Bitcoin Forum

Winklevoss Twins Says, In 10 Years Cash Will Be Obsolete

http://bitforum.info/t/winklevoss-twins-says-in-10-years-cash-will-be-obsolete/546

For me, its really hard to believe that bitcoin could replace cash, not because bitcoin cannot do it, but because bitcoin now is having a hard time breaking into the mainstream. I don't know what's their basis about they said.

Maybe if they said 25 years, maybe Ill believe them.

What we have to remember is the long distance we have come in the short number of years.
We need to build the platform and services, make it easier for the average person to use and secure ... and that is all before we can expect "mainstream adoption" ...

It is certainly aggressive but in todays age things move quicker.

You're already starting to see some signs of this happening, with Apple Pay, Paypal, Venmo, Snapcash, and Facebook Messenger.  The message that they're saying isn't far off.  10 years is really really aggressive, but with the advent of NFC on smart phones and biometric technology, I sure wouldn't bet against them.

I'm pretty sure the manufacturers of 8 tracks, vinyl records, VCR's, VHS tapes and Beta Max tapes, cassette tapes, floppy disks, zip drives, palm pilots, beepers and pagers, blackberries, soon to be CD's and DVD's never thought they'd go out of business either....

I can see this happening since digital money and mobile technology has now become so popular.  The 2 trends support eachother and physcial cash sucks, everyone agrees on that.

Even though there isn't anything bad about such statements, they are obsolete.
Andreas was right. One shouldn't try predict more than 2 years in the future, and even then you have a 75% of getting it wrong (was some short of a joke). Instead of talking, they should rush their own ETF and let's see where that takes us.

Cash is already dead. Consider that most of the spending, receiving, and storing you currently do is electronic. Very little is transacted in cash anymore.  The choice is not whether your future money will be electronic, it's about which money you will use.

There are a lot of things that are hard to believe, for starts, Bitcoin being worth 1000 USD. If back in 2010 anyone said this you would get called clinically insane.
10 years from now it's a lot of time. Things change fast these days. But yes, cash being replaced is a big, big thing. Winklevoss have balls to make such wild predictions because when the time passes and nothing happens they'll get shit.

As much as I like technology and electronic cash, bitcoin included, I think there's still a place for fiat cash.

- Children learning to save by taking physical coins and putting them in a piggy bank.
- People who just needs a way to pay, and forever reason cannot or willnot use electronical gadgets.
- EMP-attacks. What now - nobody has the means to pay for anything? If a country goes all electronic cash, what if a foreign country decides to EMP-blast the entire country - nobody can access their electronic devices anymore. Havoc withour war?
- Relying on you phone to make a payment is bad, as the phone can be stolen, it can be lost, it can be broken, or it can be decharged.
- Relying on having a network connection to make payments is bad, as when the network goes down, there's sometimes no way to pay.

I've experienced cases when electricity and network goes out, and it's not pretty. People are close to paralyzed as to what to do. Of course you can have backup solutions for electricity and network, but everyone will not have that. Also, in the event of the large scale EMP-attack, even the backup-solutions (unless protected properly), will be blown out. As long as you have fiat cash and street vendors accept it, you can get your eggs and breads.

And believe it or not, in some remote places, road tax is paid, simply by drivers putting coins into a metal box with a slot. The metal box has no power requirements, hardly no maintenance requirements, and needs to electronic equipment to function.

And not to mention those people who really are technologically challenged. Give them a fiat note, and they understand what they're looking at, but once you need to give them a smart phone, with all the added bells and whistles, not only will they have a hard time understanding how to use it, to protect themselves, but the funds can even vanish while they sleep by someone hacking them remotely. Of course there's potential for them to learn and evolve, but everybody is not interested in that. Some people are only interested in going to work, have their pay, then buy groceries locally and that's it.

Also cash brings a sense of security, maybe you will never use it, but as long as you have 1000 dollars in cash available, you know that in the event of some crisis, you will manage for a little while. If the power goes out for a couple of days, you can still buy stuff, whereas if no cards and mobile phones can be used, those people are out of luck.

An added security feature is that nobody can remotely confiscate your cash, police officers in the US confiscating cash on the highways from random drivers is another story.. But if you have 1000 dollars on your pocket, that's what you have, and even if you use 100 of them in some suspicious shop, the remaining 900 will not be frozen "pending investigation".

You could argue that you should control your coins yourself, but many people are lazy and keep them with centralized services, and then we're not much further than using traditional banks.

As much as electronic money is great, there's 7 billion people on earth, everyone with their unique spending patterns and use cases. Many people are not even aware the internet exists.. For many many years to come, there will still be communities were network access is not the norm, and I don't see abolishment of cash as the ideal, but it playing a smaller role in the world economy is much more realistic.

I also see some politicians and electronic cash advocates claim that tracking all purchases will prevent money laundering, prevent terrorist financing and in short create the perfect society.

This will never happen. Criminals will always find a way, no matter what, and to kill that argument completely, look at the large financial institutions of our time. With the strict regulations they've still been able to participate largely in criminal schemes. This will not change.

