Bitcoin Forum

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=895089.0  new thread this is locked



Once again new thread last diff jump first negative in 23 months.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,007,470,271
Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,373,823,121   (+0.92%)
Adjust time:   After 2013 Blocks, About 13.7 days
Hashrate(?):   292,404,472 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.3 minutes
6 blocks: 58.6 minutes
Updated:   19:10 (3.5 minutes ago)

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/     (+ 0.15%)

Blocks   332643
Total BTC   13.566M
 
Difficulty   40007470271
Estimated   40013627388 in 2013 blks
 
Network total   280518.981 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.84 / 617 s


My fast guess is both are low as sp20's and   s-4's have sold very well. I hope for under 5%   this Jump !


Oh here are the jumps since June 2014 when  the s-1 stopped selling and the s-3 started to sell


[/b]Difficulty History[/b]

Date                      Difficulty          Change       Hash Rate
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s



Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s     the s-1 stopped and the s-3 sales started around this time frame.
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%    96,368,902 GH/s


I do an average for diff from Jul 12 2014 to now as this time frame represents the conversion from 2 watt gear to 1 watt of less gear.

Soon I may pick a new point since .6 watt gear is becoming  more available.
      

If we get a negative last time and a slow one this time it will be a dream on mining difficulty.  I agree we will see a little jump though.

I would say say it's going to be 5-10% this time. What do I win if I'm right? :)

yeah  .6 watt gear will sell to a lot of people. I have a 4k-5k power limit in my garage.

 Thus sp20's downclocked to .55 watts are a natural upgrade for me from s-3's  I am not the only one.

With .1 electricity I could not justify changing yet.  I do admit I love my sp20.  Bitmain and SP are my favorite companies on current gen.  With winter have went over 11k watts currently used for mining.  Getting ready to rewire my computer network where I have access to 6 k watts or so more, doubt i use it but wiring networking in case so I could quickly expand.

yeah the second one came today. they do .55  and .56 downclocked to about 180 watts a pcie connector I use around 740 -760 watts and hash about 1330-1360 on each one.

so 1500 watts gives me 2680 gh.   I can run 6 or 7 of them the whole winter. very tempting to turn  to them rather then running 12 s-3's  lot more hash.

this may be my last in house miner. 

i think this one will be at least +4%.

so realistically how loud are they really.. would you say you can keep 6 sp20's in a spare upstairs bedroom?

Most likely a regular bedroom will not be wired electrical for 6.  And it depends if you use a underclock its much quieter, if letting stock it is quite loud.   

Not unless you have extension cords running from every other room in the house to the spare bedroom. You'd be very lucky to have 2 in there without tripping the breaker. And you'd better have great ventilation in that room or it will make a sauna seem like an alpine meadow in springtime.

Going down a bit because of bad luck Estimated Next Difficulty: 40,035,797,928 (+0.07%)
Why don't u guys mod the sp20? atop of the fan make a cut for a second 12cm sucking fan. At the sides mount other 12cm fans... outside the case fans, but with screws to the case...

I think we will go down again.

A) you need to underclock set fan at 40 or 50  
B) if the bedroom door shuts and the room has enough windows to stay cool  maybe

my two are set at about 4x 180 watts vs max of 4 x 288 watts
I use  about 760 watts at the kwatt meter for each one  or 1500 watt for about 2700gh.  so you would need a lot of power to run 6 even underclocked.

As for modding it can be done but I personally don't need to do this.


http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1280x1024q90/903/Sphi87.png

Because they say opening it up voids warranty.     So kinda not something you would do till warranty runs out.

I wonder who swithched OFF ~30ph in basically one day. It plunged from 304 to 274PH.
Network was kind of weird in the last month or so-sudden surges followed by deep plunges in hashing speed.
I still stay by my conviction that it would pay for someone to purchase calls on bitcoin, then purchase hashing, switch it off and see a spike in bitcoin price soon afterwards. Rinse and repeat.

A large dragon farm?
A large s-2 farm?

Older bitfury farm?

A little of each?

end of june 2014 the network had 120ph   almost all of that gear is out dated .  since most of it was 1.2 to 2.5 watt gear.

so when we saw the network at 300ph the other day I would think the higher watt gear was almost all done for.  but a few farms may have shut down this diff setting.

S2 and SP10 were available since April-May, and these two were probably responsible for a large part of growth between May-June. I bought a bunch of both in May. All are still profitable today. So I would say only 50-60 PH/s is really outdated and will be quickly replaced with cheap S4s, SP-somethings etc.

