What's next (short term) ?

[Oralmat]

Now surprisingly, bitcoin go up more instead of down, You can see bitcoin is here at $892, near about $900, and you are talking about bitcoin would be come down within 2 or 3 days. I also think about it, even i think in the next month bitcoin might be come down at $500 to $600. But surprisingly, it couldn't happen.
But it is also good for us, i mean it a good chance to make money more.   

[1714515719]

1714515719

[1714515719]

1714515719

[1714515719]

1714515719

[1714515719]

1714515719

[BitLover001]

tbh, if we cannot stay upper than 900$ today, I really think we need to prepare to go down very quickly.
we have a resistance at 900 that we need to go over very soon or...

[BitLover001]

895$ right now
push push we must be over 900 to finish that day

[d5000]

900 isn't that important (we've already broken it again). The important region is $930-940, because there was one of the last important "local highs".

@slapper: Thanks for mentioning Chinese New Year, that could indeed affect the price short-term. This year, it is on January 28. So we have less than a week still for a price increase.

In the case of a rally now (I think it's possible because of the fast recovery in the last days and because some view the Trump inauguration as a bullish event, but not mandatory) it's possible that, because of the Chinese New Year, we will stay below of the old All Time High of $1163 USD. That could be even interpreted as a double top in the making - a bearish sign.

[ft73]

Strong possibility of another leg down, judging by my indicators.
First target about 880$, but can spike further down to 840$.
Then we'll see.

[Slark]

Strong possibility of another leg down, judging by my indicators.
First target about 880$, but can spike further down to 840$.
Then we'll see.

It is not about technical indicators where you can something influencing the price. Indicators didn't show us current decline because trend was bullish.
That is, until China stepped in again and started to mess things up with their exchange inspections and suspended withdrawals.
And as always Chinese traders exaggerated response caused price to crash.

[ft73]

Strong possibility of another leg down, judging by my indicators.
First target about 880$, but can spike further down to 840$.
Then we'll see.

It is not about technical indicators where you can something influencing the price. Indicators didn't show us current decline because trend was bullish.
That is, until China stepped in again and started to mess things up with their exchange inspections and suspended withdrawals.
And as always Chinese traders exaggerated response caused price to crash.

Not sure about that.
It ultimately boils down to opinions.

In my opinion it was the last part of the uptrend being abnormal (=not sustainable) and we're now going back to normal.
The Chinese news basically ignited a healthy correction and made it happen at a faster pace, but it was due already.

Moreover many people are concerned by the China exchanges withdrawal locking and blame PBOC for that.
I fear instead the locking has to do with liquidity problems on those exchanges and having experienced the Gox failure i would recommend being much cautious in this phase.

[ft73]

For what's worth, just a humble heads-up.
You'd better lock in profit and wait.



Volatility about to explode within a couple days.
Several hundreds $ sudden price movement ahead.

[Clement Kaliyar]

Volatility about to explode within a couple days.
Several hundreds $ sudden price movement ahead.

Can you be more specific,what do you expect the price of bitcoin will be and what kind of explosion are you expecting and are you really expecting a bull or a bear market,i am really expecting for a correction after all these rally and i just want to know what your thoughts are because i am still confused about your analysis .

[DeathAngel]

I'd love to see us break above $2000 & stay there but I think there will be a lot of resistance if/when we get near $2000.

[Fredomago]

I'd love to see us break above $2000 & stay there but I think there will be a lot of resistance if/when we get near $2000.

because of those people who see opportunity they will sell their holdings and dumped it but if we able to stand up
and keep this much bigger ath will be expected, we just needed to hold and follow the flow long hold will be more
profitable.

[ft73]

Volatility about to explode within a couple days.
Several hundreds $ sudden price movement ahead.

Can you be more specific,what do you expect the price of bitcoin will be and what kind of explosion are you expecting and are you really expecting a bull or a bear market,i am really expecting for a correction after all these rally and i just want to know what your thoughts are because i am still confused about your analysis .

I am expecting a correction as well, personally.
Yet i don't want to fool myself, and i'm not willing to see what's not there.
I'm not going to shout hodl nor sell, plenty of people are doing that already.

Chart so far pictures a big triangle about to break. That will brings in volatility soon.
keep an eye on that, look for volume pick-up.

Price may move by about 300 - 600$ from here, not necessarily in one single leg.
Probably 2 - 3 or more (zig-zag).

RSI and volume evaluation so far tell me it's going to break down, but picture may change quickly.

This is a situation where caution wins in my opinion, hence my heads-up.
Traders often underestimate the risk and overestimate their skill.

