Diff thread Nov 23 to Dec 7 Set up stage- Picks CLOSED!

[notlist3d]

Not sure what the rules are and maybe I'm too late but I'll take 10.7 if I can.

you are too late as blocks mined are past 1200


2016-1200 = 816  we are now at :

After 801 Blocks, About 5.1 days

Thanks for posting it already.  Just got on. But no future picks this round. They are closed as block 1200 passed.

Best of luck to all.

[1715317922]

1715317922

[1715317922]

1715317922

[1715317922]

1715317922

[1715317922]

1715317922

[fr4nkthetank]

Can I enter ?  I'd say 13.1%

hopefully that diff stop going up so fast but i wouldnt be surprised if it kept going up, up, up and away

edit:  my bad i'm too late, good luck to everyone

[notlist3d]

Can I enter ?  I'd say 13.1%

hopefully that diff stop going up so fast but i wouldnt be surprised if it kept going up, up, up and away

Sorry it went past block 1200.  So picking has been closed.   This current one will not have any more picks.

[notlist3d]

Price is not heading the way we want on conbase: 1 BTC = $349.86

I did see on coindeks gawminers CEO finnaly was charged by SEC -http://www.coindesk.com/gaw-faces-ponzi-scheme-charges-from-sec/ .  Hopefully this does not get mixed up in press with bitcoins.   Not sure how much "regular" press something like that will get.

I just hope we see it start to head back up again on price.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

10-28 --112    
10-29 --153
10-30 --167    
10-31 --149    
11-1  -- 150    
11-2  -- 158      
11-3 --  153    
11-4  -- 157    
11-5  -- 146    
11-6  -- 142    
11-7  -- 153    
11-8  -- 143    
11-9  -- 148    
11-10 --145


11-11 --169
11-12 --158
11-13 --161
11-14 -- 146
11-15 --156
11-16-- 175
11-17-- 146
11-18-- 156
11-19-- 131
11-20-- 169
11-21-- 178
11-22-- 170

The ones below are for this adjustment

11-23-- 162
11-24-- 154
11-25-- 152
11-26-- 174

11-27 --128

11-28-- 159
11-29--147
11-30--165
12-01--170

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+10.03%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   80,018,046,951 (+10.03%)
Adjust time:   After 763 Blocks, About 4.9 days
Hashrate(?):   573,196,340 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.3 minutes
Updated:   

if we avg 152 a day from now till the end of adjustment we will finish in 5 days and be around 10%

[Quickseller]

Price is not heading the way we want on conbase: 1 BTC = $349.86

I did see on coindeks gawminers CEO finnaly was charged by SEC -http://www.coindesk.com/gaw-faces-ponzi-scheme-charges-from-sec/ .  Hopefully this does not get mixed up in press with bitcoins.   Not sure how much "regular" press something like that will get.

I just hope we see it start to head back up again on price.

The price was at and below these levels not even a week ago, so I doubt that the recent drop is having all that large of an effect on the hashrate.

Thinking somewhat outside the box, someone may have miners that are only profitable to run above $345, but take a little bit of time to get running again, so there may be somewhat of a delay from the time the price is above $345, and when these miners get turned back on. If the owner of these miners thinks the price will be sustained above $345 then they may not be in a huge rush to get the miners turned back on, however if if price is only slightly above $345 but the owner thinks the price may fall below that price soon, then the owner may be more rushed to get the miner turned back on so they can realize a little bit of extra mining profits before the miner must again be turned off due to them being unprofitable.

[notlist3d]

Price is not heading the way we want on conbase: 1 BTC = $349.86

I did see on coindeks gawminers CEO finnaly was charged by SEC -http://www.coindesk.com/gaw-faces-ponzi-scheme-charges-from-sec/ .  Hopefully this does not get mixed up in press with bitcoins.   Not sure how much "regular" press something like that will get.

I just hope we see it start to head back up again on price.

The price was at and below these levels not even a week ago, so I doubt that the recent drop is having all that large of an effect on the hashrate.

