Bitcoin Forum

Hi guys,

I am new here and will be grateful for your welcoming me aboard. I am an Elliottician and I apply Elliott waves to currencies (forex), gold and bitcoin (BTC/USD). My current analysis suggests that bitcoin price is falling in a third wave and will likely fall to below $100 soon. NB: I know that's a shock to most  ;) . However I will provide more information as time progresses. My chart below is self explanatory (for those who understand the basic Elliott Wave theme) but I will endeavor to bring everyone on board and not lose people through unnecessary jargon.

As shown, I expect bitcoin to bottom at about $85, being the area of the last fourth wave (i.e the converging trend lines) of the rise from about $0 to >$1000 a piece.

http://content.screencast.com/users/mnandii/folders/Jing/media/59ae0130-a440-4e26-87a0-56df98f931d6/2016-07-08_1007.png

How accurate your predictions have been over the years?

$85 doesn't seem possible unless something really bad happens.

http://content.screencast.com/users/mnandii/folders/Jing/media/e5f488a1-a639-4c4f-9610-60a79296e6aa/2016-08-04_1013.png

Bitcoin. Next leg down to below $400 imminent.

good luck with your short ;)

take a look at the beginning of the late 2013 bubble

Activity: 1

 ;)

Should have made this self moderated to keep the trolls out...
Most here will scoff at the idea but yours and my counts, although a little different through 2014, have very similar targets. Another thing is that there is trade data from 2010 until your chart starts in 2012. Another full impulse to $32 happened in 2011 so the $2 low in '12 would have to be a larger degree II.

Thanks for the advice. The trolls are a real bother!

Not too late though. You can delete this thread and start a new one with the same name. With admin self moderation.

I am happy to see another Elliot Wave thread. Can't have enough

Rynindaclem, are you implying that wave B is complete and we have now resumed the downtrend, or is there still a possibility that we have a wave 5 of B to go?

http://content.screencast.com/users/mnandii/folders/Jing/media/88ee6f2d-30d6-471f-8ed9-ab8c55b6aad0/2016-08-20_0709.png

As I've always maintained, I expect bitcoin to fall to below $100 a piece. This chart is the long term one. Bitcoin is falling in wave (3) of {C} of II. Wave {A} is a leading diagonal. Wave {B} is a combination while wave {C} ( fall from 782.12 high, the part labelled (Y) {B} ) is a developing impulse wave where waves (1) and (2) are complete. If bitcoin reaches to below $100 (as I expect), that will be your best opportunity to snatch as many as you can. Remember that once wave II completes , bitcoin will then make a sizable gain to beyond $2000 a piece.

On the 4 Hour Chart below we have a developing wave 3 of (3) which should end somewhere in the $400s.

http://content.screencast.com/users/mnandii/folders/Jing/media/f30da0b3-1876-482a-a397-5037750f7f45/2016-08-20_0745.png

http://content.screencast.com/users/mnandii/folders/Jing/media/d40ca51c-e52a-4978-97e6-3e570760ff19/2016-08-20_0759.png

1 Hour chart. Wave (i) complete. I expect a small upward retracement for wave (ii) which should not exceed $603.71 then a strong continuation of the fall in wave (iii).

OP, you are so full of shit that you should be holding your head in shame!

If anybody had followed your advice when you posted this thread, they would have either:
a) Sold everything they had and cried when the price went up or
b) Held off on buying any bitcoins as they would still be waiting for your imaginary price drop that never came.

You are a FUDder...end of story.

That is likely to happen if some listen to him ;D but hey if that prediction of yours turned out to be true, we will see a price dump because some folks are selling their coins.

I also will do agree with you this is nothing more than FUD, it will never in real world only just into imagination of OP, although at the moment it's bearish but it doesn't make any sense it could drop like this,

@OP look at this thread what they are talking about $2000 in next few months,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1576150.0

;)

The OP probably intended to buy on a small price dip created by this and a hundred other FUD threads he started with newbie accounts. I hope nobody fell for his scammy advice and lost money because of it.

Very careful and correct analysis.
You're right except for one thing. Bitcoin will not recover, it simply can't.
The network will collapse if the prices drop to these levels. Mean time between blocks will be days if not weeks.

Well, one thing we have going for us is that for the n00bs, $85 seems particularly way out in leftfield, so they'll be buying like crazy even at $2-500.

