Bitcoin Forum

We're finally back in the high 700s after a bounce to 833$ (Bitstamp).

So what's next?

So far i think we'll have a short congestion phase before a new explosion of volatility.
Likely a move down with a possible target in the 680 - 690$ range, within 2-3 days.

Imho.

Bitcoins protocol fundamentals are still broken. Bitcoin does not scale, offers no privacy and no fungibility.
The community largely still only cares about making profit in fiat, not about establishing and evolving a revolutionary alternative monetary system.

I don't see any reason at this point for the price to dive below $700 any time soon. Right now the price is somewhat recovering where it's of course still possible to see it go down back to $770-$780, but not much deeper than that. Especially now this whole China thing is being pushed to the background. People realize it was stupid to sell like there is no tomorrow. My target is maintaining the $800 level.

No, you must be wrong. The recent introduction of segwit must be a good witness for that. In a consensus environment it takes time to activate, yet improvements are happening for a revolution of how we are going to exchange.

In short term we can expect bitcoin prices to sustain at current price levels around $850 to gain more power to leap toward $1000 price levels.

I'm not sure now, I was thinking the BTC could drop near to $600, but it's stable near $800...


You are thinking a bit high, no? BTC hitted $1000 with some difficulty and some time later the price go down with all strenght. I can't assure this, but I think it's better to wait BTC hit $700 or $600 to start buying again to have total profit on medium-long term.

700 or 600 may not come, but 800 level is already here. It is already a good level to buy since the FUD about the exchanges in China is starting to calm down. You can leave some amount for that level but it is already safe to start buying some bitcoin right now.

I can't say that 800 is the bottom but there could be a better price and hopefully see the price to reach the 1k again at the end of the month of in February. Within 2-3 days I can't say anything because it is a short frame and many surprises can happen.

What did you expect? We need money, it's a reality, and we, I say we cause all of us are in the same shit,  we are depending from that money.
Establishing and evolving alternative monetary system sounds great, but people can't think and work on empty stomach. Alternative for monetary fond is just that, another monetary system where rich people can do what they wish and others are slaves.

I have the same opinion as you. We will see the price try to go up but we will likely see Bitcoin back to the lower 700s and higher 600's. I do not think it will happen within 2 or 3 days however. Maybe within 2 to 3 weeks. That is because some people react late and tend to hope that the price will go up again.

For the next two to three days, I think bitcoin's price will be 850$-700$ and will stabilize at these prices and it will be there for weeks before we see another little or big pump or dump. It can also be that it might hit more than  850$ since panic selling stopped now but the chance of it happening is 50/50 because of China's regulation. Hope it hits more than 850$ though.

the next thing that we do is waiting for another increasing the price if we already to buy bitcoin in price of $700, but if you are not buy in that price, then maybe you can buy it now because i think the price will be increase soon so you can make nice profit. but i think its not possible to go down in under of 680 but its only depend on the market conditions and the panic selling from the traders.

Update to OP.

We're now sitting at about the top of a (hypothetical) channel.
Maximum was 838$.  Current is 821$.

I think we're going to move to the bottom end of the channel (about 760$ ), unless price creeps up from here (unlikely so far).

Volume is low. Volatility may pick up at any time.
Most likely i think we'll see congestion preceeding a bold move within 2 days.

I think it can be a move down and i have doubts 750$ will hold twice.
This said it's not possibile to make a reliable prediction with current volume.

I think anything over 800$  for the bitcoin price is the good price. We saw bitcoin pump to about 1100$ but these things are temporary. What is important is the sustainability at a good price. I see bitcoin might reach 700$ for a short while but will sustain above 800$.

A lot of that volume was fake, china has made bold moves.

Auto trading bots should be slowing down, leveraging in china will come to an end and in theory a more honest btc.  That just means we should see more honest volumes and less volatility in the market.  The leveraging was a big problem, when people in china can't leverage 100:1 then it makes a huge impact on the volatility.

The future is actually bright among all the fud.

it has never touched $700 yet, maybe you mean $900? it's currently not far away from where it was before chinese begin to dump

it was $900+ now $830, after a bottom below $800, not sure if this is a double bottom or it really started to recover, i'm inclined to think it's the latter

As quoted there won't be big impact felt in the short term, the price sustainability will be there with the price being stabilizing within the range of $800-$900. Possibly bitcoin won't go low to $700, even when world market and Chinese market were found low or down.

