Bubble! I've just sold!!

[RodeoX]

Not selling is not stupid if you are not a speculator or if you invest on a long timescale. A lot of new bitcoin peers seem to have the impression that bitcoin is an "investment". It was not designed to be one and anyone who wants to speculate in an unregulated market is free to do so, but should be prepared for heavy losses.  Remember the golden rule for investing. If you can't afford to loose 100% of your investment, then you are investing too much.

[piramida]

A lot of new bitcoin peers seem to have the impression that bitcoin is an "investment". It was not designed to be one

Sure? Because it was designed to be exactly that. "Price deflation encourages an increase in hoarding — hence savings — which in turn tends to lower interest rates and increase the incentive for entrepreneurs to invest in projects of longer term."

As you can see, interest rates are already heavily skewed in bitcoin favor due to deflation built into bitcoins - 60% USD rate, 3% BTC rate on bitfinex. It very much is a long-term investment with low interest rates which can empower pure-bitcoin businesses to develop without worrying that their debt is growing astronomically. It is - in fiat terms, but at the same time it is not - if your business does not cross bitcoin boundaries. Once that would be fully possible for business other than S.DICE and the likes, we will see the world economy reborn. Not this year though. 2050 or so.

[flaab]

Not selling is not stupid if you are not a speculator or if you invest on a long timescale. A lot of new bitcoin peers seem to have the impression that bitcoin is an "investment". It was not designed to be one and anyone who wants to speculate in an unregulated market is free to do so, but should be prepared for heavy losses.  Remember the golden rule for investing. If you can't afford to loose 100% of your investment, then you are investing too much.

Bitcoin is not an investment. It does not produce anything and has no physical value.
Would you say holding dollars is investing? The same apllies to bitcoin.
A currency is only valuable if it circulates, but you guys are hoarding it.
You are in for a rude awakening some day.

[RodeoX]

Not selling is not stupid if you are not a speculator or if you invest on a long timescale. A lot of new bitcoin peers seem to have the impression that bitcoin is an "investment". It was not designed to be one and anyone who wants to speculate in an unregulated market is free to do so, but should be prepared for heavy losses.  Remember the golden rule for investing. If you can't afford to loose 100% of your investment, then you are investing too much.

Bitcoin is not an investment. It does not produce anything and has no physical value.
Would you say holding dollars is investing? The same apllies to bitcoin.
A currency is only valuable if it circulates, but you guys are hoarding it.
You are in for a rude awakening some day.

I hear you. I don't "invest" in bitcoin. I use it to buy things over the internet. Speculate away, but it's not for me. 

[piramida]

A currency is only valuable if it circulates, but you guys are hoarding it.
You are in for a rude awakening some day.

this is complete bullshit. a commodity has value when people value it, period. look up gold. it is used for transfer of wealth and storage of wealth. why inflationary debt-based currencies backed only by regulations can not be used for storage and are only used for short-term transfers of wealth? well, take a wild guess.

and something to think about for you - all the printed fiat money - ALL OF THEM, every single cent - are currently "hoarded" by someone. even though they are losing value at a tremendous pace. it's like a hot potato - you get it and try to get rid of it as soon as possible, to the next fool. the reason you don't notice this is because you've done this for all your life.

[flaab]

A currency is only valuable if it circulates, but you guys are hoarding it.
You are in for a rude awakening some day.

this is complete bullshit. a commodity has value when people value it, period. look up gold. it is used for transfer of wealth and storage of wealth. why inflationary debt-based currencies backed only by regulations can not be used for storage and are only used for short-term transfers of wealth? well, take a wild guess.

and something to think about for you - all the printed fiat money - ALL OF THEM, every single cent - are currently "hoarded" by someone. even though they are losing value at a tremendous pace. it's like a hot potato - you get it and try to get rid of it as soon as possible, to the next fool. the reason you don't notice this is because you've done this for all your life.

I agree with you 100%. I just don't see how hoarding bits is different from hoarding paper.

Hey I'm a great supported of bitcoin, it is the currency of the future. But it won't get there overnight.

A serious correction in price must take place.

[Vagnavs]

I agree with you 100%. I just don't see how hoarding bits is different from hoarding paper.

Hey I'm a great supported of bitcoin, it is the currency of the future. But it won't get there overnight.

A serious correction in price must take place.

