Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin => Mining speculation => Topic started by: philipma1957 on May 17, 2015, 07:09:48 PM



Title: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 17, 2015, 07:09:48 PM
Just opened thread.

same rules as last   picks start at block 300---- and end at block 1000.

No picks honored till block 300.

we are at block 56 for this period  this is block # 356888 18:57
we       started with                              block # 356832 10:27
 that is 8 ½ hours in x 6 = 51 blocks

so 51 = 0%    56 =  9.8%    

bitcoinwisdom has a  5% pick

I am thinking some gear has been built and this will be a big jump adjustment.

Well picks do not start  until 300 so we have 244 to go.

cakir won last week and has been paid.

Remember please wait until block 300.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. No picks yet.
Post by: notlist3d on May 17, 2015, 08:46:51 PM
Bitwisdom is like you said showing a decent positive number.  We can hope it goes down.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,805,819,553 (+4.09%)
Adjust time:    After 2015 Blocks, About 13.5 days
Hashrate(?):    360,447,056 GH/s


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. No picks yet.
Post by: akashamar on May 17, 2015, 10:19:08 PM
The current pattern of increase is similar to the one after Mar 22 2015 adjustment ... signaling another decent diff increase ... yep, it is more than obvious that new mining hw is still being deployed despite summer and stagnating BTC/USD price.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 17, 2015, 10:34:34 PM
The current pattern of increase is similar to the one after Mar 22 2015 adjustment ... signaling another decent diff increase ... yep, it is more than obvious that new mining hw is still being deployed despite summer and stagnating BTC/USD price.

well avalon has written software for a 80-120gh miner using 5 chips.   it may be very efficient and they may be doing a burn in.  wiki page has info.


here is  a quote

Looks like Canaan are coming out with their new small miner; Avalon4 Mini - 5xA3222
wiki: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Avalon4_mini
resources: http://downloads.canaan-creative.com/software/avalon4_mini/
( This includes a Chrome App )

comes from here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140539.msg11382007#msg11382007

if you go to wiki link

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Avalon4_mini

 and see this  line of code  I think the mini miner will drop to .4 watts per gh

sudo ./cgminer --avalonm-freq 275:250:200 --avalonm-voltage 6250      


the big miner at 420:390:370     volts 7625    does .55 - .57 watts

so with avalon doing something and sfards doing something  I believe we get 3-6%


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. No picks yet.
Post by: notlist3d on May 17, 2015, 11:58:41 PM
The current pattern of increase is similar to the one after Mar 22 2015 adjustment ... signaling another decent diff increase ... yep, it is more than obvious that new mining hw is still being deployed despite summer and stagnating BTC/USD price.

well avalon has written software for a 80-120gh miner using 5 chips.   it may be very efficient and they may be doing a burn in.  wiki page has info.


here is  a quote

Looks like Canaan are coming out with their new small miner; Avalon4 Mini - 5xA3222
wiki: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Avalon4_mini
resources: http://downloads.canaan-creative.com/software/avalon4_mini/
( This includes a Chrome App )

comes from here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140539.msg11382007#msg11382007

if you go to wiki link

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Avalon4_mini

 and see this  line of code  I think the mini miner will drop to .4 watts per gh

sudo ./cgminer --avalonm-freq 275:250:200 --avalonm-voltage 6250      


the big miner at 420:390:370     volts 7625    does .55 - .57 watts

so with avalon doing something and sfards doing something  I believe we get 3-6%

I think your right avalon will have underclocked the "mini" to .4x limit's.    The 4.1's do a low .5x easy.

SFards I see as a wild card.  We really don't know what they have ready to go.  They showed a dev ket that looked very nice.  I still wonder what what price will be for final product.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks open.
Post by: philipma1957 on May 18, 2015, 01:49:07 AM
blocks for the day were 170-171


https://blockchain.info/blocks/1431826989443

356747 to 356917  171 vs 144 is plus    27


have to hope for this to drop off

about 60 of them were on the last adjustment and about 111 were on this adjustment  I estimate real number as plus 15 blocks and about plus 12% on day 1.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. No picks yet.
Post by: skuser on May 18, 2015, 08:44:03 AM
This is just variance, we will finish oscilating +/- one percent in the end after 20 pages of this thread which will follow  ;D


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. No picks yet.
Post by: notlist3d on May 18, 2015, 09:00:16 AM
have to hope for this to drop off

about 60 of them were on the last adjustment and about 111 were on this adjustment  I estimate real number as plus 15 blocks and about plus 12% on day 1.

Ouch I really hope it drops aswell.  It's been quite a while since double digit change.   A 12 percent would hurt us for sure.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks open.
Post by: philipma1957 on May 18, 2015, 02:18:04 PM
This is just variance, we will finish oscilating +/- one percent in the end after 20 pages of this thread which will follow  ;D


would be nice..  no question variance has been the ruler for months but a small steady rise of just under 2% an adjustment  is the real gain since Nov 2014

a 170 block day is a killer only if 3  or 4 in a row happen .


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. No picks yet.
Post by: Mikestang on May 18, 2015, 10:12:59 PM
So far I don't think we've seen any impact from "summer" in the northern hemisphere, I expect those changes will start showing up soon.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. No picks yet.
Post by: jonnybravo0311 on May 18, 2015, 10:28:59 PM
Anybody else notice that bitcoinwisdom's difficulty page hasn't updated for over 15 hours?  How am I supposed to make a completely random guess about the change in network difficulty now??? :P


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. No picks yet.
Post by: notlist3d on May 18, 2015, 10:54:52 PM
Anybody else notice that bitcoinwisdom's difficulty page hasn't updated for over 15 hours?  How am I supposed to make a completely random guess about the change in network difficulty now??? :P

That is odd normally it is much more active then this.  I wonder if it's dying like i did when hearing a double digit number :).

On a serious note hopefully they fix it soon, as I enjoy watching it go up and down over on it.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. No picks yet.
Post by: philipma1957 on May 19, 2015, 01:17:17 AM
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   357073
Total BTC   14.177M
 
Difficulty   48807487245
Estimated   49317543267 in 1775 blks
 
Network total   383972.807 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.59 / 546 s

    (+1.04%)


https://blockchain.info/blocks/1431911769460

356918  to 357061  = 143 blocks  close to normal


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. No picks yet.
Post by: notlist3d on May 19, 2015, 01:31:33 AM
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   357073
Total BTC   14.177M
 
Difficulty   48807487245
Estimated   49317543267 in 1775 blks
 
Network total   383972.807 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.59 / 546 s

    (+1.04%)


https://blockchain.info/blocks/1431911769460

356918  to 357061  = 143 blocks  close to normal


Thank you for posting!  This looks much better then original estimates.  Guess there were some lucky pools or something.

I'm hoping to keep difficulty low all summer, don't know if I will get this luck but sure would be nice.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open.
Post by: philipma1957 on May 19, 2015, 04:52:27 AM
Okay right now https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

 is stuck at block 1893

and at a diff of (+4.79%)

The http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

has us at block 1763  and

a diff of about  (+0.57%)


https://blockchain.info/blocks

has us doing 25 blocks in tue  for the first 4hours 45 minutes    we should do  a lot more 47 so something is  going on

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

had 171 super high on the first day 5-17
then 143  about normal

  So once again we are in the -1 to +1 slot  .

I will get back with  the start time  when I wake up this morning.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. No picks yet.
Post by: zebedee on May 19, 2015, 01:31:50 PM
OK, we've had 300 blocks.  I'll take +0.26% to +0.50%.  :-*


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks OPEN!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 19, 2015, 01:56:33 PM
OK, we've had 300 blocks.  I'll take +0.26% to +0.50%.  :-*

www.bitcoinwisdom.com is down


well we just hit block 300

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   357132
Total BTC   14.178M
 
Difficulty   48807487245
Estimated   48847686985 in 1716 blks
 
Network total   320856.917 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.51 / 653 s

(+0.08%)

 
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957

+0.26% to +0.50%  zebedee  
+0.51% to +0.75%  valkir
+0.76% to +1.00%  gallery2000 note I switched to this since jonnybravo0311 had picked your pick already
+1.01% to +1.25%  jonnybravo0311 


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: valkir on May 19, 2015, 02:26:46 PM
+0.51% to + 0.75% for me!
Thanks


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: jonnybravo0311 on May 19, 2015, 02:44:52 PM
I'll take the + 1.01 to 1.25 slot please.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: gallery2000 on May 19, 2015, 03:09:23 PM
+ 1.26% - 1.50


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks OPEN!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 19, 2015, 03:20:12 PM


www.bitcoinwisdom.com is down


well we just hit block 300

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   357132
Total BTC   14.178M
 
Difficulty   48807487245
Estimated   48847686985 in 1716 blks
 
Network total   320856.917 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.51 / 653 s

(+0.08%)

 
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957

+0.26% to +0.50%  zebedee  
+0.51% to +0.75%  valkir
+0.76% to +1.00%  gallery2000 note I switched to this since jonnybravo0311 had picked your pick already
+1.01% to +1.25%  jonnybravo0311  


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 19, 2015, 03:40:15 PM
+1.26% to +1.50 please!

Thanks for running it again philipma!


