Bitcoin Forum

Some folks are feeling that everybody is becoming bearish, so they think that is the best time to buy right?
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful"?

They know price crashed in the past (for example in 2011 during the bear market from $32 to $2) but recovered.



Dear friends of the interwebs. You know that speculative bubbles based on blind hype don't go up forever right?
You know that the more they go up the more difficult it becomes to keep the Pump&Dump pyramid scheme exponential trend going right?
Eventually THE bubble actually bursts and it doesn't matter anymore if price recovered from crashes and bear markets in the past.


I'm sure during the tulip bubble crash, some dudes thought it was a good idea to "be greedy" when others were "fearful" and to buy somewhere during the big crash because "they had already been there" (during the mini bubble that you can see a little bit before the big pump for example).

They thought they were smart.




http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/30/683356-13646381593349972-Dan-Naumov.jpg    http://i58.tinypic.com/2djs5e1.png







They went broke.

They're dead now, but sure a lot of people got wiped out. Bitcoin is not tulip bulbs though. why not whack out a south sea chart to mix it up a bit?

Dotcom bubble, the South Sea bubble, the housing bubble...

Whatever floats your boat.

I'm still holding onto my tulip bulbs. It'll turn around soon!  ::)

Thing is, I don't believe there was ever any dispute that there were bubbles or that we are In a bear market. The next few months will really be an indicator of how much interest is left. we aren't going to zero.

i think there was actually quite a lot of dispute over this. permabulls said "there is no bubble." and the long term bear market was denied on this forum for many, many months. the question is, of course, how much further it could go....

like these two?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AKAM+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%7B%22start%22%3A%222000-09-30T17%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%2C%22end%22%3A%222015-01-09T18%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%7D%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%7D

and

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PCLN+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%7B%22start%22%3A%222000-03-30T17%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%2C%22end%22%3A%222015-01-09T18%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%7D%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%7D

the difference is that bitcoin is based on technology and future convenience of usage. It has a real world power and the potential to threaten the status quo.

Thanks for enlightening us about tulip mania, as it had never been mentioned before (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=43822.0)...

Holy shit.

Why didn't anyone here tell me about the tulip thing before?

That's the last couple of years up in smoke.

^^^^^

You two didn't get the point of the thread.
Too bad.

So none of these bubble inflated quite the same way bitcoin has again and again?

Ah, yes, my bad. Let me guess: not hating, just trolling? Or do you seriously believe your friends from the interwebs needed education?

This time is different.  ::)

So novelty! Much insight!

I guess Tulips had utility or functional value in society right?

oh wait....  :D :D :D lol

why do you noobs (who always seem to have crypto all figured out already) feel the need to constantly warn us about this thing you're convinced is a pyramid scheme / scam?  are they that concerned for our financial well-being that they have nothing better to do on the internet except persistently post their public service announcements that only get as imaginative as comparing bitcoins to tulips and Beanie Babies?   do they also frequent the Beanie Baby forums and urge people not to buy the 2015 Tie-Die model beanie baby, because they feel it is a bad investment?  why are they so hell-bent on telling us how to spend our money and rubbing our noses in it everytime crypto takes a hit?

because they are shorting and spreading fud

+1

Most people have an agenda here, especially anyone with apparently extreme opinions. Shorting and spreading fud sums it up nicely.

Whatever it is I just prefer to play it safe. Nobody can accurately predict the future so the best way is to wait for firm indicators before deciding what to do next. I definitely won't follow the tulip guy but I also won't continue to sit around on the sideline. I hope when I finally make the move it will be the right decision.

The fact that tulips comes up so much kinda makes the case a lot less powerful considering....that is one case out of hundreds of thousands of things that have had value throughout history.

But yet, tulips...brought up...repeatedly.

Hey guys...


tulips


it happened once, it can happen again


want an example of a bubble?

hmm...tulips?

Some people missed buying bitcoin at $1 or $50 tulip bulbs at $20-$50, can you imagine?


Jump in the train gentlemen, even if you are late!






http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/30/683356-13646381593349972-Dan-Naumov.jpg    http://i58.tinypic.com/2djs5e1.png

This is what is waiting for you friendly bitcoiners, look at the LTC chart:



http://i59.tinypic.com/2zxwcpj.png








You like it?
This is what will happen to your disruptive technology.

You're welcome.

Have you ever visited forums about religion?
There are always at least 50%+ atheists. When people think (know) they have figured it out they have the urge to warn the illusioned ones and wake them up from their crazy beliefs.
Why? Because it feels satisfying to speak and read what you believe is the truth.

Wait a few months.  Soon Bitcoin will be the poster child for bubbles.

http://s27.postimg.org/gwoyhpxxv/Capture.jpg

With the difference that you cannot actually PROVE anything in religious debates.
Atheists or christians/muslims/buddhists etc will still believe what they feel is right to believe/not believe.

With bitcoin on the other hand, the crashing price is just in front of you, there's no mystery  :'(

But they still believe. Crashing price is just "manipulation" or "shaking weak hands"

Ah, so we're at the old tulip game again, eh? Well, it has been proven and said many times before that you simply can't compare Bitcoin to tulips - well you can, but it doesn't make a lot sense since Bitcoin's supply is limited and it has inherent value. This is getting ridiculous...

