Bitcoin Forum

I've sold most of my BTC at about $290 rate couple of days ago
I've finally realized that bitcoin is currently at a bubble state (took me long to realize that, eh?). In order for bitcoin to function we need as much as $100M market cap which makes like $7 per BTC. Shurely some1 may still hold coins so I guess the price will not drop below $20 (±$10). Not going to predict when it is going to happen, but it eventually will fall to this kinda prices.

Current BTC price is WAY too expensive. If you are not selling now you are going to wait for a loooong time to see $190. I am talking to those permabulls here who still beleive BTC is going up in value soon. Its not. Not giving any advice to day traders here coz I don't know much about day trading.

Time will tell if I'm right or wrong.

I love bitcoin and I believe its a game changer. But currently its a bubble. We should wait until it is down to about $20 per BTC and then buy back in to see it slowly rise to $10k :D

Posting this because I wish I've seen this kind of advice few months back when I could sell my stash at a rate of $400 per BTC

People are finally understanding the fundamentals of a currency :-)

You've been seeing this advice for a bit longer than a few months now... mr. Troll...

Bitcoin could go to 0 if something bad happened, but otherwise, I don't see it being possible to go under $125ish.  The fiat banking system is in such bad shape that tons of people are going to hold Bitcoin as insurace against it.

I've seen it but I didn't pay much attention. I wish I did since I was holding a considerable amount of BTC and now I regret alot I didn't sell it earlier
I know some people keep their life savings in BTC. I know it is painful to sell now. But you are going to wish you've sold today at a current ($180-ish) rate in a week from now.

there is no reason for BTC to cost that much. The only reason BTC may hold its value is by being a transactional tool. Less and less people will be keeping it as an investment. According to current transaction volume bitcoin will not fall below 7$ if nothing disastrous happens (like the end of the world or smth)

You do realize the real world financial system can collapse any second right?  What good does going all in on fiat do then?  This is why Bitcoin is worth something, the alternative is as bad or worse.

cost that much? righ now the market cap is ridiculous low, bitcoin is super undervaluted

I don't see world financial system collapsing any time soon. US Dollar is not going to lose 90% of its value in a couple of months unlike bitcoin

what makes you think this way?
I personally think bitcoin should worth $20 because of current transaction volume. It may not be a good investment tool due to its hight price volatility. This is my reasoning. What is yours?

there are too few bitcoin, to be worth so low, if everyone would have 1 btc it must be worth thousand of dollar, this isn't about reason it's simple math, it can't have such low value or it die

Very few people use bitcoin right now. It is still new and unknown technology.
You may see daily transaction volume
https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd
Market cap should be about this size

I do beleive that bitcoin (or similar decentralized currency) is going to be used by billions of people all over the world in not too distant future. But today bitcoin is still very new and unknown to the world and this is why current BTC prices are too damn high. Its a bubble which is bursting right now

funny, because before.. everyone was comparing bitcoin to the internet, and focusing on how the internet blew up overnight. now bitcoin's going to take decades to get off the ground? i'm not so sure.. and i never bought into the the internet comparison.

hm.. I think it took decades for internet to get from a laboratory network to a world wide web. Bitcoin is spreding very fast compared to the Internet. Altho not nearly as fast as bitcoin bubble pumpers would hope

It had its chance to go down to $20 or whatever many months after crashing from $266.  If we go that low again its cause its over.

The internet blew up overnight? This couldnt be further from the truth.
When compared to internet or email or other major technologies that required mass adoption the time has been 10-20yrs (depending on criteria and when did it start) and shrinking. In todays world everything happens faster.
2019 is 10yrs for bitcoin, if we assume it will happen faster... 2017?


@OP, I kinda feel the same way, lots of fkin regret from not going out earlier... However 20$ seems a little far fetched. Also the logic that market cap should equal transaction volume seems a lil flawed.

nothing is over
I see people calling death to bitcoin coz its price dropped. Price dropped because of a bubble burst not because something wrong with bitcoin itself. Bitcoin has seen several bubbles before and will probably face more bubbles in future.