Also don't underestimate the variance. Some of these spikes over the last few weeks could have been just that. I doubt anyone is flipping a 20 PH/s switch on/off.

A 30PH dip can easily be attributed to variance due to bad luck... especially when that missing 30PH suddenly shows back up on the network a day or two later.

You are right about someday we will see a bump from Dragon's going offline.   It's hard to tell when as most are in very cheap electricity places, but if done proper they do have a decent cooling cost.

Well if you look at the 512 block hashrate chart, you will see that the hashrate is falling very quickly, likely more so then what I would personally attribute to "luck". I would say that some large farm is slowly being taken offline or inefficient miners are being taken offline as their owners are seeing they are no longer profitable.

I would predict that we see another small decline in the difficulty

Anything under 1% is good for me.

Bitwisdom is showing "Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,249,613,605 (+0.61%)" right now.  Will be one great month for miners if it could do little difficulty increase for a few in a row.  With winter could not have come at a better time.

 

with diff at 40  if it  slowly grows to 50 by  early spring lets say  March 24 2015  it would be a really nice winter.  that would be 2.85% diff avg  and it could do this

It's the 6th and looking good still.  BitWisdom - 40,049,976,470 (+0.11%)

I don't want to jinx it but it's looking good.   Makes me think some of the old stuff is coming off.   There are a lot of "dragon" miners and such.   I thought it would be a few months till people pulled them but maybe it's happening sooner then i thought.

We are about 550 blocks in, and the 504 block times are dead on:

1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

it can easily go either way.  Exchange rate is inching up, so let me make a conditional prediction: it it goes above $380 we'll see a diff increase, and vice versa.

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   ( - 0.22%)

Blocks   333189
Total BTC   13.580M
 
Difficulty   40007470271
Estimated   39916066515 in 1467 blks

Network total   268307.595 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.62 / 640 s



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty    (-0.55%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,007,470,271
Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,788,774,306 (-0.55%)
Adjust time:   After 1467 Blocks, About 10.3 days
Hashrate(?):   289,096,822 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   17:40 (5.2 minutes ago)

I can live with these numbers.   I earn money over my power bill .  So it can stay under 40 diff if it wants to.

nice one, difficulty is finaly stabilying.

well here we are on sunday morning  price is 370 usd and diff dropping just a bit.  frankly I thought we would have a 4% bump so far this drop is very nice.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.52%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  (-0.64%)

If we keep the -1% and go under 40 diff  on the 16th or 17th We may not get another jump until JAN 1 2015  which would mean from Nov 5 to Jan 1

we would have been basically flat lined close to a diff of 40 .    Plug that into your calculators and mining looks a little better then the negative talk we have heard.

a 55 day period with 0 growth looks like a very good chance .  WOW

Who would have ever thought this a few months ago? I am kind of wondering why? You think the equipment that is being sold is not new but sold from farms? Or do we have new equipment sales not keeping up with decommissioned and/or undervolted equipment?

I think dragons are going off line.  I think s-2's are going off line.  I think s-1's and s-1 mods are going off line.  I think 2  watt gear is going off line.

 Lastly I think the sp20's being sold were mining so when they sold they came off line get shipped and go back on line.

  so no real gain in hashpower.

I think this is true of s-3's
I think this is true of s-4's

I like this if it is true as the asic builders would be diff controlling rather then price controlling. I believe if they do this for dec to april most miners will do  well. and diff will not be much over 50 by april 1.

Of course I could be wrong.

I hope your right if so will be a amazing season of winter mining.   It will be interesting to see where that old gear is going.

A dragon makes around 0.01661539 BTC total a day not taking out electricity and assuming perfect results and no pool fees.   At current price if running a dragon at .1 KWH you will make around $2.07 each day after electricity is taken out.   That basically means most people paying hosting of dragons will make very little.

there is a ton of gear s-1 s-2 older bfl older bitfury dragon miner asicminer tubes all over 1 watt.

 in june the net work had 120ph almost all of it was over 1 watt gear.  this is all going offline  as it does not pay to run.

 S-3 is good at .8 watts and 10 cents until diif is at 100mill  we are at 40 mill

bitmaintech does not need to sell gear they can mine instead under current setup.

sell gear at just a bit too much to make us want to buy.  So if the gear sells but slowly and it is in their mining farms before it sells they do fine.

 the idea is to sell it slowly and down the road put in s-5's in their mining farm.
they have no pressure to rush under current conditions.  ------------ie they are making money mining.

this would only change if better gear is made available in bulk.. tons and tons and tons of sp20's  that never mined fresh off the assembly line would put pressure on bitmaintech.

