Bitcoin Forum

Previous Difficulty Thread - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1244195.0

I will be helping with this one and trying to organize picks once open.  Philipma still has ultimate say.

Going to keep the changes from previous difficulty thread as they seem to work no need to change them again:

Pick times are block 600 to block 1200
Ranges picked are .10% ranges for example:

so  -0   gives you 0 to  -0.9
and +0 gives you 0 to +0.9

Once picks open at block 600 feel free to pick as high or low as you want:

-2.5  =
-2.4  =
-2.3  =
-2.2  =
-2.1  =
-2.0  =        -2.00 to -2.09
-1.9  =        -1.90 to -1.99
-1.8  =        -1.80 to -1.89
-1.7  =        -1.70 to -1.79
-1.6  =        -1.60 to -1.69
-1.5  =        -1.50 to -1.59
-1.4  =        -1.40 to -1.49
-1.3  =        -1.30 to -1.39
-1.2  =        -1.20 to -1.29
-1.1  =        -1.10 to -1.19>>>>>>>>>> philipma1957
-1.0  =        -1.00 to -109
-0.9  =        -0.90 to -0.99
-0.8  =        -0.80 to -0.89
-0.7  =        -0.70 to -0.79
-0.6  =        -0.60 to -0.69
-0.5   =      -0.50 to -0.59
-0.4   =      -0.40 to -0.49
-0.3   =      -0.30 to -0.39
-0.2   =      -0.20 to -0.29
-0.1   =      -0.10 to -0.19
-0.0   =      -0.00 to  -0.09


 0.0   =      +0.00 to +0.09
+0.1  =     +0.10 to +0.19
+0.2  =     +0.20 to +0.29
+0.3  =     +0.30 to +0.39
+0.4  =     +0.40 to +0.49
+0.5  =      +0.50 to +0.59
+0.6  =
+0.7  =  
+0.8  =
+0.9  =
+1.0  =

And above!

From Block 600 put in your guess.  Please make sure it's not taken already, if it is you will be given closest to pick open at time I fix it(Unless you catch it first and correct it yourself).  Upon block to 1200 the period for picks is over and no more will be accepted.

Newbie accounts will be closely monitored.  If it seems anyone is trying to game the system with low level accounts the right is reserved to restrict to higher level, and remove ones that seem suspicious. Hopefully this will not be needed.

All speculation is welcome it is meant to be a fun thread.  Please keep it fun and civil :).  And good luck to all!

Picks during this period:

+5.1    = Biodom
+6.0    = Last of the V8s (member registered March 15)
+6.6    = Tmdz (Jr Member - registered October 21)
+7.7    = ezeminer
+7.8    = VirosaGITS
+8.1    = wlefeve
+8.3    = The Young Turk
+8.4    = keystroke
+8.5    = valkir
+8.6    = Herbpean
+8.8    = tss
+9.2    = edonkey
+9.3    = Lituation
+9.4    = UfoRia (member registered September 22)
+9.5    = Amph
+9.7    = ailikun
+9.8    = vortexz
+9.9    = mikestang
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.2  = cakir
+10.3  = Finksy
+10.4  = adaseb
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+10.9  = alh
+11.0  = mavericklm
+11.1  = Quickseller
+11.2  = dukeneptun
+11.3  = RichBC
+11.4  = artibg (member resistered December 03, 2013)
+11.5  = needmoney
+11.6  = Lboss
+11.7  = Notlist3d
+12.2  = philipma1957
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod
+12.5  = indiemax
+13.3   = d57heinz

Thank you. Much appreciated break for me.

Not a problem at all! Just let me know if you see anything needing changes. 

And as said above I am helping monitor this thread.  If you want to thank people Phil and suchmoon are the ones that deserve the thanks!

If you're looking at bitcoinwisdom:

Estimated Next Difficulty:   80,053,971,267 (+10.08%)

and feel terrified... well you should be  ;D but also please keep in mind that bitcoinwisdom seems to be doing a simple 2016-block average for its estimate, so at this time it's including that massive mountain of hashrate from the previous cycle. However if you look at the 504-block average:

6 blocks: 58.7 minutes

It's 1.3/60 = only about 2% above the target 10 minute/block rate.

I like your description much more that is for sure.  Bitwisdom scares the crap out of me if we could do 2 big ones in a row.  With such a big hashrate overall I was betting we would not see big jumps like we did last period.

But I was wrong.  Hopefully it goes down though.

bitcoinwisdom is highly influence by the last difficulty. Since the last one was a big jump, his estimate is pretty much wrong. It'll correct himself unless someone throw a ton of hashrate again.

When will picks open exactly? Is it when we see "After 1200 blocks" in adjust time? Right now 1887 blocks left.

Estimated Next Difficulty:   80,266,763,525 (+10.37%)
Adjust time: After 1887 Blocks, About 12.8 days

Picks open at 600 blocks completed and close at 1200 blocks completed in the current difficulty adjustment cycle.

There are 2016 blocks in each cycle, so that means picks open when Bitcoinwisdom shows

"Adjust time: After 1416 Blocks"

and close at

"Adjust time: After 816 Blocks"

Oh, I guess I'm wrong. Nice to know that, thanks suchmoon.
We have still 471 blocks to go, that means 3-3.5 days approximately. I should check the thread again at weekend. :)

today is about 6.5%

https://blockchain.info/blocks

385187 (Main Chain)   2015-11-24 22:45:16

385041 (Main Chain)   2015-11-24 00:00:20


147 blocks in the time we should make 138   

I like the real number much more then the bitwisdom number.  It still is very ugly:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:    80,401,658,248 (+10.56%)
Adjust time:    After 1867 Blocks, About 12.6 days
Hashrate(?):    548,401,065 GH/s

Today only ended up being +7% but after all the difficulty already adjusted yesterday by 10% so I guess +7% still is considered high.

I like 5 or less myself.  I did most of my ROI at 5 as high side..... but it might be changing and I might need to chance some excel sheets I have.  Kinda using this week as another idication if it slowing down or if it continues.

Worst case is Bitmain, Avalon, and Bitfury are all currently pumping out gear.  Not sure if that is happening or true.   But there are still some like SP-50 and that B-11 I think it is that I don't think we have seen.  So it could be even worse I guess.

Good news is we were pretty low for a long time, so a few high ones will not kill my ROI.  But if it becomes normal it's sure going to hurt my bottom line.

if you count the last diff jump 3 straight 10+ would get us to 88 bill diff that would make up for the price jump from 235 to 325. I do not rule it out. The builders of gear can simply lower prices a little at a time and I think people will buy into it.

I max at  6kwatts or 2 s-7's and 4 avalon 6's .  more due to heat issues then any other reason

This round will be interesting since difficulty is maintaining itself above 10%
Presuming that their is not a real price increase and mining units stay operational I expect it to end around this range or go up a bit more.
That said we still have at least a few more rounds before we start to near 100,000,000,000 and that's food for thought.

Bitcoin Difficulty: 72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty: 80,772,480,881 (+11.07%)  
Adjust time: After 1861 Blocks, About 12.4 days  

Interesting, all the new 16nm tapeouts, the weird huge drops/rises on the hash rate, the massive difficulty increases that seem to be upon us and the sudden bottom resistance being met on the coin.

Should be an interesting next four weeks....


Ufo

Another 10% to get us around 80 B difficulty would not be unusual by any means, hardware is getting pushed out and set up.  But All these new batches of antminers are still yet to be received, I think about 3 batches are in the works still.  So im not sure how much addition hash this will equal, big jumps could be expected once all that get shipped out.

Buy coins, hodl the ones you have and don't buy miners.


disclaimer: I am a miner and wish I would have not bought my 45 day late ant s7's B1's.

Well the builders have decided to open the floodgates.  So I see  some big jumps coming.  Looks like d57heinz   has pegged the jump  ahead of all of us.

Well time to watch is now.

We also have the $400 wall to crash through.....


Ufo

We also have not heard from some big sales.  Mr. Lee claimed to buy 3PH of avalon 6's i think it was - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=934581.0 .

No announcement on his cloud mining going up yet I don't think.  So there could be lot's of Avalon's going out to.  Just like BlockC should have 10 MW center.... between just Avalon and Bitmain were talking about a ton of possible gear.

I ponder if the bottom resistance collapses what will happen....


Ufo

edit: I am dropping some longs on four exchanges. If it drops $5 I win. :P

Morning Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:    80,638,852,630 (+10.89%)
Adjust time:    After 1774 Blocks, About 11.9 days
Hashrate(?):    537,546,048 GH/s

So still much higher then we would like to see.  Hopefully we see some downward movement.

Wow, it's getting worse. I am hopeful a correction is made soon, which I think will happen if we have another 10%+ dif increase. That will be the killing point for a large amount of the old miners that don't have sub 0.05 cent electricity.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   81,613,277,007 (+12.23%)
Adjust time:   After 1735 Blocks, About 11.4 days
Hashrate(?):   541,896,491 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.7 minutes
Updated:   16:15 (4.0 minutes ago)

the numbers are too high but if people keep adding gear they will become true.

yesterday we made about 154 blocks  today we made 141 with an hour to go.  so in two days  we will be at 302 vs 288 or  only 6%.