Thinking somewhat outside the box, someone may have miners that are only profitable to run above $345, but take a little bit of time to get running again, so there may be somewhat of a delay from the time the price is above $345, and when these miners get turned back on. If the owner of these miners thinks the price will be sustained above $345 then they may not be in a huge rush to get the miners turned back on, however if if price is only slightly above $345 but the owner thinks the price may fall below that price soon, then the owner may be more rushed to get the miner turned back on so they can realize a little bit of extra mining profits before the miner must again be turned off due to them being unprofitable.

I can see where your coming from on miners turning on.  At this point I think a lot if not most sell the miners off.   You can add a decent amount to ROI by selling miner once it's not profitable for you.  Someone with cheap or "free" electricity buy's it.

I can't imaging holding till a certain price as miner goes down in price over time.  I sell and re-invest on old miners.

[Quickseller]

Price is not heading the way we want on conbase: 1 BTC = $349.86

I did see on coindeks gawminers CEO finnaly was charged by SEC -http://www.coindesk.com/gaw-faces-ponzi-scheme-charges-from-sec/ .  Hopefully this does not get mixed up in press with bitcoins.   Not sure how much "regular" press something like that will get.

I just hope we see it start to head back up again on price.

The price was at and below these levels not even a week ago, so I doubt that the recent drop is having all that large of an effect on the hashrate.

Thinking somewhat outside the box, someone may have miners that are only profitable to run above $345, but take a little bit of time to get running again, so there may be somewhat of a delay from the time the price is above $345, and when these miners get turned back on. If the owner of these miners thinks the price will be sustained above $345 then they may not be in a huge rush to get the miners turned back on, however if if price is only slightly above $345 but the owner thinks the price may fall below that price soon, then the owner may be more rushed to get the miner turned back on so they can realize a little bit of extra mining profits before the miner must again be turned off due to them being unprofitable.

I can see where your coming from on miners turning on.  At this point I think a lot if not most sell the miners off.   You can add a decent amount to ROI by selling miner once it's not profitable for you.  Someone with cheap or "free" electricity buy's it.

I can't imaging holding till a certain price as miner goes down in price over time.  I sell and re-invest on old miners.

I agree that most miners will be sold once they are unprofitable, however at one point they will need to be ultimately turned off. For example if you have electricity that is significantly below the cost of electricity elsewhere in the country, then you may have difficulty selling your miners are they approach being unprofitable (however you can probably be able to buy miners at prices that is lower as you can buy miners that is unprofitable to run elsewhere).

There is also the issue of it not being worth it to try to sell a miner. As you might have purchased miners for several thousand dollars, achieved ROI by mining for several months, then the best you could do via a sale is a few hundred dollars, then it might not be worth the hassle to attempt to sell them, so you might hold onto them after they become unprofitable to run with the hopes that the price will rise enough to make turning them back on profitable.

[philipma1957]

Price is not heading the way we want on conbase: 1 BTC = $349.86

I did see on coindeks gawminers CEO finnaly was charged by SEC -http://www.coindesk.com/gaw-faces-ponzi-scheme-charges-from-sec/ .  Hopefully this does not get mixed up in press with bitcoins.   Not sure how much "regular" press something like that will get.

I just hope we see it start to head back up again on price.

The price was at and below these levels not even a week ago, so I doubt that the recent drop is having all that large of an effect on the hashrate.

Thinking somewhat outside the box, someone may have miners that are only profitable to run above $345, but take a little bit of time to get running again, so there may be somewhat of a delay from the time the price is above $345, and when these miners get turned back on. If the owner of these miners thinks the price will be sustained above $345 then they may not be in a huge rush to get the miners turned back on, however if if price is only slightly above $345 but the owner thinks the price may fall below that price soon, then the owner may be more rushed to get the miner turned back on so they can realize a little bit of extra mining profits before the miner must again be turned off due to them being unprofitable.

I can see where your coming from on miners turning on.  At this point I think a lot if not most sell the miners off.   You can add a decent amount to ROI by selling miner once it's not profitable for you.  Someone with cheap or "free" electricity buy's it.

