Bitcoin Forum

Hello again, Lucky Bit (http://luckyb.it/?nbLsn4) lovers! It's your dedicated community manager, stingleword, here with another game and a fresh pot of bitcoin to give away! I've been authorized to hand out 1BTC and I'm going to split it up to to two prizes. Remember the Millionth Bet Prediction game? Well, this is going to be something like that. Here's how it works:

• This promotion will run for two weeks only starting Monday, March 16, 00:00 UTC.
• Each week, the prize will start at 0.5BTC.
• All bet money received will be added to the prize.
• To win, you must guess how many bets will be placed during the week.
• The week starts at 00:00:00 UTC on Monday and ends at 23:59:59 on Sunday.
• The entry period opens for bets at 00:00:00 UTC on Monday and closes at 23:00:00 on Sunday.
• To place a bet, send 0.005BTC to the game address. Use a compatible wallet.
• Post your guess and the TXID of your bet here and await confirmation!
• The winner will be the player that guesses closest to the actual number of bets played during the week.
• If two people tied for closest, the person that entered earlier wins.


Limitations
• Lucky Bit administration and I cannot enter.
• Only one entry per week per Bitcoin Talk account.
• You must use a compatible wallet and send the entire 0.005BTC in a single transaction.
• Your post must be within the entry period and must include your transaction ID to be accepted.
• Your bet transaction must either be confirmed or high priority before the entry period ends. Don't skimp the fee.
• Blatant abuse of this promotion may result in its early termination and the prize not being awarded.
• By playing, you reserve the right to mock me mercilessly if/when I make an administrative mistake.

FAQ
Can I influence the bet count by playing on Lucky Bit after I bet here?
Yes, of course. That's half the fun.
If my guess gets passed early, can I bet again?
Nope. One bet per week per account.
How do you know where to send the prize?
I determine your address in the same manner Lucky Bit does when you send a bet to it.
What's a "compatible wallet"? What happens if I don't use one?
A compatible wallet is one where you control the private keys. Known examples of compatible wallets are blockchain.info, Mycelium, and Electrum. An incompatible wallet is one where a third party controls the keys, or a service that functions as a wallet in addition to some other service. Examples include exchanges such as Coinbase or Bitstamp, off-chain games such as PrimeDice or Betcoin, or shared wallets such as Xapo. If you use an incompatible wallet, your prize will become the property of your wallet's provider!
Why is there an entry period and a week?
Because the entry period closes an hour before the week ends.
I sent a small/large/wrong amount, can I get a refund?
No. That money is prize money now.
I didn't send enough to bet, can I send the difference to make my bet count?
No. Send the entire amount in one transaction.
I sent too much, can that still count as my bet?
Yes.
Can I get a refund on the difference?
No. That money is prize money now.
Does bets played mean total bets on Lucky Bit, or just valid ones?
Just valid ones.
Dude, you suck!
I bet you won't say that if you win.

Second week bets
geforcelover - 43599- 2ececdd9b80a161193f4b7726714c6d2b23ad5ca2e1b45cd5dd1d6793d2fdd23
Gisado - 48484 - 15c68ec45f337185ced427730dc36f1cf68cc9aaae285afab864ee100d75ffc0
aubert - 32462 - 006d1d1dd7975b75d535857a47d479a18aff70a1e68aae3e435a2ba3aa4856a7
cazkooo - 32000 - b6025e96407170b7b92dd772d03158f696cee20f11b5d56d7e71ef3eaed32c13
amiryaqot - 31800 - a7f59738decb46ba17e9855d8158b9cd1937033706c42367d17b2e65f80877f9
Havelivi - 32300 - 552d07d66889950a804189a5d2cf4cbca1baf46c84cdc9de99d2ba26ca4e9bc7
starswper - 33000 - 522c532182064081bc2bb5cee7042556f4a7e98f0288b424bb228480c8db9fe9
trafficolaa - 33850 - 6763913211a2edd46be7859a56d4fd12868be6a2f571d54435899db58b92c059
crytoboost - 34000 - dc046ee02351fdf940c1f93159574958c030fae4c13f96e181cc0f8f3cee6a5f
ndnhc - 35500 - af71ea6857127898b22be2601c14eded11ccbe402d37e56519c7767379045a88
newcripto - 34200 - 19cf33830406e070fcbf645c14ebf7136b58593e85184cad17ddca7cef09ade3
juperos - 34300 - c73d42d524dc2aa5ff4b9135566c38f45cfa11f5d0098d17b2db36fc3bd8b19f
tradoz - 35000 - e8105dfa9a905169bd09cde1a2c7de4b6433449d3e6e14021b9074b20ceb7950
fulgdenea - 34500 - ea1b978dcd1fa7a0e031d56aaf83f370fd52a7d7bbddece9b5640f2ad5f78ad6
yahoo62278 - 34501 - 485686b7a24a344b7a8f752db1d1d32fcb537634601afe6c61492580e0af28ee
Trevon - 34816 - f958f4adfea018de926f4d65e692b47d3c55e7bc6f63eeee4b3a7844c18a0bd7
arallmuus - 33939 - a87fd1903e54c9a9af58adf14bbf4150f2ed57f932ef596ee1b39c51e4efaaf1
kolloh - 33849 - d5ed3ff06ad4f2a7cdc10f8dedc8c4fa08fa98abccd905a9a7038057b00d3463