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: Biodom on May 19, 2015, 03:58:01 PM
+1.51 to +1.75, please


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks OPEN!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 19, 2015, 04:56:11 PM

www.bitcoinwisdom.com is down


well we just hit block 300

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   357132
Total BTC   14.178M
 
Difficulty   48807487245
Estimated   48847686985 in 1716 blks
 
Network total   320856.917 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.51 / 653 s

(+0.08%)

 
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957

+0.26% to +0.50%  zebedee  
+0.51% to +0.75%  valkir
+0.76% to +1.00%  gallery2000 note I switched to this since jonnybravo0311 had picked your pick already
+1.01% to +1.25%  jonnybravo0311  
+1.26% to +1.50%  notlist3d
+1.51% to +1.75%  Biodom
+1.76% to +2.00% edonkey

@ notlist3d    suchmoon is still funding and deserves as much thanks as me.  But you are welcome from the both of us. ;D  


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: edonkey on May 19, 2015, 07:42:24 PM
This time my cat says +1.76% to +2.00%. Thanks!


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: Mikestang on May 19, 2015, 08:24:39 PM
I'll take -0.76% to -1.00%, thanks.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: alh on May 19, 2015, 08:31:06 PM
Anybody know why bitcoinwisdom appears to be "stuck"? My browser interacts with it just fine, but the result hasn't changed in many about a day.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,145,889,931 (+4.79%)
Adjust time:    After 1893 Blocks, About 12.7 days
Hashrate(?):    354,372,939 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.8 minutes
   
Updated:    2:25 (1.5 days ago)


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: TheAnalogKid on May 19, 2015, 09:03:55 PM
I'll jump in on this one:

-0.76 to -1 (I think is the right boundaries)



Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: Mikestang on May 19, 2015, 09:06:21 PM
I'll jump in on this one:

-0.76 to -1 (I think is the right boundaries)



I picked that already, 2 posts up.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: akashamar on May 19, 2015, 09:09:52 PM
+3.01% to +3.25%, please ... thanks!


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: akashamar on May 19, 2015, 09:13:19 PM
This will be cool ;)

http://www.coindesk.com/21-inc-confirms-plans-bitcoin-distribution/

When each TV, smartphone, dishwasher, etc. will have it's own Bitcoin miner integrated, difficulty will truly skyrocket  8)


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 19, 2015, 10:40:58 PM
This will be cool ;)

http://www.coindesk.com/21-inc-confirms-plans-bitcoin-distribution/

When each TV, smartphone, dishwasher, etc. will have it's own Bitcoin miner integrated, difficulty will truly skyrocket  8)

well many say buy and hold.

maybe it is a good idea


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 19, 2015, 11:56:42 PM
Disappointing bitwisdom is still down, has anyone heard if they are working on it?  Or what is going on with it?


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: TheAnalogKid on May 20, 2015, 12:37:14 AM
I'll jump in on this one:

-0.76 to -1 (I think is the right boundaries)



I picked that already, 2 posts up.
Bugger...

Ok, how's about -1.26 to -1.50 then.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: wpt1wpt1 on May 20, 2015, 02:11:29 AM
Ill take 5.01 to 5.25 or the nearest one to this if its taken


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks OPEN!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 20, 2015, 02:20:16 AM
www.bitcoinwisdom.com is down


well we just hit block 300

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   357132
Total BTC   14.178M
 
Difficulty   48807487245
Estimated   48847686985 in 1716 blks
 
Network total   320856.917 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.51 / 653 s

(+0.08%)

-1.26% to -1.50%   TheAnalogKid
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%    Mikestang


+0.26% to +0.50%  zebedee  
+0.51% to +0.75%  valkir
+0.76% to +1.00%  gallery2000 note I switched to this since jonnybravo0311 had picked your pick already
+1.01% to +1.25%  jonnybravo0311  
+1.26% to +1.50%  notlist3d
+1.51% to +1.75%  Biodom
+1.76% to +2.00% edonkey

+3.01% to +3.25% akashamar
+5.01% to +5.25% wpt1wpt  I assume you want + pos


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 20, 2015, 02:29:17 AM
Disappointing bitwisdom is still down, has anyone heard if they are working on it?  Or what is going on with it?

Do not have an answer.

But the ones below are all good.   we have slipped to neg -
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   357200
Total BTC   14.180M
 
Difficulty   48807487245
Estimated   48688621012 in 1648 blks
 
Network total   328552.485 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.64 / 638 s

we have slipped to (-0.24%)

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 blocks    5/16     +12      partial
143 blocks    5/17       -1
138 blocks    5/18       -6


https://blockchain.info/blocks/1432002392116

  129   blocks on 5/19    -15            357191- 356062


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 20, 2015, 02:45:49 AM
Happy to see a negative.  I hope I was wrong and it goes negative.

Price is around 232 hopefully we can get up closer to 240 again, seems like we are stuck under 240 but at lease we are over the 220 mark i guess.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: RoadStress on May 20, 2015, 02:55:37 AM
I will take: +2.76% to +3.00%

Thank you.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks OPEN!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 20, 2015, 03:27:28 AM
www.bitcoinwisdom.com is down


well we just hit block 300

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   357132
Total BTC   14.178M
 
Difficulty   48807487245
Estimated   48847686985 in 1716 blks
 
Network total   320856.917 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.51 / 653 s

(+0.08%)

-1.26% to -1.50%   TheAnalogKid
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%    Mikestang


+0.26% to +0.50%  zebedee  
+0.51% to +0.75%  valkir
+0.76% to +1.00%  gallery2000 note I switched to this since jonnybravo0311 had picked your pick already
+1.01% to +1.25%  jonnybravo0311  
+1.26% to +1.50%  notlist3d
+1.51% to +1.75%  Biodom
+1.76% to +2.00% edonkey

+2.76% to +3.00% RoadStress
+3.01% to +3.25% akashamar

+5.01% to +5.25% wpt1wpt  I assume you want + pos


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: mavericklm on May 20, 2015, 05:26:07 AM
same as last time, please!

2.01 - 2.25

thank you!


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: davejh on May 20, 2015, 07:59:27 AM
I'll take 2.51 to 2.75 this time please  :)

Many thanks for for running this!


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: SunnyIgor on May 20, 2015, 10:11:37 AM
+2.26 to 2,50 ;D


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: kenscho on May 20, 2015, 11:17:54 AM
-0.50% to -0.74%


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: tlhIlwI on May 20, 2015, 02:44:23 PM
+0.01 to +0.25 please.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks OPEN!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 20, 2015, 02:56:28 PM
www.bitcoinwisdom.com is down


well we just hit block 438  we have 1578 blocks left

for now we are using:

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   357270
Total BTC   14.182M
 
Difficulty   48807487245
Estimated   48515874446 in 1578 blks
 
Network total   303096.877 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.21 / 692 s


the  estimate is  about   (-0.597%)


I get this by:

 est diff/ diff = x -1   shift .00 = %

or

48515874446/48807487487245 = 0.99402549613378 - 1 =  -0.0059745   shift .00 for percent

and you get  -0.597%  as  a real estimate of  diff adjustment








-1.26% to -1.50%    TheAnalogKid
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%    Mikestang
-0.51% to -0.75%    kenscho
-0.26% to  -0.50%   Jamphone


+0.01% to +0.25%  tlhIwI
+0.26% to +0.50%  zebedee  
+0.51% to +0.75%  valkir
+0.76% to +1.00%  gallery2000 note I switched to this since jonnybravo0311 had picked your pick already
+1.01% to +1.25%  jonnybravo0311  
+1.26% to +1.50%  notlist3d
+1.51% to +1.75%  Biodom
+1.76% to +2.00% edonkey
+2.01% to +2.25% mavericklm
+2.26% to +2.50% SunnyIgor
+2.51% to +2.75% davejh
+2.76% to +3.00% RoadStress
+3.01% to +3.25% akashamar
+3.26% to +3.50% solstoce

+3.76% to +4.00% ezeminer

+5.01% to +5.25% wpt1wpt  


+6.26% to +6.50% Kexkey


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: Jamphone on May 20, 2015, 03:31:12 PM
-0.26 to -.50 please


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: suchmoon on May 20, 2015, 05:33:46 PM
Any idea what's happening with Bitcoinwisdom difficulty charts? Been stuck for 2 or 3 days.

Just in case there is any question about how to determine the winner if Bitcoinwisdom is down:

(new_difficulty - old_difficulty) / old_difficulty * 100

Then rounded to 2 decimal places. That would be the winning percentage. Difficulty value can be obtained from any number of sources including your QT wallet.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: solstoce on May 20, 2015, 05:41:19 PM
+3.26% to +3.5% plz


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: alh on May 20, 2015, 07:35:16 PM
We just have to hope that bitcoinwisdom is back before the next adjustment, since it was originally decreed as the decider of the outcome, right? Aside from the predictive aspects, is there any other website that captures adjustment information?


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: jonnybravo0311 on May 20, 2015, 07:51:55 PM
We just have to hope that bitcoinwisdom is back before the next adjustment, since it was originally decreed as the decider of the outcome, right? Aside from the predictive aspects, is there any other website that captures adjustment information?
Once the adjustment happens every single connected Bitcoin node on the planet has the new difficulty.  Getting the information would be exceedingly easy.  Current difficulty has been posted a number of times in the thread, so comparing old vs new and obtaining the percentage difference is trivial, I would think :).


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: suchmoon on May 20, 2015, 08:12:42 PM
Guys, literally a couple of posts above you :)

It's all good, relax.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: jonnybravo0311 on May 20, 2015, 08:17:31 PM
Guys, literally a couple of posts above you :)

It's all good, relax.
OMG... like I have time to look up a whole 2 posts to see things like that!!! :P

Kidding of course.  By the way, thanks for running the contest suchmoon.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: suchmoon on May 20, 2015, 08:22:08 PM
Guys, literally a couple of posts above you :)

It's all good, relax.
OMG... like I have time to look up a whole 2 posts to see things like that!!! :P

Kidding of course.  By the way, thanks for running the contest suchmoon.

