Bitcoin Forum

Pirateat40 was feeling chatty during/after the rally/crash yesterday.

[2012-07-17 05:45:12] <pirateat40> There is one thing i love more than trading bitcoin...
[2012-07-17 05:45:21] <pirateat40> GETTING a reaction!

[2012-07-17 05:53:34] <pirateat40> Yes, Everyone BUY
[2012-07-17 05:53:39] <pirateat40> EVERYONE
[2012-07-17 05:53:45] <pirateat40> GO!, NOW
[2012-07-17 05:54:01] <pirateat40> The more you buy the more I make.

[2012-07-17 05:55:53] <pirateat40> zab_, this is the first time ive ever played the market.  It was simply a statement, I don't plan on making it part of my process.  It's simply a warning.

[2012-07-17 06:36:07] <pirateat40> Last warning....
[2012-07-17 06:36:31] <pirateat40> Sell everything
[2012-07-17 06:38:55] <pirateat40> I warned you guys right?

[2012-07-17 06:42:38] <pirateat40> Ill say it one more time, STOP BUYING
[2012-07-17 06:43:32] <pirateat40> Bitcoin bubble is not good for any of us.
[2012-07-17 06:46:33] <pirateat40> People are still buying like idiots.

[2012-07-17 07:39:58] <pirateat40> keverw, never trust a pirate.

[2012-07-17 07:47:09] <pirateat40> Who wants to go up?
[2012-07-17 07:47:22] <Chaaang-Noi> im okay with up :)
[2012-07-17 07:48:04] <pirateat40> ok... who wants to go down?
[2012-07-17 07:48:09] <Hexadecibel> I do!
[2012-07-17 07:48:17] <zab_> I want it sideways
[2012-07-17 07:48:28] <pirateat40> zab_, that's what i want.

[2012-07-17 07:53:20] <pirateat40> opticbit, do you know how pump and dumps work?
[2012-07-17 07:54:32] <pirateat40> opticbit, today's activity is based on the 80% of the market not paying attention.

[2012-07-17 07:57:21] <pirateat40> 80% is the people not in our tiny community.
[2012-07-17 07:57:28] <pirateat40> Im trying to make a point here.
[2012-07-17 08:06:28] <pirateat40> well guys, i think i've scared off the sellers. I'm tired and going to call it night and let the bots play.  IRCFrEAK, im pulling the my wall and dumping.... Get ready!
[2012-07-17 08:08:20] <pirateat40> Ya'll keep buying... ill see ya in the morning.  Night
[2012-07-17 08:08:38] <Chaaang-Noi> good night pirate
[2012-07-17 08:08:40] <Ferroh> ITS A TRAP

He warned to stop buying... then he crashed the market by 15% :o
... and made $20K USD

the best part is Atlas going crazy xD

... and made $20K USD

so why are all the pass through bond sitll being traded at more than face value.

Pirate is too small of a fish to control and direct the bitcoin market over the long run. He can try short term but longterm fail - as he has even already admitted.

Boo on editing.

And all those logs are neat and all...

But does anyone have a log with an IDENT in it for that pirate nick?

Otherwise it is just as likely that it was a random trolling the piss out of you...

Hear ya. Feel free to upload a raw logfile for posterity.

The tickers from the log give some weak indication of this.

What one could do is correlate the timestamps with high volume insantaneous trades and orderbook history from gox.

Easy to see in real time, a lot of work to correlate after the fact.

If it's an impostor, it's a psychic impostor.

If I had a raw logfile, I wouldn't be complaining.  If you can tell me which channel this was I might be able to look one up.

I wouldn't be surprised if he did this to make us all think that he is "always" in control of the market. If he succeeds in getting people to think that then he can get you to buy and sell when he wants.

People don't be stupid. The market is much much bigger than pirate himself and his massive ego.

If I had a raw logfile, I wouldn't be complaining.  If you can tell me which channel this was I might be able to look one up.

