Bitcoin Forum

Is it normal ? I wasn't here when the old halving block rewards happened before so I'm not sure how things work exactly but logically ... should we see a price increase (at least little bit) since we are getting closer and closer ?

No, there isn't a rule saying that the price will increase... And we didn't go through the halving yet.

We are still a couple months off, I think the price won't rise that much before the halving, even after the halving the price will slowly rise because people will be dumping at a higher price.

I think there is any correlation between price rising or halving block.
Why ? Because there are a lot of external fact that could impress real value of btc....
From exchangers... to users... miners and so on...

I know there isn't but as I said "logically" when you hear about the halving , you know that the price will increase and you start buying (and more demand = price increase) , this is how I see it .

logically the price would only increase after the demand increase and/or the supply decrease. an early increase because of not-yet-happened event are speculative.

Of course the price will be higher as a result of the halving than if there never was going to be one. However it is impossible to know what the price would be right now if there was no halving planned.

Perhaps the price would have been $250 now. I.e.- the price rise has already happened.

Perhaps the price would have been $410 now - in which case the price rise has yet to come.

There is no way to know. Certainly, it is ridiculous to expect a price rise right around the halving. I would actually think a price drop is more likely, as people dump their coins when a hoped for rise doesn't materialise. I believe this happened to oil prices during the start of Gulf War2- everybody expected oil prices to go up, they didn't, people dumped their holdings as a result, then price went down.

The old halving coincided with mainstream society discovering BTC - so it is not clear whether it was the halving that increased the price or the discovery.

It's worth noting that when alts halve (eg litecoin, doge) there is not really much of a price movement, despite various people trying to pump them around the halving date.

I reckon there is a rule because the people who get into bitcoin get far too invested.  It is a specialist niche so once you've spent the time to get into it its not so easy to get out.

Another jump is coming who knows when.

Its normal that you only see this kind of price,the price on the years past was made by a bot called willy at Mt. Gox which was the only exchanger at that time,thats why the prices blow up to 1k,well we wont see that again as there is no bot manipulating the price.

well i believe that we will soon start seeing a bigger increase and it will surely allow us to make some money

im holding my bitcoins and i think that everyone else should do that as bitcoin has a lot of potential to grow bigger and bigger

Inflation will drop after the halving (in fact, it will halve), which will mean that the slow price drop that we see now will decelerate. Before the halving, this effect will be priced in by the speculators (as they are the ones making the price).

Bitcoin's marketcap has been fairly constant recently, and at the sane time the technological development of bitcoin has also stagnated. As long as this does not change, I see no reason why prices would go up. For prices to go up you would need a lot of new investment, and for a lot of new investment there has to be optimism about the future of Bitcoin (especially relative to it's many competitors, be it Bitcoin classic or so-called altcoins).

If the value of a single bitcoin does not change much with the halving, the miners will have a big problem paying for the electricity for mining their blocks. Their income will halve too.

Everything can be possible. It also could be possible that we see a price drop because of the halving, no one know. It all depends on the demand and what price people are prepared to pay for a bitcoin. Of course I hope it will rise in value, but I can not do anything about it. All we can do is hope, nothing more then that is possible.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1207909.msg12680596#msg12680596

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/8760/gXmvnu.png

If this will happen, then u will not know how happy everyone is going to be. If we are going to see a 1000% increase (x10) that means that a single bitcoin will be worth over 4000$ which is amazing :)

My bet is on a price drop, a big drop.

why you think this? Like a lot of miners decide to stop investing and chain could "stop" (or produce really slow new blocks?)

Oooooooooooooooooooh no, they don't ... because they already understand that they can "ask" high price for bitcoins. http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img910/6019/ug1n3e.gif







the traders FOLLOW the supply, they don't destroy the value.
http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img908/9426/H3ygMn.gif

It is in the miners best interests for the price to rise in order to maintain profitability.

Mathematically, if the demand remains constant with only half output, then the price should rise.

Still early gents, plenty of seats on the train.

http://i717.photobucket.com/albums/ww173/prestonjjrtr/Smileys/Trains/trainsmileyf.gif

not always people have understand the volume in the bottom = 50 000 BTC for 3 days of bar and 30 on MACD range.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img911/3782/RoEtQn.jpg now, on this days with the same 3 days range : 200 000 BTC and 45 on MACD range.







the only problem ... is the limite of the FULL HIGH (like the 259 USD marker after the rise from 10 USD).

Making money ... can be a good operation.
And that's the main point of the halving for traders ... they can LIFT bitcoin price at the top of the 8000 USD like the gold when a monetary RESET happend.

Comparisons to 2012, LTC or Doge halvings are pointless. Comparing the 2020 halving to this one will be equally pointless. Each slice of time has its own circumstances and will act according to those. I'm not holding my breath for any action.

There was not much of a significant rise in price prior to or the day of or even some weeks after the last halving as Meuh6879's posted chart shows. It wasn't until a little over a month and a havlf before we saw a significant rise in price.

I remember in the months and weeks leading up to the first halving, there was lots more excitement and anticipation than there is now. Though that might change as we get closer to this second halving, I imagine. I also remember people wringing their hands and being worried and wondering why the price wasn't shooting up yet also during that time before it actually did finally some weeks to a month or so later. Some at the time said that the halving had already been priced in long before and that was why we didn't see an immediate skyrocket in price when the halving occurred.

Anyway, I wouldn't worry about the price not rising significantly eventually. Just focus on accumulating as much as you can while you can.

Halving is coming.

For me it's hard to tell if halving is already discounted in price or not. Perhaps it is already.

i'm expecting an increase any time from here to the end of the year, don't be impatient nothing is telling us that it will happen before or after or on the same date

I can't see any real justification for a price rise - the supply of bitcoins will not change only the rate of increase in the supply will reduce.

Happy to hear arguments to the contrary, however.

This is true, for the price increase i also dont think that for that halving is necessary, already the price has gone up from $300 to $400 + as last time halving before their were very less peoples knowing about bitcoin and most of them dont knew about halving , after the price shoot up after halving made crazy to peoples. So they are expecting the same type of halving this time also but they dont know that this time most of them are knowing that after halving price will increase and this thinking itself will kill the price as per my view.

Holy shit am I surrounded by fucking idiots.