It is a USA holiday tomorrow my we only do 140 blocks.


I am thinking after 3 days say 10pm New York East coast time on Thurs we are about 4 or 5% (I hope)


http://btc.blockr.io/charts


169
178
170
162  really bad 4 days but all last diff


154  yesterday
14?  today      both new diff          and both a lot better then the last four days from the  last diff

I like 5 percent much better then 12.  Seems bitwisdom really is highly effected by last, which is scary to look at.

I had some family things today and will have some tomorrow.  I'm hoping slows down for the holiday, but with a lot of the gear staying in China I have a feeling they will keep pumping out and hooking up Avalon 6, and Bitmain S7's and not observe Thanksgiving.

Possible new speculation on miner:


If I read that right possible new s7 variant?  He has been good before on speculation of future miners.

154
152   so 306 vs 288 =  +6.25%    this is realtime number while


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+12.34%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   81,700,303,122 (+12.34%)
Adjust time:   After 1704 Blocks, About 11.2 days
Hashrate(?):   539,304,964 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.3 minutes
6 blocks: 56.6 minutes
Updated:   23:5 (1.5 minutes ago)


and to completely  make things more interesting look at price on coin base back up to  332 it was 318 in the morning.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    81,616,641,037 (+12.23%)
Adjust time:    After 1693 Blocks, About 11.1 days
Hashrate(?):    541,949,430 GH/s

wtf! the graph doesn't look that bad but the numbers....

Conservative: 6.1%
normal 8.1%
Continuous: 14.1 %
http://nextdifficulty.com/

crap  :(

I am considering taking that continous version of diff change down because it's scaring people too much and is as wrong as bitcoinwisdom's early estimates.
Conservative says this is difficulty change that should happen NOW if we took mining speed for last 2016 blocks (of course recalculated with valid difficulty) so it always starts at 0 after each difficulty change.
Continous says lets project the hashrate speed change of last 1500+ blocks to blocks which should be mined this period (considering also how many blocks are yet to be mined) so it is very agressive and has been useful in 2014.
'Normal' is just weighted average of those 2 numbers where conservative has currently more weight.

The best solution would be disable calculations for first x blocks because it is really impossible to estimate anything upon that, but people love numbers :)

I think that it's great to have a number of different projections, the key for me is having a good description of how each of the projections is calculated so that you can then make up your own mind which one to use.

Rich

Price is still heading up which is good.  Currently around $341.61 on coinbase.   So price is moving with difficulty some it seems.

As long as price rises with nasty changes guess we will not be hurting as bad.  Will be interesting to see what price does in relation to difficulty change over coming weeks.

Big price move 357 on coinbase!  Oh happy T-day to those that celebrate it.

Looks like we lost a little ground currently: 344.69.  Hopefully we can get over 350 again today.  If we do that I would consider it a win.

Bitwisdom still has scary high numbers.  I hope it's wrong by a decent amount.

By the numbers it looks like were up about 8% so a 10% diff increase sounds pretty possible at this point AND if btc price can hold at $350 or better 10% or more is nearly guaranteed. So 350 price would be like a 8% gain and then difficulty takes it away, at least it dampens the effect some.

Today was an awful day.

175 Blocks found so +21.52

That is a strong discovery range, at present the predicted is still +14 for now, but there was a bit of price appreciation today before BBF so maybe difficulty will move up, I'll hold an opinion on that until Friday sales are processed by merchants though.

Bitcoin Difficulty: 72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty: 82,828,549,627 (+13.90%) 
Adjust time: After 1539 Blocks, About 9.9 days 
Hashrate(?): 568,888,961 GH/s

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


169
178
170
162  really bad 4 days but all last diff


154
152   so 306 vs 288 =  +6.25%    
174    480 vs     432 = +11.11% this is realtime number while

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+14.12%)     Is a future predication


Now we had price go wacky today at:

 midnight  332 usd
7:30 am   368 usd
11:30 pm 349 usd

the 332 to 349 is 5% price  but 332 to 368 was 11%   if we can start to get big price swings up from now until the ½ ing  we are going to have a lot of fun.  With buying and selling coins with diff jumps and the like.  So for now I will track my coins and wait for 390 to sell some.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    83,033,276,146 (+14.18%)
Adjust time:    After 1522 Blocks, About 9.7 days
Hashrate(?):    575,061,813 GH/s

Lovely! and i start to think about overclockin' in place of underclock.....

Adjust time:   After 1479 Blocks, About 9.5 days


so at 1416   we can make our picks.

about 5 hours maybe 4.


I am going to not pick my -1.11%  !

I am actually going to try to handicap and pick closer to the 1200th block.


on a better note for today.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

385593 (Main Chain)   2015-11-27 12:37:55
385521 (Main Chain)   2015-11-27 00:04:14

73  blocks made in the time  for 76 blocks   12 hours and 40 minutes   is 6 x 12  + 4  = 76

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   81,537,027,614 (+12.12%)
Adjust time:   After 1450 Blocks, About 9.5 days
Hashrate(?):   553,398,709 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.2 minutes
6 blocks: 56.5 minutes

34 blocks left. Less than 6 hours for picks to open.

Not to far away.  Once it does open please if possible do a in a format that I can just copy/paste if possible.

For example a negative 7.4 is shown as the following:
-7.4 = notlist3d

And a example of a positive 7.4 is shown as following
+7.4 = notlist3d

You can go as high or low as you want, just please don't pick a number already picked.  On start and stop thanks suchmoon for doing the math.  Start and stop are as following if your looking at bitwisdom - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty:


Again good luck to all once it starts!

well today we look to do  under 140 blocks?


385628 (Main Chain)   2015-11-27 20:29:08


385521 (Main Chain)   2015-11-27 00:04:14



108 made  and  we should be doing 123  so 15 under......  yesterday 20 over?  seesaw?  


or maybe there is a  china ghost city filled with old s-3'5 and s-5's  and they can't get power 24/7/365


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

169
178
170
162  really bad 4 days but all last diff  these four ending the last adjustment = 679




154  11/24/2015
152   11/25/2015
174    11/26/2015
13?      11/27/2015  these four to start  this period will be under  620

17 blocks  or 2.5-3 hours to go until picks open. If we learned anything from the last time - let's not rush all at once :). Picking your guess towards the end is likely to be more accurate.

The prize this time is

0.216 BTC

due to rollover from the previous contest and both philipma1957 and alh donating their winnings from the quick quiz (0.008 each - I rounded it up from 0.007-something). Thanks guys!

45 day's is quite a bit.  What did they do on compensation?

I'm curious as even if they do the crappy one they announced.  That many day's is still a decent amount of extra BTC.

Looks like picks should be open.  They will close at block 1200 in this period.   Any after that will not be counted.   

Good luck to all!

+10.0  = Tupsu

So Far at this point:

-1.1     =  philipma1957
+10.0  =  Tupsu
+12.3  =  EternalWingsofGod

There hasn't been any compensation yet as far as I know.

I have not heard of any either... which is odd.  In past they did coupons and were pretty quick at sending them out.  But they choose a pretty low compensation, and seem to be very slow on paying it.

Keep hoping to see it some day to see what they actually do.

Picking +12.3 % for this round.
P@Q

i think i wrote that i am not picking that and will wait to near the end to pick.

The cats are really worried about ROI. I'm afraid there will be a real mess in the litter box after this adjustment...

+9.2 = edonkey

+8.6  = Herbpean

Thanks !

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

169
178
170
162  really bad 4 days but all last diff  these four ending the last adjustment = 679




154  11/24/2015
152   11/25/2015
174    11/26/2015
128    11/27/2015  these four to start  this period will be about 615

so 4 x 144 = 576  we are at 608  so +5.55% is 'real' time.

These weird monster drop days  like today 128   really seem to show a ghost mine of s-3's  or s-5's.  the owner of the mine gets short term power 1, 2, 3, 4 days  then needs to power off.

I would not think it is bit fury or sp-tech doing it as   I would think one or two tests and it will just stay up.

But a Chinese  20 ph or 30 ph mine of older gear  with free power seems like it could be true.

Look at the pattern.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

10-28 --112    
10-29 --153
10-30 --167    
10-31 --149    
11-1  -- 150    
11-2  -- 158      
11-3 --  153    
11-4  -- 157    
11-5  -- 146    
11-6  -- 142    
11-7  -- 153    
11-8  -- 143    
11-9  -- 148    
11-10 --145
11-11 --169
11-12 --158
11-13 --161
11-14 -- 146
11-15 --156
11-16-- 175
11-17-- 146
11-18-- 156
11-19-- 131
11-20-- 169
11-21-- 178
11-22-- 170
11-23-- 162
11-24-- 154
11-25-- 152
11-26-- 174
11-27 --128

big swing days have become very common  over the last two months.

