Bitcoin Forum

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No.

your greed says no, you logic says yes

And that's assuming no infrastructural debacles. Denial of Service attacks are only going to increase to further affect liquidity. Some folks do NOT want Bitcoin to succeed. The unwritten rule behind Bitcoin success is superior technological prowess behind the means of liquidity (i.e. exchanges). With FinCEN essentially requiring local transactors to register as an exchanger, liquidity is going to rely even more on exchanges than before.

Wow I am struck in awe by the beauty of that blue line just randomly moving across the chart. True piece of art right there.

that is the real rendline bulls

accept it

the reason the trend strays from this line is due to
1- GREED
2 - MANIPULATION
3- GREED,

TO ALL THOSE WIHSING TO BUY BACK IN, WAIT FOR THE PRICE T HIT THE TRENDLINE AND BUY AT THAT PRICE

WONT BE TOO SOON,
WHAT GOES UP, COMES DOWN

Welcome to my ignore list nkspace.

I think they should require people to do an IQ test first before allowing them to post here. I'm sure the amount of garbage posts would crash way below the trendline. This forum is being overrun by people who can't even form a coherent sentence and think writing in CAPS makes them look intelligent.

PERA THAT IS NOT A NORMAL LINE! IM SORRY, THAT IS A BULLS LINE, NOT A NORMAL RATIONAL TREND

No, this is the real trendline:

http://imgur.com/DhYTxBO.png

It goes up by about 10 cents every month. Based on this, we should hit about $7 by the end of this year. If we're above that line, bitcoin is overvalued.

sarcasm? thats a stupid graph, as bitcoin has recieved press coveragte, wehreas before it hadn't as much, thats not a real trend line, however my one is

cricket, awefully quite here, where are these bulls? somethings you can't disagree with i suppose

Hi.

I'm a bull.

I also have charts:

http://tonycoleby.com/shared/2013-04-26_bitcoin_growth.png

We seem to agree though the placing of your line seems almost arbitrary.

Also, because of that line I'm bullish long-term but you are bearish short-term.

It's the old half-full or half-empty thing again isn't it? ;)

Edit: I updated the chart with today's noon UTC data.

Hmmm.  I don't get it.  The graph shows Bitcoin trending up.  Like any market, people are taking that into account in buying Bitcoin so paying more than the trendline.

Isn't that logical? 

any arbitrary line can be formed by two points. you need three or more for robustness.

that being said, i tend to agree that said trendline seems viable.

--arepo

IIRC, FinCEN ruled pretty clearly that it doesn't give a shit as long as you aren't:
1) a third party transferring BTC from party A to party B as part of a transfer of fiat (e.g. exchanges and outfits like BitPay), or
2) a miner who sells the coins they mined for fiat.

Regular users of BTC (who use it to trade goods and services) are explicitly OK'd.

Is the OP really implying that a linear model is the most accurate price model?

lmao.

nksace is just trying to spread FUD because he wants to buy in at 100. sorry you missed the boat. another "bitter bear" creating multiple threads to no avail. sad.

I don't care about bulls or bears, but damn is that ignore button ever getting more and more colorful...

Lol, this is the most random thing I've read all week.

This.

So...what your trendline is saying is...it should be the price it is today in September or so. So by December it will be higher. So buy, right?

Insert obligatory xkcd:

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png


Trendlines are just for initial research. What do the fundamentals say?

WTF IS A TENDLINE?   :-\

In technical analysis, people stare at charts and look for patterns. They come up with weird things like dead-cat-bounce and weird tools like candlesticks. I never trust them for more than a cursory sorting of stocks. The fundamental numbers like debt, assets, etc will give you a clearer picture of the health of a company. I'm not sure what the fundamentals are for bitcoin.

IF one uses a linear TRENDLINE:

When will the inherent worth of one BTC = 1000 USD?

Begin here;

April 2011 ca $2, April 2013 ca $139.

So (roughly) $68.50 per year inherent increase.

1000 - 139 = 861

861/68.5 = 12.569 years.

It's a "long" few years according to steady linear growth of the INHERENT bitcoin worth being 1000 USD. Again spikes could see the ATH above 1000 several years and multiple times before the inherent worth catches up.

