Bitcoin Technical Analysis

[cutesakura]

I think this analysis could be true but could be wrong, this happens due to no regulation on bitcoin on how to limit the sale and how the bitcoin purchase limit, if the collector sells bitcoin bitcoin massive meal will decrease bitcoin prices and vice versa in case of large-scale purchases will eat bitcoin price increases, so it needs to be regulation in the sale and purchase of bitcoin, it is to maintain price stability bitcoin itself ... 

[aronnov]

I think bitcoin price depends on how the stock market fluctuated, when a lot of people who buy bitcoin in the stock market ate bitcoin exchange rates will go up, but if a lot of people who sell the bitcoin bitcoin exchange rates will go down, I hope that the collectors do not sell bitcoin that they had massively, just in moderation ... 

[sonofacoin]

cutesakura/aronnov,

Precisely, that is how pretty much any market works (buy/sell to price interaction) and without regulation like you said, well, this is what we get. A random price action and high volatility.

But regulation (centralization) is what we really want to avoid with Bitcoin. Right?

Although some kind of regulation exists within the Bitcoin universe. Satoshi, the Winklevoss brothers, among others, hold huge bags of coins. Any of them decide to drop their bags and we will see the market collapse. Why aren't they selling? Because they may be all together in this. So a small group that holds the majority of the goods is basically a controlled environment.

Trying to figure out the above is beyond any of us, we can only provide our thoughts and ideas. Which is also good, makes us smarter.

Ultimately, what I am trying to prove here is that Bitcoin does follow some of the rules of the trading market. The reason? Well, because it is traded.

[sonofacoin]

BTC must hold the fib retracement of 0.764 @ $340.77 in order to move up in the near term.

The news of Microsoft beginning to accept the coin for game payments should help. I believe the coin will take a relatively big dip sometime in the next week or so. Then it will rally over the 100 MA.

Don't ever doubt the power of the lines!

[sonofacoin]

As predicted, the fib line at .764 was violated so we see this price action.

BTC could test $305 or lower, but should maintain the blue line trend up.

[sonofacoin]

If you still doubt the power of Technical analysis, well, there is nothing I cans how you to make you change your mind.

Note: None of the traced lines have been changed or adjusted since the beginning of this post. Only new lines have been created and never moved.

1) So there it is, the drop to $300s on the 13th, the "big dip" called on Dec 16th and the Support lines created since the start and called for on the 17th have been spot on.

2) As I mentioned before, wait for a great time to buy Bitcoin, and this should be it. Just give it another day for price action confirmation.

What to watch:

$305 heavy support
Blue line heavy support
$320 now a resistance
$340 a huge resistance that will only break with heavy volume or else won't hold

The Bull
MACD trying to curve up.
RSI at completely oversold condition.
Stock still showing a down trend which is healthy for a rally.
Long term support completely alive.

The Bear
If the support line does not hold. We are in big big trouble.

[sonofacoin]

The power of the lines!

BTC bounced off a long term trend traced since the beginning of this post.

Vey bullish.

We need a positive SAR to confirm the rally up to $340.

[sonofacoin]

The fact that it went right through the traced line at 0.764 get me a little worried.

I may have to go back and understand what happened that day, anything on the news that may have drove a panic sell.

I wouldn't worry to much though, BTC has broken the lines before just to go right back to it like a magnet.

I would BUY right here if not done so already.

I'll place an order on my CoinBase today.

BTC may go back to touch the blue trend line in the next days but the trend remains intact and is very powerful. So I expect to trend up with it and to go back to $340 and head a little higher.

I can now safely say that overtime BTC price touches my blue trend line, you should BUY. And Sell above the $340 price if you think the rally is fading.

Also, I believe that first thing January or half way through the month we will see a clear indication of where Bitcoin will head for the rest of the year.

[sonofacoin]

Amazing how these predictions made on Nov 23 still hold.

I highlight two take aways...

Take a look at the last paragraph and do some analysis on your own. Think of any great catalysts (Russia recession, Europe stagnation, all the QE's happening around the world, Gold, etc.) These may be the great push for another rally.

You think BTC has never experiences drops, and near death experiences? it has always had them. Think about BTC at $0.05 USD prices... they too believed a jump to $1 was incredible. You think BTC can't jump 20X again? Think again.

As always, and always, be careful, mindful and respectful of BTC.

5. Tracing both patterns we can generate a couple coin prices to keep an eye on the next couple weeks. We want to see a bounce of $305 if there is such  drop, and if it doesn’t hold, we want to see bounce from $252. Hopefully it doesn’t have to dive that low but it would be a great opportunity to buy coins.

And to leave with a sense of historical comparison, in 2013 the coin also created a falling wedge with a bounce around the fib line  0.764 ($69) before rallying to $1100’s. Why is this important? At today's price and on the last 6 weeks, the coin has bounced and played around $340. Which for this last rally, it is the Fib Line 0.764. The same level before the huge huge rally last year.

[youngmike]

How centralized bitcoin mining is nowadays?

[sonofacoin]

How centralized bitcoin mining is nowadays?

I have no idea... but please elaborate a little more if you know the subject.

What I do know is that ASIC miners started to "decentralize" the network (if I understand correctly) and the recent price action has helped this method for mining but we may be heading towards a break point where price and difficulty levels may give the advantage to powerful miners that are already setup, as opposed to new miners coming in and having to invest heavily now.

