Bitcoin Forum

The non-trolls, intelligent and experienced traders that understand markets, all see bitcoin still in a major bear market.  After all, fundamentally speaking, bitcoin is used mainly for speculative purposes and a few other less desirable things.

Also a question for technical traders, are we on the brink of another downward spiral? when the ema's cross for 1 day candle charts?

realistically speaking, you are trolling or just try to spread fud. especially when you state that bitcoin will go down to $66
any serious bitcoiner know that below $100 is not.going to happen.

You forgot to add $0 as a long-term goal.now, can you show us the charts that confirm the targets you mentioned?

Try not watch the current BTC value keep out the panics and hysteria.

You cant analyse bitcoin the same way you analyse some more established stocks or markets. Bitcoin is in early stages, and extremely volatile,
so the most TA wont get u far most of the time,we are dependant on news and legal issues every day, and that is how you can predict the movement most efficiently.
There is a fact that will always move bitcoin forward, and that is this very speculation, because every trader is here to make a profit, and you cant make a longterm profits by slamming the price to the ground.
While there is money to be made from bitcoin, price will ping pong, but its just a matter of year when it will have its next eruption, and we wont see these prices ever again.

cheers

I'm looking forward to this ridiculous prediction becoming wrong. Bitcoin went from 1200 to 200 saying it can't go from 230 to below 100 is ... well a lot of things.

Don't hold your breath ;)

This guy makes a valid case...

https://www.tradingview.com/v/iWXmzaeG/

Also take a look at the one day charts for every exchange... whenever the MA line cross the price plummets. For the 1 day charts, the lines have just crossed.  So I am personally preparing for a plummet some time this week.

so should i buy now or wait a bit ?  :) cause i want to get at least one of those... just in case...  ;)

market data say no to this, we are made two floors already, there is only going up, with some bad swing here and there


i would buy now yes, at best we can go sub 240(230-240, previous floor), those others numbers are out of question, and very trollish

I for one would lovea crash in BTC price to allow me to buy BTC back cheaper to pay off my KLYEMAX investors.

the $1200 price was fake. that says enough. it was never meant to last very long.
once we manage to reach $1000 slowly it will be totally different.

Didn't anyone see the CEX red candle last night?
The price flash crashed to $30 and a number of people made off like a bandit.

I wish I had placed a $30 order myself.
However I did benefit from the event. :)

Anyway, the price corrected itself back to $260.

thanks for the charts, first of all. That really helps a lot with the discussion.
What I see is that the proposed analysis is reacting pretty slowly to the price movements, meaning we would have to reverse towards $436, or again spend at least three more months to invalidate the down trend. Check the accuracy of the prediction of the last trend reversal with the uptrend in place, the trend reversal was pointed out when the price dropped from $1200 to the $400 area. So all and all, it goes in line with my expectation of sidewards movement for the rest of 2015 (meaning no upsurge), but I wouldn't expect proposed price declines. They are just targets in the analysis that has yet to prove itself.


Ps. it is also not clear to me why the first up trend rectangle was not followed by a down trend - there was no new high for more than 5 months between March and September 2013!

no, now strong on range 250-270 :)

op is right! sub $100 incoming

Lol at the fudsters scared that they sold wanting to re-enter the market at cheap ass prices. Well, during mid april regarding some solid chart predictions we will know if its time to go up or lower.

dude, did you made a new account just to say that?
get a life or something. at least go take a shower, you're stink of fud.

retest of low 200 if no bounce  :-\

It is probably going to keep bouncing as people keep wanting to sell then buy again cause it is lower, but sell cause it is lower. It is an endless loop until someone stops selling and buys or holds.

:D

yeah today price broke under 240 :(

i don't think so. It feels long but the end of the bear market is near.

It could happen, but likely only for a fraction of a second if some whale were to dump a wall. Many traders leave open bids down there just in case.

