why dump 12k+ coins into the market at once?

[elux]

because someone else may do it first? there are people with huge amounts of coins - tens of thousands,
who got them cheap in the beginning (for as much as 0.1 USD) or mined them by themselves and who can crash the price easily;
maybe some of them just needed cash for X-mas presents 

Let's see... Size of dump: Around 16K? Blockchain height is 211210.

Number of bitcoins issued to date:
((210000)*50) + ((211210-210000)*25) = 10 530 250

Assume no bitcoins have been lost ever.
Assume every bitcoin is owned by a fat cat.

What is the upper limit on the number of people who can own X thousand coins?

For X = 16K, 32K, 50K, 100K, 200K:

10530250/16000: 658
10530250/32000: 329
10530250/50000: 210
10530250/100000:105
10530250/200000: 52

Even in theory, at most a couple of hundred people could own several tens of thousand bitcoins.

There are some few people who do own several tens of thousands of coins,
but their true number must obviously be lower than these upper limits.

Major moves need to be large enough to turn the market around to be "worth it".
Otherwise the former fat cat is stuck with fiat, and can only buy back at loss.

Big dumps have the effect of distributing coin from the fat cats to have-nots.

Big dumps? Bring them on. (Just not all at once.)

[theomar]

The 14K dump was done in order to bring the ask orders closer to market price. If so, be prepared for a huge instant buy!



I give a 10% probability to  that scenario.

[johnyj]

Buyers all around... why dump at least 12,000 coins at market?  Liquidity test?

Seems a test, action before a mass purchase

[cypherdoc]

The big dump was because someone is "stupid"?

[TTBit]

If I had 12,000 coins that had to be converted into USD, I would dump all at once and get a better price than selling in 50-200 chuncks at a time. By selling in chunks, you give the market time to pull bids and sell ahead of your order.

[Atruk]

The big dump was because someone is "stupid"?

Not necessarily. If I had a five figure number of bitcoins and wanted to buy a house, I'd probably just sell enough of them in one big lump after perusing the bid orders. Even expecting the price of bitcoins to appreciate faster than the mortgage would build interest it would be worth it to not have the debt.

Overall the dump was a good thing for bitcoin. That five digit lump can now be spread around the bitcoin economy and the exchange took it like a champ rebounding like it did. It shows this isn't like the bubble that happened earlier in bitcoin history and with half of all bitcoins minted, some of these older lumps of bitcoin are going to drop into the market from time to time.What would be stupid is if everyone waits till bitcoin hits another record high to do so, because that would be catastrophic to bitcoin's long term health.

[robocoin]

The big dump was because someone is "stupid"?

Not necessarily. If I had a five figure number of bitcoins and wanted to buy a house, I'd probably just sell enough of them in one big lump after perusing the bid orders. Even expecting the price of bitcoins to appreciate faster than the mortgage would build interest it would be worth it to not have the debt.

Overall the dump was a good thing for bitcoin. That five digit lump can now be spread around the bitcoin economy and the exchange took it like a champ rebounding like it did. It shows this isn't like the bubble that happened earlier in bitcoin history and with half of all bitcoins minted, some of these older lumps of bitcoin are going to drop into the market from time to time.What would be stupid is if everyone waits till bitcoin hits another record high to do so, because that would be catastrophic to bitcoin's long term health.

Yes, the fact it reasonably recovered is a very good sign. The timing was actually great, a week earlier and it...

because someone else may do it first? there are people with huge amounts of coins - tens of thousands,
who got them cheap in the beginning (for as much as 0.1 USD) or mined them by themselves and who can crash the price easily;
maybe some of them just needed cash for X-mas presents 

Let's see... Size of dump: Around 16K? Blockchain height is 211210.

Number of bitcoins issued to date:
((210000)*50) + ((211210-210000)*25) = 10 530 250

Assume no bitcoins have been lost ever.
Assume every bitcoin is owned by a fat cat.

What is the upper limit on the number of people who can own X thousand coins?

For X = 16K, 32K, 50K, 100K, 200K:

10530250/16000: 658
10530250/32000: 329
10530250/50000: 210
10530250/100000:105
10530250/200000: 52

Even in theory, at most a couple of hundred people could own several tens of thousand bitcoins.

There are some few people who do own several tens of thousands of coins,
but their true number must obviously be lower than these upper limits.

Major moves need to be large enough to turn the market around to be "worth it".
Otherwise the former fat cat is stuck with fiat, and can only buy back at loss.

Big dumps have the effect of distributing coin from the fat cats to have-nots.

Big dumps? Bring them on. (Just not all at once.)

QFT

[b!z]

it was a misclick
he meant to put up a 14k bid wall at 12.80 but accidentally was on the sell screen instead of the buy screen

Says the script kiddie who used to sell a crappy self-extracting archive "botnet miner" on heck forums.

[LoweryCBS]

Here's a possible theory/explanation for the dump:

It was MtGox itself.

Maybe in order to fill a $150,000.00 USD customer withdrawl (the kind of customer that isn't subject to daily limits)?

Why were the customer's funds in BTC rather than USD (as the customer's account probably indicated)?

Perhaps because MtGox is playing the market, in addition to collecting exchange fees?

Or perhaps MtGox is deep into some kind of fractional reserve float of BTC?


* where's my tinfoil hat? *

[ElectricMucus]

lol long squeeze.