@ notlist I am picking at the end and not my repeater.  although if we are really low I reserve right to pick any unpicked number available.

+10.1  = zebedee

Thank you

+11 = mavericklm

10x!

+10.4 = adaseb

I'm sure I just missed it.  I will strike it off from there.

This should be current as of now.  If I missed you or made any mistakes please say something :)

+8.6    = Herbpean
+9.2    = edonkey
+9.8    = vortexz
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.4  = adaseb
+11     = mavericklm
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod

And good luck to all!

Not sure who's writing the script for the Bitcoin Game, but they are doing a good job and it looks like we are in for another exciting period, with hopefully the Exchange rate beating the Difficulty. I am going to play a waiting game on this pick...  :)

Rich

+9.8 diff = vortexz

You have been added to the list - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1260927.msg13090875#msg13090875 . Good luck!

To try to keep thread looking a little cleaner I will post when I add people and where the post is it was added  to.  I won't always post list as if I post the entire list 10x or more a day you will have to read through it and it kinda get's in way of speculation and good conversations.  I will also keep the 3rd post on first page with a link to most recent post of numbers.

+10.2 please :)

thanks for adding me.does this have a prize or something for the winner ?

Since I have not mined nor been too involved with Bitcoin for some time, what is the current difficulty right now?

+10.6 = DanDan

Waiting more than 10 percent again. Good luck.

Thanks to suchmoon and the ones who let their prize roll over yes.  Espically suchmoon on the prize.

72 bill


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   80,756,924,981 (+11.05%)
Adjust time:   After 1326 Blocks, About 8.7 days
Hashrate(?):   552,660,432 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.9 minutes
Updated:   9:15 (5.3 minutes ago)

Has it fallen below a previous higher difficulty in the past 10-12 months?

Scroll down on this page and you'll find the history over the last couple of years.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Yes, it has gone down previously but we also just had the first 10%+ jump in a year so this one is tricky.

and soon a 2nd one at about 10% :P

+10.8 ingiltere

Please everyone post in format from first page (Thanks  to all already doing it! ).  It is much appreciated in being able to copy/paste into list.   For example the quoted post should have been:
+10.2  = cakir

Below is updated list:
+8.6   = Herbpean
+9.2   = edonkey
+9.8   = vortexz
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.4  = adaseb
+11    = mavericklm
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod
+10.2  = cakir
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere

+6.6 = Tmdz

will right now we are under 10%  bitcoin wisdom is off .

Today and yesterday are surprisingly slow days.

Only +5.88% today

I am going to pick +11.0 (+11.0 to +11.09)%.

It seems that stagnant BTC prices was very good for the miners throughout 2015, and the recent rally has been less then ideal, although so far, in terms of USD the miners are still on top after the recent rally

Current Picks:

+6.6   = Tmdz (Jr Member - registered October 21)
+8.6   = Herbpean
+9.2   = edonkey
+9.8   = vortexz
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.2  = cakir
+10.4  = adaseb
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+11     = mavericklm
+11.1  = Quickseller (currently holding picked 11 after meverick this might change)
+12     = Amph
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod

Don't like the 159  we are six days in. and should be 6 x 144 =  864 made  real number made = 929

but last adjustment after six days we were at 965 

put me on the 12% mark

so +12%

Sorry I did not see till cleaning list Maverick already picked this earlier.


I put you at 11.1 but let me know if you want it changed let me know and it can be moved.

current list is as follows:

+6.6   = Tmdz (Jr Member - registered October 21)
+8.6   = Herbpean
+9.2   = edonkey
+9.8   = vortexz
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.2  = cakir
+10.4  = adaseb
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+11     = mavericklm
+11.1  = Quickseller
+11.2  = dukeneptun
+12     = Amph
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod

+11.2 = dukeneptun

I see people guess bigger percentages this time, +%10.6 change effected predicts of a lot of us. :)

I liked the new version of the thread(0.1 increment and picking until 1200th block) I used to pick at last blocks and will continue to it.

Btw, it seems that we will see big jumps(10+%) at least 2-3 times. I think, with the increase of price, not a big problem for miners.
Anyway, big jumps->more volatility->some arbitrage opportunities :)

I agree it's kinda a fun idea.  Seems to have stopped first day all good picks being taken.  Was a race to get good number.

Also now should be more weeks with no one picking it which i view as fun.  Roll overs always are fun.

+8.8% please ;D

You can change my pick to +11.1%. I didn't see that mavericklm had already picked 11%

Thanks It has been done!   Still lots of numbers for others to pick.  Great luck to all!

https://blockchain.info/blocks


385910 (Main Chain)   2015-11-29 15:18:49

385808 (Main Chain)   2015-11-29 00:18:05



103 blocks in 16 hours    as time is now 16:02  should be 96  so for today only +7.29%

I have us in real time about 7%


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   has a future number  at (+10.36%)

we have made 854 blocks  so we are not at halfway mark yet 

+9.4 please

+6.0 = Last of the V8s
pls/thx

+8.8 = tss

thanks

+8.5 = valkir

thanks  ;D

+8.3 please.
This time will be lower jump than the previous one ( %10 was quite higher, but price is rising, it may be higher again).

+11.4% :D

Currently for today we are flat at +0%

No idea what is going on with this hashrate. Goes up and down.

Updated as shown below:

+6     = Last of the V8s (member registered March 15)
+6.6   = Tmdz (Jr Member - registered October 21)
+7.7   = ezeminer
+8.3   = The Young Turk
+8.5   = valkir
+8.6   = Herbpean
+8.8   = tss
+9.2   = edonkey
+9.3   = Lituation
+9.4   = UfoRia (member registered September 22)
+9.8   = vortexz
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.4  = adaseb
+11    = mavericklm
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod
+10.2  = cakir
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+11    = Quickseller
+11.4  = artibg (member resistered December 03, 2013)

Please post in copy/paste format it makes it much quicker. It is much appreciated those who did, and best of luck to all.

+7.7   = ezeminer

+9.3 = Lituation

It's quite possible to see less than 10 percent but still high numbers in difficulty. Bitcoin price is rising to over 370 dollars right now, that would be a game changer.

Both of the above have been added to chart of picks on previous page.

But you are right coinbase has us just a tad over 370 which is a decent jump.  With difficulty going up like this I was hoping to see this happen but it's not a sure thing.  My biggest hope is within the next few weeks we break the 400 barrier.   I really would like to see it go above there again.

I am waiting until block  1111 is made to pick.

we are at block 900 made.



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  >>>>>>>>(+9.22%)<<<< so far I read this as too high.
Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   79,424,858,398 (+9.22%)
Adjust time:   After 1116 Blocks, About 7.4 days
Hashrate(?):   542,000,841 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.1 minutes


But the swings in hashrate are nutty.

how is this for a speculation.

I am a big Chinese asic builder.


I have a s-3 ghost mine 10ph in size
I have a s-5 ghost mine 20ph in size

I am like the Hunt brothers back in the 1970's and I making a play on BTC rather then silver (Hunt brothers in 1978 IIRC)   

If I drive the price up to 350 by buying coins in some exchanges.

Turning my ghost mines on makes more sense at 350 plus.

then when diff is getting too high turn them off.

So I would be moving BTC price up along with diff as a seesaw. up and down.

I know it sounds like a tinfoil hat conspiracy but you never know.

Based on my idea tomorrow blocks will jump up like a mofo.

This time i'll go with;

+7.7 = VirosaGITS

I am pretty sure the Diff will go under what its estimated at right now, but i don't know by how much, seeing how well the BTC price is doing.

Just Saying  ::)

Thanks for spotting already!  VirosaGITS please let us know what you second pick is as it was already taken.

Below is current as of posting:
+6     = Last of the V8s (member registered March 15)
+6.6   = Tmdz (Jr Member - registered October 21)
+7.7   = ezeminer
+7.8   = VirosaGITS
+8.3   = The Young Turk
+8.5   = valkir
+8.6   = Herbpean
+8.8   = tss
+9.2   = edonkey
+9.3   = Lituation
+9.4   = UfoRia (member registered September 22)
+9.8   = vortexz
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.4  = adaseb
+11    = mavericklm
+11.2 = dukeneptun
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod
+10.2  = cakir
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+11    = Quickseller
+11.4  = artibg (member resistered December 03, 2013)

Woops, i copy pasted ezminer's line and intended to change the name AND the number. I got distracted and forgot to change the number by .1. Attention deficit for the win? xD

+7.8   = VirosaGITS

If you please. ;)

No problem at all.  You have been added to list with picked number.

It is about 2 posts above. 

