Bitcoin Forum

Other => Archival => Topic started by: philipma1957 on July 19, 2016, 03:18:51 AM



Title: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 19, 2016, 03:18:51 AM
Okay first off VRobb  was the winner of last contest 50 usd in btc.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1538811.msg15471616#msg15471616
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1538811.msg15630301#msg15630301
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1538811.msg15630787#msg15630787




 So  a >>>>>     New game.

PICKS BEGIN AT 1116


When game began about 20 months ago coins were about 200 usd  0.10 btc was about 20 usd. we paid  in .10 btc numbers.  Our first donator to the game  spent over 2.8 coins.  I have been the sole payer for the last 4 months and have paid .9 coins  so 3.7 coins have been awarded for free, nada, nothing  no cost.  I am still able to do this due to my signature fee.  Which I put into payments here.


First rule is I decide all rules since it is a free chance to get some coin.
Second rule is you need to be  a forum member since April 15th of 2016
Third rule is you need to have made 30 posts.  I will read them and decide if you appear to be real.
Fourth rule is if I think you are double dipping your picks won't be allowed
Fifth rule is we open picks at 1116 and end picks at 716   just about 2.5 days to pick.
Sixth rule is  this is for fun so I tend to allow off topic and don't delete very much.
Seventh rule is your pick should look like  -1.2 = philipma1957 or   +1.2 = philipma1957
Eight rule is  if you pick a used pick I will assign a pick to you and you are stuck with the one I assign.
Ninth rule no pick changes
Tenth rule no pre picks via pm's
Eleven rule no late picks.

Anything I missed above feel free to mention.

I self mod due to seriouscoin
I always pick -1.2 due to seriouscoin




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   213,066,572,865 (-0.20%)

Adjust time:   After 1988 Blocks, About 13.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,615,967,409 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.5 minutes
Updated:   23:20 (2.3 minutes ago)

current numbers above  I notice some graph issues between two websites.
bitcoinwisdom seems to have a false spike

I need to look into the issue.  if we need to change sites for official diff numbers I will
https://i.imgur.com/3jmgScv.png


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: alh on July 19, 2016, 07:29:13 AM
So, the question in my mind is: How closely will the deployment of the S9's that are for sale match the shutdown of less efficient gear that should fall off the network? The halving must have rendered at least some gear unprofitable to run. The price of BTC doesn't seem to be going anywhere for the moment. This current difficulty period is all at 12.5BTC reward. The only unknown for the next 2 weeks is BTC price, and that appears moderately stable.

I wonder the extent to which Bitmain has been replacing S7's with equivalent hash (i.e. stable hashrate), and not stable power consumption (2-3x hashrate increase).

Thanks again for running this, Phil. 


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start!
Post by: Cuidler on July 19, 2016, 08:34:52 AM
So, the question in my mind is: How closely will the deployment of the S9's that are for sale match the shutdown of less efficient gear that should fall off the network? The halving must have rendered at least some gear unprofitable to run.

I wonder the extent to which Bitmain has been replacing S7's with equivalent hash (i.e. stable hashrate), and not stable power consumption (2-3x hashrate increase).


If many people really switching off, you should see increased supply of such mining equipment for sale on ebay, mostly S4, S5 and S7 stuff, the older stuff had to mine on free electricity even before the halving I guess. Some might switch off and just wait if price increase, but there should be enought of those who try to sell on ebay instead thus increasing the supply of older mining equipment on market. I dont see any dramatic reduction on ebays prices so far, which increased supply should make.

About Bitmain replacing S7s for S9s on its own mining farm, it makes most sence to replace and sell the S7s before you even start selling the S9s. So I guess they run S9s only already and the increased difficulty in last months is the new Bitmain S9s mining farm equealing to their own 3x hashrate increase, while the replaced S7s already sold.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 19, 2016, 03:40:48 PM
So, the question in my mind is: How closely will the deployment of the S9's that are for sale match the shutdown of less efficient gear that should fall off the network? The halving must have rendered at least some gear unprofitable to run.

I wonder the extent to which Bitmain has been replacing S7's with equivalent hash (i.e. stable hashrate), and not stable power consumption (2-3x hashrate increase).


If many people really switching off, you should see increased supply of such mining equipment for sale on ebay, mostly S4, S5 and S7 stuff, the older stuff had to mine on free electricity even before the halving I guess. Some might switch off and just wait if price increase, but there should be enought of those who try to sell on ebay instead thus increasing the supply of older mining equipment on market. I dont see any dramatic reduction on ebays prices so far, which increased supply should make.

About Bitmain replacing S7s for S9s on its own mining farm, it makes most sence to replace and sell the S7s before you even start selling the S9s. So I guess they run S9s only already and the increased difficulty in last months is the new Bitmain S9s mining farm equealing to their own 3x hashrate increase, while the replaced S7s already sold.

  As I have mentioned graphs right now seem to be wrong:

no new info for 9 days
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png


the gray line  on bitcoinwisdom is not correct.
we never did the 1650ph it shows for yesterday

So two of three major sites are wrong

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   210,022,326,414 (-1.63%)
Adjust time:   After 1932 Blocks, About 13.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,563,972,978 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   11:35 (3.8 minutes ago)



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1468942505



http://nextdifficulty.com/

https://i.imgur.com/ZC50FSo.png


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: alh on July 20, 2016, 05:16:39 AM
It may be that we are starting to see an effect of the halving on difficulty. Both bitcoinwisdom (-1.98%) and nextdifficulty (-2.1%) are showing difficulty decreases. We'll have to see how it actually works over the next 12-13 days, but this might actually be "real".

BTC price still at $673.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: notlist3d on July 20, 2016, 06:27:20 AM
It may be that we are starting to see an effect of the halving on difficulty. Both bitcoinwisdom (-1.98%) and nextdifficulty (-2.1%) are showing difficulty decreases. We'll have to see how it actually works over the next 12-13 days, but this might actually be "real".

BTC price still at $673.

I'm wondering the same if finally some miners are going offline.  I thought leading up to halving we would see a lot bigger increase which I was happily wrong on. Really it is pretty pretty slow on dropping off on old gear.   I would really like to see drop off how much is home/hobby miners vs big miners.  If you think about it a lot of these bigger mines spent a good amount of money upfront for info structure (cooling, wiring, etc).    So it would make sense they might re-invest.

I am happy with BTC price though it's been pretty steady.   No big drop off on value side has been a great thing for those long term holding. 


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 20, 2016, 01:17:56 PM
It may be that we are starting to see an effect of the halving on difficulty. Both bitcoinwisdom (-1.98%) and nextdifficulty (-2.1%) are showing difficulty decreases. We'll have to see how it actually works over the next 12-13 days, but this might actually be "real".

BTC price still at $673.

I'm wondering the same if finally some miners are going offline.  I thought leading up to halving we would see a lot bigger increase which I was happily wrong on. Really it is pretty pretty slow on dropping off on old gear.   I would really like to see drop off how much is home/hobby miners vs big miners.  If you think about it a lot of these bigger mines spent a good amount of money upfront for info structure (cooling, wiring, etc).    So it would make sense they might re-invest.

I am happy with BTC price though it's been pretty steady.   No big drop off on value side has been a great thing for those long term holding. 

well  +1 %  0% -2%  all work for those that purchased s-9's early.

remember  1200ph of the network is old gear.

 400PH older then s-7 
 800ph s-7+ avalon 6 
 400 ph s-9

all approximate but not far off.

So  you had cheap power 5.646 cents cents  and 20ph in s-5's

before the ½ ing your farm would be earning  14912 usd a day
after the ½ ing your farm would be earning        3.40 usd per day

you figure I will mine for a bit as I am not losing  so you mine 10 days.

and you now decide I will swap out s-5's slowly for s-9's

why slowly you are not losing money so why rush.

As for why aren't you listing the 20,000 s-5's on ebay  simple you are a chinese farm  and you don't list on ebay





Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: alh on July 20, 2016, 04:55:41 PM
Besides, if you want to replace the 20PH with S9 hardware, you'll need to purchase at least 1700 of them. Even with a discount, that will be significant money to send off to Bitmain. I wonder what kind of terms you get if you offer to buy 1700 S9 units from Bitmain?


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: leowonderful on July 20, 2016, 07:50:21 PM
Besides, if you want to replace the 20PH with S9 hardware, you'll need to purchase at least 1700 of them. Even with a discount, that will be significant money to send off to Bitmain. I wonder what kind of terms you get if you offer to buy 1700 S9 units from Bitmain?
Probably nearly no discount at all. They'll just yawn like it happens every day and offer you 3.1% discount. A substantial amount of the network is used gear, and not all of it will turn off; Most people with S7s and Avalon 6s must have pretty cheap electricity, since difficulty hasn't really moved much at all. Difficulty will almost certainly drop, but we don't know how much at this point. It could go from 1% to 10%, as this is a pretty uncertain point. Even the network hashrate shows this as hashpower has been in flux for a few days now.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 20, 2016, 07:53:06 PM
Besides, if you want to replace the 20PH with S9 hardware, you'll need to purchase at least 1700 of them. Even with a discount, that will be significant money to send off to Bitmain. I wonder what kind of terms you get if you offer to buy 1700 S9 units from Bitmain?

and lets say   this pretend farm does 5 s-9's a week  in a week  he gains 60th but he can take 50 s-5's off line.

losing 57.5 th

 net hash rate gain = 2.5 th

power savings 7000 watts  for the near gear adds on but 30,000 watts drops

So that is 23 kwatts saved which is 552 kwatts per day and 3864 kwatts saved in a week.  that is 220 usd in power savings with a gain in 2.5th hash rate.

So this 20ph s-5 farm should simply add 5 s-9s a week for now since price is high.
If and when price drops he can speed up his conversion.



now that is the s-5 guy with cheap power.

if you are 20ph in s-7's  with 6 cent power  just mine and hold your coins



Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start!
Post by: Mikestang on July 20, 2016, 09:51:19 PM
  As I have mentioned graphs right now seem to be wrong:


the gray line  on bitcoinwisdom is not correct.
we never did the 1650ph it shows for yesterday

So two of three major sites are wrong


So it has me wondering, were the "spikes" we were seeing on the bitcoinwisdom graphs for all these adjustments fake spikes?  Did the number of solved blocks during those spikes correspond with the rise and fall of network hash rate?  I honestly didn't pay that close of attention, but now it brings to question many months of data tracking.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 20, 2016, 10:05:50 PM
  As I have mentioned graphs right now seem to be wrong:


the gray line  on bitcoinwisdom is not correct.
we never did the 1650ph it shows for yesterday

So two of three major sites are wrong


So it has me wondering, were the "spikes" we were seeing on the bitcoinwisdom graphs for all these adjustments fake spikes?  Did the number of solved blocks during those spikes correspond with the rise and fall of network hash rate?  I honestly didn't pay that close of attention, but now it brings to question many months of data tracking.

I checked  back at random since nov.  all seem good before the ½ing but a lot of graph data after ½ ing is wrong.

It is a big undertaking to fully analyze it.  But fast checks seem to show issues started after ½ing.  I think that all sites have not fully updated their soft ware


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: TheYankeesWin! on July 21, 2016, 02:45:40 AM
Then Phil please do a real world or real time difficulty %.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 21, 2016, 02:54:35 AM
As a Mets fan I should say no ,but your Yankees are not winning much so here goes.

421642 (Main Chain)   2016-07-21 02:40:53

421344 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:22:42


299 blocks made.


2 days 3 hours 20 min

288
  18
    2

308 = 0%

so 299/308-1 = -2.92%
but a long way to go.



look below at this trend


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s
Jul 04 2016   213,398,925,331   1.88%   1,527,569,009 GH/s
Jun 21 2016   209,453,158,595   6.83%   1,499,324,110 GH/s
Jun 08 2016   196,061,423,940   -1.63%   1,403,462,340 GH/s
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s



So May 12 to July 20    1,390,530,167    to     1,483,613,935  in hash rate  not so bad


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: VRobb on July 21, 2016, 04:58:43 PM
Hey philip I got a quick question: How would the halving interfere with any of the sites hash calculations?  If you don't update the block reward then that part will be wrong, sure, but how do they f-up the hash calc?  If you know blocks expected, blocks found, and difficulty what's the problem? 

smh  ???


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 21, 2016, 05:06:35 PM
Hey philip I got a quick question: How would the halving interfere with any of the sites hash calculations?  If you don't update the block reward than that part will be wrong, sure, but how do they f-up the hash calc?  If you know blocks expected, blocks found, and difficulty what's the problem?  

smh  ???

I am not sure and I don't want to put on a tinfoil hat, but  it is  the spec thread  so  how about it is deliberate to deceive  newer investors?

Now that is the true tinfoil hat/ conspiracy spec.


Not saying that.

this is still out of date
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png

so it can not be checked against here.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1469120420


this one below seems to be the best graph


https://i.imgur.com/xhVLl1A.png


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: d57heinz on July 21, 2016, 05:17:12 PM
As a Mets fan I should say no ,but your Yankees are not winning much so here goes.

