Bitcoin Forum

One or more big players are at this point selling off to induce a selling panic. :)

I can't see any other reason for the selloffs. Anyone wanting to offload coins would not do it like this. It's like wasting money, as it's better to gradually offload it at higher prices than just selling down like this.


So, probably their goal is to buy bitcoins at lower prices, or it could be an attempt to damage the bitcoin economy (but I do not think that's very plausible).

We saw apparently that there was a 210K sell wall earlier, been mentioned several places, if one person or a group of persons have that amount of coins, they can basically play the market exactly as they want.

I wouldn't worry too much though, as price most often tend to go back to where it was at, or slightly higher or lower after a rapid decrease or increase, unless of course it's one of the few occasions where it doesn't follow that rule.

While the rise in summer 2011 to 32 was only fueled by dreams and not much consistancy, at this point in time there are quite a few more drivers in the bitcoin economy, so I do not think us seeing 26 this time is a bubble. I would think that this time we would easily see prices of 50+, and then perhaps some crash back to 20ish, I don't believe there would be possible to have a crash down to single digits this time, unless it was manipulator driven, and even with that amount of coins being sold, the market would recover, and a lot of people would jump onto the possibility of getting cheap coins. The upwards pressure and the indicators for bitcoin is pointing upward at this point in time, althoug we will not have a linear increase, and there will be corrections along the way.

I could ofcourse be wrong, and the sales just being panic sales, but since the sales are consisting of considereable amount of coins, I would think those sales are from skilled traders, as most newbe traders don't invest that much. It could very well be some snirky city boys (or one) sitting giggling in his office playing with his new toy.

http://www.onlineinvestingai.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/stock-trader.jpg

My thoughts exactly. The seller's plan could backfire if the price doesn't drop further after he stops selling. My guess is the plan will work though since when people come to look at the price and all the sudden it's 21 dollars they will sell reducing it even further causing the panic. I bet it will drop down to 14ish and then pop back up to 17-18 for a bit.

i see this over and over again but disagree

doing it slowly increases the very real risk that someone else with a similar amount of coins gets in and dumps before you do. it's a game of chicken.

I'd bet quite a large amount is panic sales

True that, but most of the time, there are no sudden big increases or big decreases in the price. So the possibility that if you use 2 hours to offload your coins at about the current price, the possibility of the price increasing dramatically or decreasing significantly during that time is pretty low. Therefore I have an issue buying your argument.

It would be a bit like rushing into a gas station to buy a hotdog, because there could be someone else coming in front of you and making it hard for you, for instance if a buss with soccer players just stopped, and they were all hungry and needed food. Most of the time though, there will be no rush, and you will get your hotdog without issues.

aaaaand we're back to slightly below 25  ;D

already back to 25!  Panic sellers are crying... manipulators are in shock :-)

Seriously lol,

Id say a big portion was maybe one big hand but the rest who panic sold and are forced to buy back in higher

GOOD JOB

Unlikely.  There are not that many large volume sellers.  

It is easily explained without much work, it is stupidity.  

http://qkme.me/3szf4v

i think bitcoin was high really high, someone sold a bunch and then other then and other, faster and faster... and then Panic!Panic!Panic!Panic!

their isn't one person making these moves happen, its just people being people, bitcoin is high and everyone wants to get out at the top, not hard to see why they think 24 - 26 could be the top...

High? Wait till we're trading at 100ish. :D

Someone was so keen to sell that they've left MtGox Live battered, bruised and broken.  I need my pretty chart of the carnage :-)

Maybe not as pretty, but it gives some info:
http://bitcoinity.org/markets

They just wanted a red candle.

That was the first flash crash that I remember, usually takes couple of days to recover, this one was instant. Meaning - there's a lot of demand for coins at lower prices. Stable growth.

Fuck me if that is true

Valentine's day? Red candle? Makes sense!

It's called a V-Reversal. It happens when irrational traders panic, then the saavy ones pick up the bargains. A transfer from the weak hands to the strong. This occurs in regular equity and commodity futures markets, too.

But keep on going with the "Master Manipulator" theory, its amusing to watch the group psychosis play out.

While there has CLEARLY been huge manipulation in the bitcoin market by market making whales, this sell off may have just been a correction. But the topic of if a BIG PLAYER out there has been pushing BTC around for periods of its history isn't really up to debate. You can see the super walls in plain sight. Pirate40 publicly said he was doing this.

red candle today, green candle tomorrow!

This is what $600,000 of profit-taking looks like:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=700&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=10&i=30-min&c=1&s=2013-02-14&e=2013-02-15&Prev=&Next=&t=O&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=1&i1=Vol&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

AKA how to make 20% in four hours if you knew when to buy and sell.