First week bets
ndnhc - 47500 - e5652956a5c246d23bb4a501c9880d0b5062a85c5d9db5679928e79d052b7a66
onewiseguy - 47756 - e628ebc1f0d8fbd7aa28cb45791d5db5e9c5622feb42614583f10d15dc8c13fc
BiTJack - 51345 - 3e6a32fc2092dcd3d5c1328b11445ebd4a4d2268d0dda6222e5bf860123ff148
Watoshi-Dimobuto - 50010 - 1402a24e886e0c63f060a5f7375e9669209ae87967769fe2d265bb7e8dcceb57
starswper - 41234 - c6a6439e4e9f5d4fe6cd2d5ff9a39776f2c6cb1b84427b7a4def1aa3be1bc0e6
newcripto - 48000 - 02b1f227b5e512c491016cbaabde5f5784709efd7b41c7535a9b1a93004c65e2
amiryaqot - 49000 - 5ca92ccb4a5ede9978834a874682932b64bd746cae73daef71a54935b7f113fb
trafficolaa - 46000 - 991a23320fcbeb28c04d85d3e58a69cb9339d17282959f34ca6a7cef7a8ff75e
juperos - 48300 - e3a1e49c8d8925a9b23904def807ce816fca8f3307f7ee7374ac6e832f00006c
dinda22 - 48246 - c7f6f590394c7e8ee4a69aded551297d73e845b2f50a6919262f4ed51bb06bda
melody82 - 48236 - b295fe8bf40a271c7787272f948ff412e463328e797f926faea1b17d35aa27c5
DaMama - 48277 - e44bf2d70457a3f1ba2bc1689981b24554ccc4f8986065b8443c1bba5dd2a488
Trevon - 48573 - 06f83a212e3cfbc6e609f6cfc5c327c1c8f2dcbb07773742069fa8337ac49bc6
PendiCoin88 - 48600 - e90c6a5031a4a8933e01e5e2ee7625a925aad92a9f417e4199608dcc83645966
beber456 - 48279 - 8bc8a4ec65be07400c98c8f5846b3ad8b8fbb5386e88b02257614a2bddcc545e
Baro - 47900 - f37ce7c2dbdf6872b3a8adcfc27edec8afdd9bed35b1a44d3018c10b5a85dacf
arallmuus - 48850 - 09fe724d5ead49abdd3fc8df5c977f0293744b22fb0ebe2e530e6e2021d47981
kolloh - 49600 - 89623632cffd2bb517b7cb4768e6ca4d8a1822307394e0b3f06ca6ca90d47b51

This spot reserved for me..

Reserved!
damn interesting contest. just can't wait for monday ...

Reserved!

next nice idea!
i love Lucky Bit :))

Interesting.. will bet at injury time..haha  ;D

Game on!
You might want to wait to guess. There's a whole week ahead and a lot can happen!

Fun fact! Tuesday saw a lot of heavy activity during the evening, netting the site a total of 7436 bets in one day.