For example the inherent worth of BTC being 266 USD will occur in;

266 - 139 = 127

127/68.5 = 1.854 years.

Also in about a year and 10 months or February 2015 - but we have already spiked that value once in 2013.

"You've got to know when to hold them."

Don't be a gambler, be smart, buy bitcoins.

N.B. If the US Federal reserve note crashes, 1 BTC will be 1000 USD much faster than 12.6 years.

A graph I drew a few days ago, take whatever you want from it.

https://i.imgur.com/WUl9EcD.png

Open image in new tab to get full size

This.

I wouldn't trust any TA without a confidence interval, a log-likelihood, classifier accuracy, or anything of the like. I ESPECIALLY wouldn't trust an analysis (or a speculator) that claims they do not need statistics.

Doesn't matter if you're using Morse wavelets or drawing triangles if all you do is look at the margin and cherry pick.

we're actually hovering a bit above that lower trendline right now. my analysis has come to similar conclusions, the lower trendline could remain intact.

--arepo

Bitcoin is increasing logarithmically, the real trendline should be plotted on a log scale.

It is ... you see it everywhere in nature ... straight lines ... slight curvature ... nothing much else really  ::)

Wow OP is this your first day learning how to draw a line?

Not sure if you're trolling or not.  As a scientist I would like to point out that straight lines are particularly unnatural.  Exponential, parabolic, and ESPECIALLY periodic shapes show up much more in nature, and when 'straight' lines are present they are usually not really straight but instead an approximation (for example sin(x) is approximately a straight line for very small x).

The human visual system is also incredibly good at picking out straight lines (especially parallel ones) for that very reason--they signify something unnatural created by humans (which when humans were evolving was a very important thing to notice).  If you are skeptical see Steven Pinker's 'How the Mind Works'.

I was being sarcastic ... hence the 'roll eyes' . Not trolling though (I don't think !)
Interesting  info about our ability to pick out straight lines ... not heard that one before

This is the trend line I like:

https://i.imgur.com/x2cv7kk.jpg

50 day exponential moving average.
With this I can extrapolate to $60,000 bitcoins in the next 6 months.

So, looks like I'm a TA expert now.. I will start a blog!

https://i.imgur.com/0LkKAif.jpg

It's getting sad; the total lack of moderation now on these forums.

Trolls spamming like crazy. NKSpace 1 new useless trollbear post per day. How is this not spam??

oh come on, don't be so serious, op was obviously joking ...

am i wrong?

Check his history. He's serious and simply trying to bring price down... and failing miserably.

oh ok,

I just thought that nobody could take that "drawing" seriously :)

Banking systems are collapsing. The world financial systems are not doing at all well and this guy is talking "trendlines"???

Sry, but thats a dismal "analysis".

Try again.

OP turned up and trolled for a few days until he was payed (quite well) to go away...

Lol seriouly. You've cat to be kitten meh...

What makes you think the trend is linear? Fit an S curve (exponential growth with eventual saturation), then we talk.

OP is a dumbass lol. Took 13 BTC and ran like a pansy haha

http://s24.postimg.org/ebxaaicc5/20130430_all_data_log_chart.png

Looks like we're above the trend. Although maybe it is steeper now because of mining reward halfing?

Maybe you can answer a simple question, what are you trending? I mean, what is BTC? Currency, Commodity, Stock, disruptive technology, protocol, etc.

TA is great, we all use it, but to overly depend on it with something that we can't easily define, is cheapening what it is that is BTC. What if some really big news comes out? e.g., Pay Pal becomes funding mechanism for BTC. What do you think will happen to the "price" of BTC?

TA has been said to basically describe human behavior (e.g. support lines). Now, since there are so many variables with BTC (see that short list above), again, it is dangerous to try to pigeon hole what BTC is.

Be very very careful over emphasizing TA and yet know when to use it.

Do people really trade anything based on nonsense like this line?   What theory actually predicts this? 

From the perspective of the chart it is quite simple, the trend is the price of a bitcoin in US dollars as traded on MT Gox exchange. Bitcoin is not currency or commodity, it is money, like gold and silver. Unlike currencies it will also function as a store of value.