I also agree with what you said.
I think some other run up is from the purchase a bitcoin mining rigs. Like Avalon, perhaps BFL. The other is the favorable press. Should be interesting to see how things shake out over the next month or so. With the many, many mining rigs.

[baggyp]

The problem that I am seeing is the people who are selling their coins from FUD right now are feeding strong, cool-headed traders with deep pockets and you are going to have a harder time getting them back. Also, because these deep pockets are so invested in BTC, they are going to continue to buy to grow their stacks, which causes bull rushes. The price crashes we are seeing are these same people laughing their way to the bank when their initial dump causes a panic of people handing their coins over at depressed prices.

I'm a total layman as far as economics goes though, so don't take my opinion as fact.

[casascius]

Here is what I think:

I haven't sold a single one of my bitcoins, despite an obvious likelihood in hindsight that had I sold at $49, I could have bought back less.

In my mind, I compare the hindsight to walking upon a roulette table that has just spun and landed on a red number, and thought that I could have doubled my money had I simply bet on red.

The way I view Bitcoin, I believe there's a reasonable likelihood that some large corporation may decide at any moment that Bitcoin is worth billions, and immediately start buying them in unprecedented quantities.  There are just so many corporate types who haven't heard of bitcoin who are now hearing about it for the first time with all the press.

Giving up my seat on that "rocket" if you will, in exchange for a chance that I might be able to scoop up bitcoins jumping off at 49 and back on at a lower number, is just not worthwhile to me.  If I want to experience that kind of risk, there's BitZino or SatoshiDice waiting to help me out.

People coming out of the woodwork and asking if I can sell them coins, or source coins for them, are now at an all-time-high for me.  I joke with them: "Where were you when it was $10?" and they say "I know!".  The market may have its short term ups and downs, but barring any major catastrophe to Bitcoin as a whole, I see the value of the coins going up as inevitable, possibly tomorrow but possibly next year, and the best thing I can do is sit and hold on.

Those of you with any doubt though, keep selling...there's nothing wrong with you for wanting to sell.  Take your profit and enjoy!

[marhjan]

Bitcoin is not an investment. It does not produce anything and has no physical value.
Would you say holding dollars is investing? The same apllies to bitcoin.
A currency is only valuable if it circulates, but you guys are hoarding it.
You are in for a rude awakening some day.

Sorry - but this is completely 100% wrong.  YES holding USD, or Euros or Yen IS investing - ever heard of Forex currency trading?  The hoarding argument that goes, but if you save it, then no one else can spend the coins is rooted very much in the debt-based economy many of us here are trying to break free of.  I'm still rather bearish on btc in the short to medium term, but we part company here

[Vladimir]

You are the man, Casascius! I cannot agree more with you.

[jimbobway]

The way I view Bitcoin, I believe there's a reasonable likelihood that some large corporation may decide at any moment that Bitcoin is worth billions, and immediately start buying them in unprecedented quantities.  There are just so many corporate types who haven't heard of bitcoin who are now hearing about it for the first time with all the press.

I have reason to believe major investors are already buying bitcoin on all dips and accumulating.  $300 million market cap is pocket change to some people.  You be the judge on how big these investors are.

[fcmatt]

Here is what I think:

I haven't sold a single one of my bitcoins, despite an obvious likelihood in hindsight that had I sold at $49, I could have bought back less.

In my mind, I compare the hindsight to walking upon a roulette table that has just spun and landed on a red number, and thought that I could have doubled my money had I simply bet on red.

The way I view Bitcoin, I believe there's a reasonable likelihood that some large corporation may decide at any moment that Bitcoin is worth billions, and immediately start buying them in unprecedented quantities.  There are just so many corporate types who haven't heard of bitcoin who are now hearing about it for the first time with all the press.

Giving up my seat on that "rocket" if you will, in exchange for a chance that I might be able to scoop up bitcoins jumping off at 49 and back on at a lower number, is just not worthwhile to me.  If I want to experience that kind of risk, there's BitZino or SatoshiDice waiting to help me out.

People coming out of the woodwork and asking if I can sell them coins, or source coins for them, are now at an all-time-high for me.  I joke with them: "Where were you when it was $10?" and they say "I know!".  The market may have its short term ups and downs, but barring any major catastrophe to Bitcoin as a whole, I see the value of the coins going up as inevitable, possibly tomorrow but possibly next year, and the best thing I can do is sit and hold on.