........

hehe.  finally got a series win on ya from the cubs:)  tough team on us last few series.  got a quick question.  s7 what is good freq to go with .. its nasty today and next couple days here.. heat index of 110f.  humidity if off the charts.  im already pushing 70 c only on the center board and outer boards are a couple c less.  running at 700mhz but from my tests at home it seems 600 would quit hashing after a while.  Also same with 625.  what is min i should go with and not have issues?  Thanks


on the diff.. looks like we seeing a drop.. hope thats not a precursor to the price;/. i was hoping to see a nice upswing but seems to be struggling.. eth is just blowing my mind how well its holding and rising.. coinbase just added it to the coinbase.com side.https://blog.coinbase.com/2016/07/21/coinbase-adds-support-for-ethereum/ (https://blog.coinbase.com/2016/07/21/coinbase-adds-support-for-ethereum/). Makes it easier on me.. although ive had a very pleasant experience with kraken.  Nice to be verified at both anyway.

edit> on the drop i see it aswell on the zeroblock app for iphone.. they used to have a website but its no longer.. only for android iphone now.> good feed for news too

yesterday it was showing about 12 min avg block times.. today its showing 10 min.. i do believe its based of last 24 hours but im not 100% on that

Best Regards
d57heinz


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Mikestang on July 21, 2016, 05:24:36 PM
Hey philip I got a quick question: How would the halving interfere with any of the sites hash calculations? 
Do we know how these sites calculate (estimate would be a more accurate word) network hash rate?  If we know their method we might be able to figure out why.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 21, 2016, 06:00:29 PM
As a Mets fan I should say no ,but your Yankees are not winning much so here goes.

........

hehe.  finally got a series win on ya from the cubs:)  tough team on us last few series.  got a quick question.  s7 what is good freq to go with .. its nasty today and next couple days here.. heat index of 110f.  humidity if off the charts.  im already pushing 70 c only on the center board and outer boards are a couple c less.  running at 700mhz but from my tests at home it seems 600 would quit hashing after a while.  Also same with 625.  what is min i should go with and not have issues?  Thanks


on the diff.. looks like we seeing a drop.. hope thats not a precursor to the price;/. i was hoping to see a nice upswing but seems to be struggling.. eth is just blowing my mind how well its holding and rising.. coinbase just added it to the coinbase.com side.https://blog.coinbase.com/2016/07/21/coinbase-adds-support-for-ethereum/ (https://blog.coinbase.com/2016/07/21/coinbase-adds-support-for-ethereum/). Makes it easier on me.. although ive had a very pleasant experience with kraken.  Nice to be verified at both anyway.

edit> on the drop i see it aswell on the zeroblock app for iphone.. they used to have a website but its no longer.. only for android iphone now.> good feed for news too

yesterday it was showing about 12 min avg block times.. today its showing 10 min.. i do believe its based of last 24 hours but im not 100% on that

Best Regards
d57heinz
  IF YOU have batch 9 or newer 650.0, 656.25 , 662.50, 668.75, 675.0

As for diff calcs yeah I have found a few inconsistencies here and there before the ½ ing  but nothing major.

 

@ Mikestang  you have a good question as  when I do real world real time numbers they are always close but don't quite match the sites. 

And I know I am consistent and my real time method is accurate.


   pretty simple  144 blocks per day is  0%  so take the time expired from the diff to the current time.

  Example  say 3 days  so 3 x 144 = 432 

so 420 made
    432 = 0%

420/432-1 = 0.972222 -1  = -0.0277777   x 100 to convert to percent = -2.77777 % 
so if last diff was


 Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s



just x the numbers above to get an answer .

so current diff would drop to 207,562,153,854
current hash would drop to  1,485,787,431

but those real time numbers I just gave are true from the start to the 3rd day

I know bitcoinwisdom shows 3 hashrates  :

504 blocks gray line which was wrong
1008 blocks blue line which looked okay
2016 blocks red line which is accurate

since the blue and gray change a lot  they are at multiple points in time and the chart does not show those times.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: d57heinz on July 21, 2016, 06:28:13 PM
As a Mets fan I should say no ,but your Yankees are not winning much so here goes.

........

hehe.  finally got a series win on ya from the cubs:)  tough team on us last few series.  got a quick question.  s7 what is good freq to go with .. its nasty today and next couple days here.. heat index of 110f.  humidity if off the charts.  im already pushing 70 c only on the center board and outer boards are a couple c less.  running at 700mhz but from my tests at home it seems 600 would quit hashing after a while.  Also same with 625.  what is min i should go with and not have issues?  Thanks


on the diff.. looks like we seeing a drop.. hope thats not a precursor to the price;/. i was hoping to see a nice upswing but seems to be struggling.. eth is just blowing my mind how well its holding and rising.. coinbase just added it to the coinbase.com side.https://blog.coinbase.com/2016/07/21/coinbase-adds-support-for-ethereum/ (https://blog.coinbase.com/2016/07/21/coinbase-adds-support-for-ethereum/). Makes it easier on me.. although ive had a very pleasant experience with kraken.  Nice to be verified at both anyway.

edit> on the drop i see it aswell on the zeroblock app for iphone.. they used to have a website but its no longer.. only for android iphone now.> good feed for news too

yesterday it was showing about 12 min avg block times.. today its showing 10 min.. i do believe its based of last 24 hours but im not 100% on that

Best Regards
d57heinz
  IF YOU have batch 9 or newer 650.0, 656.25 , 662.50, 668.75, 675.0

As for diff calcs yeah I have found a few inconsistencies here and there before the ½ ing  but nothing major.

 

@ Mikestang  you have a good question as  when I do real world real time numbers they are always close but don't quite match the sites. 

And I know I am consistent and my real time method is accurate.


   pretty simple  144 blocks per day is  0%  so take the time expired from the diff to the current time.

  Example  say 3 days  so 3 x 144 = 432 

so 420 made
    432 = 0%

420/432-1 = 0.972222 -1  = -0.0277777   x 100 to convert to percent = -2.77777 % 
so if last diff was


 Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s



just x the numbers above to get an answer .

so current diff would drop to 207,562,153,854
current hash would drop to  1,485,787,431

but those real time numbers I just gave are true from the start to the 3rd day

I know bitcoinwisdom shows 3 hashrates  :

504 blocks gray line which was wrong
1008 blocks blue line which looked okay
2016 blocks red line which is accurate

since the blue and gray change a lot  they are at multiple points in time and the chart does not show those times.


thanks so much.. will give the 650 a shot till the weather breaks.  Finally got my s9's today.. 54.88$ for customs fees.  Which i expected>  just glad they made it.:) 

best Regards
d57heinz


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 23, 2016, 08:04:09 AM
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,154,251,109 (-2.03%)
Adjust time:After 1430 Blocks, About 10.1 days <<<<<< PICKS BEGIN AT 1116

Hashrate(?):   1,444,050,334 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   4:0 (2.1 minutes ago)

This has been a very slow adjustment period.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 23, 2016, 10:25:16 PM
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,154,251,109 (-2.03%)
Adjust time:After 1430 Blocks, About 10.1 days <<<<<< PICKS BEGIN AT 1116

Hashrate(?):   1,444,050,334 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   4:0 (2.1 minutes ago)

This has been a very slow adjustment period.

more of the same slow and down beat.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty




Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   206,830,903,631 (-3.12%)
Adjust time:   After 1354 Blocks, About 9.7 days


Hashrate(?):   1,408,927,308 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: alh on July 24, 2016, 12:04:34 AM
Looks like you are right. The electric bills have arrived, and numerous machines have been turned off. The nextdifficulty site is projecting a -4% adjustment, with a possibility of -8%. Nothing particularly exciting on the BTC price front at $655/BTC.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: mwizard on July 24, 2016, 02:28:14 AM
There may be a short term small drop over the next few weeks as any high electricity cost systems turn off.

But over the next 12 months I would expect to see a large increase in difficulty.  The hash rate should double or triple over the next year as the S9s and similar 14/16 nm systems come on line.

The S9 currently has a variable cost break even of 30 cents per kWh.  They would still be profitable to run for large miners even if the network hash rate was 4 times higher.  

Over the long term electricity cost and Bitcoin value are the two factors driving the hash rate.  They determine when miners are turned off.  Anyone paying under say 5 cents per kWh can expect their S9 to have a very long life.

So expect a small fall in hash rate now, and a climbing hash rate over the next few months even if the Bitcoin value stays unchanged.  



Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 24, 2016, 04:06:29 AM
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,154,251,109 (-2.03%)
Adjust time:After 1430 Blocks, About 10.1 days <<<<<< PICKS BEGIN AT 1116

Hashrate(?):   1,444,050,334 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   4:0 (2.1 minutes ago)

This has been a very slow adjustment period.

more of the same slow and down beat.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty




Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   206,830,903,631 (-3.12%)
Adjust time:   After 1354 Blocks, About 9.7 days


Hashrate(?):   1,408,927,308 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   205,231,862,280 (-3.87%)
Adjust time:   After 1327 Blocks, About 9.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,382,169,496 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   


Still slowing down.



Difficulty History

Date                  Difficulty                  Change   Hash Rate
Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s
Jul 04 2016   213,398,925,331   1.88%   1,527,569,009 GH/s
Jun 21 2016   209,453,158,595   6.83%   1,499,324,110 GH/s
Jun 08 2016   196,061,423,940   -1.63%   1,403,462,340 GH/s
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s

May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s


If you look at May 12 to Aug 15th  which is ninety two  days

Diff will be  very good.
We may hit the aug 2 with a diff at 200  and that would stay until about aug 15th.

a 92 day stretch of   1% diff jumps.   maybe 

Another reason for drop is USA is smoking hot temps in most of the usa.  so some down clocks are happening.

I would love to see btc drop  to 500-565 price.

This would really cause a strong drop in hash rate.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: TheYankeesWin! on July 24, 2016, 01:53:56 PM
Phil I see we keep going lower on bitcoinwisdom.
Are we going to go  under 200 Diff?


Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   204,394,973,862 (-4.26%)
Adjust time:   After 1275 Blocks, About 9.3 days


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1469367909


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 24, 2016, 07:30:54 PM
Some fast numbers:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   204,273,155,599 (-4.32%) <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< new diff to be 204...
Adjust time:   After 1239 Blocks, About 9.1 days  >> picks will start at  1116
Hashrate(?):   1,382,033,094 GH/s


http://nextdifficulty.com/

NEXT BITCOIN DIFFICULTY CHANGE

Current Hashrate: 1449804 TH/s* - Current price $ 654.89

Conservative: -4.8% -5.7% Continous: -8.4 %
Next Difficulty Value:201281440354 <<<<<<<<<<<<< new diff to be  201
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 1247


https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   422121
Total BTC   15.777M
 
Difficulty   213492501108
Estimated   206563080941 in 1239 blks <<<<<<<<<<<<<new diff to be 206
 
Network total   1375352.598 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.40 / 667 s   <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 5.40 should be 6.00 this is down 10%

all of the above are most likely reflecting the turning off of .5 watt efficient  or worse gear

  and of course summer heat as most hashrate is north of the Equator.

 I am hoping for this to continue for this jump and all of August.

I would love to hit Sept at  a diff of 185 to 190.

After that it will be  upwards.


422123 (Main Chain)   2016-07-24 19:31:55
421344 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:22:42

779 blocks in 5 days 20 hours 10 min

841 would be 0%

779/841-1 = -7.3721%  real time.

while -7.3721%  seems good  it is early.

but if we do that we will get under a diff of 200




Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: alh on July 24, 2016, 07:51:20 PM
We have to get a drop slightly more negative than -6% to get below 200 difficulty. Summer heat has definitely played into my plans for hashing until September, possibly longer.

Looks to me like Bitmain can ride this wave for a while longer and hold the price on S9. Just my guess.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: topiOleg on July 24, 2016, 09:17:16 PM
http://nextdifficulty.com/

NEXT BITCOIN DIFFICULTY CHANGE

Current Hashrate: 1449804 TH/s* - Current price $ 654.89

Conservative: -4.8% -5.7% Continous: -8.4 %
Next Difficulty Value:201281440354 <<<<<<<<<<<<< new diff to be  201
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 1247


422123 (Main Chain)   2016-07-24 19:31:55
421344 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:22:42

779 blocks in 5 days 20 hours 10 min

841 would be 0%

779/841-1 = -7.3721%  real time.

Im surprised none of the nextdifficulty.com numbers match the real time one. And its the simplest method how to predict difficulty so I dunno why they dont use it (actually you need some blocks found to even compute it, but after first day, the real time prediction is usefull).


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 25, 2016, 12:32:38 AM
We have to get a drop slightly more negative than -6% to get below 200 difficulty. Summer heat has definitely played into my plans for hashing until September, possibly longer.