I'm not going to defend TA yet again, if you don't like it, then perhaps you shouldn't bother with the speculation forum.

I spent several hours on this TA and found the real trendline

https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTsaycxFsSFgCgAnvMyQh2AWEMTWdX6Gnd5Vn6iVSmHDjnuE0uDog

I said "TA is great, we all use it, ..." so I'm not smacking it down and I USE IT. I think my point was clear. We don't know what BTC is, not even the government will define it for us. But you know. Maybe you should not be so touchy about a question, not even a criticism...  I was just bringing up the Black Swan nature of BTC and not asking you to defend TA, just merely open up a bit regarding the possibilities.

I don't really follow why you want the govt to define bitcoins ! The less the govt has to do with it the better. But like I said, for my purposes I mainly focus on the monetary aspects of it which for speculating on price is all I feel the need to consider.

Sorry if my reply seemed touchy not your fault.

The problem about BTCUSD trends is that we cannot predict USD……

Thx as I wasn't trying to give you a hard time.

Regarding the government defining BTC: If they define what we are, then we can start laying the groundwork and developing a plan (expansion, legal, tax, etc.) for going forward. I do see your point though and I agree the less government the better. But the danger is that they leave things gray and pick and attack as they choose. Now, maybe this doesn't hold up in a court of law (but who knows since corruption runs deep) but it could slow us down due to raising the fear level. That said, it is beautiful how even with the uncertainty of the DHS thing, the price quickly rebounded.

Get some popcorn and enjoy the show... (Really, no matter what happens - though I think we are mostly ok - this is one hell of a ride. It is not everyday (or decade or century) that something like this comes along and challenges the established "norms"/corruption  ;D)

I predict USD to do what they have done ever since the federal reserve was created. They will lose more and more purchasing power.

I predict various govts of the world will attempt to block bitcoins in a selection of inept ways. Everything the govt tries to do usually has the opposite effect and in this case will probably just make bitcoins stronger and more resilient. Part of their strategy might be through defining various dubious legal definitions which won't make a difference.

I'm more worried about what bankers will attempt. In my view various internet debt based schemes will be pushed onto us and they will keep trying and trying different variations until they succeed. Ripples being the best example at this time. They will try and undermine or control bitcoins via deceipt and manipulation replacing bitcoins with IOU's for bitcoins and putting hidden quantities of bitcoins locked into gateways.     

I held the same belief, regarding governments attacking BTC, but I'm recently changed my stance. I don't think governments can react any where quick enough to stop BTC. It has been around for 4 years and just now does the DHS make a very very minor move, which doesn't even look like it was against BTC. Just simply Gox missed something.

Banks - I don't think BTC is the threat we think it is to banks, not anytime soon. Banks make their money from fraction reserver lending, and BTC, in its current carnation is not at all a threat to that. Maybe that develops, but it is no where near touching the banks pockets. Rather, I see banks using it to improve the speed of international transactions and such.

BTC is a threat to credit card companies and companies like Western Union (the latter of which is doing a good job failing on its own and the former seems to be getting on consumers nerves with their near monopolistic control on interest rates.) But even the credit card companies make their money on loans, so again, I don't see BTC effecting them anytime soon, in that regard.

Now, as BTC evolves I do see things growing from it which naturally takes out unfair monetary business practices. We are so early in the game. What happens when BTC shows that a deflationary currency is the way to go? That is a threat to the banks! But, by the time it shows it's head, the writing is on the wall. Really, BTC is a gift from the Universe/Nature, of which we are a part. We were just the corrective mechanism allowed to plant it.  ;)

This is the trend line I've been going off of. It fits quiet well with the last month or so.

Excellent analysis  :)

The european central bank has admitted bitcoin is a threat to banking
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/virtualcurrencyschemes201210en.pdf

Afbitcoins - You linked a 55 page doc  :o, (dated Oct 2012).
I don't have time right now to read the doc (thanks for linking it, hard to believe I see no mention of that doc anywhere that I've seen.)

I see 3 mentions of the word threat, 2 of which say anything, as follows:

p.33

p. 37

Interesting and great news (This is what BTC is about...)

edit - Got to love the name of the pdf - "Virtual Currency Schemes"   :D

Trend analysis in Microsoft Word?

