Bitcoin Forum

Still very early adoption stage


Once Bitcoin is integrated to the masses through social media we will have growth



December, 1995 - internet users
   
16 millions
   
0.4 % of world population
   


Mar, 2014 (est.)
   
2,937 millions
   
40.9 %
   


just adopters
not early or late

What are you talking about?

we are still early adopters in terms of percentage of users.

Truth

Not sure, exactly. Maybe some kind of chart with growth/penetration of Bitcoin superimposed on growth/penetration of internet would make things a little clearer?

You already assume the same will happen with Bitcoin....

Time will tell, but for sure there is a lot more to come  :)

So when price is down at this level, we should buy little by little and accumulate as much as we can afford to loss.

Too late, its already at close to 400$. It was 350$ few days back.

This already happened a week and a half ago. BTC price rose up to $450 and then fell back to $350. We'll see how things will be by the end of this week though.

So how many verys would you use for these that own thousands of Bitcoin effortlessly due mining and buying in the cents to 1$ period? these are the very very early adopters to me.

Price is up where it expects world wide adaptation and usage.

Buy at your own risk.

but there was nothing like the internet then.  There a lots of other payment processors/currencies/payment tools that work essentially just as good if not better than bitcoin in most situations.  I just dont get how people compare adoption of the internet to adoption of bitcoin, its not a similar situation.  

The original post is deceiving as we're not at 15 million.  Bitcoin is only 500K - 2M users.  Jeffrey Robinson on the other hand claims it's as low as 250K users.  

As for comparing this technology with payment processors, you obviously have no idea what the payment processors are (middle men between you and the merchant - hence processing of the payment to the merchant - payment processor).  If digital currencies become big enough then the payment processors will integrate them, including PayPal and Stripe.


Last point but Bitcoin has so many PR and image problems.  Bitcoin is now on television and newspapers a bit (especially if you read the financial sections) so you can't pretend nobody has heard about it.  There's been sample polls indicating that 40% to a majority of adults have heard of Bitcoin but people aren't coming in because all they've heard are scams and thefts.

People will stop using the Internet. It's going to zero.

Difference is Web has 300M users at 5 years mark, we have no more than 1M users at 5 years mark. At this rate, it'll be year 2150 when we reach 1% population

Perspective, even if all the bitcoin users were in the US, 2 million strong, then it would only be 1% still...

Adoption curves of various technologies....

http://www.lenvlahos.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/AdoptionCurve-crop.jpg

Perspectives on tech adoption in general...

http://www.slideshare.net/louadi/07-technology-adoption-life-cycle-2014


We are not even at the crook in the "S" curve yet, for most things it seems to require a critical mass of 2 or 3 percent to hit that steep climb. Look at the difference in gradients between the first part of the S and the middle, if how we've expanded and price has risen looks "scary" and unsustainable so far, you ain't seen nothing yet.....

Bitcoin is crypto fiat. Because of that, it will never achieve mass adoption unless it is forced upon us.

6 billion people have been feeding on table scraps for centuries. There is no way they are just going to bend over and allow karples, and his caravan of scammer fatass crypto private bank insiders, the opportunity to continue on with their gross injustices.

Bears out in force today. Patience is a virtue.

Point, but couldn't you make a neat chart out of it? My opinion is that it's no coincidence that cryptocurrencies are getting their start right when people are starting to get serious about colonizing space. Someday one cryptocurrency or another is going to be pretty much the standard for interplanetary trade.

 ???
What do you know that we don't know?  I think you meant intercontinental.  Interplanetary means between planets.   :D

Due to the limited speed of light, you'd need a block transaction time measured in hours to days.

Because of these speed limitations it's more likely that each planet has its own blockchain with interplanetary exchanges to convert between the different cryptos.

On topic: I agree we are at the very beginning of a possible adoption curve. However there is no guarantee Bitcoin will ever reach the breakout point. The more businesses adopt bitcoin, the more likely we'll get there due to powerful network effect. That's what we hope.

ya.ya.yo!

thats true. thanks for that  ;)

Speed of light communication is so 20th century, we're onto quantum entanglement based transmissions these days, it's only in the lab yet, but demonstrated.

that's not really fully true. there where bbs's .. i remember using my dialup to call bbc sites. they were not connected to the internet.
u nse modem and call up bbs site and post, download files, stuff like that. there were a lot of warez bbc's.
back then there was internet but only for school teachers and was only unix based.
there was similar technology when internet was first starting. the technology was not nearly as good as it is today though of course.