You're welcome. Thanks to philipma1957 mostly though - he's running the show, I'm just pushing the "Send" button at the end of it.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: jonnybravo0311 on May 20, 2015, 08:30:12 PM
You're welcome. Thanks to philipma1957 mostly though - he's running the show, I'm just pushing the "Send" button at the end of it.
True... I should have written, "thank you for providing the funds that support this contest, and for pushing the 'Send' button at the end of it." ;D

Phil definitely goes way above and beyond ... between these contests, the work he's done with the ck solo club, multiple hardware reviews... definitely a very valuable member of the community.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: Mikestang on May 20, 2015, 08:34:15 PM
Guys, literally a couple of posts above you :)

It's all good, relax.
OMG... like I have time to look up a whole 2 posts to see things like that!!! :P

Kidding of course.  By the way, thanks for running the contest suchmoon.

You're welcome. Thanks to philipma1957 mostly though - he's running the show, I'm just pushing the "Send" button at the end of it.

Thank you both!  I would have almost no interest in tracking difficulty between changes if it wasn't for these threads.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: Kexkey on May 20, 2015, 08:44:50 PM
Hey there!  Been very busy lately, missing some hot threads around...

Here's my prediction for this round: +6.26% to +6.50%

Phil, you will need vacations soon!  Being so busy everywhere on bct!...

Thanks!

Kex.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 20, 2015, 09:28:58 PM
Hey there!  Been very busy lately, missing some hot threads around...

Here's my prediction for this round: +6.26% to +6.50%

Phil, you will need vacations soon!  Being so busy everywhere on bct!...

Thanks!

Kex.


yeah getting tired will need a break.  the weather is getting nice and the wife and I travel more. plus we do lots of short 1 day trips.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: ezeminer on May 20, 2015, 10:07:38 PM
Phil you need a vacation or a beer after all your partying with mining :D

Also I would like to grab +3.76-4%


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 20, 2015, 11:30:16 PM
Phil you need a vacation or a beer after all your partying with mining :D

Also I would like to grab +3.76-4%

yeah never had 49.9 coins in a wallet until yesterday.

 I think the most coins I have ever had was 20 or 23 there were worth about 400 each  but were in multiple wallets.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 21, 2015, 02:45:10 AM
Phil you need a vacation or a beer after all your partying with mining :D

Also I would like to grab +3.76-4%

yeah never had 49.9 coins in a wallet until yesterday.

 I think the most coins I have ever had was 20 or 23 there were worth about 400 each  but were in multiple wallets.

That is a lot of btc.  It was a interesting idea though.  Please let us all know how it goes on it.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks OPEN!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 21, 2015, 03:03:41 AM
www.bitcoinwisdom.com is down


well we just hit block 438  we have 1578 blocks left

for now we are using:

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   357351
Total BTC   14.184M
 
Difficulty   48807487245
Estimated   48671334764 in 1497 blks
 
Network total   384527.733 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.60 / 545 s

the  estimate is  about   (-0.278%)


I get this by:

 est diff/ diff = x -1   shift .00 = %

or

48515874446/48807487487245 = 0.99721351 - 1 =  -0.002786485   shift .00 for percent

and you get  -0.278%  as  a real estimate of  diff adjustment








-1.26% to -1.50%    TheAnalogKid
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%    Mikestang
-0.51% to -0.75%    kenscho
-0.26% to  -0.50%   Jamphone


+0.01% to +0.25%  tlhIwI
+0.26% to +0.50%  zebedee  
+0.51% to +0.75%  valkir
+0.76% to +1.00%  gallery2000 note I switched to this since jonnybravo0311 had picked your pick already
+1.01% to +1.25%  jonnybravo0311  
+1.26% to +1.50%  notlist3d
+1.51% to +1.75%  Biodom
+1.76% to +2.00% edonkey
+2.01% to +2.25% mavericklm
+2.26% to +2.50% SunnyIgor
+2.51% to +2.75% davejh
+2.76% to +3.00% RoadStress
+3.01% to +3.25% akashamar
+3.26% to +3.50% solstoce

+3.76% to +4.00% ezeminer

+5.01% to +5.25% wpt1wpt  


+6.26% to +6.50% Kexkey

blocks for the day from link below

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1432090834101



357336 - 357192 = 144 and add 1 more since  you need to count 357192 in

145 is close to even as possible.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: alh on May 21, 2015, 04:57:53 AM
bitcoinwisdom is now back UP!

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,213,024,131 (+2.88%)
Adjust time:    After 1485 Blocks, About 10.3 days
Hashrate(?):    339,634,452 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.8 minutes
   
Updated:    23:50 (8.0 minutes ago)


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 21, 2015, 05:06:24 AM
bitcoinwisdom is now back UP!

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,213,024,131 (+2.88%)
Adjust time:    After 1485 Blocks, About 10.3 days
Hashrate(?):    339,634,452 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.8 minutes
   
Updated:    23:50 (8.0 minutes ago)


Thanks for posting great news it's finnaly back up!  BTC is up about 2 dollars since yesterday at 234.  If it could just continue to climb.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 21, 2015, 05:08:48 AM
bitcoinwisdom is now back UP!

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,213,024,131 (+2.88%)
Adjust time:    After 1485 Blocks, About 10.3 days
Hashrate(?):    339,634,452 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.8 minutes
   
Updated:    23:50 (8.0 minutes ago)


Thanks for posting great news it's finnaly back up!  BTC is up about 2 dollars since yesterday at 234.  If it could just continue to climb.

  @ alh thanks

@ notlist3d   that estimate is still pretty high but dropped from 4.79 to 2.88.



Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 21, 2015, 06:15:44 AM
bitcoinwisdom is now back UP!

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,213,024,131 (+2.88%)
Adjust time:    After 1485 Blocks, About 10.3 days
Hashrate(?):    339,634,452 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.8 minutes
   
Updated:    23:50 (8.0 minutes ago)


Thanks for posting great news it's finnaly back up!  BTC is up about 2 dollars since yesterday at 234.  If it could just continue to climb.

  @ alh thanks

@ notlist3d   that estimate is still pretty high but dropped from 4.79 to 2.88.



It's nice that it's dropped to almost half of that.  I'm wondering how lucky we all can get.   This summer has been much slower then I expected, could be partially to slowing down of new miners.   

The price of BTC needs to climb some still.  I hope it does but for low difficulty changes I'm not going to complain  to much.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: zubelutte on May 21, 2015, 09:58:37 AM
I want to take -0.01 % to -0.25 %
Thanks...


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 21, 2015, 01:22:56 PM
Morning with bitwisdom once again:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,628,457,609 (+3.73%)
Adjust time:    After 1425 Blocks, About 9.7 days

Price at 235 and headed up.   So price looking better.  Estimate lets hope it goes down some.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: tertius993 on May 21, 2015, 03:50:21 PM
As my usual option is gone, I shall go for +3.51 to +3.75 please.

Thanks all!


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 21, 2015, 05:11:58 PM
Morning with bitwisdom once again:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,628,457,609 (+3.73%)
Adjust time:    After 1425 Blocks, About 9.7 days

Price at 235 and headed up.   So price looking better.  Estimate lets hope it goes down some.

Slowly going down as the day goes on which is good.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,453,531,098 (+3.37%)
Adjust time:    After 1406 Blocks, About 9.6 days
Hashrate(?):    351,287,379 GH/s


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks OPEN!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 21, 2015, 07:24:27 PM
 Back up

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+2.87%)



 we have 1391 blocks left

picks will stay open to block 1000  made or about 2 ½ days










-1.26% to -1.50%    TheAnalogKid
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%    Mikestang
-0.51% to -0.75%    kenscho
-0.26% to  -0.50%   Jamphone


+0.01% to +0.25%  tlhIwI
+0.26% to +0.50%  zebedee  
+0.51% to +0.75%  valkir
+0.76% to +1.00%  gallery2000 note I switched to this since jonnybravo0311 had picked your pick already
+1.01% to +1.25%  jonnybravo0311  
+1.26% to +1.50%  notlist3d
+1.51% to +1.75%  Biodom
+1.76% to +2.00% edonkey
+2.01% to +2.25% mavericklm
+2.26% to +2.50% SunnyIgor
+2.51% to +2.75% davejh
+2.76% to +3.00% RoadStress
+3.01% to +3.25% akashamar
+3.26% to +3.50% solstoce
+3.51% to +3.75% tertius393
+3.76% to +4.00% ezeminer

+5.01% to +5.25% wpt1wpt  


+6.26% to +6.50% Kexkey



Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 21, 2015, 11:05:09 PM
Appears bitwisdom is climbing slowly:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,267,756,180 (+2.99%)
Adjust time:    After 1364 Blocks, About 9.4 days
Hashrate(?):    354,085,867 GH/s


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 21, 2015, 11:16:30 PM
https://blockchain.info/blocks

357485   at 23:05:45
357337   at 00:05:54

148 + 1 = 149 blocks    you need add the 1 since 357337 was made today.


so 149 blocks with 55 minutes left = at lease + 5 today
 


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 25, 2015, 02:25:48 PM
Okay we are up.  It is Monday the 25th  10:24 am  EST.


Picks will close at 10PM monday the 25th EST about 12 hours from now


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: EMIF on May 25, 2015, 02:38:29 PM
Okay we are up.  It is Monday the 25th  10:24 am  EST.


Picks will close at 10PM monday the 25th EST about 12 hours from now

This time , I want to get from -0.01% to -0.25% rather than 0  ;D


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks OPEN!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 25, 2015, 02:54:57 PM
 Back up



 

picks will stay open to block  10:00 PM     EST May 25th about 11 hours.