I am proud of myself.
Bought LTC @ 40 USD
Bought BTC @ 1000 USD

And still holding.
I will be rich some day.





NOT! Bulltards

The supply is limited to approx. 21 million coins. You can't create more coins than that. Well you can, but they won't be valid  :) Tulips, however may be reproduced as often as you like, no one can limit the supply of tulips.

thing is i will never get the point of what you guys are doing in a bitcoin forum? saving us from ourselves ? How generous, welcome to ignore anyway  ::)

Ha yeah, man - A lot of people really don't get this. But when they do, they suddenly realize what this means. Over half of the coins already in circulation, a hard-cap of 21m coins. Bitcoin is inheriently deflationary, man!

Nah, the supply is not limited.  As we speak, hardforks are being considered by core devs.  A hardfork can change maxcoin, too :)

Finally, every shitcoin/clonecoin has artificially limited supply.  As do Beanie Babies.

Doesn't matter. It still depends on what the majority decides to accept as "canon". If they don't want the new rules, that chain will be abandoned more or less. Also, a hard-fork means that the "balances" will be doubled/split across the new chains. The total "market cap" so to say is now distributed across two (or more) chains. Effectively no loss in value.

By "majority," you mean the majority of mining pools.  Miners would rationally vote for the fork offering them the greatest reward, miners != hodlers.  What's good for a miner isn't necessarily good for a hoarder :-\

I can't figure out why you would compare to 2011 and not show a chart of 2011.  Trolls gotta troll I guess.

https://i.imgur.com/1JDCE6X.png

You didn't read, did ya?

Again.  Why compare to 2011 and not show a chart of 2011?  Trolls gotta troll.

Because in the all time chart you cannot see the 2011 pump even if you take the mtgox chart (which gives you an indication of how easier it was to pump&dump back then)?


Go on now, keep thinking that speculative bubbles go up forever.

No offense, but are you really that dumb? You should not be allow to surf the Internet without supervision.
Reading and understanding has to be really hard for you.

Tulips are nothing like bitcoin because you cannot spend tulips on hookers and blow.

ahh, so someone who does not support Bitcoin posting on the Bitcoin forums.

That is the fastest way to my ignore.

More than bitcoins, actually. Not even trolling.

@OP: why do you care?

So maybe delusional bulls will finally see the truth and stop losing money on a shitty investment thinking that the market will finally turn around during the "despair" phase?


What's the alternative? That I want to manipulate the market in order to buy cheap coins?
Sure, whatever. I just can't wait.

These arguments are superfluous. Clearly, both points of view apply in some respect.

12 months ago, Bitcoin was overvalued as an investment but undervalued as a technology.

As an investment it lost value this year. But as a technology there isn't much disagreement - even amongst the most hardened media trolls - that it is the future and it isn't hard to see why.

Up till now it's been impossible to create a monetary token that is electronic without being reproducible. It's simply the nature of electronic media that "copy & paste" rules and that has made it a huge challenge to create any kind of token that could be considered as tradable in such a way that it could not be counterfeited. The so called "electronic money" we use on a day to day basis isn't money. it's just a counterparty held balance that changes according to the instructions of other authoritative counterparties ("banks" to me & you).

With the invention of blockchain technology, the counterparty is no longer needed in the loop. This solves two problems that "tulips" never had a hope in hell of solving:

[1] - it provides the basis for an unbacked, unlevered electronic monetary base which, given that most of the worlds markets have moved from a physical to an electronic platform over the last century, is an inevitable consequence of modern technology

[2] - in principle, it makes the counterparty system redundant (I say in 'principle' because email didn't make the post office redundant, it just created a whole new medium where the post office was non existent)

Make no mistake. A technology which solves both those problems at once is of immense value - both practical and financial. Just look at the pain and anguish that was the common currency known as the Euro. And yet a couple of decades later we have a common currency that is self managing, doesn't require agonising years of debate between states and that is not enforced on anybody yet freely available to everybody.

Whether you think Bitcoin is "IT" or not, the technology is out of the bag and here to stay. As it happens, I think Bitcoin is now far enough down the line that it isn't now going to ever go away. The current valuation is fine - it's 300% to 400% what it was 18 months ago but what most people don't see if huge amount of infrastructure development that's gone on this year which will start to bear fruit now. It may not be some huge explosion - email wasn't, it just crept up on everyone until we were all using it.

To compare Bitcoin with tulips is a bit like comparing a modern aeroplane wing with a plank of wood. Yes - in some respects the comparison holds, but the only people who cite it as being significant are those with no clue of what makes one fly and the other not.

Cryptocurrencies will fly because they solve a huge problem - one that most people don't even realise they have yet because they've lived with it for so long. It  requires the supporting infrastructure to be advanced enough for mass adoption to take place, but take place it will.

Bitcoin's been exposed to the hacker community for longer than any other crypto and never been properly hacked. That alone makes bitcoin worth something and gives it more value than tulips. New 2.0 coins cannot compete with that yet. They can claim they are unhackable but only time will tell.

Actually tulips did have something of a supply constraint, because it would take 7 to 12 years to cultivate a flowering bulb from a seed. So no, tulips could not be spontaneously created as some of you seem to believe. People were willing to spend a lot on them because they were rare and rapidly increasing in value. Why else do you think they would have spent a fortune on them?? Simply because they were pretty??  ??? They expected a return on their investment.