Perfect example of completely misunderstanding bitcoin's value and where it comes from. You can't apply traditional chart analysis to bitcoin - ask Matthecat how that went. Things like elliot wave have no meaning here.

Mathecat was not even doing chart analysis, just gambling (everything he was doing is again and again pointed as stuff not to do in every trading books...). Nonetheless, you can have a look at chesnut and masterluc topic (both using EW), which are probably the most accurate price forecast in the forum (from far away).

Mathecat was a parody.

Jesus Christ! Does the uninformed majority replies to my analysis ever heard of Elliott Waves? Does this mean that this forum is for half wits? Surely if you don't agree with a forecast you should explain your reasons for saying so. But simply dismissing and worse attacking me shows mediocrity on your part. >:(

Keep it up, on that topic or creating a new moderated one. bitcointalk needs more great analysis and not pointless speculation based on one's mood.

#1) People here won't accept an "It's going down" analysis.
#2) I already proved it is possible to use EW to call the markets, but ignorance is bliss, I guess
#3) Trolls and over invested fuck wits*
#4) Self moderated topics go a long way in keeping the bandwagon(ing) to a minimum.

These people are toxic sheep. Arrows pointing up, trains, rockets and moons are the only hieroglyphs they understand and everything else is foreign so unacceptable.

I'll bet you any amount of money bitcoin does not go below $100 then back up to $2000 from here. Your analysis based on elliot waves is seriously half witted because it extrapolates chart data from a time with almost no volume to now. Apply elliot wave analysis to regulated markets, not here unless you like losing your time and money.

stop wasting your time in here, I am sorry but you are making yourself a fool here ... anyone that read 10 minutes about EW knows that what you are saying is BS... !

Lol ok man, good luck waiting for $85 coins and massive good luck to you waiting for $2k coins after that. What a serious bunch of bullshit. The only reason shit like that happened a few years ago is because of the super low volume and most coins owned by 1 or 2 whales. You can see this happen all the time in shitcoin trading, but those days are over for bitcoin. Shit this extreme doesn't happen at all in regulated markets, that's because they don't allow the shenanigans that goes on with crypto trading. Elliot waves make sense there, they don't make sense here.

once again repeating the same nonsense, if one day we get there, it will be thanks to guys like you that will panic sell. That would be a shame as you would have been warned several time in here ... ;)

I believe $2k coins could very well happen, but not after a drop to $85 - that's impossible at this stage of the game.

I am knew here, but I am pretty sure this reasoning was existent and destroyed by each huge dumps bitcoin faced

And in those words of deep wisdom lie the answer to exactly why it can happen  ;)

I signed up for the free content at
www.elliottwave.com

and have done a little research, but since I'm still very new to this,
can someone explain the theory on why coins would have to drop to something as low as $85 before they would go up to $2000?

It seems to me that if coins ever went back down to $85 it would be the result of people using a different coin, etc. (AKA Bitcoin is dead at that point.)

Nobody is saying it *has to* happen ...
Some are just more open-minded to alternate possibilites and paths than others
OP's count looks perfectly valid in EW terms to me, but its not the *only* count

Anyone who utters 'impossible' immediately discredits their position.

Agreed! Another count allows higher highs but not the $40k everyone thinks this "historical III" would go. It would then be followed by an even longer bear market than the 2014-15 one.

...and moves like OP's chart would never happen in traditional stocks, right? https://slack-imgs.com/?c=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tradingview.com%2Fx%2Fn0hVBlgf%2F

97% drop by one of the biggest names in internet. Certain death, of course  ::)

From where we are right now, a drop to sub $100 followed by $2k would be impossible, and I'm not going into the reasons why it's a waste of time. It is you and every other fool disagreeing with me that is discredited. It's all a totally moot point because it's not going to happen, same as the dollar crash isn't going to happen, you tin hat wearing sob.

Nothing is "impossible", but it's more than likely "improbable"
(So maybe we are arguing over semantics.)

I honestly feel like the price is just going to keep going up and down around $100-150 unless something big happens.
We need another big company to start accepting payment in BTC, or the only movement we will see are sharp drops due to panic sales,
(exchange hack etc)
followed by a steady climb back to the original price.

you have elliot waves indicator or not
indicator can make use to MT4, and you have accurate or not in apply to trade with bitcoin

I see contingencies aren't part of your vocab. Well, they're part of mine, because I am not so arrogant as to assume unlikely events are impossible. This does not make one a "tin-hat wearing son-of-a-bitch", rather it makes one circumspect.