Worst case i can afford losing some potential profit by buying back after a hypothetic break-up of the triangle.
So far i've liquidated 50% of my BTC assets already and i will adjust my position after triangle breaking.
This way i don't care if it will break up or down, no blind guess needed.

It may work for other people as well.

[LuanX3]

Volatility about to explode within a couple days.
Several hundreds $ sudden price movement ahead.

Can you be more specific,what do you expect the price of bitcoin will be and what kind of explosion are you expecting and are you really expecting a bull or a bear market,i am really expecting for a correction after all these rally and i just want to know what your thoughts are because i am still confused about your analysis .

I am expecting a correction as well, personally.
Yet i don't want to fool myself, and i'm not willing to see what's not there.
I'm not going to shout hodl nor sell, plenty of people are doing that already.

Chart so far pictures a big triangle about to break. That will brings in volatility soon.
Price may move by about 300 - 600$ from here, not necessarily in one single leg.
Probably 2 - 3 or more.

RSI and volume evaluation so far tell me it's going to break down, but picture may change quickly.

This is a situation where caution wins in my opinion, hence my heads-up.
Traders often underestimate the risk and overestimate their skill.

Worst case i can afford losing some potential profit by buying back after a hypothetic break-up of the triangle.
So far i've liquidated 50% of my BTC assets already and i will adjust my position after triangle breaking.
This way i don't care if it will break up or down, no blind guess needed.

It may work for other people as well.

Then let's shout out Buy! I still do hope it doesn't go down anymore. But if it does I will totally buy and will horde it next time it drops to a comfortable level that I am sure that it won't go down anymore. But yeah, I also believe there will be a correction, the prices are too damn high.

[ft73]

Currently trend is extremely weak, a dip may occur soon.

In case it goes down deep: there's a strong area of support between about 1320 and 1400$.
Worst case i think it won't break under 1200$, unless for a sudden spike.

Don't hurry though.

[rajasumi3]

Nowadays i guess bitcoins are becoming too much short term as the price of bitcoin is changing very randomly and it might happen that in one night the price of bitcoins falls down very much below.

[ft73]

Keep an eye on this chart.
Interesting stuff.

[~Bitcoin~]

Nowadays i guess bitcoins are becoming too much short term as the price of bitcoin is changing very randomly and it might happen that in one night the price of bitcoins falls down very much below.

Bitcoin price was always volatile so this is not something new right now. But if you keep on holding as passive trader, you will not loss anything due to all this huge daily price swing. To make profit with day trading, all this swings are necessary and almost all trading assets have volatility in price.

[ft73]

I've just re-run my backtesting tool, running some raw trading strategy across 180 days.
9 trades done, 8 of which were profitable and 1 at loss.

It outperformed the buy and hold strategy by about 18.9%, which is interesting.
Yet it can well be totally random and it's difficult to actually miss a trade when prices go almost steadily up.

The only think i consider worth is that the tool closed its last trade yesterday, @1784$.
I wonder if he's right.  We'll see.

17/11/2016 - Buy @735.24
23/11/2016 - Sell @740.18

30/11/2016 - Buy @742.06
07/12/2016 - Sell @763.99

12/12/2016 - Buy @776.90
06/01/2017 - Sell @893.89

16/01/2017 - Buy @831.81
24/01/2017 - Sell @885.47

26/01/2017 - Buy @914.83
08/02/2017 - Sell @1050.40

16/02/2017 - Buy @1032.70
07/03/2017 - Sell @1233.05

14/03/2017 - Buy @1245.86
16/03/2017 - Sell @1172.62 ***

26/03/2017 - Buy @960.00
13/04/2017 - Sell @1172.91

20/04/2017 - Buy @1234.19
14/05/2017 - Sell @1784.00

[richardsNY]

Nowadays i guess bitcoins are becoming too much short term as the price of bitcoin is changing very randomly and it might happen that in one night the price of bitcoins falls down very much below.

Bitcoin is every type of investment that you want. Main point of importance is that short term volatility only matters if you're trading. If you're just holding your coins for a long period of time, why would you get bothered by the volatility? Doesn't make any sense. I have been holding my coins all the way till now. If you look at how much massive pumps and dumps we have gone through in the last years, how much impact did it have on me? Absolutely nothing. Results in the long term is the only thing that matters....

[ft73]

In the meantime ...



Breaking tonight or tomorrow?

My custom indicator on daily ( basically a revised and weighted MACD ) says it's time to go down ( blue = signal ).



Pretty similar figure, if compared to Jan 5th 2017 or Feb 7th 2017 or June 19th 2016.
In these cases a sharper correction followed, whatever the size.


Meaningful or not?
Don't know, time will tell.

EDIT: pictures are not at same scale.