Bitcoin Forum

Buyers all around... why dump at least 12,000 coins at market?  Liquidity test?

Just DONT SLEEP

Try to cause a panic.

Yup.

I just hope that when these dumps happen the BTC gets dispersed among many different buyers, reducing the number and size of these dumps in the future.

Economically it does not make sense. In general you want to cut big orders into smaller pieces ("iceberg order").

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Maybe bitcoin's value was becoming too high for someone's liking.  Maybe they had to dump quick and grab the cash rather than spending days selling it.

It does highlight the fragility of any rallies.  The frequent cries of 'rocket!' on this forum must be tempered with the fact that the possibility of price reversal of a dollar or more per bitcoin is always seconds away.

[deleted]

I have it from good sources that Satoshi impulsivvely decided to get himself a Maserati Quattroporte :)

Alas, the price drop is likely to be gone by the time most of us can get funds into a buying position during the next 24hs.

December 21 is only two weeks away, someone is trying to liquidate all his assets to get enough money to buy an ark ticket. ;)

sequence of events over the last few days was:

1. Halving day (a week ago)
2. Simultaneous DDOS attacks against a few miners tanked the network hash rate while the btc price versus fiat went up. (last few days)
3. bitcoin-exchange news came out. (Today)
4. within a couple of hours of bitcoin-exchange a single person or group of conspirators sold 12K all at once.  (several hours ago)
5. Price tanked during the big trade but quickly rebounded. (now)

I think there are two stories here:

First, someone probably hooked up a botnet to p2pool and tried to mine (way less than 12K)  bitcoin while they took out their competitors.

Then, I think some lady tried to tank the market so that she could get a bigger chunk of bitcoin before anyone else heard the news of bitcoin-exchange becoming a PSP.

Anyone care to speculate on any of this being related to that?

(respect to making a new bitcoin-qt build available for testing. That would be in the timeline but this is the speculation forum)

If who ever dumped was hoping to induce panic they clearly failed.  I wonder if they are going to try and buy back their coins at all. If they are....they better do it now.

Such dump is essential to maintain the mid-term growth trend of the bitcoin, if it just goes all the way up, it will crash like a few months ago when we reached 15.40.

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Oh? Why that specific number? What's so bad about $13.38?

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/facepalm

I shoulda known.

Yep, but the market was waiting and absorbed it without much issue.    That just adds strength.   I didn't even bat an eyelash when I saw it dropping, just a yawn and went on with my day.  I know where we are going, I have studied story and have a great example to pull from.

it was a misclick
he meant to put up a 14k bid wall at 12.80 but accidentally was on the sell screen instead of the buy screen

because someone else may do it first? there are people with huge amounts of coins - tens of thousands, who got them cheap in the beginning (for as much as 0.1 USD) or mined them by themselves and who can crash the price easily; maybe some of them just needed cash for X-mas presents  8)

Let's see... Size of dump: Around 16K? Blockchain height is 211210.

Number of bitcoins issued to date:
((210000)*50) + ((211210-210000)*25) = 10 530 250

Assume no bitcoins have been lost ever.
Assume every bitcoin is owned by a fat cat.

What is the upper limit on the number of people who can own X thousand coins?

For X = 16K, 32K, 50K, 100K, 200K:

10530250/16000: 658
10530250/32000: 329
10530250/50000: 210
10530250/100000:105
10530250/200000: 52

Even in theory, at most a couple of hundred people could own several tens of thousand bitcoins.

There are some few people who do own several tens of thousands of coins,
but their true number must obviously be lower than these upper limits.

Major moves need to be large enough to turn the market around to be "worth it".
Otherwise the former fat cat is stuck with fiat, and can only buy back at loss.

Big dumps have the effect of distributing coin from the fat cats to have-nots.

Big dumps? Bring them on. (Just not all at once.)

The 14K dump was done in order to bring the ask orders closer to market price. If so, be prepared for a huge instant buy!



I give a 10% probability to  that scenario.

Seems a test, action before a mass purchase

The big dump was because someone is "stupid"?

If I had 12,000 coins that had to be converted into USD, I would dump all at once and get a better price than selling in 50-200 chuncks at a time. By selling in chunks, you give the market time to pull bids and sell ahead of your order.