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

10-28 --112    
10-29 --153
10-30 --167    
10-31 --149    
11-1  -- 150    
11-2  -- 158      
11-3 --  153    
11-4  -- 157    
11-5  -- 146    
11-6  -- 142    
11-7  -- 153    
11-8  -- 143    
11-9  -- 148    
11-10 --145


11-11 --169
11-12 --158
11-13 --161
11-14 -- 146
11-15 --156
11-16-- 175
11-17-- 146
11-18-- 156
11-19-- 131
11-20-- 169
11-21-- 178
11-22-- 170

The ones below are for this adjustment

11-23-- 162
11-24-- 154
11-25-- 152
11-26-- 174

11-27 --128

11-28-- 159

11-29--147

big swing days have become very common  over the last two months.


last adjustment after 7 days =  1111 blocks made
this adjustment after 7 days =  1076 blocks made

I noticed some dude rented a bunch of hash and pointed it to slush

https://www.nicehash.com/index.jsp?p=orders&a=1

https://mining.bitcoin.cz/stats/


The pool hash increased by 10ph/s however doesn't he need to mine for at least 3 hours to get the PPLNS to work properly and get the full reward if the next few blocks are solved > 100% ?

this guy has done this more then once.

I don't understand the rules and why he thinks overpaying at .0076 vs .0066   and for 10ph this is a lot  of coin.  maybe someone could explain why it is worth it for him to overpay.  or if he is just a nut job pissing away money?

Looking at https://mining.bitcoin.cz/accounts/profile/rewards/?page=1


If you jump in after 9 hours or so, in the past the day ended up being negative anyways. Seems lately doing this leads to bad luck.

I think it's likely someone who thinks they know what they are doing but has no idea.   I am willing to be he has a spreadsheet or something where he added up and thinks profit... but eventually he will realize hes losing unless he's is a nut like you mentioned and does not monitor BTC.

Not to often do you see people send hash there on rentals.   I had not been monitoring nicehash looks like up at  7% , was under for the longest time.  Is nicehash starting to stay above 100 percent again?

No Just for the last few hours.

I am pretty sure there is no good reason to over pay as much as he is paying.  But I would love to know if he has an angle.  1000 x 0.0010 = 1 btc so he is over paying by 8btc if he rent 8ph for a day.

These are 100 percent speculation and out there, I'm not making a accusation.  Just here are two things I can think of.

1) Push up the price on nicehash.  Either nicehash wanting to do it themself (which I don't see them), or a big miner hoping to push it back over 100 as normal.  I could not figure out why people mined there for less then 100 percent.   But I guess I remember day's where it has some crazy payments.

2) The pool want's to look bigger to attract more people.  Some pools seems to get less and less hash overtime and they lose profit.  I dont see this happening either... but it could.

Those are my two tinfoil hat speculations.

I thought it was just done when Slush had been a long time without a block to take advantage of their payment algorithm if a block is then hit?

I leave all my miners first pool set to nicehash with the price level set for people who do this and caught some at 0.0427 & 0.0134 BTC/TH/Day.

Rich

Did you miss my prediction? I can't see it in the latest lists.

No I decided you do not get to pick... ofcourse I missed it :) thank you for saying something.  Again if anyone spots errors with their picks please just say something like this so it is resolved quickly.

Below is currrent list:

+6     = Last of the V8s (member registered March 15)
+6.6   = Tmdz (Jr Member - registered October 21)
+7.7   = ezeminer
+7.8   = VirosaGITS
+8.3   = The Young Turk
+8.5   = valkir
+8.6   = Herbpean
+8.8   = tss
+9.2   = edonkey
+9.3   = Lituation
+9.4   = UfoRia (member registered September 22)
+9.8   = vortexz
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.4  = adaseb
+11    = mavericklm
+11.2 = dukeneptun
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod
+10.2  = cakir
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+11    = Quickseller
+11.4  = artibg (member resistered December 03, 2013)

Best of luck to all so far.

+8.1   = wlefever  for me please.

I'm hoping we will stabilize around this next difficulty increase for a few periods.  And, wouldn't mind a dip in BTC price so I can get a few more before the new year!     

+5.1 = Biodom

Thanks. It is going down...at least I hope...

Adding two:

+5.1 = Biodom
+6     = Last of the V8s (member registered March 15)
+6.6   = Tmdz (Jr Member - registered October 21)
+7.7   = ezeminer
+7.8   = VirosaGITS
+8.1   = wlefeve
+8.3   = The Young Turk
+8.5   = valkir
+8.6   = Herbpean
+8.8   = tss
+9.2   = edonkey
+9.3   = Lituation
+9.4   = UfoRia (member registered September 22)
+9.8   = vortexz
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.4  = adaseb
+11    = mavericklm
+11.2 = dukeneptun
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod
+10.2  = cakir
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+11    = Quickseller
+11.4  = artibg (member resistered December 03, 2013)

And I hope you are right Biodom we sure could use a week of lower difficulty.  Good news is value seems to be staying up a little bit.

Can I get +8.4?

keystroke = +8.4

Thanks!

we made 1019 blocks we have 997 to go

picks close in 181 blocks .  Sometime tues  and we are at about  8% real numbers

bitcoin wisdom has us at


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+8.97%)  -----  this is high but s7 batch 7 will arrive  at buyers mines so I think we move over 9 soon



Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   79,246,422,087 (+8.97%)
Adjust time:   After 997 Blocks, About 6.5 days
Hashrate(?):   529,158,263 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.7 minutes
Updated:   14:20 (4.5 minutes ago)

+9.9   = mikestang

Please and thank you.

We kept thinking S7 hash would hit for like 3 adjustments, but we didn't really see anything until this last one.  Do you really think batch 7 will makes its presence known right away?  I think we might not see it for an adjustment or 3.

+10.2 = Finksy

Thanks for doing this

You should sort the list, that looks confusing. Let me help you.

+5.1   = Biodom
+6.0   = Last of the V8s (member registered March 15)
+6.6   = Tmdz (Jr Member - registered October 21)
+7.7   = ezeminer
+7.8   = VirosaGITS
+8.1   = wlefeve
+8.3   = The Young Turk
+8.4   = keystroke
+8.5   = valkir
+8.6   = Herbpean
+8.8   = tss
+9.2   = edonkey
+9.3   = Lituation
+9.4   = UfoRia (member registered September 22)
+9.8   = vortexz
+9.9   = mikestang
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.2  = cakir
+10.3  = Finksy
+10.4  = adaseb
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+11.0  = mavericklm
+11.1  = Quickseller
+11.2 = dukeneptun
+11.4  = artibg (member resistered December 03, 2013)
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod

*List sorted.
*Added keystroke and mikestang.
*Added Finksy as +10.3 because +10.2 is taken already. If you want another place please reply.

Please do not add people to list. The last thing we need is multiple people doing this.  I copy/pasted wrong one... good one as in a notepad.  I do appreciate you spotting it and cleaning it up.

I know you had good intentions, but it just gets confusing with multiple doing it.  So please refrain from adding to list.

+10.2  = cakir alredy took 10.2 is 10.3 ok with you?

List:

+5.1    = Biodom
+6.0    = Last of the V8s (member registered March 15)
+6.6    = Tmdz (Jr Member - registered October 21)
+7.7    = ezeminer
+7.8    = VirosaGITS
+8.1    = wlefeve
+8.3    = The Young Turk
+8.4    = keystroke
+8.5    = valkir
+8.6    = Herbpean
+8.8    = tss
+9.2    = edonkey
+9.3    = Lituation
+9.4    = UfoRia (member registered September 22)
+9.8    = vortexz
+9.9    = mikestang
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.2  = cakir
+10.3  = Finksy
+10.4  = adaseb
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+11.0  = mavericklm
+11.1  = Quickseller
+11.2  = dukeneptun
+11.4  = artibg (member resistered December 03, 2013)
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod

Waiting to hear if 10.3 is  ok with Finksy as first pick was taken.

@ Lituation  yeah  as much as it is tempting to help out  it won't work in the long run.

 I let suchmoon do edits and notlist3d when I run this contest.  It can just be too easy for a mistake .

Sometimes notlist3d will run the contest if I am on vacation or holidays (Thankgiving)  and of course suchmoon has provide almost all of the prizes.
 I gave 2 compac sticks away and he paid the rest of the btc prize money.


We have grown a bit and more  attention  is on the thread also we now have more then 2x the numbers to pick from.

Remember  we have really worked hard to keep this fun free and speculative.  
For the most part it has been that way. My apologies to d57heinz for calling him a FUD spreader last thread.

Back to spec:

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1448846327133


386118 (Main Chain)   2015-11-30 23:52:02
385957 (Main Chain)   2015-11-30 00:07:46

162  bad day for diff  lots of s-7's batch 7 arrived today .. I had 2 come in as did many other miners..

And phil still has ultimate control :).  I'm just helping with this week.   It will always be his as far as this thread owner.   So there is someone to overrule me when I make stupid mistakes.

Today just got really busy.  I'm still waiting on a few deals to come through.  I was expecting a easy day but turned into a long one for sure.

One simple rule for all participants if I may:

After you post your guess please check back in 12-24 hours and make sure your number is in the list and in the correct place. Double-checking one number is much easier and less error-prone than someone having to double-check 50 numbers.

