Bitcoin Forum

Whilst the bitcoin market looks stable, traders desperately await a breakout. Since the beginning of February the price has been bouncing between 210 and 248, waiting for a near-perfect bearish breakout thanks to the absence of buying volume.

At this time, we would like to take a look at other fundamental factors that could potentially affect the bitcoin value in the coming months, maybe years. Firstly, the United States has doubled its quantitative easing, indicating yet another financial meltdown in coming years. This is reassuring for long term bitcoin holders as investors will be looking for other options to hedge their funds. As speculators believe, the demand of bitcoin will hit high during the economic slowdown. The bitcoin price surged 87% post-Cyprus bailout.

February 9th Bitcoin Trading Session

BTC/USD opened at around 224 yesterday, continuing the prevailing sideways movement in the absence of enough trading volume. As the day moved ahead, the price began to stir a little towards the downside, probably due to shaky hands leaving the market. A sell-off occurred subsequently, dropping the price down to 215, right inside the oversold region, though above the 210 floor.

The fall however failed to transform into a breakout, as price correction soon occurred and took price back inside the stable channels. At press time, the BTC/USD is valued around 220.

What to Expect Today?

As we review the chart, the technical indicators are once again inclined towards a bearish bias. The price is trading way below the 200-, 100- and 50-hour SMA while the RSI is stuck between the 43-47 area. The MACD blue curve is only a little below the normal line and has its head towards the south. We have drawn a red line, indicating the ultimate support point of the current bearish bias. If the price manages to break below this line, the pressure will once again fall on this year’s low of around 165. Once below, the price could tease even lower at the 100s.

In the case where the bitcoin price manages to move upwards, there is a series of resistance levels waiting to send it back to the 210 support area. A near-term bull run is hoping to find intra-day resistance around 230, and then later at 248. Even though these levels have a lot of selling pressure, any possible break above them will extend the bullish correction towards the 275-300 area.

Conclusion (On 1-D Charts)

Current Mood: Strong Bearish
Technical Indicators: Strong Sell (0 Buy 9 Sell 2 Neutral)
Moving Averages: Strong Sell (0 Buy 12 Sell)



https://www.coinarch.com/Info/Blog?Page=2015/02/daily-bitcoin-price-analysis-9th-february/

There is a downtrend but I'm thinking more in terms of when to go long

You shouldn't short near the bottom. You had the opportunities to short at $700, or $500, or $400, etc. You get the idea.

What makes you say this is the bottom? I expect BTC myself to go to mid $100's but hey who knows...

What makes you say mid $100s?  Why not low $100s?    We won't know if we hit bottom for awhile, but a high volume fight at $160 and the recent stability despite numerous attempts at pushing down make shorting here a bad idea IMO.

Well said. I only said mid $100s because once we approach under below triple digits there will be a panic buy up and fierce resistance downwards since, at least that's what I think.  The long term trend is still downward and we are moving sideways currently so IMO shorting isn't too bad.

I'd say the best market move to make at the moment is to short w/ some heavy leverage since so many people are thinking in this subforum that the 100s of any flavor are a possibility. Smart money is smart amirite?

I'd say the best market move to make at the moment is to short w/ some heavy leverage since so many people are thinking in this subforum that the 100s of any flavor are a possibility. Smart money is smart amirite? 8)

20x on OKCoin ought to do it, and don't pussy foot around trying to scalp on a 1$ movement.  COMMIT.

I think dumping price, maybe in one year still same and i see no hope for bitcoin  :'( :'(

Taking a short position now isnt the smartest decision.

tell me how an inflationary currency is an alternative to an inflationary currency

Tell me how half of America thinks homosexuality is a sin, yet sees no problem with gluttony.

 ???

R U OK , BRO?

you said the same shit when it was at 600$



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yes, it's always time to short

i just dumped my LTC in grace ... i'll buy back for 50 cents (maybe, if  i'm still interested later)

DON´T.  :)

Tell me you did shirt at 152 ? And regret it now ? Bottom is never a good time to short.

Probably i do. Always need ammo to dump on the retards pumps  ;)



i did 'shirt' on 290$ and haven't bought back since and you are butthurt cuz you haven 'shirted'


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Project all your asspain on me you broken bulltards, i enjoy it. lol

 :D

Everyone keeps saying this is a definite bear market and the price can't do anything but continue to go down for the foreseeable future. But why hasn't it already then? There is an uncanny resilience in the market these days. I do expect another crash, but I think this may be the last one. The market isn't bled out or run dry at the moment, it's merely waiting for things to happen.

There are times that even the charts and indicators are wrong. I just keep my options open. If it goes lower, then I'll buy more. If it goes up, then probably there's nothing much I can do anyway. Just hope for the best.

Seems like things have stabilized.  I have thought for a while price would be dropping, but now especially with the recent coinbase investments and exchange, I think things are looking up.

Show me where I said that

How does leverage work? For Bitfinex is like 3:3:1 or something like that, but I never did trade on margin, always using funds I had. Is it worth it, and what are its benefits/risks?

I agree, I think it will go down further before it increases.

Coinarch offer up to 10 times leverage. You can invest from US$10. If you think the price will increase you invest in a Long Booster, if you think the price will decrease you invest in a Short Booster. If you guess correctly you profit and if you guess incorrectly you lose your initial investment.

Fore example, Our trader of the week invested a small $15 in a long booster with 8x leverage on the 1st of Feb when the bitcoin price was 214. He closed his position 2 days later when the bitcoin price had increased to 237 and made 81% profit. Had he invested the maximum of $1,250, he would have made $1012. The same principle applies to going short. Had he gone short, he would have lost $15 only.

