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Author Topic: Winklevoss Twins Is At It Again  (Read 2993 times)
SueGiant (OP)
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March 20, 2015, 03:58:48 PM
 #1

Winklevoss Twins Says, In 10 Years Cash Will Be Obsolete

http://bitforum.info/t/winklevoss-twins-says-in-10-years-cash-will-be-obsolete/546

For me, its really hard to believe that bitcoin could replace cash, not because bitcoin cannot do it, but because bitcoin now is having a hard time breaking into the mainstream. I don't know what's their basis about they said.

Maybe if they said 25 years, maybe Ill believe them.

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The network tries to produce one block per 10 minutes. It does this by automatically adjusting how difficult it is to produce blocks.
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March 20, 2015, 04:08:41 PM
 #2

Winklevoss Twins Says, In 10 Years Cash Will Be Obsolete

http://bitforum.info/t/winklevoss-twins-says-in-10-years-cash-will-be-obsolete/546

For me, its really hard to believe that bitcoin could replace cash, not because bitcoin cannot do it, but because bitcoin now is having a hard time breaking into the mainstream. I don't know what's their basis about they said.

Maybe if they said 25 years, maybe Ill believe them.

What we have to remember is the long distance we have come in the short number of years.
We need to build the platform and services, make it easier for the average person to use and secure ... and that is all before we can expect "mainstream adoption" ...

It is certainly aggressive but in todays age things move quicker.

^ I am with STUPID!
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March 20, 2015, 04:08:57 PM
 #3

You're already starting to see some signs of this happening, with Apple Pay, Paypal, Venmo, Snapcash, and Facebook Messenger.  The message that they're saying isn't far off.  10 years is really really aggressive, but with the advent of NFC on smart phones and biometric technology, I sure wouldn't bet against them.

I'm pretty sure the manufacturers of 8 tracks, vinyl records, VCR's, VHS tapes and Beta Max tapes, cassette tapes, floppy disks, zip drives, palm pilots, beepers and pagers, blackberries, soon to be CD's and DVD's never thought they'd go out of business either....

CharityAuction
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March 20, 2015, 04:26:13 PM
 #4

Winklevoss Twins Says, In 10 Years Cash Will Be Obsolete

http://bitforum.info/t/winklevoss-twins-says-in-10-years-cash-will-be-obsolete/546

For me, its really hard to believe that bitcoin could replace cash, not because bitcoin cannot do it, but because bitcoin now is having a hard time breaking into the mainstream. I don't know what's their basis about they said.

Maybe if they said 25 years, maybe Ill believe them.



I can see this happening since digital money and mobile technology has now become so popular.  The 2 trends support eachother and physcial cash sucks, everyone agrees on that.
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March 20, 2015, 04:29:33 PM
 #5

Even though there isn't anything bad about such statements, they are obsolete.
Andreas was right. One shouldn't try predict more than 2 years in the future, and even then you have a 75% of getting it wrong (was some short of a joke). Instead of talking, they should rush their own ETF and let's see where that takes us.

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March 20, 2015, 04:31:03 PM
 #6

Cash is already dead. Consider that most of the spending, receiving, and storing you currently do is electronic. Very little is transacted in cash anymore.  The choice is not whether your future money will be electronic, it's about which money you will use.

The gospel according to Satoshi - https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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March 20, 2015, 05:13:34 PM
 #7

Winklevoss Twins Says, In 10 Years Cash Will Be Obsolete

http://bitforum.info/t/winklevoss-twins-says-in-10-years-cash-will-be-obsolete/546

For me, its really hard to believe that bitcoin could replace cash, not because bitcoin cannot do it, but because bitcoin now is having a hard time breaking into the mainstream. I don't know what's their basis about they said.

Maybe if they said 25 years, maybe Ill believe them.


There are a lot of things that are hard to believe, for starts, Bitcoin being worth 1000 USD. If back in 2010 anyone said this you would get called clinically insane.
10 years from now it's a lot of time. Things change fast these days. But yes, cash being replaced is a big, big thing. Winklevoss have balls to make such wild predictions because when the time passes and nothing happens they'll get shit.
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March 20, 2015, 05:35:39 PM
 #8

Cash is already dead. Consider that most of the spending, receiving, and storing you currently do is electronic. Very little is transacted in cash anymore.  The choice is not whether your future money will be electronic, it's about which money you will use.