Those of you with any doubt though, keep selling...there's nothing wrong with you for wanting to sell.  Take your profit and enjoy!

One could debate, in a way, that you want the greater fool to enter the market so your stash increases in value.
The more fools, the better it goes for existing holders.
I am not seeing people buy bitcoins mainly to get products or services except for drugs and gambling.
For example, i am tired of western unions hefty fees. I will buy 100 btc to send to my family in the philipines. They can get pesos with them to spend on food or rent. That is not what i am seeing and where bitcoin really should be doing well in.

[evolve]

I am not seeing people buy bitcoins mainly to get products or services except for drugs and gambling.
For example, i am tired of western unions hefty fees. I will buy 100 btc to send to my family in the philipines. They can get pesos with them to spend on food or rent. That is not what i am seeing and where bitcoin really should be doing well in.

This.

[casascius]

I am not seeing people buy bitcoins mainly to get products or services except for drugs and gambling.
For example, i am tired of western unions hefty fees. I will buy 100 btc to send to my family in the philipines. They can get pesos with them to spend on food or rent. That is not what i am seeing and where bitcoin really should be doing well in.

This.

Well, one more thing: people will like to receive bitcoins for the same reason they like to receive cash, from the perspective of taxation.  You don't have to be a drug user or a gambler to see the appeal in that.

[Melbustus]

Here is what I think:

I haven't sold a single one of my bitcoins, despite an obvious likelihood in hindsight that had I sold at $49, I could have bought back less.

In my mind, I compare the hindsight to walking upon a roulette table that has just spun and landed on a red number, and thought that I could have doubled my money had I simply bet on red.

The way I view Bitcoin, I believe there's a reasonable likelihood that some large corporation may decide at any moment that Bitcoin is worth billions, and immediately start buying them in unprecedented quantities.  There are just so many corporate types who haven't heard of bitcoin who are now hearing about it for the first time with all the press.

Giving up my seat on that "rocket" if you will, in exchange for a chance that I might be able to scoop up bitcoins jumping off at 49 and back on at a lower number, is just not worthwhile to me.  If I want to experience that kind of risk, there's BitZino or SatoshiDice waiting to help me out.

People coming out of the woodwork and asking if I can sell them coins, or source coins for them, are now at an all-time-high for me.  I joke with them: "Where were you when it was $10?" and they say "I know!".  The market may have its short term ups and downs, but barring any major catastrophe to Bitcoin as a whole, I see the value of the coins going up as inevitable, possibly tomorrow but possibly next year, and the best thing I can do is sit and hold on.

Those of you with any doubt though, keep selling...there's nothing wrong with you for wanting to sell.  Take your profit and enjoy!

+1. And to add to this, I feel like selling to catch a potential 20-50% dip entails an equal likelihood of missing a 50-100% run-up. If you believe that bitcoin (barring fundamental failure) will get to triple digits or more, you have to acknowledge that it won't be a steady rise. There will be small runups that correct a little quickly, and there will be huge runups that double or triple the price before correcting.

I think most people who think they can time the market are fooling themselves. There's a lot of selective memory bias, and misunderstanding of statistical significance in human nature.

So, if you sell because you either need the money now, or don't think bitcoin will achieve considerably greater value in the future, great, you're making a rational move. It's the (supposed) long-term bulls who sell trying to catch a short-term dip that I don't understand.

FWIW, I've also never sold a single coin. I've *given* away a few Casascius coins as gifts, but that's it.

[fcmatt]

I am not seeing people buy bitcoins mainly to get products or services except for drugs and gambling.
For example, i am tired of western unions hefty fees. I will buy 100 btc to send to my family in the philipines. They can get pesos with them to spend on food or rent. That is not what i am seeing and where bitcoin really should be doing well in.

This.

Well, one more thing: people will like to receive bitcoins for the same reason they like to receive cash, from the perspective of taxation.  You don't have to be a drug user or a gambler to see the appeal in that.

Sure. I did it myself. But if it was a large sum of money that is noticable i doubt i would still do the same thing. And by large i mean tens of thousands or more paid to me at once.

I am not saying bitcoin does not have advantages in many ways. It clearly does. I just do not think this current run up in price is organic. It feels like a mad rush to get in on the next big thing... Hence the greater fool being played out short term at least.