I can't imaging holding till a certain price as miner goes down in price over time.  I sell and re-invest on old miners.

I agree that most miners will be sold once they are unprofitable, however at one point they will need to be ultimately turned off. For example if you have electricity that is significantly below the cost of electricity elsewhere in the country, then you may have difficulty selling your miners are they approach being unprofitable (however you can probably be able to buy miners at prices that is lower as you can buy miners that is unprofitable to run elsewhere).

There is also the issue of it not being worth it to try to sell a miner. As you might have purchased miners for several thousand dollars, achieved ROI by mining for several months, then the best you could do via a sale is a few hundred dollars, then it might not be worth the hassle to attempt to sell them, so you might hold onto them after they become unprofitable to run with the hopes that the price will rise enough to make turning them back on profitable.

The 10 cent or 12 per kwatt guy  will need to sell much earlier then a 3 cent or 5 cent per kwatt guy.

For me I have high power costs.  I can only mine from oct 1 to may 1  as summer power prices kick in.

So I always sell most of my gear from April 1 to May 1.  The lower cost guy has an entirely different mindset then me and may mine gear so long it fully pays off.  I did have 4 s-3's in a 2.5 cent per kwatt spot.  I mined them for  14 months making a real  profit , when  the 500 usd price spike last month  I sold them off.

[Quickseller]

Price is not heading the way we want on conbase: 1 BTC = $349.86

I did see on coindeks gawminers CEO finnaly was charged by SEC -http://www.coindesk.com/gaw-faces-ponzi-scheme-charges-from-sec/ .  Hopefully this does not get mixed up in press with bitcoins.   Not sure how much "regular" press something like that will get.

I just hope we see it start to head back up again on price.

The price was at and below these levels not even a week ago, so I doubt that the recent drop is having all that large of an effect on the hashrate.

Thinking somewhat outside the box, someone may have miners that are only profitable to run above $345, but take a little bit of time to get running again, so there may be somewhat of a delay from the time the price is above $345, and when these miners get turned back on. If the owner of these miners thinks the price will be sustained above $345 then they may not be in a huge rush to get the miners turned back on, however if if price is only slightly above $345 but the owner thinks the price may fall below that price soon, then the owner may be more rushed to get the miner turned back on so they can realize a little bit of extra mining profits before the miner must again be turned off due to them being unprofitable.

I can see where your coming from on miners turning on.  At this point I think a lot if not most sell the miners off.   You can add a decent amount to ROI by selling miner once it's not profitable for you.  Someone with cheap or "free" electricity buy's it.

I can't imaging holding till a certain price as miner goes down in price over time.  I sell and re-invest on old miners.

I agree that most miners will be sold once they are unprofitable, however at one point they will need to be ultimately turned off. For example if you have electricity that is significantly below the cost of electricity elsewhere in the country, then you may have difficulty selling your miners are they approach being unprofitable (however you can probably be able to buy miners at prices that is lower as you can buy miners that is unprofitable to run elsewhere).

There is also the issue of it not being worth it to try to sell a miner. As you might have purchased miners for several thousand dollars, achieved ROI by mining for several months, then the best you could do via a sale is a few hundred dollars, then it might not be worth the hassle to attempt to sell them, so you might hold onto them after they become unprofitable to run with the hopes that the price will rise enough to make turning them back on profitable.

The 10 cent or 12 per kwatt guy  will need to sell much earlier then a 3 cent or 5 cent per kwatt guy.

For me I have high power costs.  I can only mine from oct 1 to may 1  as summer power prices kick in.

So I always sell most of my gear from April 1 to May 1.  The lower cost guy has an entirely different mindset then me and may mine gear so long it fully pays off.  I did have 4 s-3's in a 2.5 cent per kwatt spot.  I mined them for  14 months making a real  profit , when  the 500 usd price spike last month  I sold them off.

Electricity costs are complex for people who live in colder parts of the country/world, especially for people mining at home.

