Bitcoin Forum

I think we are not going to see a big movement until after the Dec 4 auction.

Or, you know, I could be wrong.

-- FK

Depressing that this market is still so tiny, and so little demand, that relatively little money can still "peg" an exchange rate until someone decides differently.

Given the very shallow depth of the market, a prospective bidder who intends to create the illusion of a low market price can easily depress it by selling just a few hundred coins at strategic moments. From a Game Theoretic point of view, it makes sense for all prospective bidders to act independently to artificially keep the price low so that all the other prospective bidders wouldn't bid the price up too high for the big 50K coin prize.

On the other hand, they don't want to push the market down too low because then some other prospective bidder will just buy them out at the lower price.

Well it's speculation founded on a kernel of truth
The last auction with Tim Draper did result in a price increase
(That said we speculated a decrease)
So he-he who knows what will happen this time around.

How can you even think a auction would bring the price anywhere but down?!

they are not new, they always be from confiscating bitcoins of skill road

I'm not saying this would happen but assuming you were some sort of fund manager:

1. buy 50k coins on the cheap, depressed value
2. pump the market up after you've acquired the big stash
3. book a 'unrealized profit'
4. pay yourself based on the huge unrealized gains.

Wall street does this all the time

Even after they sell this lot, they still have a good amount left over. It seems to me that someone inside the US Marshalls office knew that this was coming and has been driving the price down on the markets over the past few months. It wouldn't surprise me if there were a number of questionable individuals within the government that are using their inside information to trade.

https://twitter.com/?lang=en

That's a lot of BTC ahead of the auction...

what mean the link of twitter?

Have you seen the art auctions lately?

That's about 82 million worth of bitcoin...unless it was photoshopped, which I doubt...

The winning bidders only get notified they won on Friday and they have until Monday to pay. I'm wondering if we will only see a big movement after the weekend. It took a while for any real information to leak out last time and I doubt we will find much out until after the weekend this time.

I actually am kind of worried that we might see some depressing action after the auction is finished. Coindesk just published a rather convincing argument why the coins may go at a significant discount off of the market price: http://www.coindesk.com/citi-ross-ulbricht-bitcoins-likely-sell-discount-usms-auction/ (http://www.coindesk.com/citi-ross-ulbricht-bitcoins-likely-sell-discount-usms-auction/)

US Gvt thanks all the losers that put their Bitcoins into centralized sites like MtGox and SilkRoad 1, Silkroad2 and Silkroad 9000.

All those losers enabled the USG to have the largest wallet in their possession.

Another indication that the coins will sell ABOVE market. Citi is lying to try to fool other potential bidders.

My prediction: "buy the rumor, sell the news". Once the coins sell, the price will rise.

When is the 90k coin auction? Anyone know?

I wonder to what extent this brings in new money? I Know Draper was not a new, but a wealthy person who wants to try bitcoin may be better able to understand the bidding process than the exchanges.

Or, you know, I could be wrong also.  :)

US Marshals auctions possess the pomp and prestige so sorely lacking in Christie's and Sotheby's.
The fabulocity of being seen amongst society's creme de la creme is so worth the premium, dahling!

http://fc01.deviantart.net/fs70/i/2012/323/3/c/mlp__fabulous_rarity_is_fabulous_by_maxmontezuma-d5lcxex.png

http://blog.al.com/engine-block/2008/08/Auction%20Police%20car.jpg

You really are desperate aren't you. It is seeping out of every comment you make lol.

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

So you're suggesting that the coins will auction for less than market value, taking slippage into account?

Slippage works both ways, buying and selling.  To avoid arguing the obvious, let's just say I'm in the majority.

see:  http://www.coindesk.com/citi-ross-ulbricht-bitcoins-likely-sell-discount-usms-auction/
and:  http://www.coindesk.com/usual-suspects-return-bid-latest-us-marshals-bitcoin-auction/

Or they just try to talk the price down...

The last auction's leaked list of potential bidders included people like Fred Ehrsam, co-founder, Coinbase. As coinbase has run out of bitcoins in the past he would be likely to want the silkroad bitcoins as a contingency backup in case the same thing happens again.

http://www.coindesk.com/list-possible-silk-road-bitcoin-bidders-allegedly-leaked-us-marshals/

The leaked list is not a list of bidders, but "... a list of some of the individuals who have asked a question or questions about the pending bitcoin auction."  Not that it matters much--as I understand it, there's no fee to bid, merely a security deposit.  In other words, the bidders risk nothing--no reason not to place a low bid on the off-chance of winning.

I'm not suggesting that it is metaphysically impossible for the winning bids to be above market price, simply that, in my opinion, it's improbable.  This shouldn't preclude your making your own conclusions :-\

I'm just saying that even if the winning bids are well below market price the winners might have good reasons not to dump. The co-founder of Coinbase is a good example of someone who might hold.