There is a finite number of bitcoins.  Around 77% have already been mined.  Since the price is actually somewhat stable, the coins are in somewhat strong hands.  This means when the inflation rate drops even more, these people can then manipulate the market using a relatively small amount of money compared to what they've already spent to vastly increase the price of the coins they already own.  The lower the inflation goes, the more effective and easy this game can be played.  Bitcoin, just like any other market on earth that can be cornered, has whales that control an obscene number of coins compared to the general population.  The price will not be raised for you, the price will be raised for them.  You're just one of those tiny plankton fish that latches onto the sharks hoping for crumbs that everyone knows is coming.

So, yes you fucking retards, the price will go up because every market on the entire planet is controlled by scheming and manipulating lunatics and whales.

there is no problem with the price for miners. because even if the price drop dramatically and miners stop because of the low prices, the difficulty will adjust itself and mining will be less costing. so there is no reason for thinking that mining new blocks will ever stop

After the halving in July 2016, we're going to have 1800 new bitcoins generated every day instead of 3600 new bitcoins being generated today. Considering that millioins of bitcoins are being traded on the different markets every day, it's NOT going to have any effect on the market. We will still have 1800 brand new bitcoins every day, and millions of bitcoins will be traded every day. Business as usual. Only the disappointed people will panic sell their expensive bitcoins for cheap. We will see 300 per bitcoin before we see 600.

I also think that it will not rise after the halving you can see now that the value is now a bit stable and that is quite good.
I hope later that more people of course will use Bitcoin and that they can have some profit, but we have to wait for a good price increase.

Anyone with an IQ over 2 can look at your post history and tell you're a banker shill spam account.  22 pages of "sell everything price is going to 0!" in your post history.  Then the price went from $200 to $500 while you were spamming it.

there is not guarantee than the price rises before halving. i personally think the rise (the big rise) is going to start so fast and is going to be huge, but there needs to be some sort of initiation for that to start, like for example news about ending of block size drama.


good, i will sell everything i own if bitcoin price goes down to $300 and buy all the bitcoin i can. ezmoney

Being close to halving doesn't make much changes in the price increase. Only on halving can expect a big jump in price.

It's the old "Buy on the anticipation, sell on the news". BTC's price is in the hands of the speculators, not the miners.

I've been saying in other threads for the past few months that the halving is priced in already.  Or at least it seems like it should be--it's definitely not going to surprise anyone like a news report might.  So this is kind of what I expected.

So, if I get the charts well... a movement is to be expected but quite after the halving? Makes sense. Most will be waiting to see what happen and then react one way or another...

People preparing for that possibility will move price down, although if/when transaction capacity increases we may see a bull run, if so the apocalyptic mining scenario will not happen. :)

price rises now because everyone is afraid, and everyone hopes for huge price rise after halving so everyone buys bitcoins now to sell later for more

and i don't care if price rises by few $ now, it still rises, we will see price after halving,  i hope that it will be large one

just have patience and all will be good. i think the real action will start 1 month or maybe 2 weeks before the block halving gets completed. we can't do anything other than waiting for the big boys to start pumping the price. i am sure all will come from china.

is that really if price will go up when halving come? some people who hold their bitcoin must be want to dump their coins, but who will gonna buy if more people want to sell ?

well, the price is expected to go up while we are coming closer and closer to the block halving. people that have been buying their coins at current prices and when it was sub $400 will most likely secure profits just before or just after the halving. people who are willing to enter the market at that time will put up buy orders at various price levels. and these people end up buying the coins that people are selling.

so there will always be people who buy bitcoin, although most people want to sell their bitcoin when halving come, ahh i see now thank you

we will surely see a decent increase in price like a few weeks before the halving event, now the price is pretty stable

im buying a lot of bitcoins because i wait for an increase and i will definitely make some good money out of it when the halving will end

Indeed its just a bit of patient we need and we just have to believe in the bitcoin itself, the halving will come and the price will rise for sure.
It will not rise right now because its just to early for the price rise of the halving.

You don't know how markets work:

how is the haling any different then the difficulty doubling? as a miner, i was mining x amount, now mining 1/2 of x.

I think bitcoin will slowly head up after the halving, not straight away. People will realise slowly that bitcoin's harder to get. Just hodl.

thats right, i think that halving itself wont have a huge effect on bitcoin price as some people will start selling some will start buying

for a new all time high we might have to wait for a few years more as the price is not spiking that much as it did a few years ago

A few years ago the prices was controlled by bots thats why it reaches 1k+,right now there are no bots to manipulate the price only whales and miners are now controlling the prices.

because the difficulty doubling don't bring a value that is double of before, usually the diff follow this and not the opposite

Add congested network in the moments of panic, and Bitcoin is done. This time, for real.

I have seen the halving of litecoin and i can say that before the halving the price of it was really high, because everyone was thinking that the price after halving will be higher so the price went high. Now i think a great number of traders have been moved to ethereum and i think this should be the reason why bitcoin price is not jumping high.

yes if there would be no price rise now i would be totally normal, but best part is, that price rises now, everyone buys bitcoins just for chance to sell for huge price after halving, so price rises now and will rise for next two or three months for sure, till halving

Except the price skyrocketed AFTER halving last time and not before.  China is also the prime mover of BTC currently and there's supposedly further yuan devaluations of like 30% coming, so they would all pile into Bitcoin even more.

there is no normal defined. you can't expect the same changes happening as they happened last time.

but this stable state is normal for any rise, cause before the rise there is always a stable accumulation state.

Last time around the halving the price slowly went from $5 (2012 summer) to $12-13 (2012 dec.) but that was lower than the then ATH (~$24). After the halving it kept climbing slowly for months. The latest LTC halving was a slightly different pattern: from <$2 it went to >$8 then back to $2 finally stabilized above $3.  

With litecoin, the $8 peak was before the halving, and it was because of some huge Chinese ponzi scheme, after halving price went down from $3.3 to $2.8, and it has been moving around $3.

I am also currently suprised to not see any significant growth in price. But i think there will be quick straight rise in halving because whales like to collect enough cheap coins before halving right now.

Last halving the rise took place mostly after it happened and not before.
Maybe this time it won't that much different.
Or in worst case it is already priced in and nothing will happen.
I'd say let's wait and see.That is all we can do right?!

i think its normal, before halving price will even decreased  a little. but after halving price will grow, so just wait and in august or September increase will begin

This is what most people dont get lol.

The price point usually settles after not before. Thats because some people are not informed and they react to the news later or its more of a gradual sense.

Indeed it just need some time before it will rises to a higher amount and mostly this will be when the halving has been done.
Maybe it will even go a bit of because of the people that are investing in the bitcoin itself but that not to predict.

It's more likely to see the price go up before the block halving as people will buy as they expect the price to go up. Once the block halving is done people will either sell their coins or they keep holding as they are too late to sell.