Something to think about while you weigh your guesses. Cheers!

Wow! that makes me think my prediction will be 10k+ bets :P

It's showtime!

Just under twelve hours until entries for this contest are closed! It's time to do whatever it is that you feel you need to do before you get involved - the clock is no longer your friend.

It would be a real travesty to give away this half a bitcoin to the only guy that guesses, so let's do this!

so we leave a post here saying how many total bets we think the site will have by monday? as in tomorrow?
and we send 0.005 btc to the address listed here? and if we are closest we win?
so if i bet x amount of bets at march 22 23:00 forum time im guessing how many bets i think your site will have at 0:00 march 23rd? an hour later?

Please read the entire OP, it answers all your questions.

ok i read but i dont quite understand..
so if i bet today, before monday then im guessing how many bets until next sunday (next week)?

No, you're betting on all of this week. The winner will be announced shortly after 00:00 Monday.

really good idea :) maybe i turn in

So this is not started yet, right?

Today is Sunday, March 22, and the forum time is currently 15:37. That means you have just under seven and a half hours to enter for the first week's prize, which will be awarded shortly after 00:00 Monday. There are no entries yet because people are wisely waiting until as close to the closing time as possible, so their guess can account for the most recent information.

OKay just to make everything clear for every one and my self.

at the moment of writing this post
1114760
Bets played is that for just one day?
 Today is March 22, are we betting for the whole week. From the 23rd-29th of March and Winner gets announcement Monday The 30th.

The number of bets displayed on the site is the total site history (since October 2013). Your guess should be the number of valid bets from 03/16 to 03/22 inclusive (or as close as possible). For reference, over 7000 bets were played on 03/17:


So you might want to be looking at the 20k-60k range. There are tools available to browse the Lucky Bit history (http://luckyb.it/browse) or directly query the Lucky Bit API (http://luckybit-api-docs.readthedocs.org/) for more information about recent bets; how you approach this game is up to you.

https://blockchain.info/tx/e5652956a5c246d23bb4a501c9880d0b5062a85c5d9db5679928e79d052b7a66

My bet: 47500 bets.

https://blockchain.info/tx-index/e628ebc1f0d8fbd7aa28cb45791d5db5e9c5622feb42614583f10d15dc8c13fc

My Bet: 47756 Bets

Thanks :) Highest day was the 19th with 11702 Bets:)

figured it out.

Entered.

https://blockchain.info/tx/3e6a32fc2092dcd3d5c1328b11445ebd4a4d2268d0dda6222e5bf860123ff148

My Prediction: 51345 Bets.

Entered.

50,010

1402a24e886e0c63f060a5f7375e9669209ae87967769fe2d265bb7e8dcceb57

Entered.

https://blockchain.info/ro/tx/c6a6439e4e9f5d4fe6cd2d5ff9a39776f2c6cb1b84427b7a4def1aa3be1bc0e6

41234


Edit: I guess it's :   c6a6439e4e9f5d4fe6cd2d5ff9a39776f2c6cb1b84427b7a4def1aa3be1bc0e6

Entered.

48000

https://blockchain.info/tx/02b1f227b5e512c491016cbaabde5f5784709efd7b41c7535a9b1a93004c65e2

This bet isn't high priority! You'll be entered once it confirms (if it confirms before 23:00 UTC).

Entered.

Entered.

Entered.

https://blockchain.info/tx/e3a1e49c8d8925a9b23904def807ce816fca8f3307f7ee7374ac6e832f00006c

my guess 48300

Entered.

You have less than an hour to place your guesses!
The first week's entry period closes soon!

https://blockchain.info/tx/c7f6f590394c7e8ee4a69aded551297d73e845b2f50a6919262f4ed51bb06bda

my guess 48246

Entered.

https://blockchain.info/tx/b295fe8bf40a271c7787272f948ff412e463328e797f926faea1b17d35aa27c5

my guess : 48232

Didn't I say something about blatant abuse? These entries are invalid.

