Bitcoin Forum

Dear friends,

This post is to let you know that the the bubble is about to burst, luckly the price will settle down about 15-20usd/btc after the plunge. Don't fool yourselves, the price of something cannot go up forever. I don't know how further is the bubble going to go, but I'm not going to find out.

Since there is no way to short bitcoins, you'll wake up in a no-bid market soon and suffer an horrendous gap.

I've cashed out almost 95% of my bitcoins at 48.5. Now...it should go down to 20 again :-)

Loaded disagrees with you.

oh well, if you say so  ;D

you can short bitcoins. icbit.se for example.

It's a trap.

A fool and his Bitcoins will soon be parted.

From. My. Cold. Dead. Hands.

That is the spirit.

Bitfinex. There's plenty of BTC loan depth with which to short. But strangely, nobody seems to be biting...

Yes, but without an exit strategy you will ride the opposite side of the wave all the way down to wherever it's going. Look at the chart; this isn't the first time we've had a parabolic rise.

I reckon it's possible it'll go back down to no less than 37-38 in the near term to rejoin the long term exponential growth trend before continuing

http://i246.photobucket.com/albums/gg82/blackreplica/chart_zps1cc91267.png

If it drops below that we may seek support at a much lower level, probably 32 (our last all time high)

Heh... it would have to drop below $2 for me to start losing. I buy, I hold, if it drops, I buy more :-)

The thing about Bitcoin is, it's a really, really good idea  :D

This post is like a bait for bulls.

I've been calling bubble ever since 20

hasn't exactly worked out as i thought   :P

Are you in fiat?
What is your exit strategy?

+1. Why would you hold dollars at a time like this?

Its not over til the fat lady sings.. Ive bought today at $53 thats how much faith I have. I believe $50 is a significant number, and Ive predicted people would begin selling off near this number. Its a psychological thing, I think this is where the volatility, and bounce in value is coming from today.
I honest think the trend will continue upward, but at a much slower pace than we have seen the last couple days. Im in it to win in.

Op how many total btc did u sell today?

While bitcoin is undoubtedly becoming more widely accepted and adopted, this market has grown almost exponentially over the past couple months. I sold at $49. Now I'm waiting for the correction to buy back more than I had before!

Yup. Could crash 50% today. Or march straight to $120 and crash to $60. If you believe in bitcoin long-term, and understand that the price discovery process for bootstrapping a new global currency from nothing is going to crazy wild and unpredictable, how can you have the confidence to sell?

If you're not a long-term bull, sure.

If you sell your bitcoins under $50, you're gonna have a baaaaaad tiiiiiime

Why call it "cash out" when you get back to fiat ...doesn't make sense to me .. But he who am I..!!

The BTC is brandnew technology nothing in the past to compare not even to last years..
.all the good " mainstream" things only happend since the rise started ... before it was mostly scams and sh!t ...

We are only starting to get momentum..!!! Hold on and enjoy the ride..!!!   ;)

Why did I see this post comming?

Got news for you: you coins found the strong hands they needed
and without any malice: use your dollars wise!

OP cant wait to see you eat crow when price jumps $2 tonight.  ;D

I don't. I am using most of it to purchase a real estate property and fund future's contracts.

I also bought phyisical gold and silver. I had a load of bitcoins!

how many did you unload. Just curious ???

why anyone would sell bitcoins to buy gold or silver i have no idea.

Because they have failed to understand Bitcoin on a pretty fundamental level.

Don't get me wrong. I agree with you 100%, but still, on some deep level, they just don't get it.

Are you using some special exchange that sells at gox +5$ prices? :)

Selling 95% is overreacting to a vague "bubble about to burst" thought. Anyway, I hope OP spends wisely and enjoys life...

Cut the guy some slack here. If he was speculating to profit in USD and did then it's hard to argue with his success. Especially on the basis of future potential profits. Even if the price is $100 tomorrow he has won as a speculator.

