Title: Question about statistics Post by: Bardman on February 27, 2015, 10:05:35 AM Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50%
Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss? Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: WEBcreator on February 27, 2015, 10:08:03 AM Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50% Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss? no it doesnt gambling is about luck you could always hit a losing streak no matter what your calculation is, thats the beauty of owning a gambling sites i guess lol ::) ::) Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: dbshck on February 27, 2015, 10:13:16 AM Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50% Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss? No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen. Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Bardman on February 27, 2015, 10:21:06 AM Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50% Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss? No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen. You say the next bet chances are 50% but then you say they are 1 in a trillion Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: WEBcreator on February 27, 2015, 10:38:02 AM Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50% Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss? No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen. You say the next bet chances are 50% but then you say they are 1 in a trillion he is saying that it is all luck, you know with 1% of losing chance you can even score up to 5x lose streak if you are pretty badluck :-\ :-\ Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: dbshck on February 27, 2015, 10:40:59 AM Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50% Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss? No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen. You say the next bet chances are 50% but then you say they are 1 in a trillion I mean in a single bet. Even though you have 10 losses before, the chances for the next bet is still 50%. Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Bardman on February 27, 2015, 10:46:02 AM Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50% Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss? No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen. You say the next bet chances are 50% but then you say they are 1 in a trillion I mean in a single bet. Even though you have 10 losses before, the chances for the next bet is still 50%. How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50% Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: NUFCrichard on February 27, 2015, 10:46:15 AM Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50% No but human nature will keep you betting until you win. That's why casinos show the results of the last spins on Roulette, even though they are utterly pointless.Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss? You have to think logically about it, what about the last spin/roll would affect the next spin/roll... nothing Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: NUFCrichard on February 27, 2015, 10:47:44 AM Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50% Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss? No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen. You say the next bet chances are 50% but then you say they are 1 in a trillion I mean in a single bet. Even though you have 10 losses before, the chances for the next bet is still 50%. How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50% 230 gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against. Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: XinXan on February 27, 2015, 10:48:39 AM Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50% Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss? No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen. You say the next bet chances are 50% but then you say they are 1 in a trillion I mean in a single bet. Even though you have 10 losses before, the chances for the next bet is still 50%. How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50% 230 gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against. So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: dbshck on February 27, 2015, 10:50:14 AM How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50% 230 gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against. So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter It doesn't matter, in fact, it doesn't affect anything. The "lucky numbers" doesn't affected by your previous games. Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Bardman on February 27, 2015, 10:56:03 AM How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50% 230 gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against. So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter It doesn't matter, in fact, it doesn't affect anything. The "lucky numbers" doesn't affected by your previous games. I still dont get it, if it means you are unlucky means that there are more chances of winning the next bet. Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: NUFCrichard on February 27, 2015, 10:57:49 AM Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50% Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss? No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen. You say the next bet chances are 50% but then you say they are 1 in a trillion I mean in a single bet. Even though you have 10 losses before, the chances for the next bet is still 50%. How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50% 230 gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against. So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: cazkooo on February 27, 2015, 10:58:33 AM How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50% 230 gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against. So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter It doesn't matter, in fact, it doesn't affect anything. The "lucky numbers" doesn't affected by your previous games. it doesnt matter, it is just a calculation of the probabilty numbers which in fact may or may not happens because there is always a factor that is call luck Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Bardman on February 27, 2015, 11:05:26 AM How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50% 230 gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against. So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter It doesn't matter, in fact, it doesn't affect anything. The "lucky numbers" doesn't affected by your previous games. it doesnt matter, it is just a calculation of the probabilty numbers which in fact may or may not happens because there is always a factor that is call luck Ofc may not happen but if you get the possibility of betting at 80% or 50%, you would chose 80% even tho there is the luck factor because its a better probability Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: neoneros on February 27, 2015, 11:19:05 AM The chances are always reset everytime you must make a bet, the previous one does not add up to you luck, just to the statistics.
That is the fallacy of the three door/goat showhost riddle. You have to reset all your chances every time and not add them up for the next gamble you take. Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: cazkooo on February 27, 2015, 11:35:11 AM How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50% 230 gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against. So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter It doesn't matter, in fact, it doesn't affect anything. The "lucky numbers" doesn't affected by your previous games. it doesnt matter, it is just a calculation of the probabilty numbers which in fact may or may not happens because there is always a factor that is call luck Ofc may not happen but if you get the possibility of betting at 80% or 50%, you would chose 80% even tho there is the luck factor because its a better probability indeed thats why i call it luck factor, because with 98% chance to win, you can get a losing streak, so there is never a guarantee about that Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Phildo on February 27, 2015, 01:51:52 PM If the odds are truly 50/50 past results don't impact future probabilities. Even if you hit a long streak 1 way or the other, the results will approach 50/50 eventually, even though each individual flip will be 50/50. Let's use flipping a coin for an example.