I really doubt this was one person did you even try to use gox during these times, was near impossible to even load up let alone throw in successful orders

it worked fine for me throughout the crash

I never said it was one entity, probably a bunch of people that imagined June 2011 happening all over again:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=600&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=10&i=Hourly&c=1&s=2011-06-09&e=2011-06-12&Prev=&Next=&t=W&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

The difference is we made a higher high this time.

price is not the only piece of data. we'd already be sliding into the downtrend if it weren't for the irrational bulls who pushed it up to new highs. the speed of the recovery simply goes to show how hot the flames expanding this balloon are. it's all hot air though. just wait, the knife was the sign...

Yeah, so I couldn't let this one slide. (no pun intended)

You think we broke three bucks and bounced back because of "irrational bulls"? Listen, everyone was looking for a retrace, even me, and it didn't materialize - not like I thought it would. If there was word ONE that was true about your wish, we wouldn't be trading at 20 PLUS. We'd be at 14 or UNDER.

Seriously, we get a big sell event and it isn't enough to break the uptrend? What does that tell you?

I know what it means to me...

Could it have been a dump & pump ?   ;D

you don't understand. price moves of this magnitude in this short of a time frame are not sustainable. as the price climbs higher and higher, all of those coins bought at $5 and below (less than a year ago, mind you) become REALLY REALLY tempting to take profit on. the price is so high now because as this rally gained steam, asks were pulled higher and higher, skewing the supply. the price is inflated; the huge sell-off is proof of this. $26 was someone's price-point and going higher will continue to trigger more and more of these kinds of sell-offs. the fact that we moved three bucks down and back so quickly indicates to me that there are amateur bulls who will buy at any price, as long as it was lower than what bitcoin was worth yesterday. this is not sound trading. no wonder the price is bubbling up.

the knife was the smart money exiting the stage in response to the growing risk of holding the bag when another big player cashes out. we've reached a top, and smart money will continue to leave, while transferring coins from 'weak' hands to 'strong hands'. this is a good thing, as we need a real correction to this insanity, but it won't leave the BTCUSD rate unscathed. expect a midterm downtrend.

hot air? this is fundamental growth. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=143973.0

And it only becomes tempting to sell if you think we have hit the top. Not many of us around here think that is the case.

the knife says at least one of us, if not many, do.

The knife (read: pig) would have earned at least 10% more in fiat if he had sold slowly at $26

that knife was everyone who expected a serious correction. turns out a lot of people did. i imagine the buyers who brought us back up to trend so quickly don't even understand why we might need such a thing and expect continued exponential growth forever (totally sustainable right? just find ten more people, and you get 10% of their earnings, and each of those people find ten people, etc...)

we are easily in bubble territory, and the knife was an exit sign. bulls, you may be right, but tread with caution. we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale in almost two months.

http://s3.postimage.org/hylpfx55f/winterbubbletop.png

bearish divergence [in the Rate of Change] shows how the knife affected the price momentum, even though we reached new highs.

Please make a bigger chart

EDIT: Cherry picking again. Please look at 6-hr and daily charts

sarcasm?


6-hr shows even momentum, still contradicting the rising price. and daily chart averages over the v-reversal price action completely. this is the second time you've accused me of cherry picking, and if you're going to trash my analysis so easily i'd appreciate it if you posted a chart yourself showing contradictory data or put any effort into the dialogue at all.

you're not even right. every chart, regardless of scale, shows the same exact data. i picked the largest interval i could without completely losing granularity. the only reason the daily chart doesn't match with my analysis is because it averages across the entire high volatility section of the price action, which is what im trying to comment on.

No.....just can't read your tiny charts.....


At least I would call it inconclusive, but you tend to show the bearish-est one

And those jokers (read: Adam) just got shook so hard their pockets are barren.
It's cool though, don't learn your lesson. More bad advice please!

Also, if you could draw some more arbitrary lines on one indicator to make your case, that would be great. Thanks bro.

quoted for posterity.

Its a typical sign for the end phase of an extended rally that bears are being ridiculed.


Of course this doesn't indicate what exactly is the top. It could be 27.5, it could be 33ish. It doesn't really matter (letting aside risky short term speculation gains or losses)

IDK man, I'd typically agree but Bitcoin is unlike anything the world has ever seen.
The Reddit news has me PUMPED. The bitcoin subreddit went up like 400 users yesterday.

I kinda wonder what bears have to go by besides patterns they think they see in charts. Do they take into account current newsworthy developments. Do they take into account new potential markets opening up based on announcements? Would they be able to recognize patterns that fooled them in the past without observational bias?

But the cool thing is, when you look BACK at the charts, you COULD have predicted every single move. The success rate for backwards prediction is always pretty damn close to 100 percent  ;D

So the theory goes like this:

1) We're in a bubble. We must be, since prices are going up beyond what I feel comfortable with.