You know.. exactly like bitcoiners. You can deny it all you want, but they're essentially thr same thing.

And you're essentially an idiot.  This is further backed by the fact that you created a novelty account called riiiising to counter falllling yet have broken out of character to become a bear.

Actually a disillusioned one who jumped on the bandwagon after all the hard work was done and is now throwing his toys out of the pram cos he didn't get rich quick enough.

Behold the world of debate, bitcoin style. When your opponent makes a perfectly valid point that you can't refute, call them "stupid".  :D

i bought this account from the original bulltard idiot who owned it, because he had lost all his money and was desperate!

Really.

I don't actually know the exact reason he sold it, but I wouldn't say it's a stretch of the imagination that he lost a lot on this market and needed the cash. My consortium has purchased several accounts from bullish posters in the past several months.. it's much easier to use an established account than starting a new one.

What do you need "established accounts for" ?

Even if this ridiculous story is true, it just proves the point that he has a hidden agenda, of trying to influence btc price downward. No good samaratin would willy nilly waste money or precious time just for the benefit of protecting all us bitcoin bulls/enthusiasts/believers, whatever you want to call us, from our helpless selves.

Well, basically, it helps us diffuse our message quicker and warn other potential investors about the risks of investing in bitcoin. We have other reasons as well, but I'd prefer to not delve any further into that.

Don't confuse riiiiising with riiiising.

Riiiising was an intelligent poster with a sense of humor.

Riiiiising is indeed an idiot.

That's basically the point. Don't take risks on highly speculative investments like bitcoin, especially now that all the air has been sucked out of it and it's falling steadily toward obscurity. If you had simply invested in the stock market last year, in basic index accounts, you'd have realized gains of well over 10%. Like Warren Buffett said, bitcoin is a mirage. Make wise choices, not get rich quick hail marys.

They seem pretty relaxed actually, unlike most of you that suddenly lose your temper (like you just did) because you read things you don't want to read.

You're obviously not very familiar with our friend D. Chow.

Holy shit, you're right.  I fell into the trap!  :-\

Later this year, people will see this thread and smile, remembering what it felt like near the bottom.   :P

It isn't headed for obscurity at all, as referenced by media coverage, VC investment and comp science breakthrough.

But yes, it is not as strong as:

the bull that is the USD - (see commodities and currencies declining v dollar)

the Fed, ECB , BoE - policies that have ramped the stock / RE markets. There are hundreds of billion / trillion dollar emerging markets that cant fight that shit.


With the risk profile of bitcoin there is currently more incentive (but less possible speculative returns) to get on the Fed train than jump into bitcoin in a major way, barring some black swan. Pro traders OTOH are having a field day in the kiddie pool.

Sorry grampa, I used the expression "lost your temper", should have used "mad and butthurt"  :'(


For all you know yes, maybe the beartrolls are "Facebook generation" little kids. But in that case the joke's on you. they are watching you get mad at them while you lose money by the minute  :'(



You and the other polite gentleman didn't quite get the point of the thread, but it's ok!

See you next year, when the glorious bull market will have finally returned!

http://images.sodahead.com/polls/000914379/Ufo_Cult_Love03_xlarge.jpeg

http://www.murlu.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/cult-following.jpg

I guess Tulips were becoming increasingly obsolete and on the verge of being replaced by superior bio-engineered varieties l right?

oh wait....  :D :D :D lol

No they're not essentially the same thing. Bitcoin is something that we can use as a modern monetary system that will ease the national trade as well as the international trade. Once the applications are developped enough, consumers and merchants can only be seduced by this technology.

Try now to create a modern monetary system with tulips that would be able to compete with bitcoin advantages... Good luck.

Still trying to pick up guys on the internet while losing money?
Carry on :-\

People in the 17th century bought tulips because they were rare and rapidly rising in value. Their goal was to ride it up and sell them to a greater fool, just as bitcoiners are doing now. You just don't want to face that. "This time it's different."™

You can claim that bitcoin will usher in a new age of international trade, but this does not appear to be happening and I highly doubt governments and corporations are dumb enough to transact with a digital currency that is so volatile with absolutely no regulation. If a major bitcoin exchange can't even keep their coins safe, how do you expect Sony or any other company?

"John in IT forgot to put those coins back into the cold wallet. Oops, guess all the company's money is gone."

...Not to mention the risk of insider attacks.

No, what's funny is you constantly losing money

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=1460&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

Quick!  Dump all your coins!  Bitcoin is only up 9 Million Percent since 5 years ago  :D

#bitcoin #pizza

A 5 year chart showing bitcoin's price in pizzas might stop people despairing.

First transaction ever was a Pizza for 10,000 BTC.  If we assume it was $20 then Bitcoin has appreciated 9 Million Percent on any price over about $180

So if it crashes to $1 it's still a win right?
Please, go on.



Also, the chart you posted is the same I posted, only in log scale. Same thing. Sorry but I don't have a tulip bubble log scale for the comparison. And frankly, it doesn't even matter.

Actually, "frankly", it does matter - quite a lot because the log scale is concerned with correctly representing proportional changes which the linear scale does not.

