Dec 2 to Dec 16th diff thread. ( +0.15%) to (+0.92%)

[FattyMcButterpants]

I wonder who swithched OFF ~30ph in basically one day. It plunged from 304 to 274PH.
Network was kind of weird in the last month or so-sudden surges followed by deep plunges in hashing speed.
I still stay by my conviction that it would pay for someone to purchase calls on bitcoin, then purchase hashing, switch it off and see a spike in bitcoin price soon afterwards. Rinse and repeat.

A 30PH dip can easily be attributed to variance due to bad luck... especially when that missing 30PH suddenly shows back up on the network a day or two later.

Well if you look at the 512 block hashrate chart, you will see that the hashrate is falling very quickly, likely more so then what I would personally attribute to "luck". I would say that some large farm is slowly being taken offline or inefficient miners are being taken offline as their owners are seeing they are no longer profitable.

I would predict that we see another small decline in the difficulty

[philipma1957]

I wonder who swithched OFF ~30ph in basically one day. It plunged from 304 to 274PH.
Network was kind of weird in the last month or so-sudden surges followed by deep plunges in hashing speed.
I still stay by my conviction that it would pay for someone to purchase calls on bitcoin, then purchase hashing, switch it off and see a spike in bitcoin price soon afterwards. Rinse and repeat.

A 30PH dip can easily be attributed to variance due to bad luck... especially when that missing 30PH suddenly shows back up on the network a day or two later.

Well if you look at the 512 block hashrate chart, you will see that the hashrate is falling very quickly, likely more so then what I would personally attribute to "luck". I would say that some large farm is slowly being taken offline or inefficient miners are being taken offline as their owners are seeing they are no longer profitable.

I would predict that we see another small decline in the difficulty

Anything under 1% is good for me.

[notlist3d]

I wonder who swithched OFF ~30ph in basically one day. It plunged from 304 to 274PH.
Network was kind of weird in the last month or so-sudden surges followed by deep plunges in hashing speed.
I still stay by my conviction that it would pay for someone to purchase calls on bitcoin, then purchase hashing, switch it off and see a spike in bitcoin price soon afterwards. Rinse and repeat.

A 30PH dip can easily be attributed to variance due to bad luck... especially when that missing 30PH suddenly shows back up on the network a day or two later.

Well if you look at the 512 block hashrate chart, you will see that the hashrate is falling very quickly, likely more so then what I would personally attribute to "luck". I would say that some large farm is slowly being taken offline or inefficient miners are being taken offline as their owners are seeing they are no longer profitable.

I would predict that we see another small decline in the difficulty

Anything under 1% is good for me.

Bitwisdom is showing "Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,249,613,605 (+0.61%)" right now.  Will be one great month for miners if it could do little difficulty increase for a few in a row.  With winter could not have come at a better time.

[philipma1957]

I wonder who swithched OFF ~30ph in basically one day. It plunged from 304 to 274PH.
Network was kind of weird in the last month or so-sudden surges followed by deep plunges in hashing speed.
I still stay by my conviction that it would pay for someone to purchase calls on bitcoin, then purchase hashing, switch it off and see a spike in bitcoin price soon afterwards. Rinse and repeat.

A 30PH dip can easily be attributed to variance due to bad luck... especially when that missing 30PH suddenly shows back up on the network a day or two later.

Well if you look at the 512 block hashrate chart, you will see that the hashrate is falling very quickly, likely more so then what I would personally attribute to "luck". I would say that some large farm is slowly being taken offline or inefficient miners are being taken offline as their owners are seeing they are no longer profitable.

I would predict that we see another small decline in the difficulty

Anything under 1% is good for me.

Bitwisdom is showing "Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,249,613,605 (+0.61%)" right now.  Will be one great month for miners if it could do little difficulty increase for a few in a row.  With winter could not have come at a better time.

 

with diff at 40  if it  slowly grows to 50 by  early spring lets say  March 24 2015  it would be a really nice winter.  that would be 2.85% diff avg  and it could do this

[notlist3d]

It's the 6th and looking good still.  BitWisdom - 40,049,976,470 (+0.11%)

I don't want to jinx it but it's looking good.   Makes me think some of the old stuff is coming off.   There are a lot of "dragon" miners and such.   I thought it would be a few months till people pulled them but maybe it's happening sooner then i thought.

[suchmoon]

It's the 6th and looking good still.  BitWisdom - 40,049,976,470 (+0.11%)

I don't want to jinx it but it's looking good.   Makes me think some of the old stuff is coming off.   There are a lot of "dragon" miners and such.   I thought it would be a few months till people pulled them but maybe it's happening sooner then i thought.

We are about 550 blocks in, and the 504 block times are dead on:

1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

it can easily go either way.  Exchange rate is inching up, so let me make a conditional prediction: it it goes above $380 we'll see a diff increase, and vice versa.

