May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed

[notlist3d]

Morning bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,841,661,702 (-1.98%)
Adjust time:    After 319 Blocks, About 2.3 days
Hashrate(?):    346,309,602 GH/s

So it's projecting a little higher then previous.  But still very nice that we have a negative.

Price is around 237 and slightly going upwards in price.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24
142 5-27  -2        -26
136 5-28  -8        -34
157 5-29 +13      -21

about 1776 made we should be at  1797   that = 1776/1797 =  0.9883-1 = -0.0116 which is

-1.16 %

as a real time number .

  which would make me the leader with 240 blocks left.

bitcoinwisdom does not have this  shift in their prediction.  in the morning we will know better.


with only 240 blocks left even if we finish out strong maybe we go to = +1%




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty     (-2.61%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,534,198,971 (-2.61%)
Adjust time:   After 240 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):   340,961,799 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:15 (2.8 minutes ago)

[notlist3d]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24
142 5-27  -2        -26
136 5-28  -8        -34
157 5-29 +13      -21

about 1776 made we should be at  1797   that = 1776/1797 =  0.9883-1 = -0.0116 which is

-1.16 %

as a real time number .

  which would make me the leader with 240 blocks left.

bitcoinwisdom does not have this  shift in their prediction.  in the morning we will know better.


with only 240 blocks left even if we finish out strong maybe we go to = +1%




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty     (-2.61%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,534,198,971 (-2.61%)
Adjust time:   After 240 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):   340,961,799 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:15 (2.8 minutes ago)

Were getting closer and closer to the end of this difficulty period.  I hope bitwisdom's number is closer one to being right.  But either one is really a win for miners.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom in the morning is looking great:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,470,132,417 (-2.74%)
Adjust time:    After 195 Blocks, About 1.4 days
Hashrate(?):    342,353,913 GH/s

But price is taking a dive currently around 232 so that is not good.

[philipma1957]

blocks made for 5/30/15


https://blockchain.info/blocks


358662   at 12.37
358597   at 00.18      


66 blocks in the first 12.5 hours      we should make 75 blocks in 12.5 hours so we are down 10 for the day.

this is very good. we are close to certain to be negative.

we are down 31 blocks

1830 made should be 1861

I figure  (-1.67%)   as the real time number  not as good as bitcoinwisdom's (-2.71%)


but still very good.

[notlist3d]

blocks made for 5/30/15


https://blockchain.info/blocks


358662   at 12.37
358597   at 00.18      


66 blocks in the first 12.5 hours      we should make 75 blocks in 12.5 hours so we are down 10 for the day.

this is very good. we are close to certain to be negative.

we are down 31 blocks

1830 made should be 1861

I figure  (-1.67%)   as the real time number  not as good as bitcoinwisdom's (-2.71%)


but still very good.

Looks like we are around a little over a day left.   So guess we will figure out which one is closer.

Does anyone know bitwisdom's formula to how it get's it's numbers?  I would be curious to see whats its doing to predict the future and put it at a higher negative.

[suchmoon]

Does anyone know bitwisdom's formula to how it get's it's numbers?  I would be curious to see whats its doing to predict the future and put it at a higher negative.

I don't know for a fact but I suspect it's doing a simple 2016-block average. If that's the case it could go down even more because 2016 include the last 100+ blocks of the previous cycle and those were much faster than the current ones.

[notlist3d]

Does anyone know bitwisdom's formula to how it get's it's numbers?  I would be curious to see whats its doing to predict the future and put it at a higher negative.

I don't know for a fact but I suspect it's doing a simple 2016-block average. If that's the case it could go down even more because 2016 include the last 100+ blocks of the previous cycle and those were much faster than the current ones.

Thanks for sharing this would make sense.  I was wondering what it uses as it seems to have big swings at some points.

I wish they would possible change the equation a little to get a more steady number with less big swings in it.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24
142 5-27  -2        -26
136 5-28  -8        -34
157 5-29 +13      -21
128 5-30  -16      -37

about 1923  made we should be at  1970   that = 1923/1970 =  0.9761-1 = -0.0238116 which is

-2.38. %

as a real time number .

 

with only 93 blocks left even if we finish out strong maybe we go to =  -1.0%

sat nite

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty    (-1.39%)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,127,650,968 (-1.39%)
Adjust time:   After 93 Blocks, About 15.7 hours
Hashrate(?):   344,727,655 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:35 (8.0 minutes ago)

fri nite
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty     (-2.61%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,534,198,971 (-2.61%)
Adjust time:   After 240 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):   340,961,799 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:15 (2.8 minutes ago)

Were getting closer and closer to the end of this difficulty period.  I hope bitwisdom's number is closer one to being right.  But either one is really a win for miners.

  I am certain the difference is my real time reflects current number and bitcoinwisdom is behind 1 day.

In the morning bitcoinwisdom will change to reflect the very slow sat. numbers.

[notlist3d]

Price took a dive in 24 hours.  It's slowly moving up from 233 now.  But considering we were around 237 kinda a disappointing day as far as price.

