Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd

[philipma1957]

These are hard times for BTC.

   ETH and ETC look better on paper then BTC.

Does not mean that they are better but they look better.

I can buy 8 rx 480's at the ripoff price of 300 each  and build 2 four card rigs that WILL do 200mh using 1200 watts

two build cost is around 3200  usd

I can't get 2 s-9s for 3200  more like 4000  using 2700 watts


so more cost more watts and less earnings monthly. with the best basic mining gear available .

If you have an s-7 or an avalon 6  and you are at 8 cent power  you are right on the line to a negative miner.

For me I am diverse but a little lite on the coin end and the cash end of BTC ETH and ETC

I have also push my threshold from 10000 to 16000

of which

 8000 is asic gear s-9's and plus
5000 is gpu miner gear
2000 is BTC ETH ETC
1000 is cash

and I am not very comfortable  as coins and cash is too low
 

[philipma1957]

  ETH and ETC look better on paper then BTC.

Look better from a profitability standpoint maybe, and maybe from a cost-to-mine standpoint, but as viable digital currencies?  I think that only bitcoin can say, right now, that it looks good on paper for that usage.  But then again this isn't a speculation thread about viable currencies, it's all about price.  

It's interesting to see almost the same pattern in hash power as before the halving, we're still seeing big drops and then everything coming back at the end of the period.  There's obviously a lot going on to drive price and hash power, but underlying it all seems to be some orchestrated effort and coordination between large farms playing with gear.

Sadly we'll likely never know for sure what makes it all happen...

kind of like five blind men and the elephant

real time

423224 (Main Chain)   2016-08-01 21:00:53

421344 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:22:42

1880 blocks made

13 days  are 13 x 144 = 1872 blocks
21 hours are 21 x 6    =   126 blocks
40 mins   are 4 x 1 =           4

2002  blocks  would be 0%

1880/2002 - 1 =       -6.0939% real time



not certain  but winner looks to be in the range below:

blindminer         = -7.1

generalt             = -6.8

ingiltere              = -6.6
VRobb                = -6.5

dukeneptun         = -6.3
Psi                      = -6.2

ATguy                 = -6.0
DanielRo            = -5.9
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
testerman          = -5.7
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first

albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8 
gt_addict            = -4.7

[in2tactics]

I guess that I was not too conservative at -7.5% after all. I was really hoping for more downward pressure, but I am sure the price remaining above $600 assisted in that way.

[philipma1957]

I guess that I was not too conservative at -7.5% after all. I was really hoping for more downward pressure, but I am sure the price remaining above $600 assisted in that way.

yeah  a good quick drop to 550 would scare off more miners next jump.

 what we don't need now is any upwards price to 700 or higher as that will encourage higher diff.

there was 400 ph in s-5 or worse gear and 800 ph in s-7 or worse gear.

it would not take much price drop to truly lower the diff a lot.

[philipma1957]

ETH and ETC look better on paper then BTC.

The moment that the bailout fork happened, Ether died. They destroyed immutability and inacted monetary policy to satisfy greed, resulting in loss of trust. At the same time they drew focus to the fact that Eth is far too complex for the JavaScript generation of programmers to correctly develop programs that work as intended.

Eth and Etc are both dead. It just might take a little time for them to become worthless.

That doesn't mean that there's not short term returns to be made. Even Paycoin made money for some people. I got crazy rental prices during that insanity, resulting in guaranteed ROI for my Spondoolies. I never owned any Paycoin though because I never believed in it. I don't believe in Eth either

But back on topic, long term Eth (both forks) has no future. Bitcoin does, as long as we can learn from this mistake and not recreate it.

it is all relative  I see btc dying without a fix to the daily transaction cap
you see eth-etc dying due to the fork

I see the eth-etc fork as the simple reality for any coin.
 since any coin can agree to do it.

I am not hot on eth-etc as much as I am on the simple fact the  crypto-industry needs a gpu coin that allows  millions of transaction in a day.  not all asic such as the 256 al-gore-rhythm  of btc..

basically a coin like btc can do heavy lifting of major transactions  and stay with a small  daily transaction cap like the 700,000 max now which in practice is  really 280,000 to 330,000 a day.  we can't survive  with those numbers.

well time will tell what happens you could be correct. I could be right .  or most likely some other idea will come about .

[TheYankeesWin!]

So Phil  right now coinbase is at $602.43. 

So two questions will you buy more if it drops under $600.00?

What will a $575 price do to difficulty?

[philipma1957]

So Phil  right now coinbase is at $602.43.  

So two questions will you buy more if it drops under $600.00?

What will a $575 price do to difficulty?

1) no I won't buy more if it drops 599.99 or lower.  I buy more just over a threshold not just under a threshold.  So I just purchased  some at $602.43 a coin

2) 575 is not low enough to really drop difficulty by a ton.  I think  550 would be better to make FUD and herd shutdowns.  But if we go to 577 I will purchase some more coin.