-1.26% to -1.50%    TheAnalogKid
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%    Mikestang
-0.51% to -0.75%    kenscho
-0.26% to -0.50%    Jamphone
-0.01% to -0.25%    EMIF

+0.01% to +0.25%  tlhIwI
+0.26% to +0.50%  zebedee  
+0.51% to +0.75%  valkir
+0.76% to +1.00%  gallery2000 note I switched to this since jonnybravo0311 had picked your pick already
+1.01% to +1.25%  jonnybravo0311  
+1.26% to +1.50%  notlist3d
+1.51% to +1.75%  Biodom
+1.76% to +2.00% edonkey
+2.01% to +2.25% mavericklm
+2.26% to +2.50% SunnyIgor
+2.51% to +2.75% davejh
+2.76% to +3.00% RoadStress
+3.01% to +3.25% akashamar
+3.26% to +3.50% solstoce
+3.51% to +3.75% tertius393
+3.76% to +4.00% ezeminer

+5.01% to +5.25% wpt1wpt  


+6.26% to +6.50% Kexkey



Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 25, 2015, 03:02:11 PM
Wow is it nice to be backup!  We were above 240 or day or so on price.  We dropped a little bit and are in the 238's now.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: jonnybravo0311 on May 25, 2015, 03:56:56 PM
Honestly, I'm a bit confused by the charts on bitcoinwisdom.com at this point.  The reported hash rate for the past 504 and 1008 blocks shows a very definitive down trend.  However, the 2016 block line has actually trended up.  It's completely the opposite of what should be happening to that line...


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: suchmoon on May 25, 2015, 04:05:53 PM
Honestly, I'm a bit confused by the charts on bitcoinwisdom.com at this point.  The reported hash rate for the past 504 and 1008 blocks shows a very definitive down trend.  However, the 2016 block line has actually trended up.  It's completely the opposite of what should be happening to that line...

The last 2016 blocks include that spike to ~370 PH/s that we had before the last adjustment. It will move down if the current downtrend continues, but the drop is not going to be as sharp or deep.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 25, 2015, 04:32:01 PM
Honestly, I'm a bit confused by the charts on bitcoinwisdom.com at this point.  The reported hash rate for the past 504 and 1008 blocks shows a very definitive down trend.  However, the 2016 block line has actually trended up.  It's completely the opposite of what should be happening to that line...

The last 2016 blocks include that spike to ~370 PH/s that we had before the last adjustment. It will move down if the current downtrend continues, but the drop is not going to be as sharp or deep.

here go to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
for today

https://blockchain.info/blocks

358028  23:47
357888    0:02
 
141 blocks made   a -3

grand total is -24

with 1204 made  so   1204/1228 =  0.98045 - 1 =   -0.01954   which is:

 (-1.95%)  true real time number.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(-1.36%)


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: alh on May 26, 2015, 01:30:17 AM
I'll take -1.76% ro -2.00% if picks are still open.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks OPEN!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 26, 2015, 01:45:21 AM


 

picks will stay open to block  10:00 PM     EST May 25th about ½  hours.



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.36%)


Some one going to grab one of the negatives before we close?



-1.51% to -1.75%  or -2.01% to -2.25%  have a shot  and are open





-1.76% to -2.00%    alh


-1.26% to -1.50%    TheAnalogKid
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%    Mikestang
-0.51% to -0.75%    kenscho
-0.26% to -0.50%    Jamphone
-0.01% to -0.25%    EMIF

+0.01% to +0.25%  tlhIwI
+0.26% to +0.50%  zebedee  
+0.51% to +0.75%  valkir
+0.76% to +1.00%  gallery2000 note I switched to this since jonnybravo0311 had picked your pick already
+1.01% to +1.25%  jonnybravo0311  
+1.26% to +1.50%  notlist3d
+1.51% to +1.75%  Biodom
+1.76% to +2.00% edonkey
+2.01% to +2.25% mavericklm
+2.26% to +2.50% SunnyIgor
+2.51% to +2.75% davejh
+2.76% to +3.00% RoadStress
+3.01% to +3.25% akashamar
+3.26% to +3.50% solstoce
+3.51% to +3.75% tertius393
+3.76% to +4.00% ezeminer

+5.01% to +5.25% wpt1wpt  


+6.26% to +6.50% Kexkey




About 17 minutes left.    and I see a few spots that could be winners.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.36%)


Some one going to grab one of the negatives before we close?



-1.51% to -1.75%  or -2.01% to -2.25%  have a shot


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 26, 2015, 01:59:01 AM
 current real number is -1.95%

about 2 or 3 minutes to go.


here go to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
for today

https://blockchain.info/blocks

358028  23:47
357888    0:02
 
141 blocks made   a -3

grand total is -24

with 1204 made  so   1204/1228 =  0.98045 - 1 =   -0.01954   which is:

 (-1.95%)  true real time number.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(-1.36%)



Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: judypug1956 on May 26, 2015, 02:18:35 AM
So it is 10:18 PM the 25th are we closed?


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 26, 2015, 02:20:42 AM
So it is 10:18 PM the 25th are we closed?

suchmoon provides the prize money  so he has final say.

But we did give a lot of extra time.  So I would guess it is closed.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: suchmoon on May 26, 2015, 03:42:40 AM
So it is 10:18 PM the 25th are we closed?

suchmoon provides the prize money  so he has final say.

But we did give a lot of extra time.  So I would guess it is closed.

I think let's consider it closed.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 26, 2015, 04:01:03 AM
I find it interesting were getting a negative number.  I don't think there is any new coins to attribute it to.  Price is hanging in high 230's.

I'm wondering if just luck or if summer is taking effect.  I was thinking summer we might see some old gear drop off (existing dragons,  etc).  But I'm not really sure what to expect with difficulty moving so slow. 


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 26, 2015, 04:02:51 AM
we have 801 blocks to go.  and slipping lower (-1.72%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

price is 238

 would have to say the last 4 months have been stable price wise and difficulty wise.

from jan 20 to may 25th price has been 228 to 238  with a peak near 298

and diff was 43.9 Bill on jan 20th it is now 48.8 Bill

Pretty smooth for 4 months.

I wonder what the next 4 months will bring?

@notlist not sure what I will be writing come Sept 20-25

hard to think diff will be 55.5 bill  and price 248 that week but maybe the builders of gear realize that the big boys are going to put a chip every where you can think.  If I were bitfury ,knc, bitmaintech ,avalon, sfards  and I thought 21 and quallcom  were going to sell routers all over the world with 1 watt 10gh chip in it  I might not want to build gear anymore.

  I might do exactly what is happening mine and stay stable.

100,000,000  10 gh routers             = 100 ph 
300,000,000  10 gh electric meters  = 300 ph
600,000,000  10 gh tv sets              =  600 ph



Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 26, 2015, 04:13:25 AM
we have 801 blocks to go.  and slipping lower (-1.72%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

price is 238

 would have to say the last 4 months have been stable price wise and difficulty wise.

from jan 20 to may 25th price has been 228 to 238  with a peak near 298

and diff was 43.9 Bill on jan 20th it is now 48.8 Bill

Pretty smooth for 4 months.

I wonder what the next 4 months will bring?

I'm thinking we will see new gear sometime within it.  But I could be very wrong on that.  New gear/chips has slowed down to a crawl with low btc to blame in my opinion.  I think the companies broke the cycle of new gear and are enjoying using the old gear for a little extra and slow the R/D down a little (although some could have chips or something up there sleeve, waiting for right moment to launch).

I just don't see near the hardware expansion it seemed like we were always doing.  And eventually halving will come into effect and could be scaring some off.  I'm unsure how halving will be done with existing miners.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: suchmoon on May 26, 2015, 04:37:09 AM
we have 801 blocks to go.  and slipping lower (-1.72%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

price is 238

 would have to say the last 4 months have been stable price wise and difficulty wise.

from jan 20 to may 25th price has been 228 to 238  with a peak near 298

and diff was 43.9 Bill on jan 20th it is now 48.8 Bill

Pretty smooth for 4 months.

I wonder what the next 4 months will bring?

I'm thinking we will see new gear sometime within it.  But I could be very wrong on that.  New gear/chips has slowed down to a crawl with low btc to blame in my opinion.  I think the companies broke the cycle of new gear and are enjoying using the old gear for a little extra and slow the R/D down a little (although some could have chips or something up there sleeve, waiting for right moment to launch).

I just don't see near the hardware expansion it seemed like we were always doing.  And eventually halving will come into effect and could be scaring some off.  I'm unsure how halving will be done with existing miners.

There needs to be either a significant hardware improvement (< 0.25W) before the halving or there will be a huge diff drop and/or price rise. As it stands now most hardware including the S5 would become unprofitable overnight.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 26, 2015, 07:35:41 AM
we have 801 blocks to go.  and slipping lower (-1.72%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

price is 238

 would have to say the last 4 months have been stable price wise and difficulty wise.

from jan 20 to may 25th price has been 228 to 238  with a peak near 298

and diff was 43.9 Bill on jan 20th it is now 48.8 Bill

Pretty smooth for 4 months.

I wonder what the next 4 months will bring?

I'm thinking we will see new gear sometime within it.  But I could be very wrong on that.  New gear/chips has slowed down to a crawl with low btc to blame in my opinion.  I think the companies broke the cycle of new gear and are enjoying using the old gear for a little extra and slow the R/D down a little (although some could have chips or something up there sleeve, waiting for right moment to launch).

I just don't see near the hardware expansion it seemed like we were always doing.  And eventually halving will come into effect and could be scaring some off.  I'm unsure how halving will be done with existing miners.

There needs to be either a significant hardware improvement (< 0.25W) before the halving or there will be a huge diff drop and/or price rise. As it stands now most hardware including the S5 would become unprofitable overnight.

I could also be looking to far in advance.  But I think having could be coming into play with low btc price.   