My electric costs are roughly 7.5 cents per kWh, however I am generally running the heat during the winter that costs money to run. When I was running my S3 and S5s in my apartment last winter, I was able to not have the heat on for the majority of the winter (and even had the windows open!), (although the S5s were very loud), so my effective cost to run the miners was less then 7.5 cents/kWh.

When I sold my miners in the spring, it was right around the time when I would typically neither have to have my hear nor my AC turned on, however with my miners running, I would need to have the AC on, so my effective cost would have been far above 7.5 kWh

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    80,268,861,794 (+10.38%)
Adjust time:    After 752 Blocks, About 4.8 days
Hashrate(?):    578,011,772 GH/s

swinging it! big swings form now on.....

[keystroke]

Well, halving just got pulled back to the 22nd: 2016-07-22 20:56:10 UTC (33 weeks, 2 days, 19 hours).

Is there a thread for betting when the halving will occur? If not, should we make one?

[notlist3d]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    80,268,861,794 (+10.38%)
Adjust time:    After 752 Blocks, About 4.8 days
Hashrate(?):    578,011,772 GH/s

swinging it! big swings form now on.....

And price stabilized a little above 250 so at least not sinking right no.  No we need a upswing on price.

I'm really hoping this is not a new trend on 10 or more ... I like 5 much better.  Someone is making a lot of equipment right now, more likely a few are making.

[philipma1957]

Well, halving just got pulled back to the 22nd: 2016-07-22 20:56:10 UTC (33 weeks, 2 days, 19 hours).

Is there a thread for betting when the halving will occur? If not, should we make one?

 If we do 3.5%  we will drop  ½ a day an adjustment 8 or 9 days   so July 13 or 14

If we do 7.1%   from now until halving we will drop 1 day each adjustment.  so take off 16 or 17 days  you get July 5 or 6.

If we do 10.5%  we will drop 1.5 days  each adjustment     25 or 26 days   You get     June 26th or June 27th


Realistically  I would say June 20th to August 1st   is the range .         

[satashito]

What's the prize ?

[notlist3d]

What's the prize ?

It veries by week.  But a big thanks to suchmoon and ofcourse the ones that let theirs roll from last period into this one:

17 blocks  or 2.5-3 hours to go until picks open. If we learned anything from the last time - let's not rush all at once . Picking your guess towards the end is likely to be more accurate.

The prize this time is

0.216 BTC

due to rollover from the previous contest and both philipma1957 and alh donating their winnings from the quick quiz (0.008 each - I rounded it up from 0.007-something). Thanks guys!

[notlist3d]

Mid day report

Bitwisdom still not the greatest:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:    80,380,180,393 (+10.53%)
Adjust time:    After 637 Blocks, About 4.1 days
Hashrate(?):    594,647,168 GH/s

BTC is pushing up a little at 261... so maybe tonight we will see even higher that would be nice.  I'm guessing we will see more once China wakes up.

[Mikestang]

BTC is pushing up a little at 261... so maybe tonight we will see even higher that would be nice. 

I think you meant 361?  I know it was down around 250 for so long that you probably just got used to typing 2.  If you want to sell me any coins at 261 please send a pm. 

I think we're going to see 10% increases all winter, there's a lot of gear coming online, price is strong, and people are getting excited about bitcoin.

[ingiltere]

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   80,147,125,720 (+10.21%)
Adjust time:   After 629 Blocks, About 4.0 days
Hashrate(?):   591,279,011 GH/s

Still too volatile but estimated diff shows over %10. I hope it stays over 10 percent for this 4 days.

[notlist3d]

BTC is pushing up a little at 261... so maybe tonight we will see even higher that would be nice. 

I think you meant 361?  I know it was down around 250 for so long that you probably just got used to typing 2.  If you want to sell me any coins at 261 please send a pm. 

I think we're going to see 10% increases all winter, there's a lot of gear coming online, price is strong, and people are getting excited about bitcoin.

Thanks for spotting it!  Yes 361 and right now 364 on coinbase... so a little upwards motion but not a ton.   But I guess steady is not a bad thing.

I'm just hoping the next period we get a little break on these big difficulty changes.