Why anyone would bother replying to these threads is beyond me.

OP might have sold as little as 10 btc for all we know.

It's still stupid. Even if he bought in at 40, which I highly doubt, selling only 80% at 48 would have covered the investment, and the rest would be available for further long-term growth. Trying to predict peaks and then selling all is not a viable speculation strategy, and only means he's trading based on emotions. Which is stupid.

Such people are caught later, when bitcoins grows to I don't know, 100, and he re-enters with all profits, then bitcoins crash to 20 and he sells in despair, left with heavy losses. I've seen it happen :) Hope this particular OP would be smarter and would waste all profits on booze.

Tonight I'm boozing all my profits on wasted

nice try.

I sold 45% of my stake at 45.50 last night and recouped 120% of my initial investment. Left the remaining 55% on the exchange to ride it out. My goal at the moment is short term trading to get my USD funds up enough to buy one of these:

http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=331429112

Or if BTC goes to the moon:

http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=331757394

Am I doing it right? ;)

Fun! I have an AK and they are great toys.
When you buy, try using bitcoinLook at these:
http://www.gunbroker.com/All/BI.aspx?Keywords=bitcoin&SearchType=1

Oh, don't get me wrong, friend. I would greatly prefer one of these:

http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=331095751

It's a question of funding, though. As always.

Those are both shit, If it goes way up, get a milled arsenal AK and die happy.

If it goes absolutely insane the only other good investment is something like this

http://www.subguns.com/classifieds/index.cgi?db=nfafirearms&website=&language=&session_key=&search_and_display_db_button=on&results_format=long&db_id=21835&query=retrieval

/I only paid $400 for my FULL AUTO AK many years ago.
//Legal too, got the tax stamps to prove it. :D

If you read my post above you will see that I mentioned wanting an arsenal AK but that the price is typically out of reach. Unless I camp gunbroker all day and luck out finding someone selling one for under $1200, they seem to mostly demand $1200-$1500+. BTC would really have to go to the moon to make this reachable for me.

Also, I likely wasn't even a thought in someone's head back when you bought that. ;)

OP sold over 500btc at 48.5 for a 400% return.
And now it's crashing!!!! 43 already!!! Go for 15!!! GO GO GO!

Well, because gold and silver, unlike bitcoin, are money. Bitcoin is electronic and convenient cash, but it is not money. Don't get me wrong, I'm all in for competitive currencies and certainly fiat currencies are a big dump. However, bitcoin cannot be regarded as money: it does not have intrinsic value and needs manteinance.

So, I sell the overbought asset and buy the oversold. It works :-)

You sound just like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania. I have been a speculator for several years and I have a good track record. And there is something I've learnt, let someone else earn the last penny :-) I don't care if bitcoin blow-off top is 60. I made a very good profit, obtained more dry-powder to invest and I'm going again to find oversold assets.

Some crash, the exchange rate is still higher that it was just 12hrs ago.

Congratulations!  What price did you buy in on?  What was your selling strategy?  One big order on Mt.Gox?

It does. Would you say alluminum has intrinsic value? I'd say it has, because it is used build airplanes.
Would you say copper has intrinsic value? It has, because it is used to built circuits.
Gold and Silver have intrinsic value because it has unique phyisical properties which make it the perfect money.

You wouldn't make airplanes with iron because it is too heavy.
You wouldn't make circuits with lead because it is not conductor.
You wouldn't make money with anything else than gold and silver, because it will rot over time or need manteinance.

http://www.pointzero-trading.com/Blog/view/1

At about 13. I sold at 48,5. I don't care missing the top, I had other investments to fund.
And I'm warning!! The price is VERTICAL. That can't go on forever, but who knows how will the blow-off top be.

Im selling too. Im going to keep half my btc for a few years no matter what, the other half is mostly sold now as I do expect a major correction. If Im wrong, then thats good news for my remaining half.  Cant lose either way.