Companies can do R/D now with not rushing and spending smart as btc price is low.   And really releasing the < .25 W  if the hardware companies can save till having could allow them to transition very easily without much profit loss with new efficiency.

I think we will see a few before having, but I don't think we will see a huge push.  Which ultimately is good for all this old gear we all got much lower difficulty then most of us thought we would have for past few months.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: valkir on May 26, 2015, 11:51:37 AM
Pretty sure some companie have low w/gh device but will keep them.
Bitmain can actually right now do 0.3 with th bm1384 so I guess they just wait and slow down the RnD.
Home mining will be harder to do.
 :-\


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 26, 2015, 11:56:50 AM
Pretty sure some companie have low w/gh device but will keep them.
Bitmain can actually right now do 0.3 with th bm1384 so I guess they just wait and slow down the RnD.
Home mining will be harder to do.
 :-\

Sadly that is the trend.  The 3 month ROI is no longer that is for sure.

Morning Bitwisdom:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,460,500,339 (-0.71%)
Adjust time:    After 747 Blocks, About 5.3 days
Hashrate(?):    329,610,766 GH/s

And price hanging around 238.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: suchmoon on May 26, 2015, 03:49:20 PM
Sadly that is the trend.  The 3 month ROI is no longer that is for sure.

I don't think that's sad. ROI in 3 months would probably mean you'd have to throw the hardware away after 3 months. Now I'm sure my S3s will reach their 1-year anniversary and they have ROIed 200%+ without even including the resale value.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 26, 2015, 04:03:54 PM
Sadly that is the trend.  The 3 month ROI is no longer that is for sure.

I don't think that's sad. ROI in 3 months would probably mean you'd have to throw the hardware away after 3 months. Now I'm sure my S3s will reach their 1-year anniversary and they have ROIed 200%+ without even including the resale value.

The best time as far as ROI in 3 months was GPU's.  You could get them paid for and there was still a gaming market that kept used prices nice if you ever sold.

Yes with asic's its not a bad thing they are not being thrown away.  But I would still love to have my 3 month ROI back.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: Mikestang on May 26, 2015, 06:04:18 PM
BTC price has been fairly stable for weeks now, very interesting.

I'm about to power down some of my mining for the summer, it's getting too hot in my home office.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 26, 2015, 06:07:05 PM
Sadly that is the trend.  The 3 month ROI is no longer that is for sure.

I don't think that's sad. ROI in 3 months would probably mean you'd have to throw the hardware away after 3 months. Now I'm sure my S3s will reach their 1-year anniversary and they have ROIed 200%+ without even including the resale value.

my 3 little s-3's will mine until 2016.   I have a low cost for them 2.4 cents winter 3.2 cents summer.  only problem is max power I can burn is 900-1000 watts

they have mined since july of 2014 batch 1 units.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: TheAnalogKid on May 26, 2015, 09:01:10 PM
I speculate that part of the reason things are pretty stable is simply the fact that there is no faster tech coming about soon, and no one _has_ to replace their gear to keep pace.

End of last summer the arms race was booming - many new miner hardware tech came about - I went from S1 to Terraminer to S3 within a period of 4 months, each with a different chipset and better, more power efficient.  But, I HAD to, in order to keep up with the diff jumps.  It was expensive, but back then coin was also at $600, which meant I could mine and turn that around for more gear and infrastructure costs for less.

Now my latest gear has been in place since January - S5's and SP31/35 units.  Since then the diff has adjusted a total of around 15-20% in over 5 months, instead of in 5 weeks.  I haven't had to upgrade anything to keep pace with growing diff, and my miners are still very viable and profitable.  In fact they're probably making more now even after the 20% diff increases, since they're now paid off and fully positive ROI has been achieved.

Part of it is the fact that you can't buy any more SPTech gear, so there's no new gear coming out from them.  Bitmain has S5 and S4+, but with the price of BTC, they're really not selling much.  I believe it's related to the price, and the upcoming halving also has an effect.  People may very well be just hanging on to what we have now as they possibly see themselves being out of the game in less than a year.  Who wants to spend a ton of money R&D'ing new gear which can take many months, for what could be very little profit return with coin so low.  If I'm a large mine, and my gear is still very profitable now as it was almost 6 months ago, why would I want to rip it all out for a very marginal increase in profit, and on top of that have to pay back all that hardware I just bought, when I'm still running perfectly fine on what I have.

I agree with a lot of Phil's previous statements - if coin goes up, people power on and chase that profit.  If diff goes up and coin doesn't, gear gets turned off and we dip the next cycle.  There's just not a price point right now that's conducive to profit, especially with summer coming and many places with higher prices for electricity coupled with the need to have even more cooling to offset the extra ambient temps from summer.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 27, 2015, 02:43:03 AM



here go to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24


about 1353 made we should be 1377

1353/1377 =  0.98257   - 1 =  -0.017429  or  (-1.743%)  real time number


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

663 blocks left    (-1.43%)


Once again not much change price at 238 usd


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 27, 2015, 03:27:32 AM
I don't know how everyone else feels.  But I am pretty happy with it looking like a negative.  it is a nice suprise to me.

We still are having trouble getting in 240's and staying there.  A little bump in price would be nice.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: Mikestang on May 27, 2015, 05:38:34 AM
I don't know how everyone else feels.  But I am pretty happy with it looking like a negative.  it is a nice suprise to me.

We still are having trouble getting in 240's and staying there.  A little bump in price would be nice.

Summer in the north kicking in I bet.  I know I'm turning a few of mine off now, getting too hot.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 27, 2015, 06:17:29 AM
I don't know how everyone else feels.  But I am pretty happy with it looking like a negative.  it is a nice suprise to me.

We still are having trouble getting in 240's and staying there.  A little bump in price would be nice.

Summer in the north kicking in I bet.  I know I'm turning a few of mine off now, getting too hot.

I did have some nice cool rainy weather. But that changed today and heat got up there.  I was thinking I could wait to install my new gable fan till weekend but if it keeps heating up I might need to turn it into a mid week project.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: Jamphone on May 27, 2015, 02:55:40 PM
I don't know how everyone else feels.  But I am pretty happy with it looking like a negative.  it is a nice suprise to me.

We still are having trouble getting in 240's and staying there.  A little bump in price would be nice.

Summer in the north kicking in I bet.  I know I'm turning a few of mine off now, getting too hot.

Ya, this is what I figure too. In particular Inner Mongolia, where a lot of mines are, is hitting summer for the first time for most of these mines. In terms of MW of capacity, about 75% has only been online since September. Even if it doesn't shut the mine down, heat could easily cause a 5% decrease in hash rates.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 27, 2015, 10:48:11 PM
I really like watching your rental philipma1957.  Is there a way for us to see when/if it hit's blocks? 

I saw the current stat's on speed but not sure how to tell with that pool if your hitting blocks.   Neat idea of you to share it though thanks for doing it.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 28, 2015, 01:12:08 AM
I really like watching your rental philipma1957.  Is there a way for us to see when/if it hit's blocks?  

I saw the current stat's on speed but not sure how to tell with that pool if your hitting blocks.   Neat idea of you to share it though thanks for doing it.


yeah    you can look here


https://blockchain.info/address/114J9nTVYHq5ZXA5hKorTLpyF6pxZgL6pf


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 28, 2015, 01:57:59 AM




here go to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24
138 5-27  -6        -30

about 1487 made we should be at  1517

1487/1517 =  0.98022   - 1 =  -0.01977  or  (-1.977%) The real time number


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

529 blocks left    (-1.97%) just about a perfect match  since we got past all of the last adjustment in bitcoinwisdom's prediction model


Once again not much change price at 238 usd


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 28, 2015, 03:18:15 AM




here go to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24
138 5-27  -6        -30

about 1487 made we should be at  1517

1487/1517 =  0.98022   - 1 =  -0.01977  or  (-1.977%) The real time number


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

529 blocks left    (-1.97%) just about a perfect match  since we got past all of the last adjustment in bitcoinwisdom's prediction model


Once again not much change price at 238 usd


It is nice to see almost a negative 2 on difficultly.  This past months have been surprising with number of negatives.

And we are kinda stuck in sub 240 price.  Seems anytime in past week we get over eventually we end up in 230's once again.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: alh on May 28, 2015, 05:27:25 AM
I saw the following, and thought a link here would be interesting:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1072474.0

I think we'll see the impact of this in the near future, which will mean a positive increase in difficulty.  :(

@Phil: You might to amend the title to say picks are closed.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 28, 2015, 11:27:04 AM
Read the link. seems like the s-3 will still earn money!

a 1 ph farm of s-3's    using .035 cents per kwatt  earns 1737 usd a day.

they may be at 0.025 cents and earn 1929 usd a day.

this farm would still earn up until the halfing.

How will this affect diff.  My guess is stable diff until 50 days or 100 days before the halfing .

I do not know what to think the halfing will do.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: kenscho on May 28, 2015, 01:05:23 PM
Read the link. seems like the s-3 will still earn money!

a 1 ph farm of s-3's    using .035 cents per kwatt  earns 1737 usd a day.

they may be at 0.025 cents and earn 1929 usd a day.

this farm would still earn up until the halfing.

How will this affect diff.  My guess is stable diff until 50 days or 100 days before the halfing .

