The new bearwhale: US Marshals

[NotLambchop]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

[traderCJ]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

So you're suggesting that the coins will auction for less than market value, taking slippage into account?

[NotLambchop]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

So you're suggesting that the coins will auction for less than market value, taking slippage into account?

Slippage works both ways, buying and selling.  To avoid arguing the obvious, let's just say I'm in the majority.

see:  http://www.coindesk.com/citi-ross-ulbricht-bitcoins-likely-sell-discount-usms-auction/
and:  http://www.coindesk.com/usual-suspects-return-bid-latest-us-marshals-bitcoin-auction/

[Kupsi]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

So you're suggesting that the coins will auction for less than market value, taking slippage into account?

Slippage works both ways, buying and selling.  To avoid arguing the obvious, let's just say I'm in the majority.

see:  http://www.coindesk.com/citi-ross-ulbricht-bitcoins-likely-sell-discount-usms-auction/
and:  http://www.coindesk.com/usual-suspects-return-bid-latest-us-marshals-bitcoin-auction/

Or they just try to talk the price down...

[sniveling]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

The last auction's leaked list of potential bidders included people like Fred Ehrsam, co-founder, Coinbase. As coinbase has run out of bitcoins in the past he would be likely to want the silkroad bitcoins as a contingency backup in case the same thing happens again.

http://www.coindesk.com/list-possible-silk-road-bitcoin-bidders-allegedly-leaked-us-marshals/

[NotLambchop]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

The last auction's leaked list of potential bidders included people like Fred Ehrsam, co-founder, Coinbase. As coinbase has run out of bitcoins in the past he would be likely to want the silkroad bitcoins as a contingency backup in case the same thing happens again.

http://www.coindesk.com/list-possible-silk-road-bitcoin-bidders-allegedly-leaked-us-marshals/

The leaked list is not a list of bidders, but "... a list of some of the individuals who have asked a question or questions about the pending bitcoin auction."  Not that it matters much--as I understand it, there's no fee to bid, merely a security deposit.  In other words, the bidders risk nothing--no reason not to place a low bid on the off-chance of winning.

I'm not suggesting that it is metaphysically impossible for the winning bids to be above market price, simply that, in my opinion, it's improbable.  This shouldn't preclude your making your own conclusions

[sniveling]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

The last auction's leaked list of potential bidders included people like Fred Ehrsam, co-founder, Coinbase. As coinbase has run out of bitcoins in the past he would be likely to want the silkroad bitcoins as a contingency backup in case the same thing happens again.

http://www.coindesk.com/list-possible-silk-road-bitcoin-bidders-allegedly-leaked-us-marshals/

The leaked list is not a list of bidders, but "... a list of some of the individuals who have asked a question or questions about the pending bitcoin auction."  Not that it matters much--as I understand it, there's no fee to bid, merely a security deposit.  In other words, the bidders risk nothing--no reason not to place a low bid on the off-chance of winning.

I'm not suggesting that it is metaphysically impossible for the winning bids to be above market price, simply that, in my opinion, it's improbable.  This shouldn't preclude your making your own conclusions

I'm just saying that even if the winning bids are well below market price the winners might have good reasons not to dump. The co-founder of Coinbase is a good example of someone who might hold.

[smoothie]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

+1

Look at all the new comers panicking prior to the 50k BTC auction.

[galbros]

I was surprised at the results of the last auction.  I figured with so many coins hitting the market at once it would be bound to result in the coins selling at a discount.  It turned out that Draper really wanted to get into bitcoin in a big way and saw the auction as a way to buy a lot of them at a discount to what the market would have been if he'd bought them on the open market.

I doubt we'll get that lucky again, especially since the price has dropped a fair amount since his purchase.  Still he was quoted in the Wall Street Journal yesterday saying in three years a bitcoin will be worth 10,000 USD, so maybe he'll double down!

Good Luck!

[cbeast]

I wonder how much the investor syndicates are willing to bet on the upcoming auction? Would a group of smaller investors bid higher than  single investor?

[podyx]

So today's the day ha?

When do we find out about it?

[solex]

So today's the day ha?

When do we find out about it?

Thursday 8am EST it starts and drags on for 6 hours, but they won't tell anyone the results except the winning bidders.

[cbeast]

I wonder how much the investor syndicates are willing to bet on the upcoming auction? Would a group of smaller investors bid higher than  single investor?

To answer my own question, group-think will cause a group of investors to be too conservative.

[JLynn171]

I wish anonymous would step in and put in all their efforts combined to one way or another sabotage the auction and take hold of the bitcoin

[NotLambchop]

I wish anonymous would step in and put in all their efforts combined to one way or another sabotage the auction and take hold of the bitcoin

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Code:

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~XXpeachXXpizza276

[fewcoins]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Says who??? This is not a stock market IPO with a lock out period. If they are both below market value why wouldn't they immediately be dumped?? They could always re buy at the lower price that comes from the pandemonium they cause. WTF makes you so sure they won't dump in a full unregulated market?

[Torque]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Says who??? This is not a stock market IPO with a lock out period. If they are both below market value why wouldn't they immediately be dumped?? They could always re buy at the lower price that comes from the pandemonium they cause. WTF makes you so sure they won't dump in a full unregulated market?

It didn't happen with Tim Draper.  Won't happen this time either. 

Quit being a douche.

[fewcoins]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Says who??? This is not a stock market IPO with a lock out period. If they are both below market value why wouldn't they immediately be dumped?? They could always re buy at the lower price that comes from the pandemonium they cause. WTF makes you so sure they won't dump in a full unregulated market?

It didn't happen with Tim Draper.  Won't happen this time either. 

Quit being a douche.

Actually after he bought all the coins (like an idiot) he is in the red for millions of dollars... Fuck people like that trying to get rich off us retail investors.

Quit day dreaming. Wake up.

[traderCJ]

There's really no difference between this and institutional bulk purchases of commodities, like gold for instance.  When the Chinese government imports gold, the spot price of gold is only indirectly affected.  You don't see immediate spikes in the paper market.  We can debate this all night, but I'm just saying that there is a very low probability that this coin auction will result in any noticeable change in price.  It will come and go without much fanfare.

[fewcoins]

There's really no difference between this and institutional bulk purchases of commodities, like gold for instance.  When the Chinese government imports gold, the spot price of gold is only indirectly affected.  You don't see immediate spikes in the paper market.  We can debate this all night, but I'm just saying that there is a very low probability that this coin auction will result in any noticeable change in price.  It will come and go without much fanfare.

So you're saying this stabilization will continue even after the winners are announced Dec 5th?