Show me a working production implementation?

Show me the guy on Mars that needs it... these things only tend to get pushed along when there is a killer app for them.

Really? The internet had 300M users in 1974? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARPANET

If you mean "web" as in WWW, you're still off by an order of magnitude.

And I'd argue that Bitcoin is more foundational than WWW, and so it's far more reasonable to say that we're currently in a "pre-web" equivalent period.

But I honestly go back and forth between feeling like Bitcoin right now is equivalent to the internet in 1984 or 1994. Doesn't matter in the end, though.

Stats everywhere...

yes we are,i am sure of that.

if we are still the very very early adopters, what are the implications?

The implication being that if true mass adoption is still to come, past bubbles will look like an ant fart beside an H-bomb.

Our children will blame us for having cheap bitcoins and squandering them instead of hodling.

What you don't know is that I am a time traveller from the distant future and our quantum computing and communications capability works wonders when it comes to making transactions very quick. :P Seriously though. What makes you think that each planet won't have its own cryptocurrency and exchange rates between altcoins won't be taken a lot more seriously than they are now?

Right? New technology takes time.  We're doing just fine lol

Okay. Since we are still early adopters, let's get behind every effort for promoting Bitcoin that we can. And let's start thinking of all the new ways we can promote. Has anyone done mailings?

:)

I say we are late and adoption is not as cheap as it was before.

Absolutely true. I wish that I would have been one of the 2010 bitcoiners. In this way we are late.

Who knows the future? If Bitcoin fails, we lose. However, if we can promote Bitcoin into 10x the use that it has today, the price will probably go up some. Maybe not 10x, but maybe back to the $1,200 range.

:)

in the future, we may be seeing prices like 3.287 cents.... per bit :-)

Since the exchange rate rise exponentially, you are always late any time, actually the coin's price is always the same as the current mining cost, so the investment decision is equally difficult in 2011 or 2014

Due to the high technical barrier and wallet safety concern, most of the people still does not have enough confidence to store their wealth into bitcoin, so this is still early phase. Once there are many secure wallet storage services up and running and people don't worry about losing their coins, there will be another fast growth period

Here's a better analogy, Bitcoin is to currency what MP3s are to music. MP3 file medium revolutionized how we record, store, consume, and listen to music. I think Bitcoin is similar...however I don't have as much conviction that that the price is destined to increase. Usage, penetration, yes.

I see this term used so many times. "Early" is relative. If bitcoins were to last long after the last BTC has been mined, then yeah we're pretty early adopters. But if there was a 51% attack tomorrow, then we're the end adopters.

And on the contrary, you guys missed the boat  :P

Do you have some info article or some youtube link or something for this.

I would love to read something about it.

Nice comparisons, yes something simple to explain is that mp3 or mp4 is something similar to BTC or crypto.

But in fast we are still back with using btc in something bigger. Adoption is going slowly very.

Best I can find this early in the morning, can't find more recent article I saw.. http://www.nature.com/news/data-teleportation-the-quantum-space-race-1.11958

I am far more optimistic about the success of bitcoin than I am about the success of the human species long term.

A lot of common users don't see the potential in bitcoin unfortunately. I'm hoping this will change soon though.

Faster then we think we will adopt some crypto for every day life you will have it all the way.
In some point were are there there are some ATM, places where you can buy/purchase in everyday life something or you can order something from some store that accept any crypto.

Soon all will figure it out.
In most new technologies and stuff you need time to succeed or to have some good background story.
Dont be surprised if in near future you receive everyday paycheck in some crypto BTC or LTC or some other.

thanks for all the info. I do not think it's only a bitcoin users. I hope so. true what you say, they have a bad judge to bitcoin before they really knew him. and it occurs because the act of a few people who are not responsible

Wow intertesting perspective, cool chart thanks

I totally agree with you!