I do not know what to think the halfing will do.


maybe the BTC Price will rise to 400+ or it stays.
When it stays many miners will shut down.. but then de diff will be more less...
no one can say what will happen


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: notlist3d on May 28, 2015, 05:32:42 PM
Bitwisdom keeps looking better and better:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,469,564,887 (-2.74%)
Adjust time:    After 443 Blocks, About 3.2 days


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 28, 2015, 05:36:23 PM
Bitwisdom keeps looking better and better:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,469,564,887 (-2.74%)
Adjust time:    After 443 Blocks, About 3.2 days

we had a mad spike at the end.  last time.  I am hoping we have a strong drop here.  maybe -4%


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: alh on May 28, 2015, 07:27:53 PM
I saw the following, and thought a link here would be interesting:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1072474.0

I think we'll see the impact of this in the near future, which will mean a positive increase in difficulty.  :(

@Phil: You might to amend the title to say picks are closed.

An amendment to the above. When I asked in that thread, the poster responded that the gear was NOT new, but rather they were relocating. So my original thought though that it would  up the long term hashrate was incorrect. It is though, several Petahash that's offline for a while during their move. Hence some of the "variance" we see could be physical location churn of hardware, as well as Bitcoin luck/variance. I'll take it while I can get it, but they "will be back...." (said with Arnold's voice).


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 28, 2015, 07:45:39 PM
I saw the following, and thought a link here would be interesting:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1072474.0

I think we'll see the impact of this in the near future, which will mean a positive increase in difficulty.  :(

@Phil: You might to amend the title to say picks are closed.

An amendment to the above. When I asked in that thread, the poster responded that the gear was NOT new, but rather they were relocating. So my original thought though that it would  up the long term hashrate was incorrect. It is though, several Petahash that's offline for a while during their move. Hence some of the "variance" we see could be physical location churn of hardware, as well as Bitcoin luck/variance. I'll take it while I can get it, but they "will be back...." (said with Arnold's voice).

they have 3 cent power add.5 cent and they are 3.5 cents at worse. the s -3 is  .8 watts a.gh  the sp20 can approach  .4 watts

so to be on an even playing  field you would need 8 cent power.

I think this kind of move means very little diff growth due to new gear.

It appears building a new farm and moving your old gear is better $ move to make then designing a new s-7.

If I were bitmaintech I will be moving 1 valley north from this build .  my 7 or 8 cent farm will be a 3 or 4 cent farm

moving good gear in trucks to a new place at have the power .  the 2015 mantra where is the cheap power?


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: TheAnalogKid on May 28, 2015, 09:30:34 PM
I saw the following, and thought a link here would be interesting:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1072474.0

I think we'll see the impact of this in the near future, which will mean a positive increase in difficulty.  :(

@Phil: You might to amend the title to say picks are closed.

An amendment to the above. When I asked in that thread, the poster responded that the gear was NOT new, but rather they were relocating. So my original thought though that it would  up the long term hashrate was incorrect. It is though, several Petahash that's offline for a while during their move. Hence some of the "variance" we see could be physical location churn of hardware, as well as Bitcoin luck/variance. I'll take it while I can get it, but they "will be back...." (said with Arnold's voice).

they have 3 cent power add.5 cent and they are 3.5 cents at worse. the s -3 is  .8 watts a.gh  the sp20 can approach  .4 watts

so to be on an even playing  field you would need 8 cent power.

I think this kind of move means very little diff growth due to new gear.

It appears building a new farm and moving your old gear is better $ move to make then designing a new s-7.

If I were bitmaintech I will be moving 1 valley north from this build .  my 7 or 8 cent farm will be a 3 or 4 cent farm

moving good gear in trucks to a new place at have the power .  the 2015 mantra where is the cheap power?
They also stated that they were looking to acquire lots of old S3's to make it to their proposed 12PH number, so again there, reuse of hardware that either was or is still hashing away.  My guess is that they do get some equipment that was offline, but most of it will just be shifting so we really should not see much of an increase overall, just maybe a dip then return as units are in transit (if the number of units is significant enough in one shot).


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: notlist3d on May 29, 2015, 01:12:54 AM
Bitwisdom keeps looking better and better:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,616,142,492 (-2.44%)
Adjust time:    After 397 Blocks, About 2.9 days
Hashrate(?):    332,785,641 GH/s

If this continues we might lose more this week then we gained during previous difficulty.  That would be a nice thing.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 29, 2015, 04:27:03 AM


here go to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24
142 5-27  -2        -26
136 5-28  -8        -34


about 1646 made we should be at  1680

1646/1680 =  0.97976   - 1 =  -0.02023  or  (-2.023%) The real time number


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


370  blocks left      (-2.27%)  


And I am thinking   -1.0  to -3.0  as a good ball park  most of us are out of it for now.




Once again not much change price at 239 usd


Looking back I was pushing open - neg  spots at the end of picking time



Some one going to grab one of the negatives before we close?



-1.51% to -1.75%  or -2.01% to -2.25%  have a shot  and are open





-1.76% to -2.00%    alh


-1.26% to -1.50%    TheAnalogKid
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%    Mikestang
-0.51% to -0.75%    kenscho
-0.26% to -0.50%    Jamphone
-0.01% to -0.25%    EMIF

+0.01% to +0.25%  tlhIwI
+0.26% to +0.50%  zebedee   
+0.51% to +0.75%  valkir
+0.76% to +1.00%  gallery2000 note I switched to this since jonnybravo0311 had picked your pick already

….



Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: notlist3d on May 29, 2015, 04:32:32 AM
It's looking pretty good on difficulty change, it appeared to be a positive.  So I'm happy it went down from first of week.

Were slightly going down in price.  Were around 237 right down heading down slowly.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: Mikestang on May 29, 2015, 05:46:21 AM
So far this is the first time since I started guessing that I've been on the right side of the +/-.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: notlist3d on May 29, 2015, 06:58:47 AM
So far this is the first time since I started guessing that I've been on the right side of the +/-.

I remain on opposite side. But I am still very happy since it went negative.  I was sure it would be positive. 

I'm happy i did not bet any money on this.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: notlist3d on May 29, 2015, 12:35:12 PM
Morning bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,841,661,702 (-1.98%)
Adjust time:    After 319 Blocks, About 2.3 days
Hashrate(?):    346,309,602 GH/s

So it's projecting a little higher then previous.  But still very nice that we have a negative.

Price is around 237 and slightly going upwards in price.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 30, 2015, 03:17:55 AM

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24
142 5-27  -2        -26
136 5-28  -8        -34
157 5-29 +13      -21

about 1776 made we should be at  1797   that = 1776/1797 =  0.9883-1 = -0.0116 which is

-1.16 %

as a real time number
.

  which would make me the leader with 240 blocks left.

bitcoinwisdom does not have this  shift in their prediction.  in the morning we will know better.


with only 240 blocks left even if we finish out strong maybe we go to = +1%




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty     (-2.61%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,534,198,971 (-2.61%)
Adjust time:   After 240 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):   340,961,799 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:15 (2.8 minutes ago)



Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: notlist3d on May 30, 2015, 03:46:27 AM

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24
142 5-27  -2        -26
136 5-28  -8        -34
157 5-29 +13      -21

about 1776 made we should be at  1797   that = 1776/1797 =  0.9883-1 = -0.0116 which is

-1.16 %

as a real time number
.

  which would make me the leader with 240 blocks left.

bitcoinwisdom does not have this  shift in their prediction.  in the morning we will know better.


with only 240 blocks left even if we finish out strong maybe we go to = +1%




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty     (-2.61%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,534,198,971 (-2.61%)
Adjust time:   After 240 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):   340,961,799 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:15 (2.8 minutes ago)



Were getting closer and closer to the end of this difficulty period.  I hope bitwisdom's number is closer one to being right.  But either one is really a win for miners.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: notlist3d on May 30, 2015, 11:23:25 AM
Bitwisdom in the morning is looking great:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,470,132,417 (-2.74%)
Adjust time:    After 195 Blocks, About 1.4 days
Hashrate(?):    342,353,913 GH/s

But price is taking a dive currently around 232 so that is not good.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 30, 2015, 01:03:55 PM
blocks made for 5/30/15


https://blockchain.info/blocks


358662   at 12.37
358597   at 00.18      


66 blocks in the first 12.5 hours      we should make 75 blocks in 12.5 hours so we are down 10 for the day.

this is very good. we are close to certain to be negative.

we are down 31 blocks

1830 made should be 1861

I figure  (-1.67%)   as the real time number  not as good as bitcoinwisdom's (-2.71%)


but still very good.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: notlist3d on May 30, 2015, 05:04:53 PM
blocks made for 5/30/15


https://blockchain.info/blocks


358662   at 12.37
358597   at 00.18      


66 blocks in the first 12.5 hours      we should make 75 blocks in 12.5 hours so we are down 10 for the day.

this is very good. we are close to certain to be negative.

we are down 31 blocks

1830 made should be 1861

I figure  (-1.67%)   as the real time number  not as good as bitcoinwisdom's (-2.71%)


but still very good.

Looks like we are around a little over a day left.   So guess we will figure out which one is closer.

Does anyone know bitwisdom's formula to how it get's it's numbers?  I would be curious to see whats its doing to predict the future and put it at a higher negative.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: suchmoon on May 30, 2015, 08:52:18 PM
Does anyone know bitwisdom's formula to how it get's it's numbers?  I would be curious to see whats its doing to predict the future and put it at a higher negative.

I don't know for a fact but I suspect it's doing a simple 2016-block average. If that's the case it could go down even more because 2016 include the last 100+ blocks of the previous cycle and those were much faster than the current ones.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: notlist3d on May 31, 2015, 12:40:30 AM
Does anyone know bitwisdom's formula to how it get's it's numbers?  I would be curious to see whats its doing to predict the future and put it at a higher negative.

I don't know for a fact but I suspect it's doing a simple 2016-block average. If that's the case it could go down even more because 2016 include the last 100+ blocks of the previous cycle and those were much faster than the current ones.

Thanks for sharing this would make sense.  I was wondering what it uses as it seems to have big swings at some points.