So far  it looks like the sp20's  are premined and come off to ship then on when a buyer gets them.

I have no idea when they will come fresh from the factory or have many they have to sell.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,103,435,992 (-2.26%) if it's going a bit faster down, that 1watt gear may become good enough :D

Your theory only works if the ASIC manufacturers stopped making new miners. But we know that's not the case. So even if they are pre-mining, where is the hash from the next wave of consumer gear that they are supposedly mining with now? They're most likely still cranking them out so shouldn't the hashrate continue to rise?

I don't think Spondoolies and Bitmain pre-mine... at least not a significant amount. But don't we all know that home mining is just a small fraction of the network hashrate these days? So when the new batches are sold, they dont make a noticeable bump in the hashrate.

The only explanation that makes sense is that the big players (Bitfury, KNC, ASICMiner, etc.) aren't opening new DCs and are probably mothballing old, inefficient datacenters. But be warned, this lull will not last. The next wave of super-efficient ASICs will soon be hitting the loading docks by the container-loads at DCs near the North Pole. And Santa isn't running the show!

I do agree with one thing this will be a 2 or 3 jump lull.

but and here is the big but the big 5 or 4

 bitfury, knc, asicminer, bitmain-tech and maybe spondoolies produce 80-90 percent of the gear.

 if home miners only buy 10 percent and a few big players buy 20 percent for low power DC's that mean the builders are mining 70 percent of the coins.

This means network growth hurts them. Since they need to grow to keep 70 percent share of coins.

So there best incentive is to growth the network slower and just swap more power efficient gear.

  ie  swap a pair  s-2's for an s-4 and that   is a score for them energy wise.  scale it up 1000x or 10000x  same network hashpower at half the power cost.

They can just store some of the older gear since s-2's won't sell Or pull the heatsinks and the psu's and put them on the s-4's. Since the big builders have 70 percent of all mining between them the  slower growth keeps the mining making money.


The only way this fully changes is one of the big builders can make a .07 watt machine for a decent cost thus giving them an edge. (KNC says they will do this)
If they do and it works the shit hits the fan.  Now maybe they take till May to do it. Maybe .  BY then my winter mining is done and my  boost for 2-3th to 9th will have paid off. So In the meantime miners like me are enjoying this. I went big selling off a lot of s-3's and converting them to sp20's/
If diff drops to 39 I am good into Jan. If the lull continues all of Jan I am paid off for the switch by Feb 1.  At that time I could mine more or maybe just sell the gear. All of which is profit


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  >>>>>>> (-2.45%)

that is this morning's number it means a lot if it stays under 40 diff in the next 9 days.  That means all of dec will be at 39-40.

 Since the next jump would come about Jan 1.

I don't get why people are taking miners offline. I'm running 20 S1's undervolted, still profitable at a moderate $0.10/kwh. Spooky. But hey, I'm happy!  ;)

many many many people are over 10 cents.

but it is more the farm type with 1000 s1's  that would be likely to power off.  

btw if you get 180 watts for 140gh at 10 cents and live in a winter are you are also getting free heat.

so you are making about 50  a month on the mining and the heat is worth maybe 25-50 a month more so yeah why not do  that.


a farm with 1000 s1's does not get that benefit of 'free' heat.

Tuesday morning here in New Jeresy  and the diff for the 9th of dec is:



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>> (-2.25%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ >>>>>>>>>>>>>> (-0.87%)


https://www.coinbase.com/  has BTC at 348 usd

Wednesday  diff has gone plus

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+0.65%)  with 6 days  to go


Still hoping for under 1% but I think not.

I would agree it was great seeing negative a few days.  If this continues then we are looking at 2-3 is my guess.

Thurs morning here in New Jersey.

We are at 346 usd a coin and diff is (-0.05%) with 5 ½ days to go.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Would be very nice to see a second - diff. Time will tell.

looks like it will be right around zero. I think a lot of SP-XX units are getting in peoples hands and plugged in the last few days.

Luck variation and a lot of luck variation, hash power is kind of the same with old miners out and new in...
I guess s5 is working very hard atm https://blockchain.info/blocks/AntPool
https://www.antpool.com/poolStats.htm?tp=1 pool history

Overall difficulty has not jumped like I would expect if a new next gen miner was out.   