[philipma1957]

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   ( - 0.22%)

Blocks   333189
Total BTC   13.580M
 
Difficulty   40007470271
Estimated   39916066515 in 1467 blks

Network total   268307.595 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.62 / 640 s



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty    (-0.55%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,007,470,271
Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,788,774,306 (-0.55%)
Adjust time:   After 1467 Blocks, About 10.3 days
Hashrate(?):   289,096,822 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   17:40 (5.2 minutes ago)

I can live with these numbers.   I earn money over my power bill .  So it can stay under 40 diff if it wants to.

[BTCish]

nice one, difficulty is finaly stabilying.

[philipma1957]

well here we are on sunday morning  price is 370 usd and diff dropping just a bit.  frankly I thought we would have a 4% bump so far this drop is very nice.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.52%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  (-0.64%)

If we keep the -1% and go under 40 diff  on the 16th or 17th We may not get another jump until JAN 1 2015  which would mean from Nov 5 to Jan 1

we would have been basically flat lined close to a diff of 40 .    Plug that into your calculators and mining looks a little better then the negative talk we have heard.

a 55 day period with 0 growth looks like a very good chance .  WOW

[aurel57]

well here we are on sunday morning  price is 370 usd and diff dropping just a bit.  frankly I thought we would have a 4% bump so far this drop is very nice.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.52%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  (-0.64%)

If we keep the -1% and go under 40 diff  on the 16th or 17th We may not get another jump until JAN 1 2015  which would mean from Nov 5 to Jan 1

we would have been basically flat lined close to a diff of 40 .    Plug that into your calculators and mining looks a little better then the negative talk we have heard.

a 55 day period with 0 growth looks like a very good chance .  WOW

Who would have ever thought this a few months ago? I am kind of wondering why? You think the equipment that is being sold is not new but sold from farms? Or do we have new equipment sales not keeping up with decommissioned and/or undervolted equipment?

[philipma1957]

well here we are on sunday morning  price is 370 usd and diff dropping just a bit.  frankly I thought we would have a 4% bump so far this drop is very nice.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.52%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  (-0.64%)

If we keep the -1% and go under 40 diff  on the 16th or 17th We may not get another jump until JAN 1 2015  which would mean from Nov 5 to Jan 1

we would have been basically flat lined close to a diff of 40 .    Plug that into your calculators and mining looks a little better then the negative talk we have heard.

a 55 day period with 0 growth looks like a very good chance .  WOW

Who would have ever thought this a few months ago? I am kind of wondering why? You think the equipment that is being sold is not new but sold from farms? Or do we have new equipment sells not keeping up with decommissioned and/or undervolted equipment?

I think dragons are going off line.  I think s-2's are going off line.  I think s-1's and s-1 mods are going off line.  I think 2  watt gear is going off line.

 Lastly I think the sp20's being sold were mining so when they sold they came off line get shipped and go back on line.

  so no real gain in hashpower.

I think this is true of s-3's
I think this is true of s-4's

I like this if it is true as the asic builders would be diff controlling rather then price controlling. I believe if they do this for dec to april most miners will do  well. and diff will not be much over 50 by april 1.

Of course I could be wrong.

[notlist3d]

well here we are on sunday morning  price is 370 usd and diff dropping just a bit.  frankly I thought we would have a 4% bump so far this drop is very nice.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.52%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  (-0.64%)

If we keep the -1% and go under 40 diff  on the 16th or 17th We may not get another jump until JAN 1 2015  which would mean from Nov 5 to Jan 1

we would have been basically flat lined close to a diff of 40 .    Plug that into your calculators and mining looks a little better then the negative talk we have heard.

a 55 day period with 0 growth looks like a very good chance .  WOW

Who would have ever thought this a few months ago? I am kind of wondering why? You think the equipment that is being sold is not new but sold from farms? Or do we have new equipment sells not keeping up with decommissioned and/or undervolted equipment?

I think dragons are going off line.  I think s-2's are going off line.  I think s-1's and s-1 mods are going off line.  I think 2  watt gear is going off line.

 Lastly I think the sp20's being sold were mining so when they sold they came off line get shipped and go back on line.

  so no real gain in hashpower.

I think this is true of s-3's
I think this is true of s-4's

I like this if it is true as the asic builders would be diff controlling rather then price controlling. I believe if they do this for dec to april most miners will do  well. and diff will not be much over 50 by april 1.

Of course I could be wrong.

I hope your right if so will be a amazing season of winter mining.   It will be interesting to see where that old gear is going.

A dragon makes around 0.01661539 BTC total a day not taking out electricity and assuming perfect results and no pool fees.   At current price if running a dragon at .1 KWH you will make around $2.07 each day after electricity is taken out.   That basically means most people paying hosting of dragons will make very little.

