Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: deepceleron on February 15, 2013, 02:58:03 AM



Title: Four hours to a new record price! ( + Poll )
Post by: deepceleron on February 15, 2013, 02:58:03 AM
It took just four hours back in June 2011 for the price to rocket from 27 to the still-standing record price of $31.90/BTC:

http://we.lovebitco.in/images/mtgoxrecord.png


Guess what, the price is 27.4 again, the highest Bitcoin has been for it's entire history except for a few fleeting hours on that June 9. We are one button-click away from a new record price!

Will it happen?  ???


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price!
Post by: dree12 on February 15, 2013, 03:05:18 AM
Ironically, I got a "502 Bad Gateway" error when voting for the poll. I guess my option of choice is justified.


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price!
Post by: theymos on February 15, 2013, 03:05:31 AM
I'd buy, but I'm out of USD. :(


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price! ( + Poll )
Post by: Qoheleth on February 15, 2013, 03:13:28 AM
Interesting times.

There's a lot more ask depth these days, though - I doubt it will be a straight shot from 27 to 32 this time around.


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price!
Post by: arepo on February 15, 2013, 03:42:00 AM
I'd buy, but I'm out of USD. :(

you and all of the other irrational bulls. ready for the squeeeeeze


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price! ( + Poll )
Post by: notig on February 15, 2013, 03:43:27 AM
I'd say 3-4 months


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price! ( + Poll )
Post by: dakiller on February 15, 2013, 03:53:01 AM
10 days  ;D

https://i.imgur.com/prORgNV.png
Ignore the scale, was just a copy and paste job in paint


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price! ( + Poll )
Post by: Namworld on February 15, 2013, 01:32:20 PM
I'll raise you with a chart with a less "narrow" view. Increase the timespan a bit and compare to an economic bubble chart:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940.1666660000001&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=EMA&m1=365&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
http://www.novalytica.com/estonomics/macro/bubble2.jpg

I think we might drop down to 8-10, but might rebound and stay around 16-18 USD/BTC. But this last statement doesn't have a lot of research in it. Just a guess on what prices could reach after the bubble pops.


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price!
Post by: mccorvic on February 15, 2013, 03:56:02 PM
I'd buy, but I'm out of USD. :(

you and all of the other irrational bulls. ready for the squeeeeeze

Dude, why are you so mad that you sold too early while the rest of us didn't?

Anyways, I put maybe by the end of the month because it's really hard to tell.  On one hand, we're so flippin' close but, on the other, it's very clear that no one is quite sure what will happen as good news continues to poor in and an unknown number of new buyers are entering the market.  It's also hard to tell what psychological implications are to be had at $30 (if any).  I really thought we'd be stuck at $20 for much longer.

So, in conclusion, I dunno. Maybe?


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price! ( + Poll )
Post by: marhjan on February 15, 2013, 03:58:55 PM
Single digits here we come!!  the correction is near...  WHEEE!!


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price!
Post by: Qoheleth on February 15, 2013, 05:24:54 PM
I'd buy, but I'm out of USD. :(

you and all of the other irrational bulls. ready for the squeeeeeze
No such thing, unless you know of a BTC exchange that supports margin trading. (In which case, being out of USD wouldn't be keeping theymos from buying!)


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price! ( + Poll )
Post by: cbeast on February 15, 2013, 06:15:03 PM
I think coinbase is driving up most of this and they are out of coins atm. There are other ways to get dollars into the market, but they are not as convenient or cheap. I'll have to wait.


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price! ( + Poll )
Post by: BitcoinRate.com on February 15, 2013, 06:55:24 PM
off topic, but is there any idea who/what caused the major dip couple of days ago?


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price! ( + Poll )
Post by: MoonShadow on February 15, 2013, 06:59:54 PM
Single digits here we come!!  the correction is near...  WHEEE!!

I wish.  I'm now kicking myself for deciding not to buy more at $14.


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price!
Post by: dree12 on February 15, 2013, 08:42:53 PM
I'd buy, but I'm out of USD. :(

you and all of the other irrational bulls. ready for the squeeeeeze
No such thing, unless you know of a BTC exchange that supports margin trading. (In which case, being out of USD wouldn't be keeping theymos from buying!)
Bitcoinica.

Seriously, there is icbit.se (http://icbit.se).


