, one could have gain anywhere from 6% to 8%.

But Bitcoin is due for a rally. Specially with all the global uncertainty.

https://i.imgur.com/wwnmp3w.png

and +DMI is dominant.

The graphs are as good as anything else that comes from ass. Tables or graphs are nothing just a gunsmoke in 99.999..% of cases in this world. Every shithead broker will show me 1000 pictures only because he wants my money and because he has nothing else to offer.

What only counts is money. Money bet on the trust and won more times than lost. Just put your bets here, make some ROI from few thousands bets to avoid lucky strikes, then I will bother to comprehend and apologise. Until then it is really just another ass-talk.

And my concern yesterday was confirmed... People took profits here pushing Bitcoin's price down.

My Pink Line, the first support is still intact. so that's a positive. Also, the Red line trend is still intact but may break tomorrow.

Thanks Bagatell, DMI is positive but trending down which mas cause some down pressure :)

We need to close above the 50 day moving average. I guess will find out soon.

https://i.imgur.com/FEjrtvH.png

... Everyone thinks they deserve an apology for something.. man relax, you don't have to post or follow this thread.

As I said on December 3rd, people took profits driving the price of Bitcoin lower.

The sell off has been short lived but was strong enough to put a down pressure on the coin that now should trail a little lower.

But the great thing is that the support line I drew on Dec 1st is still holding and it seems to be very strong. If this line does not break we should be in great shape for now. (Pink dotted line to $369)

So no time to panic for the trader, and nothing to worry for the investor...

https://i.imgur.com/XYSJfDS.png

How can you apply classic TA to Bitcoin? the price is too volatile. How does this work? I want to be able to learn to predict the price, but the price always does something strange.

Hi Calchuchesta, Yes, indeed the price is to volatile. And makes it hard to apply TA to make any type of predictions. But anything that is traded using computers is bound to follow some type of algorithm and the rules of any market.

So how can one apply TA to Bitcoin?  Well, the same could be said about half the stocks traded in the market and most of the OTC stocks. It is all about having a long term view, knowledge about current state of the market, and then applying TA to find trends. Believe me, they all have them and they all follow them.

Ultimately, trading in the market or crypto is a bet. If one had to participate, at least one must make an intelligent one.

Since I started the trend I predicted the bounce to $400s, which was shy of it at around $380. I also mentioned that the coin was going to experience a sell off, which it did. All based on MACD and Stochastic.

As I said before, news triumph over any TA. And manipulation exists on any market including bitcoin (just look at what the alter coins where doing from December 2013 to March 2014.) Pump and dumps were rampant.  so one has to be very careful.

Since the start of this thread I had Dec 18th as a day to confirm action. (Pink vertical line)

Well, that day is today and it's turning to be a sell off day. With Bitcoin prices plunging to prices below the support at $369.

If the day closes in prices below that level, the mid term trending line (red line) will be broken and we can consider buying when bitcoin goes to lower prices in the next day or so.

The next support (strong support) is the fib line at 0.764 ($340). I would watch this closely and consider buying at this level is there is any confirmation of a bounce.

The final support/trend line is the blue line also in the original post, which bring Bitcoin prices to around the $320s. Which is where I would definitely place a buy order.

Lastly, the day chart shows a down trend but the weekly chart is still signaling an uptrend. This may be a small storm to man through.

https://i.imgur.com/3QDO1nU.png

There is a small resistance at $350, but it probably won't hold.

BTC is heading to $340

BTC bounced at around $343 but the red support trend line was broken badly.

Soft support at $350... but it may not hold.

The coin now looks like is heading down. I believe it will play around $340 before deciding on the next move.

The price is trying.If BTC can make a double bottom the prices can increase.

To be fair it could have gone either way. Granted it was perhaps a little early for the next 7 monthly surge, assuming they're still happening. But judging by the shape emerging its now looking increasingly like another blip as in Oct. But guess it could still surprise us more ...