I only had like 5 bitcoins which I bought at $20 during the last bubble (I was trying to buy them at 10, but deposits took forever back then!), I did sell one at $40 in case of another price drop.  It's obviously in bubble mode now, but it's completely up in the air how high it will go, and how far back down it will fall.

If you look at http://www.blockchained.com/depth_mtgox.png, the bubble only crashes when selling volume outstrips demand (obviously).  The demand is way higher than the supply right now, so in theory the bubble has a lot more to go.

Back down to 43! LOL. What did you expect after a 30% surge in three days?

Err...back to 39. I sold at the very right time!!! Can't wait to get them back at 10USD.

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[deleted]

I did at 48.5 :-) CRASH! SELL SELL SELL! Bitcoin can remain bullish in the 15-20usd range.

Absolutely crazy swings with a high of $49 and a low of $38 so far today

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As a technical trader, I completely agree with you. Bitcoin has its page in the future, but not tomorrow.

Completely agree, I sold all (3) of my bitcoins at $46.50, made a nice profit.

I can't believe the amount of people I have seen calling those who sold at ~45 idiots..Anybody who is in denial about this being a bubble is an idiot. Bubbles happen, especially with such a new, unestablished currency.

Me too! I can't wait to get them back at 15usd.

I have a buy order at $22 :D

Not selling is not stupid if you are not a speculator or if you invest on a long timescale. A lot of new bitcoin peers seem to have the impression that bitcoin is an "investment". It was not designed to be one and anyone who wants to speculate in an unregulated market is free to do so, but should be prepared for heavy losses.  Remember the golden rule for investing. If you can't afford to loose 100% of your investment, then you are investing too much.

Sure? Because it was designed to be exactly that. "Price deflation encourages an increase in hoarding — hence savings — which in turn tends to lower interest rates and increase the incentive for entrepreneurs to invest in projects of longer term."

As you can see, interest rates are already heavily skewed in bitcoin favor due to deflation built into bitcoins - 60% USD rate, 3% BTC rate on bitfinex. It very much is a long-term investment with low interest rates which can empower pure-bitcoin businesses to develop without worrying that their debt is growing astronomically. It is - in fiat terms, but at the same time it is not - if your business does not cross bitcoin boundaries. Once that would be fully possible for business other than S.DICE and the likes, we will see the world economy reborn. Not this year though. 2050 or so.

Bitcoin is not an investment. It does not produce anything and has no physical value.
Would you say holding dollars is investing? The same apllies to bitcoin.
A currency is only valuable if it circulates, but you guys are hoarding it.
You are in for a rude awakening some day.

I hear you. I don't "invest" in bitcoin. I use it to buy things over the internet. Speculate away, but it's not for me. 

this is complete bullshit. a commodity has value when people value it, period. look up gold. it is used for transfer of wealth and storage of wealth. why inflationary debt-based currencies backed only by regulations can not be used for storage and are only used for short-term transfers of wealth? well, take a wild guess.

and something to think about for you - all the printed fiat money - ALL OF THEM, every single cent - are currently "hoarded" by someone. even though they are losing value at a tremendous pace. it's like a hot potato - you get it and try to get rid of it as soon as possible, to the next fool. the reason you don't notice this is because you've done this for all your life.

I agree with you 100%. I just don't see how hoarding bits is different from hoarding paper.

Hey I'm a great supported of bitcoin, it is the currency of the future. But it won't get there overnight.

A serious correction in price must take place.

I also agree with what you said.
I think some other run up is from the purchase a bitcoin mining rigs. Like Avalon, perhaps BFL. The other is the favorable press. Should be interesting to see how things shake out over the next month or so. With the many, many mining rigs.