2) Since we're in a bubble, it will pop, or "correct" at some point... soon... really

3) Not sure when that correction will come, could be at $27, could be at $33, could be at $124, but when it comes, it will come.

4) Once the correction has happened, I'll let you know about it, and you'll see I was right.

QED  ;D

This is how the big boys play.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-richard-wyckoff-stock-trading-method-2013-2#first-some-context-trading-is-a-lot-like-any-other-merchandising-business-and-liquidity-is-important-1

Yep, nothing new about that except that everybody and their aunt Gracie has been doing that for decades. Eventually, the law of diminishing returns transforms that strategy into a zero-sum game.

Thanks guys, a speculatin thread for the wise.

Im not alone!!

this


also, the ROC is not arbitrary and so trends therein ('my' lines) are also not.

ROC = [(Close - Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)] * 100

ROC tracks price momentum. it is an indisputable fact that this has been decreasing since the knife.

further, as your bullish sentiment and confirmation bias clearly leads you to ignore any bearish analysis that appears on the forum, i should call your attention to this thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=143507.0) where i used multiple indicators to predict the knife, and this thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=143942.0) which contains the basis of the argument i presented here, complete with many more indicators. if i reposted my entire analysis every post i made, no one would have a good time.

but keep making yourself feel better by dismissing every indicator i post as "just one indicator" though, it'll make sure you're the one left holding the bag.

I've been considering this typical scenario in a relatively small market:

One big player accumulated lots of coins at $5 during a long period, and then use some amount of cash to push the price upwards, slowly toward 40 (since the supply is low, it is not difficult to push the price up), and he slowly dump all the coins he accumulated during this rally process

Since the amount he dumped is huge, the price will lose steam after he left and eventually crash down. When this happens, what is going to support BTC price to stay relatively stable?

On a falling price market, every business owners that accept bitcoin will face potential future loss, they will reduce the exposure to BTC, which further accelerate the fall. So people need to have a strong motivation to keep the money flow into BTC when the price is falling

So far the only motivation I can find is scarcity (and those true believers), is there any other motivation? For example, users always get decent discount when buying with BTC, so they have the motivation to exchange for BTC no matter how price goes, and that exchange volume will help to keep the BTC demand up

I am interested if BTC is enough resilient against a deep price drop, because that day will come

Fair enough, but the "knife" turned into a brilliant green candle, the likes of which we haven't seen for some time. The "correction" you called for ended up correcting the other way!
Furthermore, my algos are saying about 4/3 out/in right now, so I'm half and half.

I don't ignore the bearish sentiment, but the bears have been wrong 100% lately.
Don't ignore all the good press looking too hard at indicators. Good way to get first degree burns.

edit: Scratch that. All algos pointing towards insanity.

good press that gets priced in affects the charts. good press that doesn't get priced in doesn't affect the price.

the better advice would be not to get worked up about good press because we don't really know how it will affect the price, and is an unreliable trading indicator.

hint: the 'wordpress rally' started before the actual announcement.

Thats just good old fashioned insider trading, happens in every market. This doesnt mean that news doesnt affect the market for long periods of time. On the contrary, it takes months, even years sometimes for the effect of one release to fully be felt. Your argument seems to stem from a belief that speculators react perfectly to any new market changing announcement within a very short period of time. I would disagree strongly with this. Also, looking at the "wordpress rally" as a singular event which has its little blip(20%?) then passes is not doing this event justice. This was a turning point for bitcoin. Instead of seeing 20% on one day, the impact from this type of an event now means that the rate of growth will increase at X% higher than previously for years to come...

The bitcoin market is so gentle for me. It's like a bunny rabbit.

The swing haven't been very dramatic at all yet. Stocks, bitcoin, everything hasnt really moved that much this year yet.

That will change.

Anyone who holds precious metals probably worries more about that investment than they do about their bitcoins!

Where is a "safe" place to park your money these days?

Could be an oxymoron. Some people like exotic currencies, but that's still paper.

Postdiction? This is how journalists work.
1. Look at the graph
2. Buy a time machine
3. Go back to a previous low and buy
4. Go forward to the top and sell
5. Profit!

Additional bonus: Find a real person who did exactly that, and let him tell the world how smart he is and how dumb everyone else is. "It was like taking money up from the street".

Honestly this market has been nothing short of amazing - even including the swing to 2 bucks.

The volatility and appreciation has provided ample opportunities to trade, and as someone who truly enjoys trading - this has been fantastic.

The conventional equity markets (Dow Jones Index, S&P500 Futures, etc..), are rife with parasitic High-Frequency Trading algorithms and other pitfalls (including high barriers to entry with account minimums and margin requirements), so it only makes sense to stay in the market for BTC.

I wouldn't give it up for anything, really.