BootstrapCoinDev,

Agreed, it could have gone either way... Closing above 100 MA for any stock and bitcoin is such an accomplishment. But Like I said before, it also calls for people to cash profits.

Bitcoin Update

Ok, I think I will pad myself on the back. The lines I have created since the start of the post have remained and have predicted the price of Bitcoin very closely. (The lines have not changed since the beginning of the post.)

Pink Vertical Line on December 8th. I traced this day while back based on previous support lines and a trend line (red). Bitcoin was supposed to keep the line intact but it broke down exactly on December 8th.

Trace line at 0.764 ($340.77). Bitcoin broke the up trend but bounced hard off this line maintaining the support line. Which now has become a very strong line at $340.

Now, some follow up predictions: If Bitcoin brakes down through $340, we will see a test of the low $300s and possibly high $290s towards the end of December. On a bullish scenario, Bitcoin may try to go back to above the 100 MA which means a $360 price.

https://i.imgur.com/QqTIT2o.png

I think this analysis could be true but could be wrong, this happens due to no regulation on bitcoin on how to limit the sale and how the bitcoin purchase limit, if the collector sells bitcoin bitcoin massive meal will decrease bitcoin prices and vice versa in case of large-scale purchases will eat bitcoin price increases, so it needs to be regulation in the sale and purchase of bitcoin, it is to maintain price stability bitcoin itself ...  ::)

I think bitcoin price depends on how the stock market fluctuated, when a lot of people who buy bitcoin in the stock market ate bitcoin exchange rates will go up, but if a lot of people who sell the bitcoin bitcoin exchange rates will go down, I hope that the collectors do not sell bitcoin that they had massively, just in moderation ...  ;D

cutesakura/aronnov,

Precisely, that is how pretty much any market works (buy/sell to price interaction) and without regulation like you said, well, this is what we get. A random price action and high volatility.

But regulation (centralization) is what we really want to avoid with Bitcoin. Right?

Although some kind of regulation exists within the Bitcoin universe. Satoshi, the Winklevoss brothers, among others, hold huge bags of coins. Any of them decide to drop their bags and we will see the market collapse. Why aren't they selling? Because they may be all together in this. So a small group that holds the majority of the goods is basically a controlled environment.

Trying to figure out the above is beyond any of us, we can only provide our thoughts and ideas. Which is also good, makes us smarter.

Ultimately, what I am trying to prove here is that Bitcoin does follow some of the rules of the trading market. The reason? Well, because it is traded.

BTC must hold the fib retracement of 0.764 @ $340.77 in order to move up in the near term.

The news of Microsoft beginning to accept the coin for game payments should help. I believe the coin will take a relatively big dip sometime in the next week or so. Then it will rally over the 100 MA.

Don't ever doubt the power of the lines!

https://i.imgur.com/gNQzp7A.png

As predicted, the fib line at .764 was violated so we see this price action.

BTC could test $305 or lower, but should maintain the blue line trend up.


https://i.imgur.com/uakPZRH.png

If you still doubt the power of Technical analysis, well, there is nothing I cans how you to make you change your mind.

Note: None of the traced lines have been changed or adjusted since the beginning of this post. Only new lines have been created and never moved.

1) So there it is, the drop to $300s on the 13th, the "big dip" called on Dec 16th and the Support lines created since the start and called for on the 17th have been spot on.

2) As I mentioned before, wait for a great time to buy Bitcoin, and this should be it. Just give it another day for price action confirmation.

What to watch:

$305 heavy support
Blue line heavy support
$320 now a resistance
$340 a huge resistance that will only break with heavy volume or else won't hold

The Bull
MACD trying to curve up.
RSI at completely oversold condition.
Stock still showing a down trend which is healthy for a rally.
Long term support completely alive.

The Bear
If the support line does not hold. We are in big big trouble.

https://i.imgur.com/HR87k51.png

The power of the lines!

BTC bounced off a long term trend traced since the beginning of this post.

Vey bullish.