And don't hesitate to point out any issues with your (or anyone's) pick. Remember - we love you even if we yell at you occasionally  ;D

Thanks suchmoon!  Honestly he does not get enough credit we should be thanking him more for the payouts for this.  It's very generous and makes this thread fun and active.

And it's perfectly true please tell me if I make a mistake.  I appolgize if anytime I don't sound thankful.  Above re-reading I don't like how the tone sounds from me.  I just did not want to add to list unless phil or suchmoon.   But if you see a mistake in list or anything feel free to say something.  

And remember the ultimate goal of this thread is to speculate and most of all have some fun.  So hopefully it is a fun experience for most.

If I may:

+10.9 = alh

I am not as upbeat. I think the S7 and Avalon 6 push will mean serious jumps till 2016 at least.

+12.2 = philipma1957
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod

I am right next to the EternalWingsofGod since I am pretty much as clueless as the next guy I may as well be close as I can.


And maybe power restrictions are happening in China due to this:

http://news.yahoo.com/beijing-air-pollution-reaches-extremely-hazardous-levels-101208029.html

would be interesting to see a big drop in hash rate. tomorrow

Updated List:

+5.1    = Biodom
+6.0    = Last of the V8s (member registered March 15)
+6.6    = Tmdz (Jr Member - registered October 21)
+7.7    = ezeminer
+7.8    = VirosaGITS
+8.1    = wlefeve
+8.3    = The Young Turk
+8.4    = keystroke
+8.5    = valkir
+8.6    = Herbpean
+8.8    = tss
+9.2    = edonkey
+9.3    = Lituation
+9.4    = UfoRia (member registered September 22)
+9.8    = vortexz
+9.9    = mikestang
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.2  = cakir
+10.3  = Finksy
+10.4  = adaseb
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+10.9  = alh
+11.0  = mavericklm
+11.1  = Quickseller
+11.2  = dukeneptun
+11.4  = artibg (member resistered December 03, 2013)
+11.7  = Notlist3d
+12.2  = philipma1957
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod

Everyone should be updated and in right spot.  I did put myself in +11.7.   

No need to mass rush. But keep in mind that picks go from block 600 to block 1200.  So we not there but getting closer for those waiting twords end.

so there is a second peak? new rule? i would like to take +9.5 if not taken already

So can't delay any longer time for a pick, has to be between +9.7 & +11.3 Hmm...

+11.3 = RichBC


Thanks

You and rich have been added below.

There should not be any second guesses.  If someone picks something already taken I have been putting them in one close and check if that is want.  But there should be no second guesses or new rule.   If someone has picked multiple and I somehow fell for it please point it out.   I don't think it's happened though.

There are a LOT waiting till later to pick with the smaller sections. So that is kinda fun it does not fill up day 1 on picks.  This allows much more to play and not have to pick right off.

Updated List:

+5.1    = Biodom
+6.0    = Last of the V8s (member registered March 15)
+6.6    = Tmdz (Jr Member - registered October 21)
+7.7    = ezeminer
+7.8    = VirosaGITS
+8.1    = wlefeve
+8.3    = The Young Turk
+8.4    = keystroke
+8.5    = valkir
+8.6    = Herbpean
+8.8    = tss
+9.2    = edonkey
+9.3    = Lituation
+9.4    = UfoRia (member registered September 22)
+9.5    = Amph
+9.7    = ailikun
+9.8    = vortexz
+9.9    = mikestang
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.2  = cakir
+10.3  = Finksy
+10.4  = adaseb
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+10.9  = alh
+11.0  = mavericklm
+11.1  = Quickseller
+11.2  = dukeneptun
+11.3  = RichBC
+11.4  = artibg (member resistered December 03, 2013)
+11.5  = needmoney
+11.6  = Lboss
+11.7  = Notlist3d
+12.2  = philipma1957
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod
+12.5  = indiemax

+9.7 = ailikun

Thanks for doing this

May I pick +11.5 please ?
I think difficulty never decreased till block halving

Both of the to above have been added.  Good luck to all!

For those yet to pick keep in mind there is around 50 blocks left to do it within.  So don't wait to late :)

I only fixed your mistake for one time, because people choose picks that has already taken. I don't have any intention to take over whole competition thread.

Can I take +11.6 please?

+11.6  = Lboss

Thanks...

huge hash rate explode right in the last 5-6 remaining days, same happened on previous difficulty jump.
do we have a pattern here or it's just me ?

Hey guys, I see you gave my pick to tss

but I have recalculated and fancy 12.5% plus it helps it's not taken either  ;D

I'm not sure how that happened. Sorry  about that, I'm happy you found another spot.     Best of luck to you.

Please check your picks if there is a mistake let me know.

List updated below:
+5.1    = Biodom
+6.0    = Last of the V8s (member registered March 15)
+6.6    = Tmdz (Jr Member - registered October 21)
+7.7    = ezeminer
+7.8    = VirosaGITS
+8.1    = wlefeve
+8.3    = The Young Turk
+8.4    = keystroke
+8.5    = valkir
+8.6    = Herbpean
+8.8    = tss
+9.2    = edonkey
+9.3    = Lituation
+9.4    = UfoRia (member registered September 22)
+9.5    = Amph
+9.7    = ailikun
+9.8    = vortexz
+9.9    = mikestang
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.2  = cakir
+10.3  = Finksy
+10.4  = adaseb
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+10.9  = alh
+11.0  = mavericklm
+11.1  = Quickseller
+11.2  = dukeneptun
+11.3  = RichBC
+11.4  = artibg (member resistered December 03, 2013)
+11.5  = needmoney
+11.6  = Lboss
+11.7  = Notlist3d
+12.2  = philipma1957
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod
+12.5  = indiemax
+13.3   = d57heinz

Whats scary is i think we are starting the third leg up on this graph.  http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.png  You can see just how fast the network exploded with the asics coming on the scene. you can see by that graph  exactly the point when asics came on in early jan - march 2013.. Now with machines that are 4x-8x the efficiency, Im certain that the farms that are in the megawatts in size will replace and keep it full.. Most are in contract that they have to use x amount of power minimum to get the cheaper rate.  Going to make for an interesting time up to the halving no doubt:).

can see it very well here.  http://nextdifficulty.com/
short term hashrate as per wallet hit a new high (at least what ive observed)
725,137.02 TH/s
Net Hashrate
Network diff at that hashrate steady would be over 100 billion.

+13.3   = d57heinz

Best Regards
Doug
d57heinz

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   80,598,461,964 (+10.83%)
Adjust time:   After 834 Blocks, About 5.3 days
Hashrate(?):   582,613,242 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.4 minutes
6 blocks: 54.9 minutes
Updated:   10:0 (2.5 minutes ago)



we have 18 blocks for picks to end.

2016 - 1200 = 816    and we are at 834

https://blockchain.info/  shows bad numbers

386239 (Main Chain)   2015-12-01 14:59:15

386119 (Main Chain)   2015-12-01 00:13:46

121 in  15 hours !!!  fucking brutal     normal is 90       so for the first 15 hours today we are over 30%

If you are picking late go over 10 maybe over 12  even over 13%

I'm not sure how that happened. Sorry  about that, I'm happy you found another spot.     Best of luck to you.

Please check your picks if there is a mistake let me know.

List updated below:
+5.1    = Biodom
+6.0    = Last of the V8s (member registered March 15)
+6.6    = Tmdz (Jr Member - registered October 21)
+7.7    = ezeminer
+7.8    = VirosaGITS
+8.1    = wlefeve
+8.3    = The Young Turk
+8.4    = keystroke
+8.5    = valkir
+8.6    = Herbpean
+8.8    = tss
+9.2    = edonkey
+9.3    = Lituation
+9.4    = UfoRia (member registered September 22)
+9.5    = Amph
+9.7    = ailikun
+9.8    = vortexz
+9.9    = mikestang
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.2  = cakir
+10.3  = Finksy
+10.4  = adaseb
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+10.9  = alh
+11.0  = mavericklm
+11.1  = Quickseller
+11.2  = dukeneptun
+11.3  = RichBC
+11.4  = artibg (member resistered December 03, 2013)
+11.5  = needmoney
+11.6  = Lboss
+11.7  = Notlist3d
+12.2  = philipma1957
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod
+12.5  = indiemax
+13.3   = d57heinz

Everyone at this point with a pick should be on the list who's picked.  If you are not or a mistake has been made.  Please say something and let me know.

I just checked blockchain and at the 18 hour mark for today we are at 144 blocks which is 'norm' or 0%   with 6 hours left 170 to 180 blocks seems certain.

So we are not looking good for under 10%

we also past  1200 blocks so picks should be closed.

as of now

+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.2  = cakir
+10.3  = Finksy
+10.4  = adaseb
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+10.9  = alh
+11.0  = mavericklm
+11.1  = Quickseller
+11.2  = dukeneptun
+11.3  = RichBC
+11.4  = artibg (member resistered December 03, 2013)
+11.5  = needmoney
+11.6  = Lboss
+11.7  = Notlist3d
+12.2  = philipma1957
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod
+12.5  = indiemax
+13.3   = d57heinz

seem to have a shot while under 10% seem dead in the water.