Not necessarily. If I had a five figure number of bitcoins and wanted to buy a house, I'd probably just sell enough of them in one big lump after perusing the bid orders. Even expecting the price of bitcoins to appreciate faster than the mortgage would build interest it would be worth it to not have the debt.

Overall the dump was a good thing for bitcoin. That five digit lump can now be spread around the bitcoin economy and the exchange took it like a champ rebounding like it did. It shows this isn't like the bubble that happened earlier in bitcoin history and with half of all bitcoins minted, some of these older lumps of bitcoin are going to drop into the market from time to time.What would be stupid is if everyone waits till bitcoin hits another record high to do so, because that would be catastrophic to bitcoin's long term health.

Yes, the fact it reasonably recovered is a very good sign. The timing was actually great, a week earlier and it...


QFT

Says the script kiddie who used to sell a crappy self-extracting archive "botnet miner" on heck forums.

Here's a possible theory/explanation for the dump:

It was MtGox itself.

Maybe in order to fill a $150,000.00 USD customer withdrawl (the kind of customer that isn't subject to daily limits)?

Why were the customer's funds in BTC rather than USD (as the customer's account probably indicated)?

Perhaps because MtGox is playing the market, in addition to collecting exchange fees?

Or perhaps MtGox is deep into some kind of fractional reserve float of BTC?


* where's my tinfoil hat? *

lol long squeeze.

yes, i was just being sarcastic.  totally agree with everything you just said.

and this ladies and gentlemen is precisely why you can never begrudge early adopters.  its b/c on the way up to new heights they will all disagree as to where the top actually is and will each dump coins at different intervals.  some will make more and some will make less but its the fundamental difference of opinion btwn all participants at every point in time that makes a market.

it wasnt random wtf sell.

15k sold right before daily candle close.

ya i noticed that too, he was trying to paint an ugly daily candle.
once again proving, that someone was trying to scare everyone into dumping.

very good Adam.  we had that crap going on back in the Spring which i highlighted for my subs.

That makes no sense at all.

In order for MtGox to not have customers funds available they would have to be willing to have used customers funds inappropriately. But if they are willing to simply use customer funds they don't have to buy the funds with their bitcoins, they can just use the funds as they already were (in your theory).

maybe because you run a big mining farm, and wish to sell, and dont want the sell operation to be long, so, does'nt bother loosing few hundred $ by doing it fast.  Like, I've 12k BTC to sell.. taking few hours/days, trying to sell it slowly, will earn me 163000$, doing it in a minute, selling in one shot, will earn me at least 153000$.. If I dont care about a 10000$ difference, I'll sure dump it on a minute, and do something else of my time after :)

I have a feeling that there is 100s of people with more then 40k of bitcoins... They decided to cash out and probably had a goal to get so much. A real goal. Once they saw that goal was in sight.. Sell. The timing can be debated but i am not sure relevant.

After some research--

I discovered Kim Dotcom mistook his queue-poll-dancer-stage-spotlight with his oh-shit-it's-a-raid button on his remote.  

All is well.

put it this way. i told a bitcoin user how to restore their wallet backup of 40+K in coins and the tip was to use rescan.
i was given 100 btc for this. that is how they roll. 1000 dollars for some tech assistance that took 10 minutes. anecdotal evidence, yes,
but i KNOW they are out there. not some nerd IT person who knows bitcoin from the early time frame.. but someone who has a lot
of coins.

maybe saying hundreds was not the best way to put it. but they are out there and they have large amounts of coins.
so redo the math with 12K of coins... and it opens up the possibility of a lot of people. and they have no problem throwing them around.

I remember that: it was kholanta.

bitcoin users are generous, this is why you sell every bit of coin you mine? really?

i am unclear what generosity has to do with me selling every btc i mine. i doubt i have 10 btc left in my wallet at the moment. i sell
every time, all the time. that is what i set out to do from day one. it was my goal. not to speculate by holding a baby digital currency.
if i would have bought btc when i first started mining instead of buying hardware, lol, i would so be in the hole right now. my first btc
was being sold around 17-20 if i recall correctly.

but this thread is about why someone would dump 12k+ all at once. i think a lot of players in that range do not think about a thousand
here or a thousand there. we do. so that is why we have threads like this. we do not get it.

In two years, 1k will be a big dump. Someone will always be able to "make a big dump" and be happy with it.