The problem that I am seeing is the people who are selling their coins from FUD right now are feeding strong, cool-headed traders with deep pockets and you are going to have a harder time getting them back. Also, because these deep pockets are so invested in BTC, they are going to continue to buy to grow their stacks, which causes bull rushes. The price crashes we are seeing are these same people laughing their way to the bank when their initial dump causes a panic of people handing their coins over at depressed prices.

I'm a total layman as far as economics goes though, so don't take my opinion as fact.

Here is what I think:

I haven't sold a single one of my bitcoins, despite an obvious likelihood in hindsight that had I sold at $49, I could have bought back less.

In my mind, I compare the hindsight to walking upon a roulette table that has just spun and landed on a red number, and thought that I could have doubled my money had I simply bet on red.

The way I view Bitcoin, I believe there's a reasonable likelihood that some large corporation may decide at any moment that Bitcoin is worth billions, and immediately start buying them in unprecedented quantities.  There are just so many corporate types who haven't heard of bitcoin who are now hearing about it for the first time with all the press.

Giving up my seat on that "rocket" if you will, in exchange for a chance that I might be able to scoop up bitcoins jumping off at 49 and back on at a lower number, is just not worthwhile to me.  If I want to experience that kind of risk, there's BitZino or SatoshiDice waiting to help me out.

People coming out of the woodwork and asking if I can sell them coins, or source coins for them, are now at an all-time-high for me.  I joke with them: "Where were you when it was $10?" and they say "I know!".  The market may have its short term ups and downs, but barring any major catastrophe to Bitcoin as a whole, I see the value of the coins going up as inevitable, possibly tomorrow but possibly next year, and the best thing I can do is sit and hold on.

Those of you with any doubt though, keep selling...there's nothing wrong with you for wanting to sell.  Take your profit and enjoy!

Sorry - but this is completely 100% wrong.  YES holding USD, or Euros or Yen IS investing - ever heard of Forex currency trading?  The hoarding argument that goes, but if you save it, then no one else can spend the coins is rooted very much in the debt-based economy many of us here are trying to break free of.  I'm still rather bearish on btc in the short to medium term, but we part company here

You are the man, Casascius! I cannot agree more with you.

I have reason to believe major investors are already buying bitcoin on all dips and accumulating.  $300 million market cap is pocket change to some people.  You be the judge on how big these investors are.

One could debate, in a way, that you want the greater fool to enter the market so your stash increases in value.
The more fools, the better it goes for existing holders.
I am not seeing people buy bitcoins mainly to get products or services except for drugs and gambling.
For example, i am tired of western unions hefty fees. I will buy 100 btc to send to my family in the philipines. They can get pesos with them to spend on food or rent. That is not what i am seeing and where bitcoin really should be doing well in.

This.

Well, one more thing: people will like to receive bitcoins for the same reason they like to receive cash, from the perspective of taxation.  You don't have to be a drug user or a gambler to see the appeal in that.

+1. And to add to this, I feel like selling to catch a potential 20-50% dip entails an equal likelihood of missing a 50-100% run-up. If you believe that bitcoin (barring fundamental failure) will get to triple digits or more, you have to acknowledge that it won't be a steady rise. There will be small runups that correct a little quickly, and there will be huge runups that double or triple the price before correcting.

I think most people who think they can time the market are fooling themselves. There's a lot of selective memory bias, and misunderstanding of statistical significance in human nature.

So, if you sell because you either need the money now, or don't think bitcoin will achieve considerably greater value in the future, great, you're making a rational move. It's the (supposed) long-term bulls who sell trying to catch a short-term dip that I don't understand.

FWIW, I've also never sold a single coin. I've *given* away a few Casascius coins as gifts, but that's it.

Sure. I did it myself. But if it was a large sum of money that is noticable i doubt i would still do the same thing. And by large i mean tens of thousands or more paid to me at once.

I am not saying bitcoin does not have advantages in many ways. It clearly does. I just do not think this current run up in price is organic. It feels like a mad rush to get in on the next big thing... Hence the greater fool being played out short term at least.