You flip the coin 10 times and get 7 heads and 3 tails. So you have 70% heads If the next 10 are 50/50 you have 12 heads and 8 tails: 60% heads If the next 10 are 50/50 you have 17 heads and 13 tails: 56 2/3% heads If the next 10 are 50/50 you have 22 heads and 18 tails: 55% heads ... If the next 100 are 50/50 you have 72 heads and 68 tails: 51.4% heads ... If the next 1000 are 50/50 you have 572 heads and 568 tails: 50.1% heads. So the odds for each individual flip are still 50/50, but as we flip more and more coins the overall results head back towards 50% Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Phildo on February 27, 2015, 01:54:17 PM How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50% 230 gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against. So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter It doesn't matter, in fact, it doesn't affect anything. The "lucky numbers" doesn't affected by your previous games. I still dont get it, if it means you are unlucky means that there are more chances of winning the next bet. It is very unlikely to lose 30 times in a row flipping a coin. But, if you've already lost 29 in a row, you have already done the hard part, you've lost 29 in a row. The coin doesn't know that you've lost the first 29. After you've already lost 29 in a row, your odds of losing the 30th in a row are 50/50. Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: superSTAR777 on February 27, 2015, 01:58:35 PM House edge maters only if you are frequent bettor.
Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Bardman on February 27, 2015, 02:12:28 PM How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50% 230 gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against. So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter It doesn't matter, in fact, it doesn't affect anything. The "lucky numbers" doesn't affected by your previous games. I still dont get it, if it means you are unlucky means that there are more chances of winning the next bet. It is very unlikely to lose 30 times in a row flipping a coin. But, if you've already lost 29 in a row, you have already done the hard part, you've lost 29 in a row. The coin doesn't know that you've lost the first 29. After you've already lost 29 in a row, your odds of losing the 30th in a row are 50/50. yeah.. i think i get it, still a little bit confused tho Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Phildo on February 27, 2015, 03:37:55 PM why are you confused? I got a little lost in the top of the thread too so i started going off on my own.
Did my example with flipping the coin 1,000 times help? Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: birdcat90 on February 28, 2015, 01:11:45 AM well actually in gambling does not affected by statistic
on 10x pay out, if we rolls for 10x then theres no guaranteed for happening.. even on 2x there will be still a chance for lose Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Rating Place on February 28, 2015, 02:20:14 AM If the odds are truly 50/50 past results don't impact future probabilities. Even if you hit a long streak 1 way or the other, the results will approach 50/50 eventually, even though each individual flip will be 50/50. Let's use flipping a coin for an example. that's known as Regression to the mean.You flip the coin 10 times and get 7 heads and 3 tails. So you have 70% heads If the next 10 are 50/50 you have 12 heads and 8 tails: 60% heads If the next 10 are 50/50 you have 17 heads and 13 tails: 56 2/3% heads If the next 10 are 50/50 you have 22 heads and 18 tails: 55% heads ... If the next 100 are 50/50 you have 72 heads and 68 tails: 51.4% heads ... If the next 1000 are 50/50 you have 572 heads and 568 tails: 50.1% heads. So the odds for each individual flip are still 50/50, but as we flip more and more coins the overall results head back towards 50% Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Rating Place on February 28, 2015, 02:20:44 AM Since coin flips are independent events, each flip is 50/50.
Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: CryForMeSky on February 28, 2015, 04:15:09 AM How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50% 230 gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against. So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter It doesn't matter, in fact, it doesn't affect anything. The "lucky numbers" doesn't affected by your previous games. I still dont get it, if it means you are unlucky means that there are more chances of winning the next bet. It is very unlikely to lose 30 times in a row flipping a coin. But, if you've already lost 29 in a row, you have already done the hard part, you've lost 29 in a row. The coin doesn't know that you've lost the first 29. After you've already lost 29 in a row, your odds of losing the 30th in a row are 50/50. yeah.. i think i get it, still a little bit confused tho Nothing to be confused about, every flip is an independent event. You can say "if I flip this coin 4 times, there is a 6.25% chance that it'll be heads every time" but that doesn't mean that if you flip three heads in a row the next flip will be 93.75% to be tails...it's still 50/50. Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: magicmexican on February 28, 2015, 04:17:41 AM http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: funtotry on February 28, 2015, 04:21:47 AM Anything is possible. Its even possible for a casino to open and not win a SINGLE bet there. Keep in mind that the longer you gamble the more you will lose. Don't gamble more than you can lose!
Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Rating Place on February 28, 2015, 04:23:23 AM http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy Even though roulette isn't beatable, a professional gambler may be playing roulette for fun with his friends. If Black came up 10 times in a row, an amateur would play Red the next time. A professional would play Black thinking that there may be something wrong with the wheel. This isn't true for all. Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: ndnh on February 28, 2015, 04:26:45 AM House edge maters only if you are frequent bettor. Not really it matters for every single roll. With 1% edge, you have 1% extra chance of losing than with 0% house edge. For instance, you make a below 49.5 roll and hit 49.9.. Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Rating Place on February 28, 2015, 04:34:42 AM House edge maters only if you are frequent bettor. Not really it matters for every single roll. With 1% edge, you have 1% extra chance of losing than with 0% house edge. For instance, you make a below 49.5 roll and hit 49.9.. I think what he is saying that you have a better chance of winning with less trials. You can play with this to see why http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx (http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx) Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: ndnh on February 28, 2015, 04:42:25 AM House edge maters only if you are frequent bettor. Not really it matters for every single roll. With 1% edge, you have 1% extra chance of losing than with 0% house edge. For instance, you make a below 49.5 roll and hit 49.9.. I think what he is saying that you have a better chance of winning with less trials. You can play with this to see why http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx (http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx) What I was saying was that house edge matters even if you made only a single bet. Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: CryForMeSky on February 28, 2015, 04:48:48 AM House edge maters only if you are frequent bettor. Not really it matters for every single roll. With 1% edge, you have 1% extra chance of losing than with 0% house edge. For instance, you make a below 49.5 roll and hit 49.9.. I think what he is saying that you have a better chance of winning with less trials. You can play with this to see why http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx (http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx) What I was saying was that house edge matters even if you made only a single bet. This is true, but I think the point was that the more you bet, the more you get raked by the house edge. If your bankroll was 100 and your goal was 200, and you were betting @ 2x, you'd have a higher % of success betting once at 100 than you would betting 1 over and over. Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Phildo on February 28, 2015, 04:58:33 AM House edge always matters, it's just a different way of expressing the expected value of a bet.
If the house edge is 1%, you expect to lose 1% of your bets overall. Now, if you are playing a 50% chance of winning dice game that pays out 1.98 x your bet, you can't lose 1% of your bet in 1 roll, but the house edge is still 1, and it still matters because if you do win you only get 1.98 your bet instead of the 2x you should get. Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Bardman on February 28, 2015, 06:00:38 AM House edge always matters, it's just a different way of expressing the expected value of a bet. If the house edge is 1%, you expect to lose 1% of your bets overall. Now, if you are playing a 50% chance of winning dice game that pays out 1.98 x your bet, you can't lose 1% of your bet in 1 roll, but the house edge is still 1, and it still matters because if you do win you only get 1.98 your bet instead of the 2x you should get. But even if the payout is 2x and 50% seems like strategies would still fail with not much difference, its what i read around here Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Phildo on February 28, 2015, 06:47:46 AM House edge always matters, it's just a different way of expressing the expected value of a bet. If the house edge is 1%, you expect to lose 1% of your bets overall. Now, if you are playing a 50% chance of winning dice game that pays out 1.98 x your bet, you can't lose 1% of your bet in 1 roll, but the house edge is still 1, and it still matters because if you do win you only get 1.98 your bet instead of the 2x you should get. But even if the payout is 2x and 50% seems like strategies would still fail with not much difference, its what i read around here If the payout is 2x and the odds of winning is 50% you expect to break even. Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: WEBcreator on February 28, 2015, 10:42:18 AM House edge always matters, it's just a different way of expressing the expected value of a bet. If the house edge is 1%, you expect to lose 1% of your bets overall. Now, if you are playing a 50% chance of winning dice game that pays out 1.98 x your bet, you can't lose 1% of your bet in 1 roll, but the house edge is still 1, and it still matters because if you do win you only get 1.98 your bet instead of the 2x you should get. But even if the payout is 2x and 50% seems like strategies would still fail with not much difference, its what i read around here If the payout is 2x and the odds of winning is 50% you expect to break even. you are right but also note that there are 50% chance to lose too, either you break even or make your lost a lot more, and so the probabiity of you hiting 30x lose streak is always there ::) ::) Title: Re: Question about statistics Post by: Phildo on February 28, 2015, 01:34:01 PM House edge always matters, it's just a different way of expressing the expected value of a bet. If the house edge is 1%, you expect to lose 1% of your bets overall. Now, if you are playing a 50% chance of winning dice game that pays out 1.98 x your bet, you can't lose 1% of your bet in 1 roll, but the house edge is still 1, and it still matters because if you do win you only get 1.98 your bet instead of the 2x you should get. But even if the payout is 2x and 50% seems like strategies would still fail with not much difference, its what i read around here If the payout is 2x and the odds of winning is 50% you expect to break even. you are right but also note that there are 50% chance to lose too, either you break even or make your lost a lot more, and so the probabiity of you hiting 30x lose streak is always there ::) ::) Yes, but you have the same probability of a 30x win streak. And if the odds of winning are 50% and the payout is 2x you will win the same amount on your 30x win streak as your 30x losing streak, so you expect to break even. If you are going to be doing any sort of regular/serious betting please everyone look up and understand the term expected value. It's basic statistics and will at least give you some of the information so you can be aware of what's happening. I'm not saying to never take a -ev bet, but at least look up the basics so you know the odds and can understand what's happening and how the casinos make their money. |