Fiat exchange rate with Bitcoin the 2015 prototype is irrelevant if you're a long term HODLer. What matters is bitcoin's inevitable exchange rate against fiat:

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/6c/7f/40/6c7f4082cf6cd330c2e02468d6108e80.jpg

Bitcoin is alive, and it is very hungry. It's a matter of when, not if.

http://news.coinometrics.com/content/images/2013/Nov/google_trends1.png

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/static/img/mempool/how-we-know-bitcoin-is-not-a-bubble/MetcalfeGraph.png

I was a loyal Bitcoiner, I'm losing faith after the crash happened in last week. It's negative in both fundamental and technical.
I might believe that price under $100 is possible.

I could see the price going down to $200 momentarily, but it looks like it has temporarily stabilized at the $250 to $290 range for the next week.

Never say never, this could easily happen.

Resistance is getting bigger with every wave. It's just a matter of *when* the downtrend really dies off. This time we've come really really close - in fact we're still fighting and if the bears get too greedy we might still turn this one around.

Probably won't go much below $0, but Bitcoin is full of surprises :)

people just need to re-gain the trust in bitcoin, the 1200--->current price is really depressing, for everyone especially who lost money on this process

seein gonly whales playing with the market isn't funny at all, they are driving the price down at the end

i promise you alot of people will go all in if its under 0  8)

Some speculation of the price going down isn't entirely untrue at this point, since Bitcoin does appear to be falling a bit. Of course, as mentioned by other users, with a currency as volatile as Bitcoin it is really hard to speculate as to what the actual price may be in the long run. My guess is that the price may go down below $200 but won't fall below $100. I am hoping for a rebound in the price sometime soon. Based on what I am seeing, it would be a good time to buy sometime this week if this keeps up.

Well, most of the exchanges might do a runner before that, or BTC might get outlawed like in Ukraine.  Might not be as obvious as it seems :-\

Bitcoin will have another bubble, the only question is what has to happen first. Clearly we are not close to a bubble kicking in and frankly I am starting to doubt the coming halving will be the catalyst most people are considering.

My prediction is that the price MUST drop so low that a shift in ownership can take place. Price needs to drop so low that long time whale holders give up and sell. At this point a whole new population of speculators will swarm in and start the next bubble.

I think the price has to drop below $100 for this to happen and probably a lot lower.

We did see 230's for a second last night.  I'm sure it was just to test the waters, but i'm more worried if it breaks into the 220's.

Bears are pretty close to kicking in the stop losses

Bitcoin in double digits? I am sure a lot of people will rush in when that happens.

That's what everyone thinks until it really happens. Only those with balls of steel or no emotion would take the plunge. The rest will follow their natural instincts and sit in their chair and squeal. Even the faithful would be second guessing themselves and that's totally understandable.

Rush is a understatement it will be a buying frenzy and would last seconds i for one have some fiat stacked by in buy orders for that very scenario, we are not going to $66 where did you get this number op? We may flash down to 180 but i doubt this even, for what reason do you think this is going to happen there is no news which would make that happen we had some bad news recently and had a little dip nothing major onwards and upwards..

Some alt with more healthy supply is maybe a better idea.

Costs of transactions are high.
https://blockchain.info/en/charts/cost-per-transaction

Network effect is not as powerful as economic aspects of efficiency in the long run.

never sell at a loss when a crash happens you dont sell... you buy, and you buy as much as you can

yeah right,If everyone did that the supply would would be gone in puff of smoke and the price would hit the moon

plenty of opportunity to top up this last year or so  ;D

There is no way you can predict prices 100% all the time. This isn’t news it almost reads as a script to get people to panic sell.

it's the reason why we will never see double digits, it would make a big increase in demand so fast that the price will return at current state

today price is already a physical barrier

Even though bitcoin price is low and xiao is a troll, there is technically nothing stopping bitcoin price from being dumped down to the $66 level. Especially if a larger holder like Draper were to dump (very unlikely, but still possible).

The real question is what do you think of the fundamentals and where do you see the future supply/demand balance being.

Heh, today's cheap coin can be tomorrow's expensive coin :P

One of the important things is - are there going to be new people like me that would like to own some newly mined btc, because if not then downtrend is inevitable since I think current owners can't or don't want to absorb all new coins and that is why the price is dropping.

impossible, if the price break $100, bitcoin is over.
so the big whales would save price before it dead

says someone who obviously loses lots of money all of the time trading.
If you think it will fall further, sell, if you don't then don't.  Each decision is independent of previous ones, easy.

