Bitcoin Forum

This year, Santa decided it would be easier to make bitcoin go higher rather than deliver individual gifts. 

If by Santa you mean Russian pyramid schemer Sergey Mavrodi, then you may be correct sir!
This is going to be like Mt Gox in slow motion.

But the gift is only to Bitcoiners this year because they're the only smart ones to invest in BTC ;)

So this will pop before Christmas. A week left for the exposure to hit the main stream.. I can see it happening.

I saw Sergey Mavrodis' MMM is promoting big % of profit in a short period of time for also big amount deposits bu their community is having a hard time controlling the people to keep the flow because of them are all greedy.  :-\ I don't think Sergey is the reasonbehind this, there must be a different santa out there. ;D

 I hope you're right.  I would rather not profit due to the naiveté of some relatively poor citizen of a third-world country who can ill-afford to lose what little they possess.
 

Hey, some people that actually have morals. Good to see.

If anyone is interested in profiting due to the exploitation of a third-world individual, group, or country, especially in a bubble of an asset, it's despicable in my eyes.

No-one should profit if it means that someone else is thrown further into poverty.

Yes we bitcoiners are the smartest people in this world so may santa will make bitcoin to touch new ATH.  ;D

I think this bubble, will drop right after christmas, like it does every year. I mean, this is just what i think, so it might also rise after christmas.

So when will this Xmas bubble start?  Soon I hope  ;)

Isn't it already in motion? Bitcoin price is more than $460 right now, 2 months ago it couldn't pierce the ceiling of $300 isn't it a bubble?
But if you look at bitcoin price charts, year by year you will see certain similarities - around December EVERY year bitcoin price is rising in similar fashion.
And in January we have huge drop. Coincidence?

Not a coincidence.
At the end of the year as it is a vacation / holiday / festival month the bitcoin price rises.
When the new year starts then it comes back to normal because the vacation / holidays / festival time is over

not on 25 december for sure, pump are not punctual ever, january can be a good way to continue this current pump

i think they are taking a pause to see if this value can be consolidated, their pattern is so clear, like the sun, i guessing that they will do the same with the next 500-600 range...

the bubble price is make confused, i don't know where price will go up or down.. i scared to buy bitcoin now, so i think bubble price will continue until xmas or maybe until new year

yeah, so the best thing is to HODL and enjoy the xmas days :) Next year you can start trading again...

There will be no Christmas 2015 bubble. The price will stay around $460 for the next few weeks.

It's always the same, people focus too much on peaks and bubbles. Focus on holding is a much better thing to do now we are less than a year away from the block halving. There won't be a bubble this year, just forget about it.

It's not a coincidence. Everyone's spent all their money by January, and they have to wait until the end of the month for their wages.  Their only recourse is to sell some bitcoins to pay their bills till the end of the month. Hence we get a dump in January every year.

What are you talking about? Are you kidding?
Last year, 2014, and in 2013 we decreased in price after christmas.But that was the time after this absolutely crazy bubble.I remember a few guys here wrote that they expect a bear phase of 18-24 months!
In 2012 we increased in price!!AT christmas evening around 13,20 and then upwards!
In 2011 we increased in price after christmas as well!! Around 3,90 at christmas evening and then upwards!
In 2010 we increased as well! 25 cents at christmas evening and then upwards!
So the price had risen each year after christmans except 2013 and 2014. Better check history and charts before making such a dumb statement!!

Yeah I agree, We are seeing the same patterns repeat again this year. $500 is the next target.

The bubble is already getting passed by, by the market.
Many speculatoers are getting impatient and what we are seeing here is just a natural market correction.

It could be worse and it will be worse. Just wait and see what will happen the next coming days..

I see it dropping right now. Surprised to wake up and see it at $443. That is a drastic drop overnight, well to me anyways.

If you think this is drastic you'll be in for a complete shock the next 2 days...

No, I really would not like such a gift because I am seriously considering to purchase some bitcoins these days since Santa has been a bad boy with me  :D

Drastic shock because the price shot back up to the same level in the same time?
This is just normal volatility for bitcoin, not something to be worried about.

We gain tens of dollars a day for multiple days in a row, but when we drop 20 dollars it is like hell freezes over. Sometimes I just don't get the logic here.

what do you know that nobody else knows that is happening in the next 2 days?
I am sure the ones who are ready to sell would like to know this mcfly anomaly. ;)

I think there will be no Christmas bubble this year. This is good for the long term health of bitcoin. Pump and dump is bad.

Right now the value of bitcoin is slowly increasing again, after a couple of days of ups and downs. I'm hoping for bitcoin to raise in value from now on.

As far as I can tell bitcoin is going up in value once again. There is movement as I am making this post, there is still a chance for bitcoin to reach $500 or even higher before this year ends.
Who knows what will happen, I will be holding and enjoying the holidays as you all should.

Again the same story. Guys/Gals, Bitcoin has too little history to talk about seasonals. It is only six years, whereas regular assets require at least 30 years of data to get something statistically meaningful. In the example you provided you got five cases, two with one outcome, and three with the other. No clear conclusion can be drawn, unless you want to say it is about 50/50 to go in each direction. I repeat, there is too little historical data to get the statistically meaningful forecast of the behaviour of the price in a given time period.

OP is saying the recent rise in prices has to be a bubble. I disagree. There may be one coming up in May/June, which can be named "Halving Bubble 2016". But at this point, we are still in a recovery phase from the bottom, there is no bubble yet.

Yes you are right. The recent price up surge has not witnessed any rapid raising of prices. A slow and steady price movement with reasonable volume never be categorized as bubble. Until upcoming halving we can regularly see this kind of price movements for sure.