[cypherdoc]

The big dump was because someone is "stupid"?

Not necessarily. If I had a five figure number of bitcoins and wanted to buy a house, I'd probably just sell enough of them in one big lump after perusing the bid orders. Even expecting the price of bitcoins to appreciate faster than the mortgage would build interest it would be worth it to not have the debt.

Overall the dump was a good thing for bitcoin. That five digit lump can now be spread around the bitcoin economy and the exchange took it like a champ rebounding like it did. It shows this isn't like the bubble that happened earlier in bitcoin history and with half of all bitcoins minted, some of these older lumps of bitcoin are going to drop into the market from time to time.What would be stupid is if everyone waits till bitcoin hits another record high to do so, because that would be catastrophic to bitcoin's long term health.

yes, i was just being sarcastic.  totally agree with everything you just said.

and this ladies and gentlemen is precisely why you can never begrudge early adopters.  its b/c on the way up to new heights they will all disagree as to where the top actually is and will each dump coins at different intervals.  some will make more and some will make less but its the fundamental difference of opinion btwn all participants at every point in time that makes a market.

[lucif]

it wasnt random wtf sell.

15k sold right before daily candle close.

[adamstgBit]

it wasnt random wtf sell.

15k sold right before daily candle close.

ya i noticed that too, he was trying to paint an ugly daily candle.
once again proving, that someone was trying to scare everyone into dumping.

[cypherdoc]

it wasnt random wtf sell.

15k sold right before daily candle close.

ya i noticed that too, he was trying to paint an ugly daily candle.
once again proving, that someone was trying to scare everyone into dumping.

very good Adam.  we had that crap going on back in the Spring which i highlighted for my subs.

[FreeMoney]

Here's a possible theory/explanation for the dump:

It was MtGox itself.

Maybe in order to fill a $150,000.00 USD customer withdrawl (the kind of customer that isn't subject to daily limits)?

Why were the customer's funds in BTC rather than USD (as the customer's account probably indicated)?

Perhaps because MtGox is playing the market, in addition to collecting exchange fees?

Or perhaps MtGox is deep into some kind of fractional reserve float of BTC?


* where's my tinfoil hat? *

That makes no sense at all.

In order for MtGox to not have customers funds available they would have to be willing to have used customers funds inappropriately. But if they are willing to simply use customer funds they don't have to buy the funds with their bitcoins, they can just use the funds as they already were (in your theory).

[DoomDumas]

maybe because you run a big mining farm, and wish to sell, and dont want the sell operation to be long, so, does'nt bother loosing few hundred $ by doing it fast.  Like, I've 12k BTC to sell.. taking few hours/days, trying to sell it slowly, will earn me 163000$, doing it in a minute, selling in one shot, will earn me at least 153000$.. If I dont care about a 10000$ difference, I'll sure dump it on a minute, and do something else of my time after

[fcmatt]

I have a feeling that there is 100s of people with more then 40k of bitcoins... They decided to cash out and probably had a goal to get so much. A real goal. Once they saw that goal was in sight.. Sell. The timing can be debated but i am not sure relevant.

[annette786]

After some research--

I discovered Kim Dotcom mistook his queue-poll-dancer-stage-spotlight with his oh-shit-it's-a-raid button on his remote.  

All is well.

[fcmatt]

I have a feeling that there is 100s of people with more then 40k of bitcoins... They decided to cash out and probably had a goal to get so much. A real goal. Once they saw that goal was in sight.. Sell. The timing can be debated but i am not sure relevant.

Well, there can currently be a maximum of 263 people with 40k bitcoins. I'm not a betting man, but if I was I would bet the amount is actually a small percentage of that. Do you really believe that out of a maximum of 263, at least 200 (which would be required for "100s") hold 40k?

put it this way. i told a bitcoin user how to restore their wallet backup of 40+K in coins and the tip was to use rescan.
i was given 100 btc for this. that is how they roll. 1000 dollars for some tech assistance that took 10 minutes. anecdotal evidence, yes,
but i KNOW they are out there. not some nerd IT person who knows bitcoin from the early time frame.. but someone who has a lot
of coins.

maybe saying hundreds was not the best way to put it. but they are out there and they have large amounts of coins.
so redo the math with 12K of coins... and it opens up the possibility of a lot of people. and they have no problem throwing them around.

[Yuhfhrh]

I have a feeling that there is 100s of people with more then 40k of bitcoins... They decided to cash out and probably had a goal to get so much. A real goal. Once they saw that goal was in sight.. Sell. The timing can be debated but i am not sure relevant.

Well, there can currently be a maximum of 263 people with 40k bitcoins. I'm not a betting man, but if I was I would bet the amount is actually a small percentage of that. Do you really believe that out of a maximum of 263, at least 200 (which would be required for "100s") hold 40k?

put it this way. i told a bitcoin user how to restore their wallet backup of 40+K in coins and the tip was to use rescan.
i was given 100 btc for this. that is how they roll. 1000 dollars for some tech assistance that took 10 minutes. anecdotal evidence, yes,
but i KNOW they are out there. not some nerd IT person who knows bitcoin from the early time frame.. but someone who has a lot
of coins.

maybe saying hundreds was not the best way to put it. but they are out there and they have large amounts of coins.
so redo the math with 12K of coins... and it opens up the possibility of a lot of people. and they have no problem throwing them around.

I remember that: it was kholanta.