I wouldn't be surprised if he did this to make us all think that he is "always" in control of the market. If he succeeds in getting people to think that then he can get you to buy and sell when he wants.

People don't be stupid. The market is much much bigger than pirate himself and his massive ego.

Has it even been confirmed that the user was the real Pirate?

I don't believe so.

19:46 <jcpham> http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/wpcdv/confused_about_the_7895_btcusd_bubble_answers/
19:46 <jcpham> you is fgamous now
19:47 <Clipse> this is sorta a reason ppl shouldnt discuss how they play the market
19:47 <Clipse> ppl requote it and eventually a ton of ppl who would buy btc just doesnt
19:47 <jcpham> i agree
19:47 <jcpham> let's all be xtra secretive
19:47 <farfi> isnt that what he wanted?
19:48 -!- zefir_ is now known as zefir
19:48 <jcpham> i wouldn't content to know anything
19:48 <jcpham> but I will say I am surprised
19:49 <Clipse> i dont know what he wanted
19:49 <farfi> nothing surprises me in bitcoin anymore
19:49 <Clipse> but if you want to make your edge as high as possible in any zerosum game
19:49 <Clipse> you give out as little information as possible
19:49 <jcpham> i agree
19:49 <jcpham> don't tell the plebes you are selling the estate
19:50 <farfi> but you could use disinformation
19:50 <jcpham> let the new owners tell them
19:50 <Clipse> lol this market is far too new for disinformation
19:50 <Clipse> any new potential bitcoin user reading that will shit their pants
19:50 <Clipse> and not look at bitcoin anymore
19:50 <Clipse> wether its true or not
19:50 <farfi> even not new users probably did :)
19:51 <pirateat40> The point I made yesterday was to show the general community that if someone want to wreck the market by playing it for greed we'd all be left holding the bag.
19:51 <jcpham> i get that
19:51 <jcpham> maybe most people are stupid and do not realize what happens when one person can control a large supply of coin
19:51 <Clipse> we all know what happens
19:51 <pirateat40> So until the market can stand on its own, there needs to be someone that can counter just anyone moving in.
19:51 <jcpham> you just outed yourself though
19:51 <Clipse> it turns into fiat
19:52 <jcpham> i suppose pirateat40
19:52 <Clipse> pirateat40 : thats fine
19:52 <Clipse> but you sit with potential issue now
19:53 <Clipse> if mtgox knows your mtgox account there is allways the potential of locking you out, market manipulation is illegal and since mtgox and various other exchanges now state they comply with this/that law, I would be very carefull about posting about this.
19:53 <pirateat40> My business isnt about rattling the trees of coins.  Its about keeping a steady price channel and making the money doing it.
19:53 <Clipse> they may just turn on the moral code switch
19:53 <jcpham> i think all the lenders know what is at stake by now
19:53 <jcpham> the non-lenders probably just got a wake up call
19:53 <jcpham> and don;t like it
19:55 <Clipse> im all for what you are doing thats not my concern, I just think you should play it in the shadows rather before some random person decides to kill your exchange accounts and taking everything with it.. This is a real possibilty based on how you trade.
19:55 <Clipse> Magicaltux even had the trade engine run on manual for a while due to your trades
19:55 <Clipse> they do that when they see potential trading anomolies
19:55 <Clipse> and well yeh none of us want you to go down heh.

Hell, I would say it's healthy for the market. With all of the buying last night, there was another bubble in progress, and for my business, I'm not really interested in seeing that happening.

Here's a graph of the action with some of the pirateat40 comments from the IRC log correlated approximately.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2ngzj47.png

If what pirate was saying is true, he's feeding a stronger bull.

Here's a graph of the action with some of the pirateat40 comments from the IRC log correlated approximately.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2ngzj47.png

idk I'm most likely wrong, but what he did yesterday shows us his game plan and we see that its not a good plan

Here's a graph of the action with some of the pirateat40 comments from the IRC log correlated approximately.

The timestamps from pastebin are UTC +1 btw. Not sure if you accounted for that.