I think once AM or SP5 that are speculated are out we will see a overall jump we haven't yet https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,007,470,271
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,873,927,899 (-0.33%)
Adjust time:    After 587 Blocks, About 4.1 days
Hashrate(?):    292,698,355 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours

Would be nice to get a small drop -(0.55%) sounds good.  But in reality  I still think +(1.0%) is more like it.

Sat Morning 13th

 BTC = 351 USD  https://www.coinbase.com/
Diff = (-0.65%) https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  3.6 days left

At 3 days to go, it's going to be close to 0 again.

i like this diff, staying more or less the same  ;D
do you think this will continue, until more efficient miners come on the market?

 If so it will mean that

 nov 5   diff was  39,603,666,252  

Dec 16 to dec 29 diff would be 40,007,470,271

So for 54-56 days  you have a flat diff.  

with btc at 350usd  it could do this as long as it wants.

 I truly would love to see it last at under 42-44  up to my birthday in late JAN 2015.

 I knew it would get flater and I have been posting that it would do this  Since Sept 2014.

   I am very hopeful for a long time like this.

Interesting there are 3.1 days left to go
At present the calculation is negative we might be in for a second difficulty decrease (honestly was expecting a small marginal increase instead of it dropping a bit more downward)
Estimated Next Difficulty: 39,952,664,727 (-0.14%) 

Saying farewell to 40 million.

I have been looking for this to happen.  Just don't know if we are good for 1  or 2 or more jumps  like this.

If .3 watt gear can be built for good prices and if it goes to market in feb or march  .  we can all stand  pat for a while.

If will be interesting if .3 watt gear comes out in bulk at a good price. there is no question all the gear over 1 watt is leaving the network and getting replaced by .8 or .6 watt gear. This combined with the 350 usd price has really slowed growth.

If good .3 watt gear arrives it may force out all the s-'3s  this is possible at the correct btc per usd price.  and the network will not grow that much.

I replaced almost all of my s-3s with sp20's just easier to do. I kept my kwatts the same and boosted my gh a little.

some may lower the kwatts a keep the gh the same.

+1. My 1-1.2w/gh asicminer equipment will probably be unplugged the moment diff grows another 5%.

Just put a trio of sp31 units online for just over 14th/8kW - as long as jumps stay <5% for a few more months or price gets up past $600 again

Can't quite do that much my power max in the winter is 6kw.  in the summer 3 kwatt without A/C


right now BTC = 342 at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   and diff is   : (-0.46%)

with  only 2.5 days to go for adjustment    lower then +2%   looks like it will happen

the SP units are in colocaion, would be far too loud for my local mining farm (about a 14kW winter capcity, 8kW summer)

Noise is fine with my local farm.  I love the under clock of SP.  Right now I have it on high with low electricity might aswell for a bit.   But that under clock will come in handy in a few months (all depends on difficulty).

I also like my S4's they do have some noise aswell, but have a nice overclock in the cold winter air I'm using.

With the way difficulty has been going its a great time to be a bitcoin miner and make an ROI on any reliable machine

just keep it up for a few more diff adjustments. 

 lets say 39 in 2 days

  then 40 on the 30th.

41 on the 13th

and finally on my birthday jan 27th  a nice 42.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,822,366,803 (-0.46%)
Adjust time:    After 307 Blocks, About 2.1 days

Pretty amazing we need to throw a party if we get 2 negative numbers in a row.  I thought we would see 1-2 jump up but I will be happy to be wrong.

Well a lot of hash power is going towards paycoin.   this may be some of the decline.  as long as it lasts for a while we should enjoy it.

Go paycoin!

How much does mining paycoin compare to BTC on amount mined lets say per T?

(I could not find a good calculator)

There is no good calculator and their difficulty adjustment is very erratic, so it's hard to get a good estimate, but it's currently about 5-10 times more profitable than BTC mining. You can look at nicehash.com (SHA256) and you'll see how much renters are willing to pay, so that's a good indication too.

   No one really price knows it is heavily backed by GAW-ZEN>  I look at them as a possible destruction to bitcoin or a bust-out item  and not much in between.  They have a better concept on allowing "Normal" non-tech users spend it.  They are supposed to have a lot of Wall street money.  If they implement the coin as a credit-debit card type hooked up with visa's logo they will be the coin of the future not bit coin…  WhoTF  really knows if they can do all they say they can do.