8a8864525e18073df5bf85ed5d8a57f73d5ae2b5ed8688a9749abd9aafc05c12 has 2 outputs
> c7f6f590394c7e8ee4a69aded551297d73e845b2f50a6919262f4ed51bb06bda which is dinda22's entry
> 2b3b233e519f11cfa2a7fe3c84deb8553f1b22a6858c072321c9194130080ac3 which has 2 outputs
>> b295fe8bf40a271c7787272f948ff412e463328e797f926faea1b17d35aa27c5 and an unspent change

lol im ask to him for loan :/

e44bf2d70457a3f1ba2bc1689981b24554ccc4f8986065b8443c1bba5dd2a488

I am guessing 48277

https://blockchain.info/tx/06f83a212e3cfbc6e609f6cfc5c327c1c8f2dcbb07773742069fa8337ac49bc6

Bet: 48573

https://blockchain.info/tx/e90c6a5031a4a8933e01e5e2ee7625a925aad92a9f417e4199608dcc83645966

48600

8bc8a4ec65be07400c98c8f5846b3ad8b8fbb5386e88b02257614a2bddcc545e

48279

https://blockchain.info/tx/f37ce7c2dbdf6872b3a8adcfc27edec8afdd9bed35b1a44d3018c10b5a85dacf

47900

https://blockchain.info/tx/09fe724d5ead49abdd3fc8df5c977f0293744b22fb0ebe2e530e6e2021d47981

my guess is 48850

Bet: 49600
Tx: https://blockchain.info/tx/89623632cffd2bb517b7cb4768e6ca4d8a1822307394e0b3f06ca6ca90d47b51

https://blockchain.info/tx-index/48833979c3cf96520db69efaca927cdb6608b7a53c9031fb5fde3e97977663f2

Bet: 48200

Summary
Size    521 (bytes)
Received Time    2015-03-22 22:56:43
Estimated Confirmation Time    Very Soon (High Priority)

edit This guess was altered to 48279, since 48277 was already selected.


Entered. That's all, folks! The pot is 0.5901BTC!

This post is too late. You can enter next week's game with this transaction ID though.

I know I couldn't post fast enough for wait time. which sucks. but I payed at least 3 mins before.

but thanks will use this for next weeks game :0

Better Luck next time buddy :) looks like you would of won too.

sorry changed  just after saw 277 was already picked  my bad . i dont if its important or not  np. dat was a funny game GL aLL !!

Okay, there's a second transaction that's eligible to be used for next week's game. It is
cff196cd16cf11e53a5e892e30c51aa95101573a632ba9ac58ba357e9fd961f3

No guess was associated with this send, so the money will remain in the pool for the sender to use next week.

The results are in!

This week saw a grand total of 48956 bets.

Our winner is..... amiryaqot who guessed 49000 bets, missing the mark by a scant 44 bets! Nice!


3a9343455dda9bc21341cea46961316a1c20bc555fa240db86bb423dd091d94f

The second week has already started! Game on!

whether there is a new regulation? to close 2 days before the prediction of the winner announced?

I agree. 1 hour is not very convenient. At least 1 to 3 days.

Fun Fact!

Thursday, March 26 saw a total of 7989 bets played in one day. Not a record, but still impressive!

Other recent impressive numbers I found:
1. 11702 bets on March 19
2. 9146 bets on March 20

woaa woaaa woaaa congratulation mate, nice guest! and what a very luck, you got 0.5 bunty!
next lottery maybe im in. just great contest  ;)

Spoiler alert!

I am going to release daily statistics for all fourteen days after the contest is over. You threw off my groove, ndnhc..  ;)
Don't worry, I haven't played all my cards. Everyone knows that I love surprises.

OK my prediction for upcoming Week is .. 89555 :)

trx id : https://blockchain.info/tx/2ececdd9b80a161193f4b7726714c6d2b23ad5ca2e1b45cd5dd1d6793d2fdd23

Our first entry for tomorrow's results! Entered. That's a lot of bets, I wonder if it's a good guess? (I haven't looked at the numbers yet)

edit Hey, just so you're clear: you're guessing on only the number of bets during week 2. Did you mean to guess 40599 (89555 - 48956) instead?

nope 89555

Can we get the numbers for the week so far?  That would be nice to have.

