Bitcoin Forum

Let me be perfectly clear. I do not think Satoshi wants to harm Bitcoin.

However, as a community we need to think rationally about the greatest threats to the Bitcoin project and the best way to mitigate those potential threats. Please treat this as healthy critique to provoke discussion to make bitcoin stronger, not as an attack or proposal.

When I introduce people to Bitcoin, I'm often frustratingly told it is a pyramid scheme because the early adopter(s) own such a high share. I optimistically counter that Satoshi foresaw this and mined as many early bitcoins as he could without the intention of spending them to protect the future integrity from such an unequal wealth distribution.

While I have my doubts about the latest 'unveiling' of Satoshi - it has made me acutely aware we have still no idea who owns these early mined coins, nor their intentions. These untouched coins, if ever they became active, could have huge potential to create instability and damage to Bitcoin. An individual's personal circumstances and motivations can change unpredicatably, people can be put under duress. For example if somebody found out you were Satoshi and threatened harm to you or your family unless you did everything in your power to destroy the bitcoin project, wouldn't you?

The early mined 'untouched' bitcoins represent, to me, the biggest the potential source of damage to the entire project that can be weilded by one individual. The bigger the project becomes, the greater a liability they become.

One possible solition, to safeguard the future of Bitcoin, could be to build into the protocol a rule which prevents these early bitcoins from ever being spendable after a certain date. This gives Satoshi an opportunity to move a quantity (or all the coins) of his choosing IF he wants (or still even has the private keys) to.

That way, the potential weakness is resolved now, rather than a cloud which hangs over the project and potentially threatens it indefinitely.

I do not think Satoshi will act against the best interests of the project, but if there is a risk, no matter how small, I think we have to consider the options to make Bitcoin as succesful as it possibly can be.

how can you know what his intentions are when nobody even really knows who this guy is?

I dont see what harm he could do. He can only dump those coins and make cheaper for us non early adopters to buy more. Bitcoin is revolution of money and even if he really want to harm Bitcoin manipulating price, he cant do that in long run. In my opinion, it would be lot better if that dump happen than it stays unknown if he have that keys (or even if he is still alive). We had year of low price and Bitcoin survived, i bet bitcoin would survive even lower price and longer period of that no sweat.

Let's do a thought experiment.

15 years from now, Bitcoins and US dollar are the world's two biggest currencies. Bitcoins are worth $1m each and used day to day by approximately 30% of the world's population.

Out of the blue, Satoshi's original bitcoins start being moved en mass to bitcoin laundries.

What are the economic implications?

Potentially catastrophic I would imagine.

did you ever read just one word from satoshi?



hint: no

at 1M per coin , with around 21M(but probably much less, around 18M) the market cap would be 18T with a much better stability than what we have now, so this mean that demand is fucking crazy at that point

even in the case that the market will not hold a dump of 1/18 the worst case would still put us in good range of value, that will recover quickly

but besides this why he should kill his own fortune like this? i mean if he really want to sell he will do it slowly, not in one single volley, that would be really stupid

That would just ensure that even my children could buy some cheap coins and Bitcoin would recover with time no sweat. In past even worse than that was happened in world economy. Some ppl would lose and jump from roof top like at great depression and some would buy cheap and earn money so they would jump in new swimming pool. Anyway, i dont think that would destroy or even badly harm Bitcoin in long run.


EDIT: typo

only harm i think he could possibly cause to bitcoin would be lowering the price drastically by selling all of his bitcoins lol.

Other than that he really can't do much to harm the network.

From an article that i read today i saw that satoshi has somewhere more than 1 million bitcoins which worth ~half billion dollar so he has big power to manipulate the price or anything else.

This suggestion is nonsense.  It is ridiculous to even talk about it.

Bitcoin is a consensus based system.  You can't make the early bitcoins "unspendable" unless you have consensus from all the full nodes on the system.  It is a forking change.  If you implement such a change without consensus from all the full nodes, you'll just fork the blockchain into "original bitcoin" and "bitcoin that steals from users".  I know which fork I'd choose.