The reason you are so dismissive of is it because it doesn't happen to suit your little tirade in trying to convince people that they are wasting their time with Bitcoin. Despite that, the log scale is wholly appropriate when making an appraisal of the long term growth of an asset as opposed to short term trading of that asset.

What the analysis posted by poncho shows is that this year's trend is nothing like as alarming as you've been desperately trying to paint it. That applies in particular when you take three things into account:

[1] - the overbought condition in December 2013 given the state of the infrastructure development at the time. This was driven largely by the month long panic buy in China

[2] - the massive amount of VC capital and infrastructure development that's gone on in 2014 which is all "uphill work" that won't start to bear fruit till later this year. While that's all going on, most of the trading in Bitcoin is speculative - both the rises AND the falls. They don't remotely represent an actual reduction in adoption, technology development, service evolution, security consolidation or any other real world aspects on which a classic commercial valuation would be based

[3] - that this year's drop in valuation represents the cost of a "rights of passage" phase. Bitcoin has been chewed up by the media, kicked in the groins by MtGox, goaded by rumour such as the 'malliability episode', taken a hammering in the markets and yet come out of all of this without a scratch technically. The fact that it's still "alive" at all and still floating well above most of 2013's all time high is not going to go unnoticed in years to come. This year's experience gives Bitcoin massive stock value in terms of trust because no other coin has gone through this experiment and taken the hammering that Bitcoin has. They only way that could happen is if Bitcoin went to zero and we started all over again with a new 'leader'. Whatever the markets say, that still looks extremely unlikely to happen right now

So all in all, your superficial dismissal of what is a very important analytical perspective on this whole game just about sums up the depth of your commentary. I don't really know if you have a clue what your talking about or if your just trolling because your nose is out of joint but either way you're a broken record that's in need of changing.

When studying the anatomy of a bubble, a linear chart tells you a lot more than a log one. In the case of BTC, the "previous bubbles" like the 2011 one was done when market cap and price were RIDICULOUSLY lower and all it took to pump it was a little injection of fiat (aka, one or two deep pocket entities simply buying in).
What happened in 2011 is basically noise in the grand scheme of things.


"Massive amount" in venture capital? Less than a billion is not a massive amount, and venture capital is by definition something that can all fail miserably, like the insanely high number of bitcoin related start-ups that already failed. I am sure I don't need to show you a list of that...

"Infrastructure" in the bitcoin space is mostly smokescreen, and "adoption" is basically merchants accepting USD from a bitcoin dump through Bitpay (from people that probably ALREADY OWN BTC) and people wanting to gamble with the speculation aspect of bitcoin.



More than a year of bear market and being down more than 70% from the ATH and still being there with no signs of recovery is not a "healthy correction" in a "healthy market".
Especially considering that today a lot more people are aware of BTC (compared to 2011 when pretty much nobody was even aware of its existence, BIG DIFFERENCE).

Also, answer to your previous post:


The "blockchain technology" (the concept of a distributed ledger) has potential, sure, but:

1. Being forced to adopt a currency full of limitations and problems just because of the ledger is not gonna work.
2. the bitcoin blockchain is just an example of a distributed ledger, other protocols already exists today (and will of course exist in the future) that don't have the ridiculous limitations of bitcoin the currency and the bitcoin blockchain (and I don't want to go through that again, already discussed to death).

That's pretty much it.



Example:


The internet was an amazing invention that changed the world.
The dotcom bubble was just that, a bubble.

[1] Don't remember hearing anything about "overbought condition" at the time the bubble was forming.  I was told Bitcoin's hyperexponential price rise was a mathematical certainty.  Irrefutably confirmed by science in universities.
But you're telling me I was duped? :(

[2] So "most of the trading in Bitcoin is speculative"?  Now you tell me.  I was told something about great fundamentals, didn't understand any of it but it sounded very sophisticated and technical.  More bullshit, huh? :(

[3] Bitcoin's "rights of passage" phase?  Isn't that when a boy's buddies buy him a shit hooker and an eightball of shittier blow?
The reason  for shit press last year is because Bitcoin has attracted a lulzy menagerie of self-important attention whores, major scumbags, and petty criminals.  

Re. "superficial dismissal of what is a very important analytical perspective":  Hahahahaha :D

I will probably get bored and sell all my Bitcoins in Dec 2016. That is when everyone should buy.

I will let you all know if it happens sooner.

At least thats a bit more reasonably argued than the dismissive slamming that's characterised your posts of the last couple of months.

I don't doubt there will be diversity and more successful technologies in the space. But we're talking about money here - there have already been a flotilla of far more advanced 'coins' going up against Bitcoin and they haven't even made a dent in its marketcap. They're more advanced in almost every respect - speed of confirmation, anonymity, mining algo, non-mining algo, trading bells & whistle's like assets.

The reason they haven't made a dent is because bitcoin is currently seen in the role of a kind of crypto reserve through which the rest of the economy is valued. It doesn't need 'high tech' for that, it just needs to exist. 20 minute confirmations are fine. Banks take up to a couple of days to move money around.

None of us know the future, so I accept your point that this may not be the case in 10 years time or even 2. But a picture is emerging of alternative blockchains for practical use and Bitcoin as the reserve (demonstrated by the simple fact that the price of every alt coin is measured in Bitcoin, even the USD value is calculated by factoring through Bitcoin because it's the only one with a USD gateway to speak of). If that picture continues to consolidate then there's a good chance that it will be here in 10 years time regardless of what technology we use to buy our cornflakes.