Thanks  ;D

Not sure what the rules are and maybe I'm too late but I'll take 10.7 if I can.

you are too late as blocks mined are past 1200


2016-1200 = 816  we are now at :

After 801 Blocks, About 5.1 days

Actually it's just you. Bitmain has taken a personal dislike to you and is doing their level best to make sure you fail in the mining business. Unfortunately all the rest of us are affected too.....  :)

In case it wasn't obvious that was a 100% sarcastic comment and is entirely flippant in nature!!!

we are at 160 for the day.

with 2 hours or so left  so 170+  looks certain.

I actually think we will make a move slightly below 10% before this adjustment is all said and done. A little bit of that is wishful thinking, but we should be at the peak of added hashrate for the next 5 days which should bring this round just under 80,000,000,000.

And, for the record just because I posted that thought you better believe we are going over +12% this series!! lol

Thanks for posting it already.  Just got on. But no future picks this round. They are closed as block 1200 passed.

Best of luck to all.

Can I enter ?  I'd say 13.1% :P

hopefully that diff stop going up so fast but i wouldnt be surprised if it kept going up, up, up and away

edit:  my bad i'm too late, good luck to everyone

Sorry it went past block 1200.  So picking has been closed.   This current one will not have any more picks.

Price is not heading the way we want on conbase: 1 BTC = $349.86

I did see on coindeks gawminers CEO finnaly was charged by SEC -http://www.coindesk.com/gaw-faces-ponzi-scheme-charges-from-sec/ .  Hopefully this does not get mixed up in press with bitcoins.   Not sure how much "regular" press something like that will get.

I just hope we see it start to head back up again on price.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

10-28 --112    
10-29 --153
10-30 --167    
10-31 --149    
11-1  -- 150    
11-2  -- 158      
11-3 --  153    
11-4  -- 157    
11-5  -- 146    
11-6  -- 142    
11-7  -- 153    
11-8  -- 143    
11-9  -- 148    
11-10 --145


11-11 --169
11-12 --158
11-13 --161
11-14 -- 146
11-15 --156
11-16-- 175
11-17-- 146
11-18-- 156
11-19-- 131
11-20-- 169
11-21-- 178
11-22-- 170

The ones below are for this adjustment

11-23-- 162
11-24-- 154
11-25-- 152
11-26-- 174

11-27 --128

11-28-- 159
11-29--147
11-30--165
12-01--170

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+10.03%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   80,018,046,951 (+10.03%)
Adjust time:   After 763 Blocks, About 4.9 days
Hashrate(?):   573,196,340 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.3 minutes
Updated:   

if we avg 152 a day from now till the end of adjustment we will finish in 5 days and be around 10%

The price was at and below these levels not even a week ago, so I doubt that the recent drop is having all that large of an effect on the hashrate.

Thinking somewhat outside the box, someone may have miners that are only profitable to run above $345, but take a little bit of time to get running again, so there may be somewhat of a delay from the time the price is above $345, and when these miners get turned back on. If the owner of these miners thinks the price will be sustained above $345 then they may not be in a huge rush to get the miners turned back on, however if if price is only slightly above $345 but the owner thinks the price may fall below that price soon, then the owner may be more rushed to get the miner turned back on so they can realize a little bit of extra mining profits before the miner must again be turned off due to them being unprofitable.

I can see where your coming from on miners turning on.  At this point I think a lot if not most sell the miners off.   You can add a decent amount to ROI by selling miner once it's not profitable for you.  Someone with cheap or "free" electricity buy's it.

I can't imaging holding till a certain price as miner goes down in price over time.  I sell and re-invest on old miners.

I agree that most miners will be sold once they are unprofitable, however at one point they will need to be ultimately turned off. For example if you have electricity that is significantly below the cost of electricity elsewhere in the country, then you may have difficulty selling your miners are they approach being unprofitable (however you can probably be able to buy miners at prices that is lower as you can buy miners that is unprofitable to run elsewhere).

There is also the issue of it not being worth it to try to sell a miner. As you might have purchased miners for several thousand dollars, achieved ROI by mining for several months, then the best you could do via a sale is a few hundred dollars, then it might not be worth the hassle to attempt to sell them, so you might hold onto them after they become unprofitable to run with the hopes that the price will rise enough to make turning them back on profitable.

The 10 cent or 12 per kwatt guy  will need to sell much earlier then a 3 cent or 5 cent per kwatt guy.

For me I have high power costs.  I can only mine from oct 1 to may 1  as summer power prices kick in.

So I always sell most of my gear from April 1 to May 1.  The lower cost guy has an entirely different mindset then me and may mine gear so long it fully pays off.  I did have 4 s-3's in a 2.5 cent per kwatt spot.  I mined them for  14 months making a real  profit , when  the 500 usd price spike last month  I sold them off.

Electricity costs are complex for people who live in colder parts of the country/world, especially for people mining at home.

My electric costs are roughly 7.5 cents per kWh, however I am generally running the heat during the winter that costs money to run. When I was running my S3 and S5s in my apartment last winter, I was able to not have the heat on for the majority of the winter (and even had the windows open!), (although the S5s were very loud), so my effective cost to run the miners was less then 7.5 cents/kWh.

When I sold my miners in the spring, it was right around the time when I would typically neither have to have my hear nor my AC turned on, however with my miners running, I would need to have the AC on, so my effective cost would have been far above 7.5 kWh

Estimated Next Difficulty:    80,268,861,794 (+10.38%)
Adjust time:    After 752 Blocks, About 4.8 days
Hashrate(?):    578,011,772 GH/s

swinging it! big swings form now on.....

Well, halving just got pulled back to the 22nd: 2016-07-22 20:56:10 UTC (33 weeks, 2 days, 19 hours).

Is there a thread for betting when the halving will occur? If not, should we make one? :)

And price stabilized a little above 250 so at least not sinking right no.  No we need a upswing on price.

I'm really hoping this is not a new trend on 10 or more ... I like 5 much better.  Someone is making a lot of equipment right now, more likely a few are making.

 If we do 3.5%  we will drop  ½ a day an adjustment 8 or 9 days   so July 13 or 14

If we do 7.1%   from now until halving we will drop 1 day each adjustment.  so take off 16 or 17 days  you get July 5 or 6.

If we do 10.5%  we will drop 1.5 days  each adjustment     25 or 26 days   You get     June 26th or June 27th


Realistically  I would say June 20th to August 1st   is the range .         

What's the prize ? :D

It veries by week.  But a big thanks to suchmoon and ofcourse the ones that let theirs roll from last period into this one:

Mid day report :)

Bitwisdom still not the greatest:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:    80,380,180,393 (+10.53%)
Adjust time:    After 637 Blocks, About 4.1 days
Hashrate(?):    594,647,168 GH/s

BTC is pushing up a little at 261... so maybe tonight we will see even higher that would be nice.  I'm guessing we will see more once China wakes up.

I think you meant 361?  I know it was down around 250 for so long that you probably just got used to typing 2.  If you want to sell me any coins at 261 please send a pm.  ;D

I think we're going to see 10% increases all winter, there's a lot of gear coming online, price is strong, and people are getting excited about bitcoin.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   80,147,125,720 (+10.21%)
Adjust time:   After 629 Blocks, About 4.0 days
Hashrate(?):   591,279,011 GH/s

Still too volatile but estimated diff shows over %10. I hope it stays over 10 percent for this 4 days.

Thanks for spotting it!  Yes 361 and right now 364 on coinbase... so a little upwards motion but not a ton.   But I guess steady is not a bad thing.

I'm just hoping the next period we get a little break on these big difficulty changes.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    80,223,257,805 (+10.31%)
Adjust time:    After 592 Blocks, About 3.8 days
Hashrate(?):    601,812,660 GH/s

and price up ~10$ in the last 2hours!

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   79,797,434,159 (+9.73%)
Adjust time:   After 580 Blocks, About 3.7 days
Hashrate(?):   594,418,139 GH/s

right now it shows +9.73 % and I chose +9.8%, I am so close!
I know I can do this ! 8)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   79,561,418,542 (+9.40%)
Adjust time:   After 559 Blocks, About 3.6 days
Hashrate(?):   597,583,970 GH/s

User ''Uforia'' is going to win with +9.40

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   79,223,705,241 (+8.94%)
Adjust time:   After 549 Blocks, About 3.6 days
Hashrate(?):   592,819,862 GH/s

A drop of 46 basis points after 10 blocks? Yea bitcoinwisdom has some problems.

It went up and don to around 260 right now which still is not bad at all.   We will see I really hope difficulty goes down some but I'm thinking it will be high.