But I still have a few bucks in their corner with an eye to shift to them big time if they are the real deal.   Another reason I went to sp20's over the s-3+'s. EASY to just switch over to mining them instead of BTC.  a lot of people thought that 2015 will be the year of the DC's  I think it is going to be a war between BTC  and Paycoin.  I hope it is as I can bounce back and forth between them
looking to get 2 nice half loaves of bread so to speak.

@ suchmoon in the last 24 hours nicehash has paid 4 to 10 fold the rate for btc if you rent your rig.

 So 7th would earn about 0.100 btc  in 24 hours  and I earned 0.400 btc  in 24 hours renting the sp20's.

This has happened with other coins on westhash  every other coin went bust  and turned out to be stupid to mine. 

But paycoin promises more then any coin ever.--------------------       promises promises is the key. 

Paycoin does promise a lot after looking at it.   Wow it has pushed mining up in what your revenue is.   Great time to be a miner.    So many say you cannot ROI as a miner guess more in it for us.

Well, at 1.8 days to go, the estimate is -0.95%. Mining activity has stopped growing for now.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate-all.png?1418627703

Well even if it does stop growing for a while
IT was A DAMN good run the difficulty is so much higher than it was a year ago when USB sticks were all the rage lol.

Not to derail this thread any further... but you need to do some more research on Paycoin if you think you're going to be able to mine it for very long. Their POW stage is only for 500,000 coins and then it's no longer mineable with ASICs.

the problem with the coin is it is really controlled by a central group.  Gaw-Zen is the controller of it.  They change  the rules often. So that 500,000 cap is not set in stone.

For now I am simply enjoying renting my rigs out to those that choose to mine it.

 The price was as high as .2btc a th  the correct price is about .013 btc a th. that is 15x the norm
The price to rent is going closer to normal it is down to .04   a th that is 3x the norm.   I have earned 1btc in 30 hours I should have earned 0.13 in that time.

  If I were to get  3 days at an average of 5x the norm.  I get all the more closer to having the sp20's paid off.

If the rush lasts for 2 more days diff will be 38 and change a 2% drop.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   =  (-1.08%) in 1.6 days

145 blocks to go we are at (-1.22%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


there is a chance that diff adjustment happens on  Dec 17th At 1 am east coast time.    that would be close to 15 days time.


today is a good day to be a miner!

Especially if you purchased your mining gear 4-6 weeks ago at a good price. You're halfway through ROI and now almost guaranteed to get there. Only a horrible BTC crash could spoil it.

Yeah, the price is going down a bit ;D
Making 7times as much as mining for myself! selling hash power atm

I am surprised its not down even more with the large amount of miners (like myself) selling hash which is mining the new alt coin and not BTC.

 The last couple of days and the last few difficulty changes  has helped me think I did good buying my last 2 used S3's  at a good price. (as long as BTC does not tank)

I sat back and did some math games.  we all remember coins at 1000 usd.

right now they are 337   but I should have earned  0.21 coins in the last 54 hours with my 7th

With these nut job prices  I earned about 1.372.

 I sold 1 btc to coinbase.  I would not normally do this  but I took some money out. The Wife could use some presents for Christmas.


with 17.7 hours to go (-1.15%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


BTC = 327 usd

A neg looks pretty sure

and diff you come between 11 pm today or 2 am tomorrow

Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,007,470,271
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,416,015,999 (-1.48%)
Adjust time:    After 74 Blocks, About 12.4 hours

Will be interesting once paycoin mining is done what this does.

Well  spondoolies has dropped the sp20 to 659 usd  .  So it will mean a lot more gear.  what interests me is does more and more keep going to paycoin.

Looks like I will keep a foot in each camp.  Since I can mine either  one with the sp20 I think spondoolies will sell a lot of them.

sale link note I get no money if you use it.

http://www.spondoolies-tech.com/products/holiday-special-sp20-jackson-shipping-from-stock


raskul  has been very helpful to me I buy with his signature link.  he gets some of the money. you pay the same.

1 block to go and (-1.36%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


new diff will be 39.4  or less depends on how long the last block takes.


and done http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  new diff is 39,457,671,307 a drop of (-1.38%)



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-0.32%)  new prediction


thread is locked here is the new one


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=895089.0

this is the second to last one for 2014.  to keep front page a bit cleaner I will only do 2014 and wait a week or two to do 2015.