I agree, there is indeed a rising to an upcoming bubble but I don't think this will happen this year anymore. I'm going for the mid of 2016 as well.
I'm glad to see the progress bitcoin has made so far though, this just proves that bitcoin can take a hit and can bounce back up.

On the topic of MtGox, payouts would be a nice present this Christmas...

The late price movement looks more like a slow downhill journey than a stop before a new price surge. But Christmas is approaching I will wait and see although I don't think in a new rise. At least not now.

I also think that in the near future rise is not expected and in January there may come a correction. The question is the scale of correction.

January might get crazy.

Exactly. I guess Santa like to reward the smart people of the world. If they invested in bitcoin, they would also very a good Christmas gift.

well, you can say that about any upcoming month. If the bubble is in the cards, we may see fireworks in any month of 2016. The point is however, I don't see just halving as sufficient reason to bring us to $1k prices. We would need some more events/developments to fuel the bubble. That is why I am sceptical that things start to go ballistic already in January

There is no chistmas bubble yet, since nothing happened price wise.

We will have a bubble after new year, when the price will sky rocket again ;)

if it does bubble then hopefully $500 will be the new floor. Although anything could happen

Its still better than it was in its $300.There is certainly a big shift and its stable from couple of weeks I last saw.The new year assumption is totally waste and illogical as no statistics are acquired yet to prove it.The prices generally go up during festive seasons as there is lot of shopping and stuff going on.Nothing is promised in the new years.

If there is a bubble peak, then people will measure it from $230.

10x bubble = $2300

Sounds about right. I'm thinking we might have multiple bubbles next year. One to start the year. Crash. And then another one in the second half.

it happened, and it was the last pump to 470, it's not like it was supposed to happen the exact same day of the Christmas date

you guy are so naive, like those thta thing that the increase for the halving will happen in the exact same date...

people that increase demand are not synchronized unless someone think that they are all part of a group of manipulators...

There was a nice pump with a down, and a repumping we are somewhat experiencing now. Movement is good, even if it is down sometimes, it allows to reenter at a better price if you are not holding at higher prices. At least that has been my case :D

People are going to use their Christmas money to buy more coins next week. The dump on the 19th was people selling bitcoin for Christmas gifts.

Late January we go vertical.

i woudnlt really call this a bubble though, its been hovering around 450 for the past month and dont think its popping anytime soon.

I wonder whether it was the christmas season shopping that caused this prise rise.

Well I am always happy to see a greater return on my investment
Price appreciation in Bitcoin after all is a good thing and I am looking forward to seeing what January will bring :).

The Christmas 2015 bubble will not happen or has not happen. The bitcoin investors are much more rational now.

There was no bubble about to happen. You will see the bubble, the real one, when everything will go like a tsunami up or down! Now the waters are fine.

I also agree that the bubble will happen in the least expected moment. We will know it happened once the things will start rolling, but it is extremely difficult to predict the exact timing. Nevertheless now it is clear that Christmas is not the right time for bubbles.

By focusing on bubbles and drops, you can make a profit. Sure, you can hold, but wouldn't you try to get more Bitcoins to hold? Play the game, don't sit there idly as opportunity passes you.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"

Yeah you can increase the amount of bitcoins you hold by trying to trade on the different ups and downs but its quite risky too.

I am not sure why people were talking about a christmas bubble. All i can see there was a pre-christmas bubble, and today on the 2nd christmas day the bubble bursted out.
Giving bitcoin a new push in some more realistic value.

Indeed, maybe that was the bubble and it just burst. hopefully this january isnt as bad as the last one, though with the coming of the halfing i cant see the prices dropping by much. Maybe not at all.

 and a few days later, *pop*

 I don't expect the bear phase to last past about mid-April to early-May timeframe though, not sure I'd call it the "halfing bubble" as I expect prices to stay a fair bit higer AFTER the halfing but there will be some bubble effect.


 The CURRENT bubble is more accurately the "Chineese exchanges start taking fiat currency again" bubble.



 On the positive side, the bubble is helping a fair bit to make up for the higher diff increases than I was expecting, and might give my current miners a faint chance at achieving a positive RoI.

Been doing this for over a year and so far it hasn't failed me. Sure it is a risky method, but with great risks comes great rewards, and if you learned to play with the risks involve, you will surely get a nice and hefty profit for Christmas. :D

you always look to charts and never look to reallity the bubble its a sesonal thing but not totally good only after the russia christmas of 6 jan we can see it rise we dont give presents just into 25 we also look to china and russia for btc price to rise into more demand of buy of btc after the 6 jan the usall ending christmas days

So far in 2016 January, the price is going no where, at least not going down. So it is good start compared to last year.

Santa??

The price is quite stable in 2016 apart from one 20% drop due to Mike Hearn's departure from bitcoin.

The bitcoin price has been below $400 for a few weeks now. Why it is so low at the moment?

Low? It was ranging between $200 and $300 for most of 2015. As to why, Hearn's very public departure was a few weeks ago. (http://fusion.net/story/255949/bitcoin-failed-says-mike-hearn/)

Edit: and it's Chinese New Year right now, which is the largest internal migration on the planet - many BTC traders have spent the last few weeks travelling to, or hosting, family.

i am interested to see what happens with the price when the chinese new year ends. i personally think there won't be much difference in the price compared to now. but i have seen some people saying that china will cause a pump because of the chinese new year as soon as it has ended.

I think the volume in Chinese exchanges are just fake volumes as most of them do not charge trading fees.

Yeah gotta add some relativity here thanks for that buddy.

After nearly a year of 250$, 370 doesn't seem low at all xD