Its all a matter of time in my opinion it will happen but its just take some time before it will unwraps itself totally.
It still a couple months till the halving will happen so there is still enough time to see some signs its gonna starts.
I think its just to early right now if I'm honest.

Yes I think price decrease before the halving because the halving hasn't happened yet, and some people fear "change", halving is a pretty big "change".

Then the halving hits, and daily supply/demand relationship will be changed significantly overnight, then people will realize there's only 1/2 supply on the same daily demand. They start panic buying and Bitcoin rise thousands of percent in the following year.

There is no "normal".

One halving has occurred so far.

The price reacted long after.

Was it because of the halving?

Was it because of the sustained attention that Bitcoin was getting due to Ross Ulbrichts arrest?

Or was it because of shenanigans at Mark Karpeles's exchange, a bot running rampant, trading coins that didn't actually exist?

So, no there's no reason to think that it's a given that the price should increase, just wishful thinking on everyone's behalf.

Indeed, we just need some patience people, the halving will let some signs go off but it will take a while before it will.
Its just a matter of time before this is gonna happen.

Patience is what we all need but the most people do not have this patience, and this is even just on a short term.
We should wait for it its just a couple months( 3months till it will happen) if it has been done we can make profit because than its gonna rise for sure.

i must admit that we are still pretty far away from the halving so i think we will have to wait a bit more for a decent price increase

the price will start hopping up pretty fast like a few weeks before halving but it will be worth it as it will make us some good money

Everything in life is a matter of time. Currently there is enough time till the block halving, yes. The entire community is waiting for the price action to start in the coming weeks/months. It can happen at any time. We just need a large player to make a start, and other people will follow.

The thing is people expect too much with the halving. In the case that it didn't rise as they expect it to be they'll lose trust and sell out. Of course it's gonna start a domino effect and further put the price down the drain.

i was there
there was much speculation
but at the end of the day nothing notable happened.
what happened ~1 month later was pretty intense,
http://s29.postimg.org/hjvqhxuk7/Untitled.png
i fell in that bear trap on the right :D

It's normal because speculators normally drop Bitcoin price but they can't do that now. We haven't seen sub 400 except for 2-3 hours this year. There's no pressure, price will increase this summer. Don't worry and hoard more BTC while you still can. :)

I agree. the price will increase after halving, so just watch the price on that time.
but if you want to watch the price before halving, it's normal I think, as long as you don't lose your mind waiting for the halving

We can not expect the exact time for the consequence of halving to take place. But it's still going to happen for sure. For me, a long-term investor of bitcoin, the consequence timing of halving is not a big matter.

I like this.  8)

there will soon be a huge increase we just have ti wait for a little bit

Looking at the charts seems like nothing special happen on the past halving and it took months before the price rise.
A lot will be disappointed when there is nothing gonna happen after the halving in a week or so.

Halving is still 3 months away. So the price is not so high. I also think the big whales are also making the price low so that they can buy more.

Whales don't have to keep the price "low" as they have already bought their coins below $300 back in 2015. Now it's waiting for the Chinese pumpers to start creating a massive rally. That's what a lot people now are waiting for. It's just a matter of time.

It's a matter of time to see that the halving will not increase so much the BTC price.
All is almost already in the price...perhaps little short jumps up to $500 but it will not last long...

Remember me in 3 month if I were wrong.

Halving had given a big jump during the past time, but this time as quoted by above mate price can be found around $500 on halving.

What is the reasoning behind that? I have seen comments at Bitcoin being $800 at the halving, I've seen comments at it being lower because of a dump. None of them are extremely reputable or offer any insight as to why they say what they do.

most of the speculations here are just total nonsense, with some FUD in the mix too. so don't think too much of what you read on the forum.
IMO, price is not going to rise until there is some changes in bitcoin (the block size drama), no matter what it is going to be the effect is going to be big.

Block size debate will conviently be resolved around the block halving so whales can accumulate more and keep the price low, once resolved the price will shoot up, probably see $3500 by 2017

When Litecoin had it's halfing last year, the price didn't start increasing 'till about a month and a half (more or less) before the halfing was due.

 If Bitcoin follows that same pattern, the increase won't be due 'till early June.

The block size should really be solved first before we can have a large price in bitcoin because of the network congestion and its taking longer to confirm bitcoin transfermation.

I also think the block size problem hold down the price quite a lot. If that is resolved, the price could double.

i agree with this.
it sounds more realistic because so far i feel like the block halving debate has caused a lot of trouble for bitcoin and that is why the price is stuck here. that and the fact that whales are accumulating for the moon.

so solving it would be a good launching pad for the moon.

the block size drama has indeed kept the price lower, but i really think that if there was no drama about increasing the block size, the price would still be below the $500 price level. maybe that we would sit in the range of $460-$470, but not much higher.

naah, thats not true at least it wouldnt go up that much right now maybe a few weeks before the block increase yes but not right now as there wouldnt be any significant changes

i think the price will start increasing significantly pretty soon we just need to wait, i think that month might be the longest time we will have to wait till increase

everybody calm down, it is just the stable price state that always happens before any rise. there should be an accumulation by the big players so that they can get the maximum amount of profit from the pump.

If everybody's been accumulating shouldn't the price rise slowly since everyone's buyin'? Anyway this 'stability' would be short-lived IMO, this is simply the calm before the storm.

The price is double since the last year, what do you want?

People want double of double...but they forget that other people have to buy double of double...

Exactly, this is the point

people... are you fkin blind? halving incetives for Bitcoin are nothing to damage Blockstream is doing!!

 ;D what i see ... is a stable price.


stable price, in a controlled supply ... is because 3600 BTC are bid EVERY DAY !

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img923/3235/ABbQ3I.jpg

You say prices are not increasing???
Prices were stable when it was $250, but it's now $400 which is nearly double that price, so would you still say that the price didn't increase???
Miners will still profit as halving ain't in yet...

Price has increased a lot from those days of $250 but after crossing the barrier of $400 it's been very long to reach $425 and sustain without fluctuations.

I think the price rise will be near June or early July. The price will hovering around $450 to $550 before halving.

Probably true.. the price would probably starts to increase by next month...not because of halving but because of people who are holding their coins...

yeah price has doubled and now it remain stable, that doesn't mean price won't increase, as halving is near, it seems price starts increasing from next month.

well if you hope for 10$/day rise then you can stop hoping for that, price rises now because more and more people buys bitcoins if you noticed, and price rises like 10$ in week, and that is pretty good because at halving we should see price around 550$, and that will be pretty nice because after halving price could go up to 1000$

I hope that the halving will happen anytime soon. It has not happened yet and many bitcoin users are waiting for it to happen. If this will happen it could attract allot more people.   