And our advantage will lie non only in the increase of BTC price ( compared with FIAT currencies ), but also, and IMHO above all, in our mastery of this brand-new technology.

Internet did not start in 1995, but 10 years before. It would be unreal to start and have 16 milions users. Bitcoin is at stage before was Internet in 1995.

I was on the internet in 1993? on a sun spark using mosaic....it was basically as good as anything today. It was pretty awesome.

Before that in the 80's is was bboards and FTP

Was going to say this is all relative. Only time will tell whether we are early adopters or not so it's pointless speculating on it. I still think bitcoin has barely even reached a tiny percentage of it's true possibilities so I think there's still a good chance.

Lucky you, our sysadmin wouldn't put anything but cello on until mosaic got to about 0.9 :D

Consider this that every third person has computer and every third computer person has internet.
So let say les then fice year and all internet users will at least hear about bitcoin or star using it.

I started using internet almost 20 year ago back in 95 or was 96.
Lost of thing change in this period some were slow some fast.

Lest think about this like internet some thing will be slow to adopt and some will be fast.

Amazing we still to this day have less than half the world with internet access, the internet changed everything for me.

Bitcoin isn't internet. Internet is something that has no alternative. We can currently pay in fiat and I am quite sure that we will be able to do that in 2100. I don't think Bitcoin will ever replace fiat. Governments simply has so much power.

Bitcoin is non-inflatory. That allows it to be used as a storage of value. It will be safe heaven for investors and it's volatility will be used to gain wealth. These reasons could tempt new investors in and that way increase Bitcoins market cap. If we see inflation as a way to move money from poor peoples pocket to rich peoples then the rich are fine with fiat and the rest of the world are fine with it as well.

Neither of these scenarios will lead to higher adoption but higher value only.

What OP said is very clear and makes me remember and smile  ;D

Of course 5 years after the Internet first appearance, it was nothing important. But think about where we are now.
As well, some people don't know what we really have with bitcoin. We have freedom, decentralization and open-source economy concept. That's very powerful!

Bitcoin is only in the beginning. Just wait for the next growth phase, many will be surprised. Patience is a virtue!!

Yes, patience. If we watch how people are selling on every low. This is the resource so many seem to lack.

Adoption with come with marketing. Marketing is everything specially these days. Make it trendy among young people and bang, bitcoin everywhere.

Bitcoin share with Internet its decentralized nature.

Moreover, why do you think Internet has no alternative?
Depending on the use you make with Internet, the alternatives could be TVs, Books, Phones, ect.

But I think fiat has better marketing. It has central banks behind and those define what is money and what isn't. They have almost unlimited resources for marketing and majority of people still trust these institutions. Ofcourse what we doing here is also marketing. Time will show how it turns out.

These can only allow a part of what internet does. TVs, books and phones can't offer a foundation for a usage of digital currency as it is used today. They offer an alternative for a specific usage of internet. With digital currency I mean both fiat and crypto.

true once, but I prefer to learn via the Internet. because now do not have to cost a fortune to access the internet.
as cheap as the price of your cigarettes.
need a willingness to learn, complaining will not help

They dont need to.
It will be more like you want pay in fiat or crypto.

Patience is always a virtue.
Its like something that you are waiting for patiently to come and then you grab it.

Modern kids forgot that 20 year ago you didnt find solution for mathematics or some other subject on net.
We all went to libraries and additional classes.

I still love to watch some good TV show or to read a book.

Yes you could, but you REALLY had to know how to use search engines, or software like Gopher and Archie. Typically you'd not be looking for dumbed down wikis, but actual papers in individual academics FTPs. Academia used the internet heavily from the get go, it was one of the things you could find.  Before spam and the Eternal September, newsgroups contained pretty much solely professional and academic discussion, and were a good resource, becoming less so further into the 90s.

Interesting stats. :)

If you say based on percentage
We still early adopter

Maybe we have to wait 20 years to see most people adopt bitcoin  :D

If you are rich already thanks to BTC you are a very very early
If you are not, you have to drop a couple verys.

"We are the lunatic fringe adopters. Early adopters come later."
-Andreas Antonopolous.

You think 20 years more like 10 and we will be purchasing anything on net with it it will became try net currency by my opinion.