As much as I like technology and electronic cash, bitcoin included, I think there's still a place for fiat cash.

- Children learning to save by taking physical coins and putting them in a piggy bank.
- People who just needs a way to pay, and forever reason cannot or willnot use electronical gadgets.
- EMP-attacks. What now - nobody has the means to pay for anything? If a country goes all electronic cash, what if a foreign country decides to EMP-blast the entire country - nobody can access their electronic devices anymore. Havoc withour war?
- Relying on you phone to make a payment is bad, as the phone can be stolen, it can be lost, it can be broken, or it can be decharged.
- Relying on having a network connection to make payments is bad, as when the network goes down, there's sometimes no way to pay.

I've experienced cases when electricity and network goes out, and it's not pretty. People are close to paralyzed as to what to do. Of course you can have backup solutions for electricity and network, but everyone will not have that. Also, in the event of the large scale EMP-attack, even the backup-solutions (unless protected properly), will be blown out. As long as you have fiat cash and street vendors accept it, you can get your eggs and breads.

And believe it or not, in some remote places, road tax is paid, simply by drivers putting coins into a metal box with a slot. The metal box has no power requirements, hardly no maintenance requirements, and needs to electronic equipment to function.

And not to mention those people who really are technologically challenged. Give them a fiat note, and they understand what they're looking at, but once you need to give them a smart phone, with all the added bells and whistles, not only will they have a hard time understanding how to use it, to protect themselves, but the funds can even vanish while they sleep by someone hacking them remotely. Of course there's potential for them to learn and evolve, but everybody is not interested in that. Some people are only interested in going to work, have their pay, then buy groceries locally and that's it.

Also cash brings a sense of security, maybe you will never use it, but as long as you have 1000 dollars in cash available, you know that in the event of some crisis, you will manage for a little while. If the power goes out for a couple of days, you can still buy stuff, whereas if no cards and mobile phones can be used, those people are out of luck.

An added security feature is that nobody can remotely confiscate your cash, police officers in the US confiscating cash on the highways from random drivers is another story.. But if you have 1000 dollars on your pocket, that's what you have, and even if you use 100 of them in some suspicious shop, the remaining 900 will not be frozen "pending investigation".

You could argue that you should control your coins yourself, but many people are lazy and keep them with centralized services, and then we're not much further than using traditional banks.

As much as electronic money is great, there's 7 billion people on earth, everyone with their unique spending patterns and use cases. Many people are not even aware the internet exists.. For many many years to come, there will still be communities were network access is not the norm, and I don't see abolishment of cash as the ideal, but it playing a smaller role in the world economy is much more realistic.

I also see some politicians and electronic cash advocates claim that tracking all purchases will prevent money laundering, prevent terrorist financing and in short create the perfect society.

This will never happen. Criminals will always find a way, no matter what, and to kill that argument completely, look at the large financial institutions of our time. With the strict regulations they've still been able to participate largely in criminal schemes. This will not change.

I think we're seeing a shift towards larger usage of electronic money, but physical cash still has it's place. It need not be fiat money, it could be "paper wallets", but then the trouble would be to verify the value of the bills, as funds could already be swiped when the bill is delivered..

There's also the element of control, would not any government just love to control everything the citizens do? Now they could make elaborate advanced systems to track everything. Isn't it great, from the government point of view?

Bitcoin is great in the way that it circumvents all the artificial barriers that the established system has raised.
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March 20, 2015, 05:37:22 PM
 #9

Well the Winklevoss twins will need to really pick up the pace to get that result
But it might become even less relevant in some countries but still needed in others.

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March 20, 2015, 05:38:44 PM
 #10

I wonder if they even actually believe it or are they just hyping up their interests? I don't think it does them any good making these sorts of ridiculously exaggerated claims though.

You're already starting to see some signs of this happening, with Apple Pay, Paypal, Venmo, Snapcash, and Facebook Messenger.  The message that they're saying isn't far off.  10 years is really really aggressive, but with the advent of NFC on smart phones and biometric technology, I sure wouldn't bet against them.

Those are just payment processors or apps that allow you to send fiat. I'm sure paper cash might become obsolete over the next decade or two but I don't think bitcoin will replace it.

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March 20, 2015, 05:41:02 PM
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Cryptowatch.com you are a party popper  Grin

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March 20, 2015, 05:59:42 PM
 #12

Cash is already dead.
...

As much as I like technology and electronic cash, bitcoin included, I think there's still a place for fiat cash.
...