+1

Look at all the new comers panicking prior to the 50k BTC auction.

I was surprised at the results of the last auction.  I figured with so many coins hitting the market at once it would be bound to result in the coins selling at a discount.  It turned out that Draper really wanted to get into bitcoin in a big way and saw the auction as a way to buy a lot of them at a discount to what the market would have been if he'd bought them on the open market.

I doubt we'll get that lucky again, especially since the price has dropped a fair amount since his purchase.  Still he was quoted in the Wall Street Journal yesterday saying in three years a bitcoin will be worth 10,000 USD, so maybe he'll double down!

Good Luck!

I wonder how much the investor syndicates are willing to bet on the upcoming auction? Would a group of smaller investors bid higher than  single investor?

So today's the day ha?

When do we find out about it?

Thursday 8am EST it starts and drags on for 6 hours, but they won't tell anyone the results except the winning bidders.

To answer my own question, group-think will cause a group of investors to be too conservative.

I wish anonymous would step in and put in all their efforts combined to one way or another sabotage the auction and take hold of the bitcoin

55 6e 65 6e 63 72 79 70 74 65 64 20 63 6f 6d 6d 75 6e 69 63 61 74 69 6f 6e 20 75 6e 61 64 76 69 73 61 62 6c 65 20 6f 76 65 72 20 63 6c 65 61 72 6e 65 74 2c 20 4a 4c 79 6d 6d 31 37 31 2e 20 20 50 72 6f 63 65 65 64 20 74 6f 20 31 32 37 2e 30 2e 30 2e 31 3a 31 33 33 37 20 73 77 69 74 63 68 69 6e 67 20 74 6f 20 53 48 41 32 35 36 20 65 6e 63 6c 6b 69 68 6c 6b 64 72 20 75 20 77 38 36 35 20 71 32 74 34 30 2f 20 20 6b 69 68 68 67 72 66 66 39 39 38 20 38 37 34 69 6a 68 6c 64 76 6b 68 20 37 36 74 65 72 20 6b 6a 6b 6a 66 68 67 75 65 79 72 20 6b 6a 6e 76 76 6b 73 6a 68 76 67 20 72 78 20 79 73 67 20 76 62 6b 6e 66 6a 76 62 6b 6a 6e 20 3a 29

~XXpeachXXpizza276

http://s10.postimg.org/x51qpx0h5/anon.gif

Says who??? This is not a stock market IPO with a lock out period. If they are both below market value why wouldn't they immediately be dumped?? They could always re buy at the lower price that comes from the pandemonium they cause. WTF makes you so sure they won't dump in a full unregulated market?

It didn't happen with Tim Draper.  Won't happen this time either. 

Quit being a douche.

Actually after he bought all the coins (like an idiot) he is in the red for millions of dollars... Fuck people like that trying to get rich off us retail investors.

Quit day dreaming. Wake up.

There's really no difference between this and institutional bulk purchases of commodities, like gold for instance.  When the Chinese government imports gold, the spot price of gold is only indirectly affected.  You don't see immediate spikes in the paper market.  We can debate this all night, but I'm just saying that there is a very low probability that this coin auction will result in any noticeable change in price.  It will come and go without much fanfare.

So you're saying this stabilization will continue even after the winners are announced Dec 5th?

Should be the last obstacle to get the price going back up again, unless another Mt.Gox-style episode happens with something else like Coinbase or another exchange where the coins get hacked.

In my opinion, if there is a prolonged downward movement tomorrow, it will not be the result of the auction winners being announced.

200K coins under the trusteeship of Kobayashi, dealing with the bankruptcy proceedings of a company owing fiat.  

Agreed.

In the last SR auction, we had prices temporarily depressed from 600 to around ~540 or so.  It was blatant manipulation just for the auction.  Then after the auction was over, the exchange rate started to quickly climb back up.  Everyone cheered, believing that the winner paid way over market price and that the market was reacting accordingly.

Then you know what happened after, and here we are today at 370.

So the auction will have no significant effect in either reversing a downtrend, or starting/confirming a new uptrend.

Am I right in thinking it started about an hour ago and finishes in about five hours?

Yes.

Hmm, ok. Will be interesting to see how that pans out.

Is there any definite court date for the MtGox case yet or are they still mulling over it?

Creditors have until May 29, 2015 to file proofs of claims. The date for investigation of the claims is September 9, 2015.

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20140728_announcement.pdf

Yeah, although I think the magnitude of drama is declining, which is concerning... :D

Prediction: Market will spark a "relief"-rally after the auction/payment is over.