1. http://luckyb.it/browse
2. Enter the date and hit Search
3. Voila! You got the numbers!

Before the last hour, when the bet closes, add up everything for the 7 days, and add the number of bets you think will happen in the next final hour. (Take average Total/(6*24+23) and add something to it, since it is likely to get more bets during the time than average)

Thank you  I will post the numbers here for every one to make it fair... :)

Og thanks i will do the calculation later from pc.

Close, but no banana. The Bet Browser also shows invalid bets such as sends below the minimum, which aren't counted toward the final results.

It is a good way to start though!

STingleword the number i predicted is not good ? can you tell me why because the above 3 steps i dont get it . also i just predict that eight nine thousand five hundread and fifty five bets will be played during this week (89555).

TXID: 15c68ec45f337185ced427730dc36f1cf68cc9aaae285afab864ee100d75ffc0

Bet: 48484

Second round lets go, Hope I get close this time.

Good Luck to all players. :)

Less 1 to 3% of the same to account for those bets. ;)

Entered. Great vanity tag, aubert.

Ok quoting . Can i select 43599 ?

Alright. I'm not a completely draconian dickhead. This is a special case, though; guess-changing is prohibited for a reason; that reason simply doesn't apply in this case.

My lucky number is 32000 !

https://blockchain.info/tx/b6025e96407170b7b92dd772d03158f696cee20f11b5d56d7e71ef3eaed32c13

Entered.

Going for the double victory! Entered.

Entered.

https://blockchain.info/ro/tx/522c532182064081bc2bb5cee7042556f4a7e98f0288b424bb228480c8db9fe9

33000

Entered.

35,500

https://blockchain.info/tx/af71ea6857127898b22be2601c14eded11ccbe402d37e56519c7767379045a88

Entered.

https://blockchain.info/tx/c73d42d524dc2aa5ff4b9135566c38f45cfa11f5d0098d17b2db36fc3bd8b19f

34300

Entered.

.. And here's one I've been expecting. One source funded three bets:

eabae97e8be8c785047dbe7c390e92ade82318038ce35bd25428eb4eca7a888c
 > e8105dfa9a905169bd09cde1a2c7de4b6433449d3e6e14021b9074b20ceb7950 (tradoz)
 > 84cd938fcacdcc48af1e989d24f2ae2d1a1dd6088d2eea225027049e55d00e48
 > > a7f59738decb46ba17e9855d8158b9cd1937033706c42367d17b2e65f80877f9 (amiryaqot)
 > > 1b11a4321bec8190a37afa2789dace12b9b7ae485e7ec67e36d8975e21eff3d0
 > > > 19cf33830406e070fcbf645c14ebf7136b58593e85184cad17ddca7cef09ade3 (newcripto)

I disqualified two people last week for this. Now I have to disqualify 3 more, including last week's winner. This is why we can't have nice things.

Really, folks. I understand you're all eager to enter but there is no excuse. You've had plenty of time to get your own money together, so saying this is some sort of loan doesn't change anything. I honestly cannot express how disappointed I am in this development.

First point - this forces me to assume that 777coin makes a habit of recycling addresses after withdrawal. I find this suspect.

Second point - the transactions are minutes apart, from the source coin to the user address to my game. There is every reason to believe that these three sends were coordinated.

None of it matters, though, because you know what?

I'm sick of doing it.

You're all back in. I don't care if you're cheating or not.

I spend enough time tracking cheating in the signature campaign. If you want to throw this game by loading the bet address, be my guest. It simply is not worth the effort. I will seek another method for cheat prevention in my future promotions because this simply does not work.

Feel free to invoke the mocking for mismanagement clause.


Entered.

https://blockchain.info/tx/485686b7a24a344b7a8f752db1d1d32fcb537634601afe6c61492580e0af28ee

34501 good luck players.

Cut-throat gameplay! Entered.

Just a few minutes left to get your bets placed! Hurry up!

https://blockchain.info/tx/f958f4adfea018de926f4d65e692b47d3c55e7bc6f63eeee4b3a7844c18a0bd7

34816

Entered.

https://blockchain.info/tx/a87fd1903e54c9a9af58adf14bbf4150f2ed57f932ef596ee1b39c51e4efaaf1

33939

Bet: 33849
Tx: https://blockchain.info/tx/d5ed3ff06ad4f2a7cdc10f8dedc8c4fa08fa98abccd905a9a7038057b00d3463

Entered - and that's it! We are closed for bets!

