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Title: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: TraderTimm on July 19, 2012, 01:58:59 AM This thought experiment is probably full of some large holes, but just as an evening diversion I thought I'd throw this in here.
Western Union made $1.16 Billion on transfer fees in 2011. $1,160,000,000 One percent of that figure is: $11,600,000 Total number of BTC that represents at a current market price of 9.14 is: ~1,269,146 That number is about 13.38% of total Bitcoins in circulation. Now, looking at mtGox's order book: http://mtgoxlive.com/orders At the time of this posting it would take $432,281 to reach the price of 10.93 Now, the 'big leap' - if we can assume that same dollar amount for every +$1.79 of price movement (offers consistently appear) then: $11.6 million divided by $432,281 = 26.834 multiples of $1.79 rise in price, so the final price is: 26.834 * $1.79 = 48.03357 Current price 9.14 + 48.03357 = 57.17357 And now, this is where you say 'no offers will come' and 'we won't get 1% of international wire transfers'. Still, interesting based on some really small figures from the real world, wouldn't you agree? Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: ElectricMucus on July 19, 2012, 02:04:53 AM cool story bro
Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: TraderTimm on July 19, 2012, 02:08:42 AM cool story bro I knew I could rely on your insightful commentary. I like how its practically meme-free, indicating original thought and critical thinking. Lollerz... Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: ElectricMucus on July 19, 2012, 02:11:20 AM sorry, but I think we already have enough of these kind of threads/conjectures of BTC capturing some percentage of *something*.
It always leads to the same conclusions and the discussions are identical in structure. boring Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: TraderTimm on July 19, 2012, 02:12:57 AM sorry, but I think we already have enough of these kind of threads/conjectures of BTC capturing some percentage of *something*. Luckily you aren't the arbiter of "enough of something". Besides, if it doesn't interest you - why bother? Unless you just like to take cheap shots from the safety of your keyboard... Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: ElectricMucus on July 19, 2012, 02:15:47 AM But I'd have to start replying to threads on page 2,3-4 if that gets any worse, when effectively the same kind of thing is debated in every thread on the frontpage.
I think it is my right to complain at this point. Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: TraderTimm on July 19, 2012, 02:23:07 AM I think it is my right to complain at this point. Well, at least you're good at something. Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: ArticMine on July 19, 2012, 02:32:41 AM If one were to buy 11.6 million USD worth of BTC at market on MtGox today the price of 1 BTC would rise to 1 million USD. As crazy as this may sound it is indicative of how minuscule the Bitcoin economy is today.
Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: adamstgBit on July 19, 2012, 02:34:37 AM If one were to buy 11.6 million USD worth of BTC at market on MtGox today the price of 1 BTC would rise to 1 million USD. As crazy as this may sound it is indicative of how minuscule the Bitcoin economy is today. lol! this would be the most epic bubble from 1mill pre coin to 100$ ( in under 1 hour ) what do you think is gana happen if all of a suddend each coin is worth 1mill? Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: ArticMine on July 19, 2012, 02:40:17 AM If one were to buy 11.6 million USD worth of BTC at market on MtGox today the price of 1 BTC would rise to 1 million USD. As crazy as this may sound it is indicative of how minuscule the Bitcoin economy is today. lol! this would be the most epic bubble from 1mill pre coin to 100$ If past history is any indication more like a drop from 1,000,000 USD to say 65,000 USD in a six month bear market. Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: ineededausername on July 19, 2012, 02:42:12 AM This thought experiment is probably full of some large holes, but just as an evening diversion I thought I'd throw this in here. Western Union made $1.16 Billion on transfer fees in 2011. $1,160,000,000 One percent of that figure is: $11,600,000 Total number of BTC that represents at a current market price of 9.14 is: ~1,269,146 That number is about 13.38% of total Bitcoins in circulation. Now, looking at mtGox's order book: http://mtgoxlive.com/orders At the time of this posting it would take $432,281 to reach the price of 10.93 Now, the 'big leap' - if we can assume that same dollar amount for every +$1.79 of price movement (offers consistently appear) then: $11.6 million divided by $432,281 = 26.834 multiples of $1.79 rise in price, so the final price is: 26.834 * $1.79 = 48.03357 Current price 9.14 + 48.03357 = 57.17357 And now, this is where you say 'no offers will come' and 'we won't get 1% of international wire transfers'. Still, interesting based on some really small figures from the real world, wouldn't you agree? This is the 1000th time I've seen a thread saying, "if Bitcoin were to capture Herp industry and Derp fees and Hurr business, one bitcoin would be worth $10000000000000000." I've got a constructive recommendation: perhaps we should move all of these threads of the same form into a megathread, titled "Price Scenarios" or something. Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: ElectricMucus on July 19, 2012, 02:45:52 AM This thought experiment is probably full of some large holes, but just as an evening diversion I thought I'd throw this in here. Western Union made $1.16 Billion on transfer fees in 2011. $1,160,000,000 One percent of that figure is: $11,600,000 Total number of BTC that represents at a current market price of 9.14 is: ~1,269,146 That number is about 13.38% of total Bitcoins in circulation. Now, looking at mtGox's order book: http://mtgoxlive.com/orders At the time of this posting it would take $432,281 to reach the price of 10.93 Now, the 'big leap' - if we can assume that same dollar amount for every +$1.79 of price movement (offers consistently appear) then: $11.6 million divided by $432,281 = 26.834 multiples of $1.79 rise in price, so the final price is: 26.834 * $1.79 = 48.03357 Current price 9.14 + 48.03357 = 57.17357 And now, this is where you say 'no offers will come' and 'we won't get 1% of international wire transfers'. Still, interesting based on some really small figures from the real world, wouldn't you agree? This is the 1000th time I've seen a thread saying, "if Bitcoin were to capture Herp industry and Derp fees and Hurr business, one bitcoin would be worth $10000000000000000." I've got a constructive recommendation: perhaps we should move all of these threads of the same form into a megathread, titled "Price Scenarios" or something. I think that would be in TraderTimms best interest! Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: adamstgBit on July 19, 2012, 02:48:24 AM If one were to buy 11.6 million USD worth of BTC at market on MtGox today the price of 1 BTC would rise to 1 million USD. As crazy as this may sound it is indicative of how minuscule the Bitcoin economy is today. lol! this would be the most epic bubble from 1mill pre coin to 100$ If past history is any indication more like a drop from 1,000,000 USD to say 65,000 USD in a six month bear market. I dont know about you but I'd like to be a millionaire 300 times over! Oh OK ill take for 1 million for 300coins OK fine ill take 1/2 million for 300coin 65,0000USD for each of my 300coin... hmmm let me think about that... ya ok DEAL! ... 11.6 million USD invested wisely ( not bought up all at once like some crazy person) would bring us to (pulls a number out of his ass) 20-30$ and the guy would have about 1/2 million coins Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: Jointops420 on July 19, 2012, 02:52:15 AM Sometimes its hard to see anything from my lowly position in the shadows amongst the towering egos and mental giants in these forums.
Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: adamstgBit on July 19, 2012, 03:02:42 AM Sometimes its hard to see anything from my lowly position in the shadows amongst the towering egos and mental giants in these forums. the small players do have an advantage in this market when you decide to double your coins you dont have to worry about pumping up the price as much as someone with say 2 million, even a 1/2 million dollar investment in bitcoin has to be handled with care (cant just hit buy button). Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: TraderTimm on July 19, 2012, 03:03:28 AM This is the 1000th time I've seen a thread saying, "if Bitcoin were to capture Herp industry and Derp fees and Hurr business, one bitcoin would be worth $10000000000000000." I've got a constructive recommendation: perhaps we should move all of these threads of the same form into a megathread, titled "Price Scenarios" or something. Yeah, god forbid you read the detailed subject line, snort derisively and move on. Its better to complain and make a spectacle, you're *so* right. Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: TraderTimm on July 19, 2012, 03:04:36 AM Or collect all the posts and drop them in here ;D I think that would be in TraderTimms best interest! Must be a slow night in your mother's basement. Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: TraderTimm on July 19, 2012, 03:05:45 AM Sometimes its hard to see anything from my lowly position in the shadows amongst the towering egos and mental giants in these forums. Just quote a popular internet meme, link in some rage comics and you'll fit right in! That is, if you want to be exactly like some of the more 'colorful' characters in here. Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: ArticMine on July 19, 2012, 03:09:59 AM If one were to buy 11.6 million USD worth of BTC at market on MtGox today the price of 1 BTC would rise to 1 million USD. As crazy as this may sound it is indicative of how minuscule the Bitcoin economy is today. lol! this would be the most epic bubble from 1mill pre coin to 100$ If past history is any indication more like a drop from 1,000,000 USD to say 65,000 USD in a six month bear market. I dont know about you but I'd like to be a millionaire 300 times over! Oh OK ill take for 1 million for 300coins OK fine ill take 1/2 million for 300coin 65,0000USD for each of my 300coin... hmmm let me think about that... ya ok DEAL! ... 11.6 million USD invested wisely ( not bought up all at once like some crazy person) would bring us to (pulls a number out of his ass) 20-30$ and the guy would have about 1/2 million coins What I mentioned is an extreme that would have yielded our buyer over 126728 BTC at an average cost per bitcoin under $100. At the other extreme a very slow approach also runs the danger of setting off a buying panic and could end up yielding less bitcoin. There is likely some in between optimal strategy to maximize the amount of bitcoin for the 11.6 million USD over a period of time. Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: Jointops420 on July 19, 2012, 03:23:29 AM Sometimes its hard to see anything from my lowly position in the shadows amongst the towering egos and mental giants in these forums. Just quote a popular internet meme, link in some rage comics and you'll fit right in! That is, if you want to be exactly like some of the more 'colorful' characters in here. Lol I will try and pass the offer up. Its not hard to see why things are the way they are on the forums, lots of people passionate one way or another and everyone hopes their guess at the future is the right one. Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: Jointops420 on July 19, 2012, 03:30:37 AM Sometimes its hard to see anything from my lowly position in the shadows amongst the towering egos and mental giants in these forums. the small players do have an advantage in this market when you decide to double your coins you dont have to worry about pumping up the price as much as someone with say 2 million, even a 1/2 million dollar investment in bitcoin has to be handled with care (cant just hit buy button). True, I dont like to much risk and rarely trade but sometimes things seem to fall together and I throw my lot in with it and most of the time come out ok. Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: finkleshnorts on July 19, 2012, 04:04:07 AM I like these threads. They make me buy bitcoins.
Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: cypherdoc on July 19, 2012, 04:14:58 AM yeah these discussions do get kinda boring but the one regarding WU is particularly intriguing since that is THE corporate entity most likely to get hit when Bitcoin takes off. especially when their fees are so egregious.
as many of you know, i love to read things into charts and this 10 yr weekly chart of WU shows me a company that is struggling and has formed a flat bottomed descending triangle which should break to the downside in the next year or so. perhaps Bitcoin will do the honors. https://i.imgur.com/dpoj2.png Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: Bigpiggy01 on July 19, 2012, 06:06:44 AM +1
Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: TraderTimm on July 19, 2012, 05:48:18 PM Personally I think Moneygram, Western Union, Paypal and all the other middle-men payment processors are going to get murdered when bitcoin gains further adoption around the world. I'd make a composite index of all the payment processors into an index to track them all, but I'm quite busy at the moment.
Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: cypherdoc on July 19, 2012, 06:21:39 PM Personally I think Moneygram, Western Union, Paypal and all the other middle-men payment processors are going to get murdered when bitcoin gains further adoption around the world. I'd make a composite index of all the payment processors into an index to track them all, but I'm quite busy at the moment. just short them. Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: finkleshnorts on July 19, 2012, 10:01:26 PM Personally I think Moneygram, Western Union, Paypal and all the other middle-men payment processors are going to get murdered when bitcoin gains further adoption around the world. I'd make a composite index of all the payment processors into an index to track them all, but I'm quite busy at the moment. just short them. I would just buy bitcoins. PayPal et al will be pressured to implement new features to maintain an illusory status quo, which could in turn boost their value in the eyes of the public. Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: cypherdoc on July 19, 2012, 10:05:37 PM Personally I think Moneygram, Western Union, Paypal and all the other middle-men payment processors are going to get murdered when bitcoin gains further adoption around the world. I'd make a composite index of all the payment processors into an index to track them all, but I'm quite busy at the moment. just short them. I would just buy bitcoins. PayPal et al will be pressured to implement new features to maintain an illusory status quo, which could in turn boost their value in the eyes of the public. actually i agree with this. the mere fact that the Bitcoin market is less manipulated as a whole by Wall St makes the path much more clear; UP. i just enjoy trying to outmaneuver Wall St. traders. Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: TraderTimm on July 20, 2012, 07:18:11 AM actually i agree with this. the mere fact that the Bitcoin market is less manipulated as a whole by Wall St makes the path much more clear; UP. i just enjoy trying to outmaneuver Wall St. traders. One of the major reaons I trade bitcoin. Even with people using personal bots, BTC trades like a 'real' market used to trade 10 or so years ago. Consolidations, breakouts, etc... Now, in the indexes and such, High Frequency Trading makes volatility the rule, VWAP the targeting price, etc... I love how bitcoin trades, its 'honest' and reminds me of the futures markets before electronic trading algos 'effed up everything. Title: Re: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees Post by: Mageant on July 20, 2012, 08:11:32 AM Personally I think Moneygram, Western Union, Paypal and all the other middle-men payment processors are going to get murdered when bitcoin gains further adoption around the world. I'd make a composite index of all the payment processors into an index to track them all, but I'm quite busy at the moment. just short them. I would just buy bitcoins. PayPal et al will be pressured to implement new features to maintain an illusory status quo, which could in turn boost their value in the eyes of the public. Paypal could coexist very nicely with Bitcoin. All they would have to do is accept Bitcoin as one of their currencies. They could then serve as an instant payment system for Bitcoin. |