You aren't going to get consensus on this idea.  I would be against it, and I am aware of many other full node operators that you are not going to be able to convince to run your thieving software.  Therefore, talking about it is a lot like talking about how much we wish that we could go hours at a time without oxygen.

Noone can tell if he realy have keys from those addresses or even if he is still alive. They can speculate this or that but till funds move, they can tell shit.

But some facts about some blogs that he used are real and can not be faked easily, and about the keys yeah we can only speculate.

And suddenly this new story about Craig S Wright being Satoshi seems to be shaking the community. Imagine that this is all a plot to take down BTC. The real Satoshi wouldn't be interested in taking down bitcoin. So, this was all done to set the community on fire. we only will be sure that Craig is the guy as soon as he present some real evidences.

OK, let's do another thought experiment. Let's not focus too much on satoshi, but actually the 1m early mined bitcoins.

Lets imagine 30 years have passed and by this point, Bitcoin is the universally used world currency.

The vast majority of bitcoins have been spent many times, and are widely distributed between billions of addresses.

Let's say some hacker gets access an old online storage service used by Satoshi that contains his encrypted keys. By this point the encryption is long ceased to be useful, with new quantum computers and processing power.

A rogue individual or group, perhaps a terrorist cell, suddenly owns 5% of all the money in the world.

As unlikely, or far away as this may seem, it surely is a scenario that requires some consideration?

Satoshi does not have the right to change the bitcoin protocol any more. What he can do is to dump all his coins, that will cause a mini crash of bitcoin.

Do we even know if these early addresses are still accessible?
I mean, for all we know, a big chunk of them could be lost...

Exactly my point.

They may well be inaccessible forever, but there is no way of knowing.

And one day they potentially become a major liability.

You would think if he had access to that address he would have used it by now.  Chances are even if he does still have control of them he isn't going to ever use them.  Unless we get all conspiracy theory and start thinking it's a government that owns it and is just bidding it's time until Bitcoin has full adoption.

Satoshi has no more control over bitcoin than you do. It is possible that he has a large stash of coins that could be dumped and cause a temporary dip in price. But the network is beyond anyone's control.

I am not as sure with him having no control. He has lots of money and lots and lots of knowledge about Bitcoin. Money and knowledge are both power, and he has a lot. Not to mention the impact of his opinions and how much he could influence by just appearing and saying things.

He can pay miners with his money to do whatever. He can mislead or lead people in other directions with his opinions. He can appear and promote a new fork (and support his cause with lots of money). He can create a new mining company (lol) and get many many people trust him just for who he is. He can promote the cause to turn Bitcoin in a POS coin ...

Do not get me wrong. Perhaps you are right and he has not that much control. But perhaps he can influence it in ways we cannot really see. I would not say "He cannot do anything" with such certainty.

Your first suggestion should never be implemented... I will never vote for that. Today they "block" Satoshi's coins, and tomorrow it's Andreas and then Roger Ver and so on and so

on...  >:( ....This should never be allowed.

The second angle has some merit, but the chance that Satoshi would save his private key online, is less than the chance that the algorithm will be broken.  ;)

Still a interesting discussion to debate. Thanks OP.  ;)

I think that the president of PRC has a better chance to harm Bitcoin.

Please correct me if I am wrong (and I mean it, cause I am not 100% certain of this).

So, imho, if China decides to shutdown their internet or disconnect it from the rest of the world, then most Bitcoin miners will be cut off.
Until the network will adjust for that it takes quite a number of days - I don't know how it's calculated - but for some while the transactions will be VERY slow.
If this will take too long (which is a relative term) this would harm the network a lot and some may / will leave it.

Now, after the difficulty dropped this much, the Chinese have a chance that at the point their network is back to even do a 51% attack. Though unlikely since it's bad for business, this still can happen, theoretically.



Of course, I may be in a big confusion, somebody should check this theory against the possible reality.

What do you think would be the community's consensus on these 'ghost' addresses? I mean, this issue may become relevant when all the btcs have been mined out.

@ontopic, No, under today's protocol he by him/herself that would be impossible.

Ok quick back of the envelope calculation for you. Let's assume China has 60% of global hashing power (as stated here https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/kb/which-countries-mine-export-most-bitcoins/ ).