If btc dumps below $100 I'm buying as well, but it's that's not going to happen. What exactly are you bringing to this conversation anyway?

Only manna from heaven.

Not sure about that, you'll more probably be peeing your pants and selling your house shouting in your neighbourhood "the end is near".

Nah, I woudn't be doing that. I think the real problem is too many people here haven't come to grips with the fact they missed out of bitcoin. Hoping and praying for a drop to $85 then to $2000 is simply a form of denial - you missed it, get over it. Spending that time and energy trying to find the next alt to go 20x with enough volume to turn your $50k into a million has a much better chance of being part of something huge like that. Of course, another ETH may not happen, but at least there's a chance unlike this elliot wave bitcoin fantasy.

Well that's a sad argument as your whole point was that if btc fell under 100$ you could not get rich quick anymore ...

This EW chart is using real rules and guidelines that have proven their efficiency (it already happened, EW analyst calling for a crash and being called stupid, until it happened), and it's not the only valid count that remains, but every options have to be regarded until one can be choosen due to its higher probabilities of happening.

Well then you better sell all your btc and wait for that drop to $100. Or are you talking your book and have already done that?

Hmm not sure what I shall say about that analysis.
It my be true in theory but Bitcoin has proven so many oracles and experts wrong over the years.
A drop to $85 would create a massive panic and doom scenario where even the hardcore hodlers could get in panic.
I myself doubt we will drop again below $100 without any significant bug in the network.
But good luck (or better not) with your assumption.

I still have plenty of room before I take a loss with bitcoin, and this amount is not allocated to trading, so I won't ever sell them  ;D Nonetheless, I always have some FIAT aside  ;)

This. Also any value lower that $100 or even $300 or even slightly more will cause bitcoin mining to crash.
Economy is not that old branch of science, Industrial Revolution happened 250 years ago and progress happened too fast in short amount of time to create current highly unstable economic markets.

Bitcoin was invented less than decade ago. Trying to measure it purely with standard economic tools is totally missed idea.

Bitcoin price has fallen below miners profitability zones before, so a floor based on that and to think it simply it can't is a fallacy

3 examples way before price went up. From 4 + months ago

https://i.imgur.com/5Pm9xew.png?1

https://i.imgur.com/NmloDPf.png?1

this one is actually from 1 year ago

https://i.imgur.com/3LjkA4c.png?1

So, as we all know actions speak much louder than words, thus you agree with me $85 is insanely unlikely. Why are you blathering on about $85 coins then?

You're thinking in terms of economics. Elliot Wave Theory, and other chart analysis tools, can be viewed as mass psychology tools. Bitcoin may be a new market, but it's controlled by the same, predictable human psychology that has ruled all markets since the stone age.

THIS

LOL @ fucking idiots ITT entertaining the idea of $100/btc when there is absolutely no reason for it go fall that much besides some imaginary chart theories



Yes because bitcoin price movements have been so predictable!

Best answer that sums up my thoughts, you can't apply traditional thinking to new cryptos, if it were true, you would have predicted the $1000 price when it was below $1 and you would have been a millionaire not talking to us here.

done by an EW analyst  :P

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.0

how to anlys price bitcoin with elliott wave
your ready or create indicator can get grafic eliot wave or not
and you use indicator elliot wave where i can download, accurate or not is your indicator elliot wave

One more analysis about big drop in price of btc. Two months after we are on the same place like we use to be. More chances that after this silence price will go up, then down.
I see how many people try to implement some analysis on bitcoin currency without any success. They are trying to do something impossible in my opinion, bitcoin is something new and there isn't any similarities with other currencies. Except one we can spend bitcoins as other currencies.

Did you see my link literally two posts above yours ? or maybe just posting for your sig campaign. ::)

The thing people see is the bad/the wrong. It's like a product... People who hate it voice their opinions the loudest and those who love it, quietly enjoy it. With TA it is no different. On average, most traders are unprofitable. And on average, the ones that are profitable, are wrong more often than they are right. But what (the profitable) TA people have is the ability to see a bad trade and cut losses earlier than the naysayers. People who don't understand how it works will never believe in it. On top of that, they see vastly more "wrong" TA than "right" because of the above mentioned laws of probabilities, and therefore make the biased conclusion that "It just don't work". I say, good for them, now leave the thread! ...the speculation forum! That is what this subforum is for, after all.
A TA thread is for the OP to put his analysis, and the discussion of it. It isn't for everyone with a voice to drop their biased unsubstantiated opinions because Bitcoin. If they think OP is wrong because TA doesn't work and in the same breath say it can only go up, then they themselves are guilty of exactly the same thing they are griping about. If no one can see the future, then why can they?