The lower price is good for some of us. It gives us more chance to buy cheap coins and sell at higher prices.

No it doesn't - don't be silly.

If BTC was twice the price you could afford half the BTC you can afford now. If you start with, say, $100 and BTC goes up by 5% - you make $5. That applies whether BTC/USD is $400, $200 or $800.

BTC is subdivided into "satoshi" - there are 10 000 000 to every 1 BTC. The price of one satoshi is vanishingly small. Even if BTC price rose to the point where 1 satoshi was unaffordable, BTC could still be further subdivided. The problem you think exists - doesn't.

Edit: 5% of $100 is $5, not $20. Every day's a school day!

I'm happy to learn this:
 $100 and BTC goes up by 5% - you make $20.
strange calculation...

Well spotted, fixed, thanks!

ok...it's better so.

The price today was increased a little bit but i think we don't need to relay for block halving because block is too far and i think we will see more increase in end of june..

Be patient, there is still plenty of time to halving and the price will likely go up slowly.For few days price is stable above 420$ and it is good start to rise more.If buying presure is increased and with some good positive news maybe we see 500$ at the end of this month,or maybe next month?

It's dependent on us.
Nobody but we determine the price.
If suddenly a group of people starts buying bitcoin it will boom up and if miners start to sell it will go down 👇.

well if you have a really small amount of bitcoins then you cant actually control the price too much thus the people who have vast amounts of bitcoins have a bigger impact on price

i think there will soon be a big increase of price because theres no too much time left to wait till halving, i believe it will surely make me some good money because of that

The immenent price rise could happen in the May or June. The price will rise to $500. After halving, the price will be $800.

We are still awhile out from halving IMO.  I am speculating that we won't see big movement until late May.

It do not has to go to a higher amount before the halving it has to up after the halving that is the most important rise that has to happen in my opinion.
To be honest I think the bitcoin will be low before the halving and high after the halving has been done this year.

thats true, waiting is the key that will allow people to make some good money if they will be patient enough and hold their bitcoins till the halving date, because there will be a big pump

i think that the price increase will kick in like a month before he whole halving process because people will see that the halving is near so they will start buying their coins in order to make money

I don't see how the increase in price had anything to do with the halving. In this graph I read a very stable price before and after halving, followed by an exponential bubble, a collapse, and a new normal.
Since then the price went up, and down, and the past year went up again to end on the current 400+ (although it has been higher in the past year). Everybody expecting a large effect of the halving must have influenced the higher price, so I see no reason for an increase after the halving. If it happens months later, it is the "normal" variation again.

Now that is interesting if we follow that pattern we might not see much movement until months after the halving.
I doubt that though Bitcoin is so much bigger now and so hype driven ppl will buy  more and more just trying to make quick money.

People just expect the halving to be a price jump on the same day or something lol.

When the halving is a gradual price increase then a immediate one..

We are getting closer every day but the price is staying at the $420 stage, i think we should wait until June and see what will happen, i expect at that time the price will be increased because of the panic buying probably.

I think that we will see higher prices on next weeks, but how big and fast will be the increase its very difficult to predict. The increase could be slowly if starts on following days or more fast an vertical if its on closer days to halving.

After the halving the price will steadily increase its price,but for now it will just play around 400-430 and will continue to do so until we have reach the halving.

Shouldn´t it be pretty much priced in already? Markets do tend to try to be ahead of the curve after all.

Well, not necessarily. Especially considering the market right now, it is very possible that there are still increases to be had.

I think it won't be a 10-fold increase, but if something happens it will be fairly substantial.

I don´t know. Mining is probably pretty squeezed after the huge difficulty increases so you´d expect hefty selling into any major rallies. Those are stupendous investments, total hash rate is presently at over 1.3 Exahash/s.

This time how the price will be before and after depends on the market and the adoption. Halving will never occur same as the past time. Can see certain change in the growth as well percentage of increase.

Yeah,it wont be the same as the past halving and the price of bitcoin now rely on its users and companies that is willing to invest into the coin if there is not enough companies then we will still be at the same price level.

Well looking at the price it seems the coming halving won't be as same as the previous one. But we can't expect anything we have to wait until halving and I think can see good increase in the coming weeks.

There will be a good increase in the coming weeks or months as we are getting close to the halving and we just need to have faith in bitcoin.

Still have 13 weeks to go, plenty of time for positioning.

Lots of the "priced in" crowd are shorting and building the foundation for the huge short squeeze past $500.

There are a lot of people that is indeed saying that the value will not even rise after the halving and that can be bad for the most people who already have Bitcoin, but we cant control it.
The bad thing of Bitcoin is that you never know what will happen with the Bitcoin, so we have to see.

You know what will be funny? That these "priced in" believers will sell far below $500 and buy back above $500 because it gives them a horrible feeling having sold that low and miss out on good profits.

and if after halving all would go down suddenly under $300 or so...

i believe people hope too much...but we can see that we are before a big doubt to risk over $440...

For me it doesn't really matter, long term I assume bitcoin will go up, and short term I am not planning on buying/selling much. The only thing I would benefit from, is going up and down more, as it gives trading opportunities.

Yeah trading opportunities would be great here when the halving comes and a lot or users will be dumping and pumping bitcoin just to get more profit from others.

price increase will e after halving, not before halving, so be patient and just wait.

after halving, when it will be more difficult to mine coins, price will increase

Stop being retards, the price is guaranteed to increase, even panic-selling nu-male cucks can't keep the price down.

See my post here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1428863.msg14485379#msg14485379

^^This.

If you look at charts for previous events.. there was a gradual increase before and after the halving event.

Exponential rises have different driving factors. April 2013 for example was widely believed to have been driven by Cyprus.. it just happened to occur right after halving.. there would have been a rise then anyway.

Who knows what 'next Cyprus' might happen.- But if you read the news, and follow economics, you should know there are definitely large black storm clouds gathering on the global economy horizon.

You are too much optimistik.
I hope you believe in what you write and you do not write so to sell your bitcoins for a better price.

I see no reason to see the BTC price interesting higher.
I believe the BTC price is already regulated for the halving...I see it even a little to high...
I see only "panic-selling" if the price goes too high...
Just be careful and be not too optimistik

That's how the big dogs play with the sentiments of people by manipulating the prices during these days as they know people will start hyiping about the same...
Do you know the prices have already doubled??? ;)

Yes this is how they play and only a few users of bitcoin who dont have much money can go with this flow to make a short profit and only the big one can gather large amount of money.