Looks to me like Bitmain can ride this wave for a while longer and hold the price on S9. Just my guess.

Bitmaintech should raise the price a hair but offer a coupon for later use.

So next batch comes out say Aug 1 at 1999 plus shipping but a 300 usd coupon for sept 1 or later.

Logic would be   no one is selling anything and if Avalon does drop a miner in very late August or early sept  that 300 dollar coupon off another s-9 would be a good way to hurt avalon.

But frankly avalon always stays back a bit away from fighting or competing with bitmaintech.

Well right now we are really low

 http://nextdifficulty.com    Conservative: -5% -5.9% Continous: -8.6 % Next Difficulty Value:200824047042

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Estimated Next Difficulty:   203,100,322,696 (-4.87%)

https://bitcoincharts.com   206554900317   -3.2%

https://mining-profit.com   198548026029   -7%



Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: skuser on July 25, 2016, 06:31:14 AM

Im surprised none of the nextdifficulty.com numbers match the real time one. And its the simplest method how to predict difficulty so I dunno why they dont use it (actually you need some blocks found to even compute it, but after first day, the real time prediction is usefull).

Actually the leftmost conservative number is 'realtime' based on last 1500 blocks mined (regardless of to which diff period they belong to) so it tries to grab some recent trend. I saw no reason adding shorter term calulations because they just add confusion to people who don't understand variance and other statistical stuff behind difficulty.

After block 1500 it becomes the realtime diff estimate as you would call it because it starts to include all mined blocks in current difficulty ;)


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: in2tactics on July 25, 2016, 12:10:05 PM
Im surprised none of the nextdifficulty.com numbers match the real time one. And its the simplest method how to predict difficulty so I dunno why they dont use it (actually you need some blocks found to even compute it, but after first day, the real time prediction is usefull).

Actually the leftmost conservative number is 'realtime' based on last 1500 blocks mined (regardless of to which diff period they belong to) so it tries to grab some recent trend. I saw no reason adding shorter term calulations because they just add confusion to people who don't understand variance and other statistical stuff behind difficulty.

After block 1500 it becomes the realtime diff estimate as you would call it because it starts to include all mined blocks in current difficulty ;)

I have always appreciated the simple layout of your site. Are you planning to update the halving clock?


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 25, 2016, 01:03:06 PM

Im surprised none of the nextdifficulty.com numbers match the real time one. And its the simplest method how to predict difficulty so I dunno why they dont use it (actually you need some blocks found to even compute it, but after first day, the real time prediction is usefull).

Actually the leftmost conservative number is 'realtime' based on last 1500 blocks mined (regardless of to which diff period they belong to) so it tries to grab some recent trend. I saw no reason adding shorter term calulations because they just add confusion to people who don't understand variance and other statistical stuff behind difficulty.

After block 1500 it becomes the realtime diff estimate as you would call it because it starts to include all mined blocks in current difficulty ;)

So nextdifficulty.com is your site?

Seems nice I need to look at it more.

We are 1146  blocks to go we start picks at:
1116


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: VRobb on July 25, 2016, 05:23:19 PM
Looks like it's game on:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:    202,826,305,189 (-5.00%)
Adjust time:    After 1115 Blocks, About 8.2 days
Hashrate(?):    1,370,532,443 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
   
Updated:    10:20 (1.5 minutes ago)

Let's get a nice drop in diff this round!

VRobb = -6.5

Good luck all, and once again big ups to philip for giving us stat junkies a fun time!


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: gt_addict on July 25, 2016, 05:28:26 PM
gt_addict = -4.7


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: wpt1wpt1 on July 25, 2016, 05:28:51 PM
wpt1wpt1 = -5.8

please


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: GreatNorthData on July 25, 2016, 06:02:57 PM
GreatNorthData = -3%

Please and thank you!


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 25, 2016, 06:10:23 PM
My pick is -1.2 and as usual if I win I will roll it over.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Goms on July 25, 2016, 06:31:54 PM
My pick is -1.5 ;D


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Mikestang on July 25, 2016, 07:07:17 PM
Wow, I was out of town away from a computer all weekend and look at that drop off!  Definitely gear being shut off around the globe.  Whether it's temporary because of summer heat and electricity bills, or a sign of things to come I'm not complaining.  Let's go big!  Big negative.  ;D


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open ! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 25, 2016, 07:25:38 PM

picks are open

VRobb                = -6.5
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8

gt_addict            = -4.7
GreatNorthData   = -3.0
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: NeuroticFish on July 25, 2016, 07:50:38 PM
NeuroticFish = -4.1

Thank you


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open ! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 25, 2016, 07:56:54 PM
picks are open

VRobb                = -6.5
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8

gt_addict            = -4.7

NeuroticFish        = -4.1
GreatNorthData   = -3.0
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2



Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: cpfreeplz on July 25, 2016, 08:09:40 PM
Ah I was pretty close last time. The problem is now I'm thinking there will be a bigger dip. More people will realize that they no longer have ROI a they'll shut off their miners.

cpfreeplz = -8.3


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: lolxxxx on July 25, 2016, 08:13:47 PM
lolxxxx = -2.5


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: tntdgcr on July 25, 2016, 08:18:12 PM
tntdgcr = -9.4


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open ! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 25, 2016, 08:20:23 PM
picks are open


tntdgcr              = -9.4
cpfreeplz            = -8.3

VRobb                = -6.5
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8

gt_addict            = -4.7

NeuroticFish        = -4.1
GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: in2tactics on July 25, 2016, 08:25:46 PM
in2tactics = -7.5


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open ! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 25, 2016, 08:32:19 PM

picks are open


tntdgcr               = -9.4
cpfreeplz            = -8.3
in2tactics           = -7.5
VRobb                = -6.5
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8

gt_addict            = -4.7

NeuroticFish        = -4.1
GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Jebuswalks22 on July 25, 2016, 08:38:12 PM
Jebuswalks22 -3.6


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: vg54dett on July 25, 2016, 09:04:44 PM
vg54dett = -5.6


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: petahashminer on July 25, 2016, 09:30:22 PM
petahashminer = -3.9

good luck all


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: traxor on July 25, 2016, 09:50:10 PM
If it's alright -- I will play...

traxor = -9.6

Yeah -- I'm OPTIMISTIC!!!

 ;D ;D ;D


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: ATguy on July 25, 2016, 10:56:11 PM
-6.0 = ATguy
ATguy = -6.0

Not sure why everybody uses name = prediction format when it was required to use prediction = name format before, and its also in the rules. Anyway I used both formats. Up to date bitcoinwisdom prediction is

Bitcoin Difficulty: 213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty: 201,261,265,467 (-5.73%)
Adjust time: After 1093 Blocks, About 8.2 days


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: VRobb on July 25, 2016, 11:15:18 PM
Ach, that would be my fault.  Everyone seems to be following my pick which was done in reverse.  Just like the old HP calculators, eh?


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: vapourminer on July 26, 2016, 12:20:51 AM
-5.5 = vapourminer

seems fitting as my favorite number in the world is +5.5 i should change it as little as possible


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open ! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 26, 2016, 12:25:21 AM

picks are open

traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
cpfreeplz            = -8.3
in2tactics           = -7.5
VRobb                = -6.5
ATguy                 = -6.0
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
vg54dett            = -5.6
gt_addict            = -4.7

NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2

-6.0 = ATguy
ATguy = -6.0

Not sure why everybody uses name = prediction format when it was required to use prediction = name format before, and its also in the rules. Anyway I used both formats. Up to date bitcoinwisdom prediction is

Bitcoin Difficulty: 213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty: 201,261,265,467 (-5.73%)
Adjust time: After 1093 Blocks, About 8.2 days



Yes I was busy and four or five entires were in following VRobb  which is flip flopped

I thought I could try to go back to standard method but decided it is the first full new diff after the ½ ing and nubmers are really low.  lets go wit the flip flop.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: traxor on July 26, 2016, 12:27:11 AM
Thanks Phillip...

My first time playing -- but I Gotz to follow the rules...

Promise I'll do it better next time...

 ;D ;D ;D


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: edonkey on July 26, 2016, 12:31:45 AM
edonkey = -9.0

I'm out of town so I can't ask the cats. So I asked my wife.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: leowonderful on July 26, 2016, 12:40:07 AM
leowonderful=-7. 9
Actually made a diff thread about this, if we're lucky we may even get -10%, which'll be quite a sight... LOL!


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: blindminer on July 26, 2016, 01:01:40 AM
blindminer         = -7.1


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: ZedZedNova on July 26, 2016, 01:09:31 AM
Mr. Phil,

ZedZedNova = -9.9

Thank you sir.

Cheers,

- zed


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: generalt on July 26, 2016, 02:27:42 AM
-6.8 = generalt

Thanks again for running this Phil.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open ! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 26, 2016, 02:38:31 AM


picks are open

ZedZedNova      = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0
cpfreeplz            = -8.3
leowonderful      =-7.9
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
VRobb                = -6.5
ATguy                 = -6.0
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
vg54dett            = -5.6
gt_addict            = -4.7

NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2


@ general  .

 you are welcome but don't forget I use my signature money to fund this and I was not the first funder he gave over 2.5 coins

not sure what we gave away here but over 2000usd for sure. at no cost to anyone.

My signature money is two days past due.  So here is to hoping I get it. As I want to keep this up until the fall.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Erumara on July 26, 2016, 02:53:49 AM
-8.2 = Erumara


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: HerbPean on July 26, 2016, 03:42:22 AM
HerbDean      = -4.2

Thanks !


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: slastar on July 26, 2016, 06:12:49 AM
slastar = -8.0


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: veves1 on July 26, 2016, 06:33:15 AM
Veves1 = -5.5


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open ! prize = $50 usd
Post by: NeuroticFish on July 26, 2016, 09:05:23 AM
@ general  .

 you are welcome but don't forget I use my signature money to fund this and I was not the first funder he gave over 2.5 coins

not sure what we gave away here but over 2000usd for sure. at no cost to anyone.

My signature money is two days past due.  So here is to hoping I get it. As I want to keep this up until the fall.

From what I've read they are checking now the logs and the payments and anything missing will be fixed in a matter of days.
If you've missed it, please check this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=877765.msg15686854#msg15686854
And maybe a PM to Bitcoin_BOy$ will hurry up the things.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: adaseb on July 26, 2016, 09:41:02 AM
0.0 = adaseb


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: dukeneptun on July 26, 2016, 09:51:27 AM
dukeneptun = -6.3

After halving hashrate is declining, next difficulty will be negative.
Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   199,792,437,084 (-6.42%)
Adjust time:   After 1036 Blocks, About 7.8 days
Hashrate(?):   1,346,571,877 GH/s


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: vapourminer on July 26, 2016, 11:19:30 AM
Veves1 = -5.5

eh? didnt i pick this back a page?


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: vapourminer on July 26, 2016, 11:20:58 AM
-5.5 = vapourminer

seems fitting as my favorite number in the world is +5.5 i should change it as little as possible

i did but phil may of missed it?

phil, what say you?


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open ! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 26, 2016, 12:30:30 PM

picks are open

ZedZedNova      = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0
cpfreeplz            = -8.3
Erumara             = -8.2
slastar               = -8.0
leowonderful      =-7.9
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
VRobb                = -6.5
dukeneptun         = -6.3
ATguy                 = -6.0
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first
gt_addict            = -4.7
HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2
 adaseb              =   0.0

@ Veves1 I moved you to   -5.4  as vapourminer had -5.5 first

I had skipped it on the list.

As I am now near 6 weeks for my kitchen reno.
due to a missing cabinet.

My wife is freaking out a  bit  and real world but first real world issues are clouding my accuracy.

@ NeuroticFish thanks for link.

 


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open ! prize = $50 usd
Post by: vapourminer on July 26, 2016, 12:38:50 PM
As I am now near 6 weeks for my kitchen reno.
due to a missing cabinet.

My wife is freaking out a  bit  and real world but first real world issues are clouding my accuracy.

aint renovation grand? I was refinishing our kitchen cabinets a few years back and of course due to my own stupidity I ran a square foot short of some walnut vernier.

so trim, crown, some other stuff all on hold for a week to have some shipped.

cats = mildly unhappy. me = more unhappy. wife = most unhappy :(


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open ! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 26, 2016, 01:45:08 PM
As I am now near 6 weeks for my kitchen reno.
due to a missing cabinet.