Sure has  ;)

Yup.  And major scumbags, and petty criminals.  With vice-chairman of Bitcoin Foundation doing time for money laundering, and an ex-con for Bitcoin Jesus, you expected favorable press coverage?  Top kek ;)

Sorry, didn't see your first post....


Maybe you didn't read my post properly but I said that a logarithmic chart displays proportional changes consistently in a way that a linear one doesn't. That's the whole point of a logarithmic scale - to study relative growth.


That selective view happens to suit your argument. You could apply it just as selectively to any growth stage in an asset. In relative terms (as you've also pointed out later in your post) the stage we're at now is also one of 'pocket entities' relative to any major traded stock, The trend still holds.



I can probably agree with a lot of that observation but don't draw the same conclusions.

For a start, most people "are aware of BTC" through its infamy, not its qualities. So any growth is probably in spite of that promotion, not because of it. Secondly, although "less than a billion" is small in terms of VC amounts, it's downright huge when you consider the 'long shot' nature of the proposition and it's 5 times what it was last year.

People had been trying to do this for about a quarter of a century before 2009. Bitcoin was nowhere near the first but it was the one that worked. How it pans out ultimately remains to be seen and god knows how many times it's demise has been declared "final", but if it doesn't go to zero in the next couple of months then all bets are off because the longer this list (http://bitcoinobituaries.com) gets with said event not happening, the more dug in it's going to get.

P.S. Here's another one that can be added to the list....you might enjoy his commentary more than mine  ;)

http://blogs.reuters.com/edward-hadas/2014/01/08/an-early-obituary-for-bitcoin/

  Good point. As many have observed, all bitcoin really has to do to thrive is not die.

   Unless you consider google or amazon, but then bitcoin is not a company, bitcoin is the innovation. Another such technology based speculative boom would be railway or telecommunication, but honestly, bitcoin has the potential to add more value to the global economy than railroads or cellphones when the full extent of the inefficency of fiat is considered. Not to mention lost opportunities due to politically motivated embargoes that benefit only a few elite who happen to bankroll some influential governments...

   

Bitcoin's potential might be huge, but right now what is noticeable is the huge losses staring at us.  :'(

This is the reason Jews are often better investors. The strong history and intergenerational sense of group identity makes them better able to invest multigenerationally and weather business cycles.

Contrast to Keynes' famous: "In the long run, we're all dead."

This is still not as bad as the crash from $30 to $2.

yeah I don't think tulips solved the byzantine generals problem or could be configures easily as a trustless distributed network. But hey that's just me.

LMFAO,  :D "There was a point" lol

Solving the Byzantine generals problem is a pointless when you have no armies.
If you're impressed with trustless distributed networks which manage to solve it, there's a whole bevy of >>>/altcoins/.
Enjoy "investing" in them.

If I'm not being clear, I'll spell it out:  No one but a handful of paranoid libers *care* about money being decentralized.  Normal people just want money that
1) Is simple to use
2) Is accepted everywhere
3) Doesn't lose 75% of its buying power a year.

Bitcoin fails all three.  So now you're in the know :)

I was reading in the Wall Street Journal how Oliver Bussman CIO of the Swiss bank USB was saying block chain technology can be used for financial instruments :
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/10/27/ubs-cio-blockchain-technology-can-massively-simplify-banking/ (http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/10/27/ubs-cio-blockchain-technology-can-massively-simplify-banking/)
Pretty sure he said "Just like tulips" of course you can have side chains on tulips, for these financial instruments, unlike Bitcoin, so they are actually better...

You are looking at Bitcoin at a point in time. Think of the potential. :)

Sooooooooooooo did anybody listen?
Or we losing fortunes here?





Looks like we are on track.





http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/30/683356-13646381593349972-Dan-Naumov.jpg[/imghttp://i58.tinypic.com/fcqkc1.png




This is not a joke you fools, people are losing actual real money over this shit.

That they are losing money is best for them.
They call it filthy fiat. So better get rid of it.

I wish people's thoughts of that time were somehow documented so we could read about "cheap tulips"

I also hope this forum will exist 10 years from now for educational purposes, but somehow I doubt it, when you enter bitcointalk you'll probably see this


http://osgconsulting.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/PageNotFound.png

Yeah, once this whole thing collapses, there will be silence.

They should put bitcointalk thread pages in a museum when this is all over.




Let's play "Spot the difference", shall we?








Before (when I posted the thread)
http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/30/683356-13646381593349972-Dan-Naumov.jpg    http://i58.tinypic.com/2djs5e1.png



After
http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/30/683356-13646381593349972-Dan-Naumov.jpg[/imghttp://i58.tinypic.com/fcqkc1.png



Congratulations into sucking in noobs who listen to your advice and they hodl.

Especially during crashes and bubbles, it's important to try to keep both sides of the trade in perspective, as well as all the factors that could be in play or may be in the future.  Right now, nobody really knows what the state of bitcoin will be ten years from now, or what the price will be.  If they did, the price would already be there.