People need to relax, some of the expected price increase could already be priced in but we won't truly know of the impact until a few months after the halving.

Supply of coins will be more limited so only then will we know the full impact.

Yeah with the reward that is getting low the price will rise and this is the effect of the halving of bitcoin and many users will be holding till that day comes.

if you hope that price will rise by 10$ in day before halving, then i have to say to you that it won't happen, if it would, then we could hope for price like 3000$ after halving but we predict price around 1000$ only

if you would look closely to price of bitcoin, you would see that price rises, by 5$ in week or so, and that is better than nothing

Never mind if there's no increase at the moment. It's a good thing some roller coaster price has been happening today cause if all speculated halving price will happen we can never see such "cheap" price today.

It's clear no pre-halving effect has been happening now and if there's then it's good. Just keep on your usual doings and just ride every wave that the bitcoin price will bring to us.

There are a lot of people that is saying that the value will be not higher in the future and they think that because the value now around this time is not high enough to rise.
And they are right I think, we should wait a longer time until we can sell it with some nice profit.

no it's not a gradual increase, basically always the halving happen with a massive shot to the sky

and then you get a dump after a certain time frame, this because average joe are not coordinate with the bot that play on the market, or with the whales itself

so when everyone begin to buy many other jump on the rush

I think, now the buyers are waiting for some more closer to the July and after that they will start buying bitcoins for holding for the halving and at that time you will notice a big increase in the price of bitcoin.

There will be a big increase in the bitcoin price as the months pass by and with the halving is getting near bitcoin users are buying and holding their bitcoin.

Don't expect a price rise until halving actually takes place, because the price has already doubled from where it was previously...
Precisely, you should just buy and wait for the halving to actually happen, because then only it will rise and till then, you will only see this stability of the price between $400 - $450, it won't even reach $500 till halving occurs...

The bitcoin will not increase before the halving, the bitcoin will increase when the halving has been done, maybe the price will only go to a higher amount with some dollars before it because of the people that are gonna invest in the bitcoin before the halving, although we have to keep in mind the bitcoin is unpredictable.

Yes, I also think the same the price may be start to increase in the month of May or June when there will only one or two months remaining in the halving to occur, and I think at that time the price will start increasing and will reach to about $700.

Could someone explain why everyone seems to think there will be a huge jump in the price of bitcoin due to the halvening?  ???

I mean, yeah sure they supply will be reduced, but it makes more sense to me that people will anticipate it and thus some of this would be priced in. No?

Maybe a steady increase yes, but a jump would required everyone to be taken by surprise.

I see a little but constant leverage up.... probably an increase could be divided in the long time...

The increase is slow at the moment. So it could be good for the long term price rise and mass adoption.

Yes the increase in bitcoin price will be gradually so that it can maintain its stability and wont crash again like the past halving.

I like the slow rise of the bitcoin. This will make the mass adoption easier. If it is too volatile, people will not invest.

Yes if its to volatile people will have a hard time thinking weather if its good to invest in bitcoin so the slow rise is good for bitcoin.

According to preev the price of bitcoin is very stable at 423 price and i think it will increase more after month ends. Just lets hope that the price will gradually increase before block halving ends..

There is slow increase of the price for some weeks now. If the trend continues, the price will be $500 in May or June.

The halving is indeed getting closer but this is not saying the price must rise before it, I even think the price is going down before the halving and after the halving rise to a high amount.
A lot of people are also saying this in the speculations section and I think they are right.

The price action will be contrary to what the majority expect,as it usually happens in such cases.

Try a different approach: what profit do miners make? Given the life time of their equipment before the hash rate makes it worthless, the equipment, electricity and capital cost should be less than the revenue of mined bitcoins.
It's can't be too much, as more people would join them and competition lowers the expected profit. So let's assume it's 10-20%. The block halving is included in this estimate, as miners know exactly when it will happen.
This means each block produces 2.5 to 5 BTC profit now, and after the halving some mining equipment won't be worth the electricity anymore. Hash rate can go down a bit, and the remaining miners get a lower profit with a bit less competition.

Current daily volume (http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) in bitcoin sales is 115,256 BTC. That is 800 BTC per block on average. Newly mined bitcoins make up 3% of the daily volume. That will go to 1.5% after the halving if the rest of the transactions stay the same. I don't expect losing 1.5% of the daily volume to have much influence on the price. The effect on miners is much larger though.

lets see whats happens close to halving

I think we just have to wait for a couple months till it will rise, most likely its gonna rise after the halving and not before it.
This is also what speculators are saying, and I think they are right.

What speculators? I think the speculation before the block halving will make the price go up as people will start with panic buying a few days to a week before the actual halving. After the block halving people will start with securing their profits.

The halving will be very good but its just a matter of time before the halving is gonna rise in my eyes.
I do not know when its gonna increase but you do not have to worry that its not gonna rise for sure!

You see that the halving will be not good for Bitcoin this time and there are also a lot of people that is saying that the price wont even rise after the halving and that will be bad.
So now the most people are also upset because the value is not being higher and that is bad.

I am not so upset. I like to stable price for the time being. The stability can attract more investors.

You can indeed say that the halving will be not that good now around this time because the value isnt rising so that is quite bad, but you never know what will happen with the value.
And it is almost impossible to predict because Bitcoin is a currency so you never know it will be.

Well i think that things will be pretty much stagnant before the halving. Only after the actual halving that things will change.

Why you think price will not rise? if you look closely in the current market trend most of the elite trader also believe this trend gonna pump hard. Its better to hold all your coin for now.

There is most likely gonna be a increase but this will be later visible from now one its still not visible, I think the bitcoin will rise when the halving has been done and not before it.
Before it could even go to a lower amount because of the buyers and sellers.

https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FvSyZuYW.png&t=563&c=SwikQzfqd9gDxQ

This look like I would call an increase. In any case, you have to be patient, the big rise will not happen when you expect it, you will probably be sleeping and you will wake up at something like 525 dollars, then you know the party has started and there can only be a way up from there, until then just keep making as much BTC as you can, because a year from now people will be regretting not buying all this 3 figure BTC.

we are pretty close to halving now and after several weeks no increase for bitcoin prices seems today slowly but sure the prices has rise up and i had buying during prices $430 and the current prices $435-$438 but i'm still hold my bitcoin and hoping we will reach to $440 today or tomorrow

I think we're not much close to the halving. Only the price rise happening is just of the technology and on its gradual rise. The halving effects will cause a increase in price when you are one or two weeks away from halving date.