My wife is freaking out a  bit  and real world but first real world issues are clouding my accuracy.

aint renovation grand? I was refinishing our kitchen cabinets a few years back and of course due to my own stupidity I ran a square foot short of some walnut vernier.

so trim, crown, some other stuff all on hold for a week to have some shipped.

cats = mildly unhappy. me = more unhappy. wife = most unhappy :(

Yeah  looks really good but  the last little bit is killing me.


look at windows on left not done yet

Should be done today
https://i.imgur.com/whNFS4A.jpg
panel under sink was damaged and  cabinet just right of window missing
the cabinet should come today
https://i.imgur.com/vrwKsqh.jpg
crown moulding is waiting for the missing cabinet.
 look at ceiling two lights were moved  worked on today
 trim for dishwasher was missing waiting for it
comes today

the faucet handle hits the granite backsplash  so it  needs to be twisted  say from  9 oclock -- 6 oclock   to 9:20 - 3:20
some plugs and plate to be installed

Plumber/electrical guy comes this week

lastly waiting for fridge to be moved from garage
https://i.imgur.com/nKxLPYf.jpg


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: merelcoin on July 26, 2016, 01:48:12 PM
-4.8 = merelcoin

btw: congrats on the kitchen renovation, it looks great already :)
I've been renovating for close to 10 years now, it's allways the last details that take the most time and effort


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 26, 2016, 01:52:24 PM
-4.8 = merelcoin

btw: congrats on the kitchen renovation, it looks great already :)
I've been renovating for close to 10 years now, it's allways the last details that take the most time and effort

thanks  this will be the first really nice kitchen I ever had to call my own. 


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: TheYankeesWin! on July 26, 2016, 01:55:04 PM
Does that range have 5 burners with a grill  as the fifth burner.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 26, 2016, 01:57:23 PM
Does that range have 5 burners with a grill  as the fifth burner.

It does but the center burner is shaped like a racetrack oval.  you can keep the standard top or put on a grill for burgers that flips to a flat side for pancakes




picks are open

ZedZedNova      = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0
cpfreeplz            = -8.3
Erumara             = -8.2
slastar               = -8.0
leowonderful      =-7.9
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
VRobb                = -6.5
dukeneptun         = -6.3
ATguy                 = -6.0
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5

Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first
merelcoin           = -4.8
 
gt_addict            = -4.7
HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2
 adaseb              =   0.0

@ Veves1 I moved you to   -5.4  as vapourminer had -5.5 first

I had skipped it on the list.

As I am now near 6 weeks for my kitchen reno.
due to a missing cabinet.

My wife is freaking out a  bit  and real world but first real world issues are clouding my accuracy.

@ NeuroticFish thanks for link.

 


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: lindin99 on July 26, 2016, 02:19:20 PM
Lindin99 = -11.1


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: ingiltere on July 26, 2016, 02:38:54 PM
ingiltere = -6.6

Price was stable around 666$ satan so why not it make -6.66 mining difficulty? My theory for next diff change. :)


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 26, 2016, 03:19:57 PM

picks are open
Lindin99           = -11.1
ZedZedNova      = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0
cpfreeplz            = -8.3
Erumara             = -8.2
slastar               = -8.0
leowonderful      =-7.9
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
ingiltere              = -6.6

VRobb                = -6.5
dukeneptun         = -6.3
ATguy                 = -6.0
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5

Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first
merelcoin           = -4.8
 
gt_addict            = -4.7
HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2
 adaseb              =   0.0

@ Veves1 I moved you to   -5.4  as vapourminer had -5.5 first

I had skipped it on the list.

As I am now near 6 weeks for my kitchen reno.
due to a missing cabinet.

My wife is freaking out a  bit  and real world but first real world issues are clouding my accuracy.


 


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: albertamining on July 26, 2016, 04:41:36 PM

albertamining = -4.9




Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: networkgeek24 on July 26, 2016, 06:22:45 PM
-8.5 for me


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 26, 2016, 07:09:29 PM
Picks are open

Lindin99           = -11.1
ZedZedNova      = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0

-8.5 for me   or is it  networkgeek24


cpfreeplz            = -8.3
Erumara             = -8.2
slastar               = -8.0
leowonderful      =-7.9
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
ingiltere              = -6.6
VRobb                = -6.5
dukeneptun         = -6.3
ATguy                 = -6.0
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first
albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8
 
gt_addict            = -4.7
HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2
 adaseb              =   0.0

@ Veves1 I moved you to   -5.4  as vapourminer had -5.5 first

I had skipped it on the list.

 


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: HerbPean on July 26, 2016, 07:17:50 PM
HerbDPean      = -4.2

Thanks !

thanks Phil for correcting my typo ! You're the best ;-)

Great Kitchen ! Well done !!  :D


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Mikestang on July 26, 2016, 07:33:34 PM
-8.5 for me
Please revise your guess into the proper format for Phil's ease of use.


Wow look at that diff drop!  Go go go go down down down, just don't let the price follow please.

Mikestang = -7.7


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 26, 2016, 10:02:23 PM
]
Picks are open

Lindin99           = -11.1
ZedZedNova      = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0

-8.5 for me   or is it  networkgeek24


cpfreeplz            = -8.3
Erumara             = -8.2
slastar               = -8.0
leowonderful      =-7.9

Mikestang          = -7.7
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
ingiltere              = -6.6
VRobb                = -6.5
dukeneptun         = -6.3
ATguy                 = -6.0
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first
albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8
  
gt_addict            = -4.7
HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2
 adaseb              =   0.0

@ Veves1 I moved you to   -5.4  as vapourminer had -5.5 first

I had skipped it on the list.


@ HerbPean

work done on kitchen has been pretty good quality,but the waiting for the missing cabinet really slowed things up.

difficulty has really dropped

I wonder if a farm was taken out in China due to these floods?


http://nanonews.org/almost-300-dead-or-missing-from-china-flooding/


https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-suspends-4-local-officials-deadly-floods-090520566.html?nhp=1

http://www.seattlepi.com/news/world/article/At-least-75-dead-missing-in-recent-China-flooding-8399947.php

http://floodlist.com/asia/china-floods-northern-provinces-july-2016

If flooding hammered BTC farms and or basic building spots  we could have a long long long long long delay on s-9's

When western digital hdds flooded it set back the entire world in hdd sales.

If bitmaintech lost a building with s-9s'  and a farm filled with s-9s'  it would set the hash rate back a lot and cause a true shortage of s-9s'

This is a great opportunity for bitmaintech to announce a delay in the s-9 being built.

Then hold the gear another week and sell at a higher price. leak a few rumors about a limit to builds.  Only some stock on hand yada yada yada.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: -droid- on July 27, 2016, 12:04:44 AM
-droid-    -7.6


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Cuidler on July 27, 2016, 12:10:48 AM
Cuidler = -8.1

The floods affecting big mining farms is nice speculation. I think we would see in Bitcoin based news some story pretty soon how some mining farm was flooded and mining equipment worth million of yuans lost. Pretty small chance though, the China is big country and floods tend to be only localized events. Many mining farms uses cheap hydro power electricity in China though, so they need to be located near rivers - so there is some possibility.

Last day hashpower pretty stable around difficulty 190,000,000,000, lets see if it stays there for few more days, then we could see some two digit difficulty change - which I dont expect.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 27, 2016, 02:04:29 AM

Picks are open

Lindin99           = -11.1
ZedZedNova      = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0

-8.5 for me   or is it  networkgeek24


cpfreeplz            = -8.3
Erumara             = -8.2
Cuidler              = -8.1
slastar               = -8.0
leowonderful      =-7.9

Mikestang          = -7.7
-droid-              =  -7.6
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
ingiltere              = -6.6
VRobb                = -6.5
dukeneptun         = -6.3
ATguy                 = -6.0
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first
albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8
  
gt_addict            = -4.7
HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2
 adaseb              =   0.0

@ Veves1 I moved you to   -5.4  as vapourminer had -5.5 first

I had skipped it on the list.


@ HerbPean

work done on kitchen has been pretty good quality,but the waiting for the missing cabinet really slowed things up.

difficulty has really dropped

I wonder if a farm was taken out in China due to these floods?


http://nanonews.org/almost-300-dead-or-missing-from-china-flooding/


https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-suspends-4-local-officials-deadly-floods-090520566.html?nhp=1

http://www.seattlepi.com/news/world/article/At-least-75-dead-missing-in-recent-China-flooding-8399947.php

http://floodlist.com/asia/china-floods-northern-provinces-july-2016

If flooding hammered BTC farms and or basic building spots  we could have a long long long long long delay on s-9's

When western digital hdds flooded it set back the entire world in hdd sales.

If bitmaintech lost a building with s-9s'  and a farm filled with s-9s'  it would set the hash rate back a lot and cause a true shortage of s-9s'

This is a great opportunity for bitmaintech to announce a delay in the s-9 being built.

Then hold the gear another week and sell at a higher price. leak a few rumors about a limit to builds.  Only some stock on hand yada yada yada.



Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: notlist3d on July 27, 2016, 03:49:07 AM
Notlist3d        = -7.8

Dang... interesting reading this after getting home from a conference.  I had been keeping up with price but had not been watching difficulty.   Happy to see a negative most likely.   I wonder if some gear is finally coming offline.    I keep thinking it will happen... but seems slow.

Either way it's a win if we can keep BTC price stable and get a negative.  I would consider that a good difficulty period for sure.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: alh on July 27, 2016, 05:18:30 AM
Not going to wait until the last minute, though I have no idea where this is going to go.

alh     =  -8.9


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: DanielRo on July 27, 2016, 07:45:21 AM
DanielRo = -5.9


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: testerman on July 27, 2016, 09:53:56 AM
testerman = -5.7


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Psi on July 27, 2016, 10:28:51 AM
congrats to VRobb on win last round !

Psi = -6.2


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: pusttiu on July 27, 2016, 10:35:07 AM
+1.0 = pusttiu


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 27, 2016, 11:22:03 AM

Picks are open

Lindin99           = -11.1
ZedZedNova      = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0
alh                     =  -8.9
-8.5 for me   or is it  networkgeek24


cpfreeplz            = -8.3
Erumara             = -8.2
Cuidler              = -8.1
slastar               = -8.0
leowonderful      =-7.9
Notlist3d           = -7.8
Mikestang          = -7.7
-droid-              =  -7.6
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
ingiltere              = -6.6
VRobb                = -6.5
dukeneptun         = -6.3
Psi                      = -6.2
ATguy                 = -6.0
DanielRo            = -5.9
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
testerman          = -5.7
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first
albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8
  
gt_addict            = -4.7
HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2
 adaseb              =   0.0


+1.0                   = pusttiu


@ Veves1 I moved you to   -5.4  as vapourminer had -5.5 first

I had skipped it on the list.


@ HerbPean

work done on kitchen has been pretty good quality,but the waiting for the missing cabinet really slowed things up.

difficulty has really dropped

I wonder if a farm was taken out in China due to these floods?


http://nanonews.org/almost-300-dead-or-missing-from-china-flooding/


https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-suspends-4-local-officials-deadly-floods-090520566.html?nhp=1

http://www.seattlepi.com/news/world/article/At-least-75-dead-missing-in-recent-China-flooding-8399947.php

http://floodlist.com/asia/china-floods-northern-provinces-july-2016

If flooding hammered BTC farms and or basic building spots  we could have a long long long long long delay on s-9's

When western digital hdds flooded it set back the entire world in hdd sales.

If bitmaintech lost a building with s-9s'  and a farm filled with s-9s'  it would set the hash rate back a lot and cause a true shortage of s-9s'

This is a great opportunity for bitmaintech to announce a delay in the s-9 being built.

Then hold the gear another week and sell at a higher price. leak a few rumors about a limit to builds.  Only some stock on hand yada yada yada.



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   198,198,106,270 (-7.16%)
Adjust time:   After 899 Blocks, About 6.8 days


Hashrate(?):   1,368,600,475 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.9 minutes
3 blocks: 32.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   7:15 (5.6 minutes ago)


http://nextdifficulty.com/

NEXT BITCOIN DIFFICULTY CHANGE
Current Hashrate: 1400746 TH/s* - Current price $ 644.801
Conservative: -8.4% -9.6% Continous: -13 %
Next Difficulty Value:193079897130

Change will happen on appr. August 3, 2016, 6:26 am
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 901
Bitcoin block reward halving date: July 10, 2016, 8:38 am or -17 days
Last updated July 27, 2016, 11:06 am GMT, last block: 422459


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: HerbPean on July 27, 2016, 02:55:58 PM
My gut feeling is telling me we are going to see a massive spike back soon ... I hope i'm wrong  :D


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are yet to start! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Xircom on July 27, 2016, 03:57:06 PM
Besides, if you want to replace the 20PH with S9 hardware, you'll need to purchase at least 1700 of them. Even with a discount, that will be significant money to send off to Bitmain. I wonder what kind of terms you get if you offer to buy 1700 S9 units from Bitmain?

and lets say   this pretend farm does 5 s-9's a week  in a week  he gains 60th but he can take 50 s-5's off line.

losing 57.5 th

 net hash rate gain = 2.5 th

power savings 7000 watts  for the near gear adds on but 30,000 watts drops

So that is 23 kwatts saved which is 552 kwatts per day and 3864 kwatts saved in a week.  that is 220 usd in power savings with a gain in 2.5th hash rate.