SegWit increases efficiency maybe 2 or 3 times, which just pushes the problem forward and is no solution.
It also does nothing to make Bitcoin truly fungible or add privacy in any other way.

Retrace up to $900 region.

I agree that eventually the larger blocks won't be enough to carry the weight of all the transactions at the time the userbase grows larger, but that's not an issue right now. Segwit will take care of the current "issue" and makes sure we can move at least 1 perhaps 2 years further. What happens after that is something that should be figured out by that time. Regarding the privacy aspect, the far majority of the people here are more than happy with how Bitcoin is. If they want to add an extra layer of privacy on certain transactions, then these people should head over to mixers or even certain altcoins to do the trick. It's that simple.

at this point talking about what will happen in the short term is stupid because it is not possible to speculate about it with certainty, and it will only attract trolls and FUD spreaders like kwukduck to speak nonsense.
in short if you trade short term you are taking huge risks and nobody can say anything more than pure guesses.

So far price is still struggling to break through resistance zone / top of channel ( about 830 to 845 $ ).
Also the move from the last lower low to 751$ to 838$ was done with low and weakening volume.

Unless volume picks up i see few chances to go up,  a resuming of the down move is more likely.
Obviously any strong volatility peak may push the price to any directions.

the volume was actually pretty high from what i have been seeing. and it is because the volatility has been going both ways. it is not just in the dropping part of things but also when price rises.
the same panic that caused the drop is also causing the rise, those weak hands who hasn't gave up yet bought back in the fear of missing out.

I guess, the only thing we can do since no one has the right amount of volume to make a direction for bitcoin, then I guess we should just about our normal business as we have been doing in the past and wait till when we witness something of joy in this "world" again. Since, I can absolutely say the influence I have on the price increase is next to nothing and now it has fallen, same thing occurs for it to rise again, I am sure it does not need my influence. I am still looking at the range of $750- $800s...

It will slowly slide down over the rest of the weekend. People wait for what will happen on Monday in China - so they don't buy now. Then on Monday it'll drop some more - because the trend will weight down. I don't think it will make a lower low - but it is possible if there are indeed new bad news. Then on Tuesday it'll start bouncing back towards 1000 when people will start buying back. With lots of volatility.

Just a speculation.

We will continue in the $700-800 range for a while and then eventually once things settle down we will see a new pump to $1000, this is probably the most reasonable analysis, given that no news that can disturb this happen of course. If a bad news happens, we know how fast the price plummets, but the good news is, we know how fast it recovers too, so buy and hold.

Has fungibility really been an issue so far? I believe some people are overusing it to cause a certain amount of fear in the community. Nothing big has really happened as far as fungibility is concerned. We have seen Bitcoins come and go from the dark markets without any effect when to arrives to the people who use it for legitimate purposes.

What is going to happen in China on monday that will effect the price of bitcoin? And if it is going to drop, can it really bounce back that quick within one day? I do not know what will happen on monday but I do not think the price will drop more. It is quite holding steady at above 800. I think this our support level now.

we have to wait to see how the price of bitcoin move today. according to my analysis at this time the best thing is to wait for price movements bitcoin. because we are still at a safe price range. still likely to be the pumping bitcoin in January of this.

I would pay attention to the range around $838-40 - the last local high. In the last hours we are seeing a slight price increase (well, it's not so insignificant: more than 3%). On BTCChina the equivalent is 5.735 CNY.

I expect this point to be tested, and if we pass it, it's possible that the price jumps again to the $850-920 area where we stranded in the last sideway movement.

This year bitcoin will be in a long term way. Dont go for shorts or you will loose.at this current price this is the right time to go long. If you want to get big and high profit always be a bull.

short term, no one can tell.... you should buy and keep, bitcoin is always long term unless you know when the price drop or increase....

It is morning trading hours in China right now and I believe that they are leading the pack in buying back again. Bitcoin's average price in $ is at around $830 and hopefully you are correct that $800 is the new floor. It will be another psychological set back if it will go down back below $600 again. I know it is an opportunity to buy more but I like to see it more to go up.

$800 is the new floor because in my opinion it doesn't matter that we saw it break and go below down to $735 since it didn't last more than a day and if you remember there was lots of panic and FUD circling bitcoin those two days about China,... just like always.
we'll have to wait and see if it holds for more days but for now it seems to be strong and holding this price up while the volume is still as high as any other stable price before it indicating accumulation.

Update to OP.