The results are in!
Before we begin, please stick around for a bit of "overtime"!

Let's start with a breakdown of each day's bets!

M 16	4937
Tu 17	7436
W 18	4940
Th 19	11693
F 20	9141
Sa 21	5771
Su 22	5038
Subtotal	48956
M 23	7276
Tu 24	2905
W 25	3718
Th 26	7989
F 27	3962
Sa 28	3106
Su 29	4943
Subtotal	33899

... which makes our winner arallmuus, whose guess of 33939 missed the mark by just 40 bets!

Congratulations!
43e4984a72cedb4780fe86db5ad696b35243970eca8baf5cd96913510fd4595b

I'd like to keep this thread open to suggestions for improvement, and also an opportunity to post the source code I used to determine the results. If you have something to contribute, please do! I'm open to ideas and the promotions are community driven, so fire away.

Congrats I missed it damn it.

This code is built with the Lucky Bit Bet Browser API wrapper for Java (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=815560). Some whitespace has been removed. I ran this tool for each day to get the individual results, then added them to get the week's totals.

Thankyou luckybit for holding this wonderful competition and stingleword for managing this competition, I have received the prize of the competition, thankyou very much ! looking forward for another competition in the future

something that i think would make this contest more interesting is run the tie to predict a little differently. make it a 2 week contest. 1 week is open to make bets, then the next week people will have to wait and see if their prediction is a winner.

letting people have all the way up til 1 hour before contest ends takes all the fun out of the game. gives players time to pump the bets in during that 1 hour window to get their prediction closer to being a winner. im sure thats why you liked the idea of end time but as you saw during this 2nd week it was hardly pumped at all. LB was for the most part dead the last hour of the competition.

also another suggestion would be maybe have lb match the total of buyins for the prize. make the entry fee .01. we get 20 entrants thats .2btc in the pool and the lb match makes it a .4btc prize. still nice and its entirely possible if its ran as i mentioned above that we might get 50-60 users joining the contest. who knows, but its worth a shot

This is a unfaire competition... people who predict last win... so is an unfaire advantage for people what wait last to stole the prize...

I predicted 33000 with 8 hours before and was close... he predict with 3 minutes earlier than the limit and win. This game is not faire and I see people cheating.... In my country was 2 AM when the limit close so imposible for me to came and predict like they.


My predict: 33000 ( predicted 8 hours earlier )
He's predict 33939 ( predicted 3 minutes earlier )

Bets: 33939


PS: Why say " ... which makes our winner arallmuus, whose guess of 33939 missed the mark by just 40 bets! " when " guess " exactly the number

How is this unfair?  Because he waited 3 mins before the game ended and got closer than you?  I don't think you read the game rules.


no one is cheating no one cares if its 2 am in your country at the time of the end game. I am pretty sure you are not the only that had to stay up to win .5 btc how do you know it wasn't 4 am his/her time.


no whinnying  please :)

I agree that the 1 hour waiting period is small.
Make it 3 days and I will call that fair.
.
And I also will not be online at 00:00 GMT and the game is fair to those who makes the bet last. Which isn't very good.

I would like for 3 days instead of 1 hour.. or I would rather not waste my time. Note that this is supposed to be a prediction game..

https://blockchain.info/address/1PvHjguFuvegFPXEJMtByCa1wAWN7BvGeM

43243

"Cyaman" here guys ;)  ::)

Normally I'd support this sentiment but in this case, I asked for the whining. I want to hear it!


This game is over.

This was more fair and trasparent if the waiting period was at least 1 day to see who really guess well and win. next time he should do at least 1 day if not 3 days to satify all the participants.

Last chance to get your comments in - thread locks in 2 days.

I hear your comments about a longer period of uncertainty and will take that into account in the future. Anything else?

The game has been fun so far and should not be changed. I mean how would it get changed?  I think the big issue is The time difference,