So this 20ph s-5 farm should simply add 5 s-9s a week for now since price is high.
If and when price drops he can speed up his conversion.



now that is the s-5 guy with cheap power.

if you are 20ph in s-7's  with 6 cent power  just mine and hold your coins



You got it spot on. That's why I actual invested in further S7`s after halving. With a power price below 0.06$ the S7 is still a solid investment if the BTC price keeps steady or rise. I think the last will happen when supply dries out. The latest drop in Hashrate I expect to be power hungry units like S4`s, Tubes and other chinese miners. S5`s will stil be mining if the power prices is below 0.02$ and thats possible not only in china.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: VRobb on July 27, 2016, 10:04:26 PM
congrats to VRobb on win last round !

Psi = -6.2
Thanks, just blind-ass luck!  Loving the drop in diff that's sure to come, we'll see just how far it goes...!  ;D


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: topiOleg on July 27, 2016, 11:18:36 PM
topiOleg  = -8.8

If the bitcoinwisdom gray graph line for hash rate of the last 504 blocks is fixed (it was wrong one week ago), then the hash rate drop stopped already.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty: 213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty: 197,050,611,206 (-7.70%)
Adjust time: After 834 Blocks, About 6.4 days


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 28, 2016, 01:10:49 AM

Picks are open

Lindin99           = -11.1
ZedZedNova      = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0
alh                     =  -8.9
topiOleg             = -8.8
-8.5 for me   or is it  networkgeek24


cpfreeplz            = -8.3
Erumara             = -8.2
Cuidler              = -8.1
slastar               = -8.0
leowonderful      =-7.9
Notlist3d           = -7.8
Mikestang          = -7.7
-droid-              =  -7.6
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
ingiltere              = -6.6
VRobb                = -6.5
dukeneptun         = -6.3
Psi                      = -6.2
ATguy                 = -6.0
DanielRo            = -5.9
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
testerman          = -5.7
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first
albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8
  
gt_addict            = -4.7
HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2
 adaseb              =   0.0


+1.0                   = pusttiu


@ Veves1 I moved you to   -5.4  as vapourminer had -5.5 first

I had skipped it on the list.



Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 28, 2016, 01:21:07 AM
]

Picks are open

Lindin99           = -11.1
ZedZedNova      = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0
alh                     =  -8.9
topiOleg             = -8.8
-8.5 for me   or is it  networkgeek24


cpfreeplz            = -8.3
Erumara             = -8.2
Cuidler              = -8.1
slastar               = -8.0
leowonderful      =-7.9
Notlist3d           = -7.8
Mikestang          = -7.7
-droid-              =  -7.6
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
ingiltere              = -6.6
VRobb                = -6.5
dukeneptun         = -6.3
Psi                      = -6.2
ATguy                 = -6.0
DanielRo            = -5.9
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
testerman          = -5.7
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first
albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8
  
gt_addict            = -4.7
HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2
 adaseb              =   0.0


+1.0                   = pusttiu


@ Veves1 I moved you to   -5.4  as vapourminer had -5.5 first

I had skipped it on the list.

http://nextdifficulty.com/



NEXT BITCOIN DIFFICULTY CHANGE
Current Hashrate: 1384166 TH/s* - Current price $ 647
Conservative: -9.4% -10.7% Continous: -14.5 %
Next Difficulty Value:190711014395
Change will happen on appr. August 3, 2016, 7:40 am
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 822

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   196,757,959,964 (-7.84%)

Adjust time:   After 821 Blocks, About 6.3 days  picks end at 716

Hashrate(?):   1,384,115,117 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
   
1 block: 11.1 minutes   this would be -11%

3 blocks: 33.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   21:10 (3.0 minutes ago


we made  1195 blocks so far


   
422539 (Main Chain)   2016-07-28 01:01:52

421344 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:22:42


1195

9 days  x 144 = 1296
1 hour  x 10   =  10 wrong 
20 min          =     2

1308 = normal 0%

1195/1308- 1 =  -0.8639%   real time wrong


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: in2tactics on July 28, 2016, 01:52:57 AM
Well, projections continue to sink into the negative territory. I am beginning to think that my -7.5% was too modest. :(


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: javierfjavier on July 28, 2016, 02:06:47 AM
javierfjavier = -10.5

It will be in the 10's range for sure


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 28, 2016, 02:11:33 AM


Picks are open

Lindin99           = -11.1
javierfjavier      = -10.5
ZedZedNova      = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0
alh                     =  -8.9
topiOleg             = -8.8
-8.5 for me   or is it  networkgeek24


cpfreeplz            = -8.3
Erumara             = -8.2
Cuidler              = -8.1
slastar               = -8.0
leowonderful      =-7.9
Notlist3d           = -7.8
Mikestang          = -7.7
-droid-              =  -7.6
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
ingiltere              = -6.6
VRobb                = -6.5
dukeneptun         = -6.3
Psi                      = -6.2
ATguy                 = -6.0
DanielRo            = -5.9
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
testerman          = -5.7
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first
albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8
  
gt_addict            = -4.7
HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2
 adaseb              =   0.0


+1.0                   = pusttiu


@ Veves1 I moved you to   -5.4  as vapourminer had -5.5 first

I had skipped it on the list.



Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: notlist3d on July 28, 2016, 02:34:26 AM
Bitwisdom looks even nicer today:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:    196,730,893,058 (-7.85%)
Adjust time:    After 814 Blocks, About 6.3 days
Hashrate(?):    1,390,754,658 GH/s

Wish we had the reason behind drop, but hard to argue with it very nice change for us miner's.   Also on value around 5 dollar or so up on coinbase (it went down for a little bit to high 640's, but went back up pretty soon after).   Bot little gain on value and decent looking drop looks great to me. 

I am hoping I am wrong on guess and it keeps going down on difficulty.  Only thing that scares me is if it is someones upgrading.   In that case could be a temporary drop and end up with a bigger hashrate in the end.  Guess that would be the pessimistic possible view.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 28, 2016, 02:38:46 AM
Bitwisdom looks even nicer today:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:    196,730,893,058 (-7.85%)
Adjust time:    After 814 Blocks, About 6.3 days
Hashrate(?):    1,390,754,658 GH/s

Wish we had the reason behind drop, but hard to argue with it very nice change for us miner's.   Also on value around 5 dollar or so up on coinbase (it went down for a little bit to high 640's, but went back up pretty soon after).   Bot little gain on value and decent looking drop looks great to me.  

I am hoping I am wrong on guess and it keeps going down on difficulty.  Only thing that scares me is if it is someones upgrading.  In that case could be a temporary drop and end up with a bigger hash rate in the end.  Guess that would be the pessimistic possible view.

any crazy big s-9 upgrade is not sensible.

but another miner like bitfury,avalon, insosilicon(sp) could do that.

As long as the s-9 is the only working .1 watt machine bitmaintech can go slow and force all of us to go slow.

they have no need to rush as we have  past the ½ing and they are the only game in town


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: tertius993 on July 28, 2016, 04:30:17 AM
tertius993 = -12.1


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: petahashminer on July 28, 2016, 08:17:06 AM

@philipma1957
-------------
1195

9 days  x 144 = 1296
1 hour  x 10   =  10
20 min          =     2

1308 = normal 0%

1195/1308- 1 =  -0.8639%   real time  ===> this calculation is also wrong 1195/1308 = 91.36%

--------------
and this has to be
1 hour  x 6   =  6

so 1191/1308 - 1 = - 8.94 %



-------------------------------------
according to my updated calculations,

18.07.2016 23:22   421344
28.07.2016 08:14   422571

1227 blocks states that   -9.06% so far, since the last diff change.


by the way, diff is decreasing continuously.






Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 28, 2016, 11:53:51 AM

@philipma1957
-------------
1195

9 days  x 144 = 1296
1 hour  x 10   =  10
20 min          =     2

1308 = normal 0%

1195/1308- 1 =  -0.8639%   real time  ===> this calculation is also wrong 1195/1308 = 91.36%

--------------
and this has to be
1 hour  x 6   =  6

so 1191/1308 - 1 = - 8.94 %



-------------------------------------
according to my updated calculations,

18.07.2016 23:22   421344
28.07.2016 08:14   422571

1227 blocks states that   -9.06% so far, since the last diff change.


by the way, diff is decreasing continuously.





bad math day happens at times ;D

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   196,088,783,878 (-8.15%)
Adjust time:   After 769 Blocks, About 6.0 days >>>>>>>>>>> we stop picking at 716
Hashrate(?):   1,374,024,583 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.2 minutes
3 blocks: 33.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   7:50 (4.2 minutes ago)


http://nextdifficulty.com/


NEXT BITCOIN DIFFICULTY CHANGE
Current Hashrate: 1374988 TH/s* - Current price $ 647.116
Conservative: -10.4% -11.6% Continous: -15.3 %
Next Difficulty Value:188626214642
Change will happen on appr. August 3, 2016, 10:54 am
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 774
Bitcoin block reward halving date: July 10, 2016, 11:53 am or -18 days
Last updated July 28, 2016, 11:46 am GMT, last block: 422586


















Picks are open
tertius993          = -12.1
Lindin99             = -11.1
javierfjavier        = -10.5
ZedZedNova       = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0
alh                     =  -8.9
topiOleg             = -8.8
-8.5 for me   or is it  networkgeek24


cpfreeplz            = -8.3
Erumara             = -8.2
Cuidler              = -8.1
slastar               = -8.0
leowonderful      =-7.9
Notlist3d           = -7.8
Mikestang          = -7.7
-droid-              =  -7.6
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
ingiltere              = -6.6
VRobb                = -6.5
dukeneptun         = -6.3
Psi                      = -6.2
ATguy                 = -6.0
DanielRo            = -5.9
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
testerman          = -5.7
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first
albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8
  
gt_addict            = -4.7
HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2
 adaseb              =   0.0


+1.0                   = pusttiu


@ Veves1 I moved you to   -5.4  as vapourminer had -5.5 first

I had skipped it on the list.




Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: d57heinz on July 28, 2016, 12:41:27 PM
d57heinz = -11.3

Going out on a limb on this one. :)

Nice surprise on the drop.   Thanks again Phil for keeping this alive.  One of the few threads left I enjoy reading

Best Regards
d57heinz


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 28, 2016, 02:08:39 PM

Picks are open

tertius993          = -12.1
d57heinz           = -11.3
Lindin99             = -11.1
javierfjavier        = -10.5
ZedZedNova       = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0
alh                     =  -8.9
topiOleg             = -8.8

-8.5 for me   or is it  networkgeek24


cpfreeplz            = -8.3
Erumara             = -8.2
Cuidler              = -8.1
slastar               = -8.0
leowonderful      =-7.9
Notlist3d           = -7.8
Mikestang          = -7.7
-droid-              =  -7.6
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
ingiltere              = -6.6
VRobb                = -6.5
dukeneptun         = -6.3
Psi                      = -6.2
ATguy                 = -6.0
DanielRo            = -5.9
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
testerman          = -5.7
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first
albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8
  
gt_addict            = -4.7
HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2
 adaseb              =   0.0


+1.0                   = pusttiu


@ Veves1 I moved you to   -5.4  as vapourminer had -5.5 first

I had skipped it on the list.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   197,075,864,371 (-7.69%)
Adjust time:   After 752 Blocks, About 5.8 days >>>>716 is only 36 blocks left


Hashrate(?):   1,379,561,863 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.1 minutes
3 blocks: 33.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   10:5 (2.8 minutes ago)




Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: d57heinz on July 28, 2016, 05:29:00 PM
@Phil i know this is way off topic.. Do you know who runs bitmainwarranty.  I placed an order on the 19th and have yet to hear a peep from them.  I ordered from bitmain the parts i needed and they have arrived already lol.  I did have one s7 come with a defective fan. If the control board doesnt show the fan at proper speed it wont let it hash.> Took a good long while to figure that one out let me tell yea :)  I had to pull a fan from s4 to replace but sadly its only 4200 rpm max and i need 6000.  I had to downclock that one back to 600 from 700.  Anyway thanks for the help in advance if you can provide any.  

removed the link.. didnt realize it had so much info at the bottom.. as if i didnt get enough .jar and bitcoin wallet download emails enough as it is lol

Looking for some 6k rpm fans if anyone know of good place to get some? Thanks

Code:
Thank you. Your order has been received.

ORDER NUMBER:
781
DATE:
July 19, 2016
TOTAL:
$27.55
PAYMENT METHOD:
Amazon
Order Details
Product Total
S7 Control PCB × 1 $23.99
Subtotal: $23.99
Shipping: $2.00 via Product Shipping
Did not Qualified for Cash/BTC Discount: $1.56
Payment Method: Amazon
Total: $27.55
Available Warranties for this Order
Your warranties will be available once your order is complete.