This small rise is nothing and cannot be considered as something big, i doubt we will see 450$ This looks
 like more like preparations for good redistribution..But this is only my opinion.I don't like high hopes!

Actually it is the halving effect in the price of bitcoin as everyone is believing that in the halving the price will increase so everyone is going to buy bitcoin and everyone is going to hold them, with the high demand the price is increasing.

Does the halving not mean that the price is going to decrease. But the price is still going up I have read somewhere that the halving is maybe not happening. I just am going to wait and see what is going to happen.

Just reached 450$ , can we say it's final countdown and we should expect a rise with time till the halving block reward happens now ?!

That's the best one I've heard yet. Anyone else agree?  ;D ???

$450 is not a high hope but it will happen easily tomorrow morning, the big hope is to reach about $700 before the July when halving will occur so that we benefit more when halving occur, with that it will be a chance that we reach to 41000.

No halving is going to happen, this may be programmed already. We are close to halving the price has just started increasing and we can expect a good price rise, let's wait for halving.

That was kinda my point. And it is programmed already. Already baked into the protocol.

If the halving does not happen, that means more than 21 million bitcoins will be mined. It would also break the fundamentals of Bitcoin.
It is possible, if all miners agree to just keep mining more coins. But the miners too have an interest in a stable trustworthy coin. If they make fundamental changes like this it is going to be an interesting time to say the least.

why turning the words in such manner?
The having systems will overlive us...
But we can say that the halving effect will be smaller every 4 years...
12.5 soon
6.25 in 4 years
3.1225 in 8 years
etc...

The halving will happen either way. We haven't missed one block halving yet. and there is no reason we will miss it this time. Remember that for most of us we think it is about increasing of the price, which is just a hype.

And there's no such thing as instant so we won't missed the train. In the current state of the price, I can't considered this as a prehalving effect.

The effect before halving must be in the price range of $500 above.

I don't know what you mean about no increase but Bitcoins ARE slowly, steadily increasing in value from $400 to $450 in just about a month.

You might've not noticed but there really is an increase.

just reading people's statement that they're waiting for halving and gonna sell their btc when the price rising because of halving,if people do this massly,i'm sure the price will fall even after halving,panic selling will have possibility to happen

I don't see this increase correlated to the halving in any way what so ever.
It is boosting on pure speculation like it always has. It is a currency that is fueled by the tech sector and all others are fueled by well... fuel.  :D

The bitcoin price has increased gradually from $400 range to $450 range in the last 3 months. So it is good for the medium price.

The price is still in the correction stage after the big rise last year. The price will rise again from July to August.

As you can see now you see that the halving will be not that good for us and that is because the value is not rising now and that is quite bad for the most people who already is using Bitcoin so please have patience.
There is a higher chance that you have to wait a longer time until the value will be more and that we can make some profit with it.

The rising value will attract more people to the bitcoin. This will increase the mass adoption. The value will rise.

The halving is happening - whether this means the price of bitcoin will increase is questionable. Markets do price in known facts , whatever people on here may otherwise post. If the price was guaranteed to rise after the halving no one would be selling now at all, all the coins would be on offer at what the market thinks is the post halving price.
Since coins are on offer at the current price then the current price must already be the post halving price, and no rise is coming.

this topic started in March, the price value of bitcoin even dropped some back there, from $400+ to $370 as i remember. the nearly increase sure is obvious like a sky rocket, no one can not notice.

Yeah we are close to the days of Bitcoin halving, but often we were having a small increase in price. So this would possibly get us a big increase on day of halving.

Several small increases combined add up to something decent after some time. I prefer it this way rather than seeing one peak that gets dumped down again after a while.

Yeah its getting closer but if you see the price is very stable they are affraid for bitcoin crash because block halving is to far..
And i think even after block halving it need more months or weeks before we will see that the price will increase as like other opinion..

I think many miners have held back many of there coins to sell after halving. So the price may (initially go up only to) end up lower... but after all is sorted in a few months time Bitcoin will begin to rise in price, possibly near the end of the year.

im starting to get a bit worried at the moment too because i want the price to go clearly up as fast as possible and not much time before halving it is still really stable and not going up

in my opinion the price still has a lot of potential in growing we might just need to be a bit more patient and wait till it will reach the new heights in the near future

Well, we are up $75 over the last 90 days. That is a significant increase.

I think if the price does happen to increase just before the block halving then I think a dump will be happening at the halving day or just after it as people will start to secure profits.

The value keeps stable for a long time and that is indeed quite bad and that must change soon for a lot of people because they want to make of course profit with it.
And they already waited a long time so it must be soon that they can earn money with it but you are not for sure because we cant control it.

it's already priced in, the price won't rise

/s

Yeah your but now according to preev the price is now 453 and its gradually increase but im not use if it will continues increase.. because there still possibility that the price will dump again..

Yes, the price is definitely increasing but no one is noticing that increase and it will start to increase with more speed as the month of June and July come more nearer, just wait a little more and continue to buy bitcoins.

The actual increase in the price of bitcoin will be started when halving occur and the current small increase in the price is just because of the speculations about the price at halving, whenever the halving occur the price will continue to increase with each day pass.

No, after the halving it will not require any more weeks or months for the price to start increasing, I believe that at the time of having the price will start to increase and till halving it will reach to a reasonable price and after the halving the price will be at speed of sky rocket.

The price has already started to rise. In the begin of the year, the price was around $350. It is around $450 now.

my view is the following..in that everytime we get some traction for price rise...the FUD starts to keep the price down ..or whales come out and play the market like a banjo

but the below is what I think is gonna happen...ie it will rise a bit more...if we are lucky it will settle out at say 500 usd for this year

this is how btc has progressed imho

2013 (Oct) when I started mining was $150 usd

2014 (bubble comes and then gone) price was around say $250

2015 $350

2016 say (again if lucky) 500 usd when it all shakes out after halving (and the next round of doom/dismay and fud comes out to keep the price down for whale accumulation)

etc

thus it is 'adoption' imho .....and I don't see enough to pump the price..but do see enough to float the price (assuming bag holders like me also continue to hold)

but hey...we would be 'ecstatic' if such returns were happening on our 401k or at least I would be :)

hope I'm wrong and it pumps to the moon..but those are my expectations...then again I'm always wrong on this stuff so perhaps I've managed to eliminate the above as a possibility :)

The price is increasing but not too faster, may be when halving will come than the price will going fast but you can't say that no increase. if you see last  2 or 3 months the different the price of the bitcoins going up and up. i hope you will see when halving come the price of bitcoins will cross 800$.