[gjgjg]

How centralized bitcoin mining is nowadays?

Maybe this is the info you are looking for:
https://blockchain.info/pools

The usual situation, 3 or 4 pools have the majority .

[Amph]

How centralized bitcoin mining is nowadays?

Maybe this is the info you are looking for:
https://blockchain.info/pools

The usual situation, 3 or 4 pools have the majority .

that unknown with 20% is scary, what's this china farm?

[ScaryHash]

The only consistent thing that has actually made people money (including myself) so far is to "Keep mining".

Keep mining regardless of what pundits, the media, the techno-geeks or the hash rate gurus say.

JUST KEEP MINING !!!! I don't give a rat's behind about technical analysis, price of chips, btc to $$ conversion rate or the price of tea in China.

You don't make ROI by stopping your mining.

[sonofacoin]

I have been out a few days due to the holidays, but I'm back and see that the lines and predictions still hold.

The blue line is still intact and it is becoming much stronger.

I mentioned that any playing around the blue line is an alarm to Buy Bitcoin and I still think this holds. At these prices I will place and order myself through CoinBase.

At this point we are getting positive SAR points which indicates positive move. If you can risk a little I would buy right here right now. If you are looking for buying Bitcoin to use it for purchasing goods, then I would suggest to wait to see how the price resolves in the next day or so.

Do you remember the Red Line? and how I predicted a huge price action on December 12th, well that did happened exactly on that day and Bitcoin crushed that support level (Thumb down icon in the chart) and now it finds itself testing the long time support, the Blue Line.

In the hour chart, you can see how clearly Bitcoin price has been crushed in every attempt to send prices higher. Someone is unloading big and someone really wants Bitcoin price at these levels or lower. But the fact that Bitcoin finds strong buyers picking up the cheap coins lead me to believe there is very strong support. And the coins are leaving the weak hands for stronger long term hands which is good for the whole bitcoin ecosystem.

[sonofacoin]

Yesterday Bitcoin struggled to keep itself above the Blue Line, today it has finally caved and went through it.

What does it mean? We may visit prices as low as $305 pretty soon.

The confirmation would be a close of the day below the blue line, with MACD gapping.

The Blue Line is a very strong support line. In order for Bitcoin to rally, we need to see a price action able this line with positive SAR points.

[sonofacoin]

Well, if you are still against Technical Analysis on Bitcoin, well, take a look again.

The Blue support line was a strong line that if broken would make Bitcoin fall hard. And yes, it did brake, and yes Bitcoin did drop in price... Hard. See the Shite Skinny Arrow.

Being such  strong support, Bitcoin lingered around it undecided finding buyers at these levels but once these buyers were gone, then the price collapsed.

So where do we go from here? The next line is $240, yup, that far down but only a few dollars away. But my guess is that we go far down below even more. To touch the green line part of the falling wedge.

On my first post I described the two scenarios, a Pennant and a Falling Wedge. We are back on the Falling Wedge.

Note: None of the lines below have been adjusted since the first post. I have only added lines and traces as we go.

Cheers

[bmarch]

Hi everyone,

Figured this might be a good place for this.

I recently did some basic moving average analysis. If anyone considers moving average crossovers as fair indicators, we are definitely looking bearish with BTC prices going into 2015.

Below are dates for 50/200 MA "death cross" events dating back to May of 2014. A death cross is where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average and its reverse is known as a "golden cross". It is worth noting that none of these crossovers have been reversed as of this posting. So I would advise against buying into Bitcoin for some time still.

Recent 50/200-day MA "death cross" events:

Exchange	Currency	Date
Bitfinex	BTC/USD	May 30
Bitcoin.de	BTC/EUR	June 2
BTC-e	BTC/EUR	June 8
CaVirtex	BTC/CAD	Oct 24
Huobi	BTC/CNY	June 2
Bitstamp	BTC/USD	Dec 20
BTC China	BTC/CNY	Dec 20

data from Bitcoinwisdom.com

[sonofacoin]

Very nice, thanks for sharing some data and actual facts.

The golden crosses have appeared but short lived as you can see on my charts takes following Bitstamp prices.

I agree with you that now would not be the right time to buy bitcoin based on the charts and historical data.

I wouldn't discourage traders to hop in and ride this short lived rallies which can be very profitable even on a down turn.. 7% returns in a day etc.

Back on the first post I compared this period we are in to the period lived in 2013 where we saw a huge rally followed by a huge decline.

And to leave with a sense of historical comparison, in 2013 the coin also created a falling wedge with a bounce around the fib line  0.764 ($69) before rallying to $1100’s. Why is this important? At today's price and on the last 6 weeks, the coin has bounced and played around $340. Which for this last rally, it is the Fib Line 0.764. The same level before the huge huge rally last year.

Well, this has been broken badly so we can forget about a phoenix revival like the one on 2013.

But since we are talking of historical trends here, the percentage drop of the coin back in 2013 was roughly 78%... which is around the percentage drop we have experience in 2014...

Based on this last sentence, why wouldn't an investor taking a risk here at these levels...

Cheers

[arsenalfun]

Great analysis.. do you believe we are the bottom of $200 ?