It should hit $127 within a week. I sold my remaining BTC and will be back in NEVER. BTC is a bust. NO SECURITY, NO REGULATION and at this difficulty and price, NO incentive to mine.\ Buy gold. It has been here forever and will stay here forever. It is at the beginning of another bull market.

We are going up.

Yes, it will happen now  :D

1. You have weak hands.
2. It won't drop that low.

But what if you are wrong and someday you will have to buy back the amount that you sold off at much higher price. The point that I want to state is that we can never so accurately predict what is going to happen next.

Hold on a second...

    Comparing Bitcoin to the widespread adoption of the Internet would be akin to the following analogy.

----  We went from Internet being "expensive" to Internet being "cheap" and now we're going from Bitcoin being "expensive" to Bitcoin being "cheap".

    How could this be?

    Well, in the early days, maybe you paid $29.99 a month for 300bps access to CompuServe or Prodigy or God forbid AOL dialup.
    As the supply of bandwidth increased -- your cost went down.

    Now you can buy 50Mbps for $50/mo. in some markets of the US and the prices are better or worse in other markets.

----

    Back to Bitcoin.

----

    Supply and demand economics say we're going to evaluate the November 2013 price of Bitcoin purely due to high demand and limited supply.
    Let's ignore the short cycle of the market.
    When the reward halving happens and the emission curve diminishes yet again we shall see a similar but exponentially greater increase in the price of Bitcoin.
    The reason the next reward halving will have an impact an order of magnitude greater is due to the market hopefully having grown thus the demand side of the equation will be much more broad.

----

    This is where the comparison to the Internet stops dead in its tracks.

    You can't increase the Bitcoin emission without breaking the social contract and its economic model and Money Supply.
    You can forever add more networks and fabric to the backbone of the Internet which stabilize the monthly ISP subscription fee.

    One day, Bitcoin will either be a dead blockchain archived forever in a future Encyclopedia or it will be a commodity which has reached depletion and is being heavily traded by all peoples for any type of transaction.

Kind Regards,
-Chicago
    

Well you see, I will never "have" to buy BTC back because it will never bee a NWO currency. It can't be as it is too difficult for 99% of population to get into and then risk losing because of ZERO regulation. My prediction is that it WILL test $127 within then next week and if that does not have a rally from there....LTFO because he comes the $20's.

Actually this is based on simple charting combined with ZERO positive news.

I also think that. But if  happening, will be slowly.

1. I wish I had weaker hands so I'd sell few months earlier
2. What makes you think it won't?

Guys, just ignore these posts. Why do you insist on interacting with these idiots? They're still posting on a bitcoin forum about being "done" with bitcoin (or some other ridiculous state of affairs like $20/BTC). Don't you see the stupidity here? First they were too stupid to get out for their own liking, lost money, and now they're too stupid to stop wasting their fucking time on an asset they now despise and don't value. At the core, they're stupid, so stop interacting with these fucking idiots.

This exact statement was said like 100 times about $200 6 months ago.

You mad bro? :D I can feel your pain. I'd be as mad as you are seeing my savings melt like this. I am just alerting people. It may be a good time to sell now coz bitcoin price dropping every day for almost a year now.

I never said i'm done with bitcoin. I am willing to buy back my bitcoins when the price is about $20 as I believe it is the rock bottom everyone is looking for. Even if you believe in bitcoin there is no point in losing your money during this bubble burst.

Dropped from £170 to £128 in the last 2 days, what is this market lol.

Calling people names won't change your situation dude.

I'm not looking for it to change my situation. Just making a statement.

meh, meh.

its not going up any time soon. Unfortunately the price will get lower and lower until it matches the actual transaction volume

what do you mean transaction volume what the price would be then? am i missing something?