Not sue how high BTC will go up rest of this period I don't see it being massive.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

10-28 --112    
10-29 --153
10-30 --167    
10-31 --149    
11-1  -- 150    
11-2  -- 158      
11-3 --  153    
11-4  -- 157    
11-5  -- 146    
11-6  -- 142    
11-7  -- 153    
11-8  -- 143    
11-9  -- 148    
11-10 --145


11-11 --169
11-12 --158
11-13 --161
11-14 -- 146
11-15 --156
11-16-- 175
11-17-- 146
11-18-- 156
11-19-- 131
11-20-- 169
11-21-- 178
11-22-- 170

The ones below are for this adjustment

11-23-- 162
11-24-- 154
11-25-- 152
11-26-- 174

11-27 --128

11-28-- 159
11-29--147
11-30--165
12-01--170

12-02--158



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+8.46%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643



That 8.46 looks better then ten percent.

Yea! I would like 8.4. :D But I think I might have guessed too high now... We will see. This game is fun. :)

I,d love to lose and be wrong because i aimed too high, means the difficulty raise won't hit my BTC earning too much. In BTC/USD its pretty hard to foresee right now, the price is going all over. :S

I would like a rollover to draw more interest.  Prize will be .36 or so.


https://blockchain.info/blocks/1449105575959


386588 (Main Chain)   2015-12-03 23:44:05

386447 (Main Chain)   2015-12-03 00:01:47


this looks like a 142 day  that is a small negative.

477 blocks left.  boy three

135 days would be really nice.

These huge drops do not make a lot of sense.

Some could be miners going from burn in area to final host like this was a few day's ago - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1072474.msg13029692#msg13029692 . Mr. Lee I think claimed 3 ph he was getting from Avalon.  So maybe unplug to send to destination.

And on bitmain S7 they should be shipping soon to.  So a lot of moving miners from one place to another.   We will see if they come back online soon.  Or what is happening.  Price went into 350's again... so not the right way but still no big dive.

yeah but a drop from 160 to 141 is 15%  and that is about  75ph  not 3ph.

To make it easier to find the 3rd post has the last set of picks. Figure it would be easier to get to during this period.

And after this period is over much easier to look in case anyone want's to see picks.   I figure also there will go if winner and how much.  Or if goes on to next period rollovers have made this one kinda fun.  If we get another rollover Phil is right we will get even more people to view maybe become regulars.

Today was actually a negative day. Ended up being 3 blocks short of 144 so we are at -2% for yesterday

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

10-28 --112    
10-29 --153
10-30 --167    
10-31 --149    
11-1  -- 150    
11-2  -- 158      
11-3 --  153    
11-4  -- 157    
11-5  -- 146    
11-6  -- 142    
11-7  -- 153    
11-8  -- 143    
11-9  -- 148    
11-10 --145


11-11 --169
11-12 --158
11-13 --161
11-14 -- 146
11-15 --156
11-16-- 175
11-17-- 146
11-18-- 156
11-19-- 131
11-20-- 169
11-21-- 178
11-22-- 170

The ones below are for this adjustment

11-23-- 162
11-24-- 154
11-25-- 152
11-26-- 174

11-27 --128

11-28-- 159
11-29--147
11-30--165
12-01--170
12-02--158
12-03--141



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+8.93%)

About three days left.

I'm in no sure what's causing it but I will take it.  I really don't want to see near a 10 again.  I like 5's better I don't think we will get that lucky though.

Hopefully we do slow down some in next period.  And if BTC could get closer to 400 would be nice.

Some days this week were really bad. I remember seeing 6 blocks all solved in under 10 minutes.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   79,731,029,546 (+9.64%)
Adjust time:   After 426 Blocks, About 2.7 days
Hashrate(?):   565,048,853 GH/s

C'mon +11.5%  ;D ;D

Today I was watching cgminer and saw two blocks get solved with less that a minute between them, then one more a couple minutes later.   Crazy how fast they come sometimes.

My 9.9% is looking like a contender so far...

https://blockchain.info/blocks



386679 (Main Chain)   2015-12-04 12:48:18

386589 (Main Chain)   2015-12-04 00:06:35


91 blocks in 12 hours 48 minutes  should be 77  so looks like back up from 141 to 160 plus     this is the big swing pattern continuing .

note the 160 is a projection for end of day today.

Interesting on how big of swing, we have seen a variety that is for sure about this period.

The good news is price is heading right direction as of this moment.  Its around 361 so not to bad at all. 

Oh i missed this one damn i am extremely busy with my exams thats why totally forget about this thread .
@Phillipma thanks for the link next time i,ll enter in time

Nightly bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:    78,541,567,192 (+8.00%)
Adjust time:    After 319 Blocks, About 2.1 days
Hashrate(?):    542,464,033 GH/s

Price at 367 and heading up.... so rather nice movement.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

10-28 --112    
10-29 --153
10-30 --167    
10-31 --149    
11-1  -- 150    
11-2  -- 158      
11-3 --  153    
11-4  -- 157    
11-5  -- 146    
11-6  -- 142    
11-7  -- 153    
11-8  -- 143    
11-9  -- 148    
11-10 --145


11-11 --169
11-12 --158
11-13 --161
11-14 -- 146
11-15 --156
11-16-- 175
11-17-- 146
11-18-- 156
11-19-- 131
11-20-- 169
11-21-- 178
11-22-- 170

The ones below are for this adjustment

11-23-- 162
11-24-- 154
11-25-- 152
11-26-- 174

11-27 --128

11-28-- 159
11-29--147
11-30--165
12-01--170
12-02--158
12-03--141
12-04--154


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+7.79%)

About two days left.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    78,282,330,214 (+7.64%)
Adjust time:    After 309 Blocks, About 2.0 days
Hashrate(?):    530,905,391 GH/s

looks good, but the danger of hitting 10% or more is still here :P

no 9.5% max .
not enough blocks left.

we would need a 180 day and then pace at 180 for the rest of the blocks.  very hard to do.

But not impossible! if 2 or more manufacturers upgrade a bit more.

Also the price could ''help'' with a big jump. Almost hitting 370 on btc-e

Last 6blocks under 20mins, last 5 under 9minutes...

Short term variance... pretty much impossible to sustain. Phil knows his daily numbers, I don't think we are hitting 10% this time.

Now the question is if we hit between 8 and 10, or below 8 where the chance of rollover is much higher. I'm rooting for a rollover :)

A rollover would be fun but I must admit I want an 8.4 as I never played this game before. :) How is the prize determined?

if your pick is 8.4  you get all numbers from 8.40 to 8.49  we use www.bitcoinwisdom.com as the number to match

In case anyone saw it I deleted a post.  I ask in first post to keep it civil.  If you are name calling, or just putting down someone I delete it.

I don't pick sides it's all treated equal.  Please just keep it civil, and have fun.  This is a fun thread.... really.

Thanks Phil, but I meant what you meant when you said:

okay misunderstood.

Normal prize = 0.1
We rolled over due to a miss so 0.1 + 0.1 = 0.2  and there was a side contest in which two winners of it  tossed in .008 each so this contest is   for

0.2 + .016 = 0.216 btc    I added if we roll over we would go to 0.36  that is simply bad math or a tired 58 year guy that can't always

remember  info   so if we roll over    we go from 0.216 to 0.316 btc  .

My bad on the math.    I can tell you this

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+8.34%) >>>> You are really close to it and may win the 0.216 BTC this time


Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   78,787,307,274 (+8.34%)
Adjust time:   After 231 Blocks, About 1.5 days

It was looking bleak for my +8.1 early but a few long blocks here, and there toward the finish and I may have a chance! Come on give me some luck this round!  ;D

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   78,596,327,861 (+8.08%)
Adjust time:   After 228 Blocks, About 1.5 days

Slowly going down still:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:    78,516,647,622 (+7.97%)
Adjust time:    After 224 Blocks, About 1.4 days
Hashrate(?):    555,650,917 GH/s

Nice to not see 10 on there.   Even though it's still higher then I like 10 just is to much.  Price is around 278 which is pretty good.  Were making some gains there which makes me happy.

I'm sure you mean $378, right?

You seem to occasionally drop $100 in your posts. Maybe you have a subconscious wish for a lower price?

I have to admit that as a hobbyist hodler I'd prefer a lower price, and the corresponding lower difficulty. At least until my S7s ROI ;)

 I  was just going to ask op if he has a weird type of dyslexia as I noticed the error.

Maybe he is on a tablet they can be worse for typing.

I was so use to typing 200 numbers for so long, seems I type it without thinking sometimes.  I just was so use with 230 seemed I type it without thinking.   I have done this mistake enough it's getting on my nerves on amount. 

And I've been staring at receipts for a bit did not help.  For my fan that broke I needed to get a receipt but luckily I found it.  So now I can call Monday and try to get them to repair it.  I'm hoping they will just make me send in motor.

