How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin?

[Xiaoxiao]

Under what circumstances will it increase the price, if any?  And under what circumstances will it decrease the price, if any?  Will it effect the price at all?  Let me hear your thoughts.

[Sindelar1938]

Think the actual impact may be low. However if there is a sense that there were fewer quality bidders than in previous auctions, the price may temporarily sag

[Silly Money]

Re: How will the US Gov't auction effect the price of bitcoin?

Wait and see  .

Under what circumstances will it increase the price, if any?  And under what circumstances will it decrease the price, if any?  Will it effect the price at all?  Let me hear your thoughts.

It will only decrease the price if whoever buys them dumps them all but this is probably unlikely unless he gets them very cheap. They'll likely be bought to hold or save for investing into something else. I cannot see the price rising because of this, though.

[Q7]

The winner to the auction probably managed to buy at a discounted price, lower that the market spot price. If he decides to dumped everything to the open market then it will negatively affect bitcoin price. But somehow I don't think they will do that sort of stuff. With the future of bitcoin in mind, holding their stash and wait for the right time would be the most logical thing to do for now

[NeuroticFish]

1. If it's a well known name, stepping up and telling "I won the auction and I will keep the coins because Bitcoin will have a bright future" will increase the confidence, the number of buyers and the price.

2. If it's somebody rather dumb that got the coins at a very discounted price will dump them all and will have a minimal profit. The market will go to new minimum and everybody loses.

3. This is what I actually expect to happen: the buyer will slowly sell some of the coins. The effect on the price will be unnoticeable (actually these days there's a chance for a rise of the price) and everybody wins on long term.

[Silly Money]

The winner to the auction probably managed to buy at a discounted price, lower that the market spot price. If he decides to dumped everything to the open market then it will negatively affect bitcoin price. But somehow I don't think they will do that sort of stuff. With the future of bitcoin in mind, holding their stash and wait for the right time would be the most logical thing to do for now

I don't think these sorts of bidders are looking to make a little profit on a quick sale. They'll likely be able to see the future potential in bitcoin and buying them for an investment or buying them to use or set up their own bitcoin-releated business.

[finlon]

Well in the past, these bids have actually caused the price of bitcoin to fall. However these bidders don't buy bitcoins to sell them immediately in the market, so they should not be affecting the price by much.

[Amph]

what is the amount we are referring to? if it's something small it won't affect the price in any way, either way i think the price will keeps rising this time, they will not dump those coins

the wave is toward the pump

[Omikifuse]

the auction is preventing the prices to rise further.

Expect a big pump after auction is gone

[biggus dickus]

the auction is preventing the prices to rise further.

Expect a big pump after auction is gone

It depends who win and what they do with their coins. If there are not many bidders and someone gets them dirt cheap they might dump to make a quick buck. If Tim Draper wins them all and holds then the price might not crash. He only won one small lot the last time though.

[finlon]

the auction is preventing the prices to rise further.

Expect a big pump after auction is gone

It depends who win and what they do with their coins. If there are not many bidders and someone gets them dirt cheap they might dump to make a quick buck. If Tim Draper wins them all and holds then the price might not crash. He only won one small lot the last time though.

Well ,I doubt anyone who buys them will be dumping them, as the price will drop and he will lose money selling them. People who usually take part in these bids do so, to not buy that amount from exchanges, as buying will take the price up and they will be paying a large amount to buy the coins.

[ajareselde]

what is the amount we are referring to? if it's something small it won't affect the price in any way, either way i think the price will keeps rising this time, they will not dump those coins

the wave is toward the pump

We are referring to 50 000 BTC , about two weeks of total block rewards, doesnt strike me as a huge impact on price.
If im not mistaken , they will then have another ~44 000 BTC left for sale, asuming they control all seized coins.
There are many scenarios on how the price may be affected, i find it most obvious that the price will pump (like it did), and then after march 5th, slowly correct back to ~250$ range.

Heres some info on the sale: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2015/02/18/u-s-announces-third-bitcoin-auction/?_r=0

cheers

[Kipsy89]

I don't think it's going to affect the price a lot, man. Unless maybe they're reporting that whole batches didn't sell or someone reliable spreads rumours about them going for less than 80% of the spot price maybe...

[HarmonLi]

Buy the rumor, sell the news... In this case the announcement of the auction has caused the price to budge down quite a bit, but every auction we've had so far hasn't done anything other than maybe push the price up a bit.

[chriswen]

The only reason the auction 'caused' the price to fall was mainly because we were in a bear market and finishing the bubble cycle.

[HarmonLi]

The only reason the auction 'caused' the price to fall was mainly because we were in a bear market and finishing the bubble cycle.

Well I'd be willing to bet that any subsequent announcement of an auction of quite a number of Bitcoins is going to affect the price badly. Not that much, but still... I mean it does mean an increased supply which is never good for the price.

[Hazir]

1. If it's a well known name, stepping up and telling "I won the auction and I will keep the coins because Bitcoin will have a bright future" will increase the confidence, the number of buyers and the price.

2. If it's somebody rather dumb that got the coins at a very discounted price will dump them all and will have a minimal profit. The market will go to new minimum and everybody loses.

3. This is what I actually expect to happen: the buyer will slowly sell some of the coins. The effect on the price will be unnoticeable (actually these days there's a chance for a rise of the price) and everybody wins on long term.

I feel that the scenario will be dictated by whoever wins this auction. It is natural and normal and if we will have buyer with only fast profit on mind bitcoin price may lower in the process. We shall see... nothing is certain here.

[Shiver]

I doubt very much that someone with enough cash to buy 50,000 coins is going to be in the slightest bit interested in what market manipulators on exchanges are trying to do.  They'll likely be buying for collateral for some business venture or other, with a much longer term and larger goals in mind.

Anyhow, even if that were the case, that they want to dump coin that they acquired below market, would you trust an exchange with $10-15 million of yours -and- try to slide it into the market without it making a negative splash?  I know I wouldn't.

[uki]

I don't think the coins bought on the auction will hit the market any time soon. it is great opportunity acquire a bit of coins (two weeks worth of mining) at discounted prices. Thus, I wouldn't expect much impact of that auction on the price, if any.

[Xiaoxiao]

Yeah, looks like it won't effect the price at all. And if it is bought for higher than market, it will be very bullish to prices.