Nope, it is monetary theory.  If a monetary asset serves the purpose, and only serves the purpose, of buying stuff with, then its value (in fact, the inverse: the price of the goods expressed in that monetary asset) can easily be found using P x Q = M x V.

It's simple bookkeeping:

"the amount of money over the counter"  = "the total price of all the goods and services bought with it"  (in a given period).

The amount of money over the counter = the amount of money existing, times the average number of times a same unit has been spend.   That is M x V.  M = the amount of money existing, V is the average number of times the same unit is spent (in the given period).  It is also called the VELOCITY of the money.  V = 1/T, where T is the average holding time (in number of periods).

If the considered period is 1 year, and a coin gets spend on average 12 times per year (once a month), then the velocity is 12.  The holding time is 1/12 (of a year which is a month).

If there are 1000 coins, and they are on average spend 12 times a year, then 12 000 coins went over the counter to buy stuff with that year.

That must then be equal to the total price of goods that was bought, which is P x Q, where Q is a "reference good" and P is the price of the reference good.  Say that the reference good is "a loaf of bread", then the total amount of goods (expressed in equivalent loafs of bread) exchanged in a year is Q, and P is then the price of a loaf of bread.

P x Q is nothing else but the total price of all the goods that was bought, so it must be 12 000 coins too.

Hence, M x V = P x Q

Example: if the total amount of goods bought with bitcoin is $20 billion a year, and a bitcoin is held on average 14 days, then V is about 25.  M being 15 million (coins) we have that M x V = 375 million (coins traded a year).

If we take as "reference good" something that's worth $1.0 we have:


375 million = P x $20 billion.

P is the price (in bitcoin) of the reference good (worth $1).  So 1/P is the price of a bitcoin.

We find: 1/P = 20 000 / 375 = $53.3


So if bitcoin is used to buy 20 billion worth per year, and coins are on average held 14 days between a trade, the price of a coin should be $53.

What we have is that a lot of coins were held a lot longer, but a lot less stuff was bought with it.
It was not really used as a currency.

$20 ?!!?! The floor is 27$

Should be interesting...

The floor is nearing $127.00 then down to the $20's

His thinking is: we are falling from 1200 so the momentum should carry us below $70.

I think it is wishful thinking.  We will see a lot of buying in the 100-150 range

you are joking arent you?

this is circular logic, the transaction volume is also function of price, click on long term to see that

moreover, the transaction volume is mostly internal masturbation (inside BTC world), because adoption is still extremely low

there are calculations, comparing btc price to transaction volumes in credit cards, paypal or wire transfers etc: ranging from 4 to 5 digit prices for BTC to achieve that.

This is all bogus considering Bitcoin's primary uses are currently insurance against fiat implosion, speculation, and lastly black market.  Your primitive formula that doesn't address it's two main uses at all is obviously not valid in this discussion when it only partially addresses the black market and nothing else.  If it was that simple, you would be a billionaire in the gold commodity market, but you already know it won't work.

Where's your variable for fear index of fiat markets amongst dozens of other missing variables?  Your forumula is not useful for predicting really anything in this context.

Dude it's at 199 already again... Seriously these BS threads need to stop, read what is actually going on, the manipulation that drives the price down that cannot continue forever. If you bought the past days you can already sell for a nice profit today.

lollllllll

it hit $150 (the low) for like a few minutes yesterday.  Nobody is profiting if they bought the past few days, as even if it hit 200 today, that's still lower than it's average for the week, and much lower for the month.

Yes, we get it.  You want everyone to ignore the price and pretent like all is gravy in the crypto world.  By the way, there's a very big difference between FUD and reality.  By stating that the price is tanking and has been steadily over the past half year is living in reality.  The contrary would be living in denial.

A temporary 30-50 dollar bounces in a 24 hour period does not constitute a complete market reversal in public sentiment.

Did I mention a market reversal? No, I just stated the current price at the time and that if you were going short, you would have made a profit already. That's all.