I was actually shocked when some one told me how many people actually own Bitcoin.

Was thinking in the range of a few million people, but it's only a few hundred thousand.

There is so much room for growth, something tells me the next few years will be huge.

It's not so strange, Cryptocurrency is miles ahead of evolution, an evolution to a decentralized world and fair monetary system. The blockchain is another miracle, which can be used for all digital processes, the advantages of the protocoll will only increase, we'll see a bright crypto future, the question is will it be bitcoin or another?

sorry to break it to you boys, but we are still in the "fringe"

Forget fringe, we still in the chasm:

https://i.imgur.com/eryyRRG.jpg

Just gots to give it some time to marinate, let the devs and investors do theirs, and we do ours by actually using it.

When I share something about Bitcoin on Facebook, nobody like that or no comment about that; cause they don't know. But I know in 2 or 3 years people share their ChangeTip links like crazy, talk about discounted prices with Bitcoin, talk about Bitcoin price's dumping/pumping etc. If that days come, Bitcoin price will be more than $10,000 guys, we'll see this I believe!

$50,000 seems like an achievable end state for BTC price. That would reflect about a $1T capitalization - very approximately 1/10'th of Gold. Levels beyond that are possible but IMHO overly optimistic.

Yes there is room for growth but there needs to be a reason for it to grow, eg there needs to be a reason for people to buy and use it. Right now the reason why people would use bitcoin is because it provides a lower cost way of sending money, however there is the added cost of the fact that there are no consumer protections and many scam attempts (many successful)

Not really none, it's still as illegal to steal as anything else is.

Yeah, that's playing on my mind, I'm hoping we get the momentum to jump that ......


http://helektron.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/coches-voladores-0.jpg

Oh and this gem turned up.

"Overhyped" "Number of users grossly overestimated" suggestion of being off by a factor of 10.

Sound familiar? No it's not the latest bitcoin FUD article...

It's the New York Times reporting on the internet in 1994...
http://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/10/business/business-technology-doubts-raised-on-number-of-internet-users.html

We know what happened next.

Yes, the people who invested in the internet back then are now billionaires

When this happen any crypto may became soul of purchasing something over the net.
I think that will be mainly purpose for most of cryptos.

You got it right but more people are interested to hear something about it not just for bitcoin for all other cryptos.
Have several co workers who read something in paper and ask little about it.

I gave them few direction and they now read and explore possibilities for additional income like most of us.

Yeah, but what kind of BTC investment would you need to do NOW to become a billonaire in 10 years?

20,000 BTC invested now (~$7M) should put you on track to be a future USD billionaire

But who the hell has that kind of money to do that. We are talking a posbility for everyone.

Back in the day, someone that registered a couple of household names like what.. i dont know, sex.com, broadcast.com, news.com whatever.. and then started some basic business could become a billi.

With BTC i dont see it as clear. The opportunity to have a ton of BTC for a small investment is over. I can only hope that 1 BTC goes to 1 milli in a decade and I think im being delusional with that.

Not sure, but having a few BTCs around will make you a millionare in a decade imho.

how are you and others who believe so sure that BTC is like internet?
internet (web / networking) is something that could not be avoided in humanity but crypto-currencies.. not necassary

Everything considered "essential" to modern life at present was seen as nothing but an expensive toy in the beginning.

Yes BTC is my opinion future in internet every day paying system.
The more you surf more ads you see about some exchange or casino or something similar to any crypto.

So bottom line is we wont be able to see full potential of BTC.

The fact that you have found this community shows that you probably are smarter than average. Your Facebook friends aren't if they represent a group consisting of average people. If you post something here, even if it isn't about Bitcoin people will understand. For that reason you may have the illusion that your Facebook friends should understand that as well. Even if 50 % of people some day have a Bitcoin wallet that doesn't mean they understand it. They still won't comment when you post about Bitcoin on Facebook.

web / networking meaning networking and communicating with human species all over the world is an expensive toy?

Yup, was in the early 90s. Toilets were an expensive toy when you could just as easily shit in the gutter.

Point being, crypto curriencies seem like a "neat toy" right now, but kids born today will think that  pieces of paper with numbers on them a retarded and backward form of money.