Can you clarify?

exactly, IMO pirateat40 is stuck in an impossible situation

idk I'm most likely wrong, but what he did yesterday shows us his game plan and we see that its not a good plan

 

+1

The market is already to big for him to control it.

Are you sure?  People thought the sun orbited the earth at one point, until they improved their mental model.

As pirate said on irc, it was the very short term price increase ("bubble") forming with the run up to btcusd=9.5 that triggered his correction.

The real question you should ask is, who was the pumper driving the price up, causing the panic buying?

(wasn't me.)

Are you sure?  People thought the sun orbited the earth at one point, until they improved their mental model.

As pirate said on irc, it was the very short term price increase ("bubble") forming with the run up to btcusd=9.5 that triggered his correction.

The real question you should ask is, who was the pumper driving the price up, causing the panic buying?

(wasn't me.)

Are you sure?  People thought the sun orbited the earth at one point, until they improved their mental model.

As pirate said on irc, it was the very short term price increase ("bubble") forming with the run up to btcusd=9.5 that triggered his correction.

The real question you should ask is, who was the pumper driving the price up, causing the panic buying?

(wasn't me.)

pirateat40 has taken a stand 9$ is the top, and hes got to convince everyone to fallow him back down bellow 7

The market is already to big for him to control it.

Are you sure?  People thought the sun orbited the earth at one point, until they improved their mental model.

As pirate said on irc, it was the very short term price increase ("bubble") forming with the run up to btcusd=9.5 that triggered his correction.

The real question you should ask is, who was the pumper driving the price up, causing the panic buying?

(wasn't me.)

Not really. If anyone understands that a growing market can't be manipulated down in perpetuity, it's Pirate. The objective is not to keep forcing prices lower, only to stabilize. The previous weeks were punctuated by an early rise, then leveling off for the duration. That kind of stable growth is critical for businesses to be comfortable with using Bitcoin as a primary financial service.


Again, there is no need to control it - only influence. This is a stabilization effort by a heavily invested party attempting to maintain the quality of the investment. What's happening is similar to gold, only gold is viewed as a limiting factor by financial industry participants whereas Bitcoin is viewed as a liberating factor by the equivalents.

JPM is the traditional financial giant, viewing gold as a mere trading instrument that limits its flexibility. Pirate is a Bitcoin financial giant, seeing the system as a vehicle that enhances economic potential.

This requires a perspective shift - the old paradigms do not properly apply here.

Meh, when push comes to shove is Pirate (or his heavily invested party ) really going to take money out of their pocket to keep the price "stable"?

jump to 9.50, back down to 7.50, and now 8.50 ya really good job stabilizing the market.

Ah, but the real question you need to ask is did it stop a larger price increase from happening? Without intervention, whose to say that the price wouldn't have jumped far past $9.5. With the steady climb today, it looks as if it's stable to me. Stable does not mean stagnant always.

Meh, when push comes to shove is Pirate (or his heavily invested party ) really going to take money out of their pocket to keep the price "stable"?

jump to 9.50, back down to 7.50, and now 8.50 ya really good job stabilizing the market.

I think this does show Pirate is getting unnerved by this growth in the BTC/$ value.  I expect him to decrease interest rates in his HYIP if prices go above $9 again and stay there at the least.  In the worse case he disappears with everyone principles and people start telling you "I told you so". 

I think he has scared off a lot of new money coming into bitcoin for a few days with his show of price manipulation.

Weather pirtate is about to get short squeezed

or

Hes trying to keep the price stable, to make bitcoin more attractive to new comers


They're Both Bullish signs  ;D

Good! Would you want another grueling six month decline after an unsustainable bubble formed on nothing but vapor? Do you think any business would touch Bitcoin at that point, even those that are enthusiastic about it? Long-term investor exhaustion is much more dangerous than short-term trader tantrums. Lasting wealth comes from the former.