+7.7    = ezeminer
+7.8    = VirosaGITS
+8.1    = wlefeve
+8.3    = The Young Turk
+8.4    = keystroke
+8.5    = valkir
+8.6    = Herbpean
+8.8    = tss
+9.2    = edonkey
+9.3    = Lituation
+9.4    = UfoRia (member registered September 22)
+9.5    = Amph
+9.7    = ailikun
+9.8    = vortexz
+9.9    = mikestang


I am thinking the guys above are closest

 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+8.19%)

we have 209 blocks left   and we are pushing for over 160 today based on

https://blockchain.info/blocks

122 blocks in 17 hours 20 minutes rather then  104 so 18 over for the day  which is a 160-165 pace.

 so we are drifting towards 9 not 8

coinbase is at 377

yeah looks like i was way over estimating this round.. With that crazy cpl days we had i thought surely it would soar.. I found this site today:)  maybe of some use to us  lots of good looking graphs and data.. puts it into perspective just who it is increasing our hashrate..  ;)


http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/6m?c=m&r=week&t=a

Best Regards
d57heinz

Were approaching my short term hope.  I'm hoping within a few months (hopefully much sooner) we see BTC over 400. I kinda like the slow and steady moving it makes me feel like the floor wont just drop.  But I know it still could.

This was a interesting one I though for sure we were over 10.  But looks like a little better, I'm still not sure if I will consider close to 8 a win.  I want to see next period go to even less... hopefully.

    I think what hurt both of our picking styles is these big up and down moves.  It really looks like someone turns gear on and off > And a big piece of gear /farm/mine  maybe  20-30ph.
  So the ups and the lows not exactly good for making predictions. There was a lot of nice 1 watt gear and .6 watt gear.  

To have it sit in a building complex like this story  talks about is not farfetched.


http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-built-ghost-town-kilamba-angola-2012-7?op=1



BTW more then 147 blocks so far today at the 21 hour mark  we should be at 126  so  + 21 for the day. we are moving closer to 9%

https://blockchain.info/blocks


Height   
386889 (Main Chain)   2015-12-05 20:39:53   

386742 (Main Chain)   2015-12-05 00:00:46

147 made should be 126    + 21

Coinbase is at high 380's it's kinda fighting to get up to 390's.  Hopefully it makes it.  Guess we will see.

But it's a good day as far as price. Hopefully China wakes up and decides it's worth more.  But guess we will see.

we did do 174-175 blocks


https://blockchain.info/blocks/1449274418041


386916 (Main Chain)   2015-12-05 23:46:53


386742 (Main Chain)   2015-12-05 00:00:46


174/175 is 30 or so over 'norm' of 144

so we may slide over 9%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+8.78%)   it is more like +9.01


Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   79,108,345,960 (+8.78%)
Adjust time:   After 156 Blocks, About 23.6 hours
Hashrate(?):   565,138,108 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.2 minutes
6 blocks: 54.4 minutes
Updated:   19:15 (56.0 seconds ago)


with 156 blocks left getting over 10% would be unlikely .

I cap us at  8.0 for the low  9.7%  for the top

 most likely in the 8.6 to 9.2 area


good luck to anyone close!!

China is awake and were at 395 on price.  So close to the 400 I want to see.

Maybe later ... I hope.  Still nice to see 395 even.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    78,772,553,950 (+8.32%)
Adjust time:    After 124 Blocks, About 18.6 hours
Hashrate(?):    565,048,853 GH/s

it is what it is, but the price is going up! so no relax in the near future

Surely after 173 blocks today we will be slightly lower tomorrow.  Hoping we stay right around this area it's been hovering for my pick, but also for the lowest possible adjustment!  I also can't see these 8-10%+ increases sustaining for the next few months, but crazier things have happened and still new hardware expected to launch Q1 2016.

if price moves over 400 diff will move at 7% or more next jump.

Nice price  ;D

http://i.snag.gy/jrq4N.jpg

yes I see 500 to follow by years end.  I also see 600 sometime near my birthday (late Jan)

remember we were once over 1150.

 So it is not impossible to think that 500 or 600 are right around the corner.

Hey $100 climbs a month sounds good to me!  We'd be looking pretty dandy going into halving.

It sure is nice to see happened much sooner then I thought it would. But I won't complain about that.

Bitwisdom going up with all the price going up it looks like:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:    79,281,405,131 (+9.02%)
Adjust time:    After 90 Blocks, About 13.3 hours
Hashrate(?):    569,868,050 GH/s

and price dropped back to 387 on coinbase  and  diff is


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   79,043,157,001 >>>>>>> (+8.69%)
Adjust time:   After 68 Blocks, About 10.2 hours
Hashrate(?):   566,484,401 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.9 minutes
3 blocks: 26.9 minutes
6 blocks: 53.7 minutes
Updated:   8:35 (2.3 minutes ago)

today on blockchain blocks are moving

https://blockchain.info/blocks

Height                    Time   
387004 (Main Chain)   2015-12-06 13:15:29
386917 (Main Chain)   2015-12-06 00:35:15

88 blocks in the time  of 13:40 hours we should be at 72

So basically 9% looks pretty much like a good spot to be in.

+7.7    = ezeminer
+7.8    = VirosaGITS
+8.1    = wlefeve
+8.3    = The Young Turk
+8.4    = keystroke
+8.5    = valkir
+8.6    = Herbpean
+8.8    = tss
+9.2    = edonkey
+9.3    = Lituation
+9.4    = UfoRia (member registered September 22)
+9.5    = Amph
+9.7    = ailikun
+9.8    = vortexz
+9.9    = mikestang


looks like the winner will be in the list above.

good luck!

You missed +8.9

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   79,184,340,692 (+8.89%)
Adjust time:   After 56 Blocks, About 8.3 hours

this is  the final list.  the ones in bold are closest to a win

(+9.04%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   79,297,706,503 (+9.04%)
Adjust time:   After 45 Blocks, About 6.7 hours
Hashrate(?):   574,940,195 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.9 minutes
3 blocks: 26.8 minutes
6 blocks: 53.5 minutes
Updated:   11:35 (2.0 minutes ago)

Some interesting gaps in the Danger Zone.... Could still be a roll-over?

Rich

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   79,165,250,160 (+8.86%)
Adjust time:   After 31 Blocks, About 4.6 hours
Hashrate(?):   583,014,581 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.9 minutes
3 blocks: 26.6 minutes
6 blocks: 53.3 minutes



Getting closer here. The question is will there be a spike?

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo, it can't be 8.8% lol

perhaps tss would be a gent and let it roll over if it is ;) ;D

It is approaching.  I don't think we will see a huge  spike just not enough time in my eyes.

Price is at 395 thought which makes it very nice as far as value.

we were   at diff 72    price 324 on nov 23rd
we will be at diff 79    price 390 on dec 6th

the above  pattern works well    under 10% if diff over 20% in price!


Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   78,926,239,075 (+8.53%)
Adjust time:   After 28 Blocks, About 4.2 hours
Hashrate(?):   574,826,826 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.9 minutes
3 blocks: 26.9 minutes
6 blocks: 53.7 minutes
Updated:   14:55 (2.8 minutes ago)

wow First time I get a good chance to win  ;D

Estimated Next Difficulty:   78,846,908,022 (+8.42%)
Adjust time:   After 15 Blocks, About 2.2 hours

start up all your gear  :P

Only 6 blocks left!

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   78,934,160,992 (+8.54%)
Adjust time:   After 6 Blocks, About 53.8 minutes
Hashrate(?):   582,044,547 GH/s

Just wait the change is going to be +8.7 and no one will win  :P

DONE!!

[2015-12-06 23:30:40] Network difficulty changed to 79.1G (566.2Ph/s)


F2Pool payouts down to 0.00610345 BTC / Thash/s

Damm again, i was so close !!!!

Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s

Good call, sorry no prize for such a late guess :)

0.316 BTC for the next round, which is I think the highest reward we've ever had.

well how about that it slid in between.

Difficulty History

Date                   Difficulty          Change    Hash Rate

Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s   46 ph in gear boost damn! that is a lot of s-7s

Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s         49 ph in gear boost  s-7's and avalon 6's  = 95ph wow!
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014   5,006,860,589   17.80%   35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014   4,250,217,920   11.39%   30,424,245 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

i was closer!!! haha.. it was above 8.8 till the last moments.  oh well.  looking forward to the next one.  big money prizes starting :-)

Interesting kinda nice to see it move on to next round.  Makes it quite fun and should get quite a bit of attention that kinda coin on a guess.  

I still don't know if I should be happy with 8. something or if I should be worried.  Thread will be open and give some time to discuss :).  But eventually it will be locked and conversations will move to phil's thread - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1278803.0

If the reward starts to approach your net worth, you'd warn us right?

We don't want to bankrupt you ;)

No worries:

https://blockchain.info/address/1Nz1eoPMqBUSRwgQCS5fiocrZk4VDeG6wi

Nice. You've reserved the prize.

It's almost like a real contest!

Great fun guys ,keep it up ;D

Difficulty increases playing tricks on us lately, huh ?
Noone seems to guess it :P

Yeah amazing how it snuck into an empty spot.

Ahhh, so close! Well that was fun.

next one will be good it is the best prize ever

.316 btc and 1 compac  usb stick

Should get a good amount of interest!   I am locking this thread.  Feel free to continue discussions in phil's new thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1278803.0 for current period.