We need a positive SAR to confirm the rally up to $340.

https://i.imgur.com/a34w6Ej.png

The fact that it went right through the traced line at 0.764 get me a little worried.

I may have to go back and understand what happened that day, anything on the news that may have drove a panic sell.

I wouldn't worry to much though, BTC has broken the lines before just to go right back to it like a magnet.

I would BUY right here if not done so already.

I'll place an order on my CoinBase today.

BTC may go back to touch the blue trend line in the next days but the trend remains intact and is very powerful. So I expect to trend up with it and to go back to $340 and head a little higher.

I can now safely say that overtime BTC price touches my blue trend line, you should BUY. And Sell above the $340 price if you think the rally is fading.

Also, I believe that first thing January or half way through the month we will see a clear indication of where Bitcoin will head for the rest of the year.

Amazing how these predictions made on Nov 23 still hold.

I highlight two take aways...

Take a look at the last paragraph and do some analysis on your own. Think of any great catalysts (Russia recession, Europe stagnation, all the QE's happening around the world, Gold, etc.) These may be the great push for another rally.

You think BTC has never experiences drops, and near death experiences? it has always had them. Think about BTC at $0.05 USD prices... they too believed a jump to $1 was incredible. You think BTC can't jump 20X again? Think again.

As always, and always, be careful, mindful and respectful of BTC.

How centralized bitcoin mining is nowadays?

I have no idea... but please elaborate a little more if you know the subject.

What I do know is that ASIC miners started to "decentralize" the network (if I understand correctly) and the recent price action has helped this method for mining but we may be heading towards a break point where price and difficulty levels may give the advantage to powerful miners that are already setup, as opposed to new miners coming in and having to invest heavily now.

Maybe this is the info you are looking for:
https://blockchain.info/pools

The usual situation, 3 or 4 pools have the majority .

that unknown with 20% is scary, what's this china farm?

The only consistent thing that has actually made people money (including myself) so far is to "Keep mining".

Keep mining regardless of what pundits, the media, the techno-geeks or the hash rate gurus say.

JUST KEEP MINING !!!! I don't give a rat's behind about technical analysis, price of chips, btc to $$ conversion rate or the price of tea in China.

You don't make ROI by stopping your mining.

I have been out a few days due to the holidays, but I'm back and see that the lines and predictions still hold.

The blue line is still intact and it is becoming much stronger.

I mentioned that any playing around the blue line is an alarm to Buy Bitcoin and I still think this holds. At these prices I will place and order myself through CoinBase.

At this point we are getting positive SAR points which indicates positive move. If you can risk a little I would buy right here right now. If you are looking for buying Bitcoin to use it for purchasing goods, then I would suggest to wait to see how the price resolves in the next day or so.

Do you remember the Red Line? and how I predicted a huge price action on December 12th, well that did happened exactly on that day and Bitcoin crushed that support level (Thumb down icon in the chart) and now it finds itself testing the long time support, the Blue Line.

In the hour chart, you can see how clearly Bitcoin price has been crushed in every attempt to send prices higher. Someone is unloading big and someone really wants Bitcoin price at these levels or lower. But the fact that Bitcoin finds strong buyers picking up the cheap coins lead me to believe there is very strong support. And the coins are leaving the weak hands for stronger long term hands which is good for the whole bitcoin ecosystem.

https://i.imgur.com/qUIHFgc.png

Yesterday Bitcoin struggled to keep itself above the Blue Line, today it has finally caved and went through it.

What does it mean? We may visit prices as low as $305 pretty soon.

The confirmation would be a close of the day below the blue line, with MACD gapping.

The Blue Line is a very strong support line. In order for Bitcoin to rally, we need to see a price action able this line with positive SAR points.

https://i.imgur.com/d5HcYOm.png

Well, if you are still against Technical Analysis on Bitcoin, well, take a look again.

The Blue support line was a strong line that if broken would make Bitcoin fall hard. And yes, it did brake, and yes Bitcoin did drop in price... Hard. See the Shite Skinny Arrow.