If those 60% were to go offline at the exact same time, the remaining 40% miners would indeed take longer to confirm blocks. A block that took an average 10 min before would then take exactly 10min/0.4=25min to confirm.
This state would persist until the next difficulty change which will be an expected 7 days (or a theoretical maximum of 14 days) away. After the difficulty change, block confirmation time would be back to an average of 10min.

The impact of this scenario is therefore minor.

As to the 51% scenario, I am not sure how one actor would be able to control all of China's mining resources, even if they are backed by the government.

Bitcoin was created to take the control of money out of the hands of people like you.

Your meddling would do far more damage to Bitcoin than satoshi spending his coins could ever do.

satoshi can only spend his coins once, meddlers would tamper with the system forever. No thanks.

I can't imagine that the real Satoshi would be interested in "taking down" Bitcoin because it was such an amazing creation and has such positive possibilities for the world. This Craig Wright situation only makes me hope that the real Satoshi does not come forward due to the disruption it can create to Bitcoin in general.

If the price goes to 1 million I would expect bitcoin to be accepted on 99% of the shops, online and offline, if people were using bitcoins for basically everything, selling a million bitcoins at once won't do anything because people won't care about the price of bitcoin compared to dollars or any other currency.

Let me be perfectly clear. I do not think Satoshi wants to harm Bitcoin.

However, as a community we need to think rationally about the greatest threats to the Bitcoin project and the best way to mitigate those potential threats. Please treat this as healthy critique to provoke discussion to make bitcoin stronger, not as an attack or proposal.

When I introduce people to Bitcoin, I'm often frustratingly told it is a pyramid scheme because the early adopter(s) own such a high share. I optimistically counter that Satoshi foresaw this and mined as many early bitcoins as he could without the intention of spending them to protect the future integrity from such an unequal wealth distribution.

While I have my doubts about the latest 'unveiling' of Satoshi - it has made me acutely aware we have still no idea who owns these early mined coins, nor their intentions. These untouched coins, if ever they became active, could have huge potential to create instability and damage to Bitcoin. An individual's personal circumstances and motivations can change unpredicatably, people can be put under duress. For example if somebody found out you were Satoshi and threatened harm to you or your family unless you did everything in your power to destroy the bitcoin project, wouldn't you?

The early mined 'untouched' bitcoins represent, to me, the biggest the potential source of damage to the entire project that can be weilded by one individual. The bigger the project becomes, the greater a liability they become.

One possible solition, to safeguard the future of Bitcoin, could be to build into the protocol a rule which prevents these early bitcoins from ever being spendable after a certain date. This gives Satoshi an opportunity to move a quantity (or all the coins) of his choosing IF he wants (or still even has the private keys) to.

That way, the potential weakness is resolved now, rather than a cloud which hangs over the project and potentially threatens it indefinitely.

I do not think Satoshi will act against the best interests of the project, but if there is a risk, no matter how small, I think we have to consider the options to make Bitcoin as succesful as it possibly can be.

I think nobody, not even Satoshi, might be a harm to bitcoin system.

at that point, my question would be why selling it, if it is accepted everywhere? satoshi would simply use it to buy stuff, and then those that acquire those coins would use them to buy other stuff and so on

there will be no more dumping ever

What could he do except selling his stake? Even if he sold his stake, he would just make another perfect distribution that everyone would kill for. He wouldn't destroy Bitcoin at all in my opinion.

Maybe he waits that Bitcoin gets huge and then he will start selling, who knows.

Exactly, there would be no point to sell it as it would actually bring you loss, regardless of the price. The only time Satoshi (or anyone with huge stack of coins for that matter) would
profit longterm in selling is on the top of the bubbles that will come along the way to mass adoption. Even then, the ultimate result would still be in favor of bitcoin, as he would once
again re-buy after the bubble. Point of the story is that there's certain amount of coins at each point in time, and it doesn't really matter who's holding them, or what the temp price is.

cheers

He has the power to, but that doesnt mean that he is going to do that.

Why would he? He is the founder of BTC. He loves it.