Where the hell is your line anchored on the left?

And have you heard of log scale?

Thanks for a good laugh!

this :D

Yes should have said they see it as a 'potential' threat. It is a long document, quite entertaining in some ways, they refer to fiat money as real money. And that only if central banks issue it is it proper money etc. obviously i'm paraphrasing.

Well, we can't fool ourselves into thinking they are unaware of it or that they don't see it as a threat (and won't eventually come after it when other indirect methods fail - and they will). That would be silly. Banking is the center of the western world and all the wars that go with it. Ideally as money leaves that system and goes into systems that are more compassionate, we will see change. It will take time, though their system of banking as currently constructed is in danger of popping. There only hope is to have people believe the upward stock market and growing money supply and zero % interest rates are a good thing. That seems to be changing in many peoples minds. I'd say they are losing the propaganda war. Between now and next war that system can pop and I hope enough people high up in the military don't go along with another BS war.

So, as that system goes it might really be too late to act on the BTC one. After all, it is going to look terrible going after a system that is holding value, people based, etc. Luckily there isn't a "new world order" or one world government to make things easier for these criminals. We have the Universe on our side.  ;)

Regarding the point of this thread, BTC is too much to just analyze with a trendline. Though I favor watching it with a logarithmic one...

IAS

I like your thinking, there still seems to be lots of signs that the push for global government is still on track though and theres still a mass of braindead sheeple happily going along with it and totally unaware they are being robbed blind by the system. (to fund wars etc as you say). Truth is a powerful force though and the internet is shining a lot of truth and light on us.

I really get the feeling (and from listening to a variety of people with some "inside" information - podcasts and the like - if you believe them.) that there are people high up that are not at all going along with TPTB. There really is no one in charge but there are some people (or should I say corporations) that can exert GREAT might. The thing is, China, Russia and other countries have something to say about it. For sure there are proxy wars going on as well.

There certainly is still a push for Global Government, no doubt. And looking at their control slowly slipping really does make me think a false flag (yes, another one) is in the works. But, they rarely go off perfectly and the longer they wait, one might argue, the more we see (due to better technology, rising consciousness, etc.)

No fear and going forward. Fear has been a controlling mechanism for too long. And you can just see how people are learning to let it go, slowly, but it is happening.

If you find something you believe in, even if it is still a "part" of the system (a bit like Bitcoin, in a regulated sense anyway), it doesn't matter. You put your heart and soul into it and don't look back.

We are all a part of this revolution, be it of the mind, the BTC, or whatever...

Yes I think there was a lot more unity among TPTB not so long ago than there appears now. Cracks beginning to form. The tighter they try and enclose us in their fist the more we slip through their fingers like sand. A false flag does seem possible. Personally I was half expecting a dirty bomb in London or something like that during the olympics, thankfully it never materialised. Maybe they are aware its harder and harder to get away with it in the internet age.

What's happening is the environment surrounding society is changing thanks to the Internet and other technologies. With a different mix of nutrients, different bacteria will grow in a petri dish. With different technological factors like ubiquitous cameras, broadcasting, and all news and trends and old assumptions being fine-tooth-combed in totally free, anonymous debate, the nature of the structures that survive in society will inevitably change as well.

See this for an elaboration of this argument: http://mises.org/Community/forums/t/8889.aspx

The trend is massively toward decentralization, and Bitcoin is the coup de grâce, the tidal wave that has yet to hit shore. Moreover, each revolution enables the next, bigger revolution to happen even faster: agricultural revolution --> industrial revolution --> information revolution (the Internet) --> financial revolution (Bitcoin, built on top of the Internet) --> power stucture revolution (new governance-related stuff built on top of Bitcoin (smart contracts, trustless escrow, insurance, BMOT, private online arbitration, fully anonymous businesses like SR, etc.)).

Though mathematically it's just exponential growth, the pace of changes in the coming years (months??*) will feel like a singularity as the speed of change starts to cross certain human thresholds.


*That it might happen this soon is part of the whole point that the change is going to start happening at a pace that will perpetually surprise almost everyone. Get used to anticipating being surprised.

Nice link, will be delving into that more later on..