We are at:

 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   202,185,139,697 (-5.30%)
Adjust time:   After 91 Blocks, About 15.8 hours

Hashrate(?):   1,540,772,916 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:45 (5.2 minutes ago)



https://blockchain.info/blocks/1468813873128


423269 (Main Chain)   2016-08-02 03:33:01
421344 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:22:42

1925 made

14 days = 2016 blocks
 3 hours =    18 blocks
 10 min =       1 block

2033 made would be 0%

1925/2033-1 = -5.31234%

since it has been past 2 weeks we must be a negative number.  but -5 is looking close to what we will be.


Oh to be fully off topic  the missing cabinet has arrived and my kitchen will be done this week.

So maybe 7 weeks  + or 1 a day.

Really looks good.

[petahashminer]

18.07.2016 23:22   421344
02.08.2016 08:11   423293


1949   blocks next diff%: -5.79%    next diff 201126178721

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   202,256,595,348 (-5.26%)
Adjust time:   After 52 Blocks, About 9.0 hours


Hashrate(?):   1,514,129,011 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:

we dropped as low as 586 usd on coinbase last night.

with 52 blocks left  we could rollover

ATguy                 = -6.0
DanielRo            = -5.9
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
testerman          = -5.7
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first


albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8  
gt_addict            = -4.7

HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1

we are in the empty zone at the moment.

[TheYankeesWin!]

33 blocks left!


Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   202,014,494,029 (-5.38%)
Adjust time:   After 33 Blocks, About 5.7 hours

[Biodom]

ETH and ETC look better on paper then BTC.

The moment that the bailout fork happened, Ether died. They destroyed immutability and inacted monetary policy to satisfy greed, resulting in loss of trust. At the same time they drew focus to the fact that Eth is far too complex for the JavaScript generation of programmers to correctly develop programs that work as intended.

Eth and Etc are both dead. It just might take a little time for them to become worthless.

That doesn't mean that there's not short term returns to be made. Even Paycoin made money for some people. I got crazy rental prices during that insanity, resulting in guaranteed ROI for my Spondoolies. I never owned any Paycoin though because I never believed in it. I don't believe in Eth either

But back on topic, long term Eth (both forks) has no future. Bitcoin does, as long as we can learn from this mistake and not recreate it.

Disagree. Maybe in your opinion it died, but not in mine. All this immutability talk is a non-starter in my opinion, unless you are a computer program.
People do change things. I agree that ethereum is too complex, perhaps, and this could be it's weakness, but not the fact that they adjusted something.
I think this is helpful as far as learning what crypto can and cannot do. If anything, this might increase the pace of innovation for everyone.
Scaling of both btc and eth should accelerate quite soon. In btc we will know once the meeting summary is released and in eth/etc I hear 50-100 transactions/sec in Casper.

[philipma1957]

ETH and ETC look better on paper then BTC.

The moment that the bailout fork happened, Ether died. They destroyed immutability and inacted monetary policy to satisfy greed, resulting in loss of trust. At the same time they drew focus to the fact that Eth is far too complex for the JavaScript generation of programmers to correctly develop programs that work as intended.

Eth and Etc are both dead. It just might take a little time for them to become worthless.

That doesn't mean that there's not short term returns to be made. Even Paycoin made money for some people. I got crazy rental prices during that insanity, resulting in guaranteed ROI for my Spondoolies. I never owned any Paycoin though because I never believed in it. I don't believe in Eth either

But back on topic, long term Eth (both forks) has no future. Bitcoin does, as long as we can learn from this mistake and not recreate it.

Disagree. Maybe in your opinion it died, but not in mine. All this immutability talk is a non-starter in my opinion, unless you are a computer program.
People do change things. I agree that ethereum is too complex, perhaps, and this could be it's weakness, but not the fact that they adjusted something.
I think this is helpful as far as learning what crypto can and cannot do. If anything, this might increase the pace of innovation for everyone.
Scaling of both btc and eth should accelerate quite soon. In btc we will know once the meeting summary is released and in eth/etc I hear 50-100 transactions/sec in Casper.

so at 50 per second we are 3000 a minute and 180,000 an hour so in two hours 360,000

Vs 300,000 a day for the btc rate today.
More then 12 times the volume then btc does today.

I pretty much think. Any coin can changes rules any way they want.

[Cuidler]

I dont get it, the price drops a little, but the hashrate recovers a bit. Pretty counter intuitive. Looks like many miners dont care about the price at all so the phil wish for the price to drop to low 500 could not help much, quite opposite, the bigger Bitcoin price, the better for both holders + miners.

Edit: deleted offtopic part of this post about ethereum, but I just reacted to the previous discussion here and thought it would be ok, but I agree with phil decission its Bitcoin difficulty thread and altcoin talks belongs elsewhere.

[philipma1957]

we are drifting away from btc diff too much.

so deleting posts below I saved them here:

  ETH and ETC look better on paper then BTC.

Look better from a profitability standpoint maybe, and maybe from a cost-to-mine standpoint, but as viable digital currencies?  I think that only bitcoin can say, right now, that it looks good on paper for that usage.  But then again this isn't a speculation thread about viable currencies, it's all about price.  