Product Warranty Status
S7 Control PCB
Included Warranty - 30 Days
30 days from the shipping date. Burnt components after 3 days of delivery is not covered by this warranty
Pending order

Best Regards
d57heinz


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: petahashminer on July 28, 2016, 07:50:36 PM
18.07.2016 23:22   421344
28.07.2016 19:42   422646


1302 blocks expected diff rise   -8.18%   expected diff 196036386838

so far since last diff change.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 28, 2016, 08:59:15 PM

Picks are open

tertius993          = -12.1
d57heinz           = -11.3
Lindin99             = -11.1
javierfjavier        = -10.5
ZedZedNova       = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0
alh                     =  -8.9
topiOleg             = -8.8

-8.5 for me   or is it  networkgeek24


cpfreeplz            = -8.3
Erumara             = -8.2
Cuidler              = -8.1
slastar               = -8.0
leowonderful      =-7.9
Notlist3d           = -7.8
Mikestang          = -7.7
-droid-              =  -7.6
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
ingiltere              = -6.6
VRobb                = -6.5
dukeneptun         = -6.3
Psi                      = -6.2
ATguy                 = -6.0
DanielRo            = -5.9
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
testerman          = -5.7
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first
albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8
  
gt_addict            = -4.7
HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2
 adaseb              =   0.0


+1.0                   = pusttiu


@ Veves1 I moved you to   -5.4  as vapourminer had -5.5 first

I had skipped it on the list.


Picks are done.  good luck.
@d57heinz

 yoshi  I have a pm let me find it.

it is all emails

From:

"Yoshi Goto" <yoshi@bitmainwarranty.com>

he was online  today this is his forum name
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=383527


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Kexkey on July 29, 2016, 03:29:16 AM
Kexkey = -8.4

Thanks Phil!


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: HerbPean on July 29, 2016, 04:22:37 AM
Kexkey = -8.4

Thanks Phil!


You missed the window.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are open! prize = $50 usd
Post by: notlist3d on July 29, 2016, 04:28:33 AM
Bitwisdom looks even nicer today:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:    196,730,893,058 (-7.85%)
Adjust time:    After 814 Blocks, About 6.3 days
Hashrate(?):    1,390,754,658 GH/s

Wish we had the reason behind drop, but hard to argue with it very nice change for us miner's.   Also on value around 5 dollar or so up on coinbase (it went down for a little bit to high 640's, but went back up pretty soon after).   Bot little gain on value and decent looking drop looks great to me.  

I am hoping I am wrong on guess and it keeps going down on difficulty.  Only thing that scares me is if it is someones upgrading.  In that case could be a temporary drop and end up with a bigger hash rate in the end.  Guess that would be the pessimistic possible view.

any crazy big s-9 upgrade is not sensible.

but another miner like bitfury,avalon, insosilicon(sp) could do that.

As long as the s-9 is the only working .1 watt machine bitmaintech can go slow and force all of us to go slow.

they have no need to rush as we have  past the ½ing and they are the only game in town

The thing I keep thinking of is most of the "big mines" for lack of better term already have put in the money for info-structure. So I don't see a lot of them going away unless they go the way of say SP and go bankrupt.   I think a lot of these mines will upgrade just depends when.  And honestly some of these mines might be in places where electricity is so cheap a S7 upgrade might make sense in some cases.

But I could be all off base on it with upgrades.  I just am surprised on drop I thought we would have seen it sooner.  But it is a little bit smaller drop on bitwisdom (although not by much).

Bitcoin Difficulty:    213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:    198,646,231,015 (-6.95%)
Adjust time:    After 667 Blocks, About 5.1 days
Hashrate(?):    1,402,236,920 GH/s



Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: petahashminer on July 29, 2016, 06:59:01 AM
18.07.2016 23:22   421344
29.07.2016 06:57   422705


1361   blocks
Estimated diff change -8.38%   
Estimated diff  195604406292

seems nothing has changed since yesterday.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 29, 2016, 03:55:58 PM
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   197,393,792,649 (-7.54%)
Adjust time:   After 599 Blocks, About 4.6 days
Hashrate(?):   1,403,757,498 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.1 minutes
3 blocks: 33.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   11:40 (2.6 minutes ago)


Numbers are decent.

As for what happens next  1ph farms or bigger with 5 cent power or less can stay with s-7's they should wait as the s-9 are costly.

but slow replacement may be what all the farms will do.

since the s-7 at 8 cent power or less make money

a 200 s-7 farm is 940th
it makes 190 usd a day at 8 cent
it makes 250 usd  a day at  7 cent
it makes  322 usd a day at 6 cent
it makes 375 usd a day at 5 cent.

if diff drops to 199
it makes 241 a day at 8 cent
it makes 307 a day at 7 cent
it makes 373 a day at 6 cent
it makes 409 a day at 5 cent


so the s-7 farms will be slow to switch to s-9

s-5 will look to switch to s-7 over s-9

if they have 3 cent 4 cent or 5 cent power


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Mikestang on July 29, 2016, 06:33:59 PM
Looks like a little upturn in network hash power, possible some of this drop really was old gear coming off line and we'll see a bit of the new gear start to come back in and take its place.  Although it would be nice to see a few periods of negative adjustment while maintaining a strong btc price.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: topiOleg on July 29, 2016, 10:47:37 PM
The upturn is very small, maybe around 194 diff in the last two days. So the difficulty might really end around 199 this period, with the possibility to go bit down next difficulty period as well (maybe as low as 190-195 if not many new units plugs in).


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 30, 2016, 08:54:24 AM
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   199,085,409,986 (-6.75%)
Adjust time:   After 504 Blocks, About 3.8 days

Hashrate(?):   1,417,088,328 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.0 minutes >>>>>>>>>> this is close to -10%
3 blocks: 32.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   


http://nextdifficulty.com/

NEXT BITCOIN DIFFICULTY CHANGE
Current Hashrate: 1398453 TH/s* - Current price $ 648.001
Conservative: -7.6% -8.3% Continous: -10.4 %
Next Difficulty Value:195778120560
Change will happen on appr. August 3, 2016, 4:07 am
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 506
Bitcoin block reward halving date: July 10, 2016, 12:06 pm or -20 days
Last updated July 30, 2016, 8:46 am GMT, last block: 422854


http://bitcoincharts.com/
Blocks   422856
Total BTC   15.786M
 
Difficulty   213492501108
Estimated   203709668234 in 504 blks
 
Network total   1467345.115 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.76 / 625 s  >>>> this is about 7.84%


We are hanging in there maybe we end up -7.5%


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: TheYankeesWin! on July 31, 2016, 03:33:47 AM
We look good!


http://nextdifficulty.com/

Conservative = -8.1%
Current?       = -8.6%
Continous     = -10.1%


All of those are very good numbers.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: cpfreeplz on July 31, 2016, 07:23:09 PM
We look good!


http://nextdifficulty.com/

Conservative = -8.1%
Current?       = -8.6%
Continous     = -10.1%


All of those are very good numbers.

-8.3 would be the best number ;) I have a feeling if I don't win I'll have been very close!

I'd have to assume it's going to be somewhere around -8% or -9% with the current trends.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on July 31, 2016, 07:32:46 PM
302 to go means we made 1714 blocks


https://blockchain.info/blocks


423058 (Main Chain)   2016-07-31 19:27:36

421334 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:07:12


12 days     12 x 144  = 1728
20 hours    20 x    6  =   120
20 mins       2 x    1  =       2

1850 = 0%

1714/1850 -1 = -7.35135%  is real time number


things have picked up a bit so -6 to -8  look to be where we will end up


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: TheYankeesWin! on August 01, 2016, 03:31:22 AM
BTC price keeps dropping it is down to 620 on coinbase!



Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 01, 2016, 03:34:22 AM
We could use a drop to 550 even to 480 usd.  That could really drop difficulty a lot.

I purchased 300 worth of coin at 619 a few minutes ago.

at a 480 price  8 cent power is a loser for the s-7


that will knock out some farms

at the current 619 price  an s-7 at 10 cent power earns 10 cents a day



I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: notlist3d on August 01, 2016, 07:51:41 AM
We could use a drop to 550 even to 480 usd.  That could really drop difficulty a lot.

I purchased 300 worth of coin at 619 a few minutes ago.

at a 480 price  8 cent power is a loser for the s-7


that will knock out some farms

at the current 619 price  an s-7 at 10 cent power earns 10 cents a day



I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

I'm still hoping for it to go up in value myself.  Today was a drop for sure on Coinbase around 640 dropping to daily low of around 616, which was around 24 dollars.  So it was not huge but still decent.  But we have gone back up currently on Coinbase to 623 meaning in past 24 hours a drop of 17 or do dollars.  So after rebound not a horrible drop.

I have had a busy week so kinda less watching price then I normally do.  But I consider myself a long term holder for the most part so dropping is not my goal even in short term.  But hard to feel to bad when looking at current bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:    199,586,743,634 (-6.51%)
Adjust time:    After 237 Blocks, About 1.8 days
Hashrate(?):    1,453,881,284 GH/s


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Biodom on August 01, 2016, 03:59:13 PM
I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

1. you want btc to be at $480
2. you want bitmain to increase the price of S9

I think both of these would be beneficial to almost nobody, except those who trade stuff back and forth.

a. I want the price of btc to stay stable OR slowly increase.
b. I want bitmain to sell S9 for $1200 because this is what they are worth.

Cheers.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 01, 2016, 04:41:51 PM
I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

1. you want btc to be at $480
2. you want bitmain to increase the price of S9

I think both of these would be beneficial to almost nobody, except those who trade stuff back and forth.

a. I want the price of btc to stay stable OR slowly increase.
b. I want bitmain to sell S9 for $1200 because this is what they are worth.

Cheers.

here is how I look at it .  i took the risk of early adoption of the s-9 .  I had a lot of people say it would never work out.

so far so good.

I do not want
1)  btc to drop to 480 usd
2) s-9 to raise to 2500

either one is good for me and both will not happen.

so far  bitmaintech has stopped selling s-9's this also works for me.

Basically anything  that prevents massive diff increases works better for s-9 owners.

to me the absolute worse thing for btc would be for bitmaintech to open a batch of s-9's at 1200 usd today.

I have accepted that to mine you need 8 cent or lower power to stand a chance  which I do have in the solar array.  the big problem is I do not have  20 or 30 kwatts of it.

I continue to mine and hope for the best.

and yes coins can go to 2000 usd as that would work for me.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: HerbPean on August 01, 2016, 04:45:23 PM
I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

1. you want btc to be at $480
2. you want bitmain to increase the price of S9

I think both of these would be beneficial to almost nobody, except those who trade stuff back and forth.

a. I want the price of btc to stay stable OR slowly increase.
b. I want bitmain to sell S9 for $1200 because this is what they are worth.

Cheers.

here is how I look at it .  i took the risk of early adoption of the s-9 .  I had a lot of people say it would never work out.

so far so good.

I do not want
1)  btc to drop to 480 usd
2) s-9 to raise to 2500

either one is good for me and both will not happen.

so far  bitmaintech has stopped selling s-9's this also works for me.

Basically anything  that prevents massive diff increases works better for s-9 owners.

to me the absolute worse thing for btc would be for bitmaintech to open a batch of s-9's at 1200 usd today.

I have accepted that to mine you need 8 cent or lower power to stand a chance  which I do have in the solar array.  the big problem is I do not have  20 or 30 kwatts of it.

I continue to mine and hop for the best.

and yes coins can go to 2000 usd as that would work for me.

Yeah, hope you don't get fudge as much as I have with the S7 batch 1 ...

This is worst investment I made so far.

EDIT: that is exactly what made me not buy any S9 for now


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Biodom on August 01, 2016, 05:08:43 PM
I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

1. you want btc to be at $480
2. you want bitmain to increase the price of S9

I think both of these would be beneficial to almost nobody, except those who trade stuff back and forth.

a. I want the price of btc to stay stable OR slowly increase.
b. I want bitmain to sell S9 for $1200 because this is what they are worth.

Cheers.

here is how I look at it .  i took the risk of early adoption of the s-9 .  I had a lot of people say it would never work out.

so far so good.

I do not want
1)  btc to drop to 480 usd
2) s-9 to raise to 2500

either one is good for me and both will not happen.

so far  bitmaintech has stopped selling s-9's this also works for me.

Basically anything  that prevents massive diff increases works better for s-9 owners.

to me the absolute worse thing for btc would be for bitmaintech to open a batch of s-9's at 1200 usd today.

I have accepted that to mine you need 8 cent or lower power to stand a chance  which I do have in the solar array.  the big problem is I do not have  20 or 30 kwatts of it.

I continue to mine and hop for the best.

and yes coins can go to 2000 usd as that would work for me.

Yeah, hope you don't get fudge as much as I have with the S7 batch 1 ...

This is worst investment I made so far.

EDIT: that is exactly what made me not buy any S9 for now

Right! I don't think coin being $480 will work well for even current s9 owners, unless they want to buy more.
I think that phil's scenarios are optimizing for his current situation and plans, not necessarily for most people involved, but this is just my opinion.
So far, everything worked as he anticipated, though.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 01, 2016, 06:00:42 PM
I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

1. you want btc to be at $480
2. you want bitmain to increase the price of S9

I think both of these would be beneficial to almost nobody, except those who trade stuff back and forth.

a. I want the price of btc to stay stable OR slowly increase.
b. I want bitmain to sell S9 for $1200 because this is what they are worth.