This is not a rule never sell at a loss, the smartest have at times had to sell at a loss to be able to continue trading with something that is not sinking! With you mentality when a crash happens and you keep buying, what happens when the crash is to major to bounce back anywhere near where it was? If you see a crash coming sell at a loss and buy back at a later date when it has balanced out and you end up with more without risking more. The only guys that can hold all the way down are the guys who brought in early on.

I had the mentality to never sell at a loss when I got into alts, and held some until they became near worthless. I now wish I had got 50% OF my money back when I had the chance. Although bitcoin's not the same as a shit alt I now consider selling at a loss if the price crashes far enough.

I too was foolish enough to think (even as the price was dropping) that I could at least break even.  This never happened, adn ended up selling for a loss last summer.  In hindsight it was a good call becasue we've only gone down since then.

The worst thing you can do is listen to the super-bulls on here who "guarantee" that the price will go back through the roof.  Most of them probably hold very little to begin with, or have been holding since 1btc was less than $1.  They seem to think holding while suffering losses makes them superior to others, but really it only makes them look like fools.

I think we now know he was one of the holders who didn't think of selling at 1K+

Bitcoin is now under $250 threshold again... How awesome was couple weeks ago when we thought that price will pierce $300 and suddenly everything shattered. Maybe we reached 'optimal' price for bitcoins? And value around $250 will be standard bitcoin price of the future?

Thats a very good point about TA in early stage markets.  Surely these TA models are based on the mean average of all markets in history which might not be as good for early stage markets.  Even if thats not the case, how often are the early stage markets revolutionary designs like bitcoin?  TA might struggle.

At least you now no that you do not need to hold all the way to worthlessness, not saying bitcoin will go that way but if i sensed it then i would sell even if i missed the first get out and i was losing. Bitcoin is very similar to the alts it just has more adoption and more people willing to keep it propped up, could be why this dump since 1000+ has taken so long we keep getting fresh fools willing to buy where the alts don't they just get forgotten.

That is the thing we talk ourself into believing that it will break even or go to profit but that is us putting our hopes & emotions on the market and that will never work out well because the market does not care for our emotions. So there you have your own proof sometimes it is good to sell at a loss. I have done quite a few times on alts and then i ended up with profit after buying back at the bottom and holding double what i would have had if i held all the way.

So many bulls are living in the previous bubble and not looking at reality again kind of putting their emotions on the market and they believe we will be hitting the moon every 5-10dollar rise in price

https://i.imgur.com/MqZlFSH.jpg

Bitcoin should stabilize at around $100. I can see bitcoin's bottom at $20-$50 and spiking to 190-200 and then stabilizing at around $100.

What is going to happen with asics if that's the case? Will it will be profitable to produce them? Or the profit margin when selling is so big that they will just reduce the price, because I doubt asics will just become THAT more efficient over night to keep up with the price.

that scenario is unlikely, miners are not that stupid they aren't dumping so much now, they have already made roi and they electricity is very cheap, no reason to help early adopters to crash the market, thus price will not fall to that point

and if it happen, it would simply force the smallest farm to exit out of the mining game, price also is based on btc so they will cost less

The miners still hold a very minority of the coins.  The majority of coins are still held by early adopters.

Lol...  Talk about desperate...

Not that cheap though...  Hoping this would go below 200.  But support at 235 - 238 is strong with this one. 

If this support breaks, i think we will see 210-215

Does 232 count as breaking support?

yep
and 220 too

It can break easily.

Looking at the chart, I think 230 is the key support level. If it breaks through this resistance, there will be more downside coming our way. Trying to be optimistic at the moment. Currently price is holding strong at 235 but anything can still happen right now.

Someone out there is buying a lot at these levels.  Again... BTC will go sideways for a while.

People have said this about $240 also and I assumed that support to actually be even more important than $230. I believe $220 is a big support again, if we go below that... may Satoshi have mercy on us!