Bull case: a lot of money has been invested in bitcoin businesses in the last couple years, so it has some decent support.  There are still a lot of people who believe that bitcoin will succeed, and will likely buy in if the price drops low enough.  It's also important to consider that all it takes is one large investor (individual/group/institution) who has several million dollars to spend and the price could sky-rocket.  I would also think that some of the richer investors and businesspeople would start to defend their stake in the bitcoin economy by trying to manipulate the price higher.

Bear case: Bitcoin is still fairly new and has issues that need to be worked out.  A lot of financial institutions and money processors have been working on fast, efficient ways of sending money from one person to another.  These could compete with bitcoin and keep bitcoin less attractive.  You also have the unfriendliness of some governments toward bitcoin.  All it would take is the US government coming out with crushing regulations or an outright ban, and bitcoin could die very quickly.  It's also possible that if the price doesn't recover enough soon enough, many miners may stop mining, and block times could skyrocket, making mining that much less attractive.  Bitcoin could die simply due to such a technical issue (although that could possibly be fixed if enough of the community agrees to an updated algorithm/block time).

So there are lots of good points on both sides.  The first and best thing you can do is to recognize and accept that you cannot predict with certainty which way bitcoin will go.

Looks like we are in the despair phase:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/8ss69KFu/

I still se a lot of bitcoiners still say "but... but... bitcoin crashed from $32 to $2 in 2011 and then recovered! don't worry folks everything's just fine! History will repeat itself and the cycle will go on forever and ever  8)"



Looks like my thread didn't do any good for those poor souls  :-\
Can't help them, can't educate them  :-\

Cause they've never experienced a penny stock pump and dump.  Bitcoin "the scene" is eerily similar.  Same mantras. 

The difference is Bitcoin is useful! It doesn't mean it will win the war but it should win it.

Somewhat.  I'm certain pedophiles, terrorists and drug dealers have other means of securing their needs.

It seems that in everyday life you are surrounded with people from said categories. If so, try attending psychologist instead of flooding forums with doomsday messages.
In my reality bitcoin is used by regular people to book hotels, buy computers or make overseas transfers with near-zero fees.

Isn't that exactly what I'm saying???

You are just sick

Yeah, why pay fees when you can lose more than 30% of the purchasing power in days.
Adide from people who already own bitcoins because speculation or drugs, why should the average joe go through the hassle of buying bitcoins to pay for stuff online?
Why?

I personally know about a hundred of people who doesn't have credit card or paypal and it's really problem for them to buy something online or receive money from abroad.
They are not drug dealers, but IT freelancers and outsourced contractors who live not in US and they found that receiving their wage in bitcoin is cheapest and easiest way.
Yes, volatility is inconvenient sometimes, but anyway the other ways to receive money from foreign clients will usually cost them more (over 10%) and require much more time to receive.

You probably don't know, but for those who doesn't have credit card or paypal, it costs around 10% to use third-party service to order goods or pay for something online.

^
You personally know 100 people who are IT freelancers & can't get a CC?  What did they do, default on a million loans?
How about you stop hanging out with degenerates?  Those people will only bring you down to their level, until you find yourself in some sleazy hotel room--booting shit crank & watching child pr0nz from "teh deep web." :D

What 'reality' is this exactly? I know dozens of people, from all walks of life, and no one has even started talking about Bitcoin on his own. I get the impression that almost no one has even heard of it, let alone need it.

But then again, your avator betrays your own ideological background. As an ideologist, you likely see things you want to see, even if they do not exist in those quantities or even if they do not exist at all.

It's time for your meds again Lambie, we know you use them. When is your pathetic life getting some meaning or purpose? To you and all other trolls, you don't realize half how sad your life is. Wasting it on a board while probably having the illusion that it makes some kind of difference.

Develop yourself :*

^Sorry Ivan's hoe, keep on hangin' with society's creme de la creme--IT "freelancers" [translation: unemployed] who can't get a CC.

In this thread i see only one degenerate who lives in sealed environment where pizzas and burgers are grown on farms and credit score and SSN are coded in DNA of newborns.
BTW, why in almost every your post you are mentioning child pron or drugs? Does it play a significant role in your reality ?

How many hours did you spend here? Is your life really that pathetic that you have nothing better to do? If you are a paid troll, wasn't there really no better job for you? What are your capabilities? What skills do you have? Be ambitious lambie, everything is better than what you are doing know.. What if someone in the outside world asks to what you are doing whole day? Do you even have social contacts? 

Develop yourself :*

.@zeroday:
I mention child porn and drugs because procurement of both is objectively easier with Bitcoin as opposed to CC.
Tell me more about your 100 of unemployed IT freelancer buddies tho?

@Ivan's hoe:  Need a hug?

If in your reality being employed (translation: being a slave) and having CC (translation: being perpetual debtor) means having success in your life, I'm really glad I'm not you.
I wish you having a pleasure being a little brick in a wall and serve your masters.



If you are so curious, you may just click at my signature to find out more about my business and my relationship with our contractors

Sounds like you need some serious help?

>slave
>brick in the wall

Sorry about your daddy issues with reality.  Carry on.

http://rs651.pbsrc.com/albums/uu240/bengiyo/FightThePower.jpg~c200

@Ivan's hoe:  Doing fine, actually.  As long as you cultists are around, making money on Bitcoin is fun & easy :)

You noticed that too? Intravenous injection seems to be her favorite method.