I think we're seeing a shift towards larger usage of electronic money, but physical cash still has it's place. It need not be fiat money, it could be "paper wallets", but then the trouble would be to verify the value of the bills, as funds could already be swiped when the bill is delivered..

There's also the element of control, would not any government just love to control everything the citizens do? Now they could make elaborate advanced systems to track everything. Isn't it great, from the government point of view?

Bitcoin is great in the way that it circumvents all the artificial barriers that the established system has raised.

Well the Winklevoss twins will need to really pick up the pace to get that result
But it might become even less relevant in some countries but still needed in others.

I wonder if they even actually believe it or are they just hyping up their interests? I don't think it does them any good making these sorts of ridiculously exaggerated claims though.


Those are just payment processors or apps that allow you to send fiat. I'm sure paper cash might become obsolete over the next decade or two but I don't think bitcoin will replace it.

Cryptowatch.com you are a party popper  ;D

I think you have some good examples. But perhaps we have turned a corner when we have to think up examples of where cash is still the best choice. I like cash, but it accounts for a tiny fraction of the money I spend.

I agree, however there's also the old saying "do not put all your eggs in the same basket". If we look at the US, there are frequent episodes of really bad weather, during such outages, people still need to trade, so even if cash is only a fraction of the total money used, it should not be removed entirely imo. Of course I'm nitpicking, but you won't really have the average Joe building a faraday cage and having power generators in their garden. :p

Here's an interesting article about EMP-attacks, Solar Storms and protective measures. The point is that IF it happens, the consequences can be quite devastating. As usual, nobody cares about these issues until they actually have happened, and perhaps they won't ever happen..

http://www.futurescience.com/emp/emp-protection.html

I'll use cash until either no one accepts it anymore, or I die. If anything, I'll use it for nostalgia. I like cash.

It doesn't matter how off their prediction is, as long as it brings attention to bitcoin, it's a good thing, for them and for us.

Brilliant. This line definitely deserves quoting.

This is my post of the day. Seriously, the best summary of why bitcoin is not exactly supreme currency of the future. As it has a lot of flaws. Well done.
This is the reason for standard paper money are here to stay.

Everyone in the future will have the right to issue his own money and that means the cash aka fiat money will die (with the actual economy system). I think Winklevoss brothers have right when they say : 'Cash will be killed' .

I have an "if everything goes to hell" bag.  It contains some basics - MRE's, water filtration stuff, fishing hooks and line, matches (in waterproof container), candles, fish net, some protective clothing, field guide to edible/poisonous plants and wilderness survival (printed on paper, in waterproof bag), first aid including snakebite kit, crowbar for clearing rubble/breaking out of rubble, toolkit, replacement bits for things likely to be damaged by certain kinds of disasters or disabled by people's mistaken responses to disasters, radio, hand-crank recharger ....  and, oh yeah, some cash.  

I hope to spend the remainder of my life without needing to grab that bag in a real emergency, but ...  well, it would be kind of dumb not to have one.

I think there will be a role for it. But I use bitcoin 100% for online purchases. I use my bank card or wire transfers and such for 80%-90% of my other purchases. That leaves a few paper dollars for random things. I would tell you what the last thing I paid cash for was, but I honestly don't remember. I think I paid cash a few weeks ago for Starbucks. I guess that was it. That make a few dollars out of maybe $3000 paid out in the last month. A negligible amount. I spend FAR more bitcoin than cash.

This website doesn't work, it just shows a blank white page.

I'd say that there'd always be a form of currency like "cash in hand" that would facilitate face to face transactions that leave no record of the transaction save in the memories of the participants. Even the privacy that could be realized with crypto will not entirely remove the want for an exchange of goods/services for a tangible object with accepted value(i.e. gold, cash, food). I feel that the black market, despite  SilkRoad and other darknet sites, will continue to move largely in this way.
I find it a source of unending irony when bankers/governments cry foul on BTC and crypto for being a haven for black market trade and terrorism when it's painfully obvious that it is USD, which is by far the biggest currency used by criminals and terrorists. You want something illegal? Best have some USD handy, it'll get you whatever you want. My two satoshi worth, if even that...

For people who don't want to eliminate fiat currency entirely, let your thoughts be known in your desire to protect fiat. Tell your government that you don't want them to only allow BTC and that some fiat should be allowed.

Well to be honest I believe that in 10 years physical cash will become obsolete in developed countries all together and we will be using all different sorts of debit cards, credit cards, gift cards, mobile payments etc.

With that being said if bitcoin replaced fiat currency in the next 20 years that'd be amazing. But I highly doubt bitcoin would replace fiat within the next 10 years even if it was super successful.

20 years from now hopefully some will necro this thread and quote me :)

soon there will be bitcoin satellite, im sure that hardware wallet will soon have ability to connect with it just like a gps and give us 24/7 coverage to do bussiness with btc even without internet or eletricity 

Yes, it is great news, but from what I could see it was very costly, so those going for it, is not in short of money..