Being such  strong support, Bitcoin lingered around it undecided finding buyers at these levels but once these buyers were gone, then the price collapsed.

So where do we go from here? The next line is $240, yup, that far down but only a few dollars away. But my guess is that we go far down below even more. To touch the green line part of the falling wedge.

On my first post I described the two scenarios, a Pennant and a Falling Wedge. We are back on the Falling Wedge.

Note: None of the lines below have been adjusted since the first post. I have only added lines and traces as we go.

Cheers

https://i.imgur.com/RBeE9Vx.png

Hi everyone,

Figured this might be a good place for this.

I recently did some basic moving average analysis. If anyone considers moving average crossovers as fair indicators, we are definitely looking bearish with BTC prices going into 2015.

Below are dates for 50/200 MA "death cross" events dating back to May of 2014. A death cross is where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average and its reverse is known as a "golden cross". It is worth noting that none of these crossovers have been reversed as of this posting. So I would advise against buying into Bitcoin for some time still.

Recent 50/200-day MA "death cross" events:

Exchange	Currency	Date
Bitfinex	BTC/USD	May 30
Bitcoin.de	BTC/EUR	June 2
BTC-e	BTC/EUR	June 8
CaVirtex	BTC/CAD	Oct 24
Huobi	BTC/CNY	June 2
Bitstamp	BTC/USD	Dec 20
BTC China	BTC/CNY	Dec 20

data from Bitcoinwisdom.com

Very nice, thanks for sharing some data and actual facts.

The golden crosses have appeared but short lived as you can see on my charts takes following Bitstamp prices.

I agree with you that now would not be the right time to buy bitcoin based on the charts and historical data.

I wouldn't discourage traders to hop in and ride this short lived rallies which can be very profitable even on a down turn.. 7% returns in a day etc.

Back on the first post I compared this period we are in to the period lived in 2013 where we saw a huge rally followed by a huge decline.


Well, this has been broken badly so we can forget about a phoenix revival like the one on 2013.

But since we are talking of historical trends here, the percentage drop of the coin back in 2013 was roughly 78%... which is around the percentage drop we have experience in 2014...

Based on this last sentence, why wouldn't an investor taking a risk here at these levels...

Cheers

Great analysis.. do you believe we are the bottom of $200 ?

Hi Arsenal, I have been out for a while, but you are probably now aware that the coin has had a huge rally these past days after a huger drop.

So yeah, 200 was a hard bottom, it wen trough it but regained almost immediately.

I wouldn't say we are out of the woods yet as this could be another pump.

ON a Technical, the coin is now testing the Moving Averages, if it conquers we may see a nice support there.

Also, based on pure TA, the price action broke my falling wedge hard, going through 200 like nothing, and regained it hard too. On my first post I mentioned that these falling wedges brake down or up hard... and we just saw that a few days ago. Now, it would be interesting to see if the coin brakes the upper wedge line (green line) and if it brakes it hard, where would it takes us.

I still hold my coins now, and not really looking into trading but finding bottoms to pick up some. I was out for a few days and didn't buy any below 200, but I may buy some if the price action brakes my upper green line.

https://i.imgur.com/8oYVWOm.png

Thanks sonofa for the TA. I was about to jump in heavy at around 350$ when i saw your TA.

I' m all in now. Will see what will happen, but with the current situation in EU, i've decided to stay away from euro, and get my hands durty in btc.

Cheers,

Glad to help, and I am glad you read my posts lol ...

Like with any investment, do not go all the way in unless you can handle a 25% drop of your investment. With Bitcoin that may be a 30%.

Always cash out when you gut feeling tells you and there is nothing wrong with securing profits.

I'll keep posting more charts and thought on this.

:)

great analysis. keep up the good work~!

We are still hoovering around 200 €.

What's the possibility of going down bellow 100 € shor term according to you all?

I’m back!

I’ll continue with TA shortly!

Long Live Bitcoin!