It's been calculated to be a lot less than this, because some coins were lost during a private key system update.

By then satoshi wouldn't make any profits by dumping 1 million coins into the market, and anything less wouldn't have any impact anyway since the marketcap would be on the trillions and the coins would be absorbed seamlessly. This is not really an issue. Even if it got dumped today, it would just mean the coins get redistributed among more people, the technology will keep making progress with or without dump.

he have no possibility to do anything with bitcoin. Worst thing that he can do is sell all his coins

I don't think himself can do any harm, but the news regarding his identity and how all will come to light can definitely affect Bitcoin, both for good and bad. I'm inclined to think that there may be some dark stories if the identity is revealed and so the price will take a hit I guess but with Bitcoin you never know.

Satoshi can literally move the entire price but I don't think he will want to willingly do that so I don't think he would hurt bitcoins but there's always the chance.

Who is going to wire Satoshi billions of dollars?  Bitstamp?

Let's say hypothetically Bitcoin does get massive and is traded all over the world and the market cap reaches into the trillions. It is possible there could be some way to identify which addresses belong to the poorest bitcoin users by analyzing their activity or some other method. Maybe a long term goal could be using those million coins (if he does have that many and still has the keys) to redistribute wealth to the poorest by spreading the coins among those addresses. I recall reading something about the Africa being a possible market for bitcoin.

i agree to your point. this is the best case scenario. if he wants to cash in he would sell it slowly.

a better question would be.. OP are you an account farmer?

I also think same. If bitcoin get more adaptability someone selling high amount of bitcoin will not create any pump or dump in price as the trading of millions of coin will be common those days.

The bitcoin system is strong enough to tolerate 1M coin sale over several months. If Satoshi wants to sell it, he will do it slowly.

He probably doesn't have access to his private keys anymore otherwise i belive he would already sell few of his coins atleast.
He even may be dead already..

No if the creator sell his coins some will see it as a warning that bitcoin has dead,if he or her dead or forget the keys,well it would be very embarassing as there is enought coins to have a full pleasure life and do several good things and have severa experiences with that money but i believe something happened why he hold such ammount and dont sell a part of it?Market would react trying to get more bitcoin and others would start to sell their ammounts as well,predicting something bad to bitcoin,even knowing that nakamon isnt anymore related to bitcoin.

Yep, he could drop the price, but not destroy btc, but it seems that he doesn't want that for btc.

Satoshi don't have control over bitcoin mining. No one could control it. That long considered 51% attack is even not possible unless some one find an exploit in the current system. But, big and mighty chinese farms may establish and try to steal the control. Bitcoin mining would have come a long way while we think about the exploits.

Satoshi could not has all mining farms,can be one of those who has,besides those he has several coins that some say that he lost the key ,others said he lelft it for a medium or long investment when all believe that bitcoin can cross the 1000dolalrs and reach another levels.Soo yes if he mooves his coins people will panic and we will see several bitcoins into the sell soo demand and supply should kill the current value,it may recover but the risk is high.

He could crush the price if he dumped all of a sudden, obviously, but that's just so unikely that is not a non issue. Also, as years pass by, his fortune will be easily absorbed by a growing market with a bunch of other users including a lot of whales, that are way more wealthy than Satoshi.

Perhaps consider reading some books on economic theory and learning a bit about supply and demand.  Here are a couple of web pages where you can get started with the concepts...

http://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics3.asp

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand

If the demand and supply work at bitcoin we would see bitcoin worthing 2000 dollars or more,currently the new coins being mined doesnt allow these to work and there are a large ammount of bitcoins at the market.

If he sells 100,000 per year, that could be easily absorbed by the markets. It will also clear the overhang and increase circulation.

Satoshi is no longer full owner of Bitcoin. He has also fleed the scene. I haven't heard of him being anywhere near the blockchain for sometime. He is near retirement.

He could crash the price, and that is probably it.
Bitcoin is based on a consensus system, so he would not be able to change how bitcoin works unless he writes a new client, and convince most people to use it.

In other words, yes?

That is right. I will treat the same as other individuals. He will not have more say than other people.