Hope this makes sense.

Shorting only makes sense if you do leverage, which at the same time leverage never makes sense because you can get on debt if things go against you.

Basically never short. Buy and hold. You require too much luck to win shorting. I dont believe in predicting the market, let alone small market noise.

I have a small 6 btc stash I trade futures with on okcoin @ 20:1 which I use for day trading.  I have my long position on Bitfinex.  I do agree you can get yourself into deep shit if your on the wrong side, but in this market currently it's to easy to make trades and gain a profit.  I take profits out and funnel them back into Bitfinex.  If you watch the market closely it's very easy to make gains.  I think the main issue with leverage (I used to do this) is holding on to long and not taking profit.  Before entering a position you need to establish when your going to get out and when the time comes you need to follow through with your exit.  In some cases it's better to hold longer (coinbase pump is a good example).  Also never go all into a position, I usually build my positions slowly constantly averaging out.

You seem to know what you are doing. Using a stop loss feature also helps as you can set the price you are comfortable with without having to watch the bitcoin price every minute. Are you interested in giving Coinarch a try? I can give you free brokerage for 7 days so you get a feel for the system. Email me at kimberley.silva@coinarch.com if you are keen.

Careful with stop losses though. You don't want your stop loss to trigger just before the market starts to go in your favorable direction.
Basically if you know what you are doing you don't need stop losses since you only margin trade when you are sure about what's going to happen next.

I never know how high or how low it will go but the direction it is going I know 95% of the time. Also always take profits when you start to feel like a god. This is likely the moment before things get worse. :P

Thank you for be offer,  but currently I will have to decline.  In the future if Coinarch comes out with an iOS app I will give it a shot.  The main reason why I use Okcoin is because of the iOS app.  I hate the web interface and I am always on the go so it makes things convenient for me.


I don't use stop losses and I found them to cause more losses than gains.  If I think there might be a huge market correction against me, I just will wait it out or trade very very small positions.

As stated previously I think the main issue with leverage is people's greed.  If you get to greedy you could wipe your gains in a heartbeat.  Always have an out planned before you enter, or take profit at a certain % gain

I don't even know what stop loss is yet. I try to limit myself to very few trades per MONTH. And all of them done manually, I dont leave open orders when I go to sleep and stuff like that. Too much stress.

It's impossible to go into debt with Coinarch, hence the reason why they are different from other trading platforms.

Obviously, if you guess the correct bitcoin movement i.e. if you think it will increase and it does, then you profit. If you guess incorrectly you only lose what you invest. You don't have to invest anymore. So if you invest $10 and leverage 10x it basically means you have 100 worth of bitcoins. If you guess incorrectly you will only lose $10 as opposed to losing $100. Though if you guessed correctly and the price moved 10% you would reap the rewards, you would profit $10, doubling your money.

Does this make sense? You should give it a try - sounds like you could make a lot of money.

A stop loss is a really cool feature. Basically if you were to open a long position with 10x leverage in the hope the bitcoin price would increase you could setup a stop loss so you don't have to watch your trade.

For example, let's pretend the bitcoin price is $220 and you're happy to close your position once the bitcoin price gets to $235 (6.8% increase). You can setup a stop loss for $235 and your position will automatically be closed out for you. You don't even need to be logged in. This makes trading really easy.

Create an account with Coinarch using Kimba as the invitation code and I will give you free brokerage for a week to help you get started. Email me at Kimberley.silva@coinarch.com if you have any more questions

Thanks for the feedback - The team are currently working on an iOS app. Valid comments.

In respect to the stop losses, I completely understand and it's all about what works for the user. Not everyone has time to watch the market 24/7 so it is good for the traders who dont have the time. Those that do have the time to watch the market don't need the stop loss feature though it is there in case. :)

Bitcoin can short terms go up or down but in long terms i bet it will hit seven digits. I dont think shorting is smart on bitcoin as you cant never tell if it will climb and never get back.

Leveraged trading is not a buy and hold strategy. margin should only be used as a short term trade to maximize profits for the smaller moves. Your 7 digits won't happen over night, so relax, an multiply your holdings.

How are those shorts looking ?

SQUEEEEEEZE

A short play to wait for 200$ 190$ or even lower is possible but it could break up to 280$ then 300$ and more too so it is dangerous.

DO IT BENNET. Short now. You'll regret it otherwise!  ;)

not now, i would wait a bit before going short

If he went short with a high leverage he is out or left with a huge loss.

I hope you did not short too much coins and make your balance shorter lol. Again, i dont think shorting Bitcoin is smart idea for anyone. Few good news and Bitcoin could go up and never be back this low.

No, I hope he shorted and lost a lot. It means the price will go higher, keep shortin guys

Just keep buying and shut up! Buy right up to $260 where I'll be shorting, mmkay pumpkin?

Did you enjoy that?

I enjoy buying Bitcoin at any price that's sub 500 USD. Guaranteed returns are guaranteed.

Its true, but theres also a chance in dips along the way, so maybe its smarter to wait for a better oppertunity.
Bitcoin wont go up to 500$ values anytime soon, most likely no action til midle 2016, few months before halving happens.
cheers

Agree

Really ? Since when have you been doing that ? How are the returns coming alongg ?

It's very important to look back at these threads and take in the sentiment. Everyone who shorted back on the 10th most likely hit their stops very very soon or maybe even got margin called when they used leverage. I'd never use leverage in this climate. Especially right now!