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Title: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: Xiaoxiao on March 04, 2015, 09:09:45 AM Under what circumstances will it increase the price, if any? And under what circumstances will it decrease the price, if any? Will it effect the price at all? Let me hear your thoughts.
Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: Sindelar1938 on March 04, 2015, 09:26:29 AM Think the actual impact may be low. However if there is a sense that there were fewer quality bidders than in previous auctions, the price may temporarily sag
Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: Silly Money on March 04, 2015, 09:46:57 AM Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin?
Wait and see :D. Under what circumstances will it increase the price, if any? And under what circumstances will it decrease the price, if any? Will it effect the price at all? Let me hear your thoughts. It will only decrease the price if whoever buys them dumps them all but this is probably unlikely unless he gets them very cheap. They'll likely be bought to hold or save for investing into something else. I cannot see the price rising because of this, though. Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: Q7 on March 04, 2015, 11:45:41 AM The winner to the auction probably managed to buy at a discounted price, lower that the market spot price. If he decides to dumped everything to the open market then it will negatively affect bitcoin price. But somehow I don't think they will do that sort of stuff. With the future of bitcoin in mind, holding their stash and wait for the right time would be the most logical thing to do for now
Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: NeuroticFish on March 04, 2015, 11:53:25 AM 1. If it's a well known name, stepping up and telling "I won the auction and I will keep the coins because Bitcoin will have a bright future" will increase the confidence, the number of buyers and the price.
2. If it's somebody rather dumb that got the coins at a very discounted price will dump them all and will have a minimal profit. The market will go to new minimum and everybody loses. 3. This is what I actually expect to happen: the buyer will slowly sell some of the coins. The effect on the price will be unnoticeable (actually these days there's a chance for a rise of the price) and everybody wins on long term. Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: Silly Money on March 04, 2015, 12:42:06 PM The winner to the auction probably managed to buy at a discounted price, lower that the market spot price. If he decides to dumped everything to the open market then it will negatively affect bitcoin price. But somehow I don't think they will do that sort of stuff. With the future of bitcoin in mind, holding their stash and wait for the right time would be the most logical thing to do for now I don't think these sorts of bidders are looking to make a little profit on a quick sale. They'll likely be able to see the future potential in bitcoin and buying them for an investment or buying them to use or set up their own bitcoin-releated business. Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: finlon on March 04, 2015, 12:43:05 PM Well in the past, these bids have actually caused the price of bitcoin to fall. However these bidders don't buy bitcoins to sell them immediately in the market, so they should not be affecting the price by much.
Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: Amph on March 04, 2015, 12:45:34 PM what is the amount we are referring to? if it's something small it won't affect the price in any way, either way i think the price will keeps rising this time, they will not dump those coins
the wave is toward the pump Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: Omikifuse on March 04, 2015, 01:02:50 PM the auction is preventing the prices to rise further.
Expect a big pump after auction is gone Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: biggus dickus on March 04, 2015, 01:37:39 PM the auction is preventing the prices to rise further. Expect a big pump after auction is gone It depends who win and what they do with their coins. If there are not many bidders and someone gets them dirt cheap they might dump to make a quick buck. If Tim Draper wins them all and holds then the price might not crash. He only won one small lot the last time though. Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: finlon on March 04, 2015, 01:42:37 PM the auction is preventing the prices to rise further. Expect a big pump after auction is gone It depends who win and what they do with their coins. If there are not many bidders and someone gets them dirt cheap they might dump to make a quick buck. If Tim Draper wins them all and holds then the price might not crash. He only won one small lot the last time though. Well ,I doubt anyone who buys them will be dumping them, as the price will drop and he will lose money selling them. People who usually take part in these bids do so, to not buy that amount from exchanges, as buying will take the price up and they will be paying a large amount to buy the coins. Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: ajareselde on March 04, 2015, 01:48:32 PM what is the amount we are referring to? if it's something small it won't affect the price in any way, either way i think the price will keeps rising this time, they will not dump those coins the wave is toward the pump We are referring to 50 000 BTC , about two weeks of total block rewards, doesnt strike me as a huge impact on price. If im not mistaken , they will then have another ~44 000 BTC left for sale, asuming they control all seized coins. There are many scenarios on how the price may be affected, i find it most obvious that the price will pump (like it did), and then after march 5th, slowly correct back to ~250$ range. Heres some info on the sale: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2015/02/18/u-s-announces-third-bitcoin-auction/?_r=0 cheers Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: Kipsy89 on March 04, 2015, 01:51:03 PM I don't think it's going to affect the price a lot, man. Unless maybe they're reporting that whole batches didn't sell or someone reliable spreads rumours about them going for less than 80% of the spot price maybe...
Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: HarmonLi on March 04, 2015, 02:19:01 PM Buy the rumor, sell the news... In this case the announcement of the auction has caused the price to budge down quite a bit, but every auction we've had so far hasn't done anything other than maybe push the price up a bit.
Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: chriswen on March 04, 2015, 02:27:12 PM The only reason the auction 'caused' the price to fall was mainly because we were in a bear market and finishing the bubble cycle.
Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: HarmonLi on March 04, 2015, 02:28:17 PM The only reason the auction 'caused' the price to fall was mainly because we were in a bear market and finishing the bubble cycle. Well I'd be willing to bet that any subsequent announcement of an auction of quite a number of Bitcoins is going to affect the price badly. Not that much, but still... I mean it does mean an increased supply which is never good for the price. Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: Hazir on March 04, 2015, 02:49:18 PM 1. If it's a well known name, stepping up and telling "I won the auction and I will keep the coins because Bitcoin will have a bright future" will increase the confidence, the number of buyers and the price. I feel that the scenario will be dictated by whoever wins this auction. It is natural and normal and if we will have buyer with only fast profit on mind bitcoin price may lower in the process. We shall see... nothing is certain here.2. If it's somebody rather dumb that got the coins at a very discounted price will dump them all and will have a minimal profit. The market will go to new minimum and everybody loses. 3. This is what I actually expect to happen: the buyer will slowly sell some of the coins. The effect on the price will be unnoticeable (actually these days there's a chance for a rise of the price) and everybody wins on long term. Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: Shiver on March 04, 2015, 03:54:03 PM I doubt very much that someone with enough cash to buy 50,000 coins is going to be in the slightest bit interested in what market manipulators on exchanges are trying to do. They'll likely be buying for collateral for some business venture or other, with a much longer term and larger goals in mind.
Anyhow, even if that were the case, that they want to dump coin that they acquired below market, would you trust an exchange with $10-15 million of yours -and- try to slide it into the market without it making a negative splash? I know I wouldn't. Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: uki on March 04, 2015, 04:13:34 PM I don't think the coins bought on the auction will hit the market any time soon. it is great opportunity acquire a bit of coins (two weeks worth of mining) at discounted prices. Thus, I wouldn't expect much impact of that auction on the price, if any.
Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: Xiaoxiao on March 04, 2015, 09:15:14 PM Yeah, looks like it won't effect the price at all. And if it is bought for higher than market, it will be very bullish to prices.
Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: polynesia on March 05, 2015, 12:15:30 AM Yeah, looks like it won't effect the price at all. And if it is bought for higher than market, it will be very bullish to prices. Definitely. The removal of uncertainty associated with the auctions will be driver of Bitcoin's price. Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: tss on March 05, 2015, 05:48:03 AM unlikely to have any impact unless the purchase price is somehow leaked and the market will gravitate towards that number. usually these auctions winners dont dump the coins on the market after the auction.
Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: NUFCrichard on March 05, 2015, 01:14:21 PM unlikely to have any impact unless the purchase price is somehow leaked and the market will gravitate towards that number. usually these auctions winners dont dump the coins on the market after the auction. I don't think the price is the most important thing, the number of bids and who the buyer is, is more important in my opinion.If Bill Gates buys in it is better for bitcoin than a nobody buying in a higher price. Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: calme on March 05, 2015, 01:28:08 PM Well I heard it was Taylor Swift buying at this auction.
Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: Bralex on March 05, 2015, 01:31:10 PM Has this auction happened yet?
We have seen a drop but a very small one considering so all is looking good at the moment. unlikely to have any impact unless the purchase price is somehow leaked and the market will gravitate towards that number. usually these auctions winners dont dump the coins on the market after the auction. This is true these guys are usually in it for the long run, hoarders of the sort.. Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: funtotry on March 05, 2015, 01:33:55 PM Probably decrease the price, the government will sell the coins at lower than market value because they want to sell them fast. With this volume of coins being undervalued it could have some negative effects on the price.
Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: calme on March 05, 2015, 01:37:49 PM Probably decrease the price, the government will sell the coins at lower than market value because they want to sell them fast. With this volume of coins being undervalued it could have some negative effects on the price. The bidders aren't financially retarded, though. They didn't get rich by being idiots. They know that if they were to buy 50k coins from exchanges all at once, they would run up the price and have to pay more for the 50k coins. So, they put in their bids accordingly, knowing that the other bidders are also aware of that fact. In other words, easily paying a higher price than what is listed on exchanges.Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: billyjoeallen on March 05, 2015, 01:44:41 PM If a smart bidder wins the auction, he could sell w/o depressing the price at all if he buys one btc on margin for every coin he sells.
Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: galbros on March 05, 2015, 11:23:20 PM While I normally expect this to hurt the price, it looks like it went pretty well overall:
http://www.coindesk.com/third-usms-bitcoin-auction-bidder-interest/ With the recent good news and price uptick, finally a little cause for optimism in bitcoin land! Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: tabnloz on March 06, 2015, 07:04:33 AM This is your answer: Some manipulators are buying up the price to force bidders to bid at a higher price at 05/03/2015 for the 50k bitcoins of the US MARSHALS auction. They will dump the market to hell with all bitcoins they recently bought before 09/03/2015 (the deadline winner bidders have to pay US MARSHALS to get their 50k coins), the market price will crash very hard to sub $200, winner bidders will then be forced to sell with those manipulators and the crash will become even harder to test sub $100. Those manipulators will short alone with this crash to gain a huge profit, that's how this pump and dump is going to end, you have been warned to not follow this fake recover! this time will be worse than $300 fake pump of coinbase scam news scheme! ergh. not you again faaaallling. Title: Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin? Post by: gkv9 on March 07, 2015, 12:57:37 PM Guys, any news on the auction?
Haven't heard any news except that the auction actually held... |