Here's some interesting cash facts:

-- http://www.fleur-de-coin.com/trivials/united-states-3

A couple facts that were rather amusing:

I find it impossible to believe bitcoin would ever replace cash, yes some form of electric money will, but bitcoin, well even most this forums users don't actually use bitcoin.

Lets be honest most bitcoiners are in it to make more cash.

Im tired of this twins, they talk much but didn't do much actually.
Anyways, more news its probably good thing for bitcoin itself :|

despite not being a fan, they'll do alot in bringing btc to wallstreet investor types, just the wheel turns slow with red tap etc hardly their fault though, and much of the btc make a quick buck community is impatient.

Revolution? That sounds progressively but I would look at it at different way. I expect cash to be still around at that time but people would be less exchanging all the paper currency. I think online transaction would be taking over everything, bitcoin will be there as well and used more often and that's it. But I don't think cash will be totally dead by then.

Well, they do at least have this site:
http://winkdex.com/

And they're working on this:

Why The Winklevoss Twins' New Bitcoin ETF Matters  (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/041114/why-winklevoss-twins-new-bitcoin-etf-matters.asp)

The Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust, currently moving towards regulatory approval, could be approved by the end of 2014 and will be a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), with each share representing an amount of bitcoin held by the Trust. Currently, such an investment vehicle is only available to wealthy investors, through funds like the Bitcoin Investment Trust. The Winklevoss ETF will allow people with a brokerage account to invest in Bitcoin without having to worry about the challenges of buying, storing, and safekeeping bitcoin.

So, at least to me it seems like they're doing something..

gotta have an armageddon bag :) i'd suggest some physical silver and gold as barter items in addition to the physical fiat (in case of global economic collapse fiat may be worthless) ... silver is super cheap today vs gold and in a post apocalyptic world shiny coin/bar to barter vs shiny coin/bar to barter i'm guessing silver will do just fine for such a circumstance ... also ... gun beats knife ...

Most people are just struggling to make it through the day or week, never mind an armageddon. An armageddon would be an escape for them.

yeah yknow i personally am on the fence whether i'd like to experience such a thing in my lifetime ... on the one hand , likely reset of equality for mankind what with a presumed death of 99%+ of the population / destruction of all electronic finance systems ... so ... good ... kindof ... in terms of general equality in that we'd all be back to living in the 4th world hunter gatherer land ... assuming i'd survive of course ... plus i like hiking ... on the other hand i like my house i own , and my hybrid , and my iphone , even if i'm not a millionaire/billionaire ... status quo for most is probably preferable to total societal breakdown ... though it would be exciting ... that's for sure ...

Teach teh kids at schools, and make bitcoin fun for them,  create bitcoin arcade stores, things like this will help bitcoin

also how come now contributor in the community taught how to put bitcoin in games such as just-dice?  Why is no one teaching devs?

If you google a little bit, you'll find plenty of projects aiming to teach devs.

What about importing peoples private keys/addresses? Bitcoin could be traded on paper wallets or maybe a better and foolproof physical medium to hold bitcoins would be invented.

Technology is always hard to predict.
Look at PayPal. I just looked it up, they were founded 1998. Look at their success now.
Look at facebook. Even elderly people are using that. Founded in 2004.

10 years is just a huge timeframe, when you put it in this perspective.
I think, there just has to be the right event in the right moment and half the world would use Bitcoin on a daily basis 2 years later.
I have no idea what this event is, I don't think, it is this ETF from the Winlevos twins.

Still, I don't think, cash will become obsolete. Fax machines e.g. didn't become obsolete. We still have one in our company.

Cash, gold and gems never going to be obsolete. Those are the only truly anonymous and easy to use methods for money transfer :).

I think  they're a bit too optimistic about that. Thing is... I believe in BTC, as well. I know they have to stand up for their commitment, sure, but replacing FIAT-cash... come on... that won't happen!

well i don't mind the fall of cash, as long as there is the fall of fiat with it  :D

bitcoin also can replace cash perfecty, since cash is used for anon and for evading taxes, many will use bitcoin instead of cash for this reason

Have you heard about the new "bitcoin martekplace" : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1000698.0 
Here more info : http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/301sqy/nasdaq_to_provide_trading_technology_for_bitcoin/


I think it is related because it will be a huge success for all the bitcoiners and it will bring a lot of money in the bitcoin eco-system (so if you want to convert bitcoin for euros, wait... ).

If someone told you 10 years ago that flip phones would be obsolete today, would you have believed them?

What if they told you 10 years ago that your personal privacy is becoming obsolete?

I dont necessarily agree with what the winklevi are saying, but its entirely within the relm of possiblity, given how fast tech moves these days.

Yeah, we aren't biologically wired to predict the future like that except a few elite, it's like Bill Gates talking about the internet back in the early 90's and people thinking he is insane.

Was it not some operator of telegraph lines who thought phones were a silly invention, nobody would need that!