Perhaps the Brony thing has something to do with it as well.

 :D

Too bad, reality is that you don't make money. Talk is cheap. You are in denial, just face your pathetic life. That's the first step towards improvement. Even if you would trade, it still means that you wasted a lot of time trolling this board. Do you really have the illusion that the movement of the price would be different if your accounts didn't exists? Are you that delusional?

Step away from the keyboard, Ivan's hoe, you're getting belligerent.  Here, have a nice gif to feed your Bitcoin dreams :)

http://s13.postimg.org/df7lv6ld3/e15_31111.gif

Everything's gonna be just fine...

Having read Lamb his posts over and over again, I'm quite convinced that he isn't in it to buy Bitcoins, nor do I consider him a 'true' troll. His wittyness is too above average for that, so I think his posting is just a way for him to enjoy a good laugh. And it is working though: your response (and the responses of others) is really poisonous, ad hominem like, which will motivate him to go on ;).

I was actually planning to step away from the keyboard yes, i have other things to do.

Fact is that you'll still be here for the coming hours. And tomorrow again, and the day after that again, the day after that again, the day after that also again. You get the point ;) You are wasting your life.

The reality a of person involved in international IT business who works with people around the globe.

I guess if you talked to the people about the Internet in the beginning of 1990s, you would get the same impression.


To see what caused me to use this avatar, just visit a thread in my signature.

Really harsh what they did to you. I understand what happened and why the EU acted as it did, but that doesn't make your loss less painful. What I do wonder though: was there no single sign about the imminent banking apocalypse down there? I believe I read about the crisis on Cyprus for more than a week before something actually happened there.

Zeroday:

To me it sounds unrealistic that the people you are talking about would use bitcoin, for a lot of reasons.
But even if that's the case, do you agree that we are talking about a ridiculous low number of people?
Sounds like you are suggesting that bitcoin is a currency for a marginalised minority.

The point of my thread is to show that the bitcoin price is a bubble and it's collapsing (and especially that the fact that in 2011 the price crashed from $32 to $2 and recovered is irrelevant, for example). Even admitting that the minority you are talking about finds usefulness in bitcoin (still have my doubts tho), price could be at $1 and stay there.

Since we have enstablished that the average joe has no reason to use bitcoin, will your minorities be sufficient for bitcoin (and not something else) to even survive? Considering the 3600 coins mined erryday and all...

Long story short: even if we admit that your minorities will use bitcoin (effectively making BTC a niche currency) , its price is a bubble and it's collapsing.

Yes, there were worrying signs about Cyprus economy, but just a day before funds were frozen my lawyer, my banker and many officials assured us that money on current accounts will not be affected. You may find details reading a few pages of my thread.

By the way if you talk to people from Ukraine and Russia you will find that many of them lost a half of their wealth because of manipulation of their countries national banks. They just don't have ability to convert their collapsing national currencies to EUR or USD because of banking restrictions.

Sorry to hear what happened to you but you can't say that bitcoin is a salvation from banks just because some banks fucked up.

Putting money in BTC, compared to a trustworthy bank, is pure suicide, let's be realistic here...
You are putting your funds in a speculative monster that is losing value every day, it's experimental (that's what andreas antonopulous and gavin themselves said) and might go to zero tomorrow for all we know.
Oh, and can be stolen very easily as soon as you have to move it around.

Wasting my life?  You undervalue Satoshi's Great Social Experiment.  Satoshi created a compressed time microcosm that mirrors the bigger reality. Where naked greed is given reign and punished, laissez-faire economy is given a chance & fails, the flaws of Austrian school are empirically shown, and the human animal could be observed & studied like naked mole rats in a plexiglass habitat.

http://photos.zoochat.com/large/skansen_akvariet_20-11-2010_heterocephalus_glaber_003s-134431.jpg

You're fascinating and useful, Bitcoiners.  Satoshi has created something wonderful, and I'm not missing a minute of it.
Now go buy some BTC--don't make me shake the box >:(

http://s2.postimg.org/7fno14e1l/ants.jpg

Isn't that an oxymoron?

Do I remember you from the Neo & Bee thread?  Did you "invest" in that Cypriot Bitcoin Bank thing?  How's that golden boy Danny Brewster doing, all good?

http://s29.postimg.org/fr1rzp4hj/Capture.jpg

pwnt :D

You really gotta be colosally stupid to compare tulips and Bitcoin. Nothing else to add to discussion.

Yet the charts look the same

Problem?

Tulips are crap, Bitcoin is (r)evolution of money. You don't see the difference?

Yes, we are talking about ridiculously small number of people comparing to the world's population. The same as it was in early 1990s when ridiculously small group of people started using Internet (I was one of them, by the way)

Minority, but not marginalised. I'd say it's progressive and promising minority, similar to those who was curious about computers in 1970s.
You know, if bitcoin was used by majority, its price would be far more that $100k/BTC  :)

bitcoin market cap is so small that extreme volatility and bubble cycles are natural for it. It's still in early stage of adoption, like The Internet in 1993.

Average Joe doesn't use many progressive technologies and hardly can create a simple text file on the computer. It may take years before bitcoin becomes widely accepted by majority, but now I see real progress with that.

