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Title: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 04:11:05 PM Bulls, you have it, we roughly doubled since we had a stable price for a few months now. I can follow the argument that the halving of the block reward would double the price.
We are there now, explain to me, why should we go further up? No arguments about market irrationality, bubbles and so on, just pure fundamental base price. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: SkRRJyTC on August 05, 2012, 04:31:29 PM Because more people want to buy bitcoins than want to sell bitcoins.
Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: ineededausername on August 05, 2012, 04:33:30 PM Bulls, you have it, we roughly doubled since we had a stable price for a few months now. I can follow the argument that the halving of the block reward would double the price. We are there now, explain to me, why should we go further up? No arguments about market irrationality, bubbles and so on, just pure fundamental base price. Fundamentals don't mean much in the Bitcoin market. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 04:38:39 PM Because more people want to buy bitcoins than want to sell bitcoins. Give me some data which suggests there are in fact significantly more people into BTC than when we were at 5, about double of that. I can't find it. I'd say, it's just the same people willing to pay more because they think BTC will be worth more next year. Bulls, you have it, we roughly doubled since we had a stable price for a few months now. I can follow the argument that the halving of the block reward would double the price. We are there now, explain to me, why should we go further up? No arguments about market irrationality, bubbles and so on, just pure fundamental base price. Fundamentals don't mean much in the Bitcoin market. moot point, but again no talk about bubbles. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: Serge on August 05, 2012, 04:43:51 PM Market isn't behaving like last year where a sell-off caused a chain reaction, for that to happen now it needs something by magnitude more drastic than a simple dump of a dozen or few thousand BTCs.
More people learn about bitcoin every day, it was even mentioned momentarily on congressional comity hearing about money in the US. People know that besides sitting on bitcoins they can invest them and make more bitcoins however risky that may be. It drove significant portion of available to exchanges coins away during $5 few month of stability, so there are less inventory available for trading. Is there any reason for bitcoin price to decrease? I can't find one Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 04:49:10 PM Is there any reason for bitcoin price to decrease? Because I honestly don't see it Only if we already are in bubble territory, otherwise no. Stability or slow growth, hell yeah. I guess it will depend on whenever the expectations are met in 2013. Give me some data which suggests there are in fact significantly more people into BTC than when we were at 5, about double of that. Probably meaningless (already existing bitcoiners trying out a new wallet, multiple wallets for same person, etc.), but: http://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users I've seen that, as you suggested it doesn't mean much because of above issues. And at the same time the amount of full nodes has been decreasing over the same period. So much that even if you add mywallet accounts the amount of total wallets has been decreasing. There was something about electrum client if that doesn't show up as a client, but I think it should show up at least as a connected client. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: SkRRJyTC on August 05, 2012, 04:52:37 PM Because more people want to buy bitcoins than want to sell bitcoins. Give me some data which suggests there are in fact significantly more people into BTC than when we were at 5, about double of that. I can't find it.I'd say, it's just the same people willing to pay more because they think BTC will be worth more next year. Suggestive data point number 1 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=83209.0 Suggestive data point number 2 is the price itself Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 04:55:31 PM Because more people want to buy bitcoins than want to sell bitcoins. Give me some data which suggests there are in fact significantly more people into BTC than when we were at 5, about double of that. I can't find it.I'd say, it's just the same people willing to pay more because they think BTC will be worth more next year. Suggestive data point number 1 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=83209.0 Suggestive data point number 2 is the price itself 1.) That doesn't suggest more people. just better services. How is that different that any other bitcoin project? 2.) Again, no bubbles. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: SkRRJyTC on August 05, 2012, 04:59:01 PM Because more people want to buy bitcoins than want to sell bitcoins. Give me some data which suggests there are in fact significantly more people into BTC than when we were at 5, about double of that. I can't find it.I'd say, it's just the same people willing to pay more because they think BTC will be worth more next year. Suggestive data point number 1 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=83209.0 Suggestive data point number 2 is the price itself 1.) That doesn't suggest more people. just better services. How is that different that any other bitcoin project? 2.) Again, no bubbles. My point is that it is clearly much easier for more people to get $ into and out of BTC than it has ever been. So easy in fact that it is the simplest explanation of the price rise. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 05:01:33 PM So the same people pay more for bitcoins because they think more other people will come who are willing to pay that price?
Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: SkRRJyTC on August 05, 2012, 05:05:00 PM So the same people pay more for bitcoins because they think more other people will come who are willing to pay that price? Yes... AND my mom, aunt, and numerous friends have also bought in because they only have to hand cash over to a cashier... and not the old dwolla mtgox bank account verification bullshit... Making it more accessible brings in more new people. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: Serge on August 05, 2012, 05:07:27 PM Is there any reason for bitcoin price to decrease? Because I honestly don't see it Only if we already are in bubble territory, otherwise no. Stability or slow growth, hell yeah. I guess it will depend on whenever the expectations are met in 2013. We're borderline close to a bubble where in my opinion its forming purely depends on media hype. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 05:16:48 PM So the same people pay more for bitcoins because they think more other people will come who are willing to pay that price? Yes... AND my mom, aunt, and numerous friends have also bought in because they only have to hand cash over to a cashier... and not the old dwolla mtgox bank account verification bullshit... Making it more accessible brings in more new people. Ever sent cash to mtgox via IBAN? I have and I can't see the difference. Also your mum and your aunt aren't a representative sample for overall growth. Is there any reason for bitcoin price to decrease? Because I honestly don't see it Only if we already are in bubble territory, otherwise no. Stability or slow growth, hell yeah. I guess it will depend on whenever the expectations are met in 2013. We're borderline close to a bubble where in my opinion its forming purely depends on media hype. my thought exactly. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: SkRRJyTC on August 05, 2012, 06:46:04 PM So the same people pay more for bitcoins because they think more other people will come who are willing to pay that price? Yes... AND my mom, aunt, and numerous friends have also bought in because they only have to hand cash over to a cashier... and not the old dwolla mtgox bank account verification bullshit... Making it more accessible brings in more new people. Ever sent cash to mtgox via IBAN? I have and I can't see the difference. Also your mum and your aunt aren't a representative sample for overall growth. Is there any reason for bitcoin price to decrease? Because I honestly don't see it Only if we already are in bubble territory, otherwise no. Stability or slow growth, hell yeah. I guess it will depend on whenever the expectations are met in 2013. We're borderline close to a bubble where in my opinion its forming purely depends on media hype. my thought exactly. IDK what IBAN is... nether does my mom... Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: Kupsi on August 05, 2012, 06:47:22 PM Bitcoins are being used more than ever:
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address= (http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=) http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address= (http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=) http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address= (http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=) Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 06:55:35 PM @Kupsi, you ever played satoshidice?
I'm not going to get in an argument about blockchain statistics with you, if you want to believe they have representative information do that, but don't bother somebody else with it. I suggest you read up on them, there is plenty of information in the wiki and the forum. @SkRRJyTC, you don't know what a International Bank Account Number is? Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: Kupsi on August 05, 2012, 06:58:58 PM @Kupsi, you ever played satoshidice? Nope, because I don't like to gamble if I don't have an edge.I'm not going to get in an argument about blockchain statistics with you, if you believe they have representative information do that, but don't bother somebody else with it. I suggest you read up on them, there is plenty of information in the wiki and the forum. But the first chart, Number of transactions excluding popular addresses, exclude the SatoshiDice transactions. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: SkRRJyTC on August 05, 2012, 07:04:32 PM @SkRRJyTC, you don't know what a International Bank Account Number is? No sorry. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 07:09:59 PM @Kupsi, you ever played satoshidice? Nope, because I don't like to gamble if I don't have an edge.I'm not going to get in an argument about blockchain statistics with you, if you believe they have representative information do that, but don't bother somebody else with it. I suggest you read up on them, there is plenty of information in the wiki and the forum. But the first chart, Number of transactions excluding popular addresses, exclude the SatoshiDice transactions. First transactions involve two parties. Second those charts are so easy to manipulate it is best not to consider them as representative to judge economical development. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: Kupsi on August 05, 2012, 07:12:57 PM First transactions involve two parties. So?Second those charts are so easy to manipulate it is best not to consider them as representative to judge economical development. How do you manipulate bitcoin days destroyd?Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 07:14:54 PM Send coins to a new wallet. Again please read up on that issue.
It may be possible to use the total transaction fees as a representative figure some day when BTC is large enough. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: Kupsi on August 05, 2012, 07:17:25 PM Send coins to a new wallet. Again please read up on that issue. That don't increase bitcoin days destroyd. You can send 1 BTC 1,000,000 times a day and it's still 1 bitcoin day destroyd.Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: FreeMoney on August 05, 2012, 07:18:12 PM How long have you been here? We've done a lot more than double during the 50BTC reward period.
Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 07:19:51 PM Send coins to a new wallet. Again please read up on that issue. That don't increase bitcoin days destroyd. You can send 1 BTC 1,000,000 times a day and it's still 1 bitcoin day destroyd.Do it with more coins. How long have you been here? We've done a lot more than double during the 50BTC reward period. I was referring to the last stable period. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: Kupsi on August 05, 2012, 07:26:46 PM Do it with more coins. That doesn't help in the long run. I think you should read up on this :DTitle: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 07:30:09 PM Do it with more coins. That doesn't help in the long run. I think you should read up on this :DIt does matter now. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: FreeMoney on August 05, 2012, 07:32:40 PM Send coins to a new wallet. Again please read up on that issue. That don't increase bitcoin days destroyd. You can send 1 BTC 1,000,000 times a day and it's still 1 bitcoin day destroyd.Do it with more coins. How long have you been here? We've done a lot more than double during the 50BTC reward period. I was referring to the last stable period. My point is just that no one knows when the pressure of the decreasing reward will have it's effect. It's been known about since the very beginning and in fact the decreasing reward (synonymous with limited number ever issued) is a main reason why anyone holds coins so to a large extent it is baked in since the beginning. If there are many 'unthinking' users who just buy what they need before they go shopping then we'll see a change because of them after the reward halves because they'll just keep buying the same dollar amount into a more limited supply. So I can't really tell anything useful. I'm just saying that the two sort of effects are 1. Since the beginning. 2. Starting at the halving. And I've seen no reason to specially consider some arbitrary period in the middle. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: Kupsi on August 05, 2012, 07:33:39 PM Do it with more coins. That doesn't help in the long run. I think you should read up on this :DIt does matter now. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 07:37:50 PM Kupsi compare cumulative and non-cumulative versions, and then please stop posting here.
My point is just that no one knows when the pressure of the decreasing reward will have it's effect. It's been known about since the very beginning and in fact the decreasing reward (synonymous with limited number ever issued) is a main reason why anyone holds coins so to a large extent it is baked in since the beginning. If there are many 'unthinking' users who just buy what they need before they go shopping then we'll see a change because of them after the reward halves because they'll just keep buying the same dollar amount into a more limited supply. So I can't really tell anything useful. I'm just saying that the two sort of effects are 1. Since the beginning. 2. Starting at the halving. And I've seen no reason to specially consider some arbitrary period in the middle. Of course that is the case. I've been telling people that the price is more representative for all block reward adjustments already factored in. People insist on the opposite, hence this thread. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: FreeMoney on August 05, 2012, 07:51:21 PM Kupsi compare cumulative and non-cumulative versions, and then please stop posting here. My point is just that no one knows when the pressure of the decreasing reward will have it's effect. It's been known about since the very beginning and in fact the decreasing reward (synonymous with limited number ever issued) is a main reason why anyone holds coins so to a large extent it is baked in since the beginning. If there are many 'unthinking' users who just buy what they need before they go shopping then we'll see a change because of them after the reward halves because they'll just keep buying the same dollar amount into a more limited supply. So I can't really tell anything useful. I'm just saying that the two sort of effects are 1. Since the beginning. 2. Starting at the halving. And I've seen no reason to specially consider some arbitrary period in the middle. Of course that is the case. I've been telling people that the price is more representative for all block reward adjustments already factored in. People insist on the opposite, hence this thread. Ah ok. Like I said I do think there is an element of it that will have an effect only after the drop. And different traders theories will cause them to make extreme moves at various times shortly before and after the drop, but I think the only periods with -real- (in some sense) effects are Always and After The Drop. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: Dargo on August 05, 2012, 10:33:16 PM Since the OP demands that we give "fundamental" reasons why the price should go any higher, it seems fair to ask the OP to give "fundamental" reasons why BTC was fairly valued at $5 independently of the reward drop. The only reason given is that price was stable around for $5 for a while, which is a point about price action, not a point about fundamentals.
Another way to put my point is this: maybe price will go higher from here because it was already undervalued at $5 independently of the reward drop. The fact that it was stable for a while at $5 does not show that it was fairly valued at that price on a fundamental basis, or that it would have stayed at that price without the reward drop. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: finkleshnorts on August 05, 2012, 10:49:08 PM We are there now, explain to me, why should we go further up? we shouldn't. I've turned bear. Quote No arguments about market irrationality, bubbles and so on, just pure fundamental base price. market is market, irrational or otherwise. Market price is the fundamental base price. There is no magical price underlying bitcoin. I'm not sure what you are demanding here. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: smoothie on August 05, 2012, 10:54:55 PM Bulls, you have it, we roughly doubled since we had a stable price for a few months now. I can follow the argument that the halving of the block reward would double the price. We are there now, explain to me, why should we go further up? No arguments about market irrationality, bubbles and so on, just pure fundamental base price. Why does it matter why it went up or down? It's just speculation. Look it up in the dictionary. Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: aq on August 05, 2012, 10:56:08 PM Its about the inflow of fiat into Bitcoin. pirate was able to counter this for a few months, but in the last 2 month the inflow is too high for him to constantly keep the price at $5. So we ended up around $10. If the inflow stays as high as it was, we will see even higher prices in the months to come.
Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: Kupsi on August 05, 2012, 11:01:06 PM Kupsi compare cumulative and non-cumulative versions, and then please stop posting here. I can stop posting, but you are wrong :)Title: Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. Post by: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 11:12:13 PM Bulls, you have it, we roughly doubled since we had a stable price for a few months now. I can follow the argument that the halving of the block reward would double the price. We are there now, explain to me, why should we go further up? No arguments about market irrationality, bubbles and so on, just pure fundamental base price. Why does it matter why it went up or down? It's just speculation. Look it up in the dictionary. LOL |