Price still in "congestion" phase and 3 days already passed by.
Except for timeframe ( which was wrong ) i have to confirm my opening post.

I still can't see much margin for an upmove, the  given target (855$) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg17486789#msg17486789) still applies in my opinion.
I consider a move down to the 700s more likely and 600s are not ruled out.

I think when 838 USD / ~5730 CNY (the last local high I mentioned in my previous post) are broken, then it's likely that the price will also break 855, as it would be an indicator that the bearish tendency is about to break.

838 is not far away, but on the other hand on the order books there are many open sell orders in the 825-840 region, in USD and in CNY. It's also true that the volume is low now and that would be more of a bearish indicator.

Difficult to predict. We may even be stuck in a sideways market (what would not be a bad thing, considering the block size problem lacks a solution for now as Segwit is far away from being activated).

Expect a retractment down to $700 and a levelout for a few months before we see another rise.

My prediction seems to have been pretty good ;) So we're actually again in a bullish mood. The short correction to the $880-900 region has been healthy in the sense that it didn't overheat.

For the actual short term, my guess is that the price should stay in this region (850-920) for a couple of days. If we fall below 850, then we may see another test of the 780-800s but I think it won't stay there too long. If not, the next important mark is the 930-940 region - the last high of the first "dead cat bounce". If we pass 950, I think it's all bullish.

You were 100% right for the 24 hours past!

i agree with your speculation for the most but but i think it is still possible to see lower prices such as below $850 because in the past things like this happened a lot and they are mostly for testing the bottom resistance and cheap coins but i do not think going below $850 means $780-800 is possible.

I think his prediction need to be fixed at some points. Since there is no connection to events happening around the Earth, I do not think that it is correct 100%. On tomorrow, Trump will officially become the next president of the USA and it is certain that this event will cause a big damage to the world economy, which helps Bitcoin to increase its prices from 50$ to 100$. Another event which I think is important to be sorted here is the Chinese new year. The Chinese new year roles an important part on every living Chinese and Chinese investors tend to sell their Bitcoin on those days.

Now surprisingly, bitcoin go up more instead of down, You can see bitcoin is here at $892, near about $900, and you are talking about bitcoin would be come down within 2 or 3 days. I also think about it, even i think in the next month bitcoin might be come down at $500 to $600. But surprisingly, it couldn't happen.
But it is also good for us, i mean it a good chance to make money more.   

tbh, if we cannot stay upper than 900$ today, I really think we need to prepare to go down very quickly.
we have a resistance at 900 that we need to go over very soon or...

895$ right now
push push we must be over 900 to finish that day

900 isn't that important (we've already broken it again). The important region is $930-940, because there was one of the last important "local highs".

@slapper: Thanks for mentioning Chinese New Year, that could indeed affect the price short-term. This year, it is on January 28. So we have less than a week still for a price increase.

In the case of a rally now (I think it's possible because of the fast recovery in the last days and because some view the Trump inauguration as a bullish event, but not mandatory) it's possible that, because of the Chinese New Year, we will stay below of the old All Time High of $1163 USD. That could be even interpreted as a double top in the making - a bearish sign.

Strong possibility of another leg down, judging by my indicators.
First target about 880$, but can spike further down to 840$.
Then we'll see.

It is not about technical indicators where you can something influencing the price. Indicators didn't show us current decline because trend was bullish.
That is, until China stepped in again and started to mess things up with their exchange inspections and suspended withdrawals.
And as always Chinese traders exaggerated response caused price to crash.

Not sure about that.
It ultimately boils down to opinions.

In my opinion it was the last part of the uptrend being abnormal (=not sustainable) and we're now going back to normal.
The Chinese news basically ignited a healthy correction and made it happen at a faster pace, but it was due already.

Moreover many people are concerned by the China exchanges withdrawal locking and blame PBOC for that.
I fear instead the locking has to do with liquidity problems on those exchanges and having experienced the Gox failure i would recommend being much cautious in this phase.

For what's worth, just a humble heads-up.
You'd better lock in profit and wait.

https://i.imgur.com/MAGdLYC.gif

Volatility about to explode within a couple days.
Several hundreds $ sudden price movement ahead.

Can you be more specific,what do you expect the price of bitcoin will be and what kind of explosion are you expecting and are you really expecting a bull or a bear market,i am really expecting for a correction after all these rally and i just want to know what your thoughts are because i am still confused about your analysis .