It's interesting to see almost the same pattern in hash power as before the halving, we're still seeing big drops and then everything coming back at the end of the period.  There's obviously a lot going on to drive price and hash power, but underlying it all seems to be some orchestrated effort and coordination between large farms playing with gear.

Sadly we'll likely never know for sure what makes it all happen...

ETH and ETC look better on paper then BTC.

The moment that the bailout fork happened, Ether died. They destroyed immutability and inacted monetary policy to satisfy greed, resulting in loss of trust. At the same time they drew focus to the fact that Eth is far too complex for the JavaScript generation of programmers to correctly develop programs that work as intended.

Eth and Etc are both dead. It just might take a little time for them to become worthless.

That doesn't mean that there's not short term returns to be made. Even Paycoin made money for some people. I got crazy rental prices during that insanity, resulting in guaranteed ROI for my Spondoolies. I never owned any Paycoin though because I never believed in it. I don't believe in Eth either

But back on topic, long term Eth (both forks) has no future. Bitcoin does, as long as we can learn from this mistake and not recreate it.

But with the Vitalik bailout, ETH can hardly have a future.

says who? most developers disagree and continue development, which is what is most important.

Bailed out coin does not have future for me, I should have been more clear about this, so sorry. Its good ethereum developers continue the development, because ethereum needs it to be even useable for complicated smart contracts to be much safer in the future. The good thing is ETC can be functional copy of the ETH but without the bailout compromise, so there is nothing I have against using ethereum ETC for smart contracts if it become safe and usefull for something. Pretty pitty ethereum developers preffered the bailout, as I think no split would ever be if they refused the bailout in principe and honoured the DAO contract and learned from the mistake instead.

[/s]









BTC diff can be  manipulated by bitmaintech.

They can sell s-9's  too cheap flood the market with hash.
They can sell s-9's  too costly and let the market fight for high priced gear.
They can sell no s-9's at all  and let the market hunger for high priced gear.


This is pretty much the state of btc right now  only one supplier that will sell to any one   and  they are not selling at the moment.

So the next   90 days  I have no idea what they plan to do.

This is why right now I want price drop and hash drop to happen.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   201,390,054,505 (-5.67%)
Adjust time:   After 17 Blocks, About 2.9 hours

Hashrate(?):   1,521,031,054 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 31.0 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   13:0 (2.5 minutes ago)



we drifted from -5.38 to  -5.67    and may go to -5.8 to - 6.1 over the next 3 hours or so.

price is just under 600.

if we end at -6.0   and coin price settles at 550 - 575   I think we will see a second -5 or better for next jump

[TheYankeesWin!]

Phil looks like  one of the three below will win


vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   201,725,772,945 (-5.51%)
Adjust time:   After 3 Blocks, About 30.9 minutes
Hashrate(?):   1,551,964,820 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 30.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   14:30 (1.4 minutes ago)

[philipma1957]

https://blockchain.info/

423357 (Main Chain)   2016-08-02 18:15:55



3 blocks to go and very close finish


of note   and not for this jump but the next jump.







bitfinex has been hacked






https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1573150.msg15792005#msg15792005

[TheYankeesWin!]

So who won?

Veves1?  You moved him into the winning spot! Due to his error of picking someone else's pick!


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Aug 02 2016   201,893,210,853   -5.43%   1,445,207,896 GH/s

[philipma1957]

Looks like he was very lucky.

@ Veves1  please contact me with a BTC address for your prize.




On a different  note  I am on the hook at bitfinex   for funds.

Although my coins were all ETC and ETH

I have more then 700 usd worth of them.

If it is a full loss of 55ETC and 51ETH  I will have to end this contest.


@ Veves1   I have funds for you.

[notlist3d]

https://blockchain.info/

423357 (Main Chain)   2016-08-02 18:15:55



3 blocks to go and very close finish


of note   and not for this jump but the next jump.







bitfinex has been hacked






https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1573150.msg15792005#msg15792005

I just saw this after looking at BTC values on different sites.  That is crazy on Bitfinex I know a lot loved them with advanced trading, they do not say extent of hack in terms of BTC.   I really hope we are not going to see another MT. Gox type of scare.  Will be interesting to see what happens on it.  Hoping it is not huge hopefully someone is able to follow BTC and see how big.

Either way BTC had a crap day in value and market could possibly be scared.  Hard to say what will happen.

[philipma1957]

https://blockchain.info/

423357 (Main Chain)   2016-08-02 18:15:55



3 blocks to go and very close finish


of note   and not for this jump but the next jump.







bitfinex has been hacked






https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1573150.msg15792005#msg15792005

I just saw this after looking at BTC values on different sites.  That is crazy on Bitfinex I know a lot loved them with advanced trading, they do not say extent of hack in terms of BTC.   I really hope we are not going to see another MT. Gox type of scare.  Will be interesting to see what happens on it.  Hoping it is not huge hopefully someone is able to follow BTC and see how big.

Either way BTC had a crap day in value and market could possibly be scared.  Hard to say what will happen.

  The  saving grace is my 700 or so is in etc and eth . 

  That was 14 more contests. I am hopeful that I recover the funds, if not I will most likely end the contest on a sour note.