About collapsing price. Nobody knows if we already found the bottom of the last bubble, but it's not going to zero. Bitcoin is still promising technology and now it's developing really well (not the price).

zeroday +1, you really explained the fundamental stuff to these non-brainers.

there are two things I see here, in the last year, one is we are on the backside of a 4 year bubble and all the "bubble prices" we saw before were just bumps in the road, and when this bubble ends, a new one will begin, mainly because the device in question has usefulness just like others have mentioned with the internet. we will see another dotcom bubble and another housing bubble, as well as another damn government fund bubble (quantitative easing) after these all have crashed and recovered, everything goes in cycles, the question is when it is falling and good to buy now, how long can you as an investor hold out. if you can do it for quite a while, then you stand to make a fortune, but if  you have to get that investment back in 3 months or 6 months, then I have bad news for you lol.

the one thing missing from bitcoin right now (and all other cryptos) is a solid exit strategy from crypto to real world product, with out having to go through fiat, and since very few exits to fiat (your bank account) exist other than the most popular ones like litecoin and bitcoin, you are going to see all the others value's tied to the ones with the exit strategy, we need one for materials and goods as well as labor produced goods and energy. do not forget an exit to energy. everything from cars to machine shops and manufacturing plants require energy and it effects their production directly, (ie pull the plug and everything comes screeching to a halt)

so I see (and am involved in some serious) production being developed that will mount on crypto's solidly. meaning it will be far more expensive to buy product from them with fiat than it will be to buy with scrap materials used for the production, or crypto instead.

oh yeah it should also be noted that there has been an enormous amount of FUD being spread in the real world having NOTHING to do with bitcoin with one exception, it has caused a lot of panic buying of various things (guns before gun bans, meds and supplies before an expected outbreak, remember the ebola scare?) gas stocking up or fear of it going back up so people holding money they did not have to spend when it went down in price, so they could be ready for it to skyrocket back up again, so this has seriously been draining the investment capitol to crypto and other investments draining the money inflow from investors, and only having money coming in from utilizing entities, whom are going to actually use the bitcoin and other alts they buy, at some point all the FUD should end for a while and the market will spring back to life everywhere not just bitcoin or gold and stocks.

Wrong. Who compares the Tulip mania with Bitcoin have no idea what they are talking about.

When you talk about tulips, you could plant them anywhere and as much as you want, therefore you would have an unlimited amount of supply.

So when the price went up, the farmers and who ever was in the industry started making crops of tulips like if there was no tomorrow.

The result was that the market was flooded with tulips and therefore the price collapsed to 0.

Now, when you look at Bitcoin, it is not like that.

First you cannot "Plant" as many coins as you want, second the mining reward halves every 4 years, which makes it more and more scarce every 4 years.

Thats the beauty of Bitcoin, its supply is mathematically controlled, there is no way to escape it.

If you are now in your mid 20s and you want a good retirement in 30 years, just buy now $1000 worth of Bitcoins, thats all you need.

Sit back, relax, and watch history being made.

Thanks Satoshi.

Exactly! There is some risk Bitcoin will not succeed but Bitcoin has everything to succeed so it should.

$1000 is 3.3 btc
who wants to wait 30 years to retire  wealthy ?

buy a few more ,no ?

I little bump for my bull friends.



Waiting for the "despair phase" to buy and trying to buy at the "capitulation bottom" expecting a new rally was maybe potentially profitable when price was at $2, or when it was at $50. On the other hand trying to do the same now at $150 after having reached $1200, a ridiculous pump&dump and an unsustainable level that requires enormous amounts of money pouring in exchanges every day, might not be that smart :)

NASDAQ composite  ≠ dotcom bubble

You shouldn't post a chart of the NASDAQ composite, you should post a chart of World.com or Pets.com.

Good job Nothatinjusttrollin, you just pulled off the impossible: you managed to get on my ignore list. I've been here for a long time already, and so far only 3 people or so ever made it to my ignore list, which means you have to do your very best to make it actually happen. Constantly repeating the same message ad nauseum serves no purpose at all.

Yes Nothatin, the price will go down MUCH further, but no one needs that exact same message every hour.

Sorry to hear that. I try not to post the same message every hour, I try to post arguments that are usually decently variegated.
For example now with the dotcom analogy, on the other thread regarding longs and shorts on bitfinex, and on another of my threads talking about bid and ask sums on all exchanges over time, etc.
I try not to be boring  ;D

the difference between tulips and bitcoin is, tulips can be infinitely multiplied, bitcoins can't.

WHAT.?

And I just sold all of my bitcoins for tulips. ..  :(

Bitcoin can be infinitely multiplied, see: hardfork.  If the 7TPS limit could be fixed by forking Bitcoin, so could the 21 mil coin limit.

Bitcoin is flawed at the very basic conceptual level--its security hinges on an [unreasonable] assumption that the interests of the miners are identical to the interests of the hodlers.
At the time of CPU mining, it may have been so, but with today's ASIC megamines it no longer holds.

Imagine being an owner of such a mining farm, having huge hangars full of [soon to be unprofitable to run] gear.  Bigger block rewards would clearly be more profitable for you, regardless of the fact that selfsame rewards would debase BTC in the long run :-\

difference is BTC is a innovation, and tulips are just another flower that will be around forever