I hope the government gets rid of all their coins as soon as possible before the next Bitcoin rise...

ya.ya.yo!

^Plenty more where that came from.
And if the 90k starts 2 run dry, "the government" will pwn more of your coin & sell it back 2u.

It's the day of the auction things will start getting interesting very soon
One way or the other
Just my speculation

The winning bidders don't even get notified until tomorrow and they have until Monday to pay. We'll be lucky if we get given any results before Monday, if at all.

True enough, might get some people commenting on their bid amounts before that
We don't have the bid list either this time but it still makes for some interesting price speculation either way until the results are published for the public to see.

You could succeed push the price lower with a few thousands bitcoins but risking to have the market move against you if people are pumping it with thousands of bitcoins at the same time.
A few hundreds bitcoins is not enough to start a bear market!

See?

http://s12.postimg.org/3qjwsr7xp/Capture.jpg

^ Because everyone knows the great technology from bitcoin will be stolen for something that is cheaper to mint (mine)

 ....because a coin thats cheap and easy to mine will have more value? Right?

Sorry - you lost me here!

See what?

^"Overall, the number of registered bidders decreased 75% from the first auction, while the number of bids fell 57%."
The theory that exchange prices were being manipulated down by prospective bidders also has [predictably] turned out to be bunk.

I realize denying grim facts is a thing in trashy melodrama--a women clings to her freshly-shot lover, screaming "Oh no no you can't be dead no God no etc., etc."  This effective dramatic device falls flat, tho, when voiced by a d00d named traderCJ--an interweb money changer about to become a poor interweb money changer.

TL;DR: give it up, bro.

so if us marshals are auctioning off btc do they consider  it currency?

kind of stupid of thier laws.

If it was currency, why would they be auctioning it off? 
"The first lot in today's auction is $5000.  Do I here $10?"

Huh?  Yeaaaah, something tells me most things that come across your desk fall into the TL;DR category.  ;D

No not a coin... Paper money has huge profit margin because it doesn't take much to produce & that's why it is widely used. Digital currency doesn't have to be "mined" in a horrible costly process. Instead they can use the blockchain and other features into actual digital currency that they can just release a set amount of & other amounts whenever they want just like they do everyday.

https://twitter.com/dan_pantera/status/540669052797341696


= results before today 10PM GMT

You sincerely don't understand that all the evidence--from Bitcoin press to bidder sentiment to poor bidder turnout points to lower winning bids, while the only thing suggesting above market bids is a bunch of overinvested, delusional bagholders?

Edit:

Yes.

http://s2.postimg.org/q9cleoda1/Capture.jpg

Continue hodling, bro.  I'll be sure to send you a condolences gif when your money's gone.

http://s27.postimg.org/vhmt02rjn/jimjones.jpg

Barry Silbert:


https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/540865242801405952

http://s30.postimg.org/53v1yfjkh/huh.jpg

"The USMS data, distributed via email, indicates that the number of bidders in the agency's second bitcoin auction has declined significantly from the first auction held this June.

That auction, which received widespread media coverage in the US and had an observable affect on bitcoin's market, attracted a total of 45 registered bidders, who placed 63 bids over the course of the auction. By contrast, 11 registered bidders participated in today's auction, submitting a total of just 27 bids.

Overall, the number of registered bidders decreased 75% from the first auction, while the number of bids fell 57%." -- http://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-bidder-turnout-second-bitcoin-auction-declines-sharply/

This will be interesting
Thanks for the twitter post ^^

I am surprised there was no rally today into the news.

Assumed it was goin to be like last time. Buy the rumor and sell the news.

They don't sell illegal assets such as drugs but they can sell anything else in auction and they do.


Yes buy the rumor and sell the news :P

exactly... u cant auction of $... only coins and valuables that the going price is whateer the auction participants feel it is worth

What would you pay for a us minted silver Dollar?

If they get Euro they probably sell it for Dollar.
They could exchange Bitcoin on exchanges but they don't because they don't trust exchanges, don't want to move the market lower and get less for their bitcoins or because they consider bitcoins as a commodity.

That's good for us to make US Marshalls accept BTC as a commodity, we're going step by step. These auctions made public opinion change about BTC, cause rich people invest on them as a commodity. That's nice! :)

Bitcoin ETFs, the need of having a liquid currency that is likely to rise in value and allows efficient storage and exchange are very bullish for Bitcoin.

Not sure I understand.  Liquid currency?  Likely to raise in value?  Efficient store of value?
You've just described the opposite of Bitcoin :-\

We'll see. I suspect you will go awfully quiet in the next few weeks when the price jumps up and the downtrend is definitively broken. And if a bitcoin ETF is approved then the price could easily do another 10x rise driven by an influx of cheap investment money chasing gains.