I think you have some good examples. But perhaps we have turned a corner when we have to think up examples of where cash is still the best choice. I like cash, but it accounts for a tiny fraction of the money I spend.

The gospel according to Satoshi - https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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March 20, 2015, 06:07:58 PM
 #13

Cash is already dead.
...

As much as I like technology and electronic cash, bitcoin included, I think there's still a place for fiat cash.
...

I think you have some good examples. But perhaps we have turned a corner when we have to think up examples of where cash is still the best choice. I like cash, but it accounts for a tiny fraction of the money I spend.

I agree, however there's also the old saying "do not put all your eggs in the same basket". If we look at the US, there are frequent episodes of really bad weather, during such outages, people still need to trade, so even if cash is only a fraction of the total money used, it should not be removed entirely imo. Of course I'm nitpicking, but you won't really have the average Joe building a faraday cage and having power generators in their garden. :p

Here's an interesting article about EMP-attacks, Solar Storms and protective measures. The point is that IF it happens, the consequences can be quite devastating. As usual, nobody cares about these issues until they actually have happened, and perhaps they won't ever happen..

http://www.futurescience.com/emp/emp-protection.html
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March 20, 2015, 06:22:03 PM
 #14

I'll use cash until either no one accepts it anymore, or I die. If anything, I'll use it for nostalgia. I like cash.

It doesn't matter how off their prediction is, as long as it brings attention to bitcoin, it's a good thing, for them and for us.
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March 20, 2015, 07:34:54 PM
 #15

Bitcoin is great in the way that it circumvents all the artificial barriers that the established system has raised.

Brilliant. This line definitely deserves quoting.

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March 20, 2015, 08:11:55 PM
 #16

Cash is already dead. Consider that most of the spending, receiving, and storing you currently do is electronic. Very little is transacted in cash anymore.  The choice is not whether your future money will be electronic, it's about which money you will use.

As much as I like technology and electronic cash, bitcoin included, I think there's still a place for fiat cash.

-cut-

Bitcoin is great in the way that it circumvents all the artificial barriers that the established system has raised.


This is my post of the day. Seriously, the best summary of why bitcoin is not exactly supreme currency of the future. As it has a lot of flaws. Well done.
This is the reason for standard paper money are here to stay.
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March 20, 2015, 08:24:31 PM
 #17

Everyone in the future will have the right to issue his own money and that means the cash aka fiat money will die (with the actual economy system). I think Winklevoss brothers have right when they say : 'Cash will be killed' .
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March 20, 2015, 08:32:08 PM
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I have an "if everything goes to hell" bag.  It contains some basics - MRE's, water filtration stuff, fishing hooks and line, matches (in waterproof container), candles, fish net, some protective clothing, field guide to edible/poisonous plants and wilderness survival (printed on paper, in waterproof bag), first aid including snakebite kit, crowbar for clearing rubble/breaking out of rubble, toolkit, replacement bits for things likely to be damaged by certain kinds of disasters or disabled by people's mistaken responses to disasters, radio, hand-crank recharger ....  and, oh yeah, some cash.  

I hope to spend the remainder of my life without needing to grab that bag in a real emergency, but ...  well, it would be kind of dumb not to have one.
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March 20, 2015, 08:33:29 PM
 #19

Cash is already dead. Consider that most of the spending, receiving, and storing you currently do is electronic. Very little is transacted in cash anymore.  The choice is not whether your future money will be electronic, it's about which money you will use.

As much as I like technology and electronic cash, bitcoin included, I think there's still a place for fiat cash.

-cut-

Bitcoin is great in the way that it circumvents all the artificial barriers that the established system has raised.


This is my post of the day. Seriously, the best summary of why bitcoin is not exactly supreme currency of the future. As it has a lot of flaws. Well done.
This is the reason for standard paper money are here to stay.
I think there will be a role for it. But I use bitcoin 100% for online purchases. I use my bank card or wire transfers and such for 80%-90% of my other purchases. That leaves a few paper dollars for random things. I would tell you what the last thing I paid cash for was, but I honestly don't remember. I think I paid cash a few weeks ago for Starbucks. I guess that was it. That make a few dollars out of maybe $3000 paid out in the last month. A negligible amount. I spend FAR more bitcoin than cash.

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March 20, 2015, 09:30:10 PM
 #20

This website doesn't work, it just shows a blank white page.
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