I wish they would possible change the equation a little to get a more steady number with less big swings in it.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks Open!
Post by: philipma1957 on May 31, 2015, 03:45:54 AM

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24
142 5-27  -2        -26
136 5-28  -8        -34
157 5-29 +13      -21
128 5-30  -16      -37

about 1923  made we should be at  1970   that = 1923/1970 =  0.9761-1 = -0.0238116 which is

-2.38. %

as a real time number
.

 

with only 93 blocks left even if we finish out strong maybe we go to =  -1.0%

sat nite

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty    (-1.39%)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,127,650,968 (-1.39%)
Adjust time:   After 93 Blocks, About 15.7 hours
Hashrate(?):   344,727,655 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:35 (8.0 minutes ago)

fri nite
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty     (-2.61%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,534,198,971 (-2.61%)
Adjust time:   After 240 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):   340,961,799 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:15 (2.8 minutes ago)



Were getting closer and closer to the end of this difficulty period.  I hope bitwisdom's number is closer one to being right.  But either one is really a win for miners.
  I am certain the difference is my real time reflects current number and bitcoinwisdom is behind 1 day.

In the morning bitcoinwisdom will change to reflect the very slow sat. numbers.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: notlist3d on May 31, 2015, 04:15:57 AM
Price took a dive in 24 hours.  It's slowly moving up from 233 now.  But considering we were around 237 kinda a disappointing day as far as price.

We should be less then a day till next change.  So hopefully we see negative drop soon on difficulty.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 31, 2015, 05:35:07 AM
Price took a dive in 24 hours.  It's slowly moving up from 233 now.  But considering we were around 237 kinda a disappointing day as far as price.

We should be less then a day till next change.  So hopefully we see negative drop soon on difficulty.

well we did 30 blocks today


https://blockchain.info/blocks


358762 05.23
358733 00.11         so after 5 hours and 23 minutes we should be at 32 blocks

we have 86 blocks to go.  we are down over 32 blocks.  I think 33 blocks off pace.

Negative is pretty sure.  we would need to do 86 blocks in 8 hours to get to  positive.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: alh on May 31, 2015, 08:44:25 AM
Just a late update from Minnesota:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,836,430,479 (-1.99%)
Adjust time:    After 70 Blocks, About 11.9 hours
Hashrate(?):    338,339,067 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
   
Updated:    3:40 (9.1 minutes ago)

Price: $234

Of course if you wanted to call it early, that would be fine with me!   :)


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: mavericklm on May 31, 2015, 08:58:00 AM
perfect time for mining my friends!!!
 :D ;D :D ;D :D ;D


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: EternalWingsofGod on May 31, 2015, 09:02:59 AM
Just a late update from Minnesota:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,836,430,479 (-1.99%)
Adjust time:    After 70 Blocks, About 11.9 hours

It will be a close call either way
Past -2% or just short of the line
See it at over -2 now but its only been a one block.

Adjust time: After 69 Blocks, About 11.8 hours  
Estimated Next Difficulty: 47,790,638,661 (-2.08%)  
Adjust time: After 69 Blocks, About 11.8 hours  


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 31, 2015, 01:57:59 PM
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


   (-2.23%)



Adjust time:   After 38 Blocks, About 6.5 hours



Quote from: philipma1957 on May 25, 2015, 09:45:21 PM

Some one going to grab one of the negatives before we close?



-1.51% to -1.75%  or -2.01% to -2.25%  have a shot  and are open





-1.76% to -2.00%    alh


-1.26% to -1.50%    TheAnalogKid
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%    Mikestang
-0.51% to -0.75%    kenscho
-0.26% to -0.50%    Jamphone



unless there is a hot streak  a  rollover looks possible.


alh
TheAnalogKid
philipma1957

kind of have a shot.

alh if you win is that a 3 peat?


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: notlist3d on May 31, 2015, 02:26:28 PM
Negative 2 makes me happy overall.  Would be a nice change.  Not huge but nice.

And wow on 3 peat, I'm lucky if I get on right side :)


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 31, 2015, 04:00:15 PM
https://blockchain.info/blocks


358820  at 15:46
358733  at 00:11

that is    87 blocks     in just about 16 hours  should be 96 blocks   so -9 on the day

we have 28 blocks to go.  we are certainly going to be minus .  so we are good.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 31, 2015, 05:54:28 PM
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


(-2.57%)


11 blocks to go


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: alh on May 31, 2015, 05:55:42 PM
IF I were to win, it would be a 3-peat. Based on the following it may well be "NO peat" for everyone.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,552,289,802 (-2.57%)
Adjust time:    After 11 Blocks, About 1.9 hours
Hashrate(?):    344,735,529 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
   
Updated:    12:50 (11.9 minutes ago)


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 31, 2015, 06:36:34 PM
3 blocks to go looks like we swung and missed.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (-2.50%)




Bitcoin Difficulty:   48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,588,082,178 (-2.50%)
Adjust time:   After 3 Blocks, About 30.4 minutes
Hashrate(?):   346,091,791 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   14:30 (6.2 minutes ago)


we are on block 358841

  358841 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:03:28   GHash.IO



we made a mad rush of blocks again look right here:

358839 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:54:34   BW.COM   000000000000000009b95e283cc825e577fa8479bc447a3e5819f3ce09c06d20
358838 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:53:13   AntPool   00000000000000000caaa6bd624b1510bf65d68f7c2389511bc598689a0d6ca3
358837 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:46:51   AntPool   00000000000000000c0824cdf5c764c3e2c546c560f8b585ed3b2234e32b55b5
358836 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:46:21   AntPool   000000000000000011f745c360c0f75e0e624295c45700d6086f779a18711285
358835 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:45:05   54.174.98.169   000000000000000011c6cad69e02e87a3781e5a63ca7cb5cd9f314b292d0c98a
358834 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:36:15   KnCMiner   0000000000000000100e59158ed2b1671ad53b223aa871c2996640aa8d343c8e
358833 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:41:20   176.9.12.228   00000000000000000831ec2522ac2b2bfe3f2a6dd11466a605f7b67dfa7c3e9a
358832 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:38:00   85.10.210.199   000000000000000013d81448541e6c515b6e8c2e7254744a36666ca42069c6e9
358831 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:23:16   AntPool   000000000000000012a3b6fd44134a6988e26942902a270a37c3ed237c25b678
358830 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:17:15   F2Pool   000000000000000006fe959af3e062b896f287e8e1614afa44cc5e0f44651972
358829 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:12:16   54.184.6.18   00000000000000000f76ea1df1fd1d0f86f68585c68cf85fbf3f858da514e22e
358828 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:09:59   80.92.188.45


12 blocks in 1 hour vs 6 blocks in one hour.

second time in 2 diff increases.

here is a guess

these companies   may overclock at the 20 block to go mark.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 31, 2015, 06:50:06 PM



358843 (Orphaned)   2015-05-31 18:07:33   AntPool   00000000000000000388895e046708c6c22b17bd23c3d24826329b2f7a49dc96
358842 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:05:45   KnCMiner   0000000000000000011ff714e267fa86665f4dc57903196499484c73fd83a29f
358841 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:03:28   GHash.IO   000000000000000004b1cbfa623fe86dbde72e17172a1116c0c88f7df4e67f89
358840 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:00:35   F2Pool   00000000000000001515892efd3f95b9236a1ebe60a59815df85408b1de80b42
358839 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:54:34   BW.COM   000000000000000009b95e283cc825e577fa8479bc447a3e5819f3ce09c06d20
358838 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:53:13   AntPool   00000000000000000caaa6bd624b1510bf65d68f7c2389511bc598689a0d6ca3
358837 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:46:51   AntPool   00000000000000000c0824cdf5c764c3e2c546c560f8b585ed3b2234e32b55b5
358836 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:46:21   AntPool   000000000000000011f745c360c0f75e0e624295c45700d6086f779a18711285

358835 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:45:05   54.174.98.169   000000000000000011c6cad69e02e87a3781e5a63ca7cb5cd9f314b292d0c98a
358834 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:36:15   KnCMiner   0000000000000000100e59158ed2b1671ad53b223aa871c2996640aa8d343c8e
358833 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:41:20   176.9.12.228   00000000000000000831ec2522ac2b2bfe3f2a6dd11466a605f7b67dfa7c3e9a
358832 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:38:00   85.10.210.199   000000000000000013d81448541e6c515b6e8c2e7254744a36666ca42069c6e9
358831 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:23:16   AntPool   000000000000000012a3b6fd44134a6988e26942902a270a37c3ed237c25b678
358830 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:17:15   F2Pool   000000000000000006fe959af3e062b896f287e8e1614afa44cc5e0f44651972
358829 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:12:16   54.184.6.18   00000000000000000f76ea1df1fd1d0f86f68585c68cf85fbf3f858da514e22e
358828 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:09:59   80.92.188.45   00000000000000000d98067b58ecdff8f0ddd1105677c6ad1550b85bb92fc339
   
16 blocks in 1 hour an 7 minute  vs   the norm of 7 blocks in one hour and 7 minutes.

second time in 2 diff increases mad rush at the end

here is a guess

these companies  (antpool)  may overclock at the 20 block to go mark.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 31, 2015, 06:56:24 PM

358846 (Orphaned)   2015-05-31 18:48:39   AntPool   00000000000000001378369a84f1a4507ef0123c01e18353ecd2887aa725eff9
358845 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:27:03   BTCChina Pool   00000000000000000a5564a838edc9aa03936f7023f856d22cb7add84477b893
358844 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:25:49   BW.COM   0000000000000000151f04e47c3982e14f70ef4c934e8559af00e317b3fdb01a