I'd love to see us break above $2000 & stay there but I think there will be a lot of resistance if/when we get near $2000.

because of those people who see opportunity they will sell their holdings and dumped it but if we able to stand up
and keep this much bigger ath will be expected, we just needed to hold and follow the flow long hold will be more
profitable.

I am expecting a correction as well, personally.
Yet i don't want to fool myself, and i'm not willing to see what's not there.
I'm not going to shout hodl nor sell, plenty of people are doing that already.

Chart so far pictures a big triangle about to break. That will brings in volatility soon.
keep an eye on that, look for volume pick-up.

Price may move by about 300 - 600$ from here, not necessarily in one single leg.
Probably 2 - 3 or more (zig-zag).

RSI and volume evaluation so far tell me it's going to break down, but picture may change quickly.

This is a situation where caution wins in my opinion, hence my heads-up.
Traders often underestimate the risk and overestimate their skill.

Worst case i can afford losing some potential profit by buying back after a hypothetic break-up of the triangle.
So far i've liquidated 50% of my BTC assets already and i will adjust my position after triangle breaking.
This way i don't care if it will break up or down, no blind guess needed.

It may work for other people as well.

Then let's shout out Buy! I still do hope it doesn't go down anymore. But if it does I will totally buy and will horde it next time it drops to a comfortable level that I am sure that it won't go down anymore. But yeah, I also believe there will be a correction, the prices are too damn high.

Currently trend is extremely weak, a dip may occur soon.

In case it goes down deep: there's a strong area of support between about 1320 and 1400$.
Worst case i think it won't break under 1200$, unless for a sudden spike.

Don't hurry though.

Nowadays i guess bitcoins are becoming too much short term as the price of bitcoin is changing very randomly and it might happen that in one night the price of bitcoins falls down very much below.

Keep an eye on this chart.
Interesting stuff.

https://azopstability.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/R6.png

Bitcoin price was always volatile so this is not something new right now. But if you keep on holding as passive trader, you will not loss anything due to all this huge daily price swing. To make profit with day trading, all this swings are necessary and almost all trading assets have volatility in price.

I've just re-run my backtesting tool, running some raw trading strategy across 180 days.
9 trades done, 8 of which were profitable and 1 at loss.

It outperformed the buy and hold strategy by about 18.9%, which is interesting.
Yet it can well be totally random and it's difficult to actually miss a trade when prices go almost steadily up.

The only think i consider worth is that the tool closed its last trade yesterday, @1784$.
I wonder if he's right.  We'll see.

Bitcoin is every type of investment that you want. Main point of importance is that short term volatility only matters if you're trading. If you're just holding your coins for a long period of time, why would you get bothered by the volatility? Doesn't make any sense. I have been holding my coins all the way till now. If you look at how much massive pumps and dumps we have gone through in the last years, how much impact did it have on me? Absolutely nothing. Results in the long term is the only thing that matters....

In the meantime ...

https://i.imgur.com/YM5cavB.png

Breaking tonight or tomorrow?

My custom indicator on daily ( basically a revised and weighted MACD ) says it's time to go down ( blue = signal ).

https://i.imgur.com/dYLl21D.gif

Pretty similar figure, if compared to Jan 5th 2017 or Feb 7th 2017 or June 19th 2016.
In these cases a sharper correction followed, whatever the size.


Meaningful or not?
Don't know, time will tell.

EDIT: pictures are not at same scale.

What kind of correction do you expect? That's clearly the bull run now and everything is because of bitcoin adoption by Japan. I think bitcoin will stabilize soon and we will see some little fall again.

What i suggested here is caution. It can even shoot up.
I'm not inclined to wild speculation.

However, IF a correction is to come i'd expect a quite sharp one.
That said price needs to actually break triangle down and to retest 1600$, before i feel entitled to speak more about correction.

A new long term negative trend has been initiated, technically that is, but with the chain split upcoming this will probably be a very fast and deep crash from which there will be no recovering.

As quoted a deep crash might happen, but in a short there will be a recovery. If you see the past price variation chart you can see this. The price crashes steeper and in a short it retains the drop and stabilizes around an intermediary value and this price becomes a stable price for a long time with minor fluctuations.

Good morning gentlemen.

Price at 1662$, lower edge of the triangle being tested now.

https://i.imgur.com/3zAzm5W.gif

Bitcoin's price is growing so high that is just unbelievable! On January it was 700$ and now we are 1700$, but it passed only few months. To me the answer is clear - bitcoin is going to fly high and it's necessary to stay on the side at least a part of that bitcoins that I earn.