Cheers.

here is how I look at it .  i took the risk of early adoption of the s-9 .  I had a lot of people say it would never work out.

so far so good.

I do not want
1)  btc to drop to 480 usd
2) s-9 to raise to 2500

either one is good for me and both will not happen.

so far  bitmaintech has stopped selling s-9's this also works for me.

Basically anything  that prevents massive diff increases works better for s-9 owners.

to me the absolute worse thing for btc would be for bitmaintech to open a batch of s-9's at 1200 usd today.

I have accepted that to mine you need 8 cent or lower power to stand a chance  which I do have in the solar array.  the big problem is I do not have  20 or 30 kwatts of it.

I continue to mine and hop for the best.

and yes coins can go to 2000 usd as that would work for me.

Yeah, hope you don't get fudge as much as I have with the S7 batch 1 ...

This is worst investment I made so far.

EDIT: that is exactly what made me not buy any S9 for now

Right! I don't think coin being $480 will work well for even current s9 owners, unless they want to buy more.
I think that phil's scenarios are optimizing for his current situation and plans, not necessarily for most people involved, but this is just my opinion.
So far, everything worked as he anticipated, though.

yeah  i wanted the s-5 long slow diff jump to repeat  as it was the only way I could earn a profit on the s-9  so far it has happened.

but I will need 2 more months of really flat growth  to be pretty sure of profit.  So I mentioned a price drop to 480 usd since it kills the s-7  thus dropping diff rates...

there are a lot of ways bitmaintech can play it as bitcoin is now pretty much in their hands.

they could simply build out s-9's like mad and sell them cheap  they have the money to do that  but I don't see it as a good move on their part.

maybe it is.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: HerbPean on August 01, 2016, 07:32:21 PM
The diff hashrate is back up big time @bitcoinwisdom


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: gt_addict on August 01, 2016, 07:55:23 PM
Looks like a sharp climb back up  :-\ On a plus note its heading for my pick  ;D


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: notlist3d on August 01, 2016, 08:07:37 PM
I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

1. you want btc to be at $480
2. you want bitmain to increase the price of S9

I think both of these would be beneficial to almost nobody, except those who trade stuff back and forth.

a. I want the price of btc to stay stable OR slowly increase.
b. I want bitmain to sell S9 for $1200 because this is what they are worth.

Cheers.

here is how I look at it .  i took the risk of early adoption of the s-9 .  I had a lot of people say it would never work out.

so far so good.

I do not want
1)  btc to drop to 480 usd
2) s-9 to raise to 2500

either one is good for me and both will not happen.

so far  bitmaintech has stopped selling s-9's this also works for me.

Basically anything  that prevents massive diff increases works better for s-9 owners.

to me the absolute worse thing for btc would be for bitmaintech to open a batch of s-9's at 1200 usd today.

I have accepted that to mine you need 8 cent or lower power to stand a chance  which I do have in the solar array.  the big problem is I do not have  20 or 30 kwatts of it.

I continue to mine and hope for the best.

and yes coins can go to 2000 usd as that would work for me.

Bitmain stopped selling batches for the moment, but it does not make me think they have stopped S9 production.   I can't imagine having a head start on all other companies right not and not be producing gear.  They could focus on internal or big sales temporary and that would make no S9's for a certain time period for us hobby miners.   I guess I'm kinda a pessimist on it.

If your a optimist you might go to the conclusion they are stuck on production of chips, or researching how to bring down cost's more.   These ideas would not make more more new hashing power so likely best for hobby miners in this section... but again I'm not sure what to think.   

Bitwisdom is up a bit:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:    201,749,088,686 (-5.50%)
Adjust time:    After 141 Blocks, About 1.0 days
Hashrate(?):    1,531,566,361 GH/s

And BTC dropped a little on Coinbase.   It has slowed the drop and went up slighly but still a decent loss from height of 23 hours of around 636 to around 615 currently.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 01, 2016, 08:47:50 PM
These are hard times for BTC.

   ETH and ETC look better on paper then BTC.

Does not mean that they are better but they look better.

I can buy 8 rx 480's at the ripoff price of 300 each  and build 2 four card rigs that WILL do 200mh using 1200 watts

two build cost is around 3200  usd

I can't get 2 s-9s for 3200  more like 4000  using 2700 watts


so more cost more watts and less earnings monthly. with the best basic mining gear available .

If you have an s-7 or an avalon 6  and you are at 8 cent power  you are right on the line to a negative miner.

For me I am diverse but a little lite on the coin end and the cash end of BTC ETH and ETC

I have also push my threshold from 10000 to 16000

of which

 8000 is asic gear s-9's and plus
5000 is gpu miner gear
2000 is BTC ETH ETC
1000 is cash

and I am not very comfortable  as coins and cash is too low
 


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 01, 2016, 09:06:49 PM
  ETH and ETC look better on paper then BTC.
Look better from a profitability standpoint maybe, and maybe from a cost-to-mine standpoint, but as viable digital currencies?  I think that only bitcoin can say, right now, that it looks good on paper for that usage.  But then again this isn't a speculation thread about viable currencies, it's all about price.  ;D

It's interesting to see almost the same pattern in hash power as before the halving, we're still seeing big drops and then everything coming back at the end of the period.  There's obviously a lot going on to drive price and hash power, but underlying it all seems to be some orchestrated effort and coordination between large farms playing with gear.

Sadly we'll likely never know for sure what makes it all happen...

kind of like five blind men and the elephant ;D

real time

423224 (Main Chain)   2016-08-01 21:00:53

421344 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:22:42

1880 blocks made

13 days  are 13 x 144 = 1872 blocks
21 hours are 21 x 6    =   126 blocks
40 mins   are 4 x 1 =           4

2002  blocks  would be 0%

1880/2002 - 1 =       -6.0939% real time



not certain  but winner looks to be in the range below:

blindminer         = -7.1

generalt             = -6.8

ingiltere              = -6.6
VRobb                = -6.5

dukeneptun         = -6.3
Psi                      = -6.2

ATguy                 = -6.0
DanielRo            = -5.9
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
testerman          = -5.7
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first

albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8 
gt_addict            = -4.7



Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: in2tactics on August 02, 2016, 01:30:57 AM
I guess that I was not too conservative at -7.5% after all. I was really hoping for more downward pressure, but I am sure the price remaining above $600 assisted in that way.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 02, 2016, 01:36:26 AM
I guess that I was not too conservative at -7.5% after all. I was really hoping for more downward pressure, but I am sure the price remaining above $600 assisted in that way.

yeah  a good quick drop to 550 would scare off more miners next jump.

 what we don't need now is any upwards price to 700 or higher as that will encourage higher diff.

there was 400 ph in s-5 or worse gear and 800 ph in s-7 or worse gear.

it would not take much price drop to truly lower the diff a lot.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 02, 2016, 02:53:45 AM
ETH and ETC look better on paper then BTC.

The moment that the bailout fork happened, Ether died. They destroyed immutability and inacted monetary policy to satisfy greed, resulting in loss of trust. At the same time they drew focus to the fact that Eth is far too complex for the JavaScript generation of programmers to correctly develop programs that work as intended.

Eth and Etc are both dead. It just might take a little time for them to become worthless.

That doesn't mean that there's not short term returns to be made. Even Paycoin made money for some people. I got crazy rental prices during that insanity, resulting in guaranteed ROI for my Spondoolies. I never owned any Paycoin though because I never believed in it. I don't believe in Eth either ;)

But back on topic, long term Eth (both forks) has no future. Bitcoin does, as long as we can learn from this mistake and not recreate it.



it is all relative  I see btc dying without a fix to the daily transaction cap
you see eth-etc dying due to the fork

I see the eth-etc fork as the simple reality for any coin.
 since any coin can agree to do it.

I am not hot on eth-etc as much as I am on the simple fact the  crypto-industry needs a gpu coin that allows  millions of transaction in a day.  not all asic such as the 256 al-gore-rhythm  of btc..

basically a coin like btc can do heavy lifting of major transactions  and stay with a small  daily transaction cap like the 700,000 max now which in practice is  really 280,000 to 330,000 a day.  we can't survive  with those numbers.

well time will tell what happens you could be correct. I could be right .  or most likely some other idea will come about .


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: TheYankeesWin! on August 02, 2016, 03:46:44 AM
So Phil  right now coinbase is at $602.43. 

So two questions will you buy more if it drops under $600.00?

What will a $575 price do to difficulty?


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 02, 2016, 03:50:52 AM
So Phil  right now coinbase is at $602.43.  

So two questions will you buy more if it drops under $600.00?

What will a $575 price do to difficulty?

1) no I won't buy more if it drops 599.99 or lower.  I buy more just over a threshold not just under a threshold.  So I just purchased  some at $602.43 a coin

2) 575 is not low enough to really drop difficulty by a ton.  I think  550 would be better to make FUD and herd shutdowns.  But if we go to 577 I will purchase some more coin.

We are at:

 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   202,185,139,697 (-5.30%)
Adjust time:   After 91 Blocks, About 15.8 hours

Hashrate(?):   1,540,772,916 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:45 (5.2 minutes ago)



https://blockchain.info/blocks/1468813873128


423269 (Main Chain)   2016-08-02 03:33:01
421344 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:22:42

1925 made

14 days = 2016 blocks
 3 hours =    18 blocks
 10 min =       1 block

2033 made would be 0%

1925/2033-1 = -5.31234%

since it has been past 2 weeks we must be a negative number.  but -5 is looking close to what we will be.


Oh to be fully off topic  the missing cabinet has arrived and my kitchen will be done this week.

So maybe 7 weeks  + or 1 a day.

Really looks good.



Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: petahashminer on August 02, 2016, 08:14:20 AM
18.07.2016 23:22   421344
02.08.2016 08:11   423293


1949   blocks next diff%: -5.79%    next diff 201126178721


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 02, 2016, 10:42:54 AM
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   202,256,595,348 (-5.26%)
Adjust time:   After 52 Blocks, About 9.0 hours


Hashrate(?):   1,514,129,011 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:

we dropped as low as 586 usd on coinbase last night.

with 52 blocks left  we could rollover

ATguy                 = -6.0
DanielRo            = -5.9
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
testerman          = -5.7
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first


albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8  
gt_addict            = -4.7

HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1

we are in the empty zone at the moment.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: TheYankeesWin! on August 02, 2016, 01:39:05 PM
33 blocks left!


Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   202,014,494,029 (-5.38%)
Adjust time:   After 33 Blocks, About 5.7 hours



Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Biodom on August 02, 2016, 03:25:51 PM
ETH and ETC look better on paper then BTC.

The moment that the bailout fork happened, Ether died. They destroyed immutability and inacted monetary policy to satisfy greed, resulting in loss of trust. At the same time they drew focus to the fact that Eth is far too complex for the JavaScript generation of programmers to correctly develop programs that work as intended.

Eth and Etc are both dead. It just might take a little time for them to become worthless.

That doesn't mean that there's not short term returns to be made. Even Paycoin made money for some people. I got crazy rental prices during that insanity, resulting in guaranteed ROI for my Spondoolies. I never owned any Paycoin though because I never believed in it. I don't believe in Eth either ;)

But back on topic, long term Eth (both forks) has no future. Bitcoin does, as long as we can learn from this mistake and not recreate it.



Disagree. Maybe in your opinion it died, but not in mine. All this immutability talk is a non-starter in my opinion, unless you are a computer program.
People do change things. I agree that ethereum is too complex, perhaps, and this could be it's weakness, but not the fact that they adjusted something.
I think this is helpful as far as learning what crypto can and cannot do. If anything, this might increase the pace of innovation for everyone.
Scaling of both btc and eth should accelerate quite soon. In btc we will know once the meeting summary is released and in eth/etc I hear 50-100 transactions/sec in Casper.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 02, 2016, 03:47:10 PM
ETH and ETC look better on paper then BTC.

The moment that the bailout fork happened, Ether died. They destroyed immutability and inacted monetary policy to satisfy greed, resulting in loss of trust. At the same time they drew focus to the fact that Eth is far too complex for the JavaScript generation of programmers to correctly develop programs that work as intended.

Eth and Etc are both dead. It just might take a little time for them to become worthless.

That doesn't mean that there's not short term returns to be made. Even Paycoin made money for some people. I got crazy rental prices during that insanity, resulting in guaranteed ROI for my Spondoolies. I never owned any Paycoin though because I never believed in it. I don't believe in Eth either ;)

But back on topic, long term Eth (both forks) has no future. Bitcoin does, as long as we can learn from this mistake and not recreate it.