That's what I was saying in March of 2014 when we were in 600s after 1200.

@mnandii, an update?

It may rise from $ 468, minimum of 2/August, is the wave (2)?

I hold my hand up and admit I don't know shit about elliott wave analysis but my perception is that like any other analysis it is constantly modified by price not doing what it was supposed to, eg this must be wave 3, oh no wait if went the wrong direction maybe that means we are still in wave 2 of a bigger wave or some shit like that.

Having said all that my perception is based on ignorance of the principles of EW. I do find this an interesting thread and also despite my opinion that bitcoin will go a lot higher I am open to the possiblity I am wrong.

To elaborate a bit my own bullish view of bitcoin is based on the wider economic picture in which central banks are holding interest rates at zero or even attempting negative interest rates. Central banks are also doing quantitative easing in Europe, Japan and Britain. Bitcoin is a natural protection against that, as is gold and other hard assets. Bitcoin supply recently halved also which should not be forgotten. Like a few others I find sub $100 btc hard to believe in this climate. Bitcoin is the daddy of crypto and the one which investors will first turn to in crypto space, not Dash or Eth or whatother alt might have arguably superior tech. But as I said above i could be wrong and admit it quite honestly and openly.

Not really.

It is more like a bunch of if statements with varying degrees of probability.

if it is not a wave 3 then ...

it is either a wave b or wave B

etc

this is a correct fundamental. but does not really tell us when the price will go up. I think everyone (in bitcoin land) knows this, so, i find it does not really add any value to where price will head next. Only that price will go up in future.

With EW, we are trying to be more precise (than your staement above) on where price ight head next, while, still agreeing that your fundamentals (above) will push price up (at some point).

Also, CBs could pull out a new card and push this money printing game longer.

There are lots of folks who have been calling for a collapse of the markets be/c of money printing since 2010. Still hasnt happened. Not saying it won't but, you get my drift

Yes kicking the can on the economy is already going longer than I first thought, who knows how long it can continue?

If you can trade profitably using EW good on ya. I won't be selling at these levels though, to me it doesn't feel like that was a top. Which I will regret of course if $85 btc does come along. But even if price starts crashing I probably won't sell anything, I hate selling into falling prices.

Looking at my own charts which I use more of a trend based analysis I won't like to see bitcoin heading below $530 which is below the bull fork I'm following, if that happens maybe I consider selling some

Can break higher.

Thats why i am bullish in the short term. First looking at $650, then $700. Can't say much beyond that. Also As per my trade on Ryan's bit simulator :) But i am biased, and cautious of a top.

BTW I like you pitch forks. Keep 'em coming!

Here is a chart i saw today. Kinda speaks to where the market is now

Yeah, jeez, how long can they continue to just kick the can on the economy? its not like civilization is depending on it - oh, wait....

Thanks for that chart, it really puts things in perspective.

My noob count and question. Does this make any sense? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1733053

So what do we take from this post, that this so called Elliot Wave expert is really f'g bad at EW analysis, or that EW analysis doesn't apply to bitcoin?

For those who think EW analysis applies, what are your thoughts as to what wave we are in?

We are entering moon wave. That's all I am going to say at this time.

You can quote me a couple of years from now and show me how wrong I were.....

EW does not apply to Cryptocurrency imo, it apply's to stocks and forex, cryptocurrency is still very emotional and being controlled by the big moneys. EW can apply when the market players are actually subject to the same rules

I'm inclined to agree, as the 2013 pump was completely artificial and the resulting dump was simply not normal market behavior as well. However, some guy (I'd have to find it) predicted a big surge in alts compared to bitcoin this year before it happened using Elliot wave analysis, and he was dead on. So still not sure.

Masterluc/Lucif has been pretty good with his long-term calls over the years using, among other things, a lot of EW to establish price targets and tops/bottoms.

now the price is $4000 now ,i think you are wrong about the bitcoin ,bitcoin is not like other thing