Quick recap: triangle broken to the upside on May 17th, with increased volatility.
Accordingly to described strategy i bought back at 1770$, after break up.
Almost no risk taken.

I forecasted a 300 - 600$ move, we're 350$ up already from there.
Spiking up to 2310$ not excluded, but it's time to start securing profit now.

My analysis comes to a similar conclusion than ft73's (secure your profits in the next days), but because of another reason.

The price at Bitstamp is about to break out from the upward channel and changing to a steeper rise. Probably that means that we're in the last stage of the rally/bubble. But I think it can go even higher as $2300, a logical psychological barrier would be $2500. So a possible target is $2450-90.

Still watch out for fundamental news. If there is a Segwit compromise or a supermajority for an UASF, $3000 is pretty a safe bet.

By the end of May we either hit $2500 or go down below $2000, but if we hit $2500 then $2800 is in the next orders. I'd like to know Bitcoin whales with 500K Bitcoins holdings, how many have they sold so far?

This is the beauty of Bitcoin when I buy at $2000 if I never sell lower then eventually a buyer will buy from me for more than $2000 lets say $2050 and then if he doesn't sell at lower price then next person will buy for $2100.
Think about it you noobs, when you are trading just don't panic, I have sold many times many coins in panic because I was shortsighted and couldn't see even a week later.
Don't sell with a loss and support is there and they will buy when they see there is no other better price.

2310$ was my topmost target for this leg up, i'm not saying it won't move higher later.
Yet i think a correction will happen before going substantially higher.

Already corrected to 2050$ so far, here it gets some support.
however i think a further visit to 2000$ ( or slightly less ) is likely, then we'll see depending on reaction.

Advice: this is a bubble gents, don't get fooled by the fact it acts (relatively) slower than before ( e.g. 2013 ).
if you're willing to ride its last stages use caution or you'll hurt yourself badly.
Use analysis as well as common sense, bubbles are ultimately irrational.

My intermediate target for this move up was almost matched at 2220$.

Still going up.
Will it reach its (supposedly) final target in the  2300$ +/- 20$ area ?

Maybe.
taking profit all the way up.

Bitcoin has some problems but the problems can be solved, it is not like there are not solutions being proposed to the miners or the community what it happens is that we are in the middle of a very difficult fight, and no solution is being accepted as of yet.

LOL if you guys hold that bitcoin than talking too much because the price was totally dumped that day better to have an excuse when you already sold out your coins buying and selling for short term it is like your wasting money for the fee's of bitcoins and bitcoin now can't handle the transaction everyday.

Another triangle about to break.
i see declining volume and a bearish divergence.

Meaning we are going to see a somewhat boring phase now? Its currently holding at $2200, which I think will be the bearish price for sometime now. So I think its much better to hold now than sell and just wait for a few price spike in the future before dumping again.

Until now, today and yesterday the price broke out of all triangles to the upside.

My short-term target is $2500, then I expect a continuation of the downtrend, or - in the case of bullish fundamental news like a imminent Segwit activation - at least a double top at $2700+. Another leg of the bubble is then possible that possibly will drive us in the $3500-4000 area.

I can somewhat agree with your statement. I however can't rule out another sub $2000 dip as the overall buy support seems to be on the weaker side from my point of view. If you look at the fluctuations, it's clear that the market is searching for a direction, but at the same time also remains alert, as traders may be ready to trigger another sell off if the price breaks through the crucial support levels.

A small "dip" and we're now back on track for a bull run.

Yep, that's also what I observed. There is a stalemate between bulls and bears now, probably looking for positive or negative news about Segwit.

2456$ (Bitstamp USD price) seems for now to hold as a resistance to the upside. If the price does not break this level in the next 2-3 days, I expect the next short-term "leg" to be bearish and leave us at least in the $2000 area, if not further down. Not much lower than 1580-1600 though, that level should hold - but then if ETH is not falling, too , we will have for the first time an equality between both market caps.

Maybe we are in a classical "Sell in May" scenario and the bull run will be resumed in autumn, when hopefully a scaling solution is achieved.

As most users mentioned the upcoming short term expectation and the reality is the crossing of $2500. Same as that happened in the past time of reaching close to $2800. Once it reaches the price will be moving faster than what people think, so it's good for users who expect making an profit in short time its good to buy and hold.