Disagree. Maybe in your opinion it died, but not in mine. All this immutability talk is a non-starter in my opinion, unless you are a computer program.
People do change things. I agree that ethereum is too complex, perhaps, and this could be it's weakness, but not the fact that they adjusted something.
I think this is helpful as far as learning what crypto can and cannot do. If anything, this might increase the pace of innovation for everyone.
Scaling of both btc and eth should accelerate quite soon. In btc we will know once the meeting summary is released and in eth/etc I hear 50-100 transactions/sec in Casper.

so at 50 per second we are 3000 a minute and 180,000 an hour so in two hours 360,000

Vs 300,000 a day for the btc rate today.
More then 12 times the volume then btc does today.

I pretty much think. Any coin can changes rules any way they want.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed!
Post by: Cuidler on August 02, 2016, 03:54:54 PM
I dont get it, the price drops a little, but the hashrate recovers a bit. Pretty counter intuitive. Looks like many miners dont care about the price at all so the phil wish for the price to drop to low 500 could not help much, quite opposite, the bigger Bitcoin price, the better for both holders + miners.

Edit: deleted offtopic part of this post about ethereum, but I just reacted to the previous discussion here and thought it would be ok, but I agree with phil decission its Bitcoin difficulty thread and altcoin talks belongs elsewhere.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 02, 2016, 05:04:51 PM
we are drifting away from btc diff too much.

so deleting posts below I saved them here:

  ETH and ETC look better on paper then BTC.
Look better from a profitability standpoint maybe, and maybe from a cost-to-mine standpoint, but as viable digital currencies?  I think that only bitcoin can say, right now, that it looks good on paper for that usage.  But then again this isn't a speculation thread about viable currencies, it's all about price.  ;D

It's interesting to see almost the same pattern in hash power as before the halving, we're still seeing big drops and then everything coming back at the end of the period.  There's obviously a lot going on to drive price and hash power, but underlying it all seems to be some orchestrated effort and coordination between large farms playing with gear.

Sadly we'll likely never know for sure what makes it all happen...


ETH and ETC look better on paper then BTC.

The moment that the bailout fork happened, Ether died. They destroyed immutability and inacted monetary policy to satisfy greed, resulting in loss of trust. At the same time they drew focus to the fact that Eth is far too complex for the JavaScript generation of programmers to correctly develop programs that work as intended.

Eth and Etc are both dead. It just might take a little time for them to become worthless.

That doesn't mean that there's not short term returns to be made. Even Paycoin made money for some people. I got crazy rental prices during that insanity, resulting in guaranteed ROI for my Spondoolies. I never owned any Paycoin though because I never believed in it. I don't believe in Eth either ;)

But back on topic, long term Eth (both forks) has no future. Bitcoin does, as long as we can learn from this mistake and not recreate it.





But with the Vitalik bailout, ETH can hardly have a future.

says who? most developers disagree and continue development, which is what is most important.

Bailed out coin does not have future for me, I should have been more clear about this, so sorry. Its good ethereum developers continue the development, because ethereum needs it to be even useable for complicated smart contracts to be much safer in the future. The good thing is ETC can be functional copy of the ETH but without the bailout compromise, so there is nothing I have against using ethereum ETC for smart contracts if it become safe and usefull for something. Pretty pitty ethereum developers preffered the bailout, as I think no split would ever be if they refused the bailout in principe and honoured the DAO contract and learned from the mistake instead.
[/s]









BTC diff can be  manipulated by bitmaintech.

They can sell s-9's  too cheap flood the market with hash.
They can sell s-9's  too costly and let the market fight for high priced gear.
They can sell no s-9's at all  and let the market hunger for high priced gear.


This is pretty much the state of btc right now  only one supplier that will sell to any one   and  they are not selling at the moment.

So the next   90 days  I have no idea what they plan to do.

This is why right now I want price drop and hash drop to happen.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   201,390,054,505 (-5.67%)
Adjust time:   After 17 Blocks, About 2.9 hours

Hashrate(?):   1,521,031,054 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 31.0 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   13:0 (2.5 minutes ago)



we drifted from -5.38 to  -5.67    and may go to -5.8 to - 6.1 over the next 3 hours or so.

price is just under 600.

if we end at -6.0   and coin price settles at 550 - 575   I think we will see a second -5 or better for next jump


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: TheYankeesWin! on August 02, 2016, 06:30:55 PM
Phil looks like  one of the three below will win


vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   201,725,772,945 (-5.51%)
Adjust time:   After 3 Blocks, About 30.9 minutes
Hashrate(?):   1,551,964,820 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 30.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   14:30 (1.4 minutes ago)


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 02, 2016, 06:33:17 PM
https://blockchain.info/

423357 (Main Chain)   2016-08-02 18:15:55



3 blocks to go and very close finish


of note   and not for this jump but the next jump.







bitfinex has been hacked

https://i.imgur.com/MUa3FoGs.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/Qq3vPs9s.jpg


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1573150.msg15792005#msg15792005


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: TheYankeesWin! on August 02, 2016, 06:54:17 PM
So who won?

Veves1?  You moved him into the winning spot! Due to his error of picking someone else's pick!


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Aug 02 2016   201,893,210,853   -5.43%   1,445,207,896 GH/s


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 02, 2016, 06:57:59 PM
Looks like he was very lucky.

@ Veves1  please contact me with a BTC address for your prize.




On a different  note  I am on the hook at bitfinex   for funds.

Although my coins were all ETC and ETH

I have more then 700 usd worth of them.

If it is a full loss of 55ETC and 51ETH  I will have to end this contest.


@ Veves1   I have funds for you.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: notlist3d on August 02, 2016, 07:06:24 PM
https://blockchain.info/

423357 (Main Chain)   2016-08-02 18:15:55



3 blocks to go and very close finish


of note   and not for this jump but the next jump.







bitfinex has been hacked

https://i.imgur.com/MUa3FoGs.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/Qq3vPs9s.jpg


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1573150.msg15792005#msg15792005


I just saw this after looking at BTC values on different sites.  That is crazy on Bitfinex I know a lot loved them with advanced trading, they do not say extent of hack in terms of BTC.   I really hope we are not going to see another MT. Gox type of scare.  Will be interesting to see what happens on it.  Hoping it is not huge hopefully someone is able to follow BTC and see how big.

Either way BTC had a crap day in value and market could possibly be scared.  Hard to say what will happen.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 02, 2016, 07:13:07 PM
https://blockchain.info/

423357 (Main Chain)   2016-08-02 18:15:55



3 blocks to go and very close finish


of note   and not for this jump but the next jump.







bitfinex has been hacked

https://i.imgur.com/MUa3FoGs.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/Qq3vPs9s.jpg


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1573150.msg15792005#msg15792005


I just saw this after looking at BTC values on different sites.  That is crazy on Bitfinex I know a lot loved them with advanced trading, they do not say extent of hack in terms of BTC.   I really hope we are not going to see another MT. Gox type of scare.  Will be interesting to see what happens on it.  Hoping it is not huge hopefully someone is able to follow BTC and see how big.

Either way BTC had a crap day in value and market could possibly be scared.  Hard to say what will happen.

  The  saving grace is my 700 or so is in etc and eth . 

  That was 14 more contests. I am hopeful that I recover the funds, if not I will most likely end the contest on a sour note.





Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: NeuroticFish on August 02, 2016, 07:21:21 PM
Looks like he was very lucky.

@ Veves1  please contact me with a BTC address for your prize.




On a different  note  I am on the hook at bitfinex   for funds.

Although my coins were all ETC and ETH

I have more then 700 usd worth of them.

If it is a full loss of 55ETC and 51ETH  I will have to end this contest.


@ Veves1   I have funds for you.

Woah. I hope it's not that bad and the loses are not big.
Normally they should have a big part of the funds on cold storage.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Biodom on August 02, 2016, 09:07:32 PM
Sorry about it, Phil.
Since this is about to be locked, i would post my thoughts here, feel free to delete.

I am in kind of sour mood about recent developments.
As i see it, some bitcoiners got jealous of ethereum, hacked the DAO.
Ethereum foundation released a half-baked hard fork in response, which was supported by large numbers of users anyway.
Some bitcoiners wanted to support eth classic in lieu of such fork, did not let unforked chain die, causing 35% decrease in eth value while propping an alternative chain for, perhaps, the sole reasons of eventually dumping hacked ETC there.
Someone (maybe from ethereum side, just a reasonable guess) hacked bitfinex, causing 18% decrease in btc value, which is LARGER than the total market cap of ethereum.
As i see it, crypto space has become a toxic soup where very intelligent people try to up each other while regular folks suffer as a consequence.

I don't like where this is going.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: Mikestang on August 02, 2016, 11:10:23 PM
On a different  note  I am on the hook at bitfinex   for funds.

Although my coins were all ETC and ETH

I have more then 700 usd worth of them.

If it is a full loss of 55ETC and 51ETH  I will have to end this contest.


Dang, Phil, I am sorry to hear that!  Not just for your monetary loss, but the loss to this forum and community of this speculation game should you no longer be able to continue it.  I don't know if it would be worth your effort, but even without the prize it would still be fun to guess and speculate and keep these threads going.  Just a thought, hope you get some good news.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: merelcoin on August 03, 2016, 05:53:47 AM
On a different  note  I am on the hook at bitfinex   for funds.

Although my coins were all ETC and ETH

I have more then 700 usd worth of them.

If it is a full loss of 55ETC and 51ETH  I will have to end this contest.


Dang, Phil, I am sorry to hear that!  Not just for your monetary loss, but the loss to this forum and community of this speculation game should you no longer be able to continue it.  I don't know if it would be worth your effort, but even without the prize it would still be fun to guess and speculate and keep these threads going.  Just a thought, hope you get some good news.

I'd have to agree... Altough i seldomly post in these threads other than taking an (sometimes educated) guess, i'm still following your threads on an allmost daily basis . I'd still keep guessing once in a while even if there was no price.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: tertius993 on August 03, 2016, 06:34:10 AM
Can't believe how that difficulty period went - most odd with the falling price, and My guess was out by a country mile.


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: veves1 on August 03, 2016, 10:24:24 AM
I won !!!

philipma1957   USD, ETH, ETC, LTC  don't  have been stolen  ,  only BTC /   anyway   it's   very bad news

good day for all .



Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: vapourminer on August 03, 2016, 11:01:33 AM
congrats veves!

phil.. that bitfinex thing truly sucks.  hopefully you will come out ok.



Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 03, 2016, 11:06:32 AM
payment made.


https://blockchain.info/tx/91f03947214e8853119b3cd06ad380aba49afb14e5f8cab10c62acf2557da319



going to lock this up.


and by the way  the hash rate is rising!


new thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1573186.0


and the numbers for diff are below:

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Aug 02 2016   201,893,210,853   -5.43%   1,445,207,896 GH/s
Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s
Jul 04 2016   213,398,925,331   1.88%   1,527,569,009 GH/s
Jun 21 2016   209,453,158,595   6.83%   1,499,324,110 GH/s
Jun 08 2016   196,061,423,940   -1.63%   1,403,462,340 GH/s
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s
Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796         18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900         8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643        10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com


Title: Re: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd
Post by: philipma1957 on August 15, 2016, 07:48:23 PM
Okay first off VRobb  was the winner of last contest 50 usd in btc.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1538811.msg15471616#msg15471616
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1538811.msg15630301#msg15630301
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1538811.msg15630787#msg15630787




 So  a >>>>>     New game.

PICKS BEGIN AT 1116


When game began about 20 months ago coins were about 200 usd  0.10 btc was about 20 usd. we paid  in .10 btc numbers.  Our first donator to the game  spent over 2.8 coins.  I have been the sole payer for the last 4 months and have paid .9 coins  so 3.7 coins have been awarded for free, nada, nothing  no cost.  I am still able to do this due to my signature fee.  Which I put into payments here.


First rule is I decide all rules since it is a free chance to get some coin.
Second rule is you need to be  a forum member since April 15th of 2016
Third rule is you need to have made 30 posts.  I will read them and decide if you appear to be real.
Fourth rule is if I think you are double dipping your picks won't be allowed
Fifth rule is we open picks at 1116 and end picks at 716   just about 2.5 days to pick.
Sixth rule is  this is for fun so I tend to allow off topic and don't delete very much.
Seventh rule is your pick should look like  -1.2 = philipma1957 or   +1.2 = philipma1957
Eight rule is  if you pick a used pick I will assign a pick to you and you are stuck with the one I assign.
Ninth rule no pick changes
Tenth rule no pre picks via pm's
Eleven rule no late picks.

Anything I missed above feel free to mention.

I self mod due to seriouscoin
I always pick -1.2 due to seriouscoin




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   213,066,572,865 (-0.20%)

Adjust time:   After 1988 Blocks, About 13.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,615,967,409 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.5 minutes
Updated:   23:20 (2.3 minutes ago)

current numbers above  I notice some graph issues between two websites.
bitcoinwisdom seems to have a false spike

I need to look into the issue.  if we need to change sites for official diff numbers I will
https://i.imgur.com/3jmgScv.png