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price! ( + Poll )
Post by: xchrix on February 15, 2013, 08:53:19 PM
chart is really lookin like a bubble.
but nobody knows when the bubble pops :) maybe at 30 USD, maybe at 100 USD, 1000 USD??


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price!
Post by: tbcoin on February 15, 2013, 09:21:02 PM
I'd buy, but I'm out of USD. :(

you and all of the other irrational bulls. ready for the squeeeeeze
No such thing, unless you know of a BTC exchange that supports margin trading. (In which case, being out of USD wouldn't be keeping theymos from buying!)
Bitcoinica.

Seriously, there is icbit.se (http://icbit.se).
bitfinex.com (http://bitfinex.com)


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price! ( + Poll )
Post by: MoonShadow on February 15, 2013, 09:44:55 PM
chart is really lookin like a bubble.
but nobody knows when the bubble pops :) maybe at 30 USD, maybe at 100 USD, 1000 USD??

If you believe that it's a bubble, and you still buy more in the hopes that you can sell to the next sucker for more, you deserve whatever outcome that you get.


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price! ( + Poll )
Post by: dree12 on February 15, 2013, 09:46:38 PM
chart is really lookin like a bubble.
but nobody knows when the bubble pops :) maybe at 30 USD, maybe at 100 USD, 1000 USD??

If you believe that it's a bubble, and you still buy more in the hopes that you can sell to the next sucker for more, you deserve whatever outcome that you get.

Most participants in a bubble win something. It's just those left holding the bag that get burned.


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price!
Post by: arepo on February 15, 2013, 09:59:54 PM
I'd buy, but I'm out of USD. :(

you and all of the other irrational bulls. ready for the squeeeeeze

Dude, why are you so mad that you sold too early while the rest of us didn't?

i sold when the price hit a specific price-point beyond which the risk of holding btc was greater than i was comfortable with. everyone can't be rich. are you that confident in your skills at musical chairs? when this bubble finally does pop, i'm sure there will be people with gains smaller than mine who continued to hold past when i sold.


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price! ( + Poll )
Post by: alan2here on February 15, 2013, 10:20:54 PM
I've seen several posts about this in this thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101081

The linked thread could do with trustworthy people in it again, as much as is ever the case around here :¬P I'd like to make sure it's kept up to date.


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price!
Post by: arepo on February 15, 2013, 10:26:28 PM
you and all of the other irrational bulls. ready for the squeeeeeze
No such thing, unless you know of a BTC exchange that supports margin trading. (In which case, being out of USD wouldn't be keeping theymos from buying!)

you don't need leverage for a squeeze to happen, leveraging just magnifies the effect. follow me here: "Everyone can't get rich". this is a zero-sum game. if everyone is out of usd, the price will stall and someone will get spooked. some profit-taking will happen and the coins will move to 'stronger' hands. unless the buying pressure is strong, the price will settle at a lower point. long squeeze.


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price!
Post by: Qoheleth on February 15, 2013, 11:57:06 PM
you don't need leverage for a squeeze to happen, leveraging just magnifies the effect. follow me here: "Everyone can't get rich". this is a zero-sum game. if everyone is out of usd, the price will stall and someone will get spooked. some profit-taking will happen and the coins will move to 'stronger' hands. unless the buying pressure is strong, the price will settle at a lower point. long squeeze.
My impression was that "squeeze" specifically meant the effect of margin positions getting liquidated by a big move, necessitating market action by the margin lenders to recover their principal, leading to a multiplication of the move.

It seems I was mistaken!


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price!
Post by: arepo on February 16, 2013, 01:39:50 AM
[snip]
It seems I was mistaken!

no thats pretty much right. im just saying the same effect where a positive feedback loop causes the multiplication of a move due to traders being forced to cover their positions (automatically or voluntarily) can happen without leverage.


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price! ( + Poll )
Post by: DoomDumas on February 16, 2013, 04:56:14 AM
10 days  ;D

https://i.imgur.com/prORgNV.png
Ignore the scale, was just a copy and paste job in paint

I agree :)  this trends keep up for some time, and did'nt broke even after some serious sell volume.. :)  It will keep this way :)


Title: Re: Four hours to a new record price!
Post by: xxjs on February 17, 2013, 12:43:53 AM
I'd buy, but I'm out of USD. :(

In that case, it is time to sell your daughters!