The increase of the halving will be seen after the halving and not before it, I even think when the halving is coming close the bitcoin will lower a bit.
We cannot predict this right now but this are just all speculations of course.

Yeah there is full possibility that we will see higher price after the halving and not before that, I hope people will hold their coins and not sell if price is lower at halving.

I also hope they will hold their coins till the halving has been happened because its also good for them due to the fact they can than make nice profits.
The halving will have a good affect on the price without any doubts.

i see that my prediction that bitcoin price will not go over $500 this year has high chances to be true...
We are not in the same situation like for the first halving...
the reduction of mined btc is relative less...and the people have fixed the halving effect sooner...

How do you know that already? There is no way to know whether or not the price will show a significant increase from the price right now. Maybe the halving price is already in todays price, and maybe it will go over $500 before the halving. No one can give you an exact answer on that question.

For now there's no increase and its decreased $20 according to preev price.. and i think more people are now converting into eth.. because the price is increased due to fear about price of bitcoin after block halving..

yeah, i have the same theory too but i don't know how true is this theory of mine. it is just like before when the eth price went into the first bubble and attracted a lot of attention due to the hype, the price of bitcoin went down a little because of that and was back up after the eth bubble bursted and now there is the same thing happening again

People jumping into ETH are purely doing it because of their greed. They see Bitcoin isn't moving much so they want to jump into ETH hoping to make some good profits. And that's it.

Well..my 'theory' (take this with a grain of salt at one time I drank the Butterly Labs Kool Aid...so you've been warned) :)

Anyway ...there is what 3 years plus of bad press FUD and how evil bitcoin is etc, etc.....So IF there is a significant anti BTC crowd that want to get into a crypto and has a FOMO
it very well could be (right or wrong) ethereum COULD pump to 20 bucks plus.

As a comparison of BTC price $445 and etherum price $14 ...a person could make the case that even a $50 buck coin as an alternative to bitcoin ..due to the FUD is NOT out of the realm of
possibility..if there are a significant amount of people who have been convinced BTC is bad and that ethereum is the 'chosen one" (shudder) as an alternative

so imho sideways at halving (again half the mining and the price of btc stays the same .is no small feat either with etherum and all the negative btc fud imho)...so sideways is my view.

I don't like this much as a concept.

 Hope I'm dead,dead,dead wrong...but have no other way to explain the attraction of etherum at this point in time.

and again ...not slamming btc...I am hoarding 100 btc...but it does give me pause.....(that and trump in USA is the republican presidential candidate..thus lending more credence to the fact Elvis really is alive and has been kidnapped by Roswell Aliens....which I would have given better odds on 9 months ago then Trump being the republican presidential candidate :(

just saying ...its 'weird times" indeed :(

The price of Bitcoin was indeed stable for a long time and that have to change because there are still a lot of people that is waiting for a higher value and that is bad.
Because they also see now that the value of the Bitcoin is not even that high and that have to change soon.

You can already see that the halving is now coming towards indeed but you have to know that it will rise slowly and that it was stable for a long time.
So you dont see now not that much difference but we just have to wait for it on the right moment.

What seems to be happening is that bitcoin approaches $470, the blocks get full and backlogs build, the market reacts and the price falls. We've seen this scenario three times already. I think $470 is a ceiling till the blocksize thing gets resolved.

You should see bitcoin's price going up and up, it is slow but not going down when halving will come than automatically bitcoins price will increase very high, may be it will be 700$ reached. than you should sell your bitcoins because after halving bitcoins price will going down, so it depend on you how you can get profit.

The increase will follow at the end of the halving or after it what people are already saying.
I really think the bitcoin is gonna be very profitable.

just wat until july or so, then we will likely see the effects of the halving.

It's weird to expect the decrease of supply to have an effect before the decrease in supply happened.

Hello.

My name is Sig. Campaign.

I think we all happy when halving take effect. I buy now and wait for halving..me patient..once me see rise me shell = big profit. = Make me happy.com
Then me happy. Because me won big profit.. and all my village happy.

But then we sad... in 5 year time.. we see...silly to sell the bitcoin now...should wait... = bigger profit = more happy.

But we no see big picture....too sad.

Yours Sincerely,

Mr. S. Campaign.

Ether can very well end up reaching $20 per coin as the speculation and the hype around this coin will not fade away after a month or two. It will be an interesting year for sure, but there is also a negative point to this. The closer the Ether market cap is approaching the $2 billion number, the more people will start doubting about Bitcoin if it doesn't move up much higher than $500 this year. The average Bitcoiner is very easy to influence.

All we need is just a little patience

yeah....all the last 3 years of press and btc fud......there could be a place for $50 buck ethereum imho.....if compared to say $500 usd bitcoin......it is not that far fetched.

The question is will it get to say $40 and $50 bucks like Litecoin did back in the day and then fade down to $4 or so or will it actually carve an 'anti-btc' niche out and be the
next 'speculative' coin like litecoin?

I have NO ethereum...but that is the angle I wonder about. How much 'angst' and fomo is there out there about NOT putting $$$ in bitcoin because the 'boat' was missed and it of course from all the FUD is on its last legs...just how far can an 'alternative coin' be hyped in price against say $500 buck bitcoin? Hell if there is such a demand it could 'bubble' to $50 and then stablize at $20 if there are enough kool aid drinking anti bitcoin ethereum bag holders.

crypto always drama.....hell more drama then a Mexican Soap Opera ..if there was such a thing for crypto :)

but hell I've no clue.

Unfortunately.. [or Fortunately] we can't just mine that with ASIC's... so schau ma mal...

The Ethereum price dropping at the moment. It dropped from around 0.033 to 0.027 now. the bitcoin price is rising.

It seems most of the guys holding their bitcoin and hope for a price increase before the halving or after the halving depending on the price. In case the price rises to f.ex. 600USD+ ,Bitcoin will be dumped hard from traders and miners who will cash out!

It is both kind of funny and interesting to watch people are impatient about bitcoin price just because halving is coming.

You have to understand some things first:

1. Halving is not an instant price rise switch on/off. It takes time.
2. There are already more than 15 millions of BTC mined, it is not certain if we need more supply to cover demand.
3. Events of the last halving showed that price will take a long time to corre

The bad thing of the Bitcoin is that it is really hard to predict what is going to happen with Bitcoin and that is because there are now more people that is greedy and that is really bad.
But they have to know that the value will rise soon because it was also already stable for a long time and that have to change.