I don't think Pirate himself is concerned so much with BTC as he is with USD.  By the way, he has a lot of that and his sum is increasing.  BTC can't pay his bills or buy him awesome shit, but USD can.  Pay some attention to the bid/ask walls in relation to what Pirate said about the danger of the BTC price increasing too quickly.   Think about the impact that a rapid price increase would have on the USD he's holding, and think of where he got that USD from, etc.   Also consider that Pirate needs USD to purchase BTC for interest payments, and check out the interesting "support" walls after a rally.  Like Pirate said, when there's a rally, people panic buy but new buy orders don't immediately rush in, but rather people eat away at the outstanding supply.  When there's a crash, people panic sell and buy orders are removed.

The relative stability we've seen is no coincidence.  We're riding a cycle. 

Why couldn't it be the other way around? He could be tricking all the people into selling, and make even more money, what makes you to suppose he was being honest?

I agree.  Why does anyone even trust this guy again?

BTCBTC ;DBTCBTC

I think I would have rather settled with the new money coming into bitcoin.  There was no vapour this time just growth and the market is more mature.  I think lots of other larger actors would have started dumping post $10.  This was just Pirate trying to protect his HYIP.  Yes I would prefer steady growth but not at the cost of market manipulation.

Yup. Greed, pure and simple.

Greed would've been letting a bubble form, then slamming the price down another 90% like the drop from the 2011 peak.

Pirate is one person acting on behalf of, and in conjunction with numerous others. For your claim of manipulation, everyone invested with Pirate is complicit. If other large players would've dumped above $10, would you claim they're manipulative as well? And if others were to drive the price down, it would help Pirate, not harm FPS&T.

If what Pirate said in that log that he can bring the price down to 1$ is true, then that means he has about 300,000 BTC at his disposal.

At 6% interest this would mean he needs to buy 18,000 BTC per week, or about 2500 BTC per day.

That's a signficant portion of the newly created coins per day.

If it carries on like this that alone will drive the price up.

Not if you buy it not on an exchange.
I think most trades does actually not happen on any exchange, and thus have no influence on the price.

Where can you buy 18k BTC per week outside of the major exchanges?

Where can you buy 18k BTC per week outside of the major exchanges?

I was speaking of the people who trust Pirate, not Pirate's motivations. As to his motivations, I think he had the ability to troll a still very volatile market, and used it for the lulz.

If you are customer of a bank that committed a fraud then your not complicit to that fraud.  People can sell large amounts of coins whenever they want but not do so in a way of trying to manipulate the market by telling other regular traders you are going to lower the price and encouraging them to sell also.

I just realized that if Pirate's BTC pool continues to grow by a modest 4% per week he'll have gathered all the available BTC (about 11 million) within about two years from now.

I wanted to add the Pirate's worrying about the Bitcoin price in USD and trying to manipulate it is an indicator that he is not running a ponzi.

If he were running a ponzi the Bitcoin price in any fiat currency would be irrelevant to his operation. It would be just bitcoins in (deposits) and bitcoins out (withdrawals and interest). There would be no need to change into fiat.

If anything Pirate should welcome a high price. He could cash out more then of his percentage he would be taking out of the scheme. So by driving the price down he would actually be diminishing his profits.

Where can you buy 18k BTC per week outside of the major exchanges?

It doesn't matter, you still drive up the price because you keep those coins from going to market. Even if you find some coins that would never sell at market but will sell to you the person they'd be selling to otherwise now has to go to market. Even if that person refuses to go to market they now either gobble up some coins that would have gone to market or they push some other person who cares less into the market. It isn't clear, but it's all connected. Demand is demand.

I wanted to add the Pirate's worrying about the Bitcoin price in USD and trying to manipulate it is an indicator that he is not running a ponzi.

If he were running a ponzi the Bitcoin price in any fiat currency would be irrelevant to his operation. It would be just bitcoins in (deposits) and bitcoins out (withdrawals and interest). There would be no need to change into fiat.

If anything Pirate should welcome a high price. He could cash out more then of his percentage he would be taking out of the scheme. So by driving the price down he would actually be diminishing his profits.