We should be less then a day till next change.  So hopefully we see negative drop soon on difficulty.

[philipma1957]

Price took a dive in 24 hours.  It's slowly moving up from 233 now.  But considering we were around 237 kinda a disappointing day as far as price.

We should be less then a day till next change.  So hopefully we see negative drop soon on difficulty.

well we did 30 blocks today


https://blockchain.info/blocks


358762 05.23
358733 00.11         so after 5 hours and 23 minutes we should be at 32 blocks

we have 86 blocks to go.  we are down over 32 blocks.  I think 33 blocks off pace.

Negative is pretty sure.  we would need to do 86 blocks in 8 hours to get to  positive.

[alh]

Just a late update from Minnesota:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,836,430,479 (-1.99%)
Adjust time:    After 70 Blocks, About 11.9 hours
Hashrate(?):    338,339,067 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
   
Updated:    3:40 (9.1 minutes ago)

Price: $234

Of course if you wanted to call it early, that would be fine with me!   

[mavericklm]

perfect time for mining my friends!!!
 

[EternalWingsofGod]

Just a late update from Minnesota:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,836,430,479 (-1.99%)
Adjust time:    After 70 Blocks, About 11.9 hours

It will be a close call either way
Past -2% or just short of the line
See it at over -2 now but its only been a one block.

Adjust time: After 69 Blocks, About 11.8 hours  
Estimated Next Difficulty: 47,790,638,661 (-2.08%)  
Adjust time: After 69 Blocks, About 11.8 hours  

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


   (-2.23%)



Adjust time:   After 38 Blocks, About 6.5 hours



Quote from: philipma1957 on May 25, 2015, 09:45:21 PM

Some one going to grab one of the negatives before we close?



-1.51% to -1.75%  or -2.01% to -2.25%  have a shot  and are open





-1.76% to -2.00%    alh


-1.26% to -1.50%    TheAnalogKid
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%    Mikestang
-0.51% to -0.75%    kenscho
-0.26% to -0.50%    Jamphone



unless there is a hot streak  a  rollover looks possible.


alh
TheAnalogKid
philipma1957

kind of have a shot.

alh if you win is that a 3 peat?

[notlist3d]

Negative 2 makes me happy overall.  Would be a nice change.  Not huge but nice.

And wow on 3 peat, I'm lucky if I get on right side

[philipma1957]

https://blockchain.info/blocks


358820  at 15:46
358733  at 00:11

that is    87 blocks     in just about 16 hours  should be 96 blocks   so -9 on the day

we have 28 blocks to go.  we are certainly going to be minus .  so we are good.

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


(-2.57%)


11 blocks to go

[alh]

IF I were to win, it would be a 3-peat. Based on the following it may well be "NO peat" for everyone.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,552,289,802 (-2.57%)
Adjust time:    After 11 Blocks, About 1.9 hours
Hashrate(?):    344,735,529 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
   
Updated:    12:50 (11.9 minutes ago)

[philipma1957]

3 blocks to go looks like we swung and missed.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (-2.50%)




Bitcoin Difficulty:   48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,588,082,178 (-2.50%)
Adjust time:   After 3 Blocks, About 30.4 minutes
Hashrate(?):   346,091,791 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   14:30 (6.2 minutes ago)


we are on block 358841

  358841 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 18:03:28   GHash.IO



we made a mad rush of blocks again look right here:

358839 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:54:34   BW.COM   000000000000000009b95e283cc825e577fa8479bc447a3e5819f3ce09c06d20
358838 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:53:13   AntPool   00000000000000000caaa6bd624b1510bf65d68f7c2389511bc598689a0d6ca3
358837 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:46:51   AntPool   00000000000000000c0824cdf5c764c3e2c546c560f8b585ed3b2234e32b55b5
358836 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:46:21   AntPool   000000000000000011f745c360c0f75e0e624295c45700d6086f779a18711285
358835 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:45:05   54.174.98.169   000000000000000011c6cad69e02e87a3781e5a63ca7cb5cd9f314b292d0c98a
358834 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:36:15   KnCMiner   0000000000000000100e59158ed2b1671ad53b223aa871c2996640aa8d343c8e
358833 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:41:20   176.9.12.228   00000000000000000831ec2522ac2b2bfe3f2a6dd11466a605f7b67dfa7c3e9a
358832 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:38:00   85.10.210.199   000000000000000013d81448541e6c515b6e8c2e7254744a36666ca42069c6e9
358831 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:23:16   AntPool   000000000000000012a3b6fd44134a6988e26942902a270a37c3ed237c25b678
358830 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:17:15   F2Pool   000000000000000006fe959af3e062b896f287e8e1614afa44cc5e0f44651972
358829 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:12:16   54.184.6.18   00000000000000000f76ea1df1fd1d0f86f68585c68cf85fbf3f858da514e22e
358828 (Main Chain)   2015-05-31 17:09:59   80.92.188.45


12 blocks in 1 hour vs 6 blocks in one hour.

second time in 2 diff increases.

here is a guess

these companies   may overclock at the 20 block to go mark.