You do not need to worry any more, the price just rose 20% over the last week. It is a big rise even for bitcoin.

halving still about one month more, but it seems today prices are rising fast enough. I believe this is the effect of halving, and could not imagine when later approached halving prices could increase about $550-600

well price rises now and probably because of halving, lots of people buys because because they want to sell them later after halving, so price rises and fast, 510$ at this moment

and if price wouldn't rise then yes, i think it would be actually strange as this would mean that people shows no interest in bitcoins so this would be very horrible news for bitcoin

Well, now it's really happening, Price is again increasing. In my opinion it's 100% speculation on the halving event, mostly from China.

In last halving event, however, there was only a relatively small price increase in the month the halving occured (November 2012). In the months before halving, price was even going down (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2012-10-01zeg2013-01-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv).

Now it's different, people are already speculating on the event before it occurs. Why?

For me the explanation is: In 2012, Bitcoiners had experienced the short-lived 2011 rally, but were also deeply depressed by the bear market that drove price down to $2 in end-2011. It was not clear that Bitcoin would have the media coverage and success it finally had one year later. So speculation on the halving event was not present.

Now, we have experienced the november 2013 hype and we know how high it can go and how fast "it can happen". People are talking about "halving" everywhere. So, why not buy some BTC to speculate on a price increase? So the prophecy becomes self-fulfilling.

I think price will go a bit higher than now, but maybe not that high as some people think. There is no Willy this year and stronger competition from altcoins with real improvements over BTC.

The reason Bitcoin is going up is due china being aware on Bitcoin in 2016, knowing that it's the best option to move capital out from their increasingly oppressive country + the fundamentals of Bitcoin looking better than ever due the technical improvements like segwit and sidechains really soon + altcoins proving that they are not real competition to Bitcoin. You are delusional if you think otherwise. Look at how all altcoins have gone red when Bitcoin started going up. This is because in the moment of truth, everyone only trusts Bitcoin and wants to be in the winning team, so everyone sells their alts to move to Bitcoin.
No, no altcoin is competition for Bitcoin, stop dreaming.

All things that are happening right now with the price are all due to the upcoming block halving. A few minutes ago I wrote a post telling that the price touched $557 on Bitfinex but it now touched $570!!

Well we got our answer this weekend. Such a high increase as not expected. by no one. If it holds this week then I am confident we can see an even higher increase before the halving.

It should bounce around a bit more before the actual halving. This current rise in my opinion is a bunch of people feeling restless about the halving jumping onto a relatively small China wagon which started because of recent china currency shenanigans.

So I'll buy another $200 in a few days or a week when we see <$500 for a brief bit, then the train will resume steady uphill climb to the top of Mt. Bitcoin

 8)

Why didn't you just buy when the price was sitting between $400-$450 for quite a while? You had enough time to start buying as many coins as possible.

1. True, look at the last halving, the price started to rise almost immediately after the halving, but the real rally (or bubble) didn't start until 5 months later. Then about half a year after that a second bubble happened, bringing the price up to 100 times what it was before the halving, but it took a year to get there after the halving. The price then dropped a lot, but it never came anywhere close to what it was before the halving.

If the same thing happens this time, than by July 2017 we could be at $50k for a short moment, and then drop back to $30k territory. That would be the effect of the halving.

2. Also true, the future halvings may be less impactful because the amount of bitcoins we have to work with is already pretty close to the total amount we will ever have. However, the inflation rate matters too, and bitcoin will finally get below 5% inflation with the next halving.

3. Yes the price will most likely overshoot a lot due to momentum and FOMO and might take 3 years to stabilize, (just in time for the next wave to form).

Yeah that was the best time to buy as price was stuck at same place since long time, I bought at that time and now I am very much satisfied with it.

 I did - but more I was mining and accumulating.

 8-)

Because (1) I bought as many coins as possible at $12 so I'm not in any rush, and (2) 2 weeks ago I was planning to buy but just got lazy

 ;) ;) ;)  :D

There is no need to rush now. The Etheruem price will be around $10-12 for some months to consolidate.

signs when approaching halving the increase already apparent. but we may have to wait 2-3 weeks ahead, because it will be closer to halving. I expect at least get to see $600

Many people are thinking indeed that they have to wait a longer time now until they can sell it with a lot of profit because the value of the Bitcoin was stable for a long time and that is bad.
So it takes now a long time to recover and it will also start to rise soon and that would be nice.

Yeah....I really like 'stodgy" Litecoin with the BTC pump in price (mining titans) currently 4.53 LTC..go baby go.....(LTC you tramp 'camp follower' you....) :)

it's already at 550, i think it may touch 800 by the halving come, double of before, each halving will bring double the price, and if you dump between price correction you cna earn a lot

I think holding till the halving can be really good, as we are seeing quick rise in the price of bitcoin so  majority of us expects that price will be at $800 at halving.

The price of Bitcoin was indeed stable for a long time and that have to change because there are still a lot of people that is waiting for a higher value and that is bad.
Because they also see now that the value of the Bitcoin is not even that high and that have to change soon.

lol I do not see Bitfinex touch $570, I see the highest always huobi and other Chinese market. currently on bitfinex $537 and huobi still the highest $566

As you can see now you see that the halving will be not that good for us and that is because the value is not rising now and that is quite bad for the most people who already is using Bitcoin so please have patience. There is a higher chance that you have to wait a longer time until the value will be more and that we can make some profit with it.

BTC is still at $540 though so it is a good price. Just wondering if the price will slide because the whales could be just baiting us to buy then they'll sell. Once the price dips again, they will buy again.

There is such a possibility. But in the long run, the bitcoin price will rise. As long as you do not sell, it is fine.

Yeah it is logic for the price is increase before the halving is going to star because that keeps the price somewhat in balance. If there is no price rise then the halving is going to bring the price so low again.

Yea, the first theory (China) seems to have various supporters. I still think the speculation on the Halving event has a stronger effect on the actual price increase.

Your second statement is right. Bitcoin is coming out of a little "depression" because of the XT/Core/Classic flamewar. That helps the price to increase, and that's also the reason why I think that we'll never see $300 again (at least in the next years).

But I don't agree at all with your third statement. I'm not an Ethereum supporter (nor do I have some), but from 2013 on, there was never an altcoin that had more than 10% of Bitcoin's market cap (MAYBE Litecoin for a few hours on November 28, 2013) until the actual Ethereum hype. Even if that may be a temporary bubble, it's easy to see on CMC that altcoins' importance is growing.

However, Bitcoin will continue to lead the field at least one, two years more. Then I cannot guarantee for nothing ;)