358843 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:07:33   AntPool   00000000000000000388895e046708c6c22b17bd23c3d24826329b2f7a49dc96
358842 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:05:45   KnCMiner   0000000000000000011ff714e267fa86665f4dc57903196499484c73fd83a29f
358841 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:03:28   GHash.IO   000000000000000004b1cbfa623fe86dbde72e17172a1116c0c88f7df4e67f89
358840 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:00:35   F2Pool   00000000000000001515892efd3f95b9236a1ebe60a59815df85408b1de80b42
358839 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:54:34   BW.COM   000000000000000009b95e283cc825e577fa8479bc447a3e5819f3ce09c06d20
358838 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:53:13   AntPool   00000000000000000caaa6bd624b1510bf65d68f7c2389511bc598689a0d6ca3
358837 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:46:51   AntPool   00000000000000000c0824cdf5c764c3e2c546c560f8b585ed3b2234e32b55b5
358836 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:46:21   AntPool   000000000000000011f745c360c0f75e0e624295c45700d6086f779a18711285

358835 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:45:05   54.174.98.169   000000000000000011c6cad69e02e87a3781e5a63ca7cb5cd9f314b292d0c98a
358834 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:36:15   KnCMiner   0000000000000000100e59158ed2b1671ad53b223aa871c2996640aa8d343c8e
358833 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:41:20   176.9.12.228   00000000000000000831ec2522ac2b2bfe3f2a6dd11466a605f7b67dfa7c3e9a
358832 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:38:00   85.10.210.199   000000000000000013d81448541e6c515b6e8c2e7254744a36666ca42069c6e9
358831 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:23:16   AntPool   000000000000000012a3b6fd44134a6988e26942902a270a37c3ed237c25b678
358830 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:17:15   F2Pool   000000000000000006fe959af3e062b896f287e8e1614afa44cc5e0f44651972
358829 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:12:16   54.184.6.18   00000000000000000f76ea1df1fd1d0f86f68585c68cf85fbf3f858da514e22e
358828 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:09:59   80.92.188.45   00000000000000000d98067b58ecdff8f0ddd1105677c6ad1550b85bb92fc339
   
16 blocks in 1 hour an 7 minute  vs   the norm of 7 blocks in one hour and 7 minutes.

second time in 2 diff increases mad rush at the end

here is a guess

these companies  (antpool)  may overclock at the 20 block to go mark.
also note antpool blocks first read orphaned then become good


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 31, 2015, 07:18:59 PM
It is done no winners!

May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014   5,006,860,589   17.80%   35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014   4,250,217,920   11.39%   30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014   3,815,723,799   21.92%   27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014   3,129,573,175   19.39%   22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014   2,621,404,453   19.49%   18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014   2,193,847,870   22.59%   15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014   1,789,546,951   26.16%   12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014   1,418,481,395   20.12%   10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013   1,180,923,195   30.01%   8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013   707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013   510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: mavericklm on May 31, 2015, 08:07:17 PM
we, the miners, are the winners! ;D :D


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 31, 2015, 08:31:34 PM
we, the miners, are the winners! ;D :D

damn right!!


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: alh on May 31, 2015, 09:02:57 PM
What would be thinking behind a "mad rush at the end" in terms of mining, particularly if it's almost a lock for a negative adjustment? If you were staring at a +10% adjustment, then maybe it would make sense. If your hash rate is almost certain to get more "valuable" in a few hours, might it make more sense to dial-back or coast to the next adjustment?

Or did the landlord call, and they needed a few more coins to pay the rent for June?  :)


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 31, 2015, 09:40:04 PM
What would be thinking behind a "mad rush at the end" in terms of mining, particularly if it's almost a lock for a negative adjustment? If you were staring at a +10% adjustment, then maybe it would make sense. If your hash rate is almost certain to get more "valuable" in a few hours, might it make more sense to dial-back or coast to the next adjustment?

Or did the landlord call, and they needed a few more coins to pay the rent for June?  :)

do not get the logic but 2x in a row.  last 2 hours each time blocks made per hour doubled.

I am going to clock it. the next few jumps


358863 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 21:04:09   BTC Nuggets   00000000000000000f64deeff2272e8fc6b1aab571f9811762200cf78155dc7e
358862 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 21:03:00   80.92.188.45   0000000000000000150550b7e8e55aefe83a1bba67e7735b0eeb8215d338a34f

7 vs 6
358861 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 20:56:45   198.23.177.60   00000000000000000226a171fe64ac50ba208f086eb9c7e17d672ace1283c901
358860 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 20:49:59   GHash.IO   0000000000000000101bd93f4a94965b44e56df6c500797dec71630775366377
358859 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 20:35:13   BTCChina Pool   000000000000000001f19306ce287ab28be499d8204a0b6ab4482cf28d9bcb08
358858 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 20:32:24   Slush   0000000000000000094780a00a045b65ae582ca4946057106ef8664bec692f01
358857 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 20:31:47   Slush   0000000000000000045c38909f4d37f6bc753b84b475d99fe4c44023f0e6994a
358856 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 20:09:08   F2Pool   00000000000000001419f57670f6a456fefd614d66cfa40a393023b4f7ca1b45
358855 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 20:00:16   F2Pool   00000000000000000e46e5e0084bd9817988ea13d1abec76155a61b8cd9243f4

 8 vs 6
358854 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 19:49:45   BTC Guild   00000000000000000ffa616abe097abd2748e6acf61b0644bd88fc051f080053
358853 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 19:39:23   82.221.108.21   00000000000000000148b61fb698c0df42e7eb6b7d4fa0d14acae8d27f0638c1
358852 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 19:32:52   AntPool   0000000000000000122f2c51dab4fe7a3dfe4307147eb161c3402839ec5cce61
358851 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 19:32:05   BTCChina Pool   00000000000000000bee4146c45d6a15026c0dd1fa38db42b9c7b2b73205309c
358850 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 19:24:24   BTCChina Pool   000000000000000011599f737898f6f798c91eacb4369da3f12de32d1ad140c2
358849 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 19:10:14   KnCMiner   00000000000000000a92f0569fd1ac57cb55682ceeee729bc94660a7c3c4793b
358848 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 19:06:25   BTC Nuggets   0000000000000000052bb0c3c8d6c1fba431e7c9c05a625f6b42c68e1173b789
358847 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 19:03:09   BitMinter   000000000000000003816ae80c6413b84cbee2f639ba497ab5872ec9711eb256

   7 vs 6
358846 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:48:39   AntPool   00000000000000001378369a84f1a4507ef0123c01e18353ecd2887aa725eff9
358845 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:27:03   BTCChina Pool   00000000000000000a5564a838edc9aa03936f7023f856d22cb7add84477b893
358844 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:25:49   BW.COM   0000000000000000151f04e47c3982e14f70ef4c934e8559af00e317b3fdb01a
358843 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:07:33   AntPool   00000000000000000388895e046708c6c22b17bd23c3d24826329b2f7a49dc96
358842 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:05:45   KnCMiner   0000000000000000011ff714e267fa86665f4dc57903196499484c73fd83a29f
358841 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:03:28   GHash.IO   000000000000000004b1cbfa623fe86dbde72e17172a1116c0c88f7df4e67f89
358840 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:00:35   F2Pool   00000000000000001515892efd3f95b9236a1ebe60a59815df85408b1de80b42




Antpool running s-5's  could overclock for 1 or 2 hours just  bit of time  10000 pieces at 1300gh vs 10000 pieces at 1150gh

12 vs 6
358839 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:54:34   BW.COM   000000000000000009b95e283cc825e577fa8479bc447a3e5819f3ce09c06d20
358838 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:53:13   AntPool   00000000000000000caaa6bd624b1510bf65d68f7c2389511bc598689a0d6ca3
358837 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:46:51   AntPool   00000000000000000c0824cdf5c764c3e2c546c560f8b585ed3b2234e32b55b5
358836 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:46:21   AntPool   000000000000000011f745c360c0f75e0e624295c45700d6086f779a18711285
358835 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:45:05   54.174.98.169   000000000000000011c6cad69e02e87a3781e5a63ca7cb5cd9f314b292d0c98a
358834 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:36:15   KnCMiner   0000000000000000100e59158ed2b1671ad53b223aa871c2996640aa8d343c8e
358833 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:41:20   176.9.12.228   00000000000000000831ec2522ac2b2bfe3f2a6dd11466a605f7b67dfa7c3e9a
358832 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:38:00   85.10.210.199   000000000000000013d81448541e6c515b6e8c2e7254744a36666ca42069c6e9
358831 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:23:16   AntPool   000000000000000012a3b6fd44134a6988e26942902a270a37c3ed237c25b678
358830 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:17:15   F2Pool   000000000000000006fe959af3e062b896f287e8e1614afa44cc5e0f44651972
358829 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:12:16   54.184.6.18   00000000000000000f76ea1df1fd1d0f86f68585c68cf85fbf3f858da514e22e
358828 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:09:59   80.92.188.45   00000000000000000d98067b58ecdff8f0ddd1105677c6ad1550b85bb92fc339






Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: notlist3d on May 31, 2015, 10:49:08 PM
FUnny that no winners I was sure it would be positive.  But I will settle for  May 31 2015    47,589,591,154    -2.50%    340,659,563 GH/s

Now on to next difficulty I guess :)


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on May 31, 2015, 11:23:49 PM
FUnny that no winners I was sure it would be positive.  But I will settle for  May 31 2015    47,589,591,154    -2.50%    340,659,563 GH/s

Now on to next difficulty I guess :)

locking this one.  will set up new one later.


Title: Re: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed
Post by: philipma1957 on June 01, 2015, 01:30:05 PM
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1076732.0


new thread