[philipma1957]

well here we are on sunday morning  price is 370 usd and diff dropping just a bit.  frankly I thought we would have a 4% bump so far this drop is very nice.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.52%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  (-0.64%)

If we keep the -1% and go under 40 diff  on the 16th or 17th We may not get another jump until JAN 1 2015  which would mean from Nov 5 to Jan 1

we would have been basically flat lined close to a diff of 40 .    Plug that into your calculators and mining looks a little better then the negative talk we have heard.

a 55 day period with 0 growth looks like a very good chance .  WOW

Who would have ever thought this a few months ago? I am kind of wondering why? You think the equipment that is being sold is not new but sold from farms? Or do we have new equipment sells not keeping up with decommissioned and/or undervolted equipment?

I think dragons are going off line.  I think s-2's are going off line.  I think s-1's and s-1 mods are going off line.  I think 2  watt gear is going off line.

 Lastly I think the sp20's being sold were mining so when they sold they came off line get shipped and go back on line.

  so no real gain in hashpower.

I think this is true of s-3's
I think this is true of s-4's

I like this if it is true as the asic builders would be diff controlling rather then price controlling. I believe if they do this for dec to april most miners will do  well. and diff will not be much over 50 by april 1.

Of course I could be wrong.

I hope your right if so will be a amazing season of winter mining.   It will be interesting to see where that old gear is going.

A dragon makes around 0.01661539 BTC total a day not taking out electricity and assuming perfect results and no pool fees.   At current price if running a dragon at .1 KWH you will make around $2.07 each day after electricity is taken out.   That basically means most people paying hosting of dragons will make very little.

there is a ton of gear s-1 s-2 older bfl older bitfury dragon miner asicminer tubes all over 1 watt.

 in june the net work had 120ph almost all of it was over 1 watt gear.  this is all going offline  as it does not pay to run.

 S-3 is good at .8 watts and 10 cents until diif is at 100mill  we are at 40 mill

bitmaintech does not need to sell gear they can mine instead under current setup.

sell gear at just a bit too much to make us want to buy.  So if the gear sells but slowly and it is in their mining farms before it sells they do fine.

 the idea is to sell it slowly and down the road put in s-5's in their mining farm.
they have no pressure to rush under current conditions.  ------------ie they are making money mining.

this would only change if better gear is made available in bulk.. tons and tons and tons of sp20's  that never mined fresh off the assembly line would put pressure on bitmaintech.

So far  it looks like the sp20's  are premined and come off to ship then on when a buyer gets them.

I have no idea when they will come fresh from the factory or have many they have to sell.

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,103,435,992 (-2.26%) if it's going a bit faster down, that 1watt gear may become good enough

[xstr8guy]

well here we are on sunday morning  price is 370 usd and diff dropping just a bit.  frankly I thought we would have a 4% bump so far this drop is very nice.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.52%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  (-0.64%)

If we keep the -1% and go under 40 diff  on the 16th or 17th We may not get another jump until JAN 1 2015  which would mean from Nov 5 to Jan 1

we would have been basically flat lined close to a diff of 40 .    Plug that into your calculators and mining looks a little better then the negative talk we have heard.

a 55 day period with 0 growth looks like a very good chance .  WOW

Who would have ever thought this a few months ago? I am kind of wondering why? You think the equipment that is being sold is not new but sold from farms? Or do we have new equipment sells not keeping up with decommissioned and/or undervolted equipment?

I think dragons are going off line.  I think s-2's are going off line.  I think s-1's and s-1 mods are going off line.  I think 2  watt gear is going off line.

 Lastly I think the sp20's being sold were mining so when they sold they came off line get shipped and go back on line.

  so no real gain in hashpower.

I think this is true of s-3's
I think this is true of s-4's

I like this if it is true as the asic builders would be diff controlling rather then price controlling. I believe if they do this for dec to april most miners will do  well. and diff will not be much over 50 by april 1.

Of course I could be wrong.

Your theory only works if the ASIC manufacturers stopped making new miners. But we know that's not the case. So even if they are pre-mining, where is the hash from the next wave of consumer gear that they are supposedly mining with now? They're most likely still cranking them out so shouldn't the hashrate continue to rise?

I don't think Spondoolies and Bitmain pre-mine... at least not a significant amount. But don't we all know that home mining is just a small fraction of the network hashrate these days? So when the new batches are sold, they dont make a noticeable bump in the hashrate.

The only explanation that makes sense is that the big players (Bitfury, KNC, ASICMiner, etc.) aren't opening new DCs and are probably mothballing old, inefficient datacenters. But be warned, this lull will not last. The next wave of super-efficient ASICs will soon be hitting the loading docks by the container-loads at DCs near the North Pole. And Santa isn't running the show!

[philipma1957]

well here we are on sunday morning  price is 370 usd and diff dropping just a bit.  frankly I thought we would have a 4% bump so far this drop is very nice.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.52%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  (-0.64%)

If we keep the -1% and go under 40 diff  on the 16th or 17th We may not get another jump until JAN 1 2015  which would mean from Nov 5 to Jan 1

we would have been basically flat lined close to a diff of 40 .    Plug that into your calculators and mining looks a little better then the negative talk we have heard.

a 55 day period with 0 growth looks like a very good chance .  WOW

Who would have ever thought this a few months ago? I am kind of wondering why? You think the equipment that is being sold is not new but sold from farms? Or do we have new equipment sells not keeping up with decommissioned and/or undervolted equipment?

I think dragons are going off line.  I think s-2's are going off line.  I think s-1's and s-1 mods are going off line.  I think 2  watt gear is going off line.

 Lastly I think the sp20's being sold were mining so when they sold they came off line get shipped and go back on line.

  so no real gain in hashpower.

I think this is true of s-3's
I think this is true of s-4's

I like this if it is true as the asic builders would be diff controlling rather then price controlling. I believe if they do this for dec to april most miners will do  well. and diff will not be much over 50 by april 1.

Of course I could be wrong.

Your theory only works if the ASIC manufacturers stopped making new miners. But we know that's not the case. So even if they are pre-mining, where is the hash from the next wave of consumer gear that they are supposedly mining with now? They're most likely still cranking them out so shouldn't the hashrate continue to rise?

I don't think Spondoolies and Bitmain pre-mine... at least not a significant amount. But don't we all know that home mining is just a small fraction of the network hashrate these days? So when the new batches are sold, they dont make a noticeable bump in the hashrate.

The only explanation that makes sense is that the big players (Bitfury, KNC, ASICMiner, etc.) aren't opening new DCs and are probably mothballing old, inefficient datacenters. But be warned, this lull will not last. The next wave of super-efficient ASICs will soon be hitting the loading docks by the container-loads at DCs near the North Pole. And Santa isn't running the show!

I do agree with one thing this will be a 2 or 3 jump lull.

but and here is the big but the big 5 or 4

 bitfury, knc, asicminer, bitmain-tech and maybe spondoolies produce 80-90 percent of the gear.

 if home miners only buy 10 percent and a few big players buy 20 percent for low power DC's that mean the builders are mining 70 percent of the coins.

This means network growth hurts them. Since they need to grow to keep 70 percent share of coins.

So there best incentive is to growth the network slower and just swap more power efficient gear.

  ie  swap a pair  s-2's for an s-4 and that   is a score for them energy wise.  scale it up 1000x or 10000x  same network hashpower at half the power cost.

They can just store some of the older gear since s-2's won't sell Or pull the heatsinks and the psu's and put them on the s-4's. Since the big builders have 70 percent of all mining between them the  slower growth keeps the mining making money.


The only way this fully changes is one of the big builders can make a .07 watt machine for a decent cost thus giving them an edge. (KNC says they will do this)
If they do and it works the shit hits the fan.  Now maybe they take till May to do it. Maybe .  BY then my winter mining is done and my  boost for 2-3th to 9th will have paid off. So In the meantime miners like me are enjoying this. I went big selling off a lot of s-3's and converting them to sp20's/
If diff drops to 39 I am good into Jan. If the lull continues all of Jan I am paid off for the switch by Feb 1.  At that time I could mine more or maybe just sell the gear. All of which is profit


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  >>>>>>> (-2.45%)

that is this morning's number it means a lot if it stays under 40 diff in the next 9 days.  That means all of dec will be at 39-40.

 Since the next jump would come about Jan 1.

[armedmilitia]

I don't get why people are taking miners offline. I'm running 20 S1's undervolted, still profitable at a moderate $0.10/kwh. Spooky. But hey, I'm happy! 

[philipma1957]

I don't get why people are taking miners offline. I'm running 20 S1's undervolted, still profitable at a moderate $0.10/kwh. Spooky. But hey, I'm happy!  

many many many people are over 10 cents.

but it is more the farm type with 1000 s1's  that would be likely to power off.  

btw if you get 180 watts for 140gh at 10 cents and live in a winter are you are also getting free heat.

so you are making about 50  a month on the mining and the heat is worth maybe 25-50 a month more so yeah why not do  that.


a farm with 1000 s1's does not get that benefit of 'free' heat.

[philipma1957]

Tuesday morning here in New Jeresy  and the diff for the 9th of dec is:



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>> (-2.25%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ >>>>>>>>>>>>>> (-0.87%)


https://www.coinbase.com/  has BTC at 348 usd

[philipma1957]

Wednesday  diff has gone